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SUBJECT: Th+~ ~'oliticnl Sitxxs.ttut in S?uth Vietnaxx-x: Tlhe Cup?rent
Crisis, :tw'ossible Future T3evelopnxents, IJ. ~. options
THE F3AC~~R.QUNT.~
At the present tizx~+~- ~euth 'Vfetriam is ~xo#theex ~ "state-'~, in
oux instituti~axxal sense of the yrord nc~r -- yet -- a'~tlatft": as vve
undex?stand and dei'i~.e that terxr~ fn thG rest. T'he V'ietnar~es+e have ~,
keen e,r~d poud. sense Q? shared x-neznfaez?shfp ixa ~ hon:xogenaus +ethni~
group vaith a cmmrnon, Ci.~~,tixre.l herita~s etas,tching batck ?c~r many
centux#es~ but th+~y have little s+~nse v? shared i-nex~~bcx'ship in a
single body politic. Axtitulate and politically conscious eler~ent,a
withf~. St~.zth Vietnam -- eggec~,a.lly i~a th+s military est~-bliehrrxent and
~~ ur}~an centers ~-- s.rs rapidly elevelopfaag a touchy sense Q? e3notional
"x~ationalisnx", which is grtaftad oxi a traditional and highly developed
sense of xaeial prfde, coupled with an equally trad3tiona-l and. developed
ix~etinctive dislike ft~x? ftareigs~ers. Aa yet, however, there is little
sense cif a national ixxtereet whose claizx~xe txanscend those of p+aa sc~xnal
ambition or ties to family, assoca~at+es, regicm t~rr religion.
U. ~. a.ssistar3ce which they welcome, reco,~rxiae as
e~sseatial but n?ax~ethelass a.Iso resent, non-Cnx-nrxxus3fa~t '~ietrxan~.e$:e
scsuth ~a? the i7th parallel are trying simultaneously to cope with an
sxter~t.lly dirette~d Cox~nmunist insurgeiacy and to build sor~3eth3sxg
~s arxev+sx existed befoxe: an independent Vetnam~eeo+s netion.
'Thin ex~rde~svna ie drastica.lly ecsmpf?c~eted by the stresses ausrtd prEtssur~ss
generrttesi by the ixxscxrgency. It i+~ also toxnpliC~ted by ?ther Factors:
9crc.th '~'ietnarx~.'s golitical parties arc all ,fragrx~.ented facticsns of what
vrere initially cla~adestine revolutiaxu~ry organir~s.ti+~ns. The$:~ 3eaders
axe izscc~rrigibly inclined to plot the overthrow of getverxxrnents and
r+~1u+Gtan;t to support any political stru~turezr~ which they cannot. hs.v+s
the pSx?s.rx~.eaurtt ~?vles . 'There axe no traditionally accepted aastitutaozx$
~tapable ?? pr+~vidiz~.t; ?ctruznr~ for political dissent, rnea.st7rin~; the
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/01/04 :CIA-RDP80R01720R000500030052-3
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/01/04 :CIA-RDP80R01720R000500030052-3
s~t~~~
relativ~a strength ~~ c.Qntandn~; groups, arr striking peaceful po2itica~I
bur~ains , ~ Qn:Yy organiserd anc~ discip2irke~d sx~tty in ~o~~th
Yiertna preerez~tly eapabla of txisxutgxx~; a gca~erxkmsnt is the< xxailitt~ry
+~stabl3sh~x~ent. Ia: ~e a'6serxce cif effe~ctiwe pr~Iiticet3 institutions ar
argan~satiax~.s, religious graulte provltde the ~'ocsl Qoi,nt for pcylitsal
~re~ntfzx~ernts. the ~-bstenee of ger~uixte t~ationrsm, rsg~;ax~tr.l ties
~~rlcar poY~ti+~al ez~lotans end are stre3rtg~Br than. x~.sce~at isigher l~y~lti~~.
