USSR: MEASURES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT, 1950-80

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• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05210421
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• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2019
• Case Number: F-2015-01409
• Publication Date: December 8, 1982

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C
97th Congress 1
24 Session f
JOINT COMMITTEE PRINT
USSR: MEASURES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
DEVELOPMENT, 1950-80
STUDIES
PREPARED FOR THE trsz OF THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES
DECEMBER 8, 1982
Printed for the use of the Joint Ee0110Mie Committee
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97th Congress
2d Session f
JOINT COMMITTEE PRINT
USSR: MEASURES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
DEVELOPMENT, 1950-80
STUDIES
PREPARED FOR THE USE OF THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES
DECEMBER 8, 1982
Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
93-8920 WASHINGTON: 1982
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents. U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402
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JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to sec. 5(a)
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman
RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri
LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana
GILLIS W. LONG, Louisiana
PARREN J. MITCHELL, Maryland
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS, California
CLARENCE J. BROWN. Ohio
MARGARET M. HECKLER, Massachusetts
JOHN II. ROUSSELOT, California
CHALMERS P. WYLIE, Ohio
of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
SENATE
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR., Delaware
JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota
STEVEN D. SYMMS, Idaho
PAULA HAWKINS, Florida
MACK MATTINGLY, Georgia
LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas
WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin
EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts
PA UL S. SARBANES, Maryland
JAMES K. GALBRAITH. Executive Director
BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Deputy Di/ ector
(II)
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LETTERS OF TRANSMITTAL
OcTonlin 28, 1982.
To the Members of the Joint Economic Committee:
I am transmitting for the use of the Members of the Joint Economic Com-
mittee, other Members of Congress, and the public a volume of studies entitled
"USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80." The
volume was prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency at the reque,st of the
Joint Economic Committee.
The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national
product and its components. Separate sections cover industrial production, agri-
culture, and consumption. Part 1 contains estimates of Soviet GNP by sector
of origin and end use. Part II is an index of Soviet industrial production. Part
III is an index of agricultural production. Part IV is an index of consumption.
The studies also describe the methodology and data used.
The Joint Economic Committee is pleased to publish this study in the
hopes that it will help improve our understanding of the Soviet economy.
These studies fill a long-term gap in the West created by Soviet secrecy and
deficiencies in the publication of official economic data as well as differences in
the economic accounting system used in that country. The project was super-
vised for the Joint Economic Committee by Richard F. Kaufman.
Sincerely,
HENRY S. REUSS,
Chairman, Joint Economic Committee.
OCTOBER 26, 1982.
Hon. HENRY S. REUSS,
Chairman, Joint Economic Committee,
Congress of the United States,
Washington, D.C.
DEAR MR. CIIAIRMAN : The attached is a volume of studies entitled "USSR:
Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80." The studies were
prepared by specialists at the Central Intelligence Agency at the request of the
Committee. Taken together, they represent an up-to-date, comprehensive, quan-
tified assessment of the Soviet economy.
Sincerely,
RICHARD F. KAUFMAN.
Assistant Director, Joint Economic Committee.
(III)
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FOREWORD
By Chairman Henry S. Reuss
The Soviet Union does not publish measures of economic growth and devel-
opment comparable with those of Western countries. Rather, it publishes
measures of growth that are geared to its own definitions of economic phenom-
ena and its own political requirements. In addition, it follows a policy of
secrecy with regard to much of its economic activities and has been inconsistent
in the comparability and coverage of the economic statistics that are published.
The result is a large gap in the information available in the West concerning
the performance of the Soviet economy. To help fill this gap, the Central Intel-
ligence Agency (CIA) has been called upon to provide quantified estimates of
the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its size
relative to U.S. GNP, and its allocation among the various end uses--consump-
tion, investment, and government expenditures, including defense.
The studies contained in this volume are the culmination of a large re-
search effort over many years carried out by CIA's Directorate for Intelligence.
The estimates of GNP and its components, which are included, are virtually the
only independent Western estimates of these important measures of economic
performance in the Soviet Union. Earlier results of this work have appeared in
various Joint Economic Committee studies of the Soviet economy and CIA's
annual Handbook of Economic Statistics. This publication is the first time that
the concepts, methodologies, and data have been fully explained and docu-
mented in a comprehensive and up-to-date form.
The studies include separate sections devoted to agriculture and industry�
the major components of the originating sectors in the GNP, and to consump-
tion�the principal end-use sector. Part I discusses the overall estimates of
Soviet GNP by sector of origin and end use. Each of the remaining three studies
analyzes in detail a major component of GNI'. Part II contains an index of in-
dustrial production. Part III is an index of agricultural production. And the
final part is an index of consumption. Indices for all other sectors are included
in Part I.
Each study includes detailed compilations of the data used, their sources,
and the methodologies used to combine the data into the aggregate measures.
The goals of this publication are to achieve a wider understanding of how the
synthetic measures of Soviet economic performance are derived, to encourage
their broader use in analyses of Soviet economic performance, and to stimulate
discussion of ways to improve these measures and our general understanding of
the Soviet economy.
NECESSITY To CALCULATE INDEPENDENT MEASURES
There are several reasons for the calculation of independent measures of
Soviet economic performance. The deficiencies of official Soviet measures of
economic activity are well documented. Official Soviet measures are often con-
ceptually different from the measures used in the West, are not published in
sufficient detail, are sometimes published in noncomparable series, and tend to
inflate real growth rates.
The official Soviet measure of economic growth, referred to as net material
product, includes only the value added in the production of goods, and a few
services. The value added in the rest of the service sector and all depreciation
(V)
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income is excluded. Thus, Soviet net material product omits about one-fourth
of the resources used to produce goods and servk.es in the USSR. In addition,
there is an upward bias in official measures of activity. The result is that Soviet
statistics on net material product provide an incomplete and distorted view of
the size and growth of the Soviet economy.
The need for independent measures of economic performance is heightened
by the sparseness of official data and their inconsistencies. The official data
tend to be published in insufficient detail, the price base of sonic series are
periodically changed, and the product coverage may be altered without notice.
For example, because the official measure of consumption referred to as
"real incomes of the population," is not described adequately, its validity or
usefulness cannot be fully assessed. The official series shows a higher growth
rate than does the synthetically construdted index of consumption, in part
because of the failure of the official series to take inflation into account.
The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based
on gross output rather than value added. As a consequence, double counting
of materials used in production is incorporated in the indices. There is con-
siderable evidence that the official index for industrial production has serious
short-comings due to the treatment of price and quality changes. There is much
evidence that prices assigned to new industrial products are too high relative,
to prices for older products in view of the changes in technology and quality
taking place.
In the consumer sector, there is considerable evidence that new, high-priced
but only slightly altered products are deliberately stibstituted for equivalent,
low-priced products to syphon-off consumer purchasing power. The official data
treat such changes as if there were no real price increases, thus incorporating
hidden inflation.
THE GENERAL APPROACH
The value of GNP can be calculated in two ways. One way is to derive
GNP as the sum of the various end uses of the goods and services�consumption,
investment, and government (both military and civilian). GNP can also be
computed as the sum of value added in the several production sectors�industry,
agriculture, and the like.
The intent of these studies is to replicate as far as possible, on both the
sector of origin and end use sides of the accounts, the methodologies developed
by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the OECD for the construction of
Western economic accounts. Precise conformity is not possible, primarily be-
cause the organization of the Soviet economy and the limited amount of data
published by the Soviet Union require modifications and simplifications of the
Western accounting framework. Defense expenditures are the most conspicuous
example. Total defense is not identified separately in the Soviet GNP accounts
contained in this volume because other GNP components, primarily investment
and research and development expenditures, are thought to include substantial
amounts of defense expenditures. As a separate exercise, the CIA estimates
total defense expenditures directly from a detailed description of their defense
programs and activities. The defense estimates have been explained and dis-
cussed in the Joint Economic Committee's annual hearings on the "Allocation
of Resources in the Soviet Union and China."
Despite the limitations, it is believed that the measures developed�both the
configuration of trends and absolute size�are reasonably accurate representa-
tions of Soviet economic performance, can be compared with confidence with
similar measures for Western economies, and are far more acceptable indicators
of economic performance than the corresponding measures published by the
USSR.
Gross national product is defined as the market value. of the final goods and
services produced by a given country. As applied to the Soviet economy, this
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definition raises theoretical problems. The most important is that the Soviet
Union does not have market determined prices. Instead, it uses, for the most
part, centrally fixed prices which may be quite far removed from the values
that would obtain in a market-oriented economy. Market prices reflecting real
resource costs of each product are needed to derive theoretically correct infer-
ences about the real growth and distribution of GNP. An important segment
of Part I is devoted to computing a set of alternative, factor-cost prices used
to replace Soviet prices. The latter are seriously distorted by taxes and sub-
sidies and by their failure to incorporate accurately the costs of land and re-
producible fixed assets. The factor-cost prices are intended to represent more
accurately the actual cost of resources used to produce each category of goods
and services.
The indices of the growth of GNP and its three major components are
computed as weighted averages of subcomponent indices. The weights are 1970
expenditures or value added as derived in the 1970 GNP accounts (Part I,
Appendix D). The subcomponent indices are developed from physical produc-
tion or consumption data. The index of industrial production is computed
from production data on over 300 products. These are grouped first into 10
branches of industry and then into an aggregate index. The index of agricul-
tural production, computed by combining production data for 42 types of crops
or livestock products, represents the value of all output less that used by
agriculture itself�primarily feed and seed. The index of consumption is
divided into three major categories of goods and eight categories of services.
Each category is further divided into individual products or services. The
index of GNP by sector of origin is formed by combining the indices of indus-
t rial and agricultural production with similar indices for the remaining pro-
duction sectors�transportation, communications, domestic trade, and services.
Similarly, GNP by end use is computed by adding indices of investment and
other government expenditures, including most of defense outlays.
OR PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED
The construction of the independent measures encountered numerous prob-
lems. Some are universal to all aggregate measures of economic performance
and some are peculiar to the Soviet case. The treatment of quality change, for
example, is a universal problem. Most elements of the industrial index are
expressed in physical units such as tons or number of items. This procedure
may understate quality improvements over time, especially in machinery
products. On the other hand, official data, expressed in rubles or as index
numbers, are used where physical production data are not available. As indi-
cated above, these data clearly overstate growth. Because the biases in official
and physical data are offsetting, however, their use in combination should pro-
vide a truer measure of real growth. Similarly, the index of housing services
in the consumption index is based on the number of square meters of housing
without a quality adjustment. In this case, all evidence points to remarkably
little improvement in the quality of Soviet housing and there is likely not a
serious bias in the housing index.
Compiling consistent data for the period 1950-80 presented a challenge.
Many of the official data series are incomplete or published in differing formats,
requiring many interpolations and strong assumptions about relative prices.
Other data are not published at all or not on a regular basis. instead, they
have to be culled from the specialized monograph and journal literature. For
example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of
agricultural products are not published regularly or in a consistent. framework.
USES OF '1'11E STUDIES
Just as aggregate measures of Western economic performance are used
in many different applications, so the results of these studies can be employed
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VIII
in many ways. Foremost is their use in making assessments of the Soviet econ-
omy by analyzing the interplay of the disposition of resources for consump-
tion, defense, and future growth. Insights into the regime's policies and priori-
ties can be obtained by assessing the "burden" of defense and the pattern of
allocating the "growth dividend." In addition to being a measure of the size
and growth of the economy, GNP also provides a standard against which other
economic variables can be measured, such as the amount of energy used per
unit of GNP.
The G-NP data base forms the foundation for forecasting, either by using
large econometric models or other means. Such forecasts not only concern the
future growth rate of total GNP, but also can be employed to assess other im-
portant variables, such as the domestic demand for oil.
The GNP estimates can be used to compare the size of the Soviet economy
with the United States or other countries, and the relative priorities each
country assigns to the uses of its national product. Such international com-
parisons depend, of course, on the domestic value of GNP or one of its com-
ponents. For example, an earlier publication in this series estimated the value
of Soviet consumption relative to other countries.1
Despite the limitations of the estimates, the work expended on the CIA
independent measures represents a valuable contribution to economic analysis
of the USSR. The results shown in this volume present a picture of Soviet
economic growth different from that given by the official measures. Each of
the four studies presents comparative results in detail. By way of swnmary,
the following tabulation compares average annual growth rates for the four
aggregate indices and their closest Soviet official counterparts for 1951-80:
Average annual rate of growth in the years 1951-80
[Percent]
CIA Soviet
measure measure
GNP 1
4.7
7 . 4
Industrial production
6.8
8. 7
Agriculture production 2
2. 8
3. 1
Per capita consumption
3. 5
5.0
The CIA measure for the same coverage as the Soviet measure (see text) is 5.3
percent per year
a The measure shown represents "net output," or gross output less products used
by agriculture (seed and feed). This is the concept of output closest in coverage to the
official Soviet measure of farm output. As a contributing sector to GNP the appropriate
measure for agriculture output is value added (net output less material purchases from
other sectors) which over this period grew at 2.0 percent per year.
It is clear that, except for agriculture, the growth rate differences are large
and, over a 30-year period, indicate a significantly different picture of economic
growth than that provided by official Soviet statistics.
' "Consumption in the USSR : An International Comparison," U.S. Congress, Joint Economic
Committee, August 1981.
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THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF RUSH V. GREENSLADE
The research in this volume owes an immense debt to the work of the late
Rush V. Greenslade. Dr. Greenslade was employed at the Central Intelligence
Agency from the early 1950's until his retirement in 1973. For many years he
directed CIA's research on the Soviet economy. After his retirement, he con-
firmed as a consultant and advisor to the CIA until his death in 1978.
Dr. Greenslade's primary contributions were in the area of quantifying and
analyzing Soviet economic development. He developed an index of Soviet in-
dustrial production in the 1950's and wrote frequently on industrial trends. He
was also closely involved in shaping the analytical framework and in organizing
the collection of data for estimates of Soviet GNP. In the early 1970's, he led
an effort to convert the GNP estimate to 1970 prices and to reexamine and im-
prove all of the methodologies and data supporting these estimates. This work
led to the publication by the CIA of a set of GNP accounts for 1970 and an
article in the Joint Economic Committee's 1976 compendium on the Soviet
economy, "The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R., 1950-1975."
This volume extends Dr. Greenslade's work by updating and documenting
the 1970 base-year accounts and the many time series used in calculating each
sector-of-origin and end-use GNP index.
Dr. Greenslade was also deeply involved in the analysis of the size and
structure of the Soviet economy in relation to that of the United States and
other countries. An earlier volume in this series on Soviet GNP compared
Soviet consumption with consumption in the United States and other countries.
This project was designed and directed in its early stages by Dr. Greenslade.
Dr. Greenslade also played a leading role in forming estimates of the dollar
value of Soviet investment based on new ruble-dollar ratios for machinery and
construction. The results of this ruble-dollar ratio research were published by
the CIA. Dr. Greenslade's research on international economic comparisons
culminated in a new comparison of Soviet and United States GNP since 1955
published by Edwards, Hughes, and Noren in the Joint Economic Committee's
1979 compendium on the Soviet economy.
(Ix)
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CONTENTS
Page
Letters of Transmittal III
Foreword by Chairman Henry S. Reuss
The Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ix
I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80_ 3
II. An Index of Industrial Production in the USSR 169
III. An Index of Agricultural Production in the USSR 245
IV. An Index of Consumption in the USSR 317
(XI)
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USSR: MEASURES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT, 1950-80
Central Intelligence Agency
Directorate of Intelligence
1
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Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80
By John Pitzer
3
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Contents
Page
List of Standard Citations 10
Introduction 11
Our Estimates in Perspective 11
Soviet National Income Data 12
The Plan of the Paper 13
Part I. Results and Analysis 15
Soviet Economic Growth in Perspective 15
Changes in Soviet Growth Since 1950 15
The Evolving Structure of the Soviet Economy
Changing Patterns of Output Use
Soviet Growth in International Perspective
16
18
19
How Reliable Are the Synthetic Measures of Soviet Growth? 23
Sensitivity to the Base Year Used 23
Patterns in the GNP Residual 24
Comparisons With Official Soviet Data
Comparisons With Other Western Estimates
Part II. Methodology
The Accounting Framework
The Accounting Units
The Main Financial Flows
Definitions and Conventions
25
26
27
27
27
29
30
Summary of Differences in the Soviet and US GNP
Accounts
Valuation
Soviet Established Prices
Finding a Basis for Valuing Soviet GNP
33
33
34
34
Distortions Caused by Turnover Taxes and Subsidies 35
Variations in Profit Rates 36
Differential Prices and New-Product Pricing 37
The Adjusted Factor-Cost Standard 37
Soviet GNP in 1970 in Established Prices and at Factor Cost 38
The Revised 1970 Soviet GNP Accounts 38
Construction of the 1970 Input-Output Table and
Conversion of the 1970 Accounts to Factor Cost 38
A Comparison of Established and Factor-Cost Prices 40
5
93-892 0 - 82 - 2
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Problems in Estimating Volume Indexes of Economic Activity in the
USSR 42
Effect of the Base Year on the Growth Rate 42
Aggregation of Quantity Indexes Instead of Deflated
Value Indexes 42
Specific Index Number Problems 43
Problems of Measuring the Real Growth of Value
Added 44
Soviet GNP Indexes 46
End-Use Indexes 46
Sector-of-Origin Indexes 48
Appendixes
A.
Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 51
B.
Sector-of-Origin Indexes 83
C.
End-Use Indexes 117
D.
Revised 1970 GNP Accounts in Established Prices 125
E.
Conversion of 1970 GNP From Established Prices to 163
Factor-Cost Prices
Tables
1. Average Annual Rate of Growth of National Product for Selected 20
OECD Countries (GDP) and for the USSR (GNP)
2. Percentage Distribution of National Product by End Use in Selected 21
OECD Countries (GDP) and in the USSR (GNP)
3. Average Annual Rate of Growth of Per Capita Consumption in 22
Selected OECD Countries and the USSR
4. Percentage Distribution of 1960 and 1976 Soviet GNP by Sector of 23
Origin in Current and 1970 Established Prices
5. Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 35
6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products Sold to the Light and Food 36
Industries
7. Profits as a Percent of Productive Fixed and Working Capital in 36
1972
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Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices,
by Type of Income, 1970
39
Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices,
by End Use, 1970
39
10.
1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use
41
11.
1970 Soviet Gross National Product by Sector of Origin
41
Figures
1.
Growth of Soviet GNP
15
2.
Annual Soviet GNP Growth Rates
16
16
3.
Growth Rates of Soviet GNP and Agriculture
4.
Growth Rates of Soviet GNP and Industry
17
5.
Distribution of Soviet GNP by Sector of Origin
17
6.
Distribution of Soviet GNP by End Use
18
7.
The Outlays n.e.c. Residual and a Synthetic Measure
25
8.
Annual Growth Rates of Soviet Adjusted GNP and Net Material
Product
25
9.
Soviet End-Use and Sector-of-Origin GNP Categories
30
Appendix Tables
A-1.
GNP by Sector of Origin
52
A-2.
Average Annual Rates of Growth of GNP by Sector of Origin
55
56
A-3.
Annual Growth Rates of GNP by Sector of Origin
A-4.
Percentage Shares of GNP by Sector of Origin
59
A-5.
Indexes of GNP by Sector of Origin
62
A-6.
GNP by End Use
65
A-7.
Average Annual Rates of Growth of GNP by End Use
68
69
A-8.
Annual Growth Rates of GNP by End Use
A-9.
Per Capita GNP by End Use
72
A-10.
Average Annual Rates of Growth of Per Capita GNP by End Use
75
A-11.
Percentage Shares of GNP by End Use
76
A-12.
Indexes of GNP by End Use
79
B- 1.
1972 Construction Input Weights
85
7
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B-2.
Derivation of the Index of Purchases of Construction Materials by
the Construction Sector
86
B-3.
Derivation of the Implicit Construction Price Index
87
B-4.
Derivation of an Implicit Price Index for Investment in New
Construction and Other Capital Outlays
87
B-5.
Selected Purchases by Agriculture of Material Inputs From
Nonagricultural Sectors in 1972
88
B-6.
Derivation of the Index of Purchases of Nonagricultural Material
Inputs by Agriculture
89
B-7.
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Agriculture
90
B-8.
Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in
Agriculture
91
B-9.
Data Relating to the Activity of Various Modes of Freight
Transportation
94
B-10.
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Transportation
95
B-11.
Valuation of Farm Household Consumption in Kind in 1970 Prices
98
B-12.
Valuation of Collective Farm Ex-Village Market and Commission
Sales in 1970 Prices
100
B-13.
Derivation of the Retail Trade Index
102
B-14.
Derivation of the Wholesale Trade Index
104
B-15.
Computation of the Weights for the Agricultural Procurement
Index
105
B-16.
Derivation of the Agricultural Procurement Index
106
B-17.
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Trade
108
B-18.
Derivation of the Index of Material Purchases by Science
110
B-19.
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Science
111
B-20.
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Credit and Insurance
112
B-21.
Man-Hour Employment in Government Administrative Services
114
C-1.
Derivation of the Index of Investment in Machinery and Equipment
118
C-2.
Derivation of Investment in New Construction and Other Capital
Outlays
120
C-3.
Derivation of the Index of Capital Repair Expenditures
122
C-4.
Estimated Soviet Defense Expenditures, 1951-80
123
D-1.
Soviet Household Incomes, 1970
128
D-2.
Soviet Household Outlays, 1970
130
D-3.
Soviet Public-Sector Incomes, 1970
134
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D-4.
Soviet Public-Sector Outlays, 1970
137
141
142
D-5.
Soviet Gross National Product in Established Prices by End Use,
1970
D-6.
Soviet Gross National Product in Established Prices by Type of
Income, 1970
D-7.
Soviet Gross National Product in Established Prices by Sector of
Origin, 1970
143
D-8.
Distribution of the State Wage Bill by Sector of Origin, 1970
145
D-9.
State Wages and Salaries, 1970
147
D-10.
Distribution of Other and Imputed Income by Sector of Origin,
1970
149
D-11.
Distribution of Social Insurance Deductions by Sector of Origin,
1970
151
153
D-I2.
Social Insurance Deductions, 1970
D-13.
Depreciation by Sector of Origin, 1970
154
D-14.
Distribution of Amortization Deductions by Branch of Industry,
1970
157
D-15.
Distribution of Profits by Sector of Origin, 1970
158
D-16.
Distribution of Turnover and Other Indirect Taxes by Sector
of Origin, 1970
160
9
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List of Standard Citations
Full Citation
Abbreviated Citation
USSR Central Statistical Administration, Statistical Handbooks
� Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 19� godu (National Economy of the USSR in 19�)
Sel'skoye khozyaystvo SSSR, 1960 (Agriculture USSR)
Sel'skoye khozyaystvo SSSR, 1971 (Agriculture USSR)
Narkhoz 19�
Selkhoz 1960
Selkhoz 1971
Sovetskaya torgovlya, 1964 (Soviet Trade)
Soy torg 1964
Gosudarstvennyy byudzhet SSSR i byudzhety soyuznykh respublik (State Budget of the
USSR and Budgets of the Union Republics)
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
Gosbyudzhet, 1966
Gosbyudzhet, 1972
Gosbyudzhet, 1976
Soviet Periodicals
Voprosy ekonomiki (Problems of Economics)
Vop ek
Vestnik statistiki (Herald of Statistics)
Vest stat
Ekonomika I organizatsiya promyshlennogo proizvodstva (Economics and Organization of EKO
Industrial Production)
Ekonomicheskaya gazeta (Economic Gazette)
US Government Publications
Ekon gaz
CIA, USSR: Gross National Product Accounts, 1970, A (ER) 75-76, November 1975
CIA, The Soviet Grain Balance, 1960-73, A (ER) 75-68, September 1975
CIA, A Comparison of Consumption in the USSR and the US, January 1964
CIA, GNP 1970
A (ER) 75-68
CIA, A Comparison�, 1964
Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States,
An Index of Industrial Production in the USSR, 1982
An Index of Agricultural Production in the USSR, 1982
An Index of Consumption in the USSR, 1982
Consumption in the USSR: An International Comparison, 1981
Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982
Soviet Economic Prospects for the Seventies, June 1973
Soviet Economy in a New Perspective, October 1976
Soviet Economy in a Time of Change, October 1979
JEC, Industry
JEC, Agriculture
JEC, Consumption
JEC, Consumption Comparison
JEC, GNP Comparison
JEC, 1973
JEC, 1976
JEC, 1979
Other Publications
Irving B. Kravis, Zoltan Kenessey, Alan Heston, and Robert Summers, A System of
International Comparisons of Gross Product and Purchasing Power, United Nations
International Comparisons Project, Phase I (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press,
1975)
ICP, Phase I
Irving B. Kravis, Alan Heston, and Robert Summers, International Comparisons of Real
Product and Purchasing Power, United Nations International Comparisons Project, Phase H
(Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978)
Abraham S. Becker, Soviet National Income, 1958-1964 (Berkeley, University of California
Press, 1969)
ICP, Phase II
Becker, 1969
Abram Bergson, The Real National Income of Soviet Russia Since 1928 (Cambridge, Mass.,
Harvard University Press, 1961)
Bergson, 1961
Abram Bergson, Productivity and the Social System: The USSR and the West (Cambridge,
Mass., Harvard University Press, 1978)
Bergson, 1978
Vladimir G. Treml and John P. Hardt, eds., Soviet Economic Statistics
(Durham, N.C., Duke University Press, 1972)
Treml and Hardt
10
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Gross National Product
of the USSR, 1950-80
Introduction
This paper presents estimates of the real growth of
Soviet gross national product (GNP) since 1950 devel-
oped by the Central Intelligence Agency and de-
scribes the methodology used to construct those esti-
mates. An earlier publication presented our estimates
of Soviet GNP for a single base year, 1970, in both
established and factor-cost prices.' This paper revises
the 1970 GNP estimates based on information collect-
ed since their publication and develops constant-price
activity indexes to move each component of 1970
GNP over time.' The result is an estimate of the
growth of Soviet GNP in 1970 prices since 1950.
Our Estimates in Perspective
The Soviet GNP data presented here supplement an
already large body of research. The accounting struc-
ture closely follows the one pioneered by Professor
Abram Bergson and further developed by scholars at
the Rand Corporation.' The result of their efforts is a
set of Soviet GNP accounts for 1928, 1937, 1940,
1944, and 1948-66 in current rubles. Bergson also
'CIA, GNP 1970.
'Preliminary versions of the time-series data presented here were
published in Herbert Block, "Soviet Economic Performance in a
Global Context," JEC, 1979, vol. 1, pp. 135-140; and Rush V.
Greenslade, "The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R.,
1950-1975," JEC, 1976, pp. 269-300.
' The principal publications, in order of the years for which the
GNP accounts were constructed are: Oleg Hoeffding, Soviet
National Income and Product in 1928, Columbia University Press,
New York, 1954; Abram Bergson, Soviet National Income and
Product in 1937, Columbia University Press, New York, 1953;
Abram Bergson and Hans Heymann, Jr., Soviet National Income
and Product, 1940-48, Columbia University Press, New York,
1954; Abram Bergson, Hans Heymann, Jr., and Oleg Hoeffding,
Soviet National Income and Product, 1928-1948: Revised Data,
Research Memorandum 2544, The Rand Corporation, Santa Moni-
ca, Calif., 1960; Bergson, 1961; Oleg Hoeffding and Nancy Nimitz,
Soviet National Income and Product, 1949-1955, Research Memo-
randum 2101, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., 1959;
Nancy Nimitz, Soviet National Income and Product, 1956-1958,
Research Memorandum 3112-PR, The Rand Corporation, Santa
Monica, Calif., 1962; Becker, 1969; and Sally Anderson, Soviet
National Income, 1964-1966, in Established Prices, Research
Memorandum 5705-PR, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica,
Calif., 1968.
11
devised the adjusted factor-cost standard (AFCS) in
order to correct some of the distortions caused by the
Soviet pricing system. He recalculated GNP using
factor-cost prices, which are determined by imputing
a uniform capital charge in place of profits, and
eliminating the highly discriminatory turnover tax.
In order to compute the real growth of Soviet GNP,
Bergson developed price indexes to deflate the cur-
rent-price values of each end-use component of GNP.
Becker similarly computed the real growth of Soviet
GNP from 1958 to 1964 in both 1958 and 1964
factor-cost prices.4
A number of other scholars have published estimates
of Soviet GNP. TwO estimates for early years are by
Baran and Seton.' The United Nations, Bornstein,
and Cohn constructed GNP accounts for single years
in the 1950s.6 More closely related to this study are
calculations of the real growth of Soviet GNP for
extended time periods by Moorsteen and Powell,
Kaplan, and Cohn.' The latter three studies combine a
' Bergson, 1961, pt. 3; and Becker, 1969, ch. 6.
'Paul A. Baran, "National Income and Product of the USSR in
1940," Review of Economic Statistics 29, November 1947, pp. 226-
234; and Francis Seton, "The Social Accounts of the Soviet Union
in 1934," Review of Economics and Statistics 36, August 1954, pp.
290-308.
6"An Estimate of the National Accounts of the Soviet Union for
1955," Economic Bulletin for Europe 9, United Nations, Economic
Commission for Europe, May 1957, pp. 89-107; Morris Bornstein
et al,, "Soviet National Accounts for 1955," Center for Russian
Studies, The University of Michigan, 1961 (mimeographed); and
Stanly Cohn, Derivation of 1959 Value-Added Weights for Origi-
nating Sectors of Soviet Gross National Product, Technical Paper
RAC-TP-210, The Research Analysis Corporation, McLean, Va.,
1966.
' Richard Moorsteen and Raymond P. Powell, The Soviet Capital
Stock, 1928-1962, app. P, Richard D. Irwin, Homewood, III., 1966;
Norman Kaplan, The Record of Soviet Economic Growth, Re-
search Memorandum 6169, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica,
Calif., 1969; and Stanly Cohn, "General Growth Performance of
the Soviet Economy," Economic Performance and the Military
Burden in the Soviet Union, US Congress, Joint Economic Com-
mittee, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1970, pp.
9-17.
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distribution of Soviet GNP by sector of origin for a
base year with constant-price activity indexes for each
sector to estimate the real growth of Soviet GNP in
the prices of the base year. The most recent study is
by Lee, who constructed end-use accounts for 1955-
75.8
This paper combines the sector-of-origin and end-use
approaches to estimating the real growth of Soviet
GNP. First, the GNP accounts are constructed for
1970 in established prices following the Bergson
model. Second, the income side of the GNP account is
rearranged by sector of origin. Third, GNP by sector
of origin is converted to factor-cost prices, and the
factor-cost correction is carried over to GNP by end
use via an estimated 1970 input-output table. Fourth,
indexes in 1970 prices are constructed for each sector-
of-origin and end-use component. Finally, the compo-
nent indexes are combined using the 1970 weights in
factor-cost prices to estimate the real growth of Soviet
GNP both by sector of origin and end use. The results
are intended to measure changes in both production
potential and actual resource allocation over time.
Soviet National Income Data
The Central Statistical Administration of the Soviet
Union compiles its own measure of aggregate econom-
ic activity, usually labeled net material product
(NMP) in the West.' The annual Soviet statistical
handbook, Narkhoz 19�, provides data on total
Soviet NMP, including five sector-of-origin and two
end-use components. There are three principal reasons
for compiling an independent index of Soviet econom-
ic activity rather than accepting the Soviet measure:
(1) there are important differences in coverage be-
tween NMP and GNP, (2) we do not have sufficient
knowledge of the methodological base of the NMP
data, and (3) the Soviet data in purported constant
prices are subject to major price distortions.
'W. T. Lee, "USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices,
1955-1975," Jahrbuch der Wirtschaft Osteuropas, vol. 8, 1979, pp.
399-429.
e The actual Soviet term (natsionarniy dokhod) translates as
"national income." Since the same term is used in Western GNP
accounting for a different concept, the Soviet term is referred to as
net material product; it measures the net value added in the
production of material goods.
The main difference between NMP and GNP is that
NMP does not include the value added in the produc-
tion of most services, or a capital consumption allow-
ance.' To build an estimate of GNP from Soviet data,
these two quantities, which represented about 25
percent of GNP in 1970, must be estimated in the
desired detail. Historically, production of the exclud-
ed services has grown more slowly than the other
components of GNP and, therefore, this difference in
coverage has imparted an upward bias to the growth
of NMP.
The omission of depreciation from NMP affects the
growth rate if total depreciation grows more rapidly
than the other elements of value added, or if the base-
year distribution of depreciation among the sectors of
origin differs markedly from the distribution of the
remaining components of value added. The available
data are not sufficient to infer the direction of the bias
in the growth rate of NMP due to the omission of
depreciation. The exclusion of depreciation does, of
course, affect the absolute size of NMP.
The Soviet Government regularly publishes annual
data on total NMP produced in both current and
constant prices, but the five sector-of-origin compo-
nents are given only in current prices. Annual data
are also published in current prices for "NMP used,"
disaggregated into two end uses�"consumption" and
"accumulation and other outlays"; similar data in
constant prices have been published only for recent
five-year periods. Even if suitable deflators could be
devised, the published sectoral disaggregations are far
too few to support systematic analysis of structural
changes in the economy or to provide adequate data
for economic modeling.
The problems in using the NMP data are complicated
by gaps in our knowledge about the methodology used
to compile the data. The Soviets have never published
"See USSR: Toward a Reconciliation of Marxist and Western
Measures of National Income, US Central Intelligence Agency,
Washington, D.C., 1978, for a more detailed discussion of the
differences between the GNP and NMP concepts.
12
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a manual setting out their procedures in detail. The
nearest thing to such a manual was prepared by the
CEMA secretariat for publication by the United
Nations." This document sets out only the general
procedures and states that individual nations of
CEMA frequently diverge from them. Various Soviet
authors, including some known to hold important
positions in the Central Statistical Administration,
have published books on NMP. It is never clear,
however, whether these books represent official state-
ments or personal opinions. The lack of knowledge of
Soviet NMP practices makes it difficult to know how
to adjust NMP in order to reach GNP. The dividing
line between NMP and GNP is not always clear, and
the user of the NMP data is left to guess the correct
interpretation.'2
The third principal reason for making independent
GNP estimates is that Soviet data on the real growth
of NMP and sectoral output involve considerable
overstatement. Soviet NMP increased 57 percent in
constant prices and 51 percent in current prices from
1970 to 1979, which implies deflation in the Soviet
Union since 1970.'3 In contrast, most studies by
Western scholars indicate that there is persistent
inflation in the Soviet Union, both overt and re-
pressed. For example, Cohn allocated the difference
in the growth rates of Western estimates of Soviet
GNP and Soviet NMP to differences in (1) coverage,
(2) the weights assigned to each sector, and (3) sectoral
growth rates. He found the latter to be the most
important."
The chief cause of the difference in sectoral growth
rates in the postwar period is believed to be the Soviet
method of accounting for the production of new
industrial products. In constructing an output series in
constant prices, a price must be imputed to products
introduced after the base year. In theory, the Soviets
" Basic Principles of the System of Balances of the National
Economy, United Nations, New York, 1971.
12 See Abraham S. Becker, "National Income Accounting in the
USSR," in Treml and Hardt, pp. 115-119, for a discussion of this
problem.
Narkhoz 1979, p. 405.
Stanly H. Cohn, "National Income Growth Statistics," in Treml
and Hardt, pp. 136-137. For a recent look at inflation in general see
Alec Nove, Political Economy and Soviet Socialism, ch. 11,
George Allen & Unwin, London, 1979.
13
assign each new product a price high enough to
recover research, development, and introductory pro-
duction costs. After these initial costs are recovered,
the price of the new product is supposed to be lowered
and a permanent price established. In practice, how-
ever, pricing procedures are used by Soviet managers
to inflate the growth of output in two ways. Often old
products are altered slightly and declared to be new
products with unjustifiably higher prices, and genu-
inely new products are allowed to retain their intro-
ductory price as a permanent price. In both cases, the
unjustifiably high price is used by the Soviets as the
base-year price needed for the constant-price output
calculation. The impact of the new-product pricing
problem will be greatest in those sectors with a high
rate of innovation, primarily the machinery and
chemicals branches of industry in the Soviet Union."
The Plan of the Paper
This paper is divided into two main parts. Part I
presents and analyzes the results; detailed description
of the construction of individual sector indexes is
reserved for the appendixes. The first sections exam-
ine the estimated growth rates for both total GNP and
its principal components, the percentage distribution
of GNP over time, major shifts in resource allocation,
the growth of per capita consumption, and interna-
tional comparisons of the growth and structure of the
Soviet economy. The final sections of part I assess the
accuracy and reliability of the results.
Part II sets out the methodology used to construct
base-year weights in factor-cost prices and the indexes
of real economic activity. The methodology itself is
presented in four sections: the accounting framework,
the valuation problem, conversion of the 1970 GNP
accounts from established prices to factor-cost prices,
and the construction of constant-price activity index-
es. The final section briefly describes the nature of the
various end-use and sector-of-origin indexes.
See Comparing Planned and Actual Growth of Industrial Output
in Centrally Planned Economies, Central Intelligence Agency,
Washington, D.C., 1980, p. 6; and Rush V. Greenslade, "Industrial
Production Statistics in the USSR," in Treml and Hardt, pp. 181-
186, for discussions of the new-product price issue.
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Appendix A contains the detailed statistical results of
this study. Appendixes B and C document the meth-
odologies used to construct those individual sector-of-
origin and end-use indexes not described elsewhere.
Appendix D describes the revisions in the 1970 estab-
lished-price accounts, and appendix E describes the
methodology used to convert the 1970 established-
price values to a factor-cost basis.
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Part 1
Results and Analysis 16
Soviet Economic Growth
in Perspective
National economic accounts constructed for the Sovi-
et Union along conventional Western lines confirm
that the Soviet economy has experienced rapid growth
since 1950. The output of the Soviet Union in 1980
was about four times the level in 1950 (figure 1), the
result of an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent.
Changes in Soviet Growth Since 1950
The pace of advance over this 30-year period, howev-
er, has not been steady. In fact, annual rates of
growth have been characterized by both wide year-to-
year swings and a pronounced downward trend (figure
2). Despite this volatility, an absolute fall in GNP
from one year to the next�that is, a negative growth
rate�has been extremely rare.'' The downward trend
shows up clearly in average annual rates of GNP
growth for each of the five-year plan periods between
1950 and 1980:
Five-Year Period
Average Annual Percentage
Growth
1951-55
5.5
1956-60
5.9
1961-65
5.0
1966-70
5.2
1971-75
3.7
1976-80
2.7
These data suggest that the Soviet economy has been
in a strong growth slide since the late 1960s, and that
"All of the results presented here are in terms of 1970 factor-cost
prices unless otherwise stated. Part II discusses the rationale for
using these synthetic prices.
The single occurrence is 1963 when an enormous reduction in the
inventory of livestock following a disastrous harvest drove the
growth rate down to �1.1 percent. This decline is probably
exaggerated because the livestock index uses an average value per
head and most of the animals which were slaughtered in 1963 were
relatively low-valued young livestock.
15
Figure 1
Growth of Soviet GNP
Index: 1970=100
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
lIIIIlIIIIIIIIItI11I_LIJIIjIILI
0 1950 55 60 65 f10 75 80
the average growth rate in the late 1970s was barely
half the rate of 10 years earlier. 18
The wide year-to-year fluctuations in Soviet growth
are due primarily to swings in agricultural production.
Agriculture still represents a large part of the Soviet
Conventional average annual rate-of-growth calculations are sub-
ject to potential distortion if either of the end years is abnormal.
Alternative calculations based on procedures developed by Boris
Pesek, "Economic Growth and its Measurement," Economic Devel-
opment and Cultural Change 9, April 1961, pp. 295-315 to reduce
this source of distortion yield results which show only small
differences in the rates of growth calculated above. The Pesek
average annual growth rates for the five-year periods listed in the
tabulation above are: 1951-55, 5.5; 1956-60, 5.8; 1961-65, 4.8;
1966-70, 5.1; 1971-75, 4.0; and 1976-80, 2.6 percent per year.
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Figure 2
Annual Soviet GNP Growth Rates.
Percent
12
10
8
4
2
Annual growth rate
Three-year moving average
Figure 3
Growth Rates of Soviet GNP and Agriculture
Percent
40
�20
I I 1 I I 1 1 I I I 1 I I .,I 1 1 I I I I 11J 1 1 ii
I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I
�2 1951 55 60 65 70 75 80 �30 1951 t4 60 65 70 75 80
economy-14 percent of GNP produced in 1980
(measured in 1970 prices). As a result of geoclimatic
limitations and cropping practices, Soviet agricultural
output is subject to large variations.� It is not at all
unusual for agricultural output to fall from one year
to the next, but such declines usually have been
followed by a return to more normal weather and
therefore a more normal level of output from agricul-
ture in the following years. The recovery shows up as
a very high growth rate of GNP in the year after a
shortfall in agriculture, producing a distinct saw-tooth
pattern to annual growth rates in GNP (figure 3).
While agriculture is the major source of sharp annual
swings in GNP growth, industry, with its large weight
in total GNP (37 percent in 1980 in 1970 prices),
appears to be the major source of the secular decline
'9 Year-to-year variation in Soviet agricultural output is three times
greater than in the United States. See Douglas B. Diamond and
W. Lee Davis, "Comparative Growth in Output and Productivity in
U.S. and U.S.S.R. Agriculture," JEC, 1979, vol. 2, p. 20.
in growth. Industrial growth, although generally ex-
ceeding that of GNP, has slowed from the 8- to 12-
percent-per-year range in the 1950s to the 3- to 4-
percent-per-year range in the late 1970s (figure 4).
The Evolving Structure of the Soviet Economy
The structure of the Soviet economy has changed
dramatically since 1950 (figure 5).20 By far the most
important change has been the decline in the share of
GNP produced in agriculture and the steady increase
in the share produced in industry. Other notable
trends are the growing importance of transportation
and�surprisingly�the declining relative importance
of the service sector.
" The percentage shares of GNP are calculated in 1970 factor-cost
prices. A more accurate portrayal of changes in the structure of
GNP would be obtained by computing the shares in current factor-
cost prices. Unfortunately, those data are not currently available.
16
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Figure 4
Growth Rates of Soviet GNP and Industry
Percent
12
10
6
Ii! 1 1 1 1 I
�2 1951 55
I 1 1 1 1 11,1 1 I 1 J I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 I
Figure 5
Distribution of Soviet GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
60
66 65 70 75 80 1950
As a result of the Soviet Union's long-term policy of
emphasizing industrial development, the share of
GNP created in industry has increased steadily from
20 percent in 1950 to 37 percent in 1980. The rate of
growth of industry's share of GNP has been slowing,
however, and has changed little in the late 1970s.
Among the branches of industry, the machinery and
chemicals branches have had the highest growth
rates. The machinery share of GNP has risen from 6
percent in 1950 to 14 percent in 1980, while the
chemicals share has risen from 1 to 3 percent of
GNP.'
Agriculture's share of GNP has dropped from 31
percent in 1950 to 14 percent in 1980. As discussed
above, fluctuation in the index of agricultural produc-
tion is the dominant cause of fluctuation in the growth
rate of GNP. Since the relative importance of agricul-
ture in the Soviet economy probably will continue to
2 See JEC, Industry, for an analysis of the development of Soviet
industry.
17
55
60
65
70
75
80
decrease, the repercussions of its future fluctuations
on GNP growth should diminish.
The demand for transportation, communications, and
trade services is derived for the most part from the
growth of industry and construction. Consequently,
the share of these three sectors in GNP has grown
significantly:
Percentage Share of GNP
1950
1960
1970
1980
Transportation
3.9
6.8
8.7
10.3
Communications
0.6
0.7
0.9
1.2
Trade
5.0
6.8
, 7.3
7.7
In particular, the increase in the share of GNP
produced in the transportation sector can be attribut-
ed to the increasing size of the industrial sector, which
relies on transportation to move raw materials and
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products; the increasing specialization within indus-
try, which leads to more transportation of semiproc-
essed materials; and the shifting of industrial produc-
tion toward Siberia, which leads to longer shipping
distances to reach the European population centers.
Within the transport sector itself, the share of rail
transport has been steadily falling: rail freight trans-
port accounted for 86 percent of total freight revenue
in 1950 in the sample used in this study to estimate
the contribution of this sector to GNP and only 47
percent in 1980, as air and truck freight transport
expanded rapidly from minuscule levels.
The share of GNP produced in the service sector has
declined from 29 percent in 1950 to 20 percent in
1970." This decline has been shared by almost all of
the individual services; only science has shown any
appreciable growth as a share of GNP, rising from 1.1
percent of GNP in 1950 to 2.3 percent in 1980. The
decreasing share of GNP produced in the service
sector is contrary to the experience of most developing
nations. Normally an increase in the income level of a
nation leads to above-average growth in the demand
for services. The below-average growth of services in
the USSR suggests a deliberate policy to restrain the
development of services.
Changing Patterns of Output Use
Accompanying the shifts in the producing structure of
the Soviet economy has been a changing pattern of
output use since 1950. The dominant trend is the
increasing share of GNP which is allocated to invest-
ment at the expense of most other use categories.
Measured in 1970 prices, expenditures on investment
have climbed from 14 percent of GNP in 1950 to 33
percent in 1980 (figure 6). The growth of investment
reflects partially the traditional Soviet emphasis on
growth through rapid increases in capital stock.
Moreover, there has been a pronounced change in the
structure of investment. The share of expenditures for
the sum of producer durables and new construction
allocated to producer durables alone has risen from 22
percent in 1950 to 39 percent in 1980." This shift
" The service sector includes housing, utilities, repair and personal
care, recreation, education, health, science, credit and insurance,
and government administrative services.
" Table A-6. This change in the structure of Soviet investment is
analyzed by Boris Rumor, The Dynamics of the Capital Coefficient
of USSR Industrial Output: Investment Process in Soviet Industry,
National Council for Soviet and East European Research, 1981.
Figure 6
Distribution of Soviet GNP by End Use
Percent
100
80
60
40
20
0 1950
Other goy amen expe4lturei
I I 1 I 1 ?.1 I 1 1 I 1 I I
55 60 65 70 75 80
reflects the increasing emphasis toward reequipping
and modernizing existing production sites rather than
creating entirely new facilities. The growth rate for
investment has slowed sharply, however, from 11.5
percent per year for the 1950s to an average of 5.8
percent per year since 1960. The direct consequence
of slower investment growth is a smaller contribution
to GNP growth through a larger capital stock.
Defense is a major claimant on Soviet resources.
Although no data are presented here on total defense
expenditures, it is believed that total defense expendi-
tures amounted to 11 to 13 percent of GNP in 1970
and have increased at an average annual rate of 4 to 5
percent per year since 1965." Since this rate is
somewhat above the growth in GNP during that
period, the share of GNP allocated to defense has
"` Allocation of Resources in the Soviet Union-1980, US Con-
gress, Joint Economic Committee, Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C., 1981, p. 124.
18
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increased slightly since 1965. Total defense expendi-
tures are not presented as a separate end-use category
because we believe that some defense expenditures are
contained in several other components of GNP. In-
vestment probably includes the procurement of com-
mon use durables, such as trucks and transport air-
craft, and the construction of military facilities.
Science probably is very heavily weighted toward
defense expenditures. Other defense expenditures
could well be contained in administration, education,
and health expenditures. Because of many uncertain-
ties, no estimate is made here of the values of defense
expenditures included in the other end-use categories.
Estimates of total defense expenditures have been
made by the CIA independent of the GNP accounts.
These data are presented for reference in appendix C.
Consumption has declined as a share of GNP from 60
percent in 1950 to 54 percent in 1980. Consumption
consists of two principal components, goods and serv-
ices, which have shown similar growth rates. The
consumption of goods has grown at an annual rate of
4.3 percent per year since 1950, and services at 4.2
percent compared with 4.7 percent for GNP. As a
result, the consumer goods share of GNP has declined
from 38 percent in 1950 to 34 percent in 1980, while
the consumer services share has declined from 22 to
20 percent. Within consumption, there have been
sizable structural changes. The consumption of food
has declined sharply as a share of GNP, from 32
percent in 1950 to 23 percent in 1980, while the
consumption of soft goods and durables has risen as a
share of GNP from 6 percent in 1950 to 11 percent in
1980.
Trends in per capita consumption are more useful
indicators of the impact on living standards of re-
sources allocated to consumption than are trends in
total consumption. Measured at factor cost, Soviet per
capita consumption has grown at an average annual
rate of 2.9 percent since 1950, but only 2.2 percent
since 1970�reflecting both the overall slowdown in
GNP growth and the falling share of consumption in
GNP.
Soviet Growth in International Perspective
Without doubt the Soviet economy has achieved rapid
growth since 1950. This performance, however, can
best be interpreted and understood when compared
19
with growth trends in other countries during the same
period. These trends can be measured in terms of
GNP growth, priorities in output use, and growth in
per capita consumption.
Comparisons of GNP Growth. Table 1 compares the
average annual rates of growth of GNP for the Soviet
Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for
selected OECD countries." For the entire 1951-79
period, the figure for the Soviet Union is roughly in
the middle of the OECD range. Japan, West Germa-
ny, Spain, and Turkey clearly achieved faster growth
than the Soviet Union, and several other nations
achieved rates close to the Soviet figure. In compari-
son with the United States, the Soviet Union consis-
tently enjoyed a higher growth rate until the late
1970s. The average annual growth rate of Soviet
GNP is a full percentage point higher than that of the
United States for the entire 1951-79 period. Since
1970, however, the growth rate of Soviet GNP has
declined steadily, while the US growth rate has
continued at roughly an unchanged tempo. As a
result, the US and Soviet economies grew by almost
the same average rates in the 1970s.
Priorities in Output Use. Another way of comparing
the performance of the Soviet and OECD economies
is to examine the patterns of output use. Table 2
shows the percentage distribution of the GDP of
several OECD countries and of the GNP of the Soviet
Union among consumption, investment, and all other
expenditures. The data for the Soviet Union are not
strictly comparable with those for the OECD coun-
tries because Soviet Government expenditures for
health, education, and physical culture are included in
consumption. These expenditures were equal to 5.5
percent of Soviet GNP in 1970 and serve to inflate
Soviet consumption data relative to the OECD data."
The share of Soviet GNP allocated to investment,
measured in 1970 prices, has steadily increased�
from 14 percent in 1950 to 32 percent in 1979�while
" The difference between GNP and GDP for the Soviet Union is
negligible and can be ignored for these comparisons.
JEC, Consumption Comparison, makes careful adjustments for
these definitional differences and obtains similar changes in the
consumption shares to those shown in table 2. The absolute levels of
the adjusted consumption shares, as expected, are higher.
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Table 1
Percent
Average Annual Rate of Growth of National Product for Selected
OECD Countries (GDP) and for the USSR (GNP)
1951-55 a
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-79
195179a
Total OECD
NA
NA
5.2
4.8
3.1
4.0
NA
Of which
Canada
5.2
4.0
5.7
4.8
5.0
3.7
4.8
United States
4.2
2.3
4.6
3.1
2.3
4.4
3.4
Japan
7.2
8.6
10.0
12.2
5.0
5.9
8.3
Australia
3.8
4.0
4.8
6.0
3.5
2.4
4.2
New Zealand
3.8
4.0
4.9
2.7
4.0
0.3
3.3
Finland
5.0
4.1
4.8
4.8
3.9
2.5
4.2
France
3.7
5.0
5.8
5.4
4.0
3.7
4.6
West Germany
9.2
6.5
5.0
4.4
2.1
4.0
5.1
Italy
5.6
5.5
5.2
6.2
2.4
3.8
4.8
Netherlands
5.9
4.0
4.8
5.5
3.2
3.1
4.4
Norway
3.8
3.3
4.8
3.7
4.6
4.2
4.1
Spain
5.2
3.2
8.5
6.2
5.5
2.5
5.3
Sweden
3.4
3.4
5.2
3.9
2.7
1.1
3.4
Switzerland
4.9
4.3
5.2
4.2
0.8
0.9
3.5
Turkey
8.1
4.6
4.8
6.6
7.5
4.1
6.0
United Kingdom
3.9
2.6
3.1
2.5
2.0
2.4
2.7
USSR
5.5
5.9
5.0
5.2
3.7
3.0
4.8
Data in column I for Japan and the United Kingdom are for 1953-
55; for Finland, France, West Germany, Italy, and the Nether-
lands-1952-55; and for New Zealand and Spain-1955 only. The
corresponding data in column 7 are for 1953-79, 1952-79, and 1955-
79, respectively.
NA = not available.
Sources: OECD data are from National Accounts &OECD
Countries, OECD, Paris, 1981, except for the value for total OECD
for 1961-65. The latter value is from the 1980 edition of the same
publication. USSR data are from table A-5.
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Table 2
Percentage Distribution of National Product by End Use in
Selected OECD Countries (GDP) and in the USSR (GNP)
Expenditures
Consumption
Investment
All Other
1950
1960
1970
1979
1950
1960
1970
1979
1950
1960
1970
1979
Total OECD
NA
60.1
59.3
61.0
NA
20.2
22.8
21.2
NA
19.7
17.9
17.8
Of which
Canada
55.2
57.5
53.3
57.0
21.1
22.5
21.7
22.2
23.7
20.0
25.0
20.8
United States
62.1
60.9
62.2
64.6
19.5
18.2
18.4
17.4
18.4
20.9
19.4
18.0
Japan
63.2 a
63.2
54.4
55.4
15.1 a
23.1
34.9
33.2
21.7 .
13.7
10.7
11.4
Australia
67.5
61.5
57.7
59.3
24.4
24.6
26.5
21.2
8.1
13.9
15.8
19.5
New Zealand
NA
68.2
59.9
62.4
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Finland
52.8 b
54.4
55.1
54.1
25.5 b
30.1
28.6
23.2
21.7 b
15.5
16.3
22.7
France
60.0 b
60.3
59.1
62.6
17.3 b
19.3
23.8
21.5
22.7 b
20.4
17.1
15.9
West Germany
52.5 b
52.0
53.3
54.7
20.1 b
24.0
24.1
22.2
27.4 b
24.0
22.6
23.1
Italy
66.1 b
59.4
63.6
62.4
15.6 b
26.0
24.4
18.9
18.3 b
14.6
12.0
18.7
Netherlands
56.9 b
51.8
57.4
59.8
18.6 b
21.6
25.3
20.8
24.5 b
26.6
17.3
19.4
Norway
61.1
57.9
54.1
48.6
27.3
26.3
28.2
26.3
11.6
15.8
17.7
25.1
Spain
72.9 c
69.9
67.4
68.8
15.6 c
16.7
23.1
20.0
11.5 c
13.4
9.5
11.2
Sweden
62.3
56.8
52.3
52.5
16.7
20.6
21.6
19.0
21.0
22.6
26.1
28.5
Switzerland
67.4
58.7
58.4
63.9
16.2
23.7
25.5
23.6
16.4
17.6
16.1
12.5
Turkey
77.3
79.7
73.9
72.9
16.8
15.5
19.4
16.6
5.9
4.8
6.7
10.5
United Kingdom
62.6 a
63.7
61.0
61.4
12.7 a
16.7
20.7
17.9
24.7 a
18.6
18.3
20.7
USSR
59.9
57.7
54.2
53.2
14.2
24.2
28.2
32.5
25.8
18.1
17.6
14.3
a The data are for 1952.
b The data are for 1951.
c The data are for 1954.
