THE NEXT BALKAN PROBLEM: MACEDONIA AND THE ALBANIAN QUESTION

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: EASTERN EUROPE
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005657405
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: July 14, 2011
• Case Number: F-2011-01070
• Publication Date: July 30, 1994

,: 0'~~no~ PR pattN ;q~lll~o'a
community,-concerns regarding Macedonia with other principals
and enc -ra?e them to-focus. on remedial steps (e.g., modest
The Next Silken problem : Neoedonia:en4?
he Albanian Qineitien,
1. xoticni That 'you, consider raising Intelligence
?::.'. ?: relief) the US could take to head off 's crisis that could.
Quickly ignite the Albanian prollem throughout the region..
2 Background,. This is deja vu all over again. The
=2nt6iligioce'.CortmuuI3j~~1ty.in 1990 wait unable to convince US
policy, makSd'bf''ta'inevitabllity and destructiveness of
YugoaTavia5.s, brsakuj~.-and the -need to help~anage this
problem ea rly.':'SJmilarly, policy-makers hdvd?not
acknowledged??tu)e'seriousness of deteriorating conditions. in
Macedonid ancb'tbe.praapect that the collapse of the Qligorov
goverpfiept ,igotk he silmoering sAlbanian Questions
and dtaw i.n nor onip Tit a but also Athens, Sofia,'
Belgrade, Priatina 'and possibly even Ankara.' Numerous
Intelligence ?aaseesments,-- the 1993 NIB on Macedonia,
Ma 1 94 U date Memo, as well as
have underlined the deteriorating economy an
? retgtJune .between?.tae ethnic. Albanian minority and
Macedonian majority. -
3. Recent diplomatic reporting underscores our win
judgments that conditions -- since the i'd(losition of'the
Alt. portions classified SECRET
LAPPROVED FOR RELEASE - CIA INFO^ DATE: 07-07-2011
 SUBJECTi The Next Balkan Lout, Macedonia and the
Albanian Question -
down,. Macedonian officials??aer..;ACrwinglf 5Lri4ent is
i, telling?US -officials,they peed aeaistanoa to present social
strife-and further:itiaias within the coalition government
that .could enrage radical ethnic Albanian militants and
embolden ultranationalist Macedonians. Should the Wait
decide to tighten sanctions against Serbia, this will
undermine Macedonians stability, Moreover.'. the
controversial national census taken this month will provide
another opportunity-for Albanians to attack the Gligorov
government and further alienate the Albanian minority
(already physically separate) from the Macedonian majority)'.. ti's
4. Macedonia; the poorest republic of the former
Yugoslavia (with a $$50 per capita income) already has two
strikes against its survival. First, 'the economic sanctions
imposed on Serbia have severely damaged its economy, adding '
huge*transport fees on top of its already limited exports
and making it entirely dependent on tt`ade routes through
neighboring states like Greece (roughly 80 percent through.
Thessaloniki). Athens' imposition, of a trade embargo has
only added to the economic pain, and the Gligorov government
has no good options.. It can compromise-on its name, flag
and constitutional provisions to get the Greek embargo
lifted and then probably be ousted by a vote of no ?
confidence or limp through until it is unseated in the fell.
elections. Alternatively, and more likely, it will 'hang
tough.and watch economic conditions lead to a steady .
breakdown in inter communal relations.. Either way, ultra
i nationalists could profit from these developments and spur
the ethnic Albanian minority toward a blatantly secessionist .y4
movement that could bring other simmering Albanian 'issues
into play.
Greek-Albanian relations have deteriorated through .a
sera of border incidents and mutual claims of
government mistreatment. of their minorities. 1-'
could be set off by events in Macedonia, ptompting;;..
greater repression by Belgrade or encourage militsnC .,'`.
ethnic Albanians to disregard Augova's moderato
leadership.
? Greece and other neighboring states are totally.
unprepared to deal with massive refuges flows that:iight?
 EUBJECC z
Albanian
The Next Balkan Problem: Macedonia and the
Question
.result from a go ernment-.collapse or ethnic.violenni
-.rising nationalist .entieianti throughout the region could
drive Athens, Solis, Titans, and even Ankara to take
sides quickly in a spreading Albanian crisis.
5. The irony of the situation is that a modest amount of
aid might make a huge difference in stabilizing a tiny
Macedonia (with a GNP of less than $2 billion). For
instance, diplomatic reporting suggests that current
violations of sanctions -- which has. so angered Washington's.
- is earning Skopje a paltry $50 million annually. The
tragedy is that very little aid has gone to Skopje, since it
has achieved independence.. Only $150 million was approved
by the EU in 1992, most of.it hpmahitarian assistance that
does not directly deal with the problems created by the .
sanctions and embargo regimes. Lase than half of the aid
has been dispersed and. Greece now. blocks any further EU
assistance from going to Macedonia. With the EU blocked by
Athena, European institutions will not be much help.. The
recent. European Court of justice decision in favor of Greece
on the embargo issue only, strengthens Athend' recalcitrance.
s..
6 Moreover, few NON are working with the.9kopje
government to improve its financial *situation-I
representation in the IFIs was also late ih coming because
Skopje was not recognized until recently t* most European
members in deference to Akhepe, sensitivity. 'llbre?ironic,
even the IMF has not made any allowance in its guideline.
-cu-rent government. The Otis not totally helpless.
? The US could develop a modest bilateral aailstadce
program with Skopje to help stabilize its economy and
Serbian sanctions or the Greek embargo. Greed" a blocked
BU approval of an IMP stabilization fund. Blockage ef'such
international assistance, however, has not stopped other
institutions like the European Investment Blink from
demanding timely payment'of Skopje's portion of the debt it
inherited from the former Yugoslavia.
7. Recommendation: At a minimum, you should raise the
iss is of a deteriorating situation in Macedonia and ? - ,
sen:itLue your-counterparts to the high stakes. If they are
int:tested, you might encourage them to investigate steps
the USG can take to lessen the internal pressures on,the ??
 I'
i, ? ,`may' SE
SUBJSCTs The Next Balkan Problem, Macedonia and the'
Albanian Question
Joseph 9. Nye Jr.
develop alternative trade:sw-in the falkani. Par
axsepla, an Rut-west rail ooomectioa through bulgaria
(roughly 35 kilometers) vould%provide.eaonomic
opportunities that-would itrangthen Macedonian-Bulgarian.
cooperation (presently pretty good) and reduce the
strangle hold that Athens has over-rail and ship traffic?
via Thessaloniki.
? The U8 could use its leverage with the world Bank and
other IPI'^ -- where Greek influence is relatively m6deet,
-- to encourage some.pllowance for the effects of the
sanctions and Greek embargo in IMP plans for Macedonia.
? The US could push'for more generous debt relief, until.
the sanctions regime. and the Greek embargo are lifted.
It could encourage others?western partners to ease. the
burden of Macedonia in other ways-as well.
~~// ?
I. 08 credibility is now much more commiEted to the fate,
of the Albaniank than it was to the Bosnian. There is
still a standing commitment to react if Kosovo blows,.tbers
are now ovir 500 US military personnel in. Macedonia, and
BecDef Percy.is on his way there. Should the Albanian
problem become full-blown over the next year, it will be
very difficult indeed for the US to turn`this problem over
to the Burppeans, such less ignore the problem for very .