Fear the past year South 'Yi+etna.rri has been ruled by x~ zrailitary
goverrr~snent which has had to direct ~ wa.r and, s#n-~c~ltaneously, co
with , of Cher prcrblarr~s o~.tlined ebov+e. flit tl~+e apex of this gt~v~ornx~zent
,~ h+~en $ ?#ire+~tory cf tcn genaral~t whcase xr~efst px'csx~afszannt ~-~~e.~zik~o rye
ha~.ve b~ren Cher- Cl~i+e f ~sf ~~te , G e+ne x ~tl Ttiiau, erg the p'renie r , G es'srs r sl
Yir, 2~'ei~'s.+mr, hc~rwever, has p+~eseesed indap~tadexat eLe~thority~. Ixxarte~-d,
both have- cax~l.~ ~~cerceed gpwsr del,dgsad by a cagium.
~o ~rurvi and ~:CCOrxaplie~h a~xy,ything this g,overrzs..ent has had
pa~rfQrrxa a ~t~nt#n~ual balearxeir~ Tact ,jugglixtg that +e~rprsti~ clai~~.ar
~-nd j~e~duefes ~ ss~,xtha~rners, C~1lntristes, and ncrrth4xx~ers, of
.ddhista
~ap~a with the fact that the nzilitaxy ccxna.xxx~cier of each of floe fuxir
dixxa:ixr~fshed degree of military authority. Furthe.sxxic~~e, it has had
fracture v~ath a ~z~aa~ er legal title to gov~rear end a
parlittcal~y +cee7scicKUS erivf~an ?I+Cxx~:ents fnr the +evcalution
xcstvet~etsr at cc~tinucd ~r,:#~i~a~.?~r ru~a ~~?~ ~.e vsridsspread
politic power in mouth V`ietn~rr,.. ~t hays ~3.sQ bed tc~ c4p+e
athol3.ce, snd the ether greuYara who ha~ro ~rorxx
~h~xself s. emb+sr of ~ rul~,~xi, ~irectQry} is inevitat~ly
d whersa r+ecaneY writ within has corps is at least as strc~g
ae that of the ~ex+-treY govarn~nent. t7ex tlxa past year. this. proble~xr_
haa-s been pti!~uiarly anal #ncrt~sair~ly e.te in South Vetna,'s five
nertheznznost pro*rira~+sa which cc~netih3t+e the ~ Corg,~ ores: ercd he.~e
berexn ~c~verrn+eti by Cher ambitia~ze, terxxperrnental Arid sc~r~-~etn3va~
~~.etsbla~ ~,erxerra3. l~iguyex~ ~nh Thi.
is with~.n thfs conteaxt that South Zt+etxxtt~z'e cur=ant pe-liti~cal;
aria#s de~velog~zd. By 4 l,rch, ~a~r~ Ky had reached ~, decision
shad by r~zo~t of his I7firectary colleagues t~:aet tho central ,~c~veerx~-xxent
;oulc~ nee '~.c~ng+sr tvlc~ its then Cwrpa~ araa satrapios beset ex+srz~xpliffed
rauraY ~`h~e~ I corps anc3. cq~neeque~ntly, that Thy had t+~ ga. Thi
_~..