NA = not available.
Sources: OECD data are from National Acounts of OECD
Countries, OECD, Paris, 1981, except for the value for total OECD
for 1960. The latter value is from the 1980 edition of the same
publication. The USSR data are from table A-11. All percentages,
except for total OECD, are calculated using data expressed in
domestic currencies in constant prices. The total OECD data are
calculated using data expressed in 1975 US dollars.
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Table 3
Percent
Average Annual Rate of Growth of Per Capita Consumption in
Selected OECD Countries and the USSR
195155a
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-79
1951-79 a
Total OECD
NA
NA
3.7
3.7
2.8
3.1
NA
Of which
Canada
2.5
2.1
2.6
2.7
5.2
2.4
2.9
United States
1.5
1.0
2.8
2.7
2.0
3.4
2.2
Japan
7.0
6.8
7.9
8.6
4.8
3.9
6.6
Australia
0.4
0.9
2.5
2.9
2.5
1.1
1.7
New Zealand
NA
NA
1.5
0
1.2
0.1
0.7
Finland
3.7
2.0
5.0
4.1
3.6
1.5
3.4
France
3.7
3.2
4.5
4.0 .
4.1
3.6
3.9
West Germany
8.1
5.5
4.1
4.0
2.6
3.7
4.6
Italy
3.9
4.1
5.3
6.1
1.8
2.6
4.0
Netherlands
3.4
2.3
4.9
4.9
2.3
3.3
3.5
Norway
1.8
2.2
2.6
2.9
3.2
1.9
2.5
Spain
4.6
1.5
7.3
4.8
4.8
1.6
4.1
Sweden
1.8
1.8
3.6
2.3
2.3
0.9
2.2
Switzerland
1.4
2.3
3.1
3.0
1.4
2.1
2.2
Turkey
5.4
1.9
1.8
3.0
4.5
1.7
3.1
United Kingdom
3.9
2.2
2.0
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.2
USSR
3.1
3.8
2.1
4.3
2.6
1.7
3.0
a Data in column 1 for Japan and the United Kingdom are for 1953-
55; for Finland, France, West Germany, Italy, and the Nether-
lands-1952-55; and for Spain-1955 only. The corresponding data
in column 7 are for 1953-79, 1952-79, and 1955-79, respectively.
The value in column 7 for New Zealand is for 1961-79.
NA = not available.
Sources: See sources to table 1 for the OECD consumption data. The
USSR consumption data are from table A-9. The population data
for all countries are from World Population 1979, US Bureau of the
Census, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1980, and
Demographic Estimates for Countries With a Population of 10
Million or More: 1981, US Bureau of the Census, Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1981, and World Population
1977, US Bureau of the Census, Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C., 1978.
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the share allocated to consumption has decreased by 7
percentage points. The only other country to have a
similar change in output-use patterns is Japan, where
investment has risen from 15 to 33 percent of GDP,
while private consumption has fallen from 63 to 55
percent. Most of the other OECD countries show
either stable patterns of distribution or shifts from
private consumption to other (mostly government)
expenditures.
Growth in Per Capita Consumption. Table 3 com-
pares the average annual growth rates of per capita
consumption for selected OECD countries and the
USSR. There is considerable variance among coun-
tries and time periods. The USSR compares quite
favorably with most OECD countries but lags well
behind Japan and West Germany. Declining Soviet
growth shows up clearly in the Soviet data, with the
growth rate of per capita consumption falling to 1.7
percent per year in 1976-79.
How Reliable Are the Synthetic
Measures of Soviet Growth?
The data used above to describe and interpret Soviet
economic growth since 1950 are based on convention-
al Western national income concepts. While they rely
on published official Soviet data, they reflect numer-
ous judgments about both the meaning of Soviet data
and the best procedures for constructing the Western-
style accounts. The reliability and sensitivity of the
synthetic GNP data can be examined in terms of the:
(1) sensitivity of the growth rate of GNP to the base
year used, (2) patterns in the residual component of
the accounts, (3) comparison with official Soviet NMP
data, and (4) comparison with other Western esti-
mates of Soviet GNP.
Sensitivity to the Base Year Used
When the prices of one year are used to measure
growth over a 30-year span, growth rates in years far
from the base year can be distorted because of
changes in intersectoral price relationships." As a
check on the severity of this problem, current-price
" Bergson concludes that the long-term decline of the Soviet GNP
growth rate is understated on this account. See Abram Bergson,
"Conclusions," The USSR in the 1980s, NATO-Directorate of
Economic Affairs, NATO, Brussels, 1978, pp. 231-242.
23
Table 4
Percentage Distribution of 1960 and 1976 Soviet
GNP by Sector of Origin in Current and 1970
Established Prices
1960
1976
Sector
1960
Prices
1970
Prices
1970
Prices
1976
Prices
Industry
47.2
42.1
47.9
48.9
Construction
7.1
7.3
8.0
7.9
Agriculture
17.5
25.1
16.8
16.1
Transportation
7.2
5.8
7.9
8.4
Communications
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.8
Trade
4.6
4.5
5.0
4.9
Services
13.0
12.0
11.5
11.1
Other
2.8
2.6
1.9
1.9
Sources: The data in 1970 prices are derived by using the indexes in
table A-5 and the established-price weights in table D-7. The
methodology is described in appendix A. See footnote 28 for the data
in 1960 and 1976 prices.
GNP accounts for the USSR were constructed for
1960 and 1976." The distribution of GNP by sector of
origin in 1960 and 1976 in current and 1970 estab-
lished prices is compared in table 4." In 1960 the
primary difference is that agriculture has a lower
weight in 1960 prices than in 1970 prices, a result
which reflects the fact that price increases for agricul-
tural output between 1960 and 1970 were greater
than those for other sectors.
The rates of growth of GNP obtained by using 1960,
1970, and 1976 as a base year are compared in the
following tabulation:
Average Annual Percent Growth of GNP
Period 1960 Prices 1970 Prices 1976 Prices
1951-60
6.6
6.2
6.1
1961-70
5.5
5.3
5.2
1971-80
3.4
3.2
3.1
" These accounts are not included in this report, but were
constructed using the same methodology as described in this report
for 1970.
Because of the problems inherent in using Soviet-established
prices for measuring the growth of GNP (discussed in part II) a
more informative comparison would be in factor-cost prices. At this
time, however, data for 1960 and 1976 in current factor-cost prices
are not available.
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The data clearly show that Soviet GNP grows more
rapidly when measured in 1960 prices than in 1970
prices, but that the differences are not large. The use
of 1976 prices appears to make little difference in the
growth rate of GNP compared to 1970 prices."
Patterns in the GNP Residual
In the 1970 GNP accounts for the Soviet Union,
certain expenditures cannot be identified explicitly.
These outlays not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.) com-
prise a residual component within the base-year ac-
counts. Conceptually, this category includes defense
expenditures n.e.c., changes in strategic reserves, oth-
er unidentified expenditures, and a statistical discrep-
ancy. In addition, we have not been able to calculate
constant-price indexes of inventory change or net
exports; therefore, both of these quantities are also
conceptually part of the outlays n.e.c. component in
the time-series data. Outlays n.e.c. is calculated as a
residual. Total GNP is derived from the sector-of-
origin data. Then the sum of identified end-use
components is subtracted from total GNP. The result-
ing value is outlays n.e.c.
Since total GNP should be the same regardless of
whether it is calculated as the sum of the sector-of-
origin or of the end-use components, the reliability of
our GNP estimates can be assessed by examining the
level and the trend in the residual component. The
level of outlays n.e.c. should be well above zero.
Although inventory change and net exports can be
negative, the other elements of outlays n.e.c. (mainly
some defense expenditures) should be sufficiently
large to ensure that total outlays n.e.c. is positive. The
reasonableness of the trend in the residual can be
checked by using some additional data and making
some strong assumptions about defense expenditures.
Data are available on a large share of inventory
change in current prices, but a suitable deflator is not.
The fluctuations in this component of outlays n.e.c.,
however, generally should be in the same direction in
both constant and current prices.
" This comparison may understate somewhat the sensitivity to the
base year used because the same activity indexes were used with all
three sets of weights. If the indexes were recalculated using 1960 or
1976 prices to combine their various subindexes, then the difference
in the average GNP growth rate probably would be increased
slightly.
The Soviet foreign trade statistical handbook, Vnesh-
nyaya torgovlya SSSR v 19�godu, now publishes
volume indexes of exports and imports. For the pur-
pose of this exercise, we can assume that these indexes
are accurate reflections of exports and imports in
1970 prices.
Although total defense expenditures are estimated to
have grown at 4 to 5 percent per year since 1965,3' the
portion included in outlays n.e.c. may have increased
at a quite different rate. Nevertheless, for the purpose
of this exercise, it is assumed that all of the unidenti-
fied expenditures in the base-year accounts are de-
fense expenditures and that they have increased at a
rate of 4.5 percent per year since 1965.
The sum of inventory change in current prices and net
exports and partial defense expenditures in constant
prices provides a synthetic measure of outlays n.e.c.
which should indicate whether the actual trend in
outlays n.e.c. is plausible. The ruble values of the
synthetic measure and the actual outlays n.e.c. com-
ponent of end-use GNP are compared in figure 7. The
year-to-year changes in the synthetic measure usually
are in the same direction as changes in outlays n.e.c.
until 1978; therefore, outlays n.e.c. appears to be a
reasonable reflection of those expenditures that can-
not be explicitly identified. The synthetic measure
shows an upward trend while outlays n.e.c. shows
little change prior to 1978. The difference in the
trends can be interpreted as an indication of the
existence of inflation. The imprecision in all of the
data underlying this comparison, however, precludes
any inference about the actual rate of inflation.
After 1978, outlays n.e.c. decrease rapidly and be-
come implausibly low to represent a large portion of
defense expenditures plus inventory change and net
exports. The cause of this decline is not known.
Arithmetically, it could result from an underestimate
of the growth of GNP or an overestimate of the
growth of the other end-use components.
See footnote 24.
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Figure 7
The Outlays n.e.c. Residual and
a Synthetic Measure
Billion Rubles
Figure 8
Annual Growth Rates of Soviet Adjusted GNP
and Net Material Product
Percent
60
Synthetic measure
50
40
30
20
10
0 1965 70 75
Outlays n.e.c.
14
12
10
2
Net matetial product
Adjusted GNP
80 �4 .1951 55 60 65 70 75 79
Comparisons With Official Soviet Data
Another assessment of the reliability of our GNP
accounts can be made by comparing the official
Soviet NMP data in constant prices with a synthetic
measure of NMP derived from the GNP accounts.
NMP measures the value added (less depreciation) in
industry, construction, agriculture, freight transporta-
tion, business communications, trade, and "other
branches" of material production. The synthetic
measure of NMP constructed here consists of the
entire value added in industry, construction, agricul-
ture, trade, general agricultural programs, and forest-
ry, and part of the value added of transportation and
communications.
Figure 8 compares the annual growth rates of NMP
in constant prices and the synthetic measure derived
from our GNP data. Average annual growth rates by
25
five-year periods are shown in the following
tabulation:
Five-Year Period
Average Annual Percent Growth
Adjusted GNP
Net Material
Product
1951-55
7.6
11.1
1956-60
7.1
9.1
1961-65
5.1
6.5
1966-70
5.6
7.7
1971-75
3.7
5.7
1976-80
2.6
4.2
The results show that the synthetic measure grows
more slowly than NMP but that the pattern of annual
fluctuations is quite close to that of the Soviet meas-
ure in constant prices. This result suggests that the'
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fluctuations in Soviet GNP are captured fairly accu-
rately in our data. The continued close relationship of
both measures after 1978 suggests that our estimates
of the growth rate of total GNP are accurate, and
that the apparent underestimate of outlays n.e.c. after
1978 noted above results from an overestimate of
other end-use components.
Comparisons With Other Western Estimates
A number of other estimates of Soviet GNP have
been compiled by Western scholars, although none is
as comprehensive or recent as those presented here.
Most of these estimates concern the 1950s or early
1960s. The tabulation below compares the average
annual rate of growth of total GNP derived in these
other Western studies with the corresponding value
derived in this study: "
Period
Other Western Studies
of Soviet GNP
Average Annual
Rate of Growth
Derived in This
Author
Average Annual Study (Percent)
Rate of Growth
(Percent)
1951-55
Bergson
7.6
5.5
1951-61
Moorsteen and
Powell
7.4
5.7
1951-65
Kaplan
6.3
5.5
1951-69
Cohn
5.5
5.3
1956-75
Lee
7.7
5.0
1959-64
Becker
5.8
4.8
It is readily apparent that in each case the growth rate
derived in this study is lower, and in some cases the
difference is considerable. The studies by Bergson,
Becker, and Lee estimate the growth of GNP as the
sum of end-use expenditures. About 60 percent of the
" Bergson, 1961, p. 149; Moorsteen and Powell, Soviet Capital
Stock, pp. 623-624; Kaplan, Soviet Economic Growth, p. 14; Cohn,
"Growth of the Soviet Economy," p. 17; W. T. Lee, "USSR Gross
National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128.
difference between the growth rates computed by
Becker and in this study arises from the lower growth
rate of consumption derived here (4.7 versus 3.5
percent per year). This difference in turn results
largely from Becker's use of Soviet price indexes to
deflate the retail sales data as opposed to the use of
physical quantity consumption and production data in
this study. Similarly, most of the difference between
Bergson's estimate and the one obtained here is the
much lower growth rate of consumption derived in
this study. Again, Bergson uses Soviet price indexes to
deflate the retail sales component of consumption.
Lee's data are essentially in current prices and this
undoubtedly accounts for most of the difference be-
tween his results and those obtained here.
The studies by Moorsteen and Powell, Kaplan, and
Cohn all use a set of base-year, sector-of-origin
weights and a set of corresponding production indexes
in order to estimate the growth rate of GNP. The
growth rate obtained here is lower than that of
Moorsteen and Powell primarily because of different
weights. The 1950 implicit weights for industry (a
high-growth sector) in this study are lower and the
weights for agriculture and housing (low-growth sec-
tors) are higher. The Kaplan growth rate is higher
mainly because industry is assigned a higher weight
and the average growth rate of industry is a full
percentage point higher. The Cohn growth rate is
nearly the same as the one obtained here.
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Part II
Methodology
The estimation of Soviet GNP and its change over
time presents several thorny methodological problems.
This part first summarizes the major issues in formu-
lating an accounting structure and devising a set of
synthetic prices that will be in accord with the
Western theoretical model of national income valua-
tion and growth measurement. A discussion of the
construction of our 1970 base-year accounts using
Soviet official prices and their conversion to our
synthetic prices follows.
Having described the base-year accounts, the discus-
sion then shifts to the methodological problems in-
volved in measuring the growth of Soviet GNP over
time. The central problem is how to measure the real
growth of a diverse collection of goods and services
when the relative prices and quantities are shifting.
Index number theory tells us that there is no single
answer to this question. A summary of the problem is
provided here with additional discussion. of a few
specific problems that are particularly serious in the
Soviet case. Finally, all of the indexes used to measure
the growth of the various components of GNP by
sector of origin and end use and their underlying
methodologies are described.
The Accounting Framework
The accounts used to compute GNP are partially
determined by the institutional structure of the coun-
try involved. This section first describes the account-
ing units that comprise the Soviet economy and then
describes the main financial flows involving these
units. Next a number of definitional problems are
considered and the resulting differences between the
US GNP accounts and those constructed here for the
Soviet Union are discussed.
The Accounting Units
There are four important types of accounting units in
the USSR. The first two are khozraschet enterprises
and so-called budget institutions, both of which are
27
state organizations. The other two are the collective
farm (kolkhoz), which is part state and part coopera-
tive, and the private household.
Khozraschet Enterprises. A khozraschet enterprise is
a state organization that operates on a profit-and loss-
basis. It sells its output, uses the proceeds to purchase
its inputs, and thereby obtains a profit or loss. The
enterprise, however, must regulate production in con-
formity with the highly detailed state economic plan
and is in other ways directly administered by the
government. Although it differs operationally from a
private corporation in the United States, a khozras-
chet enterprise, when viewed from a GNP accounting
standpoint, is similar to and treated much like a
private corporation. It is similar in that the financial
relations between a khozraschet enterprise and the
state are conducted on a net rather than a gross basis.
The enterprise is expected to be managed sufficiently
well to obtain enough profits to finance certain activi-
ties, and the amount of government revenues obtained
from the enterprise depends on its performance."
An enterprise's profit is disposed of according to
administrative rules. Most profits go to the state
budget, much like an income tax in the United States.
In 1970, for example, 59 percent of the profits of
khozraschet enterprises were turned over to the bud-
get. The government takes such a large share of the
profits because it is directly involved in the capital
transactions of khozraschet enterprises, contrary to
the situation in a private US corporation. Most capital
investment is paid for by allocations from the state
budget. Retained profits of enterprises are used not
only for capital investment, but also for a variety of
" It should not be forgotten that a khozraschet enterprise is a state
organization. All of its capital stock is state owned and can be taken
away without compensation, just as the profits derived from the
operation of the state-owned assets also can be taken away. The
director of an enterprise is appointed by the state and is charged
with fulfillment in the most economical manner of the production
plan assigned to the enterprise.
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managerial incentives, employee welfare, and other
purposes. Indeed, some of the incentive funds are
considered to be labor payments in GNP accounting
rather than profits.
Although khozraschet enterprises normally are ex-
pected to be profitable, many cannot be so under
existing prices. For example, many meat and milk
processing enterprises must be subsidized heavily
because the government has repeatedly raised pro-
curement prices for many agricultural products while
holding their retail prices constantm
Budget Institutions. A budget institution receives the
funds necessary for its current operations from the
state budget and returns any receipts accruing from
its operations to the budget. Budget institutions tend
to be organizations conducting government adminis-
trative operations or providing services to the popula-
tion at little or no direct charge. Government adminis-
tration is carried out by organizations such as the
State Planning Committee (Gosplan), the Central
Statistical Administration, the Ministry of Defense,
and municipal government organizations. Organiza-
tions producing consumer services include the health
and education ministries, which collect only modest
fees, and the municipal service organizations, some of
which are expected to collect sufficient fees to offset
most of their current expenses.
In general, the accounts of budget institutions are less
detailed than those of khozraschet enterprises. In
particular, depreciation allowances are not charged as
a current expense. The Narkhoz, therefore, does not
include depreciation of the capital stock of budget
institutions in its depreciation data.
Budget institutions play a large role in the Soviet
economy. According to Soviet capital stock data,
budget institutions possessed capital valued at 102.4
billion rubles on 1 January 1973, 10 percent of the
total. It is likely that 20 to 25 percent of the labor
force is employed in budget institutions, although
exact data are not available. The borderline between
" See Vladimir G. Treml, Agricultural Subsidies in the Soviet
Union, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
Foreign Economic Report No. 15, Washington, D.C., 1978, for
estimates of the size, growth, and distribution of this subsidy.
budget and khozraschet enterprises has been a shift-
ing one, but there has been a long-run tendency to
increase the sphere of khozraschet enterprises in
order to achieve greater control and efficiency.
Collective Farms. In the USSR the collective farm, or
kolkhoz, is part state and part cooperative. The land
is state owned but given rent free to the kolkhoz.
Members of the collective supposedly elect the direc-
tor, and the net proceeds from farm activities are
distributed to the members. In fact, the kolkhoz is
now very similar to a state farm, or sovkhoz. The
director is for all practical purposes appointed by the
state, the state assigns a production and procurement
plan, and the kolkhoz member is now guaranteed
payment for his labor under a wage system like that of
state farms.
For accounting purposes, however, kolkhozy present
several problems. Financial data in the Narkhoz and
other sources tend to report only on state organiza-
tions, omitting kolkhoz statistics. Kolkhoz accounts,
therefore, have to be compiled from scattered sources.
For example, earnings are retained and used for
investment but are not included in Soviet data on
profits. In addition, kolkhozy perform a considerable
amount of industrial and construction work that is
difficult to quantify. As a result, our estimate of
agricultural value added is probably overstated
somewhat.
Private Households. The final accounting unit in the
reconstructed GNP accounts for the Soviet Union is
the private household. Private citizens carry out pro-
duction, consumption, and investment activities. Their
production is centered in agriculture, housing, and
other services. In agriculture, production from private
plots is sold and consumed in kind. Households con-
tribute to the construction component of GNP by
sector of origin through private housing construction,
and they provide numerous services, including repair
and personal care, education, health, recreation, and
housing repair services. The operation of owner-
occupied housing is included in the housing sector.
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The Main Financial Flows
The nature of the accounting units determines the
main financial flows used in the GNP accounts. For
each type of unit incomes and outlays can be listed.
The output of a khozraschet enterprise is sold to other
enterprises for use in current production or is allocat-
ed to one of the end uses: private consumption,
investment, government consumption, or exports. A
khozraschet enterprise buys goods and services for its
own production needs and spends some of the funds at
its disposal on wages, social insurance contributions,
depreciation, and taxes. Sales less expenses equal
profits and other net income. These financial flows are
listed below:
Khozraschet Enterprise Income and Outlay Account
Outlays
Incomes
1.1 Goods and services
1.2 Wages
1.3 Social insurance
1.4 Depreciation
1.5 Indirect taxes
1.6 Retained profits
1.7 Profits paid to the state budget
1.8 Special charges for education,
research and development, and
other
1.9 Miscellaneous charges
1.10 Subsidies received (negative
value)
1.11 Sales to other enterprises
on current account
1.12 Sales to private
consumption
1.13 Sales to investment
1.14 Sales to government
consumption
1.15 Sales to export
A budget institution normally does not sell its output;
instead it receives its funds through the state budget.
In the US GNP accounts, the output of a government
organization is valued as the sum of its current
operational expenditures. A Soviet budget institution
is treated in the same manner here. The deficiency in
this approach, as is the case in the US accounts, is its
failure to take account of the contributions of fixed
and working capital. The income and outlay accounts
of a budget institution are as follows:
Budget Institution Income and Outlay Account
Outlays
Incomes
2.1 Goods and services
2.2 Wages
2.3 Military pay
2.4 Military subsistence
2.5 Social insurance
2.6 Sales receipts (transfer
to budget)
2.7 Budget allocation for operating
expenditures
2.8 Sales for intermediate consump-
tion to enterprises
2.9 Sales to consumers
29
There is some double counting here for institutions
that sell some goods or services, because the list of
incomes includes both sales receipts and the entire
budget allocation. The sales receipts are also listed as
an outlay (item 2.6) when they are transferred to the
state budget. An example is a theater or museum that
operates on budgetary allocations but collects admis-
sion fees. The admission fees would be listed both as
an income under item 2.9 and as an outlay under item
2.6.
Constructing accounts for the kolkhozy is more diffi-
cult because of the scarcity of relevant data. Kolkhoz
output is either sold to state procurement agencies,
sold directly to state enterprises, sold in kolkhoz
village markets, or distributed to members of the
collective. In addition, the kolkhoz is expected to pay
depreciation and to make sufficient profits to cover
investment needs and pay taxes. These flows are
outlined below:
Kolkhoz Income and Outlay Account
Outlays
Incomes
3.1 Goods and services
3.2 Money wages of kolkhoz
members
3.3 Money wages of hired
workers
3.4 Social insurance
3.5 Depreciation
3.6 Taxes
3.7 In kind distributions to
kolkhoz members
3.8 Retained income
3.9 Sales to procurement organiza-
tions for resale
3.10 Sales for consumption
3.11 In kind distributions to
kolkhoz members
3.12 Sales to kolkhoz markets
The private household account is concerned with the
production of goods and services, as well as with
consumption and investment. As producers, house-
holds sell agricultural production from their private
plots, rent their owner-occupied housing to them-
selves, sell various services, and sell newly constructed
housing. Some of the values in the account are
imputed rather than monetary flows. An example is
imputed rent of owner-occupied housing, which is
based on the rental rate for state-owned housing and
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estimated expenditures for maintenance. Household
Figure 9
financial flows are categorized as follows:
Household Income and Outlay Account
Outlays
Incomes
4.1 Goods and services
4.2 Net earnings from sales of
goods and services
4.3 Imputed wages
4.4 Imputed net rent
4.5 Consumption in kind of
private plot output
4.6 Investment in kind of live-
stock
4.7 Imputed earnings from pri-
vate housing construction
4.8 Rent of owner-occupied housing
4.9 Sales of services
4.10 Sales of new housing
4.11 Sales of agricultural products
to the state and private consumption
4.12 Imputed sales of in kind con-
sumption of private plot output
4.13 Imputed sales of in kind invest-
ment in livestock
Definitions and Conventions
Sector Classifications. Three measures of GNP are
calculated, based alternatively on end use, income
flows, and sector of origin. The end uses are, as in
Western accounts, consumption, investment, govern-
ment, and net exports. The detailed end-use catego-
ries are listed in figure 9. Consumption is divided into
goods and services. Goods comprise four types of food
(animal products, basic foods, processed foods, and
beverages), soft goods, and durables. Services com-
prise housing rents (cash and imputed), utilities, trans-
portation, communications, repair and personal care,
recreation, education, and health. Some services are
purchased by consumers, and some are partly paid for
by the government." Other services either are not
available to Soviet consumers, or there are no data
with which to estimate them. For example, financial
and real estate services furnished to households are
negligible, and privately supplied services of lawyers,
doctors, dentists, and teachers cannot be estimated
adequately, especially over time. Our 1970 weights,
however, do include some estimates of private health
and educational services.
Soviet investment differs from the end-use category in
the US GNP accounts by the inclusion of investment
in kind in livestock and expenditures on capital repair.
Contrary to Western practice, the Soviets make de-
preciation deductions for capital repair and account
" See JEC, Consumption, for a discussion of the rationale for
including government-paid services with consumption.
Soviet End-Use and Sector-of-Origin GNP Categories
End-Use Categories
Sector-of-Origin Categories
Consumption
Consumer goods
Food
Animal products
Processed foods
Basic foods
Beverages
Soft goods
Durables
Consumer services
Housing
Utilities
Transportation
Communications
Repair and personal care
Recreation
Education
Health
Investment
New fixed investment
Machinery and equipment
Construction and other
capital outlays
Net additions to livestock
Capital repair
Other government expenditures
Government administrative
services
General agricultural pro-
grams
Forestry
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
Culture
Municipal services
Civilian police
Research and development
Outlays n.e.c.
Industry
Ferrous metals
Nonferrous metals
Fuel
Electric power
Machinery
Chemicals
Wood, pulp, and paper
Construction materials
Light industry
Food industry
Other industry
Construction
Agriculture
Transportation
Communications
Trade
Services
Housing
Utilities
Repair and personal care
Recreation
Education
Health
Science
Credit and insurance
Government administrative
services
General agricultural programs
Forestry
State administration and the
administrative organs of
social organizations
Culture
Municipal services
Civilian police
Military personnel
Other branches
for these expenditures separately from current repair.
In the United States, some repairs of this sort are
considered current expense and not included in GNP;
others are capitalized and included with new fixed
investment. The Soviet investment expenditures re-
ported in the Narkhoz include investment by state
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enterprises, the government, and kolkhozy for ma-
chinery and equipment, construction-installation
work, design work, and other capital outlays, and also
investment by private households for housing. New
fixed investment, as defined in the reconstructed GNP
accounts for the USSR, also includes net additions to
livestock, which are part of inventory investment in
the US accounts. In contrast to the United States, the
Soviets include the cost of installing machinery in
construction expenditures. These expenses would be
part of investment in machinery in the United States.
Because of the different scope of government activity
in the Soviet Union, government expenditures are
treated somewhat differently than in US GNP. The
Soviet Government provides a wide range of consumer
services without charge. Government current expendi-
tures for health, education, and recreational services
are classified here as consumption rather than as
government expenditures. The government, through
the state budget, also purchases a large share of the
investment goods and distributes them to various
organizations. These expenditures are treated as in-
vestment rather than as government expenditures.
Investment in the US accounts includes only private
investment; government investment is included in
government expenditures. Included in government
expenditures for the USSR are current outlays for
government administrative services, research and de-
velopment, and a part of defense expenditures. Gov-
ernment administrative services in turn consist of
outlays on cultural activities, municipal services, civil-
ian police, general agricultural programs, forestry,
and state administration and the administrative or-
gans of social organizations.
The second basis of classifying GNP is by type of
income. This approach is not used in computing the
growth of real GNP, but is used to construct the base-
year GNP weights. The principal types of household
incomes are state wages and salaries, kolkhoz money
wage payments, net income from sales of farm prod-
ucts, consumption in kind of private agricultural
production, earnings from private services, net rent
from owner-occupied housing, and net income from
construction of private housing. The principal types of
income in the public sector are retained earnings,
31
charges for special funds, taxes, depreciation, subsi-
dies (as negative income), deductions from profits, and
other payments to the budget.
The third basis of calculating GNP is by sector of
origin, aggregating the income earned in each sector
of production activity. The classification of the pro-
duction of goods and services conforms to Soviet
definitions: industry, construction, agriculture, trans-
portation, communications, trade, and services. Indus-
try is further broken down into 11 subsectors and
services into nine. Military personnel and a small
"other branches" sector complete the sectors of origin.
The full list of sectors is shown in figure 9.
Each type of income earned in 1970 is allocated
among the sectors of origin. The values assigned to
each sector are then summed to form the 1970
weights for each sector. Each sector weight is then
multiplied by a matching volume index to derive the
estimated growth of real GNP.
Production Boundaries. The definition of a final good
or service is not always clear in national income
accounting. The main source of uncertainty is wheth-
er government expenditures should be considered final
or intermediate output. The decision in Western
practice has been to declare all government purchases
of goods and services to be final output. The more
extensive scope of government activity in the USSR
makes definition of final output still more difficult.
One major problem concerns science expenditures. In
the United States, research and development is large-
ly financed by private corporations, and their expendi-
tures are considered intermediate purchases. The
research and development funded by governments is
considered final output, being treated as purchases
from the various industries that perform research and
development on government contract or as direct
purchases of materials and wages of government
employees. Accordingly, in the US accounts there is
not a separate comprehensive account for research
and development expenditures. In the Soviet Union,
most science expenditures are funded by the govern-
ment, and science is considered a separate sector. For
practical reasons, then, all Soviet science expenditures
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are classified as final output in our GNP accounts.
Expenditures funded by ministries and enterprises for
the final development and implementation of produc-
tion of new products are considered to be intermediate
purchases."
The value of services, such as health and education,
that are paid for by enterprises presents a similar
problem. In the United States, businesses normally
pay for health and educational services directly con-
nected with employment. Most Soviet health and
education expenses are paid for by the government,
but enterprises also are thought to pay significant
amounts. Soviet data, however, do not identify which
expenditures are for private consumption and which
are incidental to the production of goods and services.
In these accounts, we estimate the volume of enter-
prise payments in 1970 for education and then classify
all educational services as final output, contrary to
US practice.
Valuation of government services poses a question of
comparability. In the United States, government serv-
ices are valued at cost, as the sum of all current
expenditures for materials, services, and wages. This
procedure undervalues these services relative to pri-
vately provided services because there is no allowance
for profits or depreciation. In estimating Soviet GNP,
we have followed the same practice, but the more
extensive nature of government services in the USSR
leads to greater distortion on this account.
The Second Economy. The second,, or unofficial,
economy in the Soviet Union has grown rapidly, and
both its size and significance are now discussed
widely. Grossman asserts that the second economy
constitutes a large share of the Soviet economy and
that its incomplete accounting in GNP distorts meas-
ures of the size and distribution of Soviet output.
Schroeder and Greenslade argue that the most impor-
tant aspects of the second economy are already ac-
counted for in the GNP accounts as presented here."
" The exact coverage of the Soviet official data on science
expenditures is uncertain. In particular, some prototype production
may not be included.
" Gregory Grossman, "The 'Second Economy' of the USSR,"
Problems of Communism 26, September-October 1977, pp. 25-40;
and Gertrude E. Schroeder and Rush V. Greenslade, "On the
Measurement of the Second Economy in the USSR," ACES
Bulletin 21, spring 1979, pp. 3-21.
The term "second economy" normally is defined to
encompass the entire range of private productive
activity in the Soviet Union. Most of this activity is
legal, including private agricultural production, pri-
vate housing construction, and the sale of privately
produced services such as health, education, and
recreation. Although the present accounts attempt to
cover this activity, in all likelihood they do not capture
it completely.
In addition to the legal activities, a wide variety of
illegal activities are carried on, including the theft and
sale of state property and the illegal production of
certain products, the most prominent of which is
liquor." The practice in the US accounts is to exclude
illegal activities, and that rule is followed here."
Imputations. Several imputations are necessary to
account for production that takes place outside of
normal buyer-seller relationships and, hence, does not
have any monetary value assigned to it. In the Soviet
Union, the prime categories of such activity are
agricultural production consumed in kind, the value of
food and clothing given to members of the armed
forces, and the rental value of owner-occupied hous-
ing. The goal is to attach a value to these activities
using the same prices for which equivalent goods are
sold. Thus, the retail prices of food and clothing are
used to value military subsistence, the average rent
per square meter of state housing is used for estimat-
ing the rental value of owner-occupied housing, and
the average realized selling price of each type of
agricultural product is used to value agricultural
output consumed in kind. Valuation of owner-occu-
pied housing presents a special problem in that state-
owned housing is heavily subsidized, and the proce-
dure adopted here implicitly provides a similar
subsidy for private housing. The quality of state
housing may be superior to that of private housing,
but the evidence is insufficient to make an
adjustment.
" An estimate of private production of liquor in the Soviet Union is
in Vladimir G. Treml, "Production and Consumption of Alcoholic
Beverages in the USSR: A Statistical Study," Journal of Studies
on Alcohol 36, March 1975, pp. 285-320.
" The effects of illegal activities on GNP are discussed in Edward
F. Denison, "Effects of Selected Changes in the Institutional and
Human Environment Upon Output Per Unit of Input," Survey of
Current Business 58, January 1978, pp. 37-42.
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Summary of Differences in the
Soviet and US GNP Accounts
As discussed above, the structural characteristics of
the Soviet economy have made it necessary to con-
struct a set of GNP accounts that differ somewhat
from the US accounts. In addition, the lack of data
forces some simplification and consolidation of the
Soviet accounts as compared with the US accounts.
This section summarizes the structure of our Soviet
GNP accounts and the differences between the Soviet
and US accounts.
Three interrelated accounts comprise our Soviet GNP
accounting system. The first is the household account.
It enumerates the various incomes and outlays, in-
cluding imputed, of private households. The house-
hold sector is defined to include all activity by
households. That is, investment and current produc-
tion activity are included as well as consumption and
transfer payments.
The second account shows the incomes and outlays of
the public sector. Because of lack of data, we are
unable to differentiate between government final ex-
penditures and production activities. As a result,
public-sector outlays include government administra-
tive expenditures as well as investment bS, khozras-
chet enterprises. Similarly, public-sector incomes in-
clude tax payments to the budget as well as retained
earnings of khozraschet enterprises and kolkhozy.
The third account is the consolidated GNP account. It
includes the incomes and expenditures resulting from
current production activity. The various transfer pay-
ments between the household and public sectors are
excluded since they do not represent expenditures for
goods and services. All of the incomes and outlays are
derived from the relevant portions of the household
and public-sector accounts.
The household and public-sector income and outlay
accounts for 1970 are presented in appendix D. The
GNP account is discussed in more detail below.
The US GNP accounts consist of five accounts. The
first account shows personal incomes and outlays. It
resembles the Soviet household income and outlay
33
account presented above. The main differences be-
tween the accounts are the explicit inclusion of agri-
cultural income in kind and private investment in the
Soviet account. Agricultural income in kind is includ-
ed in the US account, but its importance is small and
it does not appear as a separate item. Private invest-
ment in the Soviet Union consists of private housing
construction and the net addition of livestock to
private herds. In the US accounts, these investment
activities are considered part of the business sector
and are included in gross private business investment.
The second US account shows government incomes
and outlays. Because of the wide scope of Soviet
Government activity and the lack of data to make
adjustments, the Soviet GNP accounts merge the
equivalent of the business sector with the government
sector into an aggregate public sector. In particular, it
is not possible to quantify separately government-
financed investment and enterprise-financed
investment.
The third US account is foreign trade. Foreign trade
in the Soviet Union is a state monopoly and cannot be
separated from the public sector for accounting pur-
poses. Foreign trade in the Soviet accounts is, there-
fore, shown as a net item in public-sector outlays.
The fourth US account shows savings and investment.
This account does not exist in the Soviet accounts
because of the problem of separating enterprise in-
vestment from government investment. The fifth US
account shows consolidated GNP as the sum of the
relevant parts of the other four accounts.
Valuation
As is widely recognized, Soviet prices differ markedly
in concept from Western scarcity prices. Accurate
measurement of the growth of production potential
requires the use of prices that come as close as
possible to the theoretical standard�that is, the
prices of any two products should be proportional to
the marginal rate of transformation between the two
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products. The purpose of Bergson's adjusted factor-
cost standard (AFCS) is to adjust Soviet prices so that
they more closely approximate the theoretical stand-
ard. This section first examines the basic nature of
Soviet prices and then describes Bergson's AFCS, its
justification, and its limitations.
Soviet Established Prices
In most countries, GNP is computed only in terms of
market prices. The related prices in the Soviet Union
are the so-called established prices.' Most prices in
the Soviet Union are established by administrative
decision rather than by market forces. They are
intended to cover material costs, wages, depreciation
allowances, social security allowances, other direct
costs, and a profit surcharge�in other words, average
cost plus a profit markup. While the profit surcharges
are intended to average about 15 percent of the stock
of fixed and working capital, in practice they are
computed as a percentage of input costs. The costs
computed are those that would be incurred by an
average enterprise producing according to required
standards and following normal procedures, rather
than the actual production costs of any one enterprise.
Thus some enterprises should make above-average
profits because of better-than-average production con-
ditions, while other enterprises will make less-than-
average profits or even losses. This method of price
formation, however, does not apply to all prices.
Agricultural prices include a bewildering array of
procurement, above-plan procurement, direct deliv-
ery, zonal, and collective-farm-market prices. The
construction industry does not have a standard prod-
uct; hence, its prices are formed on a cost plus basis
for each construction project.
The profits included in Soviet prices are intended to
cover the normal uses to which an enterprise is
allowed to put its profits while leaving enough for the
needs of the state budget. Since the economic reforms
in the late 1960s, the enterprises have been allowed to
form increased material incentive and other funds
from profits and have had to pay a charge to the state
for the use of enterprise capital stock. The allowance
for profits has, therefore, been increased.
The term "prevailing prices" is also used in Western literature.
See Bergson, 1961.
Established prices in the USSR have several aspects
that make them unsuitable as weights in computing
the real growth of the Soviet economy. These aspects
include large turnover taxes (levied primarily on
consumer goods), rapidly growing subsidies on hous-
ing and industrial purchases of agricultural goods,
widely varying profit rates when computed as a return
to capital, differential prices for the same good, and
inflated prices of new products. Each of these prob-
lems will be discussed briefly.
Finding a Basis for Valuing Soviet GNP
The important uses of national income statistics in-
clude the analysis of resource allocation and the
measurement of the growth of economic production
capability. A considerable amount of Western litera-
ture centers on measurement of national income for
these purposes and on what can or cannot be implied
from the results.' In practice, Western countries
construct GNP accounts using existing market prices
as if they met the theoretical requirements for use in
measuring resource allocation or economic growth.
Although the requirements are never perfectly met,
market prices of most Western industrialized coun-
tries fit the theoretical model reasonably well, so that
the distortions probably are small.
The Soviet Union's centrally established and fre-
quently arbitrary prices diverge greatly from the
theoretical model. The principal requirements of this
model are that the relative prices of two goods should
be equal to their relative marginal costs and that the
rate of return to each factor of production should be
equal in all of its uses. Soviet procedures for price
formation violate these requirements. A price based
on the average direct cost of all enterprises producing
a product does not allow for the differential cost of the
capital resources being used, for the different utility
Among the classic articles are: J. R. Hicks, "The Valuation of '
Social Income,- Economica 7, May 1940, pp. 105-124; Simon
Kuznets, "On the Valuation of Social Income," Economica 15,
February-May 1948, pp. 1-16, 116-131; J. R. Hicks, "On the
Valuation of Social Income," Economica 15, August 1948, pp. 163-
172; P. A. Samuelson, "Evaluation of Real National Income,"
Oxford Economic Papers 2, January 1950, pp. 1-29; and Richard
H. Moorsteen, "On Measuring Productive Potential and Relative
Efficiency," Quarterly Journal of Economics 75, February 1961,
pp. 451-467.
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that two products of equal cost may have, or for the
relative scarcity of the inputs used to produce the
product. Since demand has little or no effect on
prices, some goods will be in abundant supply while
others are rationed.
Distortions Caused by Turnover Taxes and Subsidies
The turnover tax is one of the major sources of
government income in the Soviet Union. It is effec-
tively an excise tax levied selectively on various
products, but mostly on consumer goods. It can be
characterized as a tax on consumers' income, intended
to soak up excess purchasing power and to restrain
consumer demand. The often high incidence of the tax
and its selective application are important reasons
why Soviet prices do not fit the Western model which
requires that price equal marginal cost. Table 5 shows
selected data from the 1972 Soviet input-output table
on the level and variability of the turnover tax.
Most of the taxes are levied on consumer goods, as
indicated by the large amounts collected in the light
and food industry sectors. The fuel taxes are an
exception: most are collected on interindustrial sales
and in some cases are extremely high. In the case of
agriculture, the farms pay heavy taxes on fuel pur-
chases while receiving a subsidy on electricity
purchases.
The aggregate data in table 5 not only indicate a high
variance in tax incidence, but also hide other differ-
ences. For example, the entire turnover tax revenue
shown for machinery products arises from taxations of
consumer goods, mainly automobiles (the tax accounts
for 53 percent of consumption outlays for automobiles
in purchasers' prices) and radioelectronics (15 per-
cent). Within the food industry, no taxes are paid on
the output of the fish, meat, dairy products, flour, and
fruit and vegetable sectors. On the other hand, the tax
amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the sugar
industry and 56 percent of the gross output of the
"other foods" branch, which manufactures alcoholic
beverages.
Clearly, wide variations in indirect tax rates weaken
the usefulness of prices as a measure of production
potential. The suggestion has been made that Soviet
turnover taxes represent a surrogate factor charge to
compensate for the other problems in Soviet prices.
35
Table 5
Turnover Taxes as a Share of
Gross Output in Industry, 1972
Turnover
Taxes
as a Share of
Gross Output
(percent)
Sector
Turnover
Taxes
(billion
rubles)
Gross
Output
(billion
rubles)
Metals
0.1
44.2
0.2
Fuel
5.9
39.2
15.1
Electric power
0.6
14.0
4.1
Machinery
4.3
117.1
3.7
Chemicals
1.1
29.6
3.7
Wood, pulp, and paper
0.2
25.5
0.9
Construction materials
0.4
25.0
1.4
Light industry
15.7
87.5
18.0
Food industry
26.2
126.2
20.8
Other industry
1.0
13.4
7.6
Source: Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinsky, and Vladimir G.
Treml, Input-Output Structure of the Soviet Economy: 1972,
Foreign Economic Report 18, US Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census, Foreign Demographic Analysis Division,
Washington, D.C.; forthcoming.
This issue has been discussed in detail by Becker and
Bergson, both of whom rejected the argument."
Subsidies also force a divergence between prices and
marginal costs. In the 1967 price reform, the prices of
natural resources such as coal, oil, gas, and ferrous
and nonferrous ores were raised sharply in order to
eliminate subsidies or to improve profit levels. Rising
extraction costs since then have made once profitable
branches unprofitable and led to renewed subsidies
and the need to raise prices once again. In the coal
industry, for example, profits have declined from 844
million rubles in 1970 to a loss of 626 million rubles in
1978."
The most expensive subsidies are now paid on agricul-
tural products. The Soviet Government has several
times raised procurement prices for various agricul-
tural products, notably meat and dairy products, in
42 Becker, 1969, pp. 47-49; and Bergson, 1961, pp. 105-108.
" Narkhoz 1978, p. 517.
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Table 6
Billion Rubles Table 7
Subsidies on Agricultural Products Sold
to the Light and Food Industries
Year
Light Industry
Food Industry
1966
0.3
3:3
1967
0.3
5.0
1968
0.3
7.3
1969
0.3
8.2
1970
1.7
13.0
1971
1.8
14.1
1972
2.0
15.2
1973
0.6
15.8
1974
0.2
17.3
1975
0.5
19.0
Source: Vladimir G. Treml, Agricultural Subsidies in the Soviet
Union, US Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 1978, p. 9.
order to stimulate production and improve the quality
of the Soviet diet. At the same time, the government
has held retail prices constant. Therefore, it has had
to subsidize the light and food industries increasingly
to cover their higher costs.
The agricultural subsidy has grown rapidly and now
amounts to more than 20 billion rubles per year.
Selected data relating to the light and food industries
make it clear that the food industry receives most of
the subsidy (table 6). The price distortions resulting
from the combined effects of turnover taxes and
subsidies are most striking at a disaggregated level.
Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross
outputs of the sugar and other food branches in 1972,
while subsidies represented a negative 48 and 22
percent of the gross outputs of the meat and dairy
sectors. Thus the subsidies tend to reinforce rather
than offset price distortions caused by turnover taxes.
Variations in Profit Rates
Profits of a khozraschet enterprise-as noted earli-
er-are not intended to serve the same purpose as
profits in a Western business. Instead, they are a
mechanism to obtain sufficient funds for centralized
public expenditures, to provide material incentives to
Profits as a Percent of Productive
Fixed and Working Capital in 1972
Industry
19.3
Electric power
10.2
Oil extraction
26.0
Oil refining
21.8
Gas
46.0
Goal
6.3
Ferrous metals
16.0
Chemicals
19.8
Machinery
20.2
Wood, pulp, and paper
17.7
Construction materials
11.8
Light industry
27.0
Food industry
24.5
Sugar
5.5
Meat
59.3
Transportation
12.7
River transport
12.2
Automobile transport
31.5
Communications
13.9
Source: Narkhoz 1975, pp. 728-29.
enterprise management, to measure performance of
enterprise management, and to exercise fiscal and
administrative control.
After the management reforms of 1965, the role of
profits increased significantly. Reflecting this, total
profits increased rapidly, from 37 billion rubles in
1965 to 87 billion rubles in 1970. Profits, however, are
distributed quite unevenly among sectors, and the
profit rate on fixed and working capital varies enor-
mously (table 7). For this reason, profits do not appear
to be a reliable indicator of the contribution of capital
to production, a precondition for the use of established
prices as a measure of production potential.
Moreover, much of the service sector does not earn
profits because the enterprises are financed from the
state budget. The lack of any charge for the use of
capital stock in the service sphere undervalues the
resources used to produce those services.
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Differential Prices and New-Product Pricing
Not only do relative prices of Soviet goods and
services not correspond to relative costs of resources
used in their production, but the price of a product
often varies according to purchaser. The price dis-
crimination is sometimes accomplished by selective
application of taxes and subsidies, and sometimes by
charging different prices. The full extent of this price
discrimination is not known, but it is especially preva-
lent in the fuel sector. The indirect consequence is a
divergence in the relative prices of output from the
value of resources used.
Once a product is in serial production in the USSR,
its price rarely changes. This is due partly to bureau-
cratic inertia and partly to the convenience of price
stability for planning and administration. To increase
profits, many enterprises and ministries introduce new
products that are new in name only. Creating a new
product permits establishment of a new, higher price
for essentially the same good and results in relative
prices that do not reflect relative resource use and
hence do not measure accurately the production po-
tential of alternative economic activities. As with
differential prices, we have insufficient information to
account for this price distortion. Whenever possible,
therefore, we use physical output data to measure
changes in the level of output rather than deflated
value data. While avoiding the new-product price
problem, this method tends to understate quality
change."
The Adjusted Factor-Cost Standard
Because of the deficiencies of Soviet prices, Bergson
concluded that established prices did not conform
sufficiently well with the requirements of the theory
of optimal resource allocation to permit their use in
measuring the change in Soviet production potential
over time or to study the resource allocation pattern
adopted by the Soviet Union. As an alternative, he
proposed his adjusted factor-cost standard.
For GNP to measure production potential, some
strong assumptions are required: chiefly perfect com-
petition, the absence of price distortions in factor
" This issue is discussed in more detail in Comparing Planned and
Actual Growth of Industrial Ouput in Centrally Planned Econo-
mies, Central Intelligence Agency, National Foreign Assessment
Center, Washington, D. C., 1980.
37
markets, and the full use of all productive factors. If
these conditions are met, then the economy will
operate on its production-possibility frontier, where
the production of any product cannot be increased
unless the production of some other product is de-
creased and where the relative prices of the two
products indicates the trade-off.
Bergson hypothesized that the Soviet economy does
not operate on its production-possibility frontier, but
rather on a feasibility locus which is well short of the
frontier. This shortfall of production may result from
bureaucratic inefficiency or from the misallocation of
resources. Bergson further conjectured that the feasi-
bility locus is broadly parallel to the production-
possibility frontier.
Working from this hypothesis, Bergson derived a set
of price rules that would be sufficient to measure the
growth of production potential as represented by the
feasibility locus. These rules form his AFCS. Accord-
ing to Bergson, if the feasibility locus were to ap-
proach the production-possibility frontier, then the
AFCS would also approach the efficiency standard
for valuing national income. Broadly speaking, the
AFCS ensures that prices are equal to average cost
and that factor prices are equal between markets and
proportional to factor productivities.
In particular, the AFCS requires that the following
statements be true:
� All product prices must resolve into charges for
primary inputs; that is, for land, labor, and capital.
� The differences in wages among sectors represent
differences in labor productivity and workers'
disutility.
� Rent is charged for the use of superior land and
other natural resources.
� The charge for capital consists of a depreciation
allowance and an interest payment based on a rate
of interest corresponding to the average level of
capital productivity."
� Commodity prices are uniform within a given mar-
ket area.
" There is a difference of opinion over whether capital stock should
be valued gross or net of depreciation. The capital stock data used
in this study are gross of depreciation.
93-892 - 8? _
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It should be clear that the AFCS is an imperfect
measure of production potential and that our empiri-
cal application of it is even more imperfect. The prices
that we implicitly construct using the AFCS are not
the equilibrium prices of Western national income
theory, and the data do not exist to implement the
AFCS with great precision. Nevertheless, the AFCS
is to be preferred to Soviet established prices because
it removes major price distortions and provides a
better measure of changes in production potential and
resource allocation than do Soviet prices.
Our application of the AFCS builds on the work by
Bergson and Becker. Starting with established prices,
they deleted turnover taxes and added subsidies to
arrive at GNP by sector of origin at factor cost. The
effect of these price changes was then estimated on
the various components of GNP by end use. The same
adjustments also are done here. The availability of
reconstructed Soviet input-output tables, however,
permits some improvement in the allocation of the
adjustments among end-use sectors. In addition, we
replace profits with a capital charge which is calculat-
ed as a percentage of each sector's stock of fixed and
working capital, and extend our earlier use of the
input-output tables by integrating the service sectors
into the adjustment process.
Soviet GNP in 1970 in Established
Prices and at Factor Cost
This section presents GNP accounts for the Soviet
Union in 1970 in established prices and then converts
the accounts to factor-cost prices, step by step:
� The 1970 accounts in established 'prices are elabo-
rated into an input-output framework.
� A 1970 input-output table in producers' prices is
estimated.
� A factor-cost repricing algorithm is developed and
applied to the 1970 input-output table.
The Revised 1970 Soviet GNP Accounts
CIA's original estimates of the 1970 GNP accounts
were published in 1975." The revisions in those
accounts to take account of new information are
described in appendix D, and the revised accounts are
" CIA, GNP 1970.
summarized in tables 8 and 9. These accounts are
based on an elaboration and recombination of the
income and outlay flows described above. The income
account (table 8) combines portions of the left-hand
column in each of the individual accounts. Thus, state
wages and salaries are the sum of items 1.2 and 2.2.
Similarly, the expenditure account (table 9) shows
data from the right-hand side of each set of accounts.
In order to estimate the relationship between estab-
lished prices and factor-cost prices, it is necessary to
identify the effect of a price change in one sector on
the price level of all sectors. This is necessary because
a change in value added, such as replacing profits by a
capital charge, represents a price change. The device
used for this purpose is an input-output (I-0) table. It
shows the structure of each sector's purchases from
and sales to each sector, which allows the direct and
indirect effects of a price change to be traced. In order
to use an I-0 table, the data in tables 8 and 9 need to
be disaggregated according to I-0 definitions. The
value-added quadrant of an I-0 table identifies the
types of income shown in table 8 with the sector in
which it is produced (columns of the I-0 table).
Similarly GNP by end use (table 9) represents the
final expenditures on final goods and services. The
final-demand quadrant of the I-0 table identifies
these expenditures with the sectors from which they
are purchased (rows of the I-0 table). Both of these
disaggregations are shown in appendix E.
Construction of the 1970 Input-Output Table and
Conversion of the 1970 Accounts to Factor Cost
The construction of the 1970 input-output table pro-
ceeds in two steps. First, the established-price data
are converted to producers' prices. Then the converted
data are used with an I-0 updating algorithm to
estimate a 1970 I-0 table in producers' prices based
on the structure of the Soviet 1972 I-0 table in
producers' prices. Producers' prices are equal to estab-
lished prices less turnover taxes, plus subsidies, less
trade and transportation expenses on delivered prod-
ucts.' Producers' prices are used to estimate the 1970
47 For a detailed discussion of producers' prices, see Vladimir G.
Treml et at., Conversion of Soviet Input-Output Tables to Produc-
ers' Prices: The 1966 Reconstructed Table, US Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Foreign Economic Re-
port No. I, Washington, D.C., 1973.
