Intelligence Memorandum
Relations between Albania and Greece have deteriorated sharply
following a violent border attack in April, the latest incident in three years of
strained bilateral ties. Greece has stepped up accusations of Albanian "repression"
of its ethnic-Greek minority, while Tirana fears Athens has designs on the Greek
Greek allegations that Tirana is systematically violating the rights of the
ethnic-Greek minority with the aim of driving it out of Albania appear to lack
,: 0'~~no~ PR pattN ;q~lll~o'a
community,-concerns regarding Macedonia with other principals
and enc -ra?e them to-focus. on remedial steps (e.g., modest
The Next Silken problem : Neoedonia:en4?
he Albanian Qineitien,
1. xoticni That 'you, consider raising Intelligence
?::.'. ?: relief) the US could take to head off 's crisis that could.
Quickly ignite the Albanian prollem throughout the region..
2 Background,. This is deja vu all over again. The
Directorate of Intelligence
Intelligence Memorandum
Office of European Ar:alysis
10 May 1994
Prime Minister Berov's 17-month-old government of technocrats appears to
be running out of steam.
? Berov's recent heart problem has renewed talk about early national
elections. His hospitalization, however, has barely affected overnment
policy, which is influenced mostly by the ex-
Communist Socialist Party (BSP), t e argest party m par Lament and
Berov's most important supporter. _
1. Since 1992, President Zhelyu Zhelev has presided over anon-partisan
govemment of technocrats headed by Prime Minister Lyuben Berov, a former economic
adviser to Zhelev. The Berov government, however, has a weak mandate because of its
non-elected status and increasingly has come under attack from the anti-communist Union
of Democratic Forces (UDF) for its lack of progress on reform; Berov has survived seven
no-confidence votes by progressively narrower margins. As Berov's situation becomes
(b)(1)
~b)~3)
Albania is facing a difficult vansition to democracy and a mazket economy after nearly
five decades of rigid Stalinist rule following World War II.
-- Former President Alia, the hand-picked successor of former dictator Enver
Hoxha, grudgingly introduced limited political and economic reforms in
1990.
The Democratic Patty--under its charismatic leader, Sali Berisha--won
control of parliament in elections in March 1992 and subsequently elected
help, Turkey, the only Islamic
country in NA I U, has periodically provided instructors for Albanian
units and is educating a few Albanian officers in its military academy:
Few of the NATO Allies have devoted any attention to Albania's
security needs, and Tirana a to turn to the Islamic world for
training and exercises,
Albania is struggling to create a credible military force after decades of isolation but
cannot afford to modernize its armed forces with its own resources--defense spending
Romania views itself as an island of stability in the Balkans, threatened by violent regional
conflicts and at the mercy of powerful European states such as Russia and Germany. Bucharest's
Hungary: The Regional Rival
Most Romanians consider Hungary the primary threat to their country.
Bucharest is suspicious of Budapest's intentions regarding Transylvania,
home to some 1.6 million Hungarians and the site of ethnic riots in 1990.
A bilateral friendship treaty remains stalled over Romania's insistence on
Intelligence.Report
1. President Ion Iliescu presides over a loose and increasingly fragile
parliamentary coalition composed of the former Communist Party of Social
Democracy in Romania (PDSR) and several small ultranationalist and communist
parties. The refomust opposition parties, led by Emil Cons[antinescu's Democratic
Convention of Romania (CDR), recently intensified their campaign against the
government of Prime Minister Nicolae Vacaroiu, straining his already weak
Prime Minister Vacaroiu is seeking external support for restructuring Romanian
industry, but three years of gradual reform have prolonged Romania's painful transition,
squandering resources and delaying recovery. A 1994-1995 IMF agreement commits Romania
to accelerate privatization and restructuring, but growing poverty risks undermining support
for a market economy.
Economy Bottoming Out
1988.
Industrial production grew 1.3 percent in 1993.
Agricultural production grew 12 percent in 1993, the first increase since
Crntrzl Inlelligena Agency
willing to sacrifice political support to tackle Romania's economic problems is unlikely.
Existing Structure A Recipe for Stagnation
The current regime rests on two pillars, the PDSR, which is lukewarm toward reform, and
several anti-reform extremist parties. The PDSR, composed mainly of former Communists who
support President Iliescu, and the extremists, hold 250 out of 484 parliamentary seats. The
PDSR's plurality in the last election--based largely on support from peasants and workers--
FOIA