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~~L~~ 1,'
~d to .i~ox~ fvr a i17 march Tlixee~tary naeeettin~ at which hea
used ~~ hie eetrr~md and ~okd taut he would bs eer~t ebrs~ad:
gt~rs,ry e~c~i3ex. uer~e~xal Kq he,d pre-ps:rsd his ~rvuxid
eYa.xe~'u~ly fox this mieet3tl~ a.nd gets eablet t~- abts.in they un,aex9'tx-~zr~us +~uppt~xt
o~ bier ~lxe~~t~xy ccllaagu+aat. ~ fcrYlo~,v,.u,p executaQn, ~r~wetver* was
Il pretpa;re~ci. axsd vc~s x~s~~ effect~etly ~s.rried out,
the4 I{3 I,rCh znetetiari~ 3'h wa,s trald he ~vu~cl r$tur~t breefly
to harps tha fo~.~,Qw#ng day to wind up his ~??~#r: snd partic3pstee in
~, ~~~-of-erc~mmand ~exr+sctay de:s~ne>d tc~ save his ~~~~. That r~i.~ht,
Ds~sr~v++~r: that l?esputy ~'rizxi+~p IVI$nister, Geenetxal Cc~, ,a~tathers povt+'erful
,~irea~ts~xy figure, ag~g4re~ntly ~d ~- uz~tlattratl ehetxxgee of ~.d. . they
m~arnfra~ caf ~e filth, Co vxeent to the Sa#~on Airport, p~eeveenteed Thi franc
l.e~a~-ir#~;, arxd effe~~t placead hirr~. und~~ hau.s+~ arretst ~ ~ai~v~a. ~'iue
days later twee I'Jre~ttary ~han~ad its rand again. By then the I ~or~a
situ~A,tion. had begun tea ho troubleeom~a and Thi was ~kowed to return to
,~ ~arg:~ t~f~z s ec~uplee of drys" ix~ the hope: _- end. apga~rent3.y with the
uncleex~tdi~ng -_ that he a~~a~u1d exert hi:s ~exscax~al ix~flue-ncet to ~al~r
this down before leavi Chet country, Hee went bask tv corps ox~
1~+ arerh, Is still the=res, and has +~: mr~rae tc~ aggrevateti than: to
as+eue Chet ?~`ifixat~iear~.
etcvgnised that T'h~,es dia~miseal would a$use s+~rn,e
ret~samtzxa~nt I G~rps but. icy and hie ~?reetc~ry erclr~aguas thought
~y e"r+uld ke:e~p xxxatte~rs under coxxtxol,. rex~.ts px?veci o~erwis+e,
h~w+~ver ~ fc~r rrarous resales. ~ thb mast irxrport~xst of whaerfi not. so much x~te:retst+~d
Thi hixxk~eslf: with whon~~ they had. alxehady b~cc~rne n?soret or lass
diee-szchante~d, ,as they were i~. the rtpp~artur~ty for ?xringin~ d?wn thee
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SECRET.
grnx~ax~t. Thair inlti~. ~xabes fQr weak~aase were gs~t a~+~ctr~e-ly
entered #Ena they Y~tve ~-ccordz~ly develc~p~sd th~alr protem~ts iota
~l-f~,edg+od ~xers~t~.ie,`"~'ec ontratad but ~+~ nc~ maane reetxfctsd
to ~ ~c~xps.
the free we~oiCa~ ~x~e~ Thit~ ?~u~#,er a s~erls,~uus e~iGuet~,c~n has
d~-v+~2ad in wh1c1~, st tae ~r?esent t#rns~, 3 ~o?rp,~ ea~,rxx~+~t b+a sa#d to
+~ff~a~tiv~rly` ~~r~dez Se.~en cc-s~txol, za which BudciYi.ist r~sti~a,t~+d
p~aeeur~ox Mire ~axlvu~ily thxea~n~ ~~ ~ta~~l~ty aac~ perhelss th~r
a~~ual ~~arvival c~~ the pxa+~ant G~'l+t', aad ire wvhi,ch az~tfwzex c~a, and
utx~st sentirx~ax~te axe bain~ Q~only voicer+~.
~ ~vrnplex political genie nvw bating ?onduct~ed xa, Sa~:~th
aDrf1 axe a wide vc'7~'~+@!t3-' 4f pla~t'a~rs +~r ~;x~n;ps th~eres~:
'with div~x?~~z~t c~bj+~etiva~, ~z~bit~rse~. ana vest~~ i~t+tr~arta.