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Table 8 Billion Rubles
Gross National Product of the Soviet Union
in Established Prices, by Type of Income, 1970
Table 9
Gross National Product of the Soviet Union
in Established Prices, by End Use, 1970
Billion Rubles
Wage bill
135.412
Consumption
211.083
State wages and salaries
132.032
Goods
166.478
Military pay and allowances
3.380
Food
107.926
Other and imputed income
62.251
Soft goods
44.294
Net income of households from agriculture
41.709
Durables
14.258
Military subsistence
3.200
Services
44.605
Other money income currently earned and
10.598
Housing
3.429
statistical discrepancy
Utilities
3.478
Imputed net rent
1.080
Transportation
5.400
Imputed value of owner-supplied
construction services
0.579
Communications
1.200
Repair and personal care
5.497
Charges to economic enterprises for special funds
5.085
Recreation
2.608
Education
0.400
14.380
Education
Research
2.578
Health
8.613
Social-cultural measures and sports activities
0.162
Investment
109.220
Militarized guards
0.880
New fixed investment
90.220
Support for administration of higher echelons
1.065
Machinery and equipment
26.053
Social insurance
9.436
Construction and other capital outlays
59.800
Profits
89.154
Net additions to livestock
4.367
State enterprises
79.591
Capital repair
19.000
Retained profits of state enterprises
26.481
Other public-sector expenditures
62.956
Deductions from profits of state enterprises
53.110
Government administrative services
9.030
Collective farms
7.852
General agricultural programs
1.004
Retained income of collective farms
7.186
Forestry
0.636
Tax on income of collective farms
0.666
State administration and the administrative
3.821
Consumer cooperatives
1.283
organs of social organizations
Retained profits of consumer cooperatives
0.821
Municipal and related services
3.569
Tax on income of consumer cooperatives
0.462
Culture
1.180
Other organizations
0.428
Municipal services
0.628
Retained profits of other organizations
0.321
Civilian police
1.761
Tax on income of other organizations
0.107
Research and development
10.343
Depreciation
31.827
Outlays n.e.c.
28.429
Turnover and other indirect taxes
77.732
Net exports
0.961
Turnover taxes
53.346
Defense n.e.c., unidentified outlays, and
27.468
Miscellaneous charges
24.386
statistical discrepancy
Allowances for subsidized losses n.e.c.
-22.553
Inventories
15.154
Gross national product
383.259
Gross national product
383.259
Source: Appendix D.
Source: Appendix D.
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1-0 table because relative producers' prices are
thought to be more stable over time than relative
purchasers' prices.
Since Soviet I-0 tables show only the productive
sectors," while the transportation and communica-
tions sectors furnished both productive (freight trans-
portation) and nonproductive (passenger transporta-
tion) services, these GNP sectors must be
disaggregated. In addition, to obtain a value-added
quadrant in producers' prices, we must compute: (1)
the implicit subsidies received and turnover taxes paid
by each productive sector on its material purchases,
(2) the nonproductive services purchased by each
sector, and (3) the material purchases of the service
sectors. These estimates are explained in more detail
in appendix E.
The 1970 I-0 table is estimated with the help of a
least squares minimization algorithm. It estimates a
1970 1-0 table in producers' prices that is as much
like the actual 1972 table as possible, with the
constraint that each row and column must sum to a
predetermined amount. The row and column sums are
determined as each sector's gross output less, respec-
tively, its value added or final demand. See appendix
E for further discussion of the algorithm and its
rationale.
Many of the steps taken to compute the 1970 I-0
table in producers' prices are part of the conversion to
factor-cost prices, notably the elimination of turnover
taxes and subsidies on final goods and services. The
remaining steps eliminate the rest of turnover taxes
and subsidies and replace profits with a uniform
capital charge. In our earlier publication on the 1970
GNP accounts, the uniform capital charge was set at
12 percent of the sum of fixed and working capital.
The present report follows the work of Brown, Hall,
" The Soviet Union divides its economy into productive and
nonproductive sectors. Productive sectors are those which produce
material goods (industry, construction, and agriculture) and those
which are needed to deliver material goods to their final user
(freight transportation, business communications, and wholesale
and retail trade).
and Licari in applying 1-0 repricing algorithms,
developed originally for East European 1-0 tables, to
determine the interest rate."
The repricing procedure or algorithm relies on a basic
property of an 1-0 table: that the sum of the entries in
a particular column must equal the sum of the entries
in the corresponding row. That is, a sector's sales must
equal its total expenses, including profits. This proper-
ty, plus the distribution of each sector's sales de-
scribed by an I-0 table, provides the ability to relate
an increase in the price of the output of one sector to
increases in the costs of all sectors. Thus, equalizing
the rate of return on each sector's fixed and working
capital implies a given set of changes in relative
prices, and the 1-0 table can be used to compute
directly the required array of price changes.
A Comparison of Established and Factor-Cost Prices
Tables 10 and 11 compare the percentage distribution
of GNP by end use and by sector of origin, in
established prices and in factor-cost prices. As expect-
ed, the largest difference in the end-use distribution
(table 10) is the increase in the share attributed to
services, especially housing, when factor-cost prices
are used. Expenditures on consumer services, which
were 11.6 percent of GNP in established prices, are
19.5 percent of GNP in factor-cost prices. The hous-
ing share increases from 0.9 to 7.0 percent of GNP.
The shares of most other services also rise.
The major reductions in GNP shares are in consumer
goods, especially beverages, soft goods, and durables.
These changes stem mainly from the elimination of
turnover taxes. As a whole, however, the share of
consumption is about the same in established prices
(55.1 percent) as in factor-cost prices (54.2 percent).
The share of investment is virtually unchanged by the
use of factor-cost prices. Total investment is 28.5
percent of GNP in established prices and 28.2 percent
in factor-cost prices, with the structure almost the
same.
" Alan A. Brown, Owen P. Hall, and Joseph A. Licari, Price
Adjustment Models for Socialist Economies: Theory and Empiri-
cal Technique, International Development Research Center, Bloo-
mington, Ind., 1973.
40
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Table 10
1970 Soviet Gross National Product
by End Use
Percent Table 11
Established
Prices
Factor-Cost
Prices
Consumption
55.1
54.2
Consumer goods
43.4
34.7
Food
28.2
25.5
Animal products
11.0
14.3
Processed foods
3.6
2.7
Basic foods
6.0
6.1
Beverages
7.5
2.4
Soft Goods
11.6
6.8
Durables
3.7
2.5
Consumer services
11.6
19.5
Housing
0.9
7.0
Utilities
0.9
1.0
Transportation
1.4
1.7
Communications
0.3
0.5
Repair and personal care
1.4
1.2
Recreation
0.7
1.0
Education
3.8
4.5
Health
2.2
2.6
Investment
28.5
28.2
New fixed investment
23.5
23.4
Machinery and equipment
6.8
6.7
Construction and other capital
outlays
15.6
15.6
Net additions to livestock
1.1
1.2
Capital repair
5.0
4.8
Other public-sector expenditures
16.4
17.6
Government administrative services
2.4
2.8
Research and development
2.7
3.1
Outlays n.e.c.
11.4
11.6
Source: See text.
As regards changes in the distribution of GNP by
sector of origin (table 11), the two sectors showing the
largest increases in percentage shares of GNP as a
result of repricing are trade (retail, wholesale, and
agricultural procurement) and housing. The light and
food industry sectors experienced the greatest decline
in GNP shares, primarily because most of the turn-
over taxes are collected in those sectors.
41
1970 Soviet Gross National Product
by Sector of Origin
Percent
Established
Prices
Factor-Cost
Prices
Industry
45.8
32.0
Ferrous metals
1.9
2.3
Nonferrous metals
1.2
1.3
Fuel
3.9
3.1
2.2
10.1
2.0
Electric power
1.5
Machinery
11.9
Chemicals
2.6
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.9
2.4
Construction materials
2.0
2.1
Light industry
8.7
2.5
3.0
0.9
Food industry
7.4
Other industry
1.7
Construction
7.4
7.3
Agriculture
20.5
21.1
Transportation
7.4
8.7
Communications
0.7
0.9
Trade
4.8
7.3
20.5
Services
11.4
Housing
0.9
7.2
Utilities
0.5
0.6
Repair and personal care
1.1
1.2
Recreation
0.5
0.8
Education
3.0
3.8
Health
1.6
2.0
Science
1.6
2.0
Credit and insurance
0.3
0.4
2.5
0.3
0.1
1.2
0.4
0.2
Government administrative services
1.9
0.2
General agricultural programs
Forestry
0.1
State administration and the ad-
ministrative organs of social
organizations
0.8
0.3
Culture
Municipal services
0.1
Civilian police
0.4
0.4
Military personnel
1.8
1.9
Other branches
0.3
0.3
Source: See text.
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Problems in Estimating Volume Indexes
of Economic Activity in the USSR
The real growth of Soviet GNP is computed by
multiplying each of the 1970 sector-of-origin and end-
use weights by an appropriate constant-price activity
index. While use of this method is not unusual in
OECD countries, it is more common to deflate cur-
rent-price data. The lack of detailed Soviet price
indexes and our distrust of those that do exist pre-
cludes that approach here.
The problems of estimating constant-price indexes
have generated a voluminous amount of literature."
In connection with the presentation of our Soviet
GNP indexes it is appropriate to summarize some of
the general problems encountered in working with
index numbers.
Effect of the Base Year on the Growth Rate
In the computation of GNP, the aggregation of
physical quantities expressed in different units re-
quires the use of prices as weights. Thus the growth of
GNP between any two years in constant prices is the
ratio of two summations of prices times quantities. If
relative prices or quantities of the various goods and
services produced in the two years are the same in
each year, then it does not matter whether the prices
of the first or second year are used for aggregation. In
general, however, technological progress; changing
endowments of land, labor, and capital; and other
factors will cause changes in relative prices. In prac-
tice, then, the measured GNP growth rate will vary,
depending on whether prices of the first or second
year are used.
In computing a series of growth rates for a multiyear
period, it is possible to use the prices of one year for
" Some of the general sources are: Lawrence Grose, Real Output
Measurement in the United States National Income and Product
Accounts, US Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 1967;
T. P. Hill, The Measurement of Real Product, The Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, 1971; R. G. D.
Allen, Index Numbers in Theory and Practice, Aldine Publishing
Co., Chicago, 1975; United Nations, Guidelines on Principles of a
System of Price and Quantity Statistics, New York, 1977; Richard
Stone, Quantity and Price Indexes in National Accounts, Organi-
zation for European Economic Cooperation, Paris, 1956; Franklin
M. Fisher and Karl Shell, The Economic Theory of Price Indices,
Academic Press, New York, 1972; and Dan Usher, The Measure-
ment of Economic Growth, ch. 4, Columbia University Press, New
York, 1980.
all calculations or to use a moving price base. With a
moving price base, the weights used to combine the
constant-price volume indexes are different for each
calculation. In this report, 1970 prices are used for all
growth rate calculations. The primary reason for this
approach is that the construction of current-year
weighted (Paasche) indexes requires current-price
GNP accounts for each year, information which is not
currently available. In addition, Western practice is to
use the base-year weighted (Laspeyres)
For analysis of current trends, the base year should be
reasonably close to the current year so that the base-
year relative prices are not greatly different from
those of the current year. For the Soviet Union, 1970
is sufficiently recent to qualify as Soviet prices have
not changed much since then. The large energy price
changes of 1973-74 make it more important to use a
price base of 1975 or later for a Western economy."
Aggregation of Quantity Indexes Instead of Deflated
Value Indexes
There are two basic methods of computing a constant-
price activity index of the output of a collection of
goods or services. Assuming that observations are
available on the quantities produced and the prices of
each good or service, then the current-price output
can be deflated by a price index, or a weighted
quantity index can be computed. With full informa-
tion, the result will be the same. For the year 0, let
Q(0,1), , Q(0,i), , Q(0,N) be the physical
quantities of the N goods produced in year 0 and
p(0,1), , p(0,i), , p(O,N) the corresponding
prices. Then the growth of output from year 0 to year
t, expressed in current prices, is:
I Q(t,i)p(t,i)
i= 1
Q(0,0p(0,i)
i= 1
" Bergson, 1961, pp. 25-41, discusses the various economic interpre-
tations of the two indexes. Also, see Becker, 1969, pp. 69-72, and
the sources listed in footnote 50.
" The benchmark of the US accounts in 1981 retained 1972 as the
base year, implying that the data for using a more recent base year
are not available or that the US national income accountants do not
think the change in relative prices is a severe problem. Many
OECD countries, however, have shifted to a 1975 base year.
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If this expression is deflated by a Paasche (current-
year weighted) price index, then the desired Laspeyres
output index is obtained:
Q(t,i)p(t,i)
i= 1
; Q(0,i)p(0,i) E Q(t,i)p(0,i)
= 1 i= 1
� Q(t,i)p(t,i)
i= I
E Q(t,i)p(0,i)
i= 1
E Q(0,i)p(0,i)
i= 1
Rarely is information available on production and
prices for all goods and services in both the base and
the given year. If only a sample of observations is
available, then the two sides of the previous equation
may not be the same. For example, suppose there are
N products, but price and quantity data are available
only for n (less than N) products. The estimated
growth of output from year 0 to year t using the
deflated current-price index would be:
E Q(t,i)p(0,i) E Q(t,i)p(t,i) E Q(t,i)p(0,i)
i= I = i= I i= I
X
� Q(0,i)p(0,i) E Q(0,i)p(0,i) E Q(t,i)p(t,i)
1=1 i= 1 i= I
and the estimate using the quantity index would be:
� Q(t,i)p(0,i) E Q(t,i)p(0,i)
i= 1 = i=1
� Q(0,i)p(0,i)
1=1
E Q(0,i)p(0,i)
i= 1
If n=N, then the two equations are identical. If n is
less than N, the reliability of the deflated current-
price index depends on the accuracy of the price index
43
computed from the sample data, and the reliability of
the quantity index depends on the representativeness
of the quantity sample. Hill argues that the price
index is likely to be more accurate, especially when
large numbers of new products are being introduced
arid old products withdrawn." Unfortunately, Soviet
price data are so scarce and unreliable that the
deflation method is not practical either for GNP as a
whole or for most individual sector indexes. The
quantity index method is relied upon almost
exclusively.
Specific Index Number Problems
Several specific index number problems are also
important in the measurement of Soviet GNP. They
arise in the treatment of regional production, seasonal
production, price discrimination, quality changes, and
unique products.
Regional Production. The resources required to pro-
duce a given product may be quite different depend-
ing on where a product is made. For example, a school
building of exactly the same dimensions may cost
much more to construct in Siberia than in the
Ukraine because of greater transportation expenses,
more stringent structural requirements, a larger heat-
ing unit, and more difficult construction conditions.
To the extent that the added cost reflects real differ-
ences in the use of resources, a shift in production to a
more expensive region represents an increase in pro-
duction rather than a price increase. Theoretically, we
should construct weighted regional production index-
es, but the scarcity of data does not permit doing so.
The influence of regional production on the growth of
GNP is probably most important in the construction,
agriculture, and fuel sectors.
Seasonal Production. Changes in seasonal production
patterns present a similar problem. A vegetable grown
near Moscow in a hothouse during the winter requires
more resources than the same vegetable grown out-
doors during the summer. Theoretically, the two
vegetables should be treated as different products,
and a production or price index containing them
" Hill, Measurement, p. 25.
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should be weighted appropriately. The Soviet Union
attempts to capture this effect in the construction
sector by allowing price supplements for work done
during the winter. No adjustments are made in this
study.
Price Discrimination, Quality Changes, and Unique
Products. According to one of the conditions of the
AFCS, product prices must be uniform within a
market area. This condition is violated frequently in
the Soviet Union, especially in energy pricing. Some
sectors pay preferential prices, receive higher quality
products for the same price, or enjoy special delivery
privileges. To the extent that differential prices are
included in the input-output data, the factor-cost
prices are inaccurate. Changes in the degree of dis-
crimination will also affect the indexes.
The problem of quality change is pervasive in index
computations. The basic question is how much of the
change in the price of a product actually reflects a
change in the quantity of the services provided by the
product. The answer is not always clear. The problem
is particularly severe in the Soviet case, because we
rarely can observe products over time on a scale
sufficient to assess quality changes and because a
common method of raising prices in the Soviet Union
is to make a cosmetic change in the product and call it
a new product. The quality problem mainly affects
our index of industrial production, which frequently
relies on physical output data covering fairly broad
product categories. The lack of adjustments for quali-
ty changes probably understates real quantity
changes."
Many investment goods are produced as unique prod-
ucts or in very small batches. Most construction
projects and as much as one-third of producer dura-
bles constitute unique products. A variety of tech-
niques have been devised to measure the real cost of
unique products: summing input costs; using hedonic
indexes; using a related, standard product as an
analog; and computing the cost as a sum of standard
components. The construction index used here, for
example, is a material-input index rather than an
output index. Although we suspect that our index of
See Comparing Planned and Actual Growth, Central Intelligence
Agency, Washington, D.C., for a discussion of this problem.
investment in producer durables (based on official
values in so-called constant estimate prices) overstates
growth, we lack the data to use an alternative
approach.
Problems of Measuring the Real Growth of Value
Added
The discussion to this point has centered on the
problems of any constant-price activity index. The
construction of indexes of value added in economic
sectors poses additional problems. Value added cannot
be measured directly in constant prices because
changes in depreciation, profits, and social insurance
do not lend themselves to separation into price and
quantity changes. Therefore, value added is computed
as a residual�the difference between gross output
and current material inputs. This procedure makes
value added especially subject to measurement error.
Specialists generally agree that the preferred ap-
proach to measure real changes in value added is the
so-called double deflation method. If Q(j,t) is the gross
output of sector j in year t, q(i,j,t) is the current input
of type i used by sector j in year t, n is the number of
sectors, and p(j,t) is the price of the good or service
produced by sector j in year t, then value added in
sector j in year t is:
p(j,t)Q(j,t) � p(i,t)q(i,j,t).
i= I
The value added in base-year prices (year 0) is then
computed as the difference between the deflated
values of both terms, or:
V(j,t) = p(j,0)Q(j,t) � p(i3O)q(i,j,t).
i = 1
The virtue of this approach is that it preserves
consistency between the end-use and sector-of-origin
accounts. If the sales of all sectors are properly
deflated, then the sum of deliveries to end-use compo-
nents of GNP in base-year prices will equal the sum
of deflated value added by sectors of origin.
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Several problems preclude widespread use �double
deflation:
� It requires a great deal of data to implement. A full
I-0 table is needed for a complete accounting of a
sector's inputs. A surrogate method relying on a
price index of a sample of a sector's inputs can be
used, but even this requires much data and will not
support timely estimates.
� Double deflation assumes that the inputs actually
used in year t by sector j would have been used even
with a different set of relative prices, an unlikely
occurrence. It is possible that value added calculat-
ed by the double deflation method could be negative
if the prices of some of the major inputs in year t in-
creased greatly between year 0 and year t.
� Because double deflation is the difference between
two values, it is subject to large fluctuations that
result from small fluctuations in the two other
values."
" Hill investigated the conditions under which double deflation is
the best procedure for estimating value added (Measurement, ch.
2.) Let y be the ratio in constant prices of the inputs used by sector j
in year t compared to year 0:
y=
Let z be the gross output index of sector j:
z = p(j,0)Q(j,t)/p(j,0)()(j,0).
Finally, let x equal the ratio of sector i's inputs to its gross output:
x = Zp(i3O)q(ij,0)/p(j,0)Q(j,0).
It can be shown that the index of value added in constant prices is
the following weighted average of z and y:
v = (wXz)+(l�wXy), where
w = 1/(1�x).
Since x is always less than 1, w is greater than 1 and 1�w is less
than 0.
If sector j uses very few inputs, then x is small, w is close to 1, and
the value-added index approximates a gross output index. If sector
i's use of inputs is high, then w is very large, and the weight for the
inputs, 1�w, becomes a large negative value.
The question now becomes should v be computed as the weighted
average just described, as an index of gross output, or as an index of
some other quantity, such as employment. The answer depends on
the reliability of the various indexes involved. Unfortunately, if
both z and y have some error, the error in v will tend to be the sum
of the two errors rather than their average or difference. Therefore,
the error in v increases rapidly with an increase in uncertainty in
the two other indexes. This error should then be compared with the
error that would be obtained by using the gross output index alone.
45
It turns out that double deflation is optimal only when
knowledge of both the output and input indexes is
perfect. As uncertainty about either index increases,
the advantages of using the gross output index in-
crease.56 Hill surveyed the practice of OECD mem-
bers and found that agriculture is the only sector for
which double deflation is frequently used. This prac-
tice is also true of our sector-of-origin indexes. Except
for agriculture, we use gross output or some other
indicator of the level of production as our index of
value added.
If double deflation is not used, and if a gross output
index is not available or not accurate enough, then
some other indicator must be used. Among those that
have been suggested are an input index; an employ-
ment, hours worked, or deflated wages index; an
employment index plus an arbitrary productivity al-
lowance; or an index of some related industry. In this
study we have used gross physical output in most of
the nonservice sectors. We also use gross output
indexes for some of the service sectors, but many are
simple indexes of man-hour employment. A detailed
list of our sectors and the type of index used for each
follows. The construction of the indexes is described in
appendixes B and C.
Ibid, p. 20, and footnote 55. According to Hill, if x = 0.5 and if
the standard deviations of the errors in the growth rates of the
output and input indexes are both 1 percentage point, then the
difference between the output and input indexes must be at least 2
percentage points in order for double deflation to be preferred to
the use of the gross output index alone.
It is interesting that the gross output index is always closer to the
value-added index than is the input index. The expression of v as a
weighted average of z and y can be rewritten as:
v = wz+(l�w)y
= z+wz�z�(w-1)y
= z+(w�lXz�y).
Therefore, if z > y (gross output grows faster than inputs) and if
w-1 > 0 (the base-year share of inputs is between 0 and 1), then:
v = z+(w�lXz�y)
= z+b, where b > 0, and v > z > y.
The reverse is also true: if z < y, then v < z < y. Therefore, if in-
dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the
gross output index is always a better indicator of value added unless
the errors associated with the gross output index are much larger
than those associated with the input index.
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Soviet GNP Indexes
End-Use Indexes
Consumption. The consumption index (described in
detail in JEC, Consumption) consists of three consum-
er goods indexes and eight consumer services indexes.
The consumer goods indexes are (1) food, (2) soft
goods, and (3) durables. The consumer services index-
es are (1) housing, (2) utilities, (3) transportation, (4)
communications, (5) repair and personal care, (6)
recreation, (7) education, and (8) health.
Consumer Goods. Food. The food index aggregates 18
categories of food. Three basic types of indexes are
used. Ten of the 18 (fish, meat, milk, vegetable oil,
sugar, eggs, potatoes, vegetables, fruit, and flour and
groats) are determined from physical per capita con-
sumption data (published in the Narkhoz) and the size
of the population. The milk, sugar, and flour and
groats figures are known to contain the milk, sugar,
and flour used in making butter, confectionery prod-
ucts, and macaroni products, so deductions are made
in order to avoid double counting. Six of the 18
indexes are based on production data (butter, cheese,
tea, margarine, confectionery products, and bever-
ages), with adjustments for inventory changes and
foreign trade where possible. The other two indexes
(macaroni and tobacco) are based on deflated retail
sales data. Deflated sales data are less satisfactory
than the per capita consumption and production in-
dexes because Soviet price indexes probably under-
state inflation and hence overstate growth. The 18
indexes are each multiplied by a 1970 estimate of
consumption expenditures and then summed for each
year to obtain consumption of food in 1970 estab-
lished prices. For computation of the factor-cost
prices, the food index was subdivided into four
parts�animal products, processed foods, basic foods,
and beverages, so as to take account of the differential
effects of subsidies and taxes on different types of
foods. Conversion to factor-cost prices raises the
weight of animal products and lowers the weight of
beverages.
Soft Goods. The soft goods index is a weighted sum of
indexes for 15 line items. Nine line-item indexes
(cotton, wool, silk, and linen fabrics; haberdashery;
school supplies; publications; household soap; and
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toilet soap) are based on deflated retail sales. Five
line-item indexes (hosiery; leather, rubber, and felt
footwear; and knitwear) are based on physical produc-
tion data, and one (sewn goods) is based on Soviet
reported production in rubles in constant prices. As
with the food index, each line-item index is multiplied
by estimated consumption expenditures in 1970 and
summed. No attempt is made to recompute the
internal weights of the soft goods index in factor-cost
prices.
Durables. The consumer durables index is the least
satisfactory of the consumption indexes. It consists
simply of total deflated retail sales of nonfood goods
less the deflated retail sales of identified nondurable
goods. All retail sales are deflated, if possible, by the
corresponding official retail sales price index. The
resulting series undoubtedly includes some nondura-
bles and is not adequately deflated. There is not
enough information, however, to construct an index
based on production or sales of individual consumer
durables.
Consumer Services. Housing. The housing index is the
stock of housing measured in millions of square
meters of urban and rural housing�the only aggre-
gate data available. Since the index is based on purely
physical measures, it does not capture changes in the
average quality of Soviet housing."
Utilities. The utilities index is a weighted average of
household consumption of electricity, gas, and the
urban housing stock. The latter is intended to repre-
sent household consumption of centralized heat, hot
water, water, and sewage services, for which data are
not available. Information for electricity and gas
consumption is incomplete and involves some interpo-
lations and extrapolations.
Transportation. This index is a weighted average of nine
modes of passenger transportation. Rail, sea, inland-
waterway, bus, and air transport are measured by
passenger-kilometers; tram, trolleybus, and subway
" See JEC, Consumption, for a more detailed discussion of this
problem.
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transport are measured by the number of rides; and
taxi services are measured by the volume of paid
kilometers. It was assumed that 25 percent of the
1970 expenditures on passenger transportation repre-
sented business travel expenditures; this amount was
deducted in arbitrary proportions from the rail, air,
and taxi weights. No allowance was made for a
change in the relative importance of business travel
over time.
Communications. Since a large share (about two-thirds) of
communications activity is considered to be consump-
tion rather than production related, we use our index
for total communications as a sector of origin. This
index is a weighted average of: (1) the volume of
letters, newspapers, parcels, and money orders mailed,
(2) the number of telegrams sent, (3) the stock of
telephones and the volume of long distance telephone
calls, and (4) the stock of radio and television receivers
and the number of radio relay facilities.
Repair and Personal Care. This index is the sum of expen-
ditures on state-supplied services and on private serv-
ices. State services include the repair of clothing,
shoes, furniture, radio and television receivers; dry
cleaning; film processing; and similar household serv-
ices. The index is based on sales data in constant
prices patched together from several Narkhoz series.
Estimates of sales to state organizations were deduct-
ed from the Narkhoz values. Also the value of
materials used in some types of services, but not
included in the Narkhoz data, were added. The
purchase of private services is based on a few reports
of aggregate expenditures and is not a satisfactory
index. It represents, however, a declining share of the
total index; hence, errors in the estimate of private
services should not greatly disturb the total index.
Recreation. The recreation index attempts to measure a
diverse collection of expenditures. It is computed as a
weighted average of the number of movie and theater
admissions, the number of people attending resorts,
and employment in hotels. The latter is a crude
measure of personal expenditures on hotels.
Education. The education index is a weighted average of
indexes of employment and other current expendi-
tures. The employment index is based on man-hour
47
data and is straightforward. The calculation of other
current expenditures is quite complicated. It is based
on budgetary data for several levels of educational
activities. For each level, all labor and capital expend-
itures identified in republic budget data are subtract-
ed from the total, yielding a residual that is assumed
to represent current expenditures other than labor
costs. Each index of nonlabor current expenditures is
then applied to a USSR total for that level of
educational activity to obtain a series of nonlabor
current expenditures expressed in current prices. The
sum of those series is then deflated by our implicit
price index for the consumption of goods."
Health. Construction of this index parallels that of the
education index, but in less detail.
Investment. The index of Soviet investment is a
weighted average of indexes of new fixed investment
and capital repair. The index of new fixed investment,
in turn, is a weighted average of investment in
machinery and equipment, construction and other
capital outlays, and net additions to livestock. The
index of investment in machinery and equipment is
taken directly from the Narkhoz, and is said to be in
constant prices. Most machinery and equipment, how-
ever, are produced by the machinery sector, for which
the published price index is widely believed to be
seriously understated." Thus, we suspect that the
growth of investment in machinery and equipment
may be overstated. The index of construction and
other capital outlays are derived from our sector-of-
origin construction index described below. The two
major products of the construction sector are new
construction and capital repair. The construction
component of capital repair is estimated and then
subtracted from the sector-of-origin index for the
total construction sector. The Narkhoz series on
"See M. Elizabeth Denton, "Soviet Consumer Policy: Trends and
Prospects," JEC, 1979, p. 766, for the derivation of this price index.
An Analysis of the Behavior of Soviet Machinery Prices, 1960-
73, US Central Intelligence Agency, Washington, D.C., 1979; and
Abraham Becker, "The Price Level of Soviet Machinery in the
1960s," Soviet Studies 26, July 1974, pp. 363-379, are two of many
sources that discuss the shortcomings of the official machinery
price index.
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investment in construction-installation work is be-
lieved to overstate the growth of new construction.
While the residual calculation used here is not fully
satisfactory, the resulting index does show slightly
slower growth than the Narkhoz series. The series on
net additions to livestock is a part of the index of
agricultural output and is based on reported changes
in livestock numbers. The major difficulty with this
index is that large changes in livestock inventories
often reflect disproportionate swings in the numbers
of young livestock, whose value per head is less than
average. This causes excessive fluctuations in the
index. The capital repair index is a deflated current-
price index. The major data available on capital
repair are current-price data on amortization deduc-
tions and budget allocations for capital repair. The
machinery and construction components are deflated
separately using price indexes constructed by compar-
ing Soviet production in current prices with our
reconstructions in constant prices.
Other Government Expenditures. Government Admin-
istrative Services. This index is a collection of small
services: (1) general agricultural program, (2) forest-
ry, (3) state administration and administrative organs
of social organizations, (4) culture, (5) municipal
services, and (6) civilian police. All of these indexes
are based on man-hour employment because we have
no physical indicators to measure the output of these
services. As is well known, indexes based on employ-
ment, by definition, do not reflect changes in labor
productivity.
Research and Development. This index attempts to
measure what the Soviet Union defines as science
expenditures. Unfortunately, Soviet data and defini-
tions are not always clear and often conflict with
other published data. The problem is greatly com-
pounded by the belief that Soviet science is heavily
oriented toward military objectives and by the fact
that many different sources of finance exist. Thus,
this index is subject to considerable error in its
interpretation and growth rate. It is constructed as a
weighted average of man-hour employment and other
current expenditures. The employment component is
based on Narkhoz employment data for science and
estimated average annual hours of work. The other
current expenditures component is based on data for
1960-72 from a Soviet monograph and the observa-
tion that other current expenditures were a nearly
constant share of total expenditures in that period.
The resulting current-price expenditure data are de-
flated by a price index made up mostly from Soviet
wholesale price indexes and weighted by the structure
of material expenditures in science.
Outlays n.e.c. This final end-use component is the
residual of total GNP, calculated from the sector-of-
origin indexes, less the identified end-use components
described above. This component includes a large
portion of defense expenditures, net exports, inventory
change, other unidentified outlays, and a statistical
discrepancy.
Sector-of-Origin Indexes
Industry. The index of industrial production is a
weighted average of 10 industrial branch indexes: (1)
ferrous metals; (2) nonferrous metals; (3) fuel; (4)
electric power; (5) machinery; (6) chemicals; (7) wood,
pulp, and paper; (8) construction materials; (9) light
industry; and (10) food industry. Each branch index is
the sum of several subbranch indexes combined by
value-added weights derived from the 1972 1-0 table
in producers' prices. Each subbranch index measures
the gross output of an I-0 sector by summing the
physical production of several products, each multi-
plied by a base-year price. We do not have an index
for the 11th branch, "other branches of industry." We
assume the index for this branch to be the same as
that of total industrial production. The index of
industrial production is explained in detail by Ray
Converse in JEC, Industry.
Construction. It would be desirable to measure con-
struction activity by its gross output, but the only data
available are a current-price gross output series and a
constant-price series for the construction-installation
component of investment (Soviet definition). The lat-
ter excludes a significant part of the output of the
construction sector (capital repair) and probably is not
adequately deflated. For these reasons, we have con-
structed an independent index. It is a weighted aver-
age of material inputs. The structure of inputs is
taken from the 1972 Soviet 1-0 table, and the growth
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of the individual inputs is taken from the correspond-
ing parts of the industrial production and other
indexes. The material-input index is less desirable
than a double deflation or gross output index, but
apparently the best that can be had with the data
available.
Agriculture. The index of net agricultural production
(gross production less intra-agricultural use) is de-
scribed in detail by Margaret Hughes and Barbara
Severin in JEC, Agriculture. It is derived as the sum
of the physical production of 42 products multiplied
by their average 1970 price, less the estimated quanti-
ties of seed and feed used by agriculture itself. The
value-added index is then derived by subtracting an
index of material purchases from nonagricultural
sectors. The weights for this index are based on the
1972 1-0 table.
Transportation. This index is a weighted average of
indexes of freight and passenger transportation. Deri-
vation of the passenger transportation index is the
same as the end-use transportation index, but without
any deductions for business travel in the 1970
weights. The freight transportation index is a weight-
ed average of rail, sea, inland-waterway, oil-pipeline,
truck, air, and gas-pipeline freight transportation. The
output of all of the components is measured in ton-
kilometers, except that of gas pipelines which is
measured in cubic meters of gas shipped. The weights
are 1970 revenues per ton-kilometer or per cubic
meter.
Communications. The communications index is the
same as the one described above as a part of
consumption.
Trade. The trade index is a weighted average of the
three main activities of the domestic trade sector: (1)
retail trade, (2) wholesale trade and material-technical
supply, and (3) agricultural procurement. The retail
trade index is an average of the consumption indexes
for food (less income in kind), soft goods, and dura-
bles. The wholesale trade index is a gross output
weighted average of the indexes of all of the branches
of industry except the electric power and other indus-
try branches. The agricultural procurement index is a
weighted average of state purchases of 16 types of
49
agricultural products. The weights are 1970 procure-
ment prices. The three component indexes are com-
bined with estimated 1970 value-added weights.
Services. The service indexes on the sector-of-origin
side of the accounts are the same as those described in
the list of end-use indexes except that an index is
added for the credit and insurance sector. Only this
index and any differences from the end-use indexes
are described here.
The credit and insurance index represents employ-
ment converted to hours worked. All of the reserva-
tions about employment indexes apply to this index.
Indeed, the credit and insurance index almost certain-
ly fails to capture labor productivity growth that
results from effective application of machine calcula-
tors and computers. We have no evidence, however,
on which we could estimate a productivity allowance.
The sector-of-origin utilities index measures the value
added by that part of the housing-communal economy
sector that supplies water, gas, heat, and sewage
services. The delivery of gas is measured by total gas
production and the delivery of all other services is
measured by the stock of urban housing.
The education and health indexes for sector of origin
use only the labor component of the end-use indexes.
Military Personnel. This is an index of personnel
costs in 1970 prices as estimated by the CIA.
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Appendix A
Soviet Gross National
Product, 1950-80
This appendix presents the main statistical results of
this report. All data included here utilize the 1970
factor-cost weights. A similar set of data could be
calculated using the 1970 established-price weights.
The indexes for each sector (except military personnel)
and their growth rates are the same in both types of
prices. The ruble values, percentage shares of GNP,
and the aggregate indexes are different in factor-cost
prices than in established prices.
Tables A-1 through A-5 contain data on Soviet GNP
by sector of origin. Table A-1 shows the value added
in each sector as measured in 1970 factor-cost rubles.
These data are obtained by multiplying the base-year
(1970) ruble values for each sector by its correspond-
ing index. Total GNP and the subtotals for industry,
services, and government administrative services are
obtained by addition. Tables A-2 and A-3 show
average annual growth rates for five-year periods and
annual growth rates for each component. All of the
growth rates are derived from the ruble data in table
A-1. The percentage distribution of GNP by sector of
origin is shown in table A-4. The percentage values
are derived by dividing the ruble value for each
component by the ruble value for total GNP. The
sectoral indexes used to compute the ruble data are
shown in table A-5. The indexes for total GNP and
the subtotals are derived from the ruble data in table
A-1.
51
Data on Soviet GNP by end use are shown in tables
A-6 through A-12. The ruble values, average annual
growth rates for five-year periods, and annual growth
rates are shown in tables A-6 through A-8 and are
derived in the same manner as the sector-of-origin
data. The data for total GNP are taken directly from
the sector-of-origin tables and the ruble values for
outlays n.e.c. are obtained as the residual of total
GNP less the sum of the other end-use components.
The percentage distribution of GNP by end use and
the sectoral indexes are shown in tables A-11 and
A-12. Tables A-9 and A-10 contain data on per capita
consumption, per capita GNP, and the population
size. Table A-9 presents these data in rubles (the
population data are in millions of people) and table
A-10 has average annual growth rates for five-year
periods.
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Table A-1
GNP by Sector of Origin
Billion 1970 Rubles
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Industry
27.2
30.5
33.1
36.1
39.8
44.1
47.8
51.5
56.1
61.3
Ferrous metals
2.0
2.2
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.5
Nonferrous metals
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
Fuel
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.6
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.6
6.1
6.6
Electric power
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.0
Machinery
8.3
9.1
9.9
10.8
11.8
13.2
14.1
15.1
16.2
17.7
Chemicals
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.6
Wood, pulp, and paper
3.8
4.3
4.5
4.7
5.1
5.4
5.6
6.0
6.6
7.2
Construction materials
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.6
3.0
3.6
4.2
Light industry
2.7
3.2
3.4
3.7
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.9
5.3
5.7
Food industry
2.6
3.0
3.2
3.6
3.9
4.2
4.8
5.1
5.5
6.0
Other industry
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
Construction
5.7
6.5
7.2
7.9
8.8
10.0
10.9
12.1
13.7
15.3
Agriculture
40.8
37.6
39.5
41.9
42.7
48.4
55.5
54.7
59.3
60.5
Transportation
5.2
5.8
6.4
7.0
7.8
9.2
10.2
11.7
12.9
14.3
Communications
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
Trade
6.7
7.3
8.0
8.9
9.8
10.7
11.7
12.6
13.9
14.8
Services
39.4
40.3
41.3
41.9
42.6
43.3
44.2
45.3
47.4
49.4
Housing
13.3
13.7
14.1
14.4
14.9
15.3
15.9
16.6
17.5
18.5
Utilities
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
Repair and personal care
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.8
Recreation
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
Education
6.9
7.1
7.3
7.5
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.5
8.7
8.9
Health
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.1
Science
1.4
1.6
1.7
- 1.8
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.2
Credit and insurance
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
Government administrative
services
9.3
9.3
9.3
8.9
8.3
7.4
7.2
6.9
7.0
6.8
General agricultural pro-
grams
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
Forestry
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
5.2
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.4
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
Culture
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Municipal services
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Civilian police
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
Military personnel
7.5
8.4
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.2
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.7
Other branches
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
Gross national product
133.6
137.7
145.8
153.4
160.7
174.5
189.1
196.2
211.2
223.4
52
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Table A-1 (Continued)
GNP by Sector of Origin
Billion 1970 Rubles
1966
1967
1968
1969
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Industry
65.7
70.1
75.3
79.8
85.0
90.4
95.5
102.1
108.8
114.6
Ferrous metals
4.8
5.3
5.7
6.0
6.5
6.9
7.3
7.7
8.1
8.3
Nonferrous metals
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.7
4.0
4.3
4.6
Fuel
7.0
7.3
7.7
8.4
8.9
9.5
10.1
10.6
11.0
11.4
Electric power
3.3
3.7
4.2
4.6
5.2
5.7
6.1
6.6
7.2
7.7
Machinery
19.3
20.9
23.1
24.5
26.1
27.5
28.8
30.7
33.5
35.8
Chemicals
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.9
4.4
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.0
Wood, pulp, and paper
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.6
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.6
8.8
9.0
Construction materials
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.4
5.7
6.1
6.5
6.9
7.2
7.4
Light industry
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.6
6.8
6.9
7.4
8.0
8.7
9.2
Food industry
6.3
6.8
7.2
7.5
7.9
8.8
9.2
9.8
10.4
11.0
Other industry
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.3
Construction
16.5
17.4
18.2
18.9
19.9
21.1
22.1
23.8
25.0
26.0
Agriculture
59.3
63.4
61.5
48.7
64.4
68.1
70.8
69.7
74.0
70.8
Transportation
15.7
16.8
18.2
19.7
21.5
24.1
25.7
27.9
29.8
31.4
Communications
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.j
Trade
15.8
16.5
17.4
18.1
18.8
20.0
21.6
23.1
24.9
26.2
Services
51.4
53.3
55.8
58.0
60.9
63.8
66.7
69.6
72.7
75.6
Housing
19.6
20.5
21.4
22.3
23.1
23.8
24.6
25.4
26.2
26.9
Utilities
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
Repair and personal care
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.9
4.2
Recreation
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.1
Education
9.1
9.5
10.2
10.7
11.4
12.1
12.7
13.2
13.7
14.1
Health
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.1
7.4
Science
3.7
4.1
4.6
4.9
5.3
5.6
6.0
6.3
6.7
7.2
Credit and insurance
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
Government administrative
services
6.7
6.6
6.8
6.8
7.1
7.5
7.9
8.4
8.9
9.4
General agricultural pro-
grams
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
Forestry
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
1.0
4.1
4.3
Culture
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.3
Municipal services
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
Civilian police
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
Military personnel
5.6
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.4
6.6
6.9
7.2
Other branches
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
Gross national product
232.3
245.3
254.5
251.7
279.4
296.8
311.9
326.3
346.0
355.9
53
93-892 0 - 82 - 5
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Table A-1 (Continued)
GNP by Sector of Origin
Billion 1970 Rubles
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Industry
122.6
130.0
136.6
144.5
153.9
163.4
169.8
176.5
182.6
188.0
193.4
Ferrous metals
8.8
9.1
9.4
9.8
10.2
10.7
11.0
11.0
11.3
11.3
11.3
Nonferrous metals
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.3
Fuel
12.1
12.7
13.3
13.9
14.6
15.4
16.0
16.7
17.2
17.7
18.1
Electric power
8.3
9.0
9.6
10.3
11.0
11.7
12.5
12.9
13.5
13.9
14.6
Machinery
38.5
41.7
44.5
48.3
52.4
56.4
59.5
62.9
66.4
70.1
73.2
Chemicals
7.8
8.4
8.9
9.7
10.7
11.7
12.3
12.9
13.4
13.4
14.1
Wood, pulp, and paper
9.4
9.7
9.8
10.1
10.3
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.3
10.6
Construction materials
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.4
10.8
11.0
11.2
11.3
11.4
Light industry
9.8
10.2
10.3
10.6
10.8
11.2
11.6
11.9
12.2
12.4
12.7
Food industry
11.6
11.9
12.3
12.4
13.4
14.1
13.9
14.5
14.3
14.8
14.6
Other industry
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.6
Construction
28.0
29.9
31.5
33.3
35.0
36.8
38.0
38.9
40.1
40.4
41.4
Agriculture
81.0
79.6
72.8
84.9
83.0
72.0
80.2
83.0
85.9
78.8
73.1
Transportation
33.4
35.7
37.6
40.3
43.2
45.8
47.8
48.8
51.1
52.3
54.3
Communications
3.3
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.6
5.9
6.2
Trade
28.0
29.4
30.3
31.9
33.5
35.1
36.3
37.6
38.9
39.8
40.7
Services
78.5
81.4
84.3
87.1
90.0
92.8
95.1
97.4
100.4
103.4
106.6
Housing
27.7
28.5
29.2
30.0
30.8
31.6
32.3
33.1
33.9
34.6
35.3
Utilities
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.6
Repair and personal care
4.6
4.8
5.2
5.5
5.9
6.2
6.6
6.9
7.4
7.9
8.4
Recreation
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
Education
14.5
15.0
15.3
15.6
15.9
16.3
16.6
16.9
17.3
17.7
18.3
Health
7.6
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.6
8.8
8.9
9.0
9.3
9.3
Science
7.8
8.3
8.9
9.5
9.9
10.4
10.6
10.9
11.2
11.7
12.2
Credit and insurance
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
Government administrative services
9.6
10.0
10.4
10.7
11.2
11.6
11.9
12.3
12.7
13.0
13.4
General agricultural programs
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
Forestry
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
State administration and the
administrative organs of social
organizations
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.9
Culture
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
Municipal services
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
Civilian police
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
Military personnel
7.4
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.3