~~ the ~+arectc~x~: Ga~axal y and his i~r::x~ne~at~+ calleues
~-b'uiC~u~ly 'i~it tai stay' i p er. ~xtzse~~.t the vs~~ar* axacl +'C>~3dt~Gt t21a~
ward eaa~l; Ci+ElVIB1C~~XY]:aDlTt whla:.h th+~y are siraeerely if na~t alwa
a~'~iie~ly s+rttn iri xr~a~ttlsm. $y ~n.d kar~;a the l~i?ral~'Cta~X'y' se+~~rs:~ to
han~~ trsgetha.r f pe-xh~,pa tai avaaid henging aep~rat~ly} one for the
~~mam bez~ at le~e$t ~y +snjays the uni~'i+sd, though nvt xi+eGa~D6$x'ily la~yaa.,
~~tlaga~rt cad ~,is ixx~zr~ea~f~tae +eoll+~agues. xy and his ~acaa#es, lxcrv~re,var,
e.re a~bttit~,ta6tly diaturbeci and mW3raEi than ~ Yitt3.e iaz~sure~ e~f th+~rxx~elvas.
.~-.~ ~ia>e.t1~a1. 8ba~va~~ they l.an+@p a~haa7.gix~ t12Cir minas a~n ~e beet cc~ar~re
of ~,~ti,an to fa5l~,caw. 'j`ha~y are uzader~at~dab~.y a~ur3aiz.~ t+~ a~~ad a head?
+tc~llisia~n ~nvxth #;he Buddhists or an tiY1w18aL' use n#" farce acspable cif
~ettix?g i~. tx&%xx ~ ~c+urac a~? e~-ente liica thaass wvhicl~, ~eci to .orrs'~
dQwx~f~,2 ix~ :963. It app+~ars, ha~wasvex, that th+~y may he ~ta~win~ the
r~b*~u~ a~ vary real I1L*ea3 fvx pxudana~as tai ~i1~x'Yat! ~~ an e~cuee fog-
-px~d~.~tive pr+~tsrac~tfnatia~n. anr3 lr~dec~lc~n.
~~. ~ '3'h~; Thi pxc~vicistl the ao~ca~~ion fs~x th~r axi~fa bit as
a;ex ~t~ centxal +&~,a~~'y~{I~nt. ~ a~bxrtously re8~21ts hiS +l,~tt~t$r anct
d~tapa~sed tea +axa~rt hixne$lf to aeae$ the p~ai~lers3s of his fa~xs~sr
~+ long as ha remains. lz~ I G*~rp~ he tivi11 ~.3;rrmaaa~t camxtairzl~r
R+~xve ear an irxitant sx~t~ vi.sibl+s s}r~tibtil +af the ~y gOVa'Jx21~'3ta~`11~ttS
J~~RtT,
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/01/04 :CIA-RDP80R01720R000500030052-3
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SECRET `~
xxabf~:ty ~~ e~~xfaz~e d~~ecuttan of 3tita prd~ere. '~'hroughs~ut hip Ga~a~er ~-
eve~sa th+~ l~bt~ e~oup atts~.~pt -? 'Thi. has a~way~a be+sn ata~xae~ca~te e3~se'?
eRt?s mow'. ~a frcmt ~- witting Qr unwitting --? fcrr vthex Ps?F~'
1iti~s:1 xr~anipu~~.tic~r~e. ~+~ rez~rx~tiae ~v today.
',s r~Exeautive:.~~~~.~~; One
_ ~~nt~'#~but~~r~ to the4 p.~eteetx~t crisis i~ the fit that ~Cy and hip f~rectcary
cn~+~agurte~ ham beean pe~rTy ~sxvsd:, if ~?~ actua~:~.y -~srved:, by the
e?Y~Qa+~s~ saza~utf~te in~txu~ex~.t~ fl? th+~ir decia~.Qn to diemaas ~enetr~- Thi.
~'iane-ra~. ~huaE:z~, ass i~di~aatad abakvs, ie aittin~; an ~t f,~nce-. t~.ik+e, .
Ia~talty tg ~iltg~n but ~Q fax he~?~. g. , ?er mere- than ant~r week or twa at zr~,ct}
ctoxy axed pra~aant xegirx~e rex~~airaa ~.ox~nlz~~iir ^xa gc;~~R~er.
,preeextt unreect ~~rsti?n2z?e the rxxvre dlffi~cult it will be tQ effect
res~uticx~ er ez?eata a r~tsble~ eu~C~reecsr to the prr~eextt
ai structure. A3sa the hanger ft comtinue+~, the gratez? will be the
rtan~r ~f ~rhy. die~t~lutivn cf sffective e~ax~~ral authc~~~r, ,anr~ thee
~,~slti~n of pow+~r withian sc-xx~e eegrn~rnt cif the ~o~xaatry fie, g. , I Corps
dry ~auLaalist-c~xiented group aubf eet to Camxnaan$et manfpulation ar~.d
tel. ~a~e are reztl da,>;exs #o v~rh4ch vie must alext, Whey a.re
nc~~ p~eeen~.y ulrs~zx us, hr~t~ltvex, sand we will stand ~, faltr butter eha~~ce
+~~` ~-r~wvex the#x em~arganc+~ if a r#air~ csur ~+an~~ c#' per~-pe~tiv~
sad v~a~id larsrrtur? ~-anic,
d~. ~~a~~ ~f a~lable tf.5, ?a:~s xrxu~rt als~r draw the
hotwea~n in~xne~te options ~a:e thane ~rra~ble t~ us c-r
At #lie rnarrr~er~t w+~ have li~~m +~hai~e beat to >~c-xat~ue
xhi~h we aa~ar~ pre~ey eed,? tt~uching base
~g tabus alb a2ex7cxett~ im the c~arxsxzt ~xi~-l.s, workfng
ecenes with th+~ present g~'ernment #,rs , effoxt to stxerxgthox~
~-aextiztg cii+sereot pre+s~urs for ftar~vaxc# rz~.caRvers~nt taxi its part,
u~aeful, ~oncr~cte ldea~ fc~r i~ ~4a~.?idez?at~l.
~r a ~oe~rwterrxa, the Iaaaaa baai~a~:y the three opti~as
~uee1 +~loae ianvQl~re3x~ont fx xth Vie#~~+~se palitieal llfe,
sexagi fzezxa< inte~xnatl Vieaxneee p+,~ldt~.ce c3 fd~usi +ra~r whr~ie
_
~ oxa $h+~ xxki,~tary prv:~ecutc~sa. of ~a war anal, {3j vv'l~thdravv$1 f'ror~x
~~r ~~?CT
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nr-nnt'?T
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/01/04 :CIA-RDP80R01720R000500030052-3
~r~r~. 'fie tJ. ~. ~rta~e axid pre~ex~t public pQ~ture~,
la ~tct ~: via'~la optis~n ~t they pr~rsent t#sxxe. ~f we wer+~ c~uxtal Qur
+~+~sxzax~itxn.entu nt~w anci l+t~k ~~r ~ w~.y cut w? arcau'id e~xly be vixidica~tin;
xa.ent+~ of ~~ within ~ V. fit. ~ ab~crad ~vvha erre vc~+~#f~x~vus~y
.ciai aux pr~ee.cixt. pe~Iicy.
~~ ~~~ we are to ot~y '~'ietna~ apt leapt tai the
re, ~~en~a~erment #ron~ i~ste~rnal pFalitce w auld h~
~ietfc since tb.s stru,~gle egains~t the Con~arnw~tiete
ba let gr~l~.tical2y by the youth Yiat~ose ~srhile ?~ur fsr,~er ire
~e 'diet Ong on the fi~sld of battle. ~i'era ~~ to happen,
ixa lirref, n~ste~x3~ x~rta~ourcee~ a~:al prestige. would have
?s tha time ~eatn~, tlaere:foze, atxr ox~2y vl~abie option i~r
~antin~ated invblvexxxsisr~t in u#h Yietn~xae+ae pa~atti~cal l~:e. cape
:v~-lv+ernent ents~i~.s a i?cllag first
~xpt seec~gnia~es sxsd Deep cox~t#ex~U:y ire mind the
p~-ct cf ~ ~I. ~. Ph~rsic~ prs~snce in t~'t~.