Other branches
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
Gross national product
383.3
398.2
405.7
435.2
452.2
459.7
481.6
497.0
514.1
518.2
525.4
54
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Table A-2
Percent
Average Annual Rates of Growth of GNP by Sector of Origin
1971-75
1976-80
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
Industry
10.2
8.3
6.6
6.3
5.9
3.4
Ferrous metals
11.1
7.6
7.2
5.1
4.0
1.1
Nonferrous metals
12.8
6.9
7.6
7.4
5.9
2.6
Fuel
9.4
8.9
6.3
5.0
5.0
3.3
Electric power
13.1
11.4
11.5
7.9
7.0
4.5
Machinery
9.6
7.9
7.4
6.9
7.9
5.3
Chemicals
11.6
1().5
12.0
8.9
8.6
3.8
Wood, pulp, and paper
7.4
5.8
2.6
2.9
2.6
-0.1
Construction materials
15.7
14.7
5.4
5.7
5.4
1.8
Light industry
10.4
6.4
2.6
7.2
2.7
2.6
Food industry
10.2
8.4
6.8
5.9
3.9
0.7
Other industry
10.2
8.3
6.6
6.3
5.9
3.4
Construction
11.8
10.5
5.0
5.8
5.6
2.4
Agriculture
3.5
4.2
2.8
3.5
-2.3
0.3
Transportation
12.3
11.3
9.0
6.7
6.5
3.5
Communications
8.1
7.0
7.1
8.9
7.3
5.8
Trade
9.9
8.2
4.8
7.0
4.6
3.0
Services
1.9
3.5
4.4
4.2
3.4
2.8
Housing
2.9
5.0
4.0
3.1
2.7
2.2
Utilities
5.4
9.1
8.1
5.5
5.1
5.0
Repair and personal care
1.8
2.2
2.3
8.9
6.5
6.2
Recreation
7.5
4.0
3.5
2.8
1.9
1.4
Education
3.6
2.2
5.9
3.7
2.2
2.5
Health
5.0
4.4
3.8
3.6
2.6
1.6
Science
7.5
12.5
9.0
6.7
6.0
3.2
Credit and insurance
-0.1
-:2.4
1.5
5.5
5.9
4.6
Government administrative services
-4.5
-1.8
2.2
5.2
3.8
3.0
General agricultural programs
-4.5
9.7
-1.3
4.8
4.8
5.4
Forestry
-2.8
-4.0
1.3
1.7
0.9
0.3
State administration and the administrative
organs of social organizations
-6.0
-4.1
2.2
4.9
3.5
2.5
Culture
3.5
1.6
5.5
8.4
5.0
3.6
Municipal services
2.7
1.4
3.4
5.3
4.5
3.3
Civilian police
-6.0
-4.1
2.2
4.9
3.5
2.5
Military personnel
-0.8
-4.8
2.2
3.4
1.6
0.6
Other branches
5.5
5.9
5.0
5.2
3.7
2.7
Gross national product
5.5
5.9
5.0
5.2
3.7
2.7
55
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-3
Percent
Annual Growth Rates of GNP by Sector of Origin
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
Industry
12.2
8.5
9.1
10.1
11.0
8.2
7.7
9.0
9.3
7.2
Ferrous metals
13.0
13.7
9.7
9.0
10.1
7.6
5.9
6.8
8.7
8.8
Nonferrous metals
13.3
12.5
11.5
9.4
17.4
6.0
5.6
5.6
8.1
9.0
Fuel
9.2
6.9
6.9
10.3
13.8
11.0
11.5
9.2
7.0
6.0
Electric power
13.8
14.4
12.8
11.8
12.7
12.7
9.5
12.3
12.4
10.2
Machinery
9.8
8.6
8.9
9.0
11.8
7.2
6.8
7.5
9.0
9.1
Chemicals
9.8
9.1
10.3
13.8
14.9
12.2
9.5
12.2
8.7
10.1
Wood, pulp, and paper
13.4
3.9
4.3
10.1
5.5
3.6
7.0
9.3
9.2
0.1
Construction materials
13.7
12.8
16.7
16.5
18.8
11.0
16.2
19.3
15.1
12.1
Light industry
17.5
6.4
9.5
11.8
7.1
5.9
4.6
8.0
7.6
5.7
Food industry
14.7
9.0
11.0
7.2
9.3
12.9
6.6
7.5
10.4
4.7
Other industry
12.2
8.5
9.1
10.1
11.0
8.2
7.7
9.0
9.3
7.2
Construction
14.1
10.4
10.3
11.3
13.2
8.8
10.9
13.1
12.3
7.6
Agriculture
-8.0
5.1
6.0
2.0
13.3
14.7
-1.5
8.4
2.1
-2.0
Transportation
12.1
9.8
10.3
10.6
18.7
11.3
13.9
10.5
11.1
9.7
Communications
9.3
9.0
6.4
8.2
7.5
7.7
7.7
5.8
6.4
7.6
Trade
8.8
9.7
11.0
10.5
9.2
9.3
8.0
9.9
6.9
6.8
Services
2.4
2.4
1.4
1.7
1.5
2.2
2.3
4.7
4.3
4.0
Housing
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.5
4.3
5.3
5.9
5.8
Utilities
4.1
4.1
5.4
6.7
6.8
7.0
8.6
10.8
9.8
9.3
Repair and personal care
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.0
-2.2
-0.7
5.6
13.2
-3.8
Recreation
3.8
4.6
4.9
10.3
14.4
3.9
3.6
6.5
2.1
3.9
Education
3.4
3.3
2.5
4.6
4.1
1.4
1.9
2.5
2.2
2.8
Health
4.1
3.9
3.6
6.9
6.3
2.8
4.4
5.4
4.6
4.7
Science
9.9
8.2
5.0
5.8
9.0
13.2
10.8
13.3
10.9
14.4
Credit and insurance
-0.7
-0.7
0.2
0.2
0.2
-2.1
-4.2
-1.1
-2.7
-1.9
Government administrative
services
0
0
-3.8
-7.3
-10.9
-1.9
-4.6
1.2
-2.6
-1.2
General agricultural
programs
8.4
7.5
-8.5
3.7
-27.9
9.0
-4.1
18.7
5.5
21.5
Forestry
1.7
1.7
-10.1
-3.5
-3.4
-2.2
-5.6
-3.3
-6.7
-1.9
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
-10.7
-12.0
-3.8
-5.8
-0.7
-4.3
-5.9
Culture
3.4
3.2
2.5
4.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.5
1.3
1.7
Municipal services
3.9
3.7
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.6
0.9
1.2
0.7
1.8
Civilian police
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
-10.7
-12.0
-3.8
-5.8
-0.7
-4.3
-5.9
Military personnel
12.5
7.4
-8.0
-7.3
-6.8
-2.0
-5.9
-8.3
-6.9
-0.6
Other branches
3.1
5.9
5.2
4.7
8.6
8.4
3.8
7.6
5.8
4.0
Gross national product
3.1
5.9
5.2
4.7
8.6
8.4
3.8
7.6
5.8
4.0
56
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-3 (Continued)
Annual Growth Rates of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
Industry
6.7
7.4
6.0
6.4
6.5
5.6
6.9
6.5
5.4
7.0
Ferrous metals
8.5
7.7
6.2
7.3
6.4
6.2
5.7
4.6
3.5
5.5
Nonferrous metals
8.4
8.9
7.8
6.0
7.2
9.7
8.9
8.0
5.0
5.6
Fuel
4.9
5.8
8.4
6.5
5.9
6.4
5.2
3.5
4.4
5.5
Electric power
12.1
12.8
11.2
11.2
10.0
7.6
7.7
8.8
7.9
7.6
Machinery
8.5
10.2
6.4
6.4
5.5
4.5
6.7
9.0
6.9
7.7
Chemicals
9.9
10.5
10.8
13.7
14.9
10.0
10.0
7.2
6.1
11.3
Wood, pulp, and paper
-0.1
2.4
4.2
4.5
2.0
0.5
5.0
2.4
1.8
4.9
Construction materials
7.4
5.1
2.8
4.8
6.9
7.2
7.1
3.9
2.0
8.5
Light industry
3.6
3.5
1.4
3.0
1.8
7.4
8.3
7.9
6.4
5.9
Food industry
7.3
6.2
4.2
5.3
11.2
4.5
7.4
5.6
5.7
6.0
Other industry
6.7
7.4
6.0
6.4
6.5
5.6
6.9
6.5
5.4
7.0
Construction
5.2
4.7
3.9
5.1
6.3
4.6
7.6
5.3
4.0
7.7
Agriculture
6.9
-3.0
-20.8
32.1
5.8
4.0
-1.6
6.3
-4.4
14.4
Transportation
7.2
8.0
8.3
9.3
12.0
6.4
8.7
6.9
5.1
6.6
Communications
5.9
6.2
5.9
7.1
10.4
10.5
10.3
7.2
8.7
7.5
Trade
3.9
5.8
4.1
3.9
6.1
7.9
7.4
7.4
5.4
7.0
Services
3.7
4.7
3.9
5.2
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.6
3.9
3.8
Housing
5.0
4.4
� 4.0
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
Utilities
9.2
8.4
8.0
7.7
7.2
6.1
5.7
5.2
5.0
5.4
Repair and personal care
-8.2
-1.5
2.3
8.8
11.1
10.3
9.8
9.3
6.4
8.8
Recreation
3.6
2.3
0.9
7.3
3.8
0.7
6.1
4.3
1.3
1.7
Education
4.5
6.9
5.5
6.7
5.9
4.8
3.6
4.2
3.1
3.0
Health
4.0
3.8
2.9
4.0
4.4
3.8
2.8
4.6
3.9
3.0
Science
11.8
11.1
7.9
8.8
5.4
6.6
4.2
6.9
6.9
8.7
Credit and insurance
0
2.2
1.9
2.9
0.6
4.9
5.4
5.4
5.1
6.7
Government administrative
services
-1.1
2.0
0.4
4.2
5.5
5.5
7.0
5.7
5.1
2.7
General agricultural
programs
-9.7
-1.4
-1.4
3.7
2.9
5.9
9.4
7.5
1.5
-0.1
Forestry
0.7
2.9
2.3
1.8
-1.3
2.2
1.0
2.4
1.4
1.4
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
-0.5
1.6
-0.8
4.0
7.0
5.9
6.6
4.9
5.4
1.9
Culture
3.2
6.4
5.4
6.8
5.6
4.8
10.0
10.1
8.8
8.3
Municipal services
1.1
3.3
3.9
5.1
3.7
4.8
7.7
4.9
4.9
3.9
Civilian police
-0.5
1.6
-0.8
4.0
7.0
5.9
6.6
4.9
5.4
1.9
Military personnel
-2.2
4.1
3.6
3.2
2.2
1.9
3.8
4.8
4.3
2.1
Other branches
5.6
3.8
-1.1
11.0
6.3
5.1
4.6
6.0
2.9
7.7
Gross national product
5.6
3.8
-1.1
11.0
6.3
5.1
4.6
6.0
2.9
7.7
57
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-3 (Continued)
Annual Growth Rates of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Industry
6.1
5.0
5.8
6.5
6.2
3.9
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.9
Ferrous metals
3.8
3.3
4.0
4.2
4.4
2.7
0.7
2.2
0.0
-0.3
Nonferrous metals
7.0
5.3
6.1
6.2
4.7
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.0
0.8
Fuel
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.9
5.9
3.7
4.2
3.1
3.0
2.3
Electric power
8.1
7.1
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.9
3.6
4.7
2.9
4.5
Machinery
8.1
6.9
8.3
8.5
7.7
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
4.3
Chemicals
8.1
6.7
9.0
9.5
9.7
4.8
5.2
3.6
0.2
5.2
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.8
2.0
2.7
1.8
3.6
-0.1
0.5
-0.5
-2.9
2.8
Construction materials
6.7
5.2
6.0
4.7
4.5
3.5
1.9
2.4
0.3
1.0
Light industry
4.5
0.7
2.8
2.7
2.9
4.2
2.5
2.6
1.8
2.0
Food industry
2.6
3.3
0.8
7.9
5.1
-1.1
4.0
-1.1
3.2
-1.4
Other industry
6.1
5.0
5.8
6.5
6.2
3.9
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.9
Construction
6.7
5.2
5.9
5.3
4.9
3.4
2.4
3.0
0.8
2.5
Agriculture
-1.7
-8.5
16.7
-2.2
-13.3
11.4
3.5
3.5
-8.3
-7.3
Transportation
6.7
5.5
7.2
7.0
6.1
4.4
2.2
4.6
2.3
3.9
Communications
7.3
7.4
7.2
7.2
7.2
6.4
5.7
5.5
5.6
5.6
Trade
4.8
3.3
5.3
5.0
4.5
3.6
3.6
3.4
2.4
2.4
Services
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.5
2.5
3.1
3.0
3.1
Housing
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
Utilities
5.0
4.2
4.8
5.7
5.8
5.7
4.8
4.8
5.2
4.4
Repair and personal care
6.2
6.7
6.9
6.5
5.9
5.8
4.8
7.0
6.8
6.7
Recreation
2.7
1.4
2.1
1.9
1.3
-1.2
0.8
2.9
1.9
2.6
Education
2.9
2.3
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
2.9
2.1
3.6
Health
3.4
2.7
2.2
2.5
1.9
1.9
1.3
1.2
2.7
0.9
Science
6.7
7.4
6.8
4.4
4.9
1.4
2.6
3.5
4.3
4.3
Credit and insurance
6.6
6.6
5.2
6.3
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.2
4.6
2.8
Government administrative
services
4.2
3.8
3.4
4.2
3.5
3.1
2.8
3.3
2.7
3.0
General agricultural
programs
6.8
4.5
4.0
4.1
4.6
9.1
2.3
6.2
3.9
5.6
Forestry
0.4
2.3
-0.5
1.4
0.7
-0.9
0.4
1.3
0.0
0.4
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
3.3
3.5
3.2
4.2
3.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.9
Culture
6.9
4.2
4.7
5.4
4.0
3.9
5.6
4.1
2.2
2.4
Municipal services
5.9
4.9
3.7
4.2
3.7
2.4
3.6
4.3
3.2
2.8
Civilian police
3.3
3.5
3.2
4.2
3.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.9
Military personnel
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.2
0.1
0.5
0.7
0.6
Other branches
3.9
1.9
7.3
3.9
1.7
4.8
3.2
3.4
0.8
1.4
Gross national product
3.9
1.9
7.3
3.9
1.7
4.8
3.2
3.4
0.8
1.4
58
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-4
Percentage Shares of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Industry
20.4
22.2
22.7
23.5
24.7
25.3
25.3
26.2
26.6
27.4
Ferrous metals
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
Nonferrous metals
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.0
Fuel
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
Electric power
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
Machinery
6.2
6.6
6.8
7.1
7.3
7.6
7.5
7.7
7.7
7.9
Chemicals
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
Construction materials
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
Light industry
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
Food industry
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
Other industry
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
Construction
4.3
4.7
4.9
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.8
6.2
6.5
6.9
Agriculture
30.6
27.3
27.1
27.3
26.6
27.7
29.4
27.9
28.1
27.1
Transportation
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.3
5.4
5.9
6.1
6.4
Communications
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Trade
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.6
Services
29.5
29.3
28.3
27.3
26.5
24.8
23.4
23.1
22.4
22.1
Housing
10.0
9.9
9.6
9.4
9.3
8.8
8.4
8.4
8.3
8.3
Utilities
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
Repair and personal care
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Recreation
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Education
5.1
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.0
Health
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
Science
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
Credit and insurance
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
Government administrative
services
6.9
6.7
6.4
5.8
5.1
4.2
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.0
General agricultural
programs
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Forestry
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
3.9
3.8
3.5
3.2
2.7
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.5
Culture
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Municipal services
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
Civilian police
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
Military personnel
5.6
6.1
6.2
5.4
4.8
4.1
3.7
3.4
2.9
2.5
Other branches
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
59
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-4 (Continued)
Percentage Shares of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Industry
28.3
28.6
29.6
31.7
30.4
30.5
30.6
31.3
31.4
32.2
Ferrous metals
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
Nonferrous metals
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
Fuel
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
Electric power
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
Machinery
8.3
8.5
9.1
9.7
9.3
9.3
9.2
9.4
9.7
10.1
Chemicals
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
Wood, pulp, and paper
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
Construction materials
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
Light industry
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
Food industry
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
Other industry
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Construction
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.5
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.2
7.3
Agriculture
25.5
25.9
24.2
19.4
23.0
22.9
22.7
21.4
21.4
19.9
Transportation
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.8
7.7
8.1
8.2
8.6
8.6
8.8
Communications
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
Trade
6.8
6.7
6.8
7.2
6.7
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.2
7.4
Services
22.1
21.7
21.9
23.0
21.8
21.5
21.4
21.3
21.0
21.2
Housing
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.9
8.3
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.6
7.6
Utilities
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Repair and personal care
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
Recreation
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Education
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
Health
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
Science
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
Credit and insurance
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Government administrative
services
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
General agricultural
programs
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Forestry
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Culture
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
Municipal services
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Civilian police
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Military personnel
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Other branches
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
60
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-4 (Continued)
Percentage Shares of GNP by Sector of Origin
Percent
1977
1978
1979
1980
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Industry
32.0
32.7
33.7
33.2
34.0
35.5
35.2
35.5
35.5
36.3
36.8
Ferrous metals
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
Nonferrous metals
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
Fuel
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
Electric power
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
Machinery
10.1
10.5
11.0
11.1
11.6
12.3
12.4
12.7
12.9
13.5
13.9
Chemicals
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
Construction materials
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Light industry
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
Food industry
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
Other industry
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
Construction
7.3
7.5
7.8
7.6
7.7
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.9
Agriculture
21.1
20.0
17.9
19.5
18.4
15.7
16.7
16.7
16.7
15.2
13.9
Transportation
8.7
9.0
9.3
9.3
9.5
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.9
10.1
10.3
Communications
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
Trade
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.7
Services
20.5
20.4
20.8
20.0
19.9
20.2
19.7
19.6
19.5
20.0
20.3
Housing
7.2
7.1
7.2
6.9
6.8
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.7
6.7
Utilities
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
Repair and personal care
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
Recreation
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Education
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
Health
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
Science
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
Credit and insurance
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Government administrative
services
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
General agricultural programs
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Forestry
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
State administration and the
administrative organs of social
organizations
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
Culture
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Municipal services
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Civilian police
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
Military personnel
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
Other branches
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
61
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-5
Indexes of GNP by Sector of Origin
1958
1970 =
1959
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Industry
22.2
24.9
27.0
29.5
32.4
36.0
38.9
42.0
45.7
50.0
Ferrous metals
22.6
25.6
29.1
31.9
34.8
38.3
41.2
43.7
46.6
50.7
Nonferrous metals
19.0
21.5
24.2
27.0
29.6
34.7
36.8
38.9
41.0
44.4
Fuel
24.0
26.3
28.1
30.0
33.1
37.6
41.8
46.6
50.9
54.5
Electric power
12.5
14.2
16.2
18.3
20.5
23.1
26.0
28.5
32.0
36.0
Machinery
21.6
23.7
25.8
28.1
30.6
34.2
36.7
39.2
42.1
45.9
Chemicals
13.0
14.3
15.6
17.2
19.6
22.5
25.3
27.7
31.0
33.7
Wood, pulp, and paper
40.4
45.8
47.6
49.6
54.7
57.6
59.7
63.9
69.9
76.3
Construction materials
14.2
16.1
18.2
21.2
24.7
29.4
32.6
37.9
45.2
52.0
Light industry
27.8
32.7
34.7
38.1
42.6
45.6
48.3
50.5
54.5
58.7
Food industry
22.3
25.5
27.9
30.9
33.1
36.2
40.9
43.5
46.8
51.7
Other industry
22.2
24.9
27.0
29.5
32.4
36.0
38.9
42.0
45.7
50.0
Construction
20.4
23.3
25.7
28.3
31.5
35.7
38.9
43.1
48.7
54.7
Agriculture
50.4
46.4
48.8
51.7
52.8
59.8
68.6
67.6
73.2
74.7
Transportation
15.5
17.3
19.0
21.0
23.2
27.6
30.7
34.9
38.6
42.9
Communications
22.4
24.5
26.7
28.4
30.8
33.1
35.6
38.4
40.6
43.2
Trade
23.9
26.0
28.5
31.6
34.9
38.2
41.7
45.1
49.5
52.9
Services
50.2
51.4
52.7
53.4
54.3
55.1
56.4
57.7
60.4
62.9
Housing
48.1
49.4
50.7
52.1
53.6
55.4
57.3
59.8
63.0
66.7
Utilities
25.9
26.9
28.0
29.6
31.5
33.7
36.0
39.1
43.4
47.6
Repair and personal care
47.8
48.6
49.3
50.2
51.1
52.2
51.0
50.7
53.5
60.6
Recreation
41.9
43.5
45.5
47.8
52.7
60.3
62.6
64.9
69.1
70.5
Education
47.2
48.8
50.4
51.7
54.0
56.2
57.0
58.1
59.5
60.8
Health
44.0
45.8
47.6
49.3
52.7
56.0
57.6
60.2
63.4
66.4
Science
18.2
20.0
21.6
22.7
24.0
26.2
29.6
32.8
37.2
41.3
Credit and insurance
80.8
80.3
79.8
79.9
80.1
80.3
78.6
75.3
74.5
72.4
Government administrative
services
96.4
96.4
96.4
92.7
86.0
76.6
75.1
71.7
72.6
70.7
General agricultural pro-
grams
66.7
72.3
77.7
71.1
73.7
53.1
57.9
55.5
65.9
69.5
Forestry
121.8
123.9
126.0
113.3
109.3
105.6
103.2
97.4
94.2
87.9
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
118.3
116.6
114.8
110.7
98.9
87.0
83.7
78.8
78.2
74.9
Culture
39.9
41.2
42.5
43.6
45.5
47.3
47.8
48.5
49.7
50.4
Municipal services
53.4
55.4
57.5
58.7
59.8
60.9
62.5
63.1
63.9
64.3
Civilian police
118.3
116.6
114.8
110.7
98.9
87.0
83.7
78.8
78.2
74.9
Military personnel
101.4
114.0
122.5
112.7
104.4
97.3
95.4
89.8
82.3
76.5
Other branches
34.9
35.9
38.0
40.0
41.9
45.5
49.3
51.2
55.1
58.3
Gross national product
34.9
35.9
38.0
40.0
41.9
45.5
49.3
51.2
55.1
58.3
62
100
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-5 (Continued)
Indexes of GNP by Sector of Origin
1966
1967
1968
1970 =
1969
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Industry
53.6
57.2
61.4
65.1
69.3
73.8
77.9
83.3
88.7
93.5
Ferrous metals
55.1
59.8
64.4
68.4
73.4
78.1
82.9
87.6
91.6
94.8
Nonferrous metals
48.4
52.4
57.1
61.5
65.2
69.9
76.7
83.5
90.2
94.7
Fuel
57.7
60.6
64.1
69.4
73.9
78.3
83.3
87.7
90.8
94.8
Electric power
39.7
44.5
50.2
55.8
62.0
68.3
73.5
79.1
86.1
92.9
Machinery
50.1
54.3
59.8
63.7
67.7
71.5
74.7
79.7
86.9
92.9
Chemicals
37.1
40.8
45.1
50.0
56.8
65.3
71.8
79.0
84.7
89.8
Wood, pulp, and paper
76.4
76.3
78.1
81.4
85.1
86.8
87.2
91.5
93.7
95.4
Construction materials
58.3
62.6
65.8
67.6
70.9
75.8
81.2
87.0
90.4
92.2
Light industry
62.1
64.3
66.6
67.5
69.5
70.7
76.0
82.3
88.8
94.4
Food industry
54.1
58.1
61.7
64.3
67.7
75.3
78.6
84.4
89.2
94.3
Other industry
53.6
57.2
61.4
65.1
69.3
73.8
77.9
83.3
88.7
93.5
Construction
58.9
62.0
64.9
67.4
70.9
75.3
78.8
84.8
89.3
92.8
Agriculture
73.3
78.3
75.9
60.2
79.5
84.1
87.4
86.0
91.4
87.4
Transportation
47.0
50.4
54.4
59.0
64.4
72.2
76.9
83.6
89.3
93.8
Communications
46.5
49.2
52.3
55.3
59.3
65.4
72.3
79.8
85.5
93.0
Trade
56.5
58.7
62.2
64.7
67.2
71.3
76.9
82.6
88.7
93.5
Services
65.5
67.9
71.1
73.9
77.7
81.3
85.0
88.6
92.7
96.3
Housing
70.6
74.1
77.4
80.5
83.3
86.0
88.8
91.6
94.5
97.3
Utilities
52.0
56.8
61.5
66.4
71.5
76.6
81.3
85.9
90.4
94.9
Repair and personal care
58.3
53.5
52.7
54.0
58.7
65.3
72.0
79.0
86.4
91.9
Recreation
73.2
75.8
77.6
78.3
84.0
87.2
87.8
93.1
97.1
98.3
Education
62.5
65.3
69.9
73.7
78.7
83.3
87.3
90.4
94.2
97.1
97.1
Health
69.4
72.2
75.0
77.2
80.3
83.8
86.9
89.4
93.4
Science
47.2
52.7
58.6
63.2
68.7
72.4
77.3
80.5
86.0
92.0
Credit and insurance
71.0
71.0
72.6
74.0
76.1
76.6
80.3
84.6
89.2
93.8
Government administrative
services
69.8
69.0
70.4
70.7
73.7
77.7
81.9
87.7
92.7
97.4
General agricultural pro-
grams
84.5
76.4
75.3
74.2
77.0
79.2
83.9
91.7
98.6
100.1
Forestry
86.2
86.9
89.4
91.5
93.1
91.9
94.0
94.9
97.2
98.6
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
70.5
70.1
71.2
70.7
73.5
78.6
83.3
88.8
93.1
98.1
92.4
Culture
51.3
52.9
56.3
59.3
63.4
66.9
70.1
77.1
84.9
Municipal services
65.4
66.2
68.3
71.0
74.6
77.4
81.1
87.4
91.7
96.2
Civilian police
70.5
70.1
71.2
70.7
73.5
78.6
83.3
88.8
93.1
98.1
Military personnel
76.1
74.4
77.5
80.3
82.9
84.8
86.4
89.6
93.9
98.0
Other branches
60.6
64.0
66.4
65.7
72.9
77.4
81.4
85.1
90.3
92.9
Gross national product
60.6
64.0
66.4
65.7
72.9
77.4
81.4
85.1
90.3
92.9
63
100
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-5 (Continued)
1970= 100
Indexes of GNP by Sector of Origin
1978 1979 1980
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
Industry
100.0
106.1
111.4
117.9
125.5
133.2
138.4
143.9
148.9 153.4 157.8
Ferrous metals
100.0
103.8
107.3
111.6
116.3
121.5
124.7
125.6
128.4 128.4 128.0
Nonferrous metals
100.0
107.0
112.7
119.6
126.9
132.9
137.1
141.3
145.9 150.2 151.4
Fuel
100.0
104.8
109.8
115.1
120.7
127.8
132.5
138.1
142.5 146.7 150.1
Electric power
100.0
108.1
115.8
123.6
131.9
140.6
150.3
155.7
162.9 167.7 175.3
Machinery
100.0
108.1
115.6
125.3
136.0
146.4
154.5
163.2
172.4 182.0 190.0
Chemicals
100.0
108.1
115.3
125.7
137.7
151.0
158.3
166.6
172.5 172.9 181.9
Wood, pulp, and paper
100.0
102.8
104.8
107.7
109.6
113.6
113.4
114.0
113.4 110.2 113.2
Construction materials
100.0
106.7
112.3
119.0
124.6
130.2
134.8
137.4
140.7 141.2 142.6
Light industry
100.0
104.5
105.3
108.2
111.1
114.3
119.0
122.1
125.2 127.4 130.0
Food industry
100.0
102.6
105.9
106.7
115.2
121.1
119.7
124.5
123.2 127.2 125.4
Other industry
100.0
106.1
111.4
117.9
125.5
133.2
138.4
143.9
148.9 153.4 157.8
Construction
100.0
106.7
112.2
118.8
125.0
131.2
135.6
138.9
143.0 144.1 147.7
Agriculture
100.0
98.3
89.9
104.8
102.5
88.9
99.1
102.5
106.1 97.3 90.2
Transportation
100.0
106.7
112.6
120.7
129.2
137.0
143.0
146.2
152.9 156.5 162.5
Communications
100.0
107.3
115.2
123.5
132.4
142.0
151.1
159.6
168.4 177.9 187.9
Trade
100.0
104.8
108.3
114.0
119.7
125.1
129.6
134.2
138.7 142.0 145.3
Services
100.0
103.7
107.4
111.0
114.7
118.2
121.2
124.2
127.9 131.8 135.8
Housing
100.0
102.7
105.5
108.4
111.2
114.1
116.8
119.5
122.2 124.8 127.4
Utilities
100.0
105.0
109.4
114.7
121.3
128.3
135.7
142.2
149.0 156.7 163.6
Repair and personal care
100.0
106.2
113.4
121.2
129.1
136.7
144.6
151.6
162.2 173.2 184.9
Recreation
100.0
102.7
104.2
106.4
108.4
109.8
108.5
109.4
112.6 114.7 117.6
Education
100.0
102.9
105.2
107.1
109.5
111.7
113.8
115.8
119.2 121.7 126.1
Health
100.0
103.4
106.2
108.5
111.3
113.4
115.6
117.1
118.5 121.7 122.8
Science
100.0
106.7
114.6
122.4
127.8
134.1
136.1
139.6
144.5 150.7 157.2
Credit and insurance
100.0
106.6
113.6
119.5
127.0
133.5
140.4
147.3
155.0 162.2 166.8
Government administrative
services
100.0
104.2
108.2
111.8
116.5
120.6
124.3
127.7
132.0 135.5 139.6
General agricultural pro-
grams
100.0
106.8
111.6
116.1
120.8
126.5
138.0
141.1
149.9 155.7 164.4
Forestry
100.0
100.4
102.7
102.2
103.7
104.4
103.5
103.9
105.3 105.3 105.8
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
100.0
103.3
107.0
110.4
115.0
118.8
121.3
124.0
127.2 130.6 134.3
Culture
100.0
106.9
111.5
116.7
123.0
127.9
132.8
140.3
146.1 149.2 152.9
Municipal services
100.0
105.9
111.1
115.2
120.0
124.4
127.4
132.0
137.6 141.9 146.0
Civilian police
100.0
103.3
107.0
110.4
115.0
118.8
121.3
124.0
127.2 130.6 134.3
Military personnel
100.0
102.7
104.7
105.9
107.2
108.4
109.7
109.9
110.4 111.2 111.8
Other branches
100.0
103.9
105.9
113.6
118.0
120.0
125.7
129.7
134.1 135.2 137.1
Gross national product
100.0
103.9
105.9
113.6
118.0
120.0
125.7
129.7
134.1 135.2 137.1
64
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-6
Billion 1970 Rubles
GNP by End Use
1958
1959
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Consumption
80.1
80.6
85.5
91.1
96.2
101.6
106.4
113.7
121.7
127.2
Consumer goods
50.3
49.9
53.6
58.1
61.6
65.1
68.6
74.3
80.2
83.3
Food
42.9
41.5
44.7
47.9
49.5
52.3
54.7
59.1
63.7
65.6
Animal products
21.3
21.6
22.2
23.4
24.6
25.3
27.5
30.2
34.3
35.8
Processed foods
2.7
3.5
3.9
4.7
3.9
4.8
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.9
Basic foods
17.0
14.2
16.1
17.1
17.9
18.7
18.4
19.5
19.6
19.8
Beverages
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.6
4.0
4.2
4.2
Soft goods
6.3
7.2
7.6
8.4
9.8
10.3
11.2
11.9
12.8
13.7
Durables
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.8
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.3
3.6
3.9
Consumer services
29.8
30.7
31.8
33.0
34.6
36.5
37.8
39.4
41.6
44.0
Housing
13.0
13.3
13.7
14.0
14.5
14.9
15.5
16.1
17.0
18.0
Utilities
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Transportation
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.4
Communications
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
Repair and personal care
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.5
Recreation
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.6
Education
7.4
7.5
7.8
8.0
8.3
8.7
8.9
9.2
9.4
9.7
Health
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.4
5.7
6.0
6.4
Investment
19.0
22.6
22.7
26.2
28.1
34.1
38.8
43.3
48.1
53.4
New fixed investment
16.1
19.4
19.2
22.3
23.9
28.9
32.6
36.3
40.1
44.0
Machinery and equipment
3.5
3.5
3.8
4.0
4.7
5.8
7.3
8.0
9.0
9.8
Construction and other
capital outlays
12.3
14.2
15.9
17.4
19.3
21.4
22.7
24.8
28.0
31.6
Net additions to livestock
0.3
1.7
-0.5
0.9
-0.2
1.7
2.6
3.5
3.1
2.7
Capital repair
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.9
4.3
5.2
6.2
7.1
7.9
9.3
Other government expenditures
34.5
34.5
37.7
36.1
36.3
38.8
43.9
39.2
41.4
42.8
Government administrative
services
10.4
10.4
10.4
10.0
9.3
8.3
8.1
7.7
7.8
7.6
General agricultural pro-
grams
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
Forestry
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.0
4.4
4.2
4.0
4.0
3.8
Culture
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
Municipal services
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
Civilian police
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
Research and development
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.6
3.9
4.5
5.0
Outlays n.e.c.
21.9
21.6
24.7
23.3
24.2
27.4
32.3
27.5
29.1
30.2
Gross national product
133.6
137.7
145.8
153.4
160.7
174.5
189.1
196.2
211.2
223.4
65
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-6 (Continued)
GNP by End Use
1966
1967
Billion 1970 Rubles
1968 1969
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Consumption
133.9
137.8
143.3
150.0
152.1
160.3
169.0
178.8
189.5
198.6
Consumer goods
87.5
89.1
92.0
96.2
95.3
100.5
106.4
113.2
120.8
127.0
Food
68.3
69.3
71.5
75.6
73.7
77.2
80.9
85.4
90.4
94.3
Animal products
37.8
38.1
38.9
42.8
39.1
41.2
44.4
47.2
50.5
53.1
Processed foods
6.4
6.7
7.1
7.4
8.1
8.4
8.5
9.0
9.4
9.9
Basic foods
19.8
19.9
20.4
19.9
20.7
21.3
21.3
21.9
22.6
22.4
Beverages
4.4
4.7
5.1
5.5
5.8
6.2
6.7
7.3
7.9
8.9
Soft goods
14.8
15.3
15.8
15.9
16.4
17.5
19.0
20.7
22.5
24.2
Durables
4.5
4.5
4.8
4.8
5.2
5.8
6.5
7.1
7.8
8.5
Consumer services
46.4
48.6
51.2
53.8
56.8
59.8
62.7
65.6
68.8
71.6
Housing
19.0
20.0
20.9
21.7
22.5
23.2
23.9
24.7
25.5
26.2
Utilities
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Transportation
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.6
3.9
4.3
4.8
5.3
5.8
6.2
Communications
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.8
Repair and personal care
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.9
4.2
Recreation
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.6
Education
10.2
10.8
11.7
12.6
13.4
14.2
14.9
15.5
16.2
16.8
Health
6.8
7.0
7.1
7.4
7.7
8.1
8.4
8.6
9.0
9.4
Investment
56.2
62.5
65.1
60.0
74.0
80.9
81.6
84.7
90.2
96.0
New fixed investment
46.4
51.9
53.5
46.8
59.7
65.7
66.0
68.7
73.3
78.5
Machinery and equipment
10.8
11.8
13.2
14.6
16.6
17.8
18.8
20.2
21.8
22.8
Construction and other
capital outlays
34.1
35.6
37.4
38.8
40.5
43.6
45.4
49.6
52.3
54.9
Net additions to livestock
1.5
4.5
2.9
-6.6
2.6
4.3
1.7
-1.1
-0.8
0.8
Capital repair
9.8
10.6
11.6
13.2
14.4
15.2
15.7
16.0
16.9
17.6
Other government expenditures
42.1
45.0
46.2
41.6
53.2
55.6
61.2
62.8
66.2
61.2
Government administrative
services
7.5
7.4
7.6
7.6
7.9
8.4
8.8
9.4
10.0
10.5
General agricultural pro-
grams
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
Forestry
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.7
5.0
Culture
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Municipal services
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
Civilian police
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
Research and development
5.7
6.3
7.0
7.6
8.3
8.7
9.3
9.7
10.3
11.0
Outlays n.e.c.
29.0
31.2
31.6
26.5
37.0
38.5
43.1
43.7
45.9
39.7
Gross national product
232.3
245.3
254.5
251.7
279.4
296.8
311.9
326.3
346.0
355.9
66
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-6 (Continued)
Billion 1970 Rubles
GNP by End Use
1970
1971
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1972
1973
1974
1975
Consumption
207.8
215.3
220.4
229.5
238.1
247.5
253.0
260.4
268.0
275.5
281.8
Consumer goods
133.1
138.0
140.6
146.9
152.4
158.7
161.6
166.8
171.2
175.8
179.2
Food
97.8
100.1
100.3
104.7
108.0
111.3
111.6
114.2
116.8
119.1
119.4
Animal products
54.7
55.8
56.8
59.7
62.0
64.7
64.6
65.4
66.7
68.4
68.5
Processed foods
10.3
10.5
10.7
11.3
11.7
11.7
12.3
12.7
13.2
13.4
13.6
Basic foods
23.5
24.3
23.4
24.3
24.1
24.2
23.7
25.0
25.4
25.2
24.7
Beverages
9.3
9.5
9.5
9.3
10.2
10.7
11.0
11.0
11.6
12.1
12.6
Soft goods
25.9
27.1
27.9
28.8
29.8
31.5
33.0
34.1
35.0
36.5
38.3
Durables
9.4
10.7
12.4
13.4
14.5
16.0
17.0
18.6
19.4
20.2
21.5
Consumer services
74.6
77.3
79.8
82.5
85.7
88.7
91.5
93.6
96.8
99.7
102.6
Housing
27.0
27.7
28.4
29.2
30.0
30.7
31.5
32.2
32.9
33.6
34.3
Utilities
3.6
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.9
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.2
Transportation
6.7
7.1
7.6
8.1
8.7
9.4
9.9
9.9
10.3
10.7
11.2
Communications
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.6
Repair and personal care
4.6
4.9
5./
5.6
5.9
6.3
6.7
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.6
Recreation
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
3 9
4.0
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
Education
17.2
17.7
18.0
18.4
18.9
19.4
19.9
20.4
21.0
21.4
22.0
Health
9.9
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.9
11.2
11.4
11.7
12.0
12.3
12.4
Investment
108.2
113.4
118.2
129.1
137.6
140.6
151.8
159.5
165.5
168.3
173.3
New fixed investment
89.7
92.8
95.7
103.5
109.9
113.3
121.9
127.3
131.3
133.1
136.6
Machinery and equipment
25.6
27.0
29.2
31.4
346
39.0
42.8
45.2
49.0
51.1
53.5
Construction and other
capital outlays
59.6
63.4
66.6
70.1
73.3
76.4
78.3
79.2
80.8
81.3
83.0
Net additions to livestock
4.4
2.4
-0.1
2.0
2.0
-2.1
0.8
2.8
1.5
0.7
0.1
Capital repair
18.5
20.6
22.5
25.6
27,7
27.2
29.9
32.3
34.2
35.2
36.7
Other government expenditures
67.3
69.4
67.1
76.7
76.6
71.7
76.8
77.1
80.7
74.4
70.3
Government administrative
services
10.7
11.2
11.6
12.0
12.5
12.9
13.3
13.7
14.1
14.5
14.9
General agricultural pro-
grams
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Forestry
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.6
6.8
Culture
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
1.2
2.3
1.2
2.4
1.3
Municipal services
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
Civilian police
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
18.1
41.7
518.2
2.1
18.9
36.4
525.4
Research and development
12.0
12.8
13.8
14.7
15.4
16.1
16.3
16.8
17.4
Outlays n.e.c.
44.5
45.4
41.7
49.9
48.7
42.7
47.1
46.6
49.2
Gross national product
383.3
398.2
405.7
435.2
452.2
459.7
481.6
497.0
514.1
67
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-7
Percent
Average Annual Rates of Growth of GNP by End Use
1971-75
1976-80
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
Consumption
4.9
5.7
3.7
5.3
3.6
2.6
Consumer goods
5.3
6.1
2.8
5.8
3.6
2.5
Food
4.0
5.5
2.5
4.8
2.6
1.4
Animal products
3.6
8.3
1.8
5.8
3.4
1.1
Processed foods
12.3
5.9
5.8
4.1
2.7
2.9
Basic foods
1.9
1.1
1.5
1.9
0.5
0.5
Beverages
12.1
5.0
7.2
8.5
2.8
3.3
Soft goods
10.3
7.4
3.4
8.2
4.0
4.0
Durables
19.4
12.5
5.4
10.2
11.1
6.2
Consumer services
4.2
4.9
5.2
4.5
3.5
3.0
Housing
2.9
5.0
4.0
3.1
2.7
2.2
Utilities
5.9
6.6
9.5
6.7
6.3
4.7
Transportation
12.0
10.8
10.0
9.1
7.1
3.5
Communications
8.1
7.0
7.1
8.9
7.3
5.8
Repair and personal care
2.0
2.9
3.4
9.5
6.7
6.4
Recreation
8.9
4.8
3.7
2.6
1.6
1.1
Education
3.3
3.3
6.8
4.0
2.4
2.6
Health
6.1
5.3
3.6
4.2
2.4
2.1
Investment
12.4
10.5
7.6
6.0
5.4
4.3
New fixed investment
12.4
9.9
7.2
6.4
4.8
3.8
Machinery and equipment
10.8
13.4
10.4
7.6
8.7
6.5
Construction and other capital outlays
11.6
9.7
5.1
6.4
5.1
1.7
Net additions to livestock
44.2
-3.0
24.0
0.4
NA
NA
Capital repair
12.2
13.7
9.1
4.0
8.0
6.1
Other government expenditures
2.4
1.7
5.7
3.9
1.3
-0.4
Government administrative services
-4.5
-2.0
2.2
5.2
3.8
2.9
General agricultural programs
-4.5
9.7
-1.3
4.8
4.8
5.4
Forestry
-2.8
-4.0
1.3
1.7
0.9
0.3
State administration and the administrative
organs of social organizations
-6.0
-4.1
2.2
4.9
3.5
2.5
Culture
3.5
1.6
5.5
8.4
5.0
3.6
Municipal services
2.7
1.4
3.4
5.3
4.5
3.3
Civilian police
-6.0
-4.1
2.2
4.9
3.5
2.5
Research and development
7.5
12.5
9.0
6.7
6.0
3.2
Outlays n.e.c.
4.5
1.1
5.9
2.9
-0.9
-3.1
Gross national product
5.5
5.9
5.0
5.2
3.7
2.7
68
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-8
Percent
Annual Growth Rates of GNP by End Use
1958
1959
1960
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Consumption
0.7
6.0
6.7
5.6
5.6
4.7
6.9
7.0
4.5
5.3
Consumer goods
-0.7
7.5
8.4
5.9
5.7
5.4
8.3
7.9
3.9
5.1
Food
-3.2
7.6
7.3
3.2
5.6
4.6
8.1
7.8
3.1
4.0
Animal products
1.6
2.7
5.5
5.0
3.0
8.4
10.0
13.4
4.5
5.5
Processed foods
32.3
10.8
20.3
-18.0
23.4
9.2
3.4
4.6
4.9
7.5
Basic foods
-16.6
13.6
5.8
5.3
4.2
-1.8
5.9
0.7
0.8
0.1
Beverages
11.9
11.6
12.4
12.5
12.2
4.3
10.7
5.2
-0.3
5.2
Soft goods
13.4
5.6
10.9
16.4
5.4
8.4
6.6
7.6
6.3
8.1
Durables
16.4
14.3
30.6
27.8
9.3
9.4
21.1
9.9
9.2
13.2
Consumer services
3.1
3.6
3.7
4.9
5.4
3.5
4.3
5.4
5.8
5.5
Housing
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.5
4.3
5.3
5.9
5.8
Utilities
6.3
6.6
5.7
5.4
5.6
5.7
5.2
7.5
7.7
6.9
Transportation
11.2
10.0
11.9
11.8
15.4
7.2
14.1
11.6
9.8
11.5
Communications
9.3
9.0
6.4
8.2
7.5
7.7
7.7
5.8
6.4
7.6
Repair and personal care
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.4
-2.5
-0.9
6.6
15.3
-2.8
Recreation
6.0
6.4
4.7
11.6
16.2
5.4
4.6
7.8
2.6
3.8
Education
2.4
3.1
2.6
4.2
4.2
2.9
2.5
3.0
3.1
5.2
Health
2.0
4.7
6.8
8.9
8.2
3.9
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.2
Investment
18.9
0.3
15.5 �
7.5
21.2
13.8
11.8
11.0
11.0
5.3
New fixed investment
20.5
-1.0
16.1
7.0
21.2
12.8
11.2
10.6
9.7
5.3
Machinery and equipment
0.0
9.1
5.6
18.4
22.2
25.5
10.1
13.2
8.1
10.8
Construction and other
capital outlays
14.9
11.9
9.6
11.1
10.8
6.1
9.2
12.8
12.8
7.9
Net additions to livestock
528.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
53.0
32.0
NA
NA
NA
Capital repair
10.2
8.3
11.9
10.1
20.9
19.1
14.7
12.6
17.3
5.4
Other government expenditures
-0.2
9.4
-4.3
0.7
6.8
13.3
-10.8
5.6
3.4
-1.6
Government administrative
services
-0.1
-0.1
-3.8
-7.4
-10.6
-2.0
-4.6
1.0
-2.7
-1.7
General agricultural pro-
grams
8.4
7.5
-8.5
3.7
-27.9
9.0
-4.1
18.7
5.5
21.5
Forestry
1.7
1.7
-10.1
-3.5
-3.4
-2.2
-5.6
-3.3
-6.7
-1.9
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
-10.7
-12.0
-3.8
-5.8
-0.7
-4.3
-5.9
Culture
3.4
3.2
2.5
4.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.5
1.3
1.7
Municipal services
3.9
3.7
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.6
0.9
1.2
0.7
1.8
Civilian police
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
-10.7
-12.0
-3.8
-5.8
-0.7
-4.3
-5.9
Research and development
9.9
8.2
5.0
5.8
9.0
13.2
10.8
13.3
10.9
14.4
Outlays n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Gross national product
3.1
5.9
5.2
4.7
8.6
8.4
3.8
7.6
5.8
4.0
69
93-892 0 - 82 - 6
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-8 (Continued)
Percent
Annual Growth Rates of GNP by End Use
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
Consumption
2.9
4.0
4.7
1.4
5.4
5.5
5.8
6.0
4.8
4.6
Consumer goods
1.8
3.3
4.5
-0.9
5.4
5.9
6.4
6.7
5.2
4.8
Food
1.5
3.1
5.7
-2.4
4.7
4.7
5.6
5.8
4.4
3.6
Animal products
0.8
2.1
10.1
-8.6
5.3
7.7
6.4
6.9
5.3
2.9
Processed foods
4.6
6.4
4.2
9.2
4.5
1.2
5.8
4.2
5.2
4.1
Basic foods
0.9
2.3
-2.4
4.2
2.9
-0.3
2.9
3.5
-1.2
5.0
Beverages
6.2
10.2
6.5
6.0
7.3
7.5
9.2
7.9
13.5
4.4
Soft goods
3.4
3.5
0.5
3.1
6.8
8.8
8.9
8.8
7.5
7.0
Durables
1.7
5.1
-0.4
9.9
11.2
11.8
8.6
10.9
7.9
11.7
Consumer services
4.8
5.3
5.1
5.5
5.3
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.1
4.2
Housing
5.0
4.4
4.0
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
Utilities
9.9
10.2
9.6
9.2
8.5
6.9
6.3
7.1
7.0
6.5
Transportation
9.6
12.9
10.3
8.2
9.3
11.1
9.8
9.6
7.4
7.5
Communications
5.9
6.2
5.9
7.1
10.4
10.5
10.3
7.2
8.7
7.5
Repair and personal care
-6.8
-0.4
3.1
9.9
12.3
10.7
10.5
9.9
7.4
9.0
Recreation
4.0
2.5
0.5
8.0
3.9
0.5
6.1
4.3
1.0
1.5
Education
6.1
8.1
7.0
6.9
5.8
4.9
3.9
4.6
3.8
2.7
Health
3.7
1.7
4.3
3.8
4.7
4.0
3.0
4.4
3.9
6.0
Investment
11.2
4.1
-7.7
23.3
9.3
0.9
3.7
6.5
6.4
12.7
New fixed investment
12.0
3.0
-12.5
27.5
10.2
0.3
4.2
6.6
7.1
14.3
Machinery and equipment
8.7
12.5
10.3
13.7
7.0
5.9
7.3
7.8
4.8
12.4
Construction and other
capital outlays
4.6
4.9
3.7
4.5
7.8
4.1
9.2
5.5
4.9
8.6
Net additions to livestock
205.7
NA
NA
NA
68.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
450.3
Capital repair
7.8
9.3
14.3
8.6
5.8
3.1
1.8
6.2
3.6
5.6
Other government expenditures
6.8
2.8
-9.9
27.8
4.5
10.1
2.6
5.4
-7.6
10.0
Government administrative
services
-0.9
2.1
0.5
4.2
5.5
5.4
7.0
5.6
5.1
2.7
General agricultural pro-
grams
-9.7
-1.4
-1.4
3.7
2.9
5.9
9.4
7.5
1.5
-0.1
Forestry
0.7
2.9
2.3
1.8
-1.3
2.2
1.0
2.4
1.4
1.4
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
-0.5
1.6
-0.8
4.0
7.0
5.9
6.6
4.9
5.4
1.9
Culture
3.2
6.4
5.4
6.8
5.6
4.8
10.0
10.1
8.8
8.3
Municipal services
1.1
3.3
3.9
5.1
3.7
4.8
7.7
4.9
4.9
3.9
Civilian police
-0.5
1.6
-0.8
4.0
7.0
5.9
6.6
4.9
5.4
1.9
Research and development
11.8
11.1
7.9
8.8
5.4
6.6
4.2
6.9
6.9
8.7
Outlays n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Gross national product
5.6
3.8
-1.1
11.0
6.3
5.1
4.6
6.0
2.9
7.7
70
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-8 (Continued)
Annual Growth Rates of GNP by End Use
Percent
1978
1979
1980
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
Consumption
3.6
2.4
4.1
3.7
3.9
2.3
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.3
Consumer goods
3.6
1.9
4.5
3.7
4.2
1.8
3.2
2.6
2.7
1.9
Food
2.4
0.1
4.4
3.2
3.1
0.3
2.3
2.3
2.0
0.2
Animal products
2.1
1.7
5.2
3.9
4.2
-0.1
1.3
1.9
2.6
0.1
Processed foods
2.3
1.5
6.2
2.9
0.7
4.4
3.7
3.5
1.9
1.1
Basic foods
3.6
-4.1
4.0
-0.8
0.3
-1.7
5.3
1.5
-0.8
-1.7
Beverages
1.3
0.1
-1.4
9.2
5.2
2.4
0.5
5.0
4.5
4.3
Soft goods
4.7
3.0
3.2
3.5
5.5
4.7
3.3
2.9
4.2
4.8
6.8
2.9
2.1
4.5
Durables
13.5
15.4
8.4
8.4
9.7
6.6
9.2
4.2
4.1
3.0
Consumer services
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.8
3.6
3.1
2.3
3.4
Housing
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.1
Utilities
6.8
6.6
6.2
6:1
5.8
6.0
3.9
4.8
4.1
Transportation
6.9
7.4
5.8
8.0
7.6
5.9
-0.5
3.9
4.4
3.8
Communications
7.3
7.4
7.2
7.2
7.2
6.4
5.7
5.5
5.6
5.6
Repair and personal care
6.4
7.0
7.2
6.7
6.1
5.9
4.9
7.2
7.0
6.9
Recreation
2.3
1.0
1.9
1.5
1.0
-1.6
0.4
2.6
1.7
2.5
Education
2.9
1.3
2.2
2.9
2.8
2.3
2.4
3.1
2.2
2.8
Health
2.3
2.1
2.4
3.0
2.2
2.1
2.3
3.2
2.5
0.7
Investment
4.8
4.2
9.2
6.6
2.2
8.0
5.1
3.7
1.7
3.0
New fixed investment
3.5
3.1
8.2
6.2
3.2
7.6
4.4
3.1
1.4
2.6
Machinery and equipment
5.3
8.2
7.6
10.0
12.8
9.7
5.7
8.4
4.3
0.7
4.7
2.1
NA
Construction and other
capital outlays
6.4
5.0
5.2
4.6
4.3
2.4
1.2
1.9
Net additions to livestock
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
236.8
NA
NA
Capital repair
11.4
9.1
13.6
8.3
-1.7
9.6
8.0
6.1
2.9
4.2
-5.5
Other government expenditures
3.2
-3.4
14.2
-0.1
-6.3
7.1
0.4
4.6
-7.8
Government administrative
services
4.2
3.8
3.3
4.2
3.4
3.0
2.8
3.3
6.2
1.3
2.6
3.9
0.0
3.0
5.6
0.4
General agricultural pro-
grams
6.8
4.5
4.0
4.1
4.6
9.1
2.3
Forestry
0.4
2.3
-0.5
1.4
0.7
-0.9
0.4
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
3.3
3.5
3.2
4.2
3.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.4
2.8
Culture
6.9
4.2
4.7
5.4
4.0
3.9
5.6
4.1
2.2
Municipal services
5.9
4.9
3.7
4.2
3.7
2.4
3.6
4.3
3.2
Civilian police
3.3
3.5
3.2
4.2
3.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.9
4.3
0.0
Research and development
6.7
7.4
6.8
4.4
4.9
1.4
2.6
3.5
4.3
Outlays n.e.c.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Gross national product
3.9
1.9
7.3
3.9
1.7
4.8
3.2
3.4
0.8
1.4
71
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Table A-9
Per Capita GNP by End Use
1970 Rubles
1959
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
Consumption
444.6
440.5
459.4
479.7
498.4
517.9
532.7
559.7
588.6
604.5
Consumer goods
279.2
272.7
288.4
306.0
319.0
331.7
343.4
365.6
387.6
395.5
Food
238.3
226.9
240.2
252.3
256.4
266.4
273.7
290.7
308.0
311.9
Animal products
118.2
118.2
119.4
123.4
127.5
129.2
137.6
148.8
165.7
170.1
Processed foods
14.9
19.3
21.1
24.8
20.1
24.4
26.1
26.5
27.3
28.1
Basic foods
94.5
77.5
86.7
89.7
93.0
95.3
92.0
95.8
94.7
93.9
Beverages
10.8
11.9
13.1
14.4
15.9
17.6
18.0
19.6
20.2
19.8
Soft goods
35.2
39.3
40.8
44.3
50.8
52.6
56.1
58.7
62.1
64.9
Durables
5.7
6.5
7.3
9.4
11.8
12.7
13.6
16.2
17.5
18.8
Consumer services
165.4
167.7
171.0
173.7
179.5
186.2
189.3
194.0
201.0
209.0
Housing
72.0
72.7
73.5
73.9
74.9
76.1
77.4
79.3
82.1
85.5
Utilities
5.1
5.3
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.7
7.0
7.4
Transportation
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.2
8.1
8.6
9.6
10.5
11.4
Communications
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.0
Repair and personal care
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.8
10.9
10.4
10.1
10.6
12.0
Recreation
7.7
8.0
8.4
8.6
9.5
10.8
11.2
11.5
12.2
12.3
Education
40.9
41.2
41.8
42.0
43.1
44.2
44.7
45.0
45.6
46.2
Health
21.5
21.6
22.3
23.3
24.9
26.6
27.1
28.1
29.1
30.2
Gross national product
741.7
752.2
784.0
807.3
832.4
889.2
946.8
965.7
1,021.1
1,061.2
Population (million)
180.1
183.0
186.0
190.0
193.0
196.2
199.7
203.2
206.8
210.5
72
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-9 (Continued)
1970 Rubles
Per Capita GNP by End Use
1960
1961
1962
1963
1967
1968
1969
1964
1965
1966
Consumption
625.0
631.7
646.1
666.4
666.8
694.1
724.0
757.6
795.3
825.6
Consumer goods
408.5
408.7
415.2
427.3
417.9
435.2
455.6
479.7
506.7
528.0
Food
318.7
317.9
322.4
335.6
323.3
334.4
346.3
362.0
379.3
392.1
Animal products
176.3
174.6
175.3
90.1
171.6
178.5
90.1
200.1
211.8
220.9
Processed foods
29.7
30.5
31.9
32.8
35.3
36.5
36.5
38.2
39.4
41.1
Basic foods
92.3
91.4
92.0
88.4
90.9
92.4
91.1
92.8
95.0
93.0
Beverages
20.5
21.4
23.2
24.3
25.4
26.9
28.7
31.0
33.1
37.2
Soft goods
68.9
70.0
71.2
70.5
71.7
75.6
81.4
87.8
94.6
100.7
Durables
20.9
20.8
21.5
21.1
22.9
25.2
27.9
29.9
32.9
35.1
Consumer services
216.5
223.0
231.0
239.2
249.0
259.0
268.4
277.9
288.6
297.6
Housing
88.8
91.6
94.1
96.3
98.4
100.4
102.5
104.6
106.9
109.0
Utilities
7.8
8.4
9.1
9.9
10.6
11.4
12.0
12.7
13.4
14.2
Transportation
12.5
13.4
14.9
16.2
17.3
18.7
20.5
22.3
24.2
25.7
Communications
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
6.9
7.5
Repair and personal care
11.5
10.5
10.3
10.4
11.3
12.6
13.8
15.0
16.4
17.4
Recreation
12.6
12.8
12.9
12.8
13.7
14.0
13.9
14.6
15.1
15.1
Education
47.7
49.7
52.9
55.8
58.8
61.5
63.7
65.5
67.9
69.8
Health
31.5
32.1
32.1
33.0
33.8
35.0
35.9
36.6
37.8
38.9
Gross national product
1,083.8
1,124.6
1,148.1
1,118.1
1,224.7
1,285.5
1,335.9
1,382.6
1,451.8
1,479.0
Population (million)
214.3
218.1
221.7
225.1
228.1
230.9
233.5
236.0
238.3
240.6
73
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-9 (Continued)
1970 Rubles
Per Capita GNP by End Use
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Consumption
855.7
878.5
890.6
918.7
944.4
972.4
985.4
1,005.4
1,025.5
1,046.0
1,061.5
Consumer goods
548.4
563.0
568.0
588.2
604.5
623.7
629.1
644.0
655.2
667.4
674.9
Food
402.7
408.6
405.1
419.1
428.4
437.3
434.5
440.7
446.9
452.2
449.7
Animal products
225.1
227.7
229.4
239.1
246.1
254.1
251.5
252.6
255.1
259.7
257.9
Processed foods
42.4
42.9
43.2
45.4
46.3
46.2
47.7
49.1
50.3
50.9
51.0
Basic foods
96.8
99.3
94.4
97.2
95.5
94.9
92.5
96.5
97.1
95.6
93.2
Beverages
38.5
38.6
38.3
37.4
40.5
42.1
42.8
42.6
44.4
46.0
47.6
Soft goods
106.7
110.7
112.9
115.4
118.4
123.7
128.4
131.5
134.1
138.7
144.1
Durables
38.9
43.7
50.0
53.7
57.7
62.7
66.3
71.7
74.1
76.6
81.1
Consumer services
307.3
315.5
322.6
330.5
339.9
348.7
356.3
361.5
370.4
378.5
386.5
Housing
111.0
113.0
114.9
116.9
118.9
120.8
122.6
124.3
126.0
127.7
129.3
Utilities
15.0
15.9
16.8
17.6
18.6
19.4
20.4
21.1
21.9
22.6
23.4
Transportation
27.4
29.0
30.9
32.4
34.6
36.9
38.7
38.2
39.4
40.8
42.0
Communications
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.6
10.2
10.8
11.4
11.9
12.5
13.1
13.7
Repair and personal care
18.8
19.8
21.0
22.3
23.6
24.8
26.0
27.1
28.8
30.5
32.4
Recreation
15.2
15.4
15.4
15.6
15.7
15.7
15.3
15.2
15.5
15.6
15.9
Education
71.0
72.4
72.6
73.6
75.0
76.4
77.4
78.6
80.3
81.4
83.0
Health
40.9
41.5
41.9
42.5
43.4
43.9
44.4
45.1
46.1
46.9
46.8
Gross national product
1,578.5
1,624.6
1,639.3
1,742.2
1,793.7
1,806.5
1,875.4
1,919.1
1,967.5
1,967.3
1,978.9
Population (million)
242.8
245.1
247.5
249.8
252.1
254.5
256.8
259.0
261.3
263.4
265.5
74
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-10
Percent
Average Annual Rates of Growth of Per Capita GNP by End Use
1966-70
1971-75
1976-80
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
Consumption
3.1
3.8
2.1
4.3
2.6
1.8
Consumer goods
3.5
4.3
1.3
4.7
2.6
1.6
Food
2.3
3.7
1.0
3.8
1.7
0.6
Animal products
1.8
6.4
0.2
4.7
2.5
0.3
Processed foods
10.4
4.0
4.2
3.0
1.7
2.0
Basic foods
0.2
-0.6
0.0
0.9
-0.4
-0.4
Beverages
10.2
3.1
5.6
7.4
1.8
2.5
Soft goods
8.4
5.5
1.9
7.1
3.0
3.1
Durables
17.4
10.5
3.9
9.1
10.0
5.3
Consumer services
2.4
3.1
3.6
3.5
2.6
2.1
Housing
1.1
3.1
2.5
2.0
1.7
1.4
Utilities
4.1
4.7
7.8
5.7
5.3
3.8
Transportation
10.1
8.9
8.4
8.0
6.1
2.6
Communications
6.2
5.2
5.5
7.8
6.3
4.9
Repair and personal care
0.3
1.1
1.8
8.4
5.7
5.5
Recreation
7.1
3.0
2.2
1.6
0.6
0.3
Education
1.5
1.5
5.2
2.9
1.5
1.7
Health
4.3
3.5
2.1
3.2
1.4
1.3
Gross national product
3.7
4.0
3.5
4.2
2.7
1.8
Population
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.0
0.9
0.8
75
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-11
Percentage Shares of GNP by End Use
Percent
1959
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
Consumption
59.9
58.6
58.6
59.4
59.9
58.2
56.3
58.0
57.6
57.0
Consumer goods
37.6
36.3
36.8
37.9
38.3
37.3
36.3
37.9
38.0
37.3
Food
32.1
30.2
30.6
31.3
30.8
30.0
28.9
30.1
30.2
29.4
Animal products
15.9
15.7
15.2
15.3
15.3
14.5
14.5
15.4
16.2
16.0
Processed foods
2.0
2.6
2.7
3.1
2.4
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
Basic foods
12.7
10.3
11.1
11.1
11.2
10.7
9.7
9.9
9.3
8.8
Beverages
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
Soft goods
4.7
5.2
5.2
5.5
6.1
5.9
5.9
6.1
6.1
6.1
Durables
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.8
Consumer services
22.3
22.3
21.8
21.5
21.6
20.9
20.0
20.1
19.7
19.7
Housing
9.7
9.7
9.4
9.2
9.0
8.6
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.1
Utilities
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Transportation
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
Communications
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Repair and personal care
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.1
Recreation
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Education
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.4
Health
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
Investment
14.2
16.4
15.5
17.1
17.5
19.5
20.5
22.1
22.8
23.9
New fixed investment
12.0
14.1
13.2
14.5
14.9
16.6
17.2
18.5
19.0
19.7
Machinery and equipment
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.4
Construction and other
capital outlays
9.2
10.3
10.9
11.3
12.0
12.3
12.0
12.6
13.3
14.1
Net additions to livestock
0.2
1.3
-0.3
0.6
-0.1
1.0
1.4
1.8
1.5
1.2
Capital repair
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.8
4.2
Other government expenditures
25.8
25.0
25.9
23.5
22.6
22.2
23.2
20.0
19.6
19.2
Government administrative
services
7.8
7.6
7.1
6.5
5.8
4.7
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.4
General agricultural pro-
grams
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Forestry
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
4.5
4.3
4.0
3.7
3.1
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
Culture
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
Municipal services
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Civilian police
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
Research and development
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
Outlays n.e.c.
16.4
15.7
16.9
15.2
15.0
15.7
17.1
14.0
13.8
13.5
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
76
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-11 (Continued)
Percentage Shares of GNP by End Use
Percent
1966
1967
1968
1969
55.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Consumption
57.7
56.2
56.3
59.6
54.4
54.0
54.2
54.8
54.8
Consumer goods
37.7
36.3
36.2
38.2
34.1
33.9
34.1
34.7
34.9
35.7
Food
29.4
28.3
28.1
30.0
26.4
26.0
25.9
26.2
26.1
26.5
14.9
Animal products
16.3
15.5
15.3
17.0
14.0
13.9
14.2
14.5
14.6
Processed foods
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.8
Basic foods
8.5
8.1
8.0
7.9
7.4
7.2
6.8
6.7
6.5
6.3
Beverages
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.5
Soft goods
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.3
5.9
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.8
Durables
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Consumer services
20.0
19.8
20.1
21.4
20.3
20.1
20.1
20.1
19.9
20.1
Housing
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.6
8.0
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.4
1.0
Utilities
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Transportation
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
Communications
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
Repair and personal care
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
Recreation
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.0
Education
4.4
4.4
4.6
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
Health
2.9
2.9
2.8
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
Investment
24.2
25.5
25.6
23.9
26.5
27.3
26.2
26.0
26.1
27.0
New fixed investment
20.0
21.2
21.0
18.6
21.4
22.1
21.1
21.1
21.2
22.1
Machinery and equipment
4.7
4.8
5.2
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.2
6.3
6.4
Construction and other
capital outlays
14.7
14.5
14.7
15.4
14.5
14.7
14.6
15.2
15.1
15.4
Net additions to livestock
0.6
1.8
1.1
-2.6
0.9
1.5
0.6
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
Capital repair
4.2
4.3
4.5
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
17.2
Other government expenditures
18.1
18.3
18.2
16.5
19.0
18.7
19.6
19.2
19.1
Government administrative
services
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
General agricultural pro-
grams
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
1.4
Forestry
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
Culture
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
Municipal services
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Civilian police
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Research and development
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
Outlays n.e.c.
12.5
12.7
12.4
10.5
13.3
13.0
13.8
13.4
13.3
11.1
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
77
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-11 (Continued)
Percentage Shares of GNP by End Use
Percent
1971
1972
1978 1979 1980
1970
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
Consumption
54.2
54.1
54.3
52.7
52.6
53.8
52.5
52.4
52.1 53.2 53.6
Consumer goods
34.7
34.7
34.7
33.8
33.7
34.5
33.5
33.6
33.3 33.9 34.1
Food
25.5
25.1
24.7
24.1
23.9
24.2
23.2
23.0
22.7 23.0 22.7
Animal products
14.3
14.0
14.0
13.7
13.7
14.1
13.4
13.2
13.0 13.2 13.0
Processed foods
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6 2.6 2.6
Basic foods
6.1
6.1
5.8
5.6
5.3
5.3
4.9
5.0
4.9 4.9 4.7
Beverages
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.3 2.3 2.4
Soft goods
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.6
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.8 7.0 7.3
Durables
2.5
2.7
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.8 3.9 4.1
Consumer services
19.5
19.4
19.7
19.0
18.9
19.3
19.0
18.8
18.8 19.2 19.5
Housing
7.0
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.6
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.4 6.5 6.5
Utilities
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1 1.1 1.2
Transportation
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0 2.1 2.1
Communications
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6 0.7 0.7
Repair and personal care
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5 1.6 1.6
Recreation
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8 0.8 0.8
Education
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1 4.1 4.2
Health
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3 2.4 2.4
Investment
28.2
28.5
29.1
29.7
30.4
30.6
31.5
32.1
32.2 32.5 33.0
New fixed investment
23.4
23.3
23.6
23.8
24.3
24.6
25.3
25.6
25.5 25.7 26.0
Machinery and equipment
6.7
6.8
7.2
7.2
7.6
8.5
8.9
9.1
9.5 9.9 10.2
Construction and other
capital outlays
15.6
15.9
16.4
16.1
16.2
16.6
16.3
15.9
15.7 15.7 15.8
Net additions to livestock
1.2
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.6
0.3 0.1 0.0
Capital repair
4.8
5.2
5.6
5.9
6.1
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.7 6.8 7.0
Other government expenditures
17.6
17.4
16.5
17.6
16.9
15.6
15.9
15.5
15.7 14.3 13.4
Government administrative
services
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8 2.8 2.8
General agricultural pro-
grams
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3 0.3 0.3
Forestry
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 0.1 0.1
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3 1.3 1.3
Culture
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4 0.4 0.5
Municipal services
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2 0.2 0.2
Civilian police
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4 0.4 0.4
Research and development
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4 3.5 3.6
Outlays n.e.c.
11.6
11.4
10.3
11.5
10.8
9.3
9.8
9.4
9.6 8.1 6.9
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0
78
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-12
Indexes of GNP by End Use
1956
1957
1958
1970=100
1959
61.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
Consumption
38.5
38.8
41.1
43.9
46.3
48.9
51.2
54.7
58.6
Consumer goods
37.8
37.5
40.3
43.7
46.2
48.9
51.5
55.8
60.2
62.5
Food
43.9
42.5
45.7
49.0
50.6
53.5
55.9
60.4
65.1
67.1
65.5
Animal products
38.9
39.6
40.6
42.9
45.0
46.4
50.3
55.3
62.7
Processed foods
26.0
34.4
38.2
45.9
37.7
46.5
50.7
52.4
54.8
57.5
Basic foods
72.4
60.4
68.6
72.6
76.4
79.6
78.2
82.8
83.4
84.1
Beverages
20.8
23.3
26.0
29.2
32.9
36.9
38.5
42.6
44.8
44.7
Soft goods
24.5
27.7
29.3
32.5
37.8
39.8
43.2
46.1
49.6
52.7
Durables
10.8
12.6
14.4
18.8
24.1
26.3
28.8
34.8
38.3
41.8
Consumer services
39.9
41.1
42.6
44.2
46.4
48.9
50.7
52.8
55.7
59.0
66.7
Housing
48.1
49.4
50.7
52.1
53.6
55.4
57.3
59.8
63.0
Utilities
25.1
26.6
28.4
30.0
31.6
33.4
35.3
37.1
39.9
42.9
Transportation
13.6
15.1
16.6
18.6
20.8
24.0
25.7
29.4
32.8
36.0
Communications
22.4
24.5
26.7
28.4
30.8
33.1
35.6
38.4
40.6
43.2
Repair and personal care
42.1
42.9
43.7
44.6
45.6
46.6
45.4
45.0
48.0
55.3
Recreation
37.6
39.9
42.4
44.4
49.6
57.6
60.8
63.6
68.5
70.3
Education
42.8
43.8
45.1
46.3
48.3
50.3
51.8
53.1
54.7
56.4
Health
39.0
39.8
41.7
44.5
48.5
52.5
54.5
57.4
60.6
64.1
Investment
17.6
20.9
20.9
24.2
26.0
31.5
35.8
40.0
44.4
49.3
New fixed investment
17.9
21.6
21.4
24.9
26.6
32.2
36.4
40.5
44.8
49.1
Machinery and equipment
13.5
13.5
14.8
15.6
18.4
22.5
28.3
31.1
35.2
38.1
Construction and other
capital outlays
20.7
23.8
26.6
29.2
32.4
35.9
38.1
41.6
47.0
53.0
60.9
Net additions to livestock
6.2
39.1
-10.4
20.3
-4.4
38.8
59.4
78.5
69.9
Capital repair
15.7
17.3
18.7
20.9
23.0
27.9
33.2
38.0
42.9
50.3
Other government expenditures
51.3
51.2
56.0
53.6
54.0
57.6
65.3
58.2
61.5
63.6
Government administrative
services
97.0
97.0
96.8
93.2
86.3
77.1
75.5
72.1
72.8
65.9
70.8
69.5
87.9
74.9
General agricultural pro-
grams
66.7
72.3
77.7
71.1
73.7
53.1
57.9
55.5
Forestry
121.8
123.9
126.0
113.3
109.3
105.6
103.2
97.4
94.2
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
118.3
116.6
114.8
110.7
98.9
87.0
83.7
78.8
78.2
Culture
39.9
41.2
42.5
43.6
45.5
47.3
47.8
48.5
49.7
50.4
Municipal services
53.4
55.4
57.5
58.7
59.8
60.9
62.5
63.1
63.9
64.3
Civilian police
118.3
116.6
114.8
110.7
98.9
87.0
83.7
78.8
78.2
74.9
Research and development
18.2
20.0
21.6
22.7
24.0
26.2
29.6
32.8
37.2
41.3
Outlays n.e.c.
49.2
48.6
55.5
52.4
54.3
61.4
72.5
61.7
65.3
67.9
Gross national product
34.9
35.9
38.0
40.0
41.9
45.5
49.3
51.2
55.1
58.3
79
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-12 (Continued)
Indexes of GNP by End Use
1970=100
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Consumption
64.5
66.3
68.9
72.2
73.2
77.1
81.4
86.1
91.2
95.6
, Consumer goods
65.7
66.9
69.1
72.2
71.6
75.5
79.9
85.0
90.7
95.4
Food
69.9
70.9
73.1
77.3
75.4
79.0
82.7
87.4
92.4
96.5
Animal products
69.1
69.7
71.1
78.3
71.6
75.4
81.2
86.4
92.3
97.2
Processed foods
61.8
64.7
68.9
71.7
78.4
81.9
82.8
87.6
91.3
96.1
Basic foods
84.1
84.9
86.8
84.7
88.3
90.8
90.5
93.2
96.4
95.2
Beverages
47.0
49.9
55.0
58.6
62.1
66.6
71.6
78.2
84.4
95.8
Soft goods
57.0
58.9
60.9
61.2
63.1
67.4
73.4
79.9
86.9
93.5
Durables
47.3
48.1
50.5
50.4
55.4
61.6
68.9
74.8
83.0
89.5
Consumer services
62.2
65.2
68.6
72.2
76.1
80.1
84.0
87.9
92.2
96.0
Housing
70.6
74.1
77.4
80.5
83.3
86.0
88.8
91.6
94.5
97.3
Utilities
45.9
50.4
55.5
60.9
66.5
72.1
77.1
81.9
87.7
93.9
Transportation
40.1
44.0
49.7
54.8
59.3
64.8
72.0
79.1
86.6
93.0
Communications
46.5
49.2
52.3
55.3
59.3
65.4
72.3
79.8
85.5
93.0
Repair and personal care
53.8
50.1
49.9
51.5
56.5
63.5
70.3
77.7
85.4
91.7
Recreation
73.0
75.9
77.8
78.2
84.4
87.7
88.2
93.6
97.6
98.6
Education
59.3
62.9
68.0
72.8
77.8
82.3
86.3
89.6
93.8
97.4
Health
68.0
70.5
71.7
74.8
77.6
81.3
84.5
87.0
90.8
94.3
Investment
51.9
57.8
60.1
55.5
68.4
74.8
75.5
78.3
83.4
88.7
New fixed investment
51.7
57.9
59.7
52.2
66.6
73.3
73.6
76.7
81.7
87.5
Machinery and equipment
42.2
45.9
51.6
57.0
64.8
69.3
73.4
78.7
84.8
88.9
Construction and other
capital outlays
57.2
59.8
62.7
65.0
67.9
73.2
76.2
83.3
87.8
92.1
Net additions to livestock
33.4
102.2
65.1
-148.3
58.2
98.0
38.9
-23.9
-17.8
18.2
Capital repair
53.0
57.1
62.4
71.4
77.5
82.0
84.6
86.1
91.4
94.7
Other government expenditures
62.6
66.8
68.7
61.9
79.1
82.6
91.0
93.3
98.4
90.9
Government administrative
services
69.6
68.9
70.3
70.7
73.7
77.7
81.9
87.7
92.6
97.4
General agricultural pro-
grams
84.5
76.4
75.3
74.2
77.0
79.2
83.9
91.7
98.6
100.1
Forestry
86.2
86.9
89.4
91.5
93.1
91.9
94.0
94.9
97.2
98.6
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
70.5
70.1
71.2
70.7
73.5
78.6
83.3
88.8
93.1
98.1
Culture
51.3
52.9
56.3
59.3
63.4
66.9
70.1
77.1
84.9
92.4
Municipal services
65.4
66.2
68.3
71.0
74.6
77.4
81.1
87.4
91.7
96.2
Civilian police
70.5
70.1
71.2
70.7
73.5
78.6
83.3
88.8
93.1
98.1
Research and development
47.2
52.7
58.6
63.2
68.7
72.4
77.3
80.5
86.0
92.0
Outlays n.e.c.
65.1
70.1
71.0
59.4
83.2
86.6
96.9
98.2
103.1
89.1
Gross national product
60.6
64.0
66.4
65.7
72.9
77.4
81.4
85.1
90.3
92.9
80
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-12 (Continued)
Indexes of GNP by End Use
1970=100
1978
1979
1980
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
Consumption
100.0
103.6
106.1
110.5
114.6
119.1
121.8
125.3
129.0
132.6
135.6
Consumer goods
100.0
103.6
105.6
110.4
114.5
119.2
121.3
125.3
128.6
132.0
134.6
Food
100.0
102.4
102.5
107.1
110.4
113.8
114.1
116.7
119.4
121.8
122.1
Animal products
100.0
102.1
103.9
109.3
11:1.5
118.3
118.2
119.7
122.0
125.2
125.3
Processed foods
100.0
102.3
103.9
110.3
1115
114.2
119.2
123.6
127.9
130.4
131.8
Basic foods
100.0
103.6
99.4
103.3
102.5
102.8
101.0
106.4
108.0
107.1
105.3
Beverages
100.0
101.3
101.4
100.0
109.2
114.8
117.6
118.2
124.1
129.7
135.3
Soft goods
100.0
104.7
107.8
111.2
115.2
121.5
127.2
131.4
135.2
140.9
147.7
Durables
100.0
113.5
131.0
142.1
154.0
168.9
180.1
196.7
205.0
213.5
227.9
Consumer services
100.0
103.6
107.0
110.6
114.8
118.9
122.6
125.5
129.7
133.6
137.5
127.4
Housing
100.0
102.7
105.5
108.4
111.2
114.1
116.8
119.5
122.2
124.8
Utilities
100.0
106.8
113.8
120.8
128.2
135.7
143.8
149.5
156.6
163.0
170.4
Transportation
100.0
106.9
114.8
121.5
131.2
141.2
149.5
148.8
154.6
161.4
167.6
Communications
100.0
107.3
115.2
123.5
132.4
142.0
151.1
159.6
168.4
177.9
187.9
188.0
Repair and personal care
100.0
106.4
113.8
122.0
130.1
138.1
146.3
153.5
164.5
175.9
Recreation
100.0
102.3
103.4
105.4
107.0
108.0
106.3
106.7
109.5
111.4
114.3
Education
100.0
102.9
104.2
106.5
109.7
112.7
115.3
118.0
121.7
124.3
127.8
Health
100.0
102.3
104.5
107.0
110.2
112.6
114.9
117.5
121.3
124.3
125.2
Investment
100.0
104.8
109.2
119.3
127.1
129.9
140.2
147.4
152.9
155.5
160.2
152.4
New fixed investment
100.0
103.5
106.7
115.4
122.5
126.4
135.9
141.9
146.4
148.5
Machinery and equipment 100.0
105.3
113.9
122.5
134.8
152.0
166.8
176.2
191.0
199.2
208.6
Construction and other
capital outlays
100.0
106.4
111.7
117.5
122.9
128.3
131.3
132.9
135.5
136.4
139.3
2.6
197.8
Net additions to livestock
100.0
53.6
-2.3
45.2
45.2
-47.7
19.1
64.2
34.6
16.9
Capital repair
100.0
111.4
121.5
138.0
149.5
147.0
161.1
174.0
184.6
189.9
Other government expenditures 100.0
103.2
99.7
113.9
113.8
106.6
114.1
114.6
119.9
110.5
104.4
Government administrative
services
100.0
104.2
108.1
111.7
116.4
120.4
124.0
127.4
131.6
135.0
139.1
General agricultural pro-
grams
100.0
106.8
111.6
116.1
120.8
126.5
138.0
141.1
149.9
155.7
164.4
Forestry
100.0
100.4
102.7
102.2
103.7
104.4
103.5
103.9
105.3
105.3
105.8
134.3
152.9
146.0
State administration and
the administrative or-
gans of social organiza-
tions
100.0
103.3
107.0
110.4
115.0
118.8
121.3
124.0
127.2
130.6
Culture
100.0
106.9
111.5
116.7
123.0
127.9
132.8
140.3
146.1
149.2
Municipal services
100.0
105.9
111.1
115.2
120.0
124.4
127.4
132.0
137.6
141.9
Civilian police
100.0
103.3
107.0
110.4
115.0
118.8
121.3
124.0
127.2
130.6
134.3
Research and development
100.0
106.7
114.6
122.4
127.8
134.1
136.1
139.6
144.5
150.7
157.2
Outlays n.e.c.
100.0
102.0
93.7
112.2
109.3
95.8
105.9
104.8
110.4
93.7
81.8
Gross national product
100.0
103.9
105.9
113.6
118.0
120.0
125.7
129.7
134.1
135.2
137.1
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Appendix B
Sector-of-Origin Indexes
Industry
The derivation of the production index for each
branch of industry, except for the other industry
branch, is described by Ray Converse in JEC, Indus-
try. The 1970 established-price weights for the
branches of industry are derived in appendix D, table
D-7, and the factor-cost weights are derived in appen-
dix E. The index for the other industry branch is
assumed to be equal to the index for total industry
and is computed as a weighted average of the other 10
branches. The indexes for total industry and for all
branches of industry are reproduced in appendix A,
table A-5.
Construction
Scope and Coverage
The construction sector in Soviet statistics includes
new construction and capital repair of buildings and
structures, oil and gas well drilling, design work
connected with the construction and capital repair of
buildings and structures, and geological survey work
(USSR Gosplan, Metodicheskiye ukazaniye k sos-
tavleniyu gosudarstvennogo plana razvitiya narod-
nogo khozyaystvo SSSR, Moscow, Ekonomika, 1969,
pp. 746-748, hereafter referred to as Ukazaniya). All
construction activity is included regardless of whether
it is performed by contract organizations or on force
account. In recent years, about 90 percent of con-
struction-installation work has been performed by
contract organizations. In contrast to Western ac-
counting practice, new construction and capital repair
in the USSR include the cost of installing machinery
and equipment.
The United States uses the double deflation method
to compute a value-added index in constant prices.
Gross output in current prices is deflated using price
indexes for several types of construction. Then materi-
al inputs in current prices are deflated by a price
83
index constructed as a weighted average of price
indexes for the various materials used by the construc-
tion sector. Subtracting the deflated material pur-
chases from the deflated gross output produces value
added in constant prices.
Price changes are notoriously difficult to measure in
construction because there are few standard products
for which comparable prices exist. The Soviet Union
probably collects more data on construction costs than
most nations, but has not published a price index,
much less one backed by sufficient data for independ-
ent testing. The lack of standard products makes it
impossible to construct a physical output index. Faced
with the same lack of Soviet data, Powell constructed
a material-input index, consisting of a price-weighted
average of the production of 28 types of construction
materials, to measure real changes in the gross output
of construction (Raymond P. Powell, "An Index of
Soviet Construction, 1927/28 to 1955," The Review
of Economics and Statistics 41, May 1959, pp. 170-
177). The same basic approach is used here. Input-
output data for 1972 are used to derive weights for the
purchase of 54 types of materials by the construction
sector. Similar data for 1959 and 1966 are used to
estimate changes in the share of the production of
each material purchased by construction over time.
The share for each year is combined with the corre-
sponding production index to form an index of pur-
chases of that type of material by construction. The
construction output index is a weighted average of the
54 purchase indexes.
This approach assumes that the ratio of material
inputs to gross output is constant. The validity of this
approach depends on the manner in which productivi-
ty gains have been introduced. Productivity growth
can influence the output of a sector through higher
quality material inputs or through the better use of
labor and capital resources. If the use of improved
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materials permits a smaller value of materials to be
used per unit of construction, then the ratio of
material inputs to gross output would decline. On the
other hand, if the use of improved materials permits
the substitution of materials for labor and capital,
then the ratio of material inputs to gross output would
rise. The Soviet Union has published values for the
gross output and net material product (NMP) of the
construction sector for 1964-78 in current prices. The
ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to
gross output declined slowly in this period (from 57
percent in 1964 to 54 percent in 1978), suggesting that
the material-input approach is reasonably valid. This
conclusion depends on the relative price stability
between gross output and material inputs. The avail-
able evidence does not suggest a divergence in the
prices of construction output and its inputs. In addi-
tion, US data show a stable ratio of material inputs to
gross output in constant prices, ranging between 52
percent and 55 percent, since 1950. International
comparisons are hazardous, but this stability also
lends support to the use of a material-input index.
Weights
The weights used to combine the purchase indexes are
derived from the 1972 Soviet input-output table. The
construction column in that table enumerates the
ruble value of purchases from each of 75 input-output
sectors. The 1972 input-output table is available with
88 sectors. In order to make comparisons with the
1959 and 1966 input-output tables, however, tables in
comparable 75-sector formats were used. The con-
struction sector did not purchase any materials from
11 of these sectors in 1972. Production indexes are not
available for an additional 10 sectors. The purchases
by the construction sector from the remaining 54
sectors were summed and converted into percentage
weights (table B-1). The construction sector purchased
over half of its inputs from just two sectors�construc-
tion materials and transportation and communica-
tions. A desirable development would be to disaggre-
gate the construction materials sector. The data
needed to compute the purchase indexes for the
separate construction materials sectors for other
years, however, are not available.
Description of the Index
The construction index is a weighted average of 54
purchase indexes, each showing the purchases by
construction from the input-output sectors listed in
table B-1. Each purchase index is computed in a two-
step procedure. First, the shares of the gross output of
each of the 54 sectors sold to construction were
computed from the 1959, 1966, and 1972 Soviet
input-output tables. It is assumed that the rate of
change in these shares between 1959 and 1966 and
between 1966 and 1972 was linear. It is assumed also
that there was no change in the shares before 1959 or
after 1972. The resulting time series shows the share
of each sector's gross output sold to construction.
Second, the shares so derived were multiplied by the
production index for that sector to arrive at an index
of purchases by construction from each sector. Each
purchase index was rebased so that 1972 = 100. A
sample computation of a purchase index is shown in
table B-2.
To form the construction index, the 54 purchase
indexes are multiplied by their corresponding weights
from table B-1, and the products are added. The
resulting index is shown in column 2 of table B-3.
All but four of the 54 production indexes are for
industrial sectors and were obtained from the index of
industrial production described by Ray Converse in
JEC, Industry. The indexes for the crops and animal
husbandry sectors were derived from the data con-
tained in the index of agricultural output as described
by Margaret Hughes and Barbara Severin in JEC,
Agriculture. The index for the transportation and
communications sector is the index for freight trans-
portation derived below in this appendix. The index
for the trade sector is the index for wholesale trade
derived below in this appendix.
Although the material-input method is theoretically
less desirable than either the gross output or double
deflation method, it appears to produce reasonable
results and to be the best available method given the
data constraints. The material-input index can be
84
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Table B-1
1972 Construction Input Weights
Input-Output Sector
Purchases by Con- Share of
struction (thousand Purchases
rubles, producers' (percent)
prices)
Input-Output Sector
Purchases by Con- Share of
struct ion (thousand Purchases
rubles, producers' (percent)
prices)
Ferrous metals
3,103,673 8.6
Basic chemical products
129,655 0.4
Nonferrous metals 205,220 0.6
Aniline dye products
31,056 0.1
Refractory materials 165,739 0.5
Coal 105,696 0.3
Oil extraction
13,358 a
Oil refining
Gas
Synthetic resins and
plastics
41,847 0.1
Synthetic fibers
2,980
566,432 1.6 Organic-synthetic 25,594 0.1
a products
16,550
Peat 6,897
Oil shales 7,591
a
a
Electric power 504,205 1.4
Energy and power m&e b 35,779 0.1
Electrotechnical m&e 494,980 1.4
Machine tools
9,753
Forge-pressing m&e 2,458
a
Precision instruments
52,269 0.1
Mining and metallurgical 240,970 0.7
m&e
Pumps and chemical
equipment
35,591 0.1
Logging and paper m&e
11,817 a
Hoisting and transport
equipment
67,871 0.2
Paint and lacquer
610,260 1.7
Rubber products
313,506 0.9
Other chemical products
132,410 0.4
Logging
437,967 1.2
Sawmill and lumber
products
3,206,976 8.9
Furniture
Paper and pulp
Wood chemistry
26,348
79,506
4,031
Construction materials
Glass
Textiles
Sewn goods
Other light industry
12,621,215
379,175
187,357
375,049
69,220
Meat products 11,018
0.1
0.2
34.9
1.0
0.5
1.0
0.2
Construction m&e
198,056 0.5
Transport m&e 7,942
a
Dairy products 7,025
Flour and bread 947
Automobiles 329,658 0.9
Agricultural m&e 148,592 0.4
Radioelectronics and other
machine building
412,753 1.1
Sanitary engineering 1,131,383
products
Other foods
Crops
86,257
34,820
Animal husbandry
11,718
Transportation and
3.1 communications
Other metalwares
540,714 1.5
Metal structures
1,713,501 4.7
Repair of m&e
914,314 2.5
5,841,370
0.2
0.1
16.1
Trade and distribution
465,452
1.3
Total
36,176,521 100.0
a = Less than 0.05 percent.
b m&e = machinery and equipment.
Source: Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinskiy, and Vladimir G.
Treml, Input-Output Structure of the Soviet Economy: 1972, US
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington,
D.C., forthcoming.
85
83-892 0 - 82 -
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Table B-2
Derivation of the Index of Purchases of Construction
Materials by the Construction Sector
Year
Year
(1)
Percent Gross
Output of Con-
struction Mate-
rials Sold to
Construction
(2)
Construction Ma-
terials Production
(Index:
1972=100)
(3)
Purchases of
Construction Ma-
terials (Index:
1972=100)
(1)
Percent Gross
Output of Con-
struction Mate-
rials Sold to
Construction
(2)
Construction Ma-
terials Production
(Index:
1972=100)
(3)
Purchases of
Construction Ma-
terials (Index:
1972=100)
1950
74.55
10.1
9.8
1966
75.17
71.4
70.0
1951
74.55
12.2
11.9
1967
75.43
77.1
75.8
1952
74.55
14.3
13.9
1968
75.69
80.2
79.1
1953
74.55
16.5
16.0
1969
75.95
81.9
81.0
1954
74.55
19.3
18.7
1970
76.21
88.9
88.3
1955
74.55
23.2
22.5
1971
76.47
95.3
94.9
1956
74.55
26.0
25.2
1972
76.73
100.0
100.0
1957
74.55
30.6
29.7
1973
76.73
106.0
106.0
1958
74.55
37.1
36.1
1974
76.73
110.9
110.9
1959
74.55
43.3
42.0
1975
76.73
115.3
115.3
1960
74.63
49.1
47.8
1976
76.73
119.5
119.5
1961
74.72
53.5
52.1
1977
76.73
121.2
121.2
1962
74.81
56.4
55.0
1978
76.73
123.9
123.9
1963
74.90
58.3
57.0
1979
76.73
123.8
123.8
1964
74.99
61.0
59.6
1980
76.73
125.1
125.1
1965
75.08
66.0
64.6
Sources: Column 1: 1959, 1966, and 1972 are calculated from the
respective input-output tables. These tables are published in Dimitri
M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinskiy, and Vladimir G. Treml, Conversion
of Soviet Input-Output Tables to Producers' Prices: The 1959
Reconstructed Table, Foreign Economic Report 6, US Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington D.C.,
1975; Vladimir G. Treml, Dimitri M. Gallik, and Barry L.
Kostinskiy, "1966 Ex-Post Input-Output Tables for the USSR: A
Survey," in Vladimir G. Treml, ed., Studies in Soviet Input-Output
Analysis, Praeger Publishers, New York, 1977, pp. 1-67; and
Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinskiy, and Vladimir G. Treml,
checked for reasonableness by comparing the gross
output of the construction sector in current prices, as
published in the Narkhoz, with our index in 1970
prices and computing the implicit annual price
changes and implicit price index (table B-3). On the
whole, the implicit price index is reasonable. It shows
price declines in the early 1950s, especially in 1955,
which conform with Soviet claims of price reductions.
After 1955 there is a pattern of moderate price
increases with two large increases in 1967 and 1969.
The 1967 industrial price reform raised the prices of
Input-Output Structure of the Soviet Economy: 1972, US Depart-
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C.,
forthcoming. The values for 1950-58 are assumed to be equal to the
1959 value, and the values for 1973-80 are assumed to be equal to
the 1972 value. The 1960-65 and 1967-71 values are linearly
interpolated.
Column 2: This was derived from the index of industrial production
described by Ray Converse in JEC, Industry.
Column 3: This is column 1 times column 2, rebased so that
1972=100.
construction materials, and construction prices were
explicitly increased in 1969. Since 1970 remarkably
little price change is indicated.
A second test compares an implicit price index de-
rived from Soviet data with the price index derived in
table B-3. First, a series showing expenditures on new
construction and other capital outlays in current
prices was derived by subtracting current-price esti-
mates of capital repair of buildings and structures
86
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Table B-3
Table B-4
Derivation of the Implicit Construction Price Index
Year
(1)
Gross
Output of
Construc-
tion
(billion
rubles)
(2)
Material-
Input
Construc-
tion
Index
(1970 = 100)
(3)
Implicit
Annual
Price
Change
(percent)
(4)
Implicit
Price
Index
(1970=100)
1950
12.1
20.4
NA
88.1
1951
13.6
23.3
-1.9
86.4
1952
15.3
25.7
2.2
88.3
1953
16.1
28.3
-4.8
84.1
1954
18.2
31.5
1.2
85.2
1955
18.4
35.7
-10.4
76.3
1956
20.3
38.9
1.4
77.4
1957
22.6
43.1
0.3
77.7
1958
25.7
48.7
0.4
78.0
1959
29.2
54.7
1.1
78.9
1960
31.9
58.9
1.6
80.1
1961
32.7
62.0
-2.6
78.1
1962
33.6
64.9
-1.9
76.6
1963
34.7
67.4
-0.6
76.1
1964
36.6
70.9
0.4
76.4
1965
40.3
75.3
3.6
79.2
1966
43.0
78.8
2.0
80.7
1967
50.0
84.8
8.0
87.2
1968
53.0
89.3
0.7
87.8
1969
60.0
92.8
8.8
95.6
1970
67.6
100.0
4.6
100.0
1971
74.7
106.7
3.6
103.6
1972
77.4
112.2
-1.5
102.0
1973
80.9
118.8
-1.3
100.8
1974
86.4
125.0
1.5
102.2
1975
91.7
131.2
1.1
103.4
1976
94.2
135.6
-0.6
102.7
1977
96.2
138.9
-0.2
102.5
1978
99.2
143.0
0.1
102.6
1979
NA
144.1
NA
NA
1980
NA
147.7
NA
NA
Sources: Column 1: 1958-78 are from Narkhoz 1978, p. 41, and
similar tables in other issues. 1950-57 are derived by linking a series
of estimates of construction-installation work in current prices
developed by Moorsteen and Powell (The Soviet Capital Stock,
1928-1962, p. 395, table A-7, columns 5 plus 8) to the 1958 value.
Column 2: This was described in the text.
Columns 3 and 4: Both were derived from a comparison of columns 1
and 2.
87
Derivation of an Implicit Price Index for Investment in
New Construction and Other Capital Outlays
Year (1)
New
Construc-
tion and
Other
Capital
Outlays
(billion
rubles)
(2) (3) (4)
Investment Implicit Implicit
in New Annual Price
Construe- Price Index
tion Change (1970=100)
(billion 1969 (percent)
rubles)
1961
27.9
32.2
NA
82.2
1962
28.7
32.8
1.0
83.0
1963
29.6
33.8
0
83.0
1964
31.0
36.2
-2.1
81.3
1965
34.7
39.5
2.4
83.2
1966
36.8
42.5
-1.3
82.1
1967
43.4
46.1
8.8
89.3
1968
46.1
49.7
-1.5
88.0
1969
52.6
51.1
11.0
97.7
1970
59.8
56.7
2.4
100.0
1971
65.9
61.4
1.7
101.7
1972
68.1
65.5
-3.0
98.6
1973
70.8
67.6
0.7
99.3
1974
75.2
71.6
0.2
99.5
1975
79.3
76.4
-1.1
98.4
1976
80.7
77.9
-0.2
98.2
1977
81.5
79.9
-1.6
96.7
1978
83.2
83.8
-2.6
94.1
Sources: Column 1: This was derived from table B-3, column 1 less
capital repair of buildings and structures (table C-2, column 2).
Column 2: This was taken from Narkhoz 1972, p. 474, and similar
tables in other issues.
Columns 3 and 4: These were derived from a comparison of columns
1 and 2.
from the current-price gross output series in table B-3.
(See appendix C for the derivation of the capital
repair series in current prices.) The resulting series is
compared with the Narkhoz series on investment in
new construction and other capital outlays in constant
prices (table B-4). The implicit price index derived
from this camparison (column 4 of table B-4) matches
the index derived in table B-3 closely, especially the
large price increases in 1967 and 1969.
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Table B-5
Selected Purchases by Agriculture of Material
Inputs From Nonagricultural Sectors in 1972
Material-Input
Category
Input-Output Sector
Purchases by Agriculture
(thousand rubles,
purchasers' prices)
Share of Purchases
(percent)
Mineral fertilizer
2,102,579
16.3
Mineral chemistry products
59,649
Basic chemistry products
1,722,868
Organic synthetic products
12,570
Other chemicals
307,492
Electric power
Electric power
317,298
2.5
Fuel and lubricants
Oil refining
2,240,049
17.3
Machinery repair
3,993,145
30.9
Metallurgy
97,585
Machine building and metalworking
3,895,560
Fish meal
Fish products
397,966
3.1
Bone meal
Meat products
191,769
1.5
Milling byproducts
Flour and cereals
2,758,112
21.3
Oilseed meal
168,282
1.3
Vegetable products
57,336
Other foods
110,946
Skim milk
Dairy products
608,679
4.7
Sugar beets
Sugar
151,593
1.2
Total
12,929,472
100.0
Source: See table B-1 for a reference to the 1972 input-output data.
Agriculture
Scope and Coverage
The index of net agricultural production described by
Margaret Hughes and Barbara Severin (JEC, Agri-
culture) represents the gross value of agricultural
output less the value of that output used within
agriculture. In order to compute a value-added index
for agriculture, it is necessary to subtract also the
value of the materials and services purchased by
agriculture on current account from nonagricultural
sectors. This subtraction is described here.
The index of purchases from nonagricultural sectors is
by design a material-input index similar to the con-
struction index described above. We have been able to
construct indexes of 10 types of materials purchased
by agriculture. These indexes are combined using
weights derived from the 1972 Soviet input-output
table.
Weights
Table B-5 shows the derivation of the weights used to
combine the 10 indexes of material inputs purchased
from nonagricultural sectors. The 1972 Soviet input-
output table shows agriculture's purchases from all
sectors. Those purchases which relate to each of the
10 material-input indexes were summed and convert-
ed to percentage weights. The purchases selected in
this manner represent 71 percent of agriculture's
purchases from nonagricultural sectors in 1972. The
most important types of inputs are fuel, machinery
repair, and milling byproducts.
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Table B-6
Derivation of the Index of Purchases of Nonagricultural
Material Inputs by Agriculture
Index: 1972= 100
Year
Mineral
Fertil-
izer
Electric
Power
Fuel and
Lubri-
cants
Bone
Meal
Skim
Milk
Sugar
Beets
Total
Current
Purchases
Machin-
cry
Repair
Fish
Meal
Milling
Byprod-
ucts
Oilseed
Meal
1950
8.9
2.1
25.9
24.4
2.2
5.0
24.4
33.5
31.1
23.8
21.0
1951
9.5
2.6
28.4
26.8
3.3
5.5
27.8
40.7
32.9
30.6
23.4
1952
10.2
3.1
29.0
27.4
3.7
6.6
31.6
43.1
34.4
36.3
24.8
1953
1954
10.9
3.8
34.4
32.5
4.4
8.0
36.0
45.7
35.4
34.2
28.5
29.4
32.6
12.4
4.8
33.7
31.8
5.5
9.4
40.0
51.2
36.0
35.6
1955
14.0
6.1
37.4
35.3
6.6
10.2
44.3
47.3
42.9
30.3
1956
15.7
7.3
40.8
38.5
7.5
11.3
43.5
57.2
51.6
47.7
35.1
1957
17.2
9.1
45.1
42.5
7.9
13.5
47.4
61.7
58.8
48.9
38.7
41.3
44.1
1958
17.9
11.6
49.2
46.4
9.6
14.9
49.1
53.7
61.0
59.9
1959
18.5
14.3
51.9
48.9
12.7
18.2
51.6
64.2
66.8
79.3
64.3
1960
19.1
16.3
54.4
51.3
18.6
18.8
53.9
58.4
68.2
45.8
1961
20.3
19.2
57.6
54.4
23.0
21.0
62.4
60.2
72.3
81.1
50.0
1962
23.1
22.6
64.2
58.4
24.6
27.9
68.4
71.6
76.9
74.2
54.7
55.5
59.9
1963
27.8
25.5
66.8
65.0
30.5
35.6
56.5
73.1
71.9
68.3
1964
37.0
29.3
71.8
68.4
38.6
32.6
58.5
77.9
78.3
64.4
1965
46.2
34.7
74.7
73.5
52.0
45.3
68.5
86.0
99.3
118.3
68.1
73.3
1966
52.5
38.4
76.2
80.1
58.1
54.4
76.5
90.6
96.5
104.9
1967
58.4
44.1
79.2
86.6
71.3
65.5
81.6
99.8
98.1
108.4
78.8
1968
63.3
51.8
82.5
87.9
76.3
71.5
86.4
100.3
96.7
126.8
82.2
1969
69.1
61.3
86.1
90.3
82.0
68.0
88.9
100.9
88.3
130.8
85.0
88.6
1970
82.0
72.2
89.4
90.5
86.2
73.8
92.8
90.4
89.2
101.5
111.0
1971
1972
1973
92.1
85.9
94.8
93.3
93.6
90.3
93.3
97.7
94.6
93.5
100.0
107.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
110.1
114.6
105.5
109.8
111.0
101.7
101.7
107.8
114.7
105.8
120.9
104.9
1974
122.0
132.9
111.4
120.2
124.6
119.6
103.5
98.8
116.7
115.4
124.2
122.3
132.6
135.9
1975
1976
137.8
152.1
119.8
132.1
143.6
132.0
104.9
90.8
114.0
140.7
173.2
125.7
137.6
137.1
118.0
79.7
100.6
116.9
96.2
1977
145.6
184.7
131.3
142.5
127.0
124.6
107.0
104.9
130.4
132.4
1978
148.7
200.2
138.9
149.3
115.4
131.2
105.0
95.7
127.9
131.9
1979
146.4
215.8
146.8
151.0
112.1
134.0
111.2
92.2
122.7
124.5
107.7
138.8
144.1
1980
157.4
231.3
155.2
155.1
123.7
133.4
112.9
98.3
118.2
Source: See text.
Description of the Index
Table B-6 shows the construction of the index of
agriculture's purchases of nonagricultural materials.
It is a weighted average of 10 indexes of separate
types of materials. The indexes are derived partly
from data published in the Narkhoz and partly from
89
data gathered from Soviet monographs on agricul-
ture. In particular, data for agriculture's use of
mineral fertilizer and electric power are published in
the Narkhoz. The index of use of skim milk is
assumed to equal the index of industrially produced
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Table B-7
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Agriculture
(5)
Value Added
(billion 1972
rubles)
(6)
Index of
Value Added
(1970=100)
Year
(1)
Net Output
(billion 1970
rubles)
(2)
Index of
Column 1
(1972=100)
(3)
Net Output
(billion 1972
rubles)
(4)
Nonagricultural
Material Inputs
(billion 1972 rubles)
1950
38.1
48.5
41.2
3.9
37.3
50.4
1951
35.8
45.5
38.6
4.3
34.4
46.4
1952
37.6
47.9
40.7
4.5
36.1
48.8
1953
40.3
51.3
43.5
5.2
38.3
51.7
1954
41.2
52.4
44.5
5.4
39.1
52.8
1955
46.5
59.2
50.2
6.0
44.3
59.8
1956
52.9
67.4
57.2
6.4
50.8
68.6
1957
52.9
67.3
57.1
7.1
50.0
67.6
1958
57.2
72.8
61.8
7.6
54.2
73.2
1959
58.7
74.7
63.4
8.1
55.3
74.7
1960
58.0
73.8
62.6
8.4
54.3
73.3
1961
62.1
79.1
67.1
9.2
58.0
78.3
1962
61.3
78.1
66.2
10.0
56.2
75.9
1963
50.6
64.5
54.7
10.2
44.5
60.2
1964
64.6
82.3
69.8
11.0
58.8
79.5
1965
69.2
88.1
74.7
12.5
62.3
84.1
1966
72.3
92.1
78.1
13.4
64.7
87.4
1967
72.3
92.1
78.1
14.4
63.7
86.0
1968
76.6
97.5
82.7
15.1
67.7
91.4
1969
74.3
94.6
80.3
15.6
64.7
87.4
1970
83.6
106.4
90.3
16.2
74.0
100.0
1971
83.2
105.9
89.9
17.1
72.8
98.3
1972
78.5
100.0
84.8
18.3
66.5
89.9
1973
90.1
114.7
97.3
19.7
77.6
104.8
1974
89.8
114.4
97.1
21.1
75.9
102.5
1975
82.0
104.4
88.6
22.8
65.8
88.9
1976
88.6
112.9
95.8
22.4
73.4
99.1
1977
92.8
118.1
100.2
24.3
75.9
102.5
1978
95.8
121.9
103.5
24.9
78.6
106.1
1979
90.2
114.8
97.4
25.4
72.0
97.3
1980
86.3
109.8
93.2
26.4
66.8
90.2
Sources: Column 1: This is from JEC, Agriculture, table A-1.
Column 2: This is column 1 converted to index form (1972=100).
Column 3: This is column 2 multiplied by the base-year (1972) value
of 84.8 billion rubles. The derivation of the base-year value is
described in the text.
Column 4: This is column 11 of table B-6 multiplied by the base-year
(1972) value of 18.3 billion rubles. The derivation of the base-year
value is described in the text.
Column 5: This is column 3 less column 4.
Column 6: This is column 5 converted to index form (1970=100).
90
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butter, and the index of sugar beets is assumed to
equal the index of state procurements of sugar beets.
The other indexes are estimated from a variety of
sources. The detailed derivation of each index is too
extensive to present here.
Table B-7 shows the computation of the index of value
added in agriculture. This calculation also is based on
the 1972 input-output table. First an index of net
agricultural output is computed in 1972 prices by
multiplying the 1972 value derived from the input-
output table by the index derived by Hughes and
Severin in 1970 prices (JEC, Agriculture, table A-1)
The 1972 value of net agricultural output is computed
as follows:
Billion Rubles
Gross output of agriculture in 114.7
purchasers' prices
Less: Purchases from the trade sector 4.6
Less: Purchases from the transporta- 1.4
tion and communiciations
sector
Less: Purchases from the agriculture 23.9
sector
Equals: Net agricultural output 84.8
Similarly, the index of nonagricultural material in-
puts is expressed in 1972 prices by multiplying it by
the 1972 value of such purchases, 18.3 billion rubles.
This value can be derived from the 1972 input-output
table as the sum of all purchases from the nonagricul-
tural sectors. Subtracting the material-input series
from the net output series produces an estimate of
value added in agriculture in 1972 rubles which can
then be converted to index form.
In the general discussion about the problems of
measuring the real growth of value added, it was
indicated that use of a gross output index may be
preferable to the double deflation method unless the
difference between the annual growth rates of gross
output and the material inputs is 2 percentage points
or more. Table B-8 shows the annual growth rates of
gross output, total material inputs, and value added
for agriculture. It is clear that frequently there is a
large gap between the growth rates; therefore, the
double deflation procedure described here is prefera-
ble for this sector.
91
Table B-8 Annual Percentage Rates of Growth
Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and
Value Added in Agriculture
Year
(1)
Gross
Output
(2)
Total
Material
Inputs
(3)
Value
Added
(4)
Column 1
Less
Column 2
1951
-4.9
3.2
-8.0
-8.1
1.6
-1.3
1952
4.4
2.9
5.1
1953
6.6
7.8
6.0
1954
2.8
4.6
2.0
-1.8
1955
12.7
11.5
13.3
1.2
1956
14.6
14.2
14.7
0.4
1957
1.6
8.8
-1.5
-7.2
0.3
1958
8.2
7.9
8.4
19.59
1.7
0.9
2.1
0.8
1960
-0.3
3.2
-2.0
-3.5
1.1
1961
6.3
5.1
6.9
1962
-0.3
5.4
-3.0
-5.7
1963
-15.1
-4.3
-20.8
-10.9
1964
21.7
4.9
32.1
16.7
0.8
1965
5.4
4.7
5.8
1966
6.7
12.4
4.0
-5.7
1967
0
2.9
-1.6
-2.9
1968
5.3
3.5
6.3
1.8
1969
-1.2
4.6
-4.4
-5.8
1970
11.5
6.7
14.4
4.9
1971
-0.3
2.2
-1.7
-2.5
1972
-5.0
1.2
-8.5
-6.2
1973
15.5
13.6
16.7
1.9
1974
-2.2
-2.3
-2.2
0.1
1975
-7.3
2.2
-13.3
-9.6
1976
8.4
4.4
11.4
4.1
1977
3.3
3.0
3.5
0.3
1978
4.3
5.5
3.5
-1.2
-5.1
1979
-4.8
0.3
-8.3
1980
-5.2
-2.4
-7.3
-2.8
Sources: Column 1: The gross output of agriculture is computed as
the sum of the gross outputs of the livestock and crops sectors. The
gross output of the livestock sector is published in JEC, Agriculture
(table A-1). The gross output of the crops sector is equal to net crops
output (ibid) plus the value of seed and waste (unpublished
estimates).
Column 2: Total material inputs are computed as the sum of non-ag-
ricultural material purchases (table B-7, column 4) and agricultural
material purchases. The latter (unpublished) is calculated as gross
output less net output.
Column 3: This was computed from table 8-7, column 6.
Column 4: This is column 1 less column 2.
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Transportation
Scope and Coverage
The transportation sector includes enterprises en-
gaged in the transportation of freight, passengers, and
associated activities by rail, sea, inland water, auto-
mobile, air, oil and gas pipeline, urban electric transit,
timber rafting, tug service, loading and unloading
services, and maintenance of highways (Ukazaniya,
pp. 742-745).
Our index is a composite of 16 physical series of
various types of freight and passenger transportation,
aggregated with 1970 revenue weights. The procedure
is similar to that used by N. M. Kaplan, Soviet
Transport and Communications Output Indexes,
1928-62, Research Memorandum 4264-PR and Sup-
plement, Santa Monica, Calif., the Rand Corporation,
1964 and 1965. Comparable results for 1950-63 given
by Kaplan and the index derived here are nearly
identical. The approach is also comparable to that
taken by Kendrick to obtain an output index for
transportation as part of an investigation of longrun
productivity trends in the United States (John W.
Kendrick, Postwar Productivity Trends in the United
States, New York, National Bureau of Economic
Research, 1973, pp. 186-193). The US GNP accounts
also use a gross output index, but one which is
primarily deflated current-price data.
The coverage of the index is incomplete. Omitted
entirely are timber rafting, road maintenance, tug
service, and activities of independent enterprises en-
gaged in loading and unloading; employment in such
omitted activities is estimated to have been about 10
percent of total transport employment in 1970.
A special problem arises with respect to freight
hauled by trucks. Two physical series are published in
the Narkhoz. One relates to common carriers only
and the other to total truck haulage in the economy.
Most of the trucking activity done by nontransport
enterprises is believed to be short-haul work in con-
nection with the current operations of the parent
enterprise. This type of activity is considered part of
the sectors to which the parent enterprise belongs in
the US accounts and, therefore, the physical series
relating to common carriers only is used here. This
results in a lower weight for the truck index, but a
higher growth rate.
Total transportation revenue is calculated as the sum
of freight and passenger revenue. Freight revenue is
calculated as the sum of the revenue estimated for
each of seven modes�rail, sea, inland water, truck,
oil pipeline, air, and gas pipeline. The revenue for
each mode is calculated as the product of a physical
measure and a 1970 average revenue value. Passenger
revenue is calculated as the sum of the revenue
estimated for each of nine modes�rail, sea, inland
water, bus, air, tram, trolley bus, subway, and taxi.
The passenger index is virtually the same as the
transportation component of the consumption index;
its construction is described by Schroeder and Denton
(JEC, Consumption). The only difference is that
business travel expenses are not deducted for the
sector-of-origin index.
Weights
The weights used to aggregate the seven freight
subindexes are 1970 average revenue rates per ton-
kilometer (tkm) (for gas pipelines, average revenue per
cubic meter of gas transported). The weights and their
sources are as follows:
Mode
Average Rate Source
(kopecks)
Rail
0.400 per ton-
kilometer (tkm)
Transport i svyaz',
p. 111.
Sea 0.263 per tkm Ibid, p. 151.
Inland water 0.418 per tkm Ibid, p. 186.
Truck 7.05 per tkm
Oil pipeline 0.123 per tkm
Ibid, pp. 222, 251.
Ibid, p. 203 with 28-
percent profit markup
added.
Air 15.63 per tkm See text.
Gas pipeline
0.258 per cubic
meter
R. D. Margulov et al,
Razvitiya gazovoy pro-
myshlennosti, Moscow,
Nedra, 1976, p. 11 with a
28-percent profit mark-
up added.
92
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The average air revenue rate in 1970 was obtained by
adding an arbitrary profit markup of 25 percent to the
estimated 1970 average cost of 12.5 kopecks per tkm.
An average cost of 17.7 kopecks per tkm in 1965 is
given in N. N. Barkov, ed., Zheleznedorozhniy trans-
port v sisteme edinoy transportnoy seti USSR, Mos-
cow, Transport, 1967, p. 51. The average cost for
1965 was extrapolated forward to 1970 using the
average rate of decrease of 7 percent per year calcu-
lated from data for 1958-68 published in Flight
International, 25 September 1969, p. 485.
Description of the Index
The physical data for freight transportation are shown
in table B-9.The resulting values for gross revenue of
freight, passenger, and total transportation are shown
in table B-10 in ruble and index format. The sources
for the freight transportation data are as follows:
Mode Physical Measure Sources
Rail, inland water, Ton-kilometers Transport i svyaz', p. 17,
sea, air, and oil and similar tables in
pipeline Narkhozy for subse-
quent years.
Truck Ton-kilometers
Ibid, p. 222, and similar
tables in Narkhozy for
subsequent years.
Gas pipeline Cubic meters
Ibid, p. 204, and similar
tables in Narkhozy for
subsequent years.
Ideally, the physical series for gas pipelines should
take account of the increasing average distance that
gas is transported as a result of the exploitation of
Siberian fields. Unfortunately, we do not have suffi-
cient data to estimate changes in the average distance
transported. Hence, no adjustment is made to the gas
pipeline index.
Communications
The index used for the communications sector is
identical to that used for the communications compo-
nent of the consumption index. The methodology and
data used are described by Schroeder and Denton in
JEC, Consumption.
93
Trade
Scope and Coverage
The trade sector in Soviet statistics encompasses a
range of activity roughly equivalent to the wholesale
and retail trade sectors in the US classification.
Included are: retail trade, public dining, foreign trade,
film rentals, material-technical supply (concerned
with supplying production enterprises and farms),
wholesale trade (concerned with supplying consumer
goods to retail trade outlets), and agricultural pro-
curement (concerned with state purchasing of farm
products from producers). For a more detailed de-
scription, see Ukazaniya, pp. 748-751.
The index of value added in the trade sector is based
on the assumption that value added is correlated with
the volume of goods processed by the trade sector.
The trade sector is divided into three major branches
(retail trade, wholesale trade which includes material-
technical supply, and agricultural procurement), and
an index is computed of the value in 1970 prices of
goods processed by each branch. The trade index is a
weighted average of the three branch indexes. The
weights are the value added of each branch in 1970.
The coverage of the trade index is nearly complete.
There is no explicit measurement of the activity
associated with foreign trade, but much of this activi-
ty is probably captured in the retail and wholesale
trade indexes. Film rentals are not included, but the
value added associated with them is tiny. The retail
trade index implicitly includes the activities of public
dining enterprises.
An alternative procedure, used in the US accounts, is
to deflate the current-price value of sales in the
various trade channels. It is not employed here be-
cause of the lack of reliable price deflators.
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Table B-9
Data Relating to the Activity of Various Modes of Freight Transportation
Year
(1)
Rail
(billion tkm)
(2)
Sea
(billion tkm)
(3)
Inland Water
(billion tkm)
(4)
Oil Pipeline
(billion tkm)
(5)
Truck
(billion tkm)
(6)
Air
(billion tkm)
(7)
Gas Pipeline
(billion
cubic meters)
1950
602.3
39.7
46.2
4.9
0.9
0.14
1.5
1951
677.3
40.3
51.9
5.5
1.1
0.18
1.8
1952
741.3
44.3
58.2
6.4
1.2
0.20
2.1
1953
798.0
48.2
59.3
7.6
2.5
0.22
2.5
1954
856.8
56.6
62.8
10.2
4.2
0.24
3.0
1955
970.9
68.9
67.7
14.7
9.3
0.25
3.5
1956
1,079.1
82.4
70.5
20.5
11.9
0.31
6.0
1957
1,212.8
92.7
76.4
26.6
15.0
0.34
10.3
1958
1,302.0
106.3
85.5
33.8
18.4
0.40
17.8
1959
1,429.5
115.7
93.6
41.6
22.2
0.44
23.6
1960
1,504.3
131.5
99.6
51.2
27.2
0.56
32.8
1961
1,566.6
159.1
106.0
60.0
29.3
0.80
45.8
1962
1,646.3
173.4
109.9
74.5
31.7
0.89
60.3
1963
1,749.4
226.3
114.5
90.9
34.1
0.91
80.0
1964
1,854.1
297.6
124.5
112.1
38.7
1.14
97.9
1965
1,950.2
388.8
133.9
146.7
50.2
1.34
112.1
1966
2,016.0
442.8
137.7
165.0
52.2
1.45
128.8
1967
2,160.5
527.1
143.9
183.4
55.8
1.66
143.3
1968
2,274.8
586.8
155.4
215.9
57.5
1.80
155.1
1969
2,367.1
601.3
160.1
244.6
59.7
1.95
166.0
1970
2,494.7
656.1
174.0
281.7
64.2
1.88
181.5
1971
2,637.3
696.0
183.8
328.5
68.9
1.98
209.8
1972
2,760.8
698.4
180.3
375.9
73.6
2.19
219.9
1973
2,958.0
750.7
189.5
439.4
80.9
2.37
231.1
1974
3,097.7
778.1
212.3
533.4
89.2
2.49
245.7
1975
3,236.5
736.3
221.7
665.9
96.9
2.59
279.4
1976
3,295.4
762.2
222.7
794.6
102.6
2.71
309.5
1977
3,330.9
772.6
230.7
922.4
109.3
2.80
334.6
1978
3,429.4
827.6
243.7
1,049.1
115.8
2.86
351.1
1979
3,349.3
851.1
232.7
1,140.7
123.0
2.91
378.0
1980
3,435.0
848.3
244.7
1,216.0
130.7
3.09
417.7
Sources: See text.
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Table B-10
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Transportation
Year
(6)
(1) (2)
Freight Transportation
(3) (4)
Personal Transportation
(5)
Total Transportation
Billion 1970
Rubles
Index
(1970=100)
Billion 1970
Rubles
Index
(1970=100)
Billion 1970
Rubles
Index
(1970=100)
1950
2.8
15.5
1.2
15.3
4.0
15.5
1951
3.1
17.4
1.3
17.1
4.5
17.3
19.0
1952
3.5
19.1
1.5
18.7
4.9
1953
3.8
21.0
1.6
20.9
5.4
21.0
1954
4.2
23.2
1.8
23.2
6.0
23.2
1955
5.1
28.1
2.0
26.4
7.1
27.6
1956
5.8
31.9
2.2
27.8
7.9
30.7
1957
6.6
36.4
2.4
31.3
9.0
34.9
1958
7.3
40.4
2.7
34.4
10.0
38.6
42.9
47.0
1959
8.2
45.2
2.9
37.5
11.1
1960
8.9
49.4
3.2
41.4
12.1
1961
9.5
52.6
3.5
45.2
13.0
50.4
1962
10.1
56.0
3.9
50.7
14.0
54.4
1963
10.9
60.5
4.3
55.4
15.2
59.0
64.4
1964
12.0
66.5
4.6
59.6
16.6
1965
13.6
75.3
5.0
64.9
18.6
72.2
1966
14.2
78.8
5.6
72.2
19.8
76.9
83.6
1967
15.4
85.3
6.1
79.4
21.6
1968
16.3
90.2
6.7
87.3
23.0
89.3
93.8
1969
17.0
93.9
7.2
93.7
24.2
1970
18.1
100.0
7.7
100.0
25.8
100.0
1971
19.3
106.6
8.3
107.0
27.5
106.7
112.6
1972
20.2
111.8
8.9
114.5
29.1
1973
21.8
120.7
9.3
120.6
31.1
120.7
1974
23.3
128.9
10.0
129.7
33.3
129.2
1975
24.6
136.1
10.8
139.3
35.4
137.0
1976
25.5
141.4
11.4
146.8
36.9
143.0
1977
26.5
146.5
11.3
145.6
37.7
146.2
1978
27.7
153.4
11.7
151.8
39.5
152.9
1979
28.1
155.6
12.3
158.5
40.4
156.5
1980
29.2
161.8
12.7
164.2
41.9
162.5
Sources: Column 1: For each year, the physical value in each column
in table B-9 is multiplied by the average revenue rate given in the
text and the results are summed.
Column 2: This is an index of column 1.
Column 3: The same procedure is followed as for column 1.
95
The physical values and the average revenue weights are given in
JEC, Consumption.
Column 4: This is an index of column 3.
Column 5: This is column 1 plus column 3.
Column 6: This is an index of column 5.
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Weights
Value added in the trade sector in 1970 is derived in
appendix D, at 18.273 billion rubles. The value added
in each of the three branches of the trade sector is
shown in the following tabulation:
Distribution of the Value Added Billion Rubles
in the Trade Sector, 1970
Total
Trade
Retail
Trade
Wholesale
Trade
Agricultural
Procurement
Total value
added
18.273
11.263
4.826
2.184
Wage bill
8.748
6.436
1.646
0.666
Other and
imputed
income
0.932
0.686
0.175
0.071
Social
insurance
0.395
0.291
0.074
0.030
Depreci-
ation
1.323
0.574
0.531
0.218
Profits
6.679
3.359
2.208
1.112
Subsidies
-0.530
-0.530
0
0
Miscella-
neous
charges
0.726
0.447
0.192
0.087
Percent
100.0
61.64
26.41
11.95
The sources for each line item are:
Total Value Added. This is derived as the sum of the
components.
Wage Bill. The total wage bill, 8.748 billion rubles, is
divided among the branches using employment data
for the USSR and wage data for Estonia. Average
wages and employment in Estonia for 1970 for three
branches (retail trade, wholesale trade, and public
dining; material-technical supply; and agricultural
procurement) are given in Narodnoe khozyaystvo
Estonskoy SSR v 1972 godu, Tallin, Eesti Raamat,
1973, pp. 219 and 223. These data plus the implied
average monthly wage rate for the total trade sector
are shown in the tabulation below. Also shown is the
ratio of the monthly wages in each of the three
branches to the monthly wage rate for the entire trade
sector:
(1)
Employment
in Estonia
(thousands)
(2)
Monthly
Wages in
Estonia
(rubles)
(3)
Ratio of
Monthly Wages
to Average
(percent)
Total trade
sector
54.2
105.9
100.0
Trade (whole-
sale and retail)
and public
dining
46.1
103.5
97.7
Material-
technical
supply
6.0
121.5
114.7
Agricultural
procurement
2.1
113.9
107.6
It is assumed that the structure of relative monthly
wages was the same for the USSR as it was for
Estonia. The first column in the tabulation below
shows the average monthly wage rates implied by this
assumption. They are calculated by multiplying the
data in column 3 of the tabulation above by the
average monthly wage for the total trade sector for
the USSR of 95.1 rubles (Narkhoz 1979, p. 395).
Employment in each branch is shown in column 2.
Total trade and retail trade employment are given in
Narkhoz 1973, pp. 575 and 671. Agricultural pro-
curement employment is given in P. I. Vakhrin,
Formirovaniye osnovnykh fondov kooperativnoy
torgovli, Moscow, Ekonomika, 1974, p. 14. Wholesale
trade and material-technical supply employment are
derived as a residual. The annual wage bill implied for
each branch by the average monthly wage rates and
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employment is shown in column 3. Finally, these data
are scaled up in column 4 so that the total wages
equal 8.748 billion rubles.
(1)
Monthly
Wages
(rubles)
(2) (3)
Employment Annual
(million Wage
persons) Bill
(billion
rubles)
(4)
Adjusted
Wage Bill
(billion
rubles)
Total trade 95.1
sector
7.537
NA
8.748
Retail trade 92.9
and public
dining
5.746
6.406
6.436
Wholesale 109.1
trade and
material-
technical
supply
1.251
1.638
1.646
Agricultural 102.3
procurement
0.540
0.663
0.666
Other and Imputed Income. The total, 0.932 billion
rubles, was distributed among the branches on the
basis of their shares of the wage bill.
Social Insurance. The total, 0.395 billion rubles, was
distributed among the branches on the basis of their
shares of the wage bill.
Depreciation. Total depreciation in trade was distrib-
uted among the branches on the basis of their relative
shares in total amortization deductions as given in
Narkhoz 1972, p. 723. The allocation between retail
and wholesale trade was made by estimating amorti-
zation deductions for wholesale trade and subtracting
the result from the amount given for the two branches
combined. The estimate for wholesale trade was made
by assuming that the ratio of amortization to wages in
that branch was the same as in material-technical
supply.
Profits. Total profits in the branches of trade are
given in Narkhoz 1973, pp. 763 and 767. Since the
1970 value-added component for profits represents
net profits (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 67), the component
representing state enterprise profits (5.396 billion
rubles) was distributed among the branches on the
97
basis of their shares in total profits of state enter-
prises. Net profits equal total profits less the bonuses
paid from profits which are also included in wages.
Net profits of consumer cooperatives were included
with retail trade and public dining.
Subsidies. This item applies only to retail trade. It
represents budget reimbursement for losses incurred
in sales of slow-moving goods to the population at
reduced prices (0.400 billion rubles) and a subsidy on
the procurement of fresh vegetables by retail trade
(0.130 billion rubles).
Description of the Index
Retail Trade. The value of total goods flowing
through the state and cooperative retail trade network
in 1970 prices is derived by deducting the value of
collective-farm-market and commission sales and the
value of household consumption in kind from our
index of personal consumption of food expressed in
ruble terms, and then adding ruble estimates of the
consumption of soft goods and durables. The resulting
series measures household purchases of goods in state
and cooperative trade in real terms.
Estimates of collective-farm-market sales and house-
hold consumption in kind first were derived for the
benchmark years of 1950, 1955, 1960, 1966, 1970,
1974, and 1976 as shown in tables B-11 and B-12.
The procedure is similar to that used in CIA, GNP
1970. First, physical quantities of seven products sold
on collective farm markets and nine products con-
sumed in kind by households were estimated for each
benchmark year. In general, gross output is divided
into the amounts used in production, marketed out-
put, and, as a residual, farm household consumption
in kind. Collective-farm-market sales are then esti-
mated as marketed output less state procurement,
decentralized procurement, and the difference, if any,
between the physical and accounting weight of pro-
curements. Some of the major sources and procedures
are indicated in the sources to tables B-11 and B-12.
Greater detail is given in CIA, GNP 1970, table A-1,
pp. 27-31. The quantities of each product for each
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Table B-11
Valuation of Farm Household Consumption in Kind in 1970 Prices
Price
(rubles per
ton)
1950
1955
1960
1966
1970
1974
1976
Grain
103
Thousand tons
15,000
16,000
10,000
6,000
3,000
3,000
3,000
Billion rubles
1.545
1.648
1.030
0.618
0.309
0.309
0.309
Potatoes
114
Thousand tons
30,000
15,000
16,500
18,600
21,843
17,000
13,932
Billion rubles
3.420
1.710
1.881
2.120
2.490
1.938
1.588
Vegetables
163
Thousand tons
3,175
4,380
5,259
3,686
3,170
2,951
1,606
Billion rubles
0.518
0.714
0.857
0.601
0.517
0.481
0.262
Meat: slaughter weight
Thousand tons
2,400
2,700
2,700
3,000
2,878
2,820
2,500
Meat
2,327
Thousand tons
1,956
2,187
2,195
2,403
2,328
2,233
2,043
Billion rubles
4.552
5.089
5.108
5.592
5.418
5.197
4.753
Animal fat
1,900
Thousand tons
365
445
435
519
469
491
382
Billion rubles
0.693
0.846
0.826
0.986
0.891
0.932
0.727
Milk for home produced
butter
Thousand tons
2,599
2,599
2,509
2,509
2,350
2,260
2,102
Milk
196
Thousand tons
16,701
17,701
22,109
21,783
21,166
20,300
17,656
Billion rubles
3.273
3.469
4.333
4.270
4.148
3.979
3.461
Butter
3,450
Thousand tons
115
115
111
111
104
100
93
Billion rubles
.
0.397
0.397
0.383
0.383
0.359
0.345
0.321
Eggs
100�
Million
7,755
11,424
15,890
15,335
16,793
18,606
17,169
Billion rubles
0.775
1.142
1.589
1.533
1.679
1.861
1.717
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Table B-11 (continued)
1974
1976
Price
(rubles per
ton)
1950
� 1955
1960
1966
1970
Fruit
282
Thousand tons
1,100
1,000
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,000
2,500
Billion rubles
0.310
0.282
0.282
0.423
0.564
0.564
0.705
Total (billion rubles)
15.483
15.298
16.290
16.526
16.376
15.606
13.842
a The price of eggs is 100 rubles per thousand eggs.
Sources for this table:
Grain. The quantities are estimated by the general methodology
given in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 31. The 1974 and 1976 values are
arbitrarily set equal to the 1970 value. The price is given in CIA,
GNP 1970, p. 32.
Potatoes. The quantities are derived as gross output less the amounts
used for seed and marketed output. Gross output and marketed
output are given in Narkhoz 1974, pp. 316 and 369, and similar
tables in other issues. Seeding rates are derived separately for each
year at 19 centners per hectare in 1950, 1955, and 1960; 20 centners
per hectare in 1966 and 1974; and 25 centners per hectare in 1970.
The price is given in CIA GNP 1970, p. 32.
Vegetables. The quantities are derived in the same manner as
potatoes. Twenty percent of the gross output is assumed to be fed to
livestock. The price is from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 32.
Meat. The slaughter weight of meat is derived in detail as described
in CIA, GNP 1970, table A-3, p. 38. The slaughter weight is then di-
vided into the quantities consumed as meat or animal fat. The
percentages of the slaughter weight used for each year are:
Meat
Animal Fat
1950
81.5
15.2
1955
81.0
16.5
1960
81.3
16.1
1966
80.1
17.3
1970
80.9
16.3
1974
79.2
17.4
1976
81.7
15.3
99
The detailed derivation of these shares and the prices (not presented
here) is based on estimates of the quantities and prices of several
types of meat. See CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 27-38, for the general
procedure used.
Milk. The quantities of total milk are derived in the same manner as
potatoes. Milk consumed is equal to total milk less the quantity used
for butter, calculated at 22.6 tons of milk per ton of butter. The
quantities of butter for 1960, 1970, 1974, and 1976 are given in
Narkhoz 1974, p. 187, and similar tables in other issues. The
quantities for 1950 and 1955 are assumed to be equal to the value
published for 1953, and the quantity for 1966 is assumed to be equal
to the value published for 1965. The price for milk is from CIA, GNP
1970, p. 34. Thirteen percent of the gross output is assumed to be
used in production.
Eggs. The quantities are derived in the same manner as potatoes.
The number of hatching eggs are calculated as described in CIA,
GNP 1970, p. 29. The price is given in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 35.
Fruit. The quantities consumed in kind are estimated to be 40
percent of the gross output in 1950, 30 percent in 1955, 20 percent in
1960, 19 percent in 1966, 17 percent in 1970, and 16 percent in 1974.
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Table B-12
Valuation of Collective Farm Ex�Village Market and Commission Sales in 1970 Prices
Price
(rubles per
ton)
1950
1955
1960
1966
1970
1974
1976
Grain
248
Thousand tons
3,290
2,330
2,270
2,100
2,004
1,500
1,500
Billion rubles
0.816
0.578
0.563
0.521
0.497
0.372
0.372
Potatoes
179
Thousand tons
6,460
6,530
5,690
5,610
6,002
5,910
5,960
Billion rubles
1.156
1.169
1.019
1.004
1.074
1.058
1.067
Vegetables
381
Thousand tons
1,560
1,940
1,580
1,460
1,781
1,790
1,138
Billion rubles
0.594
0.739
0.602
0.556
0.679
0.682
0.434
Meat: slaughter weight
Thousand tons
793
776
686
894
1,093
900
1,060
Meat
2,378
Thousand tons
646
629
558
716
884
713
866
Billion rubles
1.537
1.495
1.326
1.703
2.103
1.695
2.059
Animal fat
1,900
Thousand tons
121
128
110
155
178
157
162
Billion rubles
0.229
0.243
0.210
0.294
0.339
0.298
0.308
Milk
316
Thousand tons
2,420
2,860
1,860
1,360
1,048
910
958
Billion rubles
0.765
0.904
0.588
0.430
0.331
0.288
0.303
Eggs
126a
Million
1,370
3,140
3,170
2,780
2,522
2,130
1,963
Billion rubles
0.173
0.396
0.399
0.350
0.318
0.268
0.247
Total (billion rubles)
5.270
5.523
4.707
4.858
5.340
4.660
4.790
a The price of eggs is 126 rubles per thousand eggs.
Sources: The quantities for 1950, 1955, and 1960 are taken from
Jerzy F. Karcz, "Quantitative Analysis of the Collective Farm
Market," American Economic Review 54, June 1964, unpublished
appendix. The quantities for 1966 are derived by extending the
Karcz series by means of commodity indexes for collective-farm-
market sales presented in Narkhoz 1968, p. 654. The quantities for
1970, 1974, and 1976 are calculated as in CIA, GNP 1970�that is,
marketed output less all procurements and the difference, if any,
between the physical and accounting weight of procurements. The
prices are from CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 32-35.
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benchmark year are then multiplied by 1970 prices
and summed to obtain total ruble values for collective-
farm-market and commission sales and for household
consumption in kind.
Ruble values for collective-farm-market sales and
household consumption in kind for all other years
were obtained by interpolation. The ruble values for
both consumption categories in each benchmark year
were expressed as percentages of the total consump-
tion of food. The percentages between each bench-
mark year were interpolated based on equal percent-
age rates of change. The interpolated percentages
were then multiplied by the total consumption of food
to obtain ruble values. These calculations and the
resulting retail trade index are shown in table B-13.
Wholesale Trade. The wholesale trade network serves
as an intermediary between industrial enterprises and
retail trade enterprises. The material-technical supply
system serves as an intermediary between state pro-
duction enterprises. The index used to measure both
types of activity is a weighted average of nine gross
output indexes of branches of industry. All branches
except for electric power and "other industry" are
included. The industrial production indexes are de-
scribed by Ray Converse in JEC, Industry. The
derivation of the wholesale trade index is shown in
table B-14. The 1970 gross outputs of the nine
branches were computed in producers' prices as part
of the factor-cost adjustment described in appendix E
and are shown in the following tabulation:
Estimated Gross Outputs of Selected
Branches of Industry, 1970
(Producers' Prices)
Billion Rubles
Percent
Total
363.618
100.00
Ferrous metals
24.702
6.79
Nonferrous metals
12.374
3.40
Fuels
22.442
6.17
Machinery
92.800
25.52
Chemicals
22.414
6.16
Wood, pulp, and paper
19.419
5.34
Construction materials
15.990
4.40
Light industry
62.988
17.32
Food industry
90.489
24.89
101
Agricultural Procurement. The value of 16 agricul-
tural products purchased from state and collective
farms and from private individuals for use by state
production enterprises or retail trade outlets forms our
index of agricultural procurement activity. The data
exclude decentralized procurement, which in 1970
amounted to only about 4 percent of the value of all
slate procurement.
The physical series are aggregated with 1970 average
procurement prices. The average prices for eight
products�grain, potatoes, vegetables, sunflower
seeds, meat, milk, wool, and eggs�were calculated
directly from data on quantities and prices for the
three procurement channels (state farms, collective
farms, and individuals) given in CIA, GNP 1970, pp.
32-35. Average procurement prices for the remaining
products were obtained as explained and documented
in JEC, Agriculture. The derivation of the percentage
weights to combine the 16 products is shown in table
B-15 and the physical quantities in table B-16. The
resulting index is shown in table B-17.
The Total Trade Index
The three branch indexes are combined using the
weights developed above. The branch indexes and the
resulting total trade index are shown in table B-17.
Services
The end-use housing, utilities, repair and personal
care, recreation, education, and health indexes are
described by Schroeder and Denton in JEC, Con-
sumption. Only the differences from those indexes
arid the remaining service indexes are described here.
The end-use utilities index is a weighted average of
the housing stock and household consumption of
electricity and natural gas. The sector-of-origin utili-
ties index does not include an electricity component
because the activity of the urban electric power
network is believed to be included with the electric
power branch of industry. The natural gas component
is measured by total production rather than personal
consumption in order to reflect the fact that the
93-892 0 - 82 - 8
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Table B-13
Derivation of the Retail Trade Index
Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Consumption Income in Kind Collective Farm Sales Retail Trade Sales
of Food
(billion Percent Billion Percent Billion Food Soft Goods Durables Total Index
1970 of (1) 1970 of (1) 1970 (billion (billion (billion (billion (1970=
rubles) Rubles Rubles 1970 1970 1970 1970 100)
rubles) rubles) rubles) rubles)
1950
42.7
36.3
15.5
12.4
5.3
21.9
10.8
1.5
34.3
23.7
1951
42.1
34.4
14.5
11.9
5.0
22.6
12.3
1.8
36.7
25.3
1952
45.7
32.6
14.9
11.4
5.2
25.6
13.0
2.1
40.6
28.1
1953
49.6
31.0
15.3
10.9
5.4
28.8
14.4
2.7
45.9
31.7
1954
51.2
29.4
15.0
10.5
5.4
30.8
16.7
3.4
51.0
35.2
1955
54.9
27.9
15.3
10.1
5.5
34.1
17.6
3.7
55.5
38.3
1956
57.3
26.8
15.4
9.3
5.3
36.6
19.1
4.1
59.9
41.4
1957
61.9
25.8
16.0
8.5
5.3
40.6
20.4
5.0
66.0
45.6
1958
66.2
24.9
16.5
7.9
5.2
44.5
22.0
5.5
71.9
49.7
1959
67.8
23.9
16.2
7.2
4.9
46.7
23.3
6.0
76.0
52.5
1960
70.6
23.1
16.3
6.7
4.7
49.6
25.2
6.7
81.6
56.4
1961
72.3
22.3
16.1
6.5
4.7
51.5
26.1
6.9
84.4
58.3
1962
75.4
21.6
16.3
6.3
4.7
54.4
27.0
7.2
88.6
61.2
1963
79.4
20.9
16.6
6.1
4.8
58.0
27.1
7.2
92.2
63.7
1964
79.3
20.2
16.0
5.9
4.7
58.6
28.0
7.9
94.4
65.2
1965
83.3
19.6
16.3
5.7
4.8
62.2
29.9
8.8
100.8
69.6
1966
87.2
18.9
16.5
5.6
4.9
65.9
32.5
9.8
108.2
74.7
1967
92.6
17.9
16.6
5.4
5.0
71.0
35.4
10.7
117.1
80.9
1968
98.1
17.0
16.6
5.2
5.2
76.4
38.5
11.8
126.7
87.5
1969
103.9
16.0
16.7
5.1
5.3
81.9
41.4
12.8
136.1
94.0
1970
107.9
15.2
16.4
4.9
5.3
86.2
44.3
14.3
144.8
100.0
1971
110.3
14.6
16.2
4.7
5.2
89.0
46.4
16.2
151.6
104.7
102
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Table B-13 (Continued)
Derivation of the Retail Trade Index
Year (1) (2) (3)
Consumption Income in Kind
of Food
(4) (5) (6) (7)
Collective Farm Sales Retail Trade Sales
(billion Percent Billion Percent Billion
1970 of (1) 1970 of (1) 1970
rubles) Rubles Rubles
(8) (9) (10)
Food
(billion
1970
rubles)
Soft Goods
(billion
1970
rubles)
Durables
(billion
1970
rubles)
Total
(billion
1970
rubles)
Index
(1970=
100)
1972
110.4
14.1
15.6
4.4
4.9
89.9
47.7
18.7
156.3
1973
114.0
13.6
15.5
4.2
4.7
93.8
49.3
20.3
163.3
1974
118.7
13.1
15.6
3.9
4.7
98.5
51.0
22.0
171.4
1975
122.6
12.5
15.3
3.8
4.6
102.6
53.8
24.1
180.5
1976
123.6
11.2
13.8
3.9
4.8
105.0
56.3
25.7
187.0
1977
126.2
11.0
13.8
3.8
4.8
107.6
58.2
28.0
193.9
1978
129.9
10.7
13.9
3.7
4.8
111.2
59.9
29.2
200.3
1979
133.0
10.5
13.9
3.6
4.8
114.3
62.4
30.4
207.2
1980
134.4
10.2
13.7
3.5
4.7
116.0
65.4
32.5
213.9
Sources: Column 1: The consumption of food in 1970 established
prices is computed by multiplying the index of consumption of food
by the 1970 value of 107.9 billion rubles (table 9). The food index is
derived in JEC, Consumption.
Columns 2 and 4: The values for 1950, 1955, 1960, 1966, 1970,
1974, and 1976 are derived by dividing columns 3 and 5,
respectively, by column 1. Intervening years are interpolated by
assuming equal percentage rates of change.The values for 1977-80
are assumed to decrease at an annual rate of 0.25 percentage points
for income in kind (column 2), and 0.1 percentage points for
collective-farm-market sales (column 4).
103
108.0
112.8
118.4
124.7
129.2
133.9
138.4
143.1
147.8
Columns 3 and 5: The values for 1950, 1955, 1960, 1966, 1970,
1974, and 1976 are from tables B-11 and B-12. The values for all
other years are derived as column 1 times columns 2 and 4,
respectively.
Column 6: This is column 1 less columns 3 and 5.
Columns 7 and 8: The base-year (1970) ruble values of consumption
of soft goods and durables are multiplied by our indexes of
consumption of soft goods and durables as derived in JEC,
Consumption. The 1970 values are from table 9.
Column 9: This is the sum of columns 6, 7, and 8.
Column 10: This is the index of column 9.
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Table B-14
1970=100
Derivation of the Wholesale Trade Index
Year
Wood,
Pulp,
and Paper
Construction Light
Materials Industry
Food
Industry
Total
Ferrous
Metals
Non-
ferrous
Metals
Fuels
Machinery Chemicals
1950
22.6
19.0
24.0
21.6
13.0
40.4
14.2
27.8
22.3
23.1
1951
25.6
21.5
26.3
23.7
14.3
45.8
16.1
32.7
25.5
26.2
1952
29.1
24.2
28.1
25.8
15.6
47.6
18.2
34.7
27.9
28.4
1953
31.9
27.0
30.0
28.1
17.2
49.6
21.2
38.1
30.9
31.0
1954
34.8
29.6
33.1
30.6
19.6
54.7
24.7
42.6
33.1
34.0
1955
38.3
34.7
37.6
34.2
22.5
57.6
29.4
45.6
36.2
37.5
1956
41.2
36.8
41.8
36.7
25.3
59.7
32.6
48.3
40.9
40.7
1957
43.7
38.9
46.6
39.2
27.7
63.9
37.9
50.5
43.5
43.5
1958
46.6
41.0
50.9
42.1
31.0
69.9
45.2
54.5
46.8
47.2
1959
50.7
44.4
54.5
45.9
33.7
76.3
52.0
58.7
51.7
51.5
1960
55.1
48.4
57.7
50.1
37.1
76.4
58.3
62.1
54.1
54.9
1961
59.8
52.4
60.6
54.3
40.8
76.3
62.6
64.3
58.1
58.4
1962
64.4
57.1
64.1
59.8
45.1
78.1
65.8
66.6
61.7
62.3
1963
68.4
61.5
69.4
63.7
50.0
81.4
67.6
67.5
64.3
65.4
1964
73.4
65.2
73.9
67.7
56.8
85.1
70.9
69.5
67.7
69.1
1965
78.1
69.9
78.3
71.5
65.3
86.8
75.8
70.7
75.3
73.7
1966
82.9
76.7
83.3
74.7
71.8
87.2
81.2
76.0
78.6
77.8
1967
87.6
83.5
87.7
79.7
79.0
91.5
87.0
82.3
84.4
83.4
1968
91.6
90.2
90.8
86.9
84.7
93.7
90.4
88.8
89.2
88.8
1969
94.8
94.7
94.8
92.9
89.8
95.4
92.2
94.4
94.3
93.7
1970
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1971
103.8
107.0
104.8
108.1
108.1
102.8
106.7
104.5
102.6
105.2
1972
107.3
112.7
109.8
115.6
115.3
104.8
112.3
105.3
105.9
109.6
1973
111.6
119.6
115.1
125.3
125.7
107.7
119.0
108.2
106.7
114.8
1974
116.3
126.9
120.7
136,0
137.7
109.6
124.6
111.1
115.2
122.1
1975
121.5
132.9
127.8
146.4
151.0
113.6
130.2
114.3
121.1
129.1
1976
124.7
137.1
132.5
154.5
158.3
113.4
134.8
119.0
119.7
132.9
1977
125.6
141.3
138.1
163.2
166.6
114.0
137.4
122.1
124.5
138.0
1978
128.4
145.9
142.5
172.4
172.5
113.4
140.7
125.2
123.2
141.7
1979
128.4
150.2
146.7
182.0
172.9
110.2
141.2
127.4
127.2
145.8
1980
128.0
151.4
150.1
190.0
181.9
113.2
142.6
130.0
125.4
148.8
Source: See text.
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Table B-15
Computation of the Weights for the Agricultural Procurement Index
Percentage Share of
Procurement Value
Product
1970 Average
Procurement Price
(rubles per ton)
1970 Procurement
Volume
(thousand tons)
1970 Value of
Procurement
(billion rubles)
Total
NA
NA
50.341
100.0
Grain
97
73,284
7.109
14.1
Potatoes
74
11,233
0.831
1.7
Vegetables
106
10,918
1.157
2.3
Fruit
282
6,180
1.743
3.5
Meat
1,472
12,595
18.540
36.8
Milk
192
45,681
8.771
17.4
Eggs
94a
18,054b
1.697
3.4
Wool
4,651
440.9
2.051
4.1
Silk
5,100
33.7
0.172
0.3
Cotton
555
6,890
3.824
7.6
Flax fiber
2,344
431.4
1.011
2.0
Sugar beets
26
71,385
1.856
3.7
Sunflower seeds
180
4,613
0.830
1.6
Tobacco
2,086
228
0.476
0.9
Makhorka
582
30
0.017
Tea
940
272.7
0.256
0.5
a The price of eggs is 100 rubles per thousand eggs.
b Million eggs.
c Less than 0.05 percent.
Sources: Column 1: See text.
Column 2: See table B-16.
Column 3: This is column 1 times column 2.
Column 4: This was computed from column 3.
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Table B-16
Derivation of the Agricultural Procurement Index
Thousand Tons
Year
Grain
Potatoes
Vegetables
Fruit
Meat
Milk
Eggs
(million)
Wool
1950
32,311
6,906
2,043
597
2,277
8,479
1,912
136.0
1951
33,600
5,195
1,819
796
2,719
9,201
2,147
156.0
1952
34,700
5,554
1,803
995
3,161
9,923
2,382
176.0
1953
31,107
5,422
2,485
1,193
3,604
10,646
2,618
197.0
1954
34,600
6,615
2,974
1,267
3,886
12,076
2,752
224.0
1955
36,901
5,869
3,877
1,341
4,168
13,506
2,886
230.0
1956
54,107
9,206
3,783
1,300
4,449
17,337
3,272
246.0
1957
35,411
7,897
4,162
1,700
5,053
20,454
4,284
281.0
1958
56,600
7,049
4,179
1,900
5,661
22,095
4,536
315.0
1959
46,600
6,826
4,500
1,908
7,508
24,957
5,662
354.0
1960
46,736
7,066
5,105
1,951
7,880
26,311
6,452
357.6
1961
52,109
7,000
5,477
2,303
7,334
28,305
7,376
368.8
1962
56,649
5,680
6,242
2,937
8,564
29,215
8,500
374.5
1963
44,822
8,024
6,347
3,061
9,339
28,541
8,677
380.0
1964
68,275
11,113
7,891
3,415
8,255
31,397
8,296
352.7
1965
36,331
9,946
7,724
4,477
9,280
38,700
10,478
368.5
1966
74,984
9,341
7,954
4,473
10,270
40,069
11,561
380.0
1967
57,234
11,680
9,469
4,680
11,533
42,457
12,890
410.0
1968
69,047
11,724
9,099
6,004
11,927
43,996
14,061
428.8
1969
55,540
10,628
9,638
5,817
11,724
43,782
15,444
401.7
1970
73,284
11,233
10,918
6,180
12,595
45,681
18,054
440.9
1971
64,119
11,482
11,467
6,351
14,163
47,078
21,570
457.4
1972
59,971
11,087
11,234
5,325
15,023
48,443
24,299
451.6
1973
90,529
15,410
14,126
7,793
14,695
52,978
27,544
470.1
1974
73,285
11,156
14,657
7,933
16,187
55,768
30,892
506.8
1975
50,213
14,527
13,883
8,541
16,756
56,296
33,065
510.9
1976
92,127
13,435
16,022
9,684
15,108
56,220
32,897
480.5
1977
68,027
17,122
16,171
9,439
16,286
60,762
36,831
512.1
1978
95,900
14,951
18,374
9,268
17,034
60,368
39,288
528.2
1979
62,834
16,400
18,010
10,827
16,692
58,954
41,050
538.3
1980
69,400
11,100
17,700
10,003
15,900
57,300
43,100
523.0
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Table B-16 (Continued)
Thousand Tons
Year Silk Cotton Flax Sugar
Fiber Beets
Sunflower Tobacco
Seeds
Makhorka Tea
1950
24.8
3,539
174.0
19,705
1,084
59
86
84.9
1951
25.2
3,727
159.0
23,377
1,156
66
85
94.9
1952
25.6
3,780
189.0
21,991
1,346
73
83
97.7
1953
25.9
3,853
145.0
22,891
1,796
81
82
110.0
1954
26.5
4,200
192.0
19,523
1,188
93
68
110.2
1955
24.4
3,881
347.0
30,664
2,316
81
108
121.0
1956
28.1
4,332
427.0
31,457
2,391
79
119
110.0
1957
23.9
4,211
387.0
38,535
1,760
102
88
112.4
1958
28.3
4,340
392.0
51,023
2,615
100
102
138.2
1959
29.6
4,645
333.0
41,369
1,861
112
71
145.7
1960
29.7
4,289
369.0
52,198
2,293
103
70
163.7
1961
28.9
4,518
368.8
47,742
2,923
100
33
161.6
1962
30.6
4,304
394.8
43,946
3,082
102
30
178.9
1963
33.9
5,210
368.5
41,455
3,035
122
28
195.6
1964
33.3
5,285
316.8
76,124
3,933
184
43
193.7
1965
34.8
5,662
432.6
67,500
3,888
169
43
197.0
1966
34.7
5,981
426.3
69,715
4,663
178
38
238.2
1967
36.9
5,970
446.9
81,579
4,867
215
32
234.4
1968
36.1
5,945
355.5
84,168
4,906
215
46
229.0
1969
35.7
5,708
447.2
65,283
4,312
195
39
244.6
1970
33.7
6,890
431.4
71,385
4,613
228
30
272.7
1971
36.7
7,101
461.3
64,329
4,359
230
24
280.2
1972
41.4
7,296
439.1
68,043
3,753
275
17
291.1
1973
39.9
7,664
420.7
77,799
5,553
273
26
305.4
1974
38.7
8,409
364.1
67,484
5,228
292
18
329.9
1975
39.1
7,864
477.7
61,880
3,841
287
9
352.3
1976
45.1
8,278
482.7
85,142
3,770
299
12
375.4
1977
43.1
8,758
440.4
84,869
4,447
300
7
434.2
1978
46.5
8,500
331.9
80,061
4,028
273
7
453.8
1979
47.0
9,161
296.0
69,300
4,225
295
5
480.0
1980
45.0
9,960
247.0
64,400
3,360
260
4
530.0
Sources: The data for all products are from Narkhoz 1978, pp. 203,
224, 229-231, 234-235, and 253-255, and similar tables in Narkhozy
for other years. Data for fruit, meat, milk, eggs, silk, tobacco, and
makhorka for 1951, 1952, and 1954 are interpolated.
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Table B-17 1970=100
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Trade
Year
(1)
Retail
Trade
(2)
Wholesale
Trade
(3) (4)
Agricultural Total
Procurement Trade
1950
23.7
23.1
26.4
23.9
1951
25.3
26.2
28.6
26.0
1952
28.1
28.4
31.0
28.5
1953
31.7
31.0
32.5
31.6
1954
35.2
34.0
35.4
34.9
1955
38.3
37.5
38.8
38.2
1956
41.4
40.7
46.0
41.7
1957
45.6
43.5
45.8
45.1
1958
49.7
47.2
53.9
49.5
1959
52.5
51.5
58.4
52.9
1960
56.4
54.9
60.9
56.5
1961
58.3
58.4
61.8
58.7
1962
61.2
62.3
67.0
62.2
1963
63.7
65.4
68.1
64.7
1964
65.2
69.1
73.4
67.2
1965
69.6
73.7
74.5
71.3
1966
74.7
77.8
86.4
76.9
1967
80.9
83.4
89.8
82.6
1968
87.5
88.8
94.6
88.7
1969
94.0
93.7
90.1
93.5
1970
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1971
104.7
105.2
104.4
104.8
1972
108.0
109.6
106.7
108.3
1973
112.8
114.8
118.3
114.0
1974
118.4
122.1
120.9
119.7
1975
124.7
129.1
118.6
125.1
1976
129.2
132.9
124.3
129.6
1977
133.9
138.0
126.9
134.2
1978
138.4
141.7
133.7
138.7
1979
143.1
145.8
127.5
142.0
1980
147.8
148.8
124.7
145.3
utilities sector supplies all urban customers, not just
households. The weights used to combine the two
components of the sector-of-origin utilities index are:
natural gas, 25.3 percent, and the housing stock, 74.7
percent. The weights used to combine the subindexes
of the repair and personal care and recreation indexes
are derived by disaggregating the value-added compo-
nents of these two sectors and, therefore, differ from
the end-use weights. The weights used are:
Percent
Repair and personal care
100.0
State provided services
79.9
Privately provided services
20.1
Recreation
100.0
Entertainment
51.5
Vacation resorts
14.0
Leisure
34.4
The education and health sector-of-origin indexes are
the man-hour components of the end-use education
and health indexes. The following sections describe
the remaining services-science, credit and insurance,
and government administrative services.
Science
Scope and Coverage. As defined here, science com-
prises the activities of scientific research organiza-
tions subordinate to ministries or the academies of
sciences. More specifically, the organizations included
are: (1) academies, institutes, observatories, archives,
botanical gardens, museums, and libraries engaged in
scientific research; (2) surveying and geological explo-
ration of a general nature; (3) independent design
organizations and selected experimental stations;
(4) hydrometeorological service; and (5) ancillary or-
ganizations servicing scientific organizations, such as
machine-testing stations (Ukazaniya, pp. 757-759).
The sector encompasses the Soviet classification cate-
gory "science and scientific services," for which em-
ployment and wage data are regularly reported. The
activities are financed partly by the state budget and
partly by charges to enterprise costs and profits.
The sector encompasses most but not all Soviet
activity in the area of research and development.
Some of the scientific research done at higher educa-
tional institutions is not included-about 2 percent of
total reported outlays according to B. M. Grinchel',
lzmereniye effectivnosti nauchno-tekhnicheskogo
108
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progressa, Moscow, Ekonomika, 1974, P. 40. Presum-
ably, the associated employment and earnings are
counted in the education sector. Also not included are
research and development activities carried out in the
laboratories and design organizations of individual
producing enterprises (Ibid, pp. 39-40). These expend-
itures are sizable, but are considered a part of the
production activity of each enterprise and are charged
to product costs.
Science is treated as a separate producing sector here
because employment and wage data are given sepa-
rately in Soviet statistics. In the US national accounts
by sector of origin, employment in comparable activi-
ties would be included mainly in the government,
services, and manufacturing sectors. There are no
data on the basis of which to distribute reported
Soviet employment in science among employment
categories comparable to US practice.
The science index is a weighted composite of indexes
of man-hour employment and material inputs. The
inclusion of a materials component in the index is
designed to capture some manufacturing type of
activity, mainly of prototypes or unique custom-built
equipment, that apparently takes place in research
institutes under branch ministries.
Weights. The weights of the man-hour employment
and material-input indexes are the estimated ruble
expenditures for both components in 1970. The
weight for the man-hour employment component
(5.296 billion rubles) is the sum of wages and social
security allowances (table D-7). The weight for the
material-input component (4.463 billion rubles) is
estimated in table B-18 as a part of the material-input
index.
Description of the Index. Man-Hour Employment.
The man-hour employment data, column 4 of table
B-19, are from Stephen Rapawy, Civilian Employ-
ment in the USSR: 1950 to 1978, Washington, D. C.,
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
1980, p. 23 for 1950-78 and extended to 1980 by the
same methodology.
109
Material Inputs. This is a deflated current-price
index. The derivation of the series in current prices is
shown in table B-18. Data in current prices are
available for 1960-72 in Soviet sources. Values for
other years are calculated as estimated shares of
"outlays on science from the state budget and other
sources," which are published in the Narkhoz.
The expenditures on material inputs in current prices
are converted to 1970 prices by a weighted average of
wholesale price indexes for 10 branches of industry
(ferrous metallurgy, coal, oil, electric power, machin-
ery, chemicals, wood products, construction materials,
light industry, and food industry). The weights to
combine the 10 indexes are obtained from the struc-
ture of purchases by science and administration in
1970 published by V. M. Rutgayzer, Resursy razvi-
tiya neproizvodstvenno sfery, Moscow, Mysl', 1975, p.
168. Science purchases were about 86 percent of this
total. All of the price indexes except the one for
machinery are the official indexes published in the
Narkhoz (for example, Narkhoz 1979, p. 164). The
official index for machinery is believed to understate
price increases badly in that branch. Accordingly, an
alternative price index estimated by Abraham Becker
for 1958-70 ("The Price Level of Soviet Machinery in
the 1960s," Soviet Studies 26, July 1974, pp. 363-
379) was used. Estimates for 1950-57 were obtained
by extrapolation on the basis of annual changes given
by the official index. Since 1970, a rate of increase of
1 percent annually was assumed, except for 1971 and
1973, when price reductions were assumed to offset
the general inflationary pressures from other sources.
The resulting aggregate price index and the derivation
of the total science index are shown in table B-19.
Credit and Insurance
Scope and Coverage. This sector includes the activi-
ties of the state bank (Gosbank), the construction bank
(Stroybank), the foreign trade bank, the system of
savings banks, and the insurance enterprises (Ukazan-
p. 760).
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Table B-18
Derivation of the Index of Material
Purchases by Science
Year
(1) (2) (3)
Total Material Total
Material Inputs of Science
Expenditures Science Expenditures
of the as a Percent (billion rubles)
Nonproductive of Total
Sphere Nonproductive
(billion rubles) Material
Expenditures
(4)
Material
Inputs of
Science
(billion rubles)
(5)
Column 4
as a Percent
of Column 3
1950
1.0
0.376
37.6
1951
1.1
0.414
37.6
1952
1.2
0.451
37.6
1953
1.3
0.489
37.6
1954
1.4
0.526
37.6
1955
1.6
0.601
37.6
1956
2.0
0.752
37.6
1957
2.4
0.902
37.6
1958
2.8
1.053
37.6
1959
3.3
1.241
37.6
1960
8.1
18.1
3.9
1.466
37.6
1961
8.5
20.1
4.5
1.708
38.0
1962
9.2
20.9
5.2
1.923
37.0
1963
9.9
21.3
5.8
2.109
36.4
1964
10.7
22.5
6.4
2.407
37.6
1965
11.5
22.6
6.9
2.599
37.7
1966
12.4
23.0
7.5
2.852
38.0
1967
13.4
23.0
8.2
3.082
37.6
1968
14.5
24.0
9.0
3.480
38.7
1969
15.6
24.5
10.0
3.822
38.2
1970
17.3
25.8
11.7
4.463
38.1
1971
18.4
26.5
13.0
4.876
37.5
1972
19.7
27.2
14.4
5.358
37.2
1973
15.7
5.842
37.2
1974
16.5
6.140
37.2
1975
17.4
6.475
37.2
1976
17.7
6.586
37.2
1977
18.3
6.810
37.2
1978
19.3
7.182
37.2
1979
20.2
7.517
37.2
1980
21.5
8.000
37.2
Sources: Column 1: V. M. Rutgayzer, Resursy razvitiya neproiz-
vodstvennoy sfery, Moscow, Mysl', 1975, p. 157.
Column 2: Ibid., p. 158.
Column 3: 1950, 1960, and 1965-79 are from Narkhoz 1975, p. 744,
and similar tables in other issues. 1961-64 are from UNESCO,
Science Policy and Organizations of Research in the USSR, Paris,
UNESCO, 1967, p. 54. 1951-59 are interpolated based partly on
growth rates published in Narkhoz 1959, p. 805. 1980 is from
Tsifrakh 1980, p. 81.
Column 4: 1960-72 are column 1 times column 2. 1950-59 and 1973-
80 are column 3 times column 5.
Column 5: 1960-72 are column 4 divided by column 3. Values for
1950-59 are assumed to be equal to the 1960 value. Values for 1973-
80 are assumed to be equal to the 1972 value.
110
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Table B-19
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Science
Year
(1)
Material Inputs
(billion rubles)
(2)
Price Index for
Material Inputs
of Science
(1970=100)
(3)
Material Inputs
(billion 1970
rubles)
(7)
Index of Science
Expenditures
(1970=100)
(4)
Man-Hour
Employment
(million)
(5)
Wage Income
(billion 1970
rubles)
(6)
Total Science
Expenditures
(billion 1970
rubles)
1950
0.376
135.3
0.278
1,538
1.498
1.775
18.2
1951
0.414
116.6
0.355
1,639
1.596
1.951
20.0
1952
0.451
107.9
0.418
1,737
1.691
2.110
21.6
1953
0.489
100.5
0.486
1,774
1.728
2.214
22.7
1954
0.526
97.2
0.541
1,849
1.800
2.342
24.0
1955
0.601
92.3
0.652
1,952
1.901
2.553
26.2
1956
0.752
87.8
0.856
2,088
2.034
2.890
29.6
1957
0.902
86.3
1.045
2,216
2.158
3.203
32.8
1958
1.053
85.0
1.239
2,454
2.390
3.629
37.2
1959
1.241
85.5
1.451
2,644
2.575
4.026
41.3
1960
1.466
87.2
1.681
3,003
2.924
4.605
47.2
1961
1.708
87.8
1.947
3,286
3.200
5.147
52.7
1962
1.923
88.3
2.178
3,634
3.539
5.717
58.6
1963
2.109
89.1
2.366
3,901
3.799
6.166
63.2
1964
2.407
89.9
2.678
4,140
4.032
6.709
68.7
1965
2.599
90.5
2.872
4,311
4.198
7.070
72.4
1966
2.852
91.3
3.125
4,533
4.414
7.539
77.3
1967
3.082
95.3
3:234
4,744
4.620
7.854
80.5
1968
3.480
98.8
3.522
5,005
4.874
8.396
86.0
1969
3.822
99.1
3.856
5,258
5.120
8.976
92.0
1970
4.463
100.0
4.463
5,438
5.296
9.759
100.0
1971
4.876
100.4
4.857
5,709
5.559
10.417
106.7
1972
1973
5.358
100.4
5.339
6,003
5.846
11.184
114.6
5.842
100.5
5.815
6,299
6.134
11.950
122.4
1974
1975
6.140
100.6
6.103
6,542
6.371
12.474
127.8
6.475
101.0
6.413
6,857
6.678
13.091
134.1
1976
6.586
101.7
6.476
6,984
6.802
13.278
136.0
1977
6.810
102.5
6.646
7,166
6.978
13.624
139.6
1978
7.182
103.3
6.950
7,346
7.154
14.104
144.5
150.7
1979
7.517
104.2
7.212
7,698
7.497
14.709
1980
8.000
104.6
7.645
7,908
7.701
15.346
157.2
Sources: Column 1: See table B-18, column 4.
Column 2: See text.
Column 3: This is column 1 deflated by column 2.
Column 4: See text.
111
Column 5: The 1970 value is from table D-7. All other values are
computed by converting column 4 to index form (1970=100) and
multiplying it by the 1970 value in this column.
Column 6: This is column 3 plus column 5.
Column 7: This is the index of column 6.
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Description of the Index. The index is based on man-
hour employment, which probably understates growth
since the accounting operations that form a large part
of this sector's work have been gradually mechanized.
The data on employment and man-hours are obtained
from Rapawy, Civilian Employment, pp. 2 and 14 for
1950-78 and extended to 1980 by the same method-
ology. These data and the resulting index are shown in
table B-20.
Government Administrative Services
Scope and Coverage. These services represent activi-
ties that are usually financed and treated statistically
as part of the government (nondefense) sector in the
national accounts of Western countries. Soviet statis-
tical practice in the treatment of government types of
activities differs from Western practice. Accordingly,
to obtain a group of activities for the Soviet Union
which are reasonably comparable to the Western
concept of general government, several Soviet statisti-
cal categories had to be combined and others estimat-
ed independently from a variety of information. This
procedure is better than using the single Soviet cate-
gory "apparat of organs of state and economic admin-
istration, administrative organs of cooperative and
social organizations," for which employment and oth-
er types of data are reported but which is extremely
narrow in scope. The problems of reconciling Soviet
and Western concepts and definitions of government
and administrative employment are discussed in some
detail in Stephen Rapawy, Comparison of U.S. and
U.S.S.R. Civilian Employment in Government: 1950-
1969, Washington, D. C., US Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1972, Interna-
tional Population Reports Series P-95, No. 69; and
Gertrude E. Schroeder, "A Critique of Official Statis-
tics on Public Administration in the USSR," ACES
Bulletin 18, Spring 1976, pp. 23-44.
Activities explicitly included in this sector are: general
agricultural programs, forestry, state administration
and the administrative organs of social organizations,
culture, municipal services, and civilian police. Each
of these categories is discussed below. The coverage of
this group is hard to compare with general govern-
ment activities in the United States. Major activities
known to be excluded are upkeep of highways (includ-
ed in transportation) and research and development
(included in science).
Table B-20
Derivation of the Index of Value Added in Credit and
Insurance
Year
(1)
Employment
(thousands)
(2)
Hours Worked
(million)
(3)
Index
(1970=100)
1950
264
571
80.8
1951
263
567
80.3
1952
262
563
79.8
1953
263
564
79.9
1954
264
566
80.1
1955
265
567
80.3
1956
266
555
78.6
1957
261
532
75.3
1958
260
526
74.5
1959
260
512
72.4
1960
265
502
71.0
1961
277
502
71.0
1962
283
513
72.6
1963
289
522
74.0
1964
296
538
76.1
1965
300
541
76.6
1966
313
567
80.3
1967
329
598
84.6
1968
346
630
89.2
1969
363
662
93.8
1970
388
706
100.0
1971
411
753
106.6
1972
439
802
113.6
1973
465
844
119.5
1974
493
897
127.0
1975
519
943
133.5
1976
546
992
140.4
1977
574
1,040
147.3
1978
604
1,095
155.0
1979
632
1,146
162.2
1980
650
1,178
166.8
Sources: Column 1: 1950-78 are from Rapawy, Civilian Employ-
ment, p. 2. 1979 is from Narkhoz 1979, p. 388. 1980 is from
Tsifrakh 1980, p. 161.
Column 2: Rapawy, Civilian Employment, p. 14, was used for 1950-
78, and extended to 1980 by the growth rate of column 1.
Column 3: This is the index of column 2.
112
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Description of the Index. The index of government
administrative services is a weighted average of the
separate measures of man-hour employment in the six
subsectors. The weights for the subsectors are the
value added in each subsector as shown in table D-7.
To the extent that labor productivity has increased,
man-hour employment understates the growth of the
real product rendered by this group of services. An
alternative procedure�to deflate current expendi-
tures on these activities by appropriate price index-
es�cannot be used because there is little information
on nonwage outlays for the sector and suitable price
deflators are not available. The procedure used in US
accounts is to deflate general government expendi-
tures largely by input price indexes. The man-hour
employment data for each subsector are shown in
table B-21.
General Agricultural Program. These programs pro-
vide general services to agriculture and are apparently
financed largely if not entirely from the state budget.
The services include plant and animal disease control,
general veterinary services and inspection, erosion
control and land improvement, management of land
tenure procedures, and the like. Activity is measured
by an index of man-hour employment obtained as
follows:
(1)
Employment is estimated in each year as the
difference between total reported employment in
state agriculture and employment in "state farms,
interfarm economic enterprises, subsidiary and
other productive agricultural enterprises." Data
given in Trud v SSSR, Moscow, Statistika, 1968,
p. 26, suggest that nearly all of this residual group
consists of employees providing veterinary and
other services to agriculture.
(2) The average annual number of man-hours was
assumed to be the same as in state agriculture as a
whole. The latter was calculated for 1950-78 from
data on average annual employment and total
man-hours worked given in Stephen Rapawy,
Civilian Employment, p. 24. The average number
of man-hours in 1979 and 1980 was assumed to be
the same as in 1978.
113
Forestry. This activity encompasses enterprises and
organizations engaged in the management and protec-
tion of state forests and parks; it is financed largely
from the state budget. The man-hour employment
data used to measure this activity are given for 1950-
78 in Rapawy, Civilian Employment, p. 14, and
extended to 1980 by the same methodology.
State Administration and the Administrative Organs
of Social Organization. This activity includes the
operations of state administrative bodies at all levels
(ministries, state committees, and the like), legislative
and judicial organs, administrative organs of state
security and defense, and the administrative organs of
trade unions, the Communist Party and other so-
called social organizations. The activity of this sector
is financed mainly from state budget funds, but also
partly from charges to enterprise costs. Social organi-
zations include the administrative organs of the All-
Union Society of Consumer Cooperatives, the Com-
munist Party and Komsomol, the trade unions and
professional unions, and a number of other groups
that are permitted to function (for example, the Red
Cross, civil defense, and nature societies). Their activ-
ities are financed largely from dues paid by members.
The man-hour employment data used to measure this
activity are given for 1950-78 in Rapawy, Civilian
Employment, p. 14, and extended to 1980 by the same
methodology.
Culture. Public libraries, museums, parks, zoos, clubs,
and children's camps are the principal institutions
covered by this sector. Rapawy published data for
education and culture combined (Civilian Employ-
ment, p. 14). The education component is derived in
JEC, Consumption as part of the consumption index.
The remainder forms the index of culture.
Municipal Services. These services consist mainly of
the upkeep of city streets and municipal facilities,
garbage and trash collection, fire protection, and
similar functions. Activity is measured by an index of
man-hour employment obtained in the "housing-com-
munal economy and personal services" category of
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Table B-21
Million
Man-Hour Employment in Government Administrative Services
Year
General
Agricultural
Services
Forestry
State Adminis- Municipal Services Civilian Police Culture
tration and the
Administrative
Organs of Social
Organizations
1950
748
960
3,979
385
1,425
585
1951
811
977
3,920
400
1,404
605
1952
871
993
3,860
415
1,382
624
1953
797
893
3,723
424
1,333
640
1954
827
862
3,326
432
1,191
668
1955
596
832
2,926
440
1,048
695
1956
650
814
2,814
452
1,007
702
1957
623
768
2,649
456
948
712
1958
739
742
2,631
461
942
730
1959
780
693
2,518
464
901
739
1960
948
680
2,370
473
848
752
1961
856
685
2,358
478
844
776
1962
844
705
2,396
494
858
826
1963
832
721
2,376
513
851
871
1964
863
734
2,472
539
885
930
1965
888
725
2,645
559
947
981
1966
940
741
2,802
586
1,003
1,028
1967
1,029
748
2,987
631
1,069
1,131
1968
1,106
766
3,132
663
1,122
1,246
1969
1,122
777
3,301
695
1,182
1,355
1970
1,121
788
3,363
722
1,204
1,467
1971
1,198
791
3,474
765
1,244
1,569
1972
1,252
810
3,597
802
1,288
1,635
1973
1,301
806
3,712
832
1,329
1,712
1974
1,355
817
3,867
867
1,384
1,805
1975
1,418
823
3,994
899
1,430
1,876
1976
1,547
816
4,080
920
1,461
1,949
1977
1,582
819
4,172
953
1,494
2,059
1978
1,681
830
4,277
994
1,531
2,143
1979
1,746
830
4,392
1,025
1,572
2,190
1980
1,844
834
4,518
1,054
1,617
2,243
Sources: See text.
114
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Soviet employment data. The share of municipal (2)
services in this employment category was estimated at
13 percent in 1970 (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 54). In the
absence of other information, this share was assumed
to be the same in all other years. Man-hour employ-
ment in "housing-communal economy and personal
services" in 1950-78 is given in Rapawy, Civilian
Employment, p. 14, and extended to 1980 by the same
methodology.
Civilian Police. As a category in Soviet annual
statistics on employment in the state sector, civilian
police does not exist. In the 1959 population census
the Soviets explicitly reported employment for "work-
ers in protection of socialist property and public
order"-429,000 persons. The 1970 census does not
list such a category. Whether civilian police (militia)
are included somewhere in the total number in the
state labor force (workers and employees) reported
annually in the statistical handbooks is uncertain.
Civilian police might be: (1) considered to be part of
the armed forces, (2) omitted entirely from unpub-
lished figures on military manpower and from report-
ed data on employment, or (3) included somewhere in
the regularly published annual statistics on state (4)
employment. The first possibility is ruled out for
constructing GNP accounts because of the definition
of armed forces that has been adopted. The second
treatment is possible, but it seems unlikely that the
Soviets would omit them altogether; they are a highly
visible and entirely legitimate activity in a modern
state. The third possibility seems plausible and is the
approach adopted here. The estimate relies in part on
the work of Stephen Rapawy, Comparison of U.S.
and U.S.S.R. Civilian Employment in Government.
The argument supporting this approach is as follows:
(1) A large unexplained residual of employment exists
in the Soviet category "Other branches of materi-
al production." Rapawy estimated this residual at
551,000 in 1966 by deducting from total reported
employment in "other branches of material pro-
duction" the reported employment in component
subgroups. No employment was reported for the
subgroup "interdepartmental guard," which is
classified in "other branches of material produc-
tion" (Ukazaniya, pp. 751-752).
115
(3)
This approach yields an estimate for police em-
ployment that seems appropriate to the size and
extent of urbanization of the USSR and to the
nature of the society. By way of comparison, total
government employment in police protection in
the United States�a much more urban society�
in 1966 was 437,000 (Statistical Abstract of the
United States, Washington, D. C., Government
Printing Office, 1967, p. 439).
To obtain a time series for police employment, the
estimate for 1966 was extrapolated on the as-
sumption that the trend in police employment is
the same as reported for state administration and
the administrative organs of social organizations.
Both groups would be likely to have been affected
by the shakeup in the police and bureaucracy that
occurred during the 1950s; this phenomenon is
reflected in the statistics. This approach yields a
figure of 452,000 for police employment in 1959;
the 1959 census reported 429,000 persons as em-
ployed in "protection of socialist property and
public order."
The alternative to the procedure adopted here is to
assume that the function of police protection is
omitted from Soviet published employment statis-
tics. To account for what is obviously a sizable
activity it would then be necessary to adopt an
arbitrary estimate for the number of police, their
average wages, and other costs and to make an
equally arbitrary assumption about trends over
time. Although arbitrary assumptions are also
involved in the procedure used here, the results
produce a plausible measure of levels and trends in
police protection activity.
The index used to measure police protection activity is
an index of man-hour employment. Average annual
employment was estimated for 1966, as explained
above, and extrapolated on the basis of trends in man-
hour employment in state administration and the
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administrative organs of social organizations. Average
annual man-hours worked by police were assumed to
be the same as for state administration.
Military Personnel
Scope and Coverage
All uniformed personnel of the armed forces�includ-
ing border guards, internal security, construction
troops, and railroad troops�are included in this
activity. It should be noted that substantial definition-
al differences complicate any comparison of the activ-
ities of US and Soviet armed forces.
Description of the Index
Separate indexes are computed in established prices
and factor-cost prices. The index in established prices
is the sum of wages, social security payments, and
outlays for subsistence, all computed in 1970 prices.
The index takes account of changes in the mix of
conscripts, officers, and noncommissioned officers.
For the factor-cost index, the conscript costs are
replaced by an estimate that attempts to allow for the
opportunity cost of conscripts. For this we have used a
minimum industrial wage, which is slightly higher
than expenditures on military pay and subsistence.
Other Branches
The index for this sector is assumed to be equal to the
index for total GNP.
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Appendix C
End-Use Indexes
Consumption
The indexes of consumption are described by Ger-
trude Schroeder and Elizabeth Denton in JEC,
Consumption.
Investment
Investment is the sum of new fixed investment and
capital repair. New fixed investment is the sum of
machinery and equipment (producer durables), new
construction and other capital outlays, and net addi-
tions to livestock.
Soviet investment data are equivalent in concept to
the machinery and equipment and construction and
other capital outlays components of new fixed invest-
ment. The Soviet investment data in each edition of
the Narkhoz are published in "comparable estimate"
prices of some base year (primarily 1955 or 1969).
Western economists have debated about whether
these data are valid measures of the real growth. For
example, Becker used the Soviet data for his constant
price accounts without any discount for inflation
(Becker, Soviet National Income, p. 116). On the
other hand, Nove asserts that the Soviet data so
overstate growth that real investment may actually
have fallen in recent years (Alec Nove, "A Note on
Growth, Investment and Price Indexes," Soviet Stud-
ies, January 1981). The uncertaint: about the official
data has led Western economists to consider alterna-
tive series. In this report, we use one such alternative
for the construction and other capital outlays compo-
nent of new fixed investment. We have not yet found
an acceptable alternative for the machinery and
equipment component. Although our index of indus-
trial production contains a producer durables catego-
ry, it is not a suitable substitute because of problems
relating to foreign trade and inventory changes.
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Machinery and Equipment
Scope and Coverage. Investment in machinery and
equipment includes all expenditures by state enter-
prises and organizations and collective farms. Private
investment is negligible. By the Soviet definition, this
sector now includes the purchase of all new equipment
costing more than 100 rubles and lasting longer than
one year. Capital repair of machinery and equipment
is not included. Soviet investment data do not include
expenditures for certain producer durables by budget-
ary institutions. An estimate of these expenditures in
1970 was made, however, and these purchases are
implicitly assumed to have grown at the same rate as
other purchases of machinery and equipment.
Description of the Index. The index is based on
reported Soviet data on investment in machinery and
equipment. These data are said to be in constant
prices. There is considerable controversy over the
existence and amount of price inflation in the machin-
ery sector. It seems clear from the published data that
the Soviets have made some attempt to account for
price changes in their investment data. Because a
large share of producer durables, perhaps as much as
one-third, consists of unique products, all of the
inflation in the investment data may not have been
eliminated. Nevertheless, it was not possible to con-
struct an alternative series.
Over the years, the Soviets have published investment
data in constant 1955, 1969, and 1973 estimate
prices. In the 1950s the published data excluded
collective farm investment. Table C-1 presents the
published values for state investment and estimates of
collective farm investment. The values in the various
prices are linked to form the index of investment in
machinery and equipment.
Construction and Other Capital Outlays
Scope and Coverage. This sector includes all new
construction of buildings and structures (including
private housing) and certain other expenditures for
design work, geological exploration, and drilling. As
93-892 0 - 82 - 9
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Table C-1
Derivation of the Index of Investment in Machinery and Equipment
Year
(1) (2) (3)
Expenditures in 1955 Prices (billion rubles)
(4)
Expenditures
in 1969 Prices
(billion rubles)
(5)
Expenditures
in 1973 Prices
(billion rubles)
(6)
Index
(1970=100)
Collective Farms
State Organizations Total
1950
0.2
3.0
3.2
13.5
1951
0.2
3.0
3.2
13.5
1952
0.2
3.2
3.4
14.8
1953
0.3
3.3
3.6
15.6
1954
0.3
4.0
4.3
18.4
1955
0.5
4.8
5.3
22.5
1956
0.6
6.0
6.6
28.3
1957
0.6
6.7
7.3
31.1
1958
0.9
7.4
8.3
35.2
1959
1.0
7.9
8.9
38.1
1960
1.0
8.9
9.9
42.2
1961
0.9
9.9
10.8
11.6
45.9
1962
1.1
11.0
12.1
13.1
51.6
1963
1.3
12.1
13.4
14.5
57.0
1964
1.5
13.7
15.2
16.4
64.8
1965
1.7
14.6
16.3
17.5
16.9
69.3
1966
17.2
18.5
73.4
1967
18.6
19.9
78.7
1968
20.3
21.5
84.8
1969
20.9
22.5
88.9
1970
25.3
24.4
100.0
1971
26.6
25.7
105.3
1972
28.8
27.8
113.9
1973
31.1
29.9
122.5
1974
34.1
32.9
134.8
1975
38.5
37.1
152.0
1976
40.7
166.8
1977
43.0
176.2
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Table C-1 (Continued)
Year
(6)
Index
(1970=100)
(1) (2) (3)
Expenditures in 1955 Prices (billion rubles)
(4)
Expenditures
in 1969 Prices
(billion rubles)
(5)
Expenditures
in 1973 Prices
(billion rubles)
Collective Farms State Organizations Total
1978
46.6
191.0
1979
48.6
199.2
1980
50.9
208.6
Sources: Column 1: 1950-55 are estimated by assuming that the
share of machinery and equipment in total kolkhoz investment was
constant. Total kolkhoz investment in machinery and equipment for
1951-55 is derived as total investment in machinery and equipment
(19.8 billion rubles�Narkhoz 1969, p. 502) less non-kolkhoz
investment in machinery and equipment (18.3 billion rubles�
Narkhoz 1965, p. 529). Annual data on total kolkhoz investment are
from Kapital'noye stroitel'stvo v SSSR, Moscow, Gosstatizdat,
1961, p.40; and Narkhoz 1965, p. 536. The implied share of
machinery and equipment in kolkhoz investment for 1951-55 is 22
percent. This share is assumed to hold for 1950 also. 1956-60 are
first estimated by multiplying the share of machinery and equipment
in total agricultural investment (Kapital'noye stroitel'stvo, p. 159)
by total kolkhoz investment. These estimates are
with investment in machinery and equipment, the
Central Statistical Administration may not have com-
pletely eliminated inflation from the construction
statistics. Measurement of the real change in con-
struction has proved troublesome in Western econo-
mies as well as in the Soviet Union. In the United
States, price deflators are used based on certain types
of standard construction projects, but it is suspected
that the real growth of investment in construction has
been significantly understated.
Description of the Index. Because of the Soviet
definition of its construction sector, an independent
index of the construction component of investment
can be estimated. The Soviets define the entire output
of the construction sector as capital expenditures.
Therefore, our sector-of-origin index of the output of
the construction sector in constant prices, described in
appendix B, represents the growth of new construction
and other capital outlays plus capital repair of build-
ings and structures. In order to derive the index of
new construction and other capital outlays, we first
119
then adjusted to agree with control totals for 1956-58 and 1959-60.
Kolkhoz investment in machinery and equipment for 1956-58 and
1959-60 are derived from data in Strana soveta za 50 let, Moscow,
Statistika, 1967, pp. 198-199; Narkhoz 1969, p. 502; and Narkhoz
1965, p. 529. 1961-65 are calculated as column 3 less column 2.
Column 2: This is from Narkhoz 1965, p. 529.
Column 3: 1950-60 are column 1 plus column 2. 1961-69 are from
Narkhoz 1969, p. 502.
Columns 4 and 5: These are from Narkhoz 1975, p. 503, and similar
tables in other issues.
Column 6: This was derived by linking the data in columns 3, 4, and
5. Data for 1961-64 and 1966-69 are derived from column 4, and
data for 1950-60 are derived from column 3.
estimate capital repair expenditures on buildings and
structures in current prices (see below) and then
subtract that series from the Soviet published values
on the gross output of the construction sector in
current prices. The result is an estimate of new
construction and other capital outlays in current
prices. Both component series are then deflated by the
implicit price index obtained by comparing our index
of construction output in constant prices with the
Soviet gross output series in current prices. Table C-2
shows the derivation of our estimated series on new
construction and other capital outlays in current
prices and in 1970 prices. Our estimates in 1970
prices are also compared with Narkhoz data in 1969
prices (column 5) and an implicit price index is derived
(column 6). The series in 1970 prices shows slower
growth over the 1961-78 period (4.9 percent per year
versus 5.8 percent). The relationship is not consistent,
however, as the implicit price index declines in several
years.
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Table C-2
Derivation of Investment in
New Construction and Other Capital Outlays
Year (1) (2)
Gross Output Capital Repair
of Construction of Buildings
Sector and Structures
(billion rubles) (billion rubles)
(3)
Investment in
New Construction
and Other
Capital Outlays
(billion rubles)
(4)
Investment in
New Construction
and Other
Capital Outlays
(billion 1970 rubles)
(5)
Investment in
New Construction
and Other
Capital Outlays
(billion 1969 rubles)
(6)
Implicit Price
Index
(1970=100)
1950
12.1
1.2
10.9
12.4
NA
NA
1951
13.6
1.3
12.3
14.2
NA
NA
1952
15.3
1.3
14.1
15.9
NA
NA
1953
16.1
1.4
14.7
17.5
NA
NA
1954
18.2
1.6
16.5
19.4
NA
NA
1955
18.4
2.0
16.4
21.5
NA
NA
1956
20.3
2.7
17.7
22.8
NA
NA
1957
22.6
3.3
19.3
24.9
NA
NA
1958
25.7
3.8
21.9
28.1
NA
NA
1959
29.2
4.2
25.0
31.7
NA
NA
1960
31.9
4.5
27.4
34.2
NA
NA
1961
32.7
4.8
27.9
35.8
32.2
94.9
1962
33.6
4.9
28.7
37.5
32.8
92.2
1963
34.7
5.1
29.6
38.9
33.8
91.6
1964
36.6
5.5
31.0
40.6
36.2
94.0
1965
40.3
5.6
34.7
43.8
39.5
95.1
1966
43.0
6.2
36.8
45.6
42.5
98.3
1967
50.0
6.6
43.4
49.8
46.1
97.6
1968
53.0
6.9
46.1
52.5
49.7
99.8
1969
60.0
7.4
52.6
55.1
51.1
97.8
1970
67.6
7.8
59.8
59.8
56.7
100.0
1971
74.7
8.8
65.9
63.6
61.4
101.8
1972
77.4
9.3
68.1
66.8
65.5
103.4
1973
80.9
10.1
70.8
70.3
67.6
101.4
1974
86.4
11.2
75.2
73.5
71.6
102.7
1975
91.7
12.4
79.3
76.7
76.4
105.1
1976
94.2
13.5
80.7
78.5
77.9
104.7
1977
96.2
14.7
81.5
79.5
79.9
107.3
1978
99.2
16.0
83.2
81.0
83.8
109.1
1979
NA
NA
NA
83.3
NA
NA
1980
NA
NA
NA
84.7
NA
NA
Sources: Column 1: See table B-3, column 1.
Column 2: See text.
Column 3: This is column 1 less column 2.
Column 4: This is column 3 deflated by the price index derived in
table B-3, column 4. Figures for 1979 and 1980 are estimated using
the growth rate of the gross output of total construction in 1970
prices (table B-3, column 2), and the assumption that the growth rate
of capital repair expenditures is double that of new construction and
other capital outlays.
Column 5: See Narkhoz 1972, p. 474, and similar tables in other
issues.
Column 6: This is derived from a comparison of columns 4 and 5.
120
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Net Additions to Livestock
This index is derived by Margaret Hughes and Barba-
ra Severin in JEC, Agriculture.
Capital Repair
Scope and Coverage. This sector includes the capital
repair of machinery and equipment and of buildings
and structures. It defies comparison with similar
activities in US or other Western GNP accounts
because much of the comparable activity evidently is
either charged to current expenses or included with
new fixed investment in Western statistics.
Description of the Index. The index is the sum of two
deflated current-price series�capital repair of ma-
chinery and equipment and capital repair of buildings
and structures. Both series are derived in an unpub-
lished working paper by Scot Butler ("The Growth of
Capital Repair in the USSR, 1950-77"). First total
capital repair expenditures are estimated, based main-
ly on current-price amortization deductions for capital
repair. A series on capital repair of buildings and
structures is then derived based mainly on budgetary
expenditure data. Using estimated expenditures in
1970, the two indexes are converted to 1970 ruble
values, and expenditures for capital repair of machin-
ery and equipment are derived as a residual.
The two components of capital repair are deflated
separately to constant 1970 prices. The price deflator
for total construction (table B-3, column 4) is used
also for capital repair of buildings and structures.
Expenditures for capital repair of machinery and
equipment are deflated by a price index based on a
comparison of the gross output of the machinery
sector in current and constant prices. The current-
price series for machinery output is built up from data
on wages, social security deductions, the ratio of
wages and social security deductions to production
costs, and profits. The index of machinery output in
constant prices is derived in the same manner as the
index of the value added in the machinery sector
(described by Ray Converse in JEC, Industry), but
gross output weights are used to combine the various
machinery subsector indexes rather than value-added
weights. The deflated machinery capital repair series
and the derivation of the total capital repair series are
shown in table C-3.
121
Other Government Expenditures
Government Administrative Services
The indexes used to measure this activity are the same
as those used for the sector-of-origin indexes. Theoret-
ically, a separate measure of real trends in material
purchases should be added to the measure of trends in
employment. Despite a considerable amount of re-
search, it has not proved feasible to produce reliable
estimates of material purchases, nor can a suitable
price deflator be obtained. According to one Soviet
estimate, material expenditures in administration in
current prices increased at about the same rate as
man-hour employment during 1960-72 (V. M. Rut-
gayzer, Resursy razvitiya neproizvodstvennoy sfery,
pp. 157-158). The weights used to combine the subsec-
tor indexes are the end-use expenditures in 1970.
Research and Development
This index is the same as that used for science as a
sector of origin.
Outlays Not Elsewhere Classified (n.e.c.)
The item is derived as a residual by subtracting all
identified end-use components from total GNP de-
rived from the sector-of-origin data.
Defense
As stated in the main report, defense expenditures are
not computed as a separate component of GNP by
end use because it is believed that other components,
primarily investment and research and development,
include substantial amounts of defense expenditures.
The CIA does periodically estimate the cost of Soviet
defense activities based on a detailed list of the
physical elements of their defense programs and ruble
values derived from a variety of sources. Using data in
this report, we have converted these estimates to
factor-cost prices. Table C-4 shows these estimates as
ranges.
Although it has not been possible to integrate the
estimates of total defense expenditures with our GNP
data, we have made some sample calculations based
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Table C-3
Derivation of the Index of Capital Repair Expenditures
Year
(1)
Capital Repair
of Machinery
and Equipment
(current prices)
(2)
Machinery
Price
Index
(1970=100)
(3)
Capital Repair
of Machinery
and Equipment
(billion 1970 rubles)
(4)
Capital Repair
of Buildings
and Structures
(billion 1970 rubles)
(5)
Total Capital Repair
(billion 1970 rubles)
1950
1.5
NA
1.6
1.4
3.0
1951
1.6
NA
1.8
1.5
3.3
1952
1.8
NA
2.1
1.4
3.6
1953
2.1
NA
2.3
1.7
4.0
1954
2.2
NA
2.4
1.9
4.4
1955
2.3
86.6
2.6
2.6
5.3
1956
2.1
NA
2.8
3.5
6.3
1957
2.1
NA
3.0
4.2
7.2
1958
2.3
69.9
3.3
4.9
8.1
1959
3.1
73.4
4.2
5.3
9.5
1960
3.4
77.2
4.5
5.6
10.1
1961
3.8
81.0
4.7
6.1
10.9
1962
4.4
80.4
5.5
6.4
11.9
1963
5.7
82.9
6.9
6.7
13.6
1964
6.2
83.1
7.4
7.3
14.7
1965
7.0
83.2
8.5
7.1
15.6
1966
7.6
90.4
8.4
7.7
16.1
1967
8.3
94.0
8.8
7.5
16.4
1968
9.1
95.9
9.5
7.8
17.4
1969
10.1
98.0
10.3
7.7
18.0
1970
11.2
100.0
11.2
7.8
19.0
1971
12.2
96.1
12.6
8.5
21.2
1972
13.7
97.7.
14.0
9.1
23.1
1973
15.2
93.5
16.2
10.0
26.2
1974
16.5
94.6
17.4
11.0
28.4
1975
15.3
96.1
15.9
12.0
27.9
1976
16.4
93.8 .
17.5
13.1
30.6
1977
17.5
93.6
18.7
14.4
33.1
1978
18.6
95.5
19.4
15.6
35.1
1979
19.5
96.6
20.2
15.8
36.1
1980
20.6
97.6
21.1
16.5
37.6
Sources: Columns 1 and 2: See text. Data are not available to
calculate the current-price machinery series for 1950-54 and 1956-
57 and, hence, the price index.
Column 3: This is column 1 deflated by the price index in column 2.
The values for 1950-54 and 1956-57 are estimated by using a series
of expenditures for capital repair of machinery and equipment in
1937 prices derived from data estimated by Moorsteen and Powell,
The Soviet Capital Stock, 1928-1962, pp. 386-387.
Column 4: This is table C-2, column 2, deflated by the price index in
table B-3, column 4.
Column 5: This is column 3 plus column 4.
122
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Table C-4
Estimated Soviet Defense
Expenditures, 1951-80
Billion 1970 Rubles,
Factor-Cost Prices
Year
Upper Bound
Lower Bound
1951
33
19
1952
33
20
1953
30
19
1954
31
20
1955
36
24
1956
34
23
1957
30
21
1958
30
22
1959
29
22
1960
31
23
1961
34
26
1962
38
29
1963
39
31
1964
42
34
1965
43
35
1966
44
36
1967
47
39
1968
50
42
1969
52
43
1970
53
44
1971
54
45
1972
56
46
1973
58
48
1974
62
51
1975
65
53
1976
69
56
1977
70
56
1978
72
57
1979
75
59
1980
79
62
123
on assumptions about the proportions of the identified
components of GNP which might represent defense
expenditures. These calculations indicate that the
independent estimates of defense expenditures are
reasonably consistent with our GNP data.
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Appendix D
Revised 1970 GNP Accounts
in Established Prices
The original estimate of Soviet GNP for 1970 was
documented in CIA, GNP 1970. This appendix revises
that estimate by incorporating new information and
reinterpreting some old evidence. The basic account-
ing structure is unchanged. The first part of this
appendix summarizes the most important changes we
have made in the four basic accounts (household
incomes and outlays and public-sector incomes and
outlays) and the consequent changes in the combina-
tion of those accounts to form GNP. The rest of the
appendix consists of the revised basic tables which
comprise the GNP accounts, several supporting ta-
bles, and detailed sources for all tables.
Household Incomes
There are three significant revisions to the estimate of
household incomes (table D-1). First, total income,
which is determined by total outlays, is 1.7 billion
rubles lower than in CIA, GNP 1970. Second, mili-
tary subsistence has been revised upward by 1.2
billion rubles. Third, the first two revisions plus other,
smaller changes mean that the unidentified money
income residual has been reduced by 3.6 billion
rubles. The residual is determined as total outlays less
all identified incomes.
In addition there have been numerous small changes.
In particular, earnings in the various private services
have been reestimated. Included is an increase in
private earnings in health and education from 1 to 5
percent of the wage bills of state health and education
based on reports of widespread private activities of
this type. There is one small change in the accounting
structure of household incomes from that published in
CIA, GNP 1970. The profits distributed to consumer
cooperative members are now considered to be a
transfer receipt rather than earned income. This
change does not affect the value of GNP because
these profits are now reflected as an income of the
public sector.
125
Household Outlays
Household outlays are 1.7 billion rubles lower than in
CIA, GNP 1970 (table D-2). The lower total is mainly
the result of reductions in our estimates of household
expenditures for goods, transportation, private hous-
ing construction, and recreation. Offsetting these
reductions are upward revisions of estimated expendi-
tures for repair and personal care, health, and educa-
tion services and for military subsistence.
Expenditures for goods have been reduced by 2.1
billion rubles to eliminate expenditures for second-
hand goods in commission stores, business travel, and
materials which are also included in the cost of
certain repair services.
Transportation expenditures have been reduced by 25
percent, or 1.8 billion rubles, to eliminate business
travel expenditures. The value of private housing
construction reported in the Narkhoz was previously
thought to be in 1955 prices and was adjusted to 1970
prices. We now believe that it is reported in current
prices. This reinterpretation reduces investment ex-
penditures by 0.3 billion rubles. Expenditures on
hotels (part of recreation expenditures) have been
reduced by 0.1 billion rubles to eliminate business
travel expenditures.
Household expenditures for repair and personal care
services were increased to include the value of materi-
als used for the repair and custom making of clothing
and knitted goods. At the same time deductions were
made to eliminate sales to enterprises of all repair and
personal care services. The net increase in household
outlays for repair and personal care services is 0.8
billion rubles. Household expenditures for health and
education and the value of military subsistence were
all increased in the same manner as household in-
comes from these sources.
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Trade union and other dues were considered an
element of consumption in CIA, GNP 1970. They are
now classified as a transfer outlay since the dues are
used mainly to finance social-cultural and administra-
tive activities rather than to provide services to mem-
bers of the trade unions and other organizations. This
change does not affect total household outlays or total
GNP, but it does lower total consumption
expenditures.
Public-Sector Incomes
Public-sector incomes have increased 6.7 billion ru-
bles (table D-3). The most important changes are:
(1) the addition of several charges to enterprise costs
for special funds (2.1 billion rubles), (2) an increase in
the miscellaneous charges component of taxes and
other payments to the budget (1.6 billion rubles),
(3) the deletion of the subsidy on milk products (0.8
billion rubles), and (4) the addition of trade union and
other dues to transfer receipts (2.1 billion rubles).
The charges to enterprise costs represent funds col-
lected to support expenditures on certain components
of GNP by end use (for example, science expendi-
tures) which are charged to current expenses in the
Soviet accounting system. The information on the
number of these funds and their size, however, is
sparse. The likelihood of large percentage errors in
these estimates remains.
The method used to estimate the miscellaneous
charges component of taxes and other payments to the
budget has been completely revised. Although the
revised value is 1.6 billion rubles higher than in CIA,
GNP 1970, it actually has been reduced because we
now explicitly include income earned from foreign
trade. This item, 7.6 billion rubles, was previously
excluded from GNP. Foreign trade income results
from the differences between the domestic prices of
traded goods and their equivalent foreign trade prices.
We now consider the price differences to be equiva-
lent to a tax or subsidy and, in agreement with
Western accounting practices, include the income as a
part of GNP.
The subsidy on milk products was deleted because
new information indicates it is netted against the
value of profits reported in the Narkhoz. Trade union
and other dues are now considered as a transfer
payment as described above.
Public-Sector Outlays
Total income provides the control total for the public
sector and, therefore, public-sector outlays have also
risen 6.7 billion rubles (table D-4). There have been
substantial structural changes in addition to the in-
creased total. Expenditures for communal and admin-
istrative services have decreased by 6.0 billion rubles
while investment outlays increased 4.6 billion rubles
and outlays n.e.c. increased 7.4 billion rubles.
Expenditures on communal services (education,
health, and physical culture) are estimated by a new
methodology and are considerably lower than the
estimates published in CIA, GNP 1970. Previously we
used Narkhoz data relating to expenditures on sum-
mary groups of services from the budget and other
sources. Because of many ambiguities in these data
and the discovery that they include imputed deprecia-
tion charges of unknown size, we now estimate expen-
ditures for communal services as the sum of wages,
social insurance, and other current outlays. In addi-
tion, expenditures for art have been deleted because
they already were included with recreation expendi-
tures, and expenditures for physical culture were
reduced to account for the trade union subsidy on
resort passes.
Expenditures for government administrative services
have been reduced by 0.9 billion rubles. Most of this
amount is the result of a decision to lower the share of
other current outlays in total expenditures from one-
third to one-fourth.
Investment expenditures have been increased by 4.6
billion rubles. The primary changes are the addition
of an estimate for the acquisition of equipment by
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budget institutions and a revised method for estimat-
ing the value of new construction and other capital
outlays. In addition, smaller revisions were made to
the value of net additions to livestock inventories and
capital repair expenditures.
Outlays n.e.c., determined as total public-sector in-
comes less identified public-sector outlays, is 7.4
billion rubles larger than in CIA, GNP 1970. The
revised accounting of foreign trade income, however,
means that net exports, a component of outlays n.e.c.,
are now valued in foreign trade prices. As a result, the
portion of outlays n.e.c. which might be associated
with defense expenditures, changes in strategic re-
serves, or a statistical discrepancy is virtually un-
changed from that computed in CIA, GNP 1970
(p. 16).
GNP by End Use
The GNP of the Soviet Union is estimated by combin-
ing the relevant portions of the outlays of the house-
hold and public sectors (table D-5). As a result of the
changes made in these accounts, total GNP is now 2.5
billion rubles higher than calculated in CIA, GNP
1970. The changes in the important components of
GNP by end use are shown in the following
tabulation:
GNP by End Use
(percent)
Original
Estimate
Current
Estimate
Consumption
57.7
55.1
Goods
44.0
43.4
Services
13.7
11.6
Investment
31.6
32.5
Other government expenditures
10.8
12.5
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GNP by Sector of Origin
The growth of GNP in 1970 prices is measured as an
aggregation of the growth rates of the various sectors
of origin. In order to compute the growth of GNP, it is
necessary to estimate how much of each type of
income (table D-6) was earned in each sector of origin
(table D-7). Tables D-8 through D-16 show the distri-
bution of each type of income by sector of origin.
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Table D-1
Billion Rubles
Soviet Household Incomes, 1970
I. State wages and salaries 132.032
2. Net income of households from agriculture 41.709
a. Money wage payments by collective farms 14.453
(I) Payments to collective farm members
(2) Payments to hired workers
b. Net income from sales of farm products
c. Net farm income in kind
(1) Consumption in kind
(2) Investment in kind
3. Income of the armed forces
a. Military pay and allowances
14.040
0.413
8.314
18.942
18.347
0.595
6.580
3.380
b. Military subsistence 3.200
4. Other money income currently earned and 10.598
statistical discrepancy
a. Private money income currently earned
(1) Private earnings in construction
(2) Private earnings in services
(a) Housing repair
3.134
0.290
2.844
0.804
(b) Other private repair and personal care 0.836
services
(c) Private room rentals
(d) Education
(e) Health
b. Unidentified money income and statistical
discrepancy
0.484
0.470
0.250
7.464
5. Imputed net rent 1.080
6. Imputed value of owner-supplied 0.579
construction services
7. Total income currently earned 192.578
8. Transfer receipts 24.628
a. Pensions and allowances 22.300
b. Stipends 1.300
c. Interest income 1.035
d. Net new bank loans to households -0.034
e. Profits distributed to 0.027
consumer cooperative members
9. Total income
217.206
Sources to this table:
1. State wages and salaries are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 23.
2. Net income of households from agriculture
a. Money wage payments by collective farms.
(1) Payments to collective farm members are from CIA, GNP 1970,
p. 23.
(2) Payments to hired workers are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 23.
b. Net income from sales offarm products. This item (8.314 billion
rubles) is derived as the difference between gross income from the
sale of farm products (9.238 billion rubles-CIA, GNP 1970, p. 23)
and purchases of materials and services (0.924 billion rubles-Ibid).
c. Net farm income in kind.
(1) Consumption in kind is from CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 24-25.
(2) Investment in kind, a monetary valuation of the net additions to
private livestock inventories, is estimated at 0.595 billion rubles on
the basis of the change in numbers of cattle, hogs, sheep and goats,
and poultry and the estimated average realized price per head for
each animal. The calculation is presented below:
Valuation of the Net Additions
to Private-Sector Livestock
Inventories, 1970
(1) (2)
Inventory of
Animals
(thousand head)
(3) (4) (5)
Net Additions
to Livestock
Inventories
End End
1969 1970
Thou-
sand
Head
Rubles
Per
Head
Billion
Rubles
Cattle
24,989
24,953
-36
442
-0.016
Hogs
13,830
16,562
2,732
173
0.473
Sheep and
goats
31,665
33,180
1,515
37
0.056
Poultry
360,126
376,480
16,354
5
0.082
Total
0.595
Sources: All data are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 57, except for
poultry. The poultry inventory data are from Selkhoz 1971, p. 273.
The poultry price is derived by Margaret Hughes and Barbara
Severin in JEC, Agriculture, p. 51.
3. Income of the armed forces
a. Military pay. This is a CIA estimate.
b. Military subsistence. This is a CIA estimate.
4. Other money income currently earned and statistical discrepancy
a. Private money income currently earned.
(1) Private earnings in construction (0.290 billion rubles) are based
on total expenditures for private housing construction (1.636 billion
rubles-Narkhoz 1972, p. 486) and assumptions about the distribu-
tion of those expenditures. Contrary to the view expressed in CIA,
' GNP 1970, p. 43 we now believe that the reported value for private
housing construction is in current prices rather than 1955 prices.
Private housing is constructed by state organizations and by
private groups. The value of state-provided private housing construc-
tion and repair services in 1970 was 394.7 million rubles (Narkhoz
1972, p. 621). This value is believed to include sales to enterprises, as
do the reported sales of other state-provided services. They probably
represent repairs done for enterprises without their own repair crews.
Based on data published by V. I. Dmitriev (Metodologicheskiye
osnovy prognozirovaniya sprosa na bytovyye uslugi, Moscow,
Legkaya Industriya, 1975, p. 98), sales to enterprises are estimated
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at 5 percent of state-provided services, or 19.7 million rubles. The
remainder (375.0 million rubles) are sales to households. These sales
are arbitrarily divided roughly equally between new construction
and repair. The resulting distribution of state-provided private
housing construction and repair services is as follows:
Million Rubles
Total sales
394.7
Sales to enterprises
19.7
Sales to households
375.0
Housing repair
187.0
New construction
188.0
Privately provided private housing construction is calculated as total
private housing construction (1.636 billion rubles) less state-provided
private housing construction (0.188 billion rubles), or 1.448 billion
rubles. Of this amount, 60 percent is assumed to be labor payments
and 40 percent, materials. The labor payments are further assumed
to be one-third hired labor and two-thirds owner-supplied construc-
tion services. The resulting distribution of private housing construc-
tion expenditures is:
Billion Rubles
Total private housing construction expenditures
1.636
State-provided construction
0.188
�
Privately provided construction
1.448
Materials
0.579
Labor payments
0.869
Private earnings in construction
0.290
Owner-supplied construction services
0.579
(2)Private earnings in services
(a) Housing repair earnings (0.804 billion rubles) are estimated as
total expenditures on housing repair less purchases of state-provided
services and of materials used in privately provided repair services.
Household expenditures for housing repair are estimated at 1.258
billion rubles (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 41). Purchases from state
enterprises were estimated above in item 4,a,(1) at 0.187 billion
rubles; this figure implies that purchases of privately supplied
housing repair services were 1.071 billion rubles. Of this amount,
expenditures for materials are estimated at 0.267 billion rubles.
Private earnings in housing repair are calculated as a residual (1.071
billion rubles less 0.267 billion rubles).
The material expenditures of 0.267 billion rubles are determined
as total retail sales of construction materials to households (1.221
billion rubles-CIA, GNP 1970, p. 39) less other uses of those
materials. Construction materials purchased by households are
assumed to be used for privately provided housing repair, for state-
provided private housing repair and construction, and for privately
provided housing construction. In item 4,a,(1) above the materials
used in privately provided housing construction were estimated at
129
0.579 billion rubles. As with other services included in the retail
trade statistics, the entire value of state-provided housing construc-
tion and repair services is assumed to be included in the listed
purchases of construction materials. The residual retail sales of
construction materials to households are 0.267 billion rubles:
Total retail sales of construction materials to
households
Billion Rubles
1.221
Less:
Materials used in privately provided new 0.579
housing construction
Materials used in state-provided private 0.375
housing repair and construction services
Equals:
Materials used in privately provided housing 0.267
repair services
(b) Other private repair and personal care earnings (0.836 billion
rubles) are estimated at 90 percent of household expenditures on
these services. Expenditures (0.929 billion rubles) are derived as the
difference between total household expenditures on privately provid-
ed services (2.0 billion rubles-CIA, GNP 1970, p. 42), and
expenditures on privately provided housing repair services (1.071
billion rubles-item 4,a,(2),(a) above).
(c)Private room rental earnings are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 42.
(d) Education earnings (0.470 billion rubles) are equal to household
expenditures for private educational services, which are assumed to
be 5 percent of the state wage bill for education. The state wage bill
(9.400 billion rubles) is derived in item 1,a of table D-4.
(e) Health earnings (0.250 billion rubles) are equal to household
expenditures for private health services, which are assumed to be 5
percent of the state wage bill for health. The state wage bill (5.004
billion rubles) is derived in item 1,b of table D-4.
b. Unidentified money income and statistical discrepancy. This item
is derived as the difference between total income (item 9, below) and
the sum of items 1; 2; 3; 4,a; 5; 6; and 8.
5. Imputed net rent. This is from CIA, GNP 1970, p.41.
6. Imputed value of owner-supplied construction services. See item
4,a,(1)above.
7. Total income currently earned. This was derived as the sum of
items 1 through 6.
8. Transfer receipts
a. Pensions and allowances. See Narkhoz 1972, p. 535.
b. Stipends. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 26.
c. Interest income. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 26.
d. Net new bank loans to households. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 26.
e. Profits distributed to consumer cooperative members. See CIA,
GNP 1970, p. 23.
9. Total income. This is equal to total outlays (table D-2, item 8).
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Table D-2
Soviet Household Outlays, 1970
Billion Rubles
I. Retail sales of goods for consumption
144.931
a. State, cooperative, and commission sales
141.096
(1) Food
84.104
(2) Soft goods
42.734
(3) Durables
14.258
b. Collective farm ex-village market sales
3.835
(1) Food
3.617
(2) Soft goods
0.218
2. Consumer services
23.337
a. Housing
3.429
(1) Gross rent
2.733
(2) Repair
0.696
b. Other services
19.908
(1) Utilities
3.478
(2) Transportation
5.400
(3) Communications
1.200
(4) Repair and personal care
5.497
(5) Recreation
2.547
(6) Education
1.441
(7) Health
0.345
3. Consumption in kind
21.547
a. Farm consumption in kind
18.347
(1) Food
18.235
(2) Soft goods
0.112
b. Military subsistence
3.200
(1) Food
1.970
(2) Soft goods
1.230
4. Total outlays for consumption
189.815
5. Investment
2.231
a. Private housing construction
1.636
b. Farm investment in kind
0.595
6. Total outlays for consumption and investment
192.046
7. Transfer outlays
25.160
a. Net savings
9.720
b. Direct taxes
12.737
c. Other payments to the state
2.703
8. Total outlays
217.206
Sources to this table:
I. Retail sales o f goods for consumption
a. State, cooperative, and commission sales.
Total sales to households of consumption goods are estimated as
follows:
Billion Rubles
Total state and cooperative retail sales, including 155.208
commission sales
Less:
Sales to institutions 7.177
Producer goods sold to farm households
Construction materials sold to households
Kerosene
0.462
1.221
0.131
Film rentals
Commission sales and sales to rental agencies
Business travel expenditures
Services included in retail sales
Equals:
0.195
0.699
0.301
3.926
Sales of goods to households for consuption 141.096
The values for all items are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 39 except for
commission sales and sales to rental agencies, business travel
expenditures, and services included in retail sales. An arbitrary
deduction of 1.0 billion rubles is made to cover sales of secondhand
goods in commission stores, sales to rental agencies, and purchases of
restaurant meals by persons on business travel. These items are
known to be included in reported retail sales, but their amounts are
unknown. It is further assumed that the latter is equal to 2 percent of
the reported sales of public catering establishments (15.033 billion
rubles-Narkhoz 1972, p. 578), or 0.301 billion rubles. This amount
was subtracted from the 1.0-billion-ruble total to obtain the value for
sales of secondhand goods in commission stores and sales to rental
agencies.
The values of services included in retail trade have been modified
from those listed in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 39, as follows:
� Sales of laundry and photo services have been added because they
are classified as productive services (Ukazaniya, pp. 763-764).
� Sales of housing construction and repair services have been deleted
because they are believed to be included in the reported retail sales
of construction materials, which are deducted as a separate item in
the list above.
� The values published in the Narkhoz for the repair and tailoring of
clothing and the repair of knitwear were doubled to account for the
materials used by these services. These materials are included in
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retail sales data but not in the reported sales of the services. A com-
parison of the reported sales of these two items with and without
materials (Narkhoz 1968, p. 664; and Narkhoz 1969, p. 660) shows
that materials are roughly one-half of total sales.
The value of productive services included in retail sales is derived
in the following tabulation:
Producer 0.462 0.462
goods
sold to
farm
house-
holds
Billion Rubles Con- 1.221 1.221
struction
Total productive services 3.9259 materi-
als sold
Shoe repair 0.3499 to house-
Repair and tailoring of clothing 2.0902 holds
Processing expenses 1.0451 Kerosene 0.131 0.131
Materials 1.0451 Film rentals 0.195 0.195
Repair of knitwear 0.2404 Commis- 0.699 0.140 0.559
Processing expenses 0.1202 sion
sales and
Materials 0.1202 sales to
Repair of durables 0.4428 rental
Furniture repair 0.1006 agencies
Dry cleaning 0.0951 Business 0.301 0.301
travel
Laundries 0.1647 expendi-
Photo services 0.1491 tures
Other productive services 0.2931 Services 3.926 3.087 0.839
included
Retail sales to households of goods for consumption are divided
among food, soft goods, and durables in the tabulation below: in retail
Billion Rubles
Total Food Soft Durables Other
sales
Uniden-
tified re-
tail sales
-2.052 -2.053 4.105
Goods and Equals:
Uniden- Sales to 141.096 84.104 42.734 14.258
tified house-
Total state
and cooper-
ative retail
sales, includ-
ing commis-
sion sales
155.208 88.948 45.092 14.856 6.312 holds of
goods
for
con-
sump-
tion
Less:
Sales to in- 7.177 4.543 1.052 1.253 0.329
stitut ions
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Table D-2 (Continued)
Sources to this table (Continued):
Total sales of food include the entire food category in the
enumeration of retail sales by type of good (86.168 billion rubles-
Narkhoz 1972. p. 584) plus sales of tobacco goods (2.780 billion
rubles-Ibid. p. 585).
Total identified sales of soft goods are derived from the Narkhoz
data (Ibid. pp, 584-585)as follows:
Billion Rubles
Total retail sales of soft goods
45.092
Cloth
5.026
Clothing
15.278
Knitwear
8.567
Shoes
7.693
Laundry soap
0.262
Synthetic cleaning materials
0.435
Toilet soap and perfumes
1.176
Haberdashery
3.638
Matches
0.137
Kerosene
0.131
Notebooks and paper
1.015
Publications
1.734
Total identified sales of durables are derived from the Narkhoz data
(Ibid. p. 585)as follows:
Billion Rubles
Total retail sales of durables
14.856
Furniture, carpets, and
metal beds
3.604
Metal dishes
0.961
Glass dishes
0.617
Sporting goods
0.542
Radio goods
2.832
Musical instruments
0.281
Toys
0.649
Bicycles and motorbikes
1.009
Watches
0.578
Jewelry
0.533
Electrical goods
2.050
Sewing machines
0.104
Automobiles
0.520
Other household goods
0.576
Other and unidentified retail sales include: window glass (0.050
billion rubles); lumber, cement, and other construction materials
(1.500 billion rubles); and an unidentified residual (5.282 billion
rubles).
The sales to institutions are allocated as in CIA, GNP 1970, pp.
61-62. The 0.329 billion rubles in the other and unidentified column
represents institutional purchases of window glass and lumber,
cement, and other construction materials. Producer goods sold to
farm households and film rentals are assumed to be in the
unidentified residual. The value of construction materials sold to
households is the difference between: (a) total sales of window glass
and lumber, cement, and other construction materials and (b)
institutional purchases of the same.
Commission sales and sales to rental agencies are believed to
consist mainly of used cars, appliances, furniture, jewelry, and the
like. Since these are durable goods, it is assumed that 80 percent of
these sales are durables and 20 percent are soft goods. The sales of
productive services included in retail sales were divided between
soft goods and durables. Those allocated to soft goods are: shoe
repair, repair and tailoring of clothing, repair of knitwear, dry
cleaning, laundries, and 50 percent of other productive services.
Those allocated to durables are: repair of durables, furniture repair,
photo services, and 50 percent of other productive services. The
remaining unidentified retail sales (4.625 billion rubles) were
allocated approximately equally between soft goods and durables.
b. Collective farm ex-village market sales. The total value of these
sales and their allocation between food and soft goods is from CIA,
GNP 1970, pp. 40 and 61-62.
2 Consumer services
a. Housing. The components of this item have been regrouped to
conform more closely with the accounting procedures of the United
States and the United Nations. Expenditures on housing now
consist of:
Billion Rubles
Total housing expenditures 3.429
Gross rent 2.733
Cash rent for urban public housing 1.016
Charges paid by members of housing 0.075
cooperatives for maintenance
Imputed gross rent on urban private and 1.642
rural housing
Repair expenditures by tenants of 0.696
public housing
This accounting conforms with the US and UN standard, which
treats maintenance expenditures by tenants as a final expenditure
and maintenance expenditures by owner-occupiers as a portion of
gross rent.
b. Other services
(I) Utilities are from CIA, GNP 1970, p.41.
(2) Transportation expenditures are reduced from those in CIA,
GNP 1970, p. 42 by 25 percent to remove estimated business travel
expenditures.
(3) Communications expenditures are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 42.
(4)Repair and personal care expenditures are derived as the sum of
expenditures on state-provided everyday services (4.481 billion
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rubles), privately provided services (0.929 billion rubles), and other
services (0.087 billion rubles). The state-provided everyday services
are from Narkhoz 1972, p. 621. The Narkhoz data must be adjusted
to exclude sales of housing repair and construction and sales to
enterprises of all types of services. They also must be adjusted to
include the value of materials used in repair and tailoring of clothing
and repair of knitwear, which was deducted from the retail sales of
goods to households for consumption (item 1, above). According to
data published by Dmitriev (Metodologicheskiye osnovy prognozir- '
ovaniya sprosa na bytovyye uslugi, p. 98), 7.6 percent of the total
sales reported in the Narkhoz (307.4 million rubles) represent
purchases by enterprises. This amount presumably includes sales to
enterprises of housing construction and repair services, estimated
above at 5 percent of the sales of these services. In order to avoid dou-
ble counting these sales, only 95 percent of the published value of
housing construction and repair value is deducted. Similarly, the
purchases of clothing and knitted materials must be added, net of the
portion sold to enterprises. The latter is estimated at 4 percent of
reported sales. Total sales of state-provided everyday services to the
population are estimated as follows:
Million Rubles
Total reported sales of everyday services 4,044.4
Less:
Enterprise purchases of everyday services 307.4
95 percent of sales of housing construction and 375.0
repair services
Plus:
96 percent of materials used in tailoring and 1,003.3
repair of clothing
96 percent of materials used in repair of knitwear 115.4
Equals:
Sales of everyday services to households 4,480.7
Household expenditures on privately provided services were estimat-
ed in table D-1, item 4,a, (2),(b). Expenditures on other services are
from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 42.
(5) Recreation expenditures (2.547 billion rubles) have been reduced
by 0.100 billion rubles from the value derived in CIA, GNP 1970, p.
42 in order to account for business travel expenses on hotel
accommodations. This deduction is an arbitrary value. Household
expenditures on recreation are computed as follows:
Billion Rubles
Total household expenditures on recreation
2.547
Entertainment
1.500
Passes to resorts and the like
0.447
Hotels, motels, and the like
0.062
Private room rentals
0.538
(6)Education expenditures by households consist of expenditures for
private services (0.470 billion rubles) and fees for public education
(0.971 billion rubles). The former is derived in table D-1, item 4,a,(2),
(d) and the later in CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 42-43.
133
(7) Health expenditures by households consist of expenditures for
private services (0.250 billion rubles) and fees paid by parents for
children's nursery care (0.095 billion rubles). The former is derived
in table D-1, item 4,a,(2),(e) and the latter in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 43.
3. Consumption in kind
a. Farm consumption in kind. See table D-1, item 2,c,(1).
(1) Food is from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 61.
(2)Soft goods is from CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 61-62.
b. Military subsistence. See table D-1, item 3,b.
(1) Food is a CIA estimate. ,
(2)Soft goods is a CIA estimate.
4. Total outlays for consumption. This was derived as the sum of
items 1, 2, and 3.
5. Investment
a. Private housing construction. See Narkhoz 1972, p. 486.
b. Farm investment in kind. See table D- I, item 2,c,(2).
6. Total outlays for consumption and investment. This was derived
as the sum of items 4 and 5.
7. Transfer outlays
a. Net savings. This is from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 43.
b. Direct taxes. This is from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 43.
c. Other payments to the state. This item (2.703 billion rubles) is
estimated as the sum of: (1) trade union and other dues (2.066
billion rubles), (2) net lottery ticket purchases (0.254 billion rubles),
(3) taxes on land and buildings owned by individuals and coopera-
tives (0.211 billion rubles), (4) collective-farm-market fees paid by
households (0.050 billion rubles), and (5) other state budget revenue
from the population (0.122 billion rubles). Trade union and other
dues are now treated as transfer outlays because they are used to
finance various social-cultural and administrative activities that are
included in public-sector outlays. They are estimated as in CIA,
GNP 1970, pp. 40-41, except for Communist Party dues. These
dues (0.390 billion rubles) are derived on the basis of: (1) estimated
total membership in 1970 of 14,192,174; the average of member-
ship figures for 1 January 1970 and 1 January 1971 given in
Partiinaya zhizn', No. 14, 1973, pp. 9-10; (2) an estimated average
annual wage of members of 1830 rubles-25 percent above the
level for all state employees (Narkhoz 1972, p. 516); and (3) a dues
rate of 1.5 percent of wages, the applicable rate given in Ustav
kommunisticheskoy partiy sovetskogo soyuza, Moscow, Politizdat,
1964, p. 385. Net lottery ticket purchases are from CIA, GNP
1970, p. 43. Taxes on land and buildings owned by individuals and
cooperatives are from Gosbyudzhet 1972, p. 77. Collective-farm-
market fees paid by households are from CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 23-
24. Other state budget revenue from the population is derived as the
difference between total state budget revenues from the population
(13.844 billion rubles�Gosbyudzhet 1972, p. 12), and the sum of:
(I) direct taxes from the population (12.737 billion rubles�lbid), (2)
net bond purchases (0.470 billion rubles�Ibid), (3) net lottery ticket
purchases (0.254 billion rubles�lbid), (4) collective-farm-market
fees paid by households (0.050 billion rubles�above), and (5) taxes
on land and buildings owned by individuals and cooperatives (0.211
billion rubles�above).
8. Total outlays. This was derived as the sum of items 6 and 7.
93-892 0 - 82 - 10
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Table D-3
Billion Rubles
Soviet Public-Sector Incomes, 1970
I. Net income retained by organizations
a. Retained income of collective farms
b. Retained profits of state enterprises
c. Retained profits of consumer cooperatives
d. Retained profits of other organizations
2. Charges to economic enterprises for special
funds
34.809
7.186
26.481
0.821
0.321
14.521
a. Social insurance and social security 9.436
b. Education 0.400
c. Research 2.578
d. Social-cultural measures and sports activities 0.162
e. Militarized guards 0.880
f. Support for administration of higher echelons 1.065
3. Taxes and other payments to the budget 132.077
a. Tax on income of collective farms 0.666
b. Tax on income of consumer cooperatives 0.462
c. Tax on income of other organizations 0.107
d. Deductions from profits of state enterprises 53.110
e. Turnover tax 53.346
f. Miscellaneous charges 24.386
4. Allowances for subsidized losses n.e.c. -22.553
5. Consolidated total charges against current 158.854
product, net of depreciation
6. Depreciation 31.827
7. Consolidated total charges against current 190.681
product
8. Transfer receipts
a. Net savings of households
b. Direct taxes
25.160
9.720
12.737
c. Other payments to the state 2.703
9. Consolidated net income 215.841
Sources to this table:
1.Net income retained by organizations
a. Retained income Qf collective farms. See OA, GNP 1970, p. 45.
b. Retained profits of state enterprises. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 45.
c. Retained profits of consumer cooperatives. This item (0.821
billion rubles) is the difference between net profits (1.321 billion
rubles) and the sum of (1) income taxes (0.462 billion rubles) and (2)
premiums paid to employees (0.038 billion rubles). All data are
from CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 45-46.
d. Retained profits of other organizations. See CIA, GNP 1970, p.
46.
2. Charges to economic enterprises for special funds
a. Social insurance and social security. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 46.
b. Education. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 46.
c. Research. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 46.
d. Social-cultural and sports activities. This item (0.162 billion
rubles), estimated as 0.15 percent of total wages of khozraschet
enterprises, represents funds paid to trade unions for support of
social-cultural and sports activities. A proxy for the total wages of
khozraschet enterprises is the total state wage bill (table D-1, item
1) less the wages in health, education, government administrative
services, and part of science (the latter taken at half the state
budget allocation for science, net of investment). The wage bills of
these sectors are shown in table D-8, column 7.
e. Militarized guards. This item (0.880 billion rubles) is estimated
at half of total current outlays on civilian police (table D-4, item
2,d,[3D. It represents charges to enterprise costs that are known to
be incurred for the support of the militarized guard. It is thought
that a substantial share of such police are used to guard state
reserves and prisoners working on contract in ordinary productive
enterprises.
f. Administrative expenses of higher echelons. This item (1.065
billion rubles) is estimated at 30.8 percent of total current outlays
on state administration, the estimated share of employment in
economic administration (trusts, offices, and others) in total state
administration employment. The share was extrapolated to 1970 on
the basis of its growth between 1960 (24.0 percent) and 1967 (28.6
percent-Trud v SSSR, p. 29). This item is intended to represent
the charge to costs of khozraschet enterprises for "support of
higher echelons," a standard item in enterprise accounts. Outlays
on state administration (3.458 billion rubles) are calculated at 90.5
percent of outlays on state administration and social organizations
(3.821 billion rubles-table D-4, item 2,c). This share is derived in
CIA, GNP 1970, p. 54.
3. Taxes and other payments to the budget
a. Tax on income of collective farms. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 46.
b. Tax on income of consumer cooperatives. See CIA, GNP 1970,
p. 46.
c. Tax on income of other organizations. See CIA, GNP 1970, p.
46.
d. Deductions from profits of state enterprises. See CIA, GNP
1970, p. 46.
e. Turnover tax. See Gosbyudzhet 1972, p. 17.
f. Miscellaneous charges. The estimate of this item is substantially
revised from the method described in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 47. In
concept, this item still represents the share of unidentified budget-
ary income which is received from current production activity plus
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several miscellaneous identified incomes. Gosbyudzhet 1972 gives �
total revenues from the socialist sector and identifies several
components (pp. 11-12), leaving a large residual:
Billion Rubles
Total income from the socialist sector 142.8587
Less:
Turnover taxes 49.3798
Payments of state enterprises and other economic 54.1568
organizations from profits
Income taxes from kolkhozy and social 1.2344
organizations
Social insurance charges 8.2034
Forestry income 0.4924
Equals:
Residual 29.3919
Several other income items, which can be estimated or identified
from other parts of Gosbyudzhet 1972 or from other sources, reduce
this residual substantially:
Billion Rubles
Residual
Less:
29.3919
Local fees from enterprises
Rental income
Income from reduction of administrative
expenses
0.4588
0.0626
1.7000
Republic budget surplus
Increase in the supply of money
Income from foreign trade
Parents' fees for kindergartens
Parents' fees for nurseries
Price markups on radio and television sets
Surcharges on spare parts for agricultural
machinery
1.2548
2.0000
7.5810
0.7348
0.0835
0.5100
0.7500
Equals:
Revised residual
14.2564
The estimates of income from reduction of administrative
expenses and the increase in the supply of money are taken from Igor
Birman, Secret Incomes of the Soviet State Budget, The Hague,
135
Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, 1981, pp. 82 and 202. The estimate of
surcharges on spare parts for agricultural machinery is derived from
the estimate for 1972 in Vladimir G. Treml, Agricultural Subsidies
in the Soviet Union, p. 28, and the indication that the 1970 and 1972
values were virtually identical (Vladimir G. Treml, Price Indexes for
Soviet I8-Sector Input-Output Tables for 1959-1975, Arlington,
Va., SRI International, 1978, p. 96). The estimate of income from
foreign trade is derived as the sum of the differences in the prices of
exports and imports in domestic and foreign trade prices. Estimatts
of exports and imports in domestic prices are from Vladimir G.
Treml, and Barry L. Kostinsky, The Domestic Value of Soviet
Foreign Trade: Exports and Imports in the 1972 Input-Output
Table, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
Foreign Economic Report No. 20, Washington, D. C., forthcoming.
Exports and imports in foreign trade prices are in Narkhoz 1972, p.
737.
The revised residual may include income from such sources as:
custom duties, gross receipts of budget organizations, miscellaneous
levies and nontax revenues, unspent budget allocations, fines,
deductions for the road economy, and possibly bank loans to the
budget equivalent to the increase in savings deposits of the
population. In the absence of information on the content of the
revised residual, we assume that 90 percent (12.8303 billion rubles)
represents income derived from current production of goods and
services.
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Table D-3 (Continued)
Sources to this table (Continued):
Total miscellaneous charges are then computed as the unidenti-
fied current income just derived plus those items enumerated in the
derivation of the residual that represent current income and are not
included elsewhere:
Billion Rubles
90 percent of revised budget income residual 12.8308
Plus:
Price markups on radio and television sets
Forestry income
Local fees from enterprises
Rental income
Income from reduction of administrative
expenses
0.5100
0.4924
0.4588
0.0626
1.7000
Surcharges on spare parts for agricultural 0.7500
machinery
Income from foreign trade 7.5810
Equals:
Miscellaneous charges 24.3856
4. Allowance for subsidized losses. There have been several revisions
in the estimation of this item. It now consists of the following
subsidies:
Billion Rubles
Total subsidies
22.553
Price differences on the procurement of
agricultural products by industry
13.580
Payments from gross turnover taxes
3.966
Payments from the budget to cover price
reductions in retail trade
0.400
Processed feeds
0.475
Fertilizer
0.365
Agricultural machinery and equipment
0.432
Housing
2.086
Budget allocations to the press
0.120
Art and radiobroadcasting
0.628
Recreation
0.501
Price differences on the procurement of agricultural products by
industry are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 49, except that a subsidy to
milk products of 0.750 billion rubles has been deducted because it is
now known to be netted against profits (Izvestiya akademii nauk,
seriya ekonomicheskaya, No. 5, 1975, p. 67 and Vladimir G. Treml,
Agricultural Subsidies in the Soviet Union, p. 24).
Payments from gross turnover taxes are the difference between
gross and net turnover taxes (Gosbyudzhet 1972, pp. 11 and 14). The
subsidies for processed feeds, fertilizer, and agricultural machinery
and equipment are from Vladimir G. Treml, Price Indexes for Soviet
I8-Sector Input-Output Tables, 1959-1975, p. 96.
All other subsidies are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 48. Budgetary
outlays on physical culture (0.047 billion rubles) were treated as a
subsidy in CIA, GNP 1970. They are now classified as a component
of public- sector outlays on physical culture.
5.Consolidated total charges against product, net of depreciation.
This was derived as the sum of items 1 through 4.
6. Depreciation. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 49.
7. Consolodated charges against current product. This was derived
as the sum of items 5 and 6.
8. Transfer receipts. See Table D-2, item 7.
9. Consolidated net income. This was derived as the sum of items 7
and 8.
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Table D-4
Soviet Public-Sector Outlays, 1970
I. Communal services
Billion Rubles
21.268
a. Education
12.939
b. Health
8.268
c. Physical culture
0.061
2. Government administrative services
9.030
a. General agricultural programs
1.004
b. Forestry
0.636
c. State administration and the
administrative organs of social
organizations
3.821
d. Municipal and related services
3.569
(1) Culture
1.180
(2) Municipal services
0.628
(3) Civilian police
1.761
3. Gross investment
122.143
a. Fixed capital
106.989
(1) New fixed investment
87.989
(a) Machinery and equipment
26.053
(b) Construction and other
capital outlays
58.164
(c) Net additions to livestock
3.772
(2) Capital repair
19.000
b. Inventories
15.154
4. Research and development
10.343
5. Outlays n.e.c.
28.429
a. Net exports
0.961
b. Defense n.e.c., unidentified out-
lays, and statistical discrepancy
27.468
6. Consolidated total value of goods and
services, exclusive of sales to
households
191.213
7. Transfer outlays
24.628
a. Pensions and allowances
22.300
b. Stipends
1.300
c. Interest payments to households
1.035
d. Net new bank loans to households
-0.034
e. Profits distributed to consumer
cooperative members
0.027
8. Consolidated total outlays
215.841
Sources to this table:
I. Communal services
a. Education. Public-sector outlays on education are estimated at
12.939 billion rubles: the sum of wages (9.400 billion rubles), social
insurance (0.517 billion rubles), and other current outlays (3.993
billion rubles), less parents' fees for education (0.971 billion rubles).
137
Wages are derived from reported employment (7.246 million-
Narkhoz 1978, p. 366) and the average wage rate (108.1 rubles per
month-Ibid. p. 373). Social insurance is calculated as 5.5 percent
of the wage bill (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 52).
The method of estimating other current outlays is complicated
and set out in full in the description of the end-use education index
(JEC, Consumption). Only a summary is given here. Budgetary
education expenditures are divided between general education and
higher education (Gosbyudzhet 1971, pp. 27-28). The budget
handbooks provide additional details on certain educational subca-
tegories of these two expenditure categories (for example, primary
and secondary schools-lbid, pp. 84-94) for the republic budgets
only. Included are such items as wages, social insurance, stipends,
and investment in equipment. For each of these educational
subcategories, other (nonlabor) current outlays and total current
outlays are computed. Then both items are summed for general and
higher education and the percentage of other current outlays in
total current outlays is computed. Finally, total budgetary expendi-
tures for the USSR for the two categories are multiplied by the
percentage of other current outlays and the results summed to
arrive at total other current outlays. Parents' fees for education are
derived in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 42.
b. Health. Outlays for health are estimated at 8.268 billion rubles:
the sum of wages (5.004 billion rubles), social insurance (0.275
billion rubles), and other current outlays (3.084 billion rubles), less
parents' fees for health (0.095 billion rubles). These components are
estimated jointly with expenditures on physical culture (item 1,c
below) in the following tabulation:
Outlays on Health and Physical Culture
Billion Rubles
Total
Physical
Culture
Health
Wages and social
insurance
5.916
0.637
5.279
Wages
5.608
0.604
5.004
Social insurance
0.308
0.033
0.275
Other current outlays
from the budget
3.106
0.022
3.084
Other current outlays
from other sources
0.350
0.350
Subsidy
-0.501
-0.501
Parents' fees
-0.542
-0.447
-0.095
Total
8.329
0.061
8.268
Total wages in health and physical culture are derived from
reported employment in health, which includes physical culture
(5.080 million-Narkhoz 1978, p. 366), and the average wage rate
(92.0 rubles per month-lbid, p. 373). Total social insurance is
calculated as 5.5 percent of the wage bill (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 53). It
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Table D-4 (Continued)
Sources to this table (Continued):
was assumed that the shares of other (nonlabor) current outlays in
total expenditures were the same in both health and physical culture.
The estimate resulting from this assumption is that other current
expenditures are 36.9 percent of total expenditures.
Total expenditures on physical culture are estimated at 1.009
billion rubles, the sum of public-sector outlays (0.061 billion rubles-
item 1,c below), the subsidy for recreation (0.501 billion rubles-
table D-3, item 4), and household expenditures for passes to resorts
and the like (0.447 billion rubles-CIA, GNP 1970, p. 42). Other
current outlays are 36.9 percent, or 0.372 billion rubles of total
expenditures. Of this total, 0.022 billion rubles represent budgetary
expenditures. Wages and social security payments in physical
culture are then determined as total outlays less other current
outlays, or 0.637 billion rubles. This in turn determines wages and
social insurance in health as 5.279 billion rubles (5.916 billion rubles
in health and physical culture less 0.637 billion rubles in physical
culture).
Finally, other current outlays from the budget are determined as
they were for education. Other current outlays are computed as a
percentage of total current outlays for identified republic budgetary
expenditures and then multiplied by total budgetary health expen-
ditures. The result is an estimate of other current outlays in health
and physical culture of 3.106 billion rubles. Subtracting the
estimated outlays of physical culture of 0.022 billion rubles pro-
duces outlays on health alone of 3.084 billion rubles.
c. Physical culture. Public-sector outlays on physical culture are
0.061 billion rubles, the sum of budgetary expenditures (0.047
billion rubles-Narkhoz 1970, p. 734) and other expenditures
(0.014 billion rubles). V. Cao-Pinna and S. S. Shatalin published a
value for 1969 of public-sector outlays of 0.053 billion rubles
(Consumption Expenditures in Eastern and Western Europe, New
York, Pergamon Press, 1979, p. 116). Budgetary outlays in 1969
were 0.041 billion rubles (Narkhoz 1970, p. 734). Assuming the
relationship between budgetary and other expenditures in 1969 is
the same in 1970, then total outlays in 1970 are:
(0.047) x (0.053/0.041) = 0.061 billion rubles.
2. Government Administrative Services
a. General agricultural programs. This item is the sum of wages
(0.721 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.032 billion
rubles), and other current outlays (0.251 billion rubles). Wages are
derived from employment (0.586 million) and the average wage rate
(102.5 rubles per month). Employment is determined as the differ-
ence between total state agricultural employment (9.419 million-
Narkhoz 1978, p. 366) and employment in state farms and other
state enterprises (8.833 million-Ibid). The wage rate is determined
from the difference in the wage rates for total state agriculture
(101.0 rubles per month-Ibid. p. 372) and state farms and other
state organizations (100.9 rubles per month-Ibid). The following
tabulation shows the calculation:
Employ-
ment
(million
people)
Wage
Rate
(rubles per
month)
Monthly
Wages
(billion
rubles)
Total state agriculture
9.419
101.0
0.951
State farms and other
state enterprises
8.833
100.9
0.891
General agricultural
programs
0.586
102.5
0.060
Social insurance deductions are derived as 4.4 percent of wages
(CIA, GNP 1970, p. 53). Other current outlays are estimated as one-
fourth of current outlays, a reduction from the one-third used in
CIA, GNP 1970 (p. 53) for government administrative services. The
lower share is based on fragmentary evidence that labor costs
comprise the vast bulk of outlays on these government services. The
share would be lower than in education (31 percent-item 1,a above)
and health (37 percent-item 1,b above), where food costs are large.
b. Forestry. Total outlays are estimated as 0.636 billion rubles: the
sum of wages (0.457 billion rubles), social insurance deductions
(0.020 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.159 billion
rubles). Wages are derived from employment (0.433 million-
Narkhoz 1978, p. 366) and the average wage rate (88 rubles per
month). The wage rate, not published in the Narkhoz, is from G. I.
Vorob'ev et al (Lesnoye khozyaystvo SSSR, Moscow, Lesnaya
Promyshlennost', 1977, p. 331). Social insurance deductions are
calculated at 4.4 percent of wages (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 53). Other
current outlays are estimated to be one-fourth of total current
outlays.
c. State administration and the administrative organs of social
organizations. This item is a combination of two sectors in CIA,
GNP 1970: (1) state administration, and (2) the administrative
organs of social organizations. The separation of the two sectors in
CIA, GNP 1970 was somewhat arbitrary, and we used the same
man-hour employment index to measure changes in the activity
level of both sectors. It was decided therefore to use one combined
sector in this report.
Total outlays are estimated at 3.821 billion rubles-the sum of
wages (2.717 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.149
billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.955 billion rubles).
Wages are derived from employment (1.838 million-Narkhoz
1978, p. 366) and the average wage rate (123.2 rubles per month-
Ibid. p. 372). Social insurance deductions are calculated at 5.5
percent of the wage bill (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 54). Other current
outlays are assumed to be one-fourth of total current outlays.
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d. Municipal and related services. (1)Culture outlays are estimated
at 1.180 billion rubles�the sum of wages (0.839 billion rubles),
social insurance deductions (0.046 billion rubles), and other current
outlays (0.295 billion rubles). The wage bill is derived from
employment (0.824 million�Narkhoz 1978, p. 366) and the aver-
age wage rate (84.8 rubles per month�Ibid, p. 372). Social
insurance deductions are calculated at 5.5 percent of the wage bill
(CIA, GNP 1970, p. 52). Other current outlays are assumed to be
one-fourth of total current outlays.
(2) Municipal services are estimated at 0.628 billion rubles�the
sum of wages (0.450 billion rubles), social insurance deductions
(0.021 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.157 billion
rubles). The wage bill is derived from employment (0.397 million)
and the average wage rate (94.5 rubles per month). Employment is
derived as 13 percent of the employment of the housing-communal
economy (3.052 million�Narkhoz 1978, p. 366). The wage rate is
assumed to be equal to that of the total housing-communal sector
(Ibid, p. 373). Social insurance deductions are calculated as 4.7
percent of the wage bill (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 54). Other current
outlays are assumed to be one-fourth of total current outlays.
(3) Civilian police outlays are estimated as 1.761 billion rubles�the
sum of wages (1.235 billion rubles), social insurance deductions
(0.086 billion rubles), and other current outlays (0.440 billion
rubles). The wage bill is derived from employment (0.675 million)
and an estimated wage rate (152.5 rubles per month). Employment
is estimated to be 67.6 percent of the Narkhoz employment
category "other branches of material production" (0.998 million�
Narkhoz 1978, p. 366). The wage rate is assumed to be 25 percent
above the average wage rate of all state workers and employees
(122.0 rubles per month�Ibid). This assumption results from the
calculation of the implicit wage rate for the forestry and other
branches of material production sectors, the two sectors for which
wage data are not published in the Narkhoz. This type of calcula-
tion is subject to rounding errors, but a study of several years shows
that the implicit wage rate is consistently higher than the average
for all state workers and employees.
Social insurance deductions are assumed to be 7.0 percent of the
wage bill. Other current outlays are assumed to be one-fourth of
total current outlays.
3. Gross Investment
a. Fixed capital. (1) Machinery and equipment is estimated at
26.053 billion rubles: the sum of new fixed investment in machinery
and equipment (25.300 billion rubles), changes in warehouse stocks
of equipment requiring installation (-0.137 billion rubles), and the
acquisition of equipment by budget institutions (0.890 billion
rubles). New fixed investment is reported in Narkhoz 1972, (p. 474)
as the "equipment, instruments, and inventory," component of
capital investment. This value is said to be in 1969 estimate prices.
139
How those prices compare to 1970 prices is uncertain. The
wholesale price index for the output of the machine-building and
metalworking branch of industry shows no change in 1970 com-
pared with 1969. Western studies have suggested that there is a
persistent upward trend in price, but no precise estimates of yearly
changes are available. Here it is assumed that there was no change
between 1969 estimate prices and 1970 expenditures.
The change in warehouse stocks of equipment requiring installa-
tion is from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 55. The acquisition of equipment
by budget-supported institutions is not included in Soviet invest-
ment data. This value was estimated by increasing the reported
value for outlays by union-republic budgets (0.6506 billion rubles�
G'osbyudzhet 1972, p. 78) to include outlays from the union budget.
In 1970 union-republic budgets financed 73.1 percent of total
outlays on education, culture, health, physical culture, science, and
administration (Ibid, pp. 33, 34, 60, 69, and 72). It is assumed that
this relationship is also true for the acquisition of equipment.
(2) Construction and other capital outlays are estimated as the
difference between total expenditures on construction and other
capital outlays (59.8 billion rubles) and private expenditures on
housing construction (1.636 billion rubles�table D-2, item 5,a).
Total outlays on construction and other capital outlays are derived
as the difference between the gross output of the construction sector
(67.6 billion Narkhoz 1978, p. 41) and estimated expenditures on
capital repair of structures (7.8 billion rubles�appendix C).
(3) Net additions to livestock in the public sector are derived in
same manner as in the private sector (table D-1, item 2,c,[2j). The
calculation is shown below.
Valuation of the Net Additions
to Public-Sector Livestock
Inventories, 1970
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Inventory of Animals Net Additions to
(thousand head) Livestock Inventories
End End Thousand Rubles Billion
1969 1970 Head Per Rubles
Head
Cattle
70,173
74,272
4,099
442
1.812
Hogs
42,225
50,921
8,696
173
1.504
Sheep and
goats
104,138
110,241
6,103
37
0.226
Poultry
230,213
276,192
45,979
5
0.230
Total
3.772
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Table D-4 (Continued)
Sources to this table (Continued):
Sources: All data are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 57, except for
poultry. The poultry inventory data are from Selkhoz 1971, p. 273.
The poultry price is derived by Margaret Hughes and Barbara
Severin in JEC, Agriculture, p. 51.
(4) Capita/ repair is derived as the sum of collective-farm outlays
(0.918 billion rubles), amortization deductions for capital repair
(14.663 billion rubles), and budget expenditures for capital repair
(3.419 billion rubles). The collective-farm outlays are from CIA,
GNP 1970, p. 55. The amortization deductions are from Narkhoz
1978, p. 532. The budget expenditures reported for union-republic
budgets (2.4993 billion rubles�Gosbyudzhet 1971, p. 81) are
assumed to represent 73.1 percent of total budget-financed capital
repair expenditures, the same share as used in the derivation of the
acquisition of equipment by budget-supported institutions in item
3,a,(1) above.
b. Inventories. See CIA, GNP 1970, p. 55.
4. Research and development. This item is derived as the sum of
wages (5.020 billion rubles), social insurance deductions (0.276
billion rubles), depreciation (0.165 billion rubles), profits (0.094
billion rubles), charges for special funds (0.325 billion rubles), and
material expenditures (4.463 billion rubles). The wage bill is derived
from employment (2.999 million�Narkhoz 1978, p. 366) and the
average wage rate (139.5 rubles per month�Ibid, p. 373). Social
insurance deductions are calculated as 5.5 percent of the wage bill
(CIA, GNP /970, p. 56). Depreciation, profits, and charges for
special funds are estimated in table D-9. Material expenditures are
estimated in the same manner, as the corresponding component of
the research and development index (appendix B, table B-18).
5. Outlays n.e.c.
a. Net exports. This was derived as the difference between total
exports and total imports valued in foreign trade prices (Narkhoz
1978, p. 547).
b. Defense n.e.c., unidentified outlays, and statistical discrepancy.
This was derived as the difference between total outlays (item 8) and
the sum of items 1 through 4; 5,a; and 7.
6. Consolidated total value of goods and services exclusive of sales
to households. This was derived as the sum of items 1 through 5.
7. Transfer outlays. See table D-1, item 8.
8. Consolidated total outlays. These are equal to total incomes, table
D-3, item 9.
140
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Table D-5
Soviet Gross National Product in
Established Prices by End Use, 1970
1. Consumption
a. Goods
Billion Rubles
211.083 .
166.478
(1) Food
107.926
(2) Soft goods
44.294
(3) Durables
14.258
b. Services
44.605
(1) Housing
3.429
(2) Utilities
3.478
(3) Transportation
5.400
(4) Communications
1.200
(5) Repair and personal care
5.497
(6) Recreation
2.608
(7) Education
14.380
(8) Health
8.613
2. Investment
124.374
a. New fixed investment
90.220
(1) Machinery and equipment
26.053
(2) Construction and other capital outlays 59.800
(3) Net additions to livestock
4.367
b. Capital repair
C. Inventories
19.000
15.154
3. Other public-sector expenditures
47.802
a. Government administrative services
9.030
(1) General agricultural programs
(2) Forestry
(3) State administration and the administra-
tive organs of social organizations
1.004
0.636
3.821
(4) Municipal and related services
(a) Culture
(b) Municipal services
(c) Civilian police
b. Research and development
c. Outlays n.e.c.
(1) Net exports
3.569
1.180
0.628
1.761
10.343
28.429
0.961
(2) Defense n.e.c., unidentified outlays, and 27.468
statistical discrepancy
4. Gross national product
383.259
141
Sources to this table:
I. Consumption
a. Goods
(1) Food is the sum of items 1,a,(1); 1,b,(1); 3,a,(1); and 3,b,(1) in
table D-2.
(2) Soft goods is the sum of items 1,a,(2); 1,b,(2); 3,a,(2); and 3,b,(2)
of table D-2.
(3) Durables. See table D-2, item 1,a,(3).
b. Services
(1) Housing. See table D-2, item 2,a.
(2) Utilities. See table D-2, item 2,b,(1).
(3) Transportation. See table D-2, item 2,b,(2).
(4) Communications. See table D-2, item 2,b,(3).
(5) Repair and personal care. See table D-2, item 2,b,(4).
(6) Recreation. See table D-2, item 2,b,(5); and table D-4, item 1,c.
(7) Education. See table D-2, item 2,b,(6); and table D-4, item 1,a.
(8) Health. See table D-2, item 2,b,(7); and table D-4, item 1,b.
2. Investment
a. New fixed investment
(1) Machinery and equipment. See table D-4, item 3,a,(1 ),(a).
(2) Construction and other capital outlays. See table D-2, item 5,a;
and table D-4, item 3,a,(1),(b).
(3) Net additions to livestock. See table D-2, item 5,b; and table D-
4, item 3,a,(1),(c).
b. Capital repair. See table D-4, item 3,a,(2).
c. Inventories. See table D-4, item 3,b.
3. Other public-sector expenditures
a Government administrative services. See table D-4, item 2.
b. Research and development. See table D-4, item 4.
c. Outlays n.e.c. See table D-4, item 5.
4 Gross national product. This is the sum of items 1 through 3.
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Table D-6 Billion Rubles
Soviet Gross National Product in Established Prices
by Type of Income, 1970
1. Wage bill 135.412
a. State wages and salaries 132.032
b. Military pay and allowances 3.380
2. Other and imputed income 62.251
a. Net income of households from agriculture 41.709
b. Military subsistence 3.200
c. Other money income currently earned 10.598
and statistical discrepancy
d. Imputed net rent 1.080
e. Imputed value of owner-supplied construction 0.579
services
f. Charges to economic enterprises for special 5.085
funds
(1) Education
(2) Research
(3) Social-cultural measures and sports
activities
0.400
2.578
0.162
(4) Militarized guards 0.880
(5) Support for administration of higher 1.065
echelons
3. Social insurance
4. Profits
a. State enterprises
(1) Retained profits of state enterprises
(2) Deductions from profits of state
enterprises
9.436
89.154
79.591
26.481
53.110
b. Collective farms
(1) Retained income of collective farms
(2) Tax on income of collective farms
c. Consumer cooperatives
(1) Retained profits of consumer cooperatives
(2) Tax on income of consumer cooperatives
d. Other organizations
(1) Retained profits of other organizations
(2) Tax on income of other organizations
5. Depreciation
6. Turnover and other indirect taxes
a. Turnover taxes
b. Miscellaneous charges
7.852
7.186
0.666
1.283
0.821
0.462
0.428
0.321
0.107
31.827
77.732
53.346
24.386
7. Allowances for subsidized losses n.e.c. -22.553
8. Gross national product 383.259
Sources to this table:
1. Wage Bill
a. State wages and salaries. See table D-1, item 1.
b. Military pay and subsistence. See table D-1, item 3,a.
2. Other and Imputed Income
a. Net income of households from agriculture. See table D-1, item
2.
b. Military subsistence. See table D-1, item 3,b.
c. Other money income currently earned and statistical -
discrepancy. See table D-1, item 4.
d. Imputed net rent. See table D-1, item 5.
e. Imputed value of owner-supplied construction services. See
table D-1, item 6.
f. Charges to economic enterprises for special funds. See table D-
3, items 2,h; 2,c; 2,d; 2,e; and 2,f.
3. Social insurance. See table D-3, item 2,a.
4. Profits
a. State enterprises
(1) Retained profits of state enterprises. See table D-3, item 1,b.
(2) Deductions from profits of state enterprises. See table D-3,
item 3,d.
b. Collective farms
(1) Retained income of collective farms. See table D-3, item 1,a.
(2) Tax on income of collective farms. See table D-3, item 3,a.
c. Consumer cooperatives
(1) Retained profits of consumer cooperatives. See table D-3,
item 1,c.
(2) Tax on income of consumer cooperatives. See table D-3,
item 3,b.
d. Other organizations
(1) Retained profits of other organizations. See table D-3, item
1,d.
(2) Tax on income of other organizations. See table D-3, item
3,c.
5. Depreciation. See table D-3, item 6.
6. Turnover and other indirect taxes
a. Turnover taxes. See table D-3, item 3,e.
b. Miscellaneous charges. See table D-3, item 3,f.
7. Allowance for subsidized losses. See table D-3, item 4.
8. Gross national product. This was derived as the sum of items 1
through 7.
142
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Table D-7
Soviet Gross National Product in Established Prices by Sector of Origin, 1970
Billion Rubles
(8)
Total
(1)
States
Wage
Bill
(2)
Other
and
Imputed
Income
(3)
Social
Insurance
Deductions
(4) (5)
Depreciation Profits
(6)
Turnover
and Other
Indirect
Taxes
(7)
Subsidies
Total
135.412
62.251
9.436
31.827
89.154
77.732
-22.553
383.259
Industry
49.535
5.275
3.571
14.893
52.385
68.861
-18.688
175.832
Ferrous metals
2.539
0.271
0.200
1.430
3.355
-0.363
0
7.432
Nonferrous metals
1.548
0.165
0.122
0.798
2.321
-0.194
0
4.760
Fuels
3.717
0.397
0.328
2.321
3.866
4.467
0
15.096
Electric power
1.065
0.114
0.070
1.602
2.476
0.663
0
5.990
Machinery
19.461
2.070
1.491
3.247
14.186
5.768
-0.432
45.791
Chemicals
2.613
0.279
0.218
1.150
3.927
2.016
-0.365
9.838
Wood, pulp, and
paper
4.648
0.495
0.219
1.077
3.127
1.383
0
10.949
Construction
materials
3.768
0.401
0.230
0.963
1.601
0.725
0
7.688
Light industry
5.174
0.551
0.351
0.440
6.288
25.857
-5.306
33.355
Food industry
4.185
0.446
0.283
1.291
6.899
27.224
-12.110
28.218
Other industry
0.817
0.086
0.059
0.574
4.339
1.315
-0.475
6.715
Construction
16.889
2.669
1.025
2.147
4.454
1.125
0
28.309
Agriculture
12.033
42.991
1.696
5.531
12.494
3.836
0
78.581
Transportation
10.294
1.096
0.545
5.081
10.081
1.121
0
28.218
Communications
1.545
0.164
0.082
0.383
0.790
0.107
-0.370
2.701
Trade
8.748
0.932
0.395
1.323
6.679
0.726
-0.530
18.273
Services
32.174
5.866
1.772
2.423
2.177
1.786
-2.845
43.353
Housing
1.765
2.011
0.083
1.318
0
0.194
-2.086
3.285
Utilities
0.594
0.043
0.028
0.308
0.724
0.070
0
1.767
Repair and personal
care
2.277
0.998
0.146
0.193
0.376
0.165
0
4.155
Recreation
1.176
0.568
0.064
0.284
0.466
0.074
-0.759
1.873
Education
9.400
1.001
0.517
0
0
0.452
0
11.370
Health
5.004
0.533
0.275
0
0
0.241
0
6.053
Science
5.020
0.312
0.276
0.165
0.094
0.243
0
6.110
Credit and
insurance
0.519
0.037
0.029
0.155
0.517
0.052
0
1.309
Government admin-
istrative services
6.419
0.363
0.354
0
0
0.295
0
7.431
General agricul-
tural programs
0.721
0.041
0.032
0
0
0.033
0
0.827
143
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Table D-7 (Continued)
Soviet Gross National Product in Established Prices by Sector of Origin, 1970
Billion Rubles
(6)
Turnover
and Other
Indirect
Taxes
(7)
Subsidies
(8)
Total
(1)
States
Wage
Bill
(2)
Other
and
Imputed
Income
(3)
Social
Insurance
Deductions
(4) (5)
Depreciation Profits
Forestry
0.457
0.026
0.020
0
0
0.021
0
0.524
State administra-
lion and the
administrative
organs of social
organizations
2.717
0.154
0.149
0
0
0.124
0
3.144
Culture
0.839
0.047
0.046
0
0
0.039
0
0.971
Municipal
services
0.450
0.025
0.021
0
0
0.021
0
0.517
Civilian police
1.235
0.070
0.086
0
0
0.057
0
1.448
Military personnel
3.380
3.200
0.240
0
0
0
0
6.820
Other branches
0.814
0.058
0.110
0.046
0.094
0.170
-0.120
1.172
Sources for this table:
I. State wage bill. See table D-8, column 7.
2. Other and imputed income. See table D-10, column 9.
3. Social insurance. See table D-11, column 7.
4. Depreciation. See table D-13, column 4.
5. Profits. See table D-15, column 7.
6. Turnover and other indirect taxes. See table D-16, column 6.
7. Subsidies. See table D-16, column 5.
8. Gross national product. This was derived as the sum of columns
1 through 7.
144
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Table D-8
Billion Rubles
Distribution of the State Wage Bill by Sector of Origin, 1970
(1)
Unadjusted
State
Wage Bill
(2) (3)
Adjustments for:
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Adjusted
State
Wage Bill
135.412
49.535
2.539
Repair and
Personal
Care
Housing-
Communal
Economy
Recreation
Civilian
Police
Transpor-
tation
Total
135.412
0
0
0
0
0
0.714
Industry
50.549
-1.728
0
0
0
Ferrous metals
2.502
0
0
0
0
0.037
Nonferrous metals
1.526
0
0
0
0
0.022
0.054
1.548
3.717
1.065
Fuels
3.663
0
0
0
0
Electric power
1.050
0
0
0
0
0.015
Machinery
19.378
-0.197
0
0
0
0.280
19.461
2.613
4.648
Chemicals
2.575
0
0
0
0
0.038
Wood, pulp, and paper
4.623
-0.042
0
0
0
0.067
Construction materials
3.714
0
0
0
0
0.054
3.768
5.174
4.185
0.817
16.889
12.033
10.294
1.545
8.748
32.174
1.765
0.594
2.277
1.176
9.400
5.004
Light industry
6.219
-1.120
0
0
0
0.075
0.060
0.012
0.606
Food industry
4.125
0
0
0
0
Other industry
1.174
-0.369
0
0
0
Construction
16.283
0
0
0
0
Agriculture
10.695
0
0
0
0
1.338
-2.805
Transportation
13.099
0
0
0
0
Communications
1.545
0
o
o
o
o
Trade
8.601
0
0
0
0
0.147
Services
29.211
1.728
0
0
1.235
0
Housing
3.461
0
-1.696
0
0
0
Utilities
0
0
0.594
0
0
0
Repair and personal care
0
1.728
0.549
0
0
0
Recreation
0.469
0
0.103
0.604
0
0
Education
9.400
0
0
0
0
0
Health
5.608
0
0
-0.604
0
0
Science
5.020
0
0
0
0
0
5.020
0.519
Credit and insurance
0.519
0
0
0
0
0
Government administrative services
4.734
0
0.450
0
1.235
0
6.419
General agricultural programs
0.721
0
0
0
0
0
0.721
0.457
2.717
0.839
0.450
1.235
3.380
0.814
Forestry
0.457
0
0
0
0
0
State administration and the
administrative organs of
social organizations
2.717
0
0
0
0
0
Culture
0.839
0
0
0
0
0
Municipal services
0
0
0.450
0
0
0
0
0
Civilian police
0
0
0
0
1.235
Military personnel
3.380
0
0
0
0
Other branches
2.049
0
0
0
1.235
0
145
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Table D-8 (Continued)
Distribution of the State Wage Bill by Sector of Origin, 1970
Sources to this table:
1. Unadjusted state wage bill. The total state wage bill is derived in
table D-6, item 1, as the sum of state wages and salaries (132.032 bil-
lion rubles) and military pay and allowances (3.380 billion rubles).
The services and government administrative services line items are
derived as the sum of their parts. The military personnel line item is
from table D-6, item 1,b. All other line items are from table D-9, col-
umn 3. The line items in table D-9 are the Soviet employment
categories, while those in this table are our GNP sectors. The data
from table D-9 are placed in the GNP sectors in this table which con-
tain most of the wages. Columns 2-6 reallocate wages from the
Soviet categories to conform with the definitions of our GNP sectors.
2. Repair and personal care. The Soviets consider the repair and
custom production of consumer goods to be part of the productive
sphere and include the employees engaged in these activities with the
corresponding branches of industry. In order to estimate the value
added in these services, we reallocate the wages from industry to the
repair and personal care sector. Employment in these services, given
in Vestnik statistiki (no. 8, 1973), p. 95, is assumed to be located in
the following industrial branches in the Soviet employment data:
Soviet Type of Employment
Employment Service (thousands)
Category
Total 1,299
Machinery Repair of durables 122
Wood, pulp, and
paper
Furniture repair
26
Light industry
Shoe repair 138
Repair and tailoring 709
of clothing
Repair of knitwear
Other industry Dry cleaning
Laundries
Photo services
Other services
57
37
66
51
93
In the absence of wage data for these services, it is assumed that the
average monthly wage in each service is the same as the average
monthly wage in its corresponding branch of industry. The wage
rates are shown in table D-9, column 2.
3. Housing-communal economy. Employment in the housing-
communal economy category of the Soviet employment data belong
to the housing, repair and personal care, utilities, recreation, and
municipal services sectors of our GNP accounts. The distribution of
these employees is estimated to be:
Employment
(thousands)
Housing-communal economy
3,052
Housing
1,557
Municipal services
397
Recreation (hotels)
91
Repair and personal care
484
Utilities
523
Employment in the housing and in municipal services are
estimated at 51 and 13 percent, respectively, of total housing-
communal employment (CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 54 and 75). Hotel
employment is from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 42. Repair and personal
care employment is derived as total repair and personal care
employment (1,869,000� Vestnik statistiki, No. 8, 1973, p. 95) less
employment in industrial repair and personal care services
(1,299,000, item 2 above) and less employment in repair and
construction of housing (86,000�Ibid). Utilities employment is
derived as a residual. It is assumed that the average monthly wage
rate for each employment group is 94.5 rubles, the average for the
entire housing-communal economy category (table D-9, column 2).
4. Recreation. The Soviet health category in table D-9 includes
physical culture employment at resorts and sanatoriums, which are
primarily used as vacation spots. Their wages are derived in table
D-4, item 1,b.
5. Civilian police. It is thought that employment in the other
branches of material production category in table D-9 includes
militarized guards and civilian police. Their wages, which are
derived in table D-4, item 2,d,(3), are reallocated here to the civilian
police sector.
6. Transportation. Employment in transportation in table D-9
includes many employees in trucking organizations that are subordi-
nate to enterprises in other sectors of the economy. This activity is
equivalent to force-account trucking in the United States, and the
employees involved are included in the various nontransportation
sectors in US statistics. The primary activities in the Soviet Union
are delivery of construction materials, conveying agricultural
produce, and short-haul delivery of industrial goods.
Using data from the 1966 and 19721-0 tables and various sources
on the different transportation modes, it is estimated that 1.666
million employees were engaged in this type of work in 1970. This
employment is reallocated to other sectors according to ton-
kilometer data for this type of trucking given in Transport i svyaz',
Moscow, Statistika, 1972, p. 221, as shown in the following
tabulation:
Sector
Billion
Ton-
Kilometers
Percent
Employment
(million
persons)
Total
100.0
1.666
Industry
33.1
25.5
0.424
Construction
28.1
21.6
0.360
Agriculture
62.0
47.7
0.795
Trade
6.8
5.2
0.087
The average monthly wage for these employees is assumed to be
140.3 rubles, the rate given in Narkhoz 1979, p. 395, for the
transportation subcategory which includes this type of activity.
Within industry, these wages are allocated proportionally to the
wage bill of each branch of industry.
7. Adjusted state wage bill. This was derived as the sum of columns 1
through 6.
146
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Table D-9
State Wages and Salaries, 1970
(3)
State Wage
Bill
(billion
rubles)
. (1)
Average Annual
Employment
(million
persons)
(2)
Average
Monthly
Wage
(rubles)
Total
90.186
122.0
132.032
Industry
31.593
133.3
50.549
Ferrous metals
1.359
153.4
2.502
Nonferrous metals
0.663
191.8
1.526
Fuels
1.542
198.0
3.663
Electric power
0.633
138.2
1.050
Machinery
12.017
134.4
19.378
Chemicals
1.568
136.9
2.575
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.848
135.3
4.623
Construction materials
2.258
137.1
3.714
Light industry
5.019
103.3
6.219
Food industry
2.901
118.5
4.125
Other industry
0.785
124.6
1.174
Construction
9.052
149.9
16.283
Agriculture
8.833
100.9
10.695
Transportation
7.985
136.7
13.099
Communications
1.330
96.8
1.545
Trade
7.537
95.1
8.601
Other branches of material production
0.998
171.1
2.049
Housing-communal economy
3.052
94.5
3.461
Art
0.412
94.8
0.469
Education
7.246
108.1
9.400
Health
5.080
92.0
5.608
Science
2.999
139.5
5.020
Credit and insurance
0.388
111.4
0.519
General agricultural programs
0.586
102.5
0.721
Forestry
0.433
88.0
0.457
State administration and the administrative organs of
social organizations
1.838
123.2
2.717
Culture
0.824
84.8
0.839
147
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Table D-9 (Continued)
Sources to this table:
1. Average annual employment. All employment data are from
Narkhoz 1979, pp. 387-388, except for the branches of industry
and for general agricultural programs. Employment in the branches
of industry are from Vestnik statistiki, No. 11, 1972, p. 93, except
for the nonferrous metals and other industry branches. Employ-
ment in nonferrous metals is from Steven Rapawy, Civilian Em-
ployment in the U.S.S.R., p. 4. Employment in other industry is
derived as a residual. Employment in general agricultural programs
is derived as the difference between total reported employment in
state agriculture and employment in "state farms, interfarm eco-
nomic enterprises, subsidiary and other productive agricultural
enterprises" (table D-4, item 2,a).
2. Average monthly wage. All average monthly wage rates are from
Narkhoz 1979, pp. 394-395, except for the branches of industry,
other branches of material production, general agricultural pro-
grams, and forestry. The average monthly wage rates in the
branches of industry, except for nonferrous metals, and other
branches of material production, are determined as the state wage
bill in column 3 divided by 12 times the employment in column 1. It
is assumed that the average monthly wage in nonferrous metals is
25 percent higher than that in ferrous metals, based on evidence
from the 1959 and 1966 1-0 tables. The wage rates for general
agricultural programs and forestry are from table D-4, items 2,a
and 2,b.
3. State wage bill. The wage bill in total industry and in each
branch of industry is from Vestnik statistiki, No. 11, 1972, p. 94,
except for the fuels, nonferrous metals, and other industry
branches. The wage bill in nonferrous metals is derived as 12 times
the product of the employment in column 1 and the average wage
rate in column 2. The wage bill in the fuels sector is determined
from relationships among the fuel sectors in the 1972 I-0 table.
The calculations are shown in the following tabulation:
Employment and Wage Data From the
1972 Input-Output Table
(1) (2) (3)
Employ- Total Average
ment Wages Wages per
(thousands) (million Employee
rubles) (rubles)
(4)
Column 3 as
a Percent
of Wages
in the
Coal Sector
(percent)
1970 Employment, Wage, and
Social Security Data
(5) (6)
Average Employ-
Wages ment
per (thou-
Employee sands)
(rubles)
(7) (8) (9)
Total Social Social
Wages Insurance Insurance
(million Rate Deductions
(rubles) (percent) (million
rubles)
Coal 2,682
1,120
3,004
9.0
270
Oil extrac- 1,749
tion
118
206
8.4
17
Oil refining 1,684
132
222
8.4
19
Gas 1,706
36
61
8.4
5
Other fuels 1,247
136
170
8.4
14
Total 2,375
1,542
3,663
8.9
325
All data in columns 1 and 2 are from the 1972 I-0 table. Column 3
is calculated as column 2 divided by column 1. Column 4 is
calculated as column 3 divided by the average annual wage in the
coal sector (3,114 rubles-column 3). The average annual wage rate
in 1970 in the coal sector (column 5) is calculated as column 7
divided by column 6. All other data in column 5 are calculated as col-
umn 4 times the average annual wages in the coal sector in 1970. All
data in column 6, except for other fuels, are from Rapawy, Civilian
Employment in the U.S.S.R., p. 4. Employment in other fuels is
calculated as a residual. All data in column 7, except for coal, are
calculated as column 5 times column 6. The coal entry in column 7 is
from Vestnik statistiki, No. 11, 1972, p. 94. The social insurance
rates in column 8 for coal, oil extraction, oil refining, and gas are
from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 72. It is assumed that the rate for other fu-
els is 8.4 percent. The data in column 9 are derived as column 7 times
column 8.
The wage bill in other industry is derived as a residual. The wage
bills in all nonindustry sectors are derived as column 1 times column
2 times 12, except for other branches of material production, which
is derived as a residual.
Coal
1,001.2
3,118.0
3,114
100.0
Oil extraction
94.3
191.4
2,030
65.2
Oil refining
117.2
229.3
1,956
62.8
Gas
21.3
42.2
1,981
63.6
Other fuels
94.1
136.2
1,447
46.5
Peat
74.4
108.1
1,453
46.7
Oil shales
19.7
28.1
1,426
45.8
Total
1,328.1
3,717.1
2,799
89.9
148
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Table D-10
Billion Rubles
Distribution of Other and Imputed Income by Sector of Origin, 1970
(4) (5)
Administra- Educa-
tive Expenses tion
of Higher
Echelons
(6) (7) (8)
Research Other Unidentified
Identified Money
Incomes Income
(9)
Total
62.251
(1)
State
Wage
Bill
(2)
Social-
Cultural
and Sports
Activities
(3)
Milita-
rized
Guards
Total
135.412
0.162
0.880
1.065
0.400
2.578
49.702
7.464
Industry
49.535
0.075
0.440
0.488
0.183
1.289
0
2.800
5.275
Ferrous metals
2.539
0.004
0.023
0.025
0.009
0.066
0
0.144
0.088
0.271
0.165
Nonferrous metals
1.548
0.002
0.014
0.015
0.006
0.040
0
Fuels
3.717
0.006
0.033
0.037
0.014
0.097
0
0.210
0.397
Electric power
1.065
0.002
0.009
0.011
0.004
0.028
0
0.060
1.099
0.114
2.070
Machinery
19.461
0.029
0.174
0.191
0.071
0.506
0
Chemicals
2.613
0.004
0.023
0.026
0.010
0.068
0
0.148
0.263
0.279
0.495
0.401
Wood, pulp, and paper
4.648
0.007
0.041
0.046
0.017
0.121
0
0
Construction materials
3.768
0.006
0.033
0.037
0.014
0.098
0.213
Light industry
5.174
0.008
0.046
0.051
0.019
0.135
0
0.292
0.551
0.446
0.086
2.669
42.991
1.096
0.164
0.932
5.866
2.011
0.043
0.998
0.568
1.001
0.533
0.312
0.037
0.363
0.041
0.026
0.154
0.047
0.025
0.070
3.200
0.058
Food industry
4.185
0.006
0.037
0.041
0.016
0.109
0
0.237
0.046
Other industry
0.817
0.001
0.007
0.008
0.003
0.021
0
Construction
16.889
0.025
0.150
0.167
0.063
0.440
0.869
0.955
0.680
0.582
0.087
0.495
1.819
Agriculture
12.033
0.018
0.107
0.119
0.045
0.313
41.709
0
0
0
Transportation
10.294
0.015
0.091
0.102
0.038
0.268
Communications
1.545
0.002
0.014
0.015
0.006
0.040
Trade
8.748
0.013
0.078
0.086
0.032
0.228
Services
32.174
0.013
0
0.080
0.030
0
3.924
Housing
1.765
0.003
0
0.017
0.007
0
1.884
0
0.836
0.100
0.034
0.129
Utilities
0.594
0.001
0
0.006
0.002
0
Repair and personal care
2.277
0.003
0
0.022
0.008
0
Recreation
1.176
0.002
0
0.012
0.004
0
0.484
0.470
0.250
0
0
0.066
0.531
0.283
0.284
0.029
0.363
0.041
0.026
0.154
0.047
0.025
0.070
0
0.046
Education
9.400
0
0
0
0
0
0
Health
5.004
0
0
0
0
Science
5.020
0.003
0
0.018
0.007
0
Credit and insurance
0.519
0.001
0
0.005
0.002
0
Government administrative
services
6.419
0
0
0
0
0
0
General agricultural
programs
0.721
0
0
0
0
0
0
Forestry
0.457
0
0
0
0
0
0
State administration and
the administrative organs
of social organizations
2.717
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Culture
0.839
0
0
0
0
0
Municipal services
0.450
0
0
0
0
0
Civilian police
1.235
0
0
0
0
0
0
3.200
Military personnel
3.380
0
0
0
0
0
Other branches
0.814
0.001
0
0.008
0.003
0
0
149
93-892 - 82 - 11
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Table D-10 (Continued)
Sources to this table:
I. State wage bill. See table D-8, column 7.
2. Social-cultural and sports activities. The total is derived in table
D-3, item 2,d as 0.15 percent of the wage bill of khozraschet
enterprises. The values for each sector are also calculated as 0.15
percent of the wage bill, using the same proxy for khozraschet
enterprises as in table D-3, item 2,d. The budget allocation for
science in 1970, net of investment, was 6.425 billion rubles
(Narkhoz 1977, p. 562). Therefore, the estimated wage bill of
khozraschet science enterprises is 5.020 billion rubles less 3.212
billion rubles, or 1.808 billion rubles.
3. Militarized guards. The total is derived in table D-3, item 2,e. It
is distributed proportionally to the wage bills of the sectors in the
productive sphere (industry, construction, agriculture, transporta-
tion, communications, and trade)�the sectors most likely to hire
guard services.
4. Administrative expenses of higher echelons. The total is derived
in table D-3, item 2,f. It is distributed proportionally to the wage
bills of khozraschet enterprises as in item 2 above.
5. Education. The total is derived in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 46. It is
distributed proportionally to the wage bills of khozraschet enter-
prises as in item 2 above.
6. Research. The total is derived in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 46. It is
distributed proportionally to the wage bills of the productive sectors
as in item 3 above.
7. Other identified incomes.
Construction, 0.869 billion rubles, is the sum of private earnings in
construction, table D-1, item 4,a,(1), and the imputed value of
owner-supplied construction services, table D-1, item 6.
Agriculture, 41.709 billion rubles, is the net income of households
from agriculture, table D-1, item 2.
Housing, 1.884 billion rubles, is the sum of private earnings in
housing repair, table D-1, item 4,a,(2),(a), and imputed net rent,
table D-1, item 5.
Repair and personal care, 0.836 billion rubles, is derived in table D-
1, item 4,a,(2),(b).
Recreation, 0.484 billion rubles, is derived in table D-1, item
4,a,(2),(c).
Health, 0.470 billion rubles, is derived in table D-1, item 4,a,(2),(d).
Education, 0.250 billion rubles, is derived in table D-1, item
4,a,(2),(e).
Military personnel, 3.200 billion rubles, is a CIA estimate of
subsistence (food and clothing) expenditures.
8. Unidentified money income. The total, 7.464 billion rubles, is
derived in table D-1, item 4,b. It is distributed proportionally to the
wage bill in column 1.
9. Total. This is derived as the sum of columns 2 through 8.
150
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Table D-11
Distribution of Social Insurance Deductions by Sector of Origin, 1970
(5)
(6)
(7)
Adjusted
Social
Insurance
(1)
Unadjusted
Social
Insurance
(2) (3)
Adjustments for
(4)
Repair and
Personal
Care
Housing-
Communal
Economy
Recreation
Civilian
Police
Trans-
portation
Total
9.436
0
0
0
0
0
9.436
Industry
3.653
-0.120
0
0
0
0.038
3.571
Ferrous metals
0.198
0
0
0
0
0.002
0.200
Nonferrous metals
0.121
o
o
o
o
0.001
0.122
Fuels
0.325
o
o
o
0
0.003
0.328
Electric power
0.069
0
0
0
0
0.001
0.070
Machinery
1.492
-0.015
0
0
0
0.014
1.491
Chemicals
0.216
0
0
0
0
0.002
0.218
Wood, pulp, and paper
0.217
-0.002
0
0
0
0.004
0.219
Construction materials
0.227
0
0
0
0
0.003
0.230
Light industry
0.423
-0.076
0
0
0
0.004
0.351
Food industry
0.280
0
0
0
0
0.003
0.283
Other industry
0.085
-0.027
0
0
0
0.001
0.059
Construction
0.993
0
0
0
0
0.032
1.025
Agriculture
1.625
0
0
0
0
0.071
1.696
Transportation
0.694
0
0
0
0
-0.149
0.545
Communications
0.082
0
0
0
0
0
0.082
Trade
0.387
0
0
0
0
0.008
0.395
Services
1.566
0.120
0
0
0.086
0
1.772
Housing
0.163
0
-0.080
0
0
0
0.083
Utilities
0
0.028
0
0
0
0.028
Repair and personal care
0
0.120
0.026
0
0
0
0.146
Recreation
0.026
0
0.005
0.033
0
0
0.064
Education
0.517
0
0
0
0
0
0.517
Health
0.308
o
o
-0.033
0
0
0.275
Science
0.276
0
0
0
0
0
0.276
Credit and insurance
0.029
0
0
0
0
0
0.029
Government administrative
services
0.247
0
0.021
0
0.086
0
0.354
General agricultural
programs
0.032
0
0
0
0
0
0.032
151
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Table D-11 (Continued)
Distribution of Social Insurance Deductions by Sector of Origin, 1970
(1)
Unadjusted
Social
Insurance
(2) (3)
Adjustments for
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Adjusted
Social
Insurance
Repair and
Personal
Care
Housing-
Communal
Economy
Recreation
Civilian
Police
Trans-
portation
Forestry
0.020
0
0
0
0
0
0.020
State administration and the
administrative organs of
social organizations
0.149
0
0
0
0
0
0.149
Culture
0.046
0
0
0
0
0
0.046
Municipal services
0
0
0.021
0
0
0
0.021
Civilian police
0
0
0
0
0.086
0
0.086
Military personnel
0.240
0
0
0
0
0
0.240
Other branches
0.196
0
0
0
�0.086
0
0.110
Sources to this table:
I. Unadjusted social insurance. This is derived from table D-12
except for the values for the total and for agriculture. The
agriculture entry is derived as the agriculture value in table D-12
plus: (1) collective farm payments into the All-Union Social Insur-
ance Fund for Collective Farmers (0.356 billion rubles�CIA, GNP
1970, p. 46); (2) collective farm payments into the All-Union Social
Security Fund for Collective Farmers (0.780 billion rubles�Ibid);
and (3) social insurance charges paid on wages of hired agricultural
workers (0.018 billion rubles�Ibid, p. 66). The value for the total
entry is the sum of the entries in column 1. The line item data from
table D-12 are assigned to the same GNP categories as were the
wage data in table D-8.
2-6. Adjustments to social insurance deductions. The adjustments
made to the social insurance deductions are analogous to the
adjustments made to the wage bill in table D-8.
7. Adjusted social insurance. This was derived as the sum of
columns 1 through 6.
152
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Table D-12
Social Insurance Deductions, 1970
Total
Industry
Ferrous metals
Nonferrous metals
Fuels
Electric power
Machinery
Chemicals
Wood, pulp, and paper
Construction materials
Light industry
Food industry
Other industry
Construction
Agriculture
Transportation
Communications
Trade
Other branches of
material production
Housing-communal economy
Art
Education
Health
Science
Credit and insurance
General agricultural programs
Forestry
State administration and the
administrative organs of
social organizations
Culture
Military personnel
(I) "
State Wage
Bill
(billion rubles)
(2)
Social
Insurance
Rate
(percent)
(3)
Social
Insurance
Deductions
(billion rubles)
135.412
6.1
8.282
50.549
7.2
3.653
2.502
7.9
0.198
1.526
7.9
0.121
3.663
8.9
0.325
1.050
6.6
0.069
19.378
7.7
1.492
2.575
8.4
0.216
4.623
4.7
0.217
3.714
6.1
0.227
6.219
6.8
0.423
4.125
6.8
0.280
1.174
7.2
0.085
16.283
6.1
0.993
10.695
4.4
0.471
�13.099
5.3
0.694
1.545
5.3
0.082
8.601
4.5
0.387
2.049
9.6
0.196
3.461
4.7
0.163
0.469
5.5
0.026
9.400
5.5
0.517
5.608
5.5
0.308
5.020
5.5
0.276
0.519
5.5
0.029
0.721
4.4
0.032
0.457
4.4
0.020
2.717
5.5
0.149
0.046
0.839
5.5
3.380
7.0
0.240
Sources to this table:
1. State wage bill. This was derived from table D-9, column 3,
except the total wage bill and military personnel, which are from
table D-8, column 1.
2. Social insurance rate. The social insurance rates are from CIA,
GNP 1970, p. 72, except for the total, total industry, fuels, other
industry, other branches of material production, and military
personnel. The rates for the total, fuels, and other branches of
material production are derived as column 3, divided by column 1.
153
The rates for other industry and total industry are derived as an
average of the other branches of industry as described in CIA, GNP
1970, p. 73. The rate for military personnel is a CIA estimate.
3. Social insurance deductions. Total social insurance deductions
are derived in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 46. Deductions in the fuels sector
are derived above in the sources for table D-9. All other sectors,
except for other branches of material production, are determined as
the product of column 1 and column 2. The value for other
branches of material production is determined as a residual.
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Table D-13 Billion Rubles Except as Noted
Depreciation by Sector of Origin, 1970
(1)
Employment
in Khozraschet
Enterprises
(million persons)
(2)
Depreciation
(3)
Housing
Depreciation
(4)
Depreciation
Net of Housing
Depreciation
Total
69.856
31.827
1.318
31.827
Industry
30.718
15.472
0.579
14.893
Ferrous metals
1.381
1.456
0.026
1.430
Nonferrous metals
0.676
0.811
0.013
0.798
Fuels
1.574
2.351
0.030
2.321
Electric power
0.642
1.614
0.012
1.602
Machinery
12.060
3.475
0.228
3.247
Chemicals
1.591
1.180
0.030
1.150
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.862
1.131
0.054
1.077
Construction materials
2.290
1.006
0.043
0.963
Light industry
4.160
0.518
0.078
0.440
Food industry
2.937
1.346
0.055
1.291
Other industry
0.545
0.584
0.010
0.574
Construction
9.412
2.325
0.178
2.147
Agriculture
9.628
5.713
0.182
5.531
Transportation
6.319
5.200
0.119
5.081
Communications
1.330
0.408
0.025
0.383
Trade
7.624
1.467
0.144
1.323
Services
4.825
1.196
0.091
2.423
Housing
0
0
0
1.318
Utilities