tae de~res tc- vrhi~.h ft e~ite~ the+ ernc~tfonal
tes eeven of th?~se ~vha re~~c~gni~r ~ x~med ~`c~r our
:~ixl fe-r a~ur hip, and want de~gexatealy
us #~ rem~a4n in +arder that they r~aay untie e-adst
xn hest ae~~n~ wig I~e;~r~ to ~e m~x~C~ad by fig,
~`: pa-litica~ #'inesse, ~ua.d ~ +centintxing e~art to ak,~
n n~:uenca sad p~raaex~~e ~? unek~trusive as
~s ~ pasit<
e s~vmx the
s~ux can'~finueci Yu;ppcrart
;pon suxr~t rx~~curn ca# rational bs]a~-vt~x +~n
~t. 1~"~tw ~fetnaxx~eee +~~re p+~liti~ly ec~phist~,+ca~teci
e~f,~ternstvn~3: sense ! nnQSt are g~ror-e -_ f~ZS a
~~ pe~rsenal and emotie~na'1 reasons -~ ~ overate
nce cif 'V`$~etna tc~ the [~. S. Sri g anal
sxx~.mgle, have made it ~ that. they ?eoi
they ~ play' political ga~rnas fn tb.e rnidet +~~ a wsr because
th,~y ,pan arrays csxunt a~n tho xJnfted Mates tc~ pz~stect them
'~ +zrnu~l#rt control. ~ ~- ~.ve gat tia cltaa"bvEee #lue
'~"i+~~xaxn~es+~ ~xxes +~f thes b,oliei' that Mexican paxblic aginon
? l~ w
~~ ~I~
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/01/04 :CIA-RDP80R01720R000500030052-3
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/01/04 :CIA-RDP80R01720R000500030052-3
et~xam+~~-e themselves may ctc~. ~ea4hape~ fi&e best w>~y
uFPert ~ cc~ntia~uad ~si~fart in "~'~~~} no xx~~tt#ea~ what
~~~ thie sx~e~sss.~ge wca,+~~ts ~rceuld bs to ba~:ng lcey Vietesa
~
? -- to
-- nel~di:!;g p~earhe~ps ~~~~ ~'ar 4.~u~-g hinrs+a
~ Mates for pan~riese~
d gaal#.cy staton~en'~~a? end the othea: puiilic
~oixYt er-deav~-as rs~u+~t, whea;evea. possi''~le, be
+~~ tc~ clowopl+sy the i~~et that the Yietn?~ese ~-re our
~._:~._.~~._
dspex~clent client+e s+nd build thoia~ forage ~~ #,udepertdeaatt allies.
~~~ ~iz~sy~ we mgt do alb we edn t4 fc~ater naticrn?buitdng
?`~~,~ snd the emea-gan+ce~ of ~ stable r~csn-Cornnrunist social
stru~tu~re but vve must av~arid ~' stter~.pt '~ far~c~+ Yietnae~se
pali~c~ development i>Eato a~ fnstit~atiox~.~tl fr~-n~ewoack fashiaz~ed
our image. ~,~. 'we must encourage the '~ietxzise to
demise fnstitutiozu~: msch~nfsrnl~ resge~nsfva ~ their needs,
.onet with thsix tr~+iitions, a~cl Gapa~ble of ~re#3~actix~; th+~
'
t eta-r~~'~ire.
es of pc~ittical power wfthin tfs.efr cia
l4cting S~pe~cial Aesfstant ~esr Y3tetnarrxeee .~iilairt~
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i ~ i
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`?. ,n F.TNAM A: I~ STA r r i
~, ~: DDCI
aATE : 4 AP ril 66
EF~c-~M: G rge P ? Carver, 7r.
5 U E3 1 F.
NLr . Ro stow .
REMARKS re erred
emorandum wasp p
The attached Friday and Saturday ? p'
on a crash basis on
iven to Assistant Secretar
draft copy was g the afte rnoon
Bundy at his urgent request on
believe, but am not
of Saturday, z April. I
sent a copy of this draft to
positive, that he ~ ..
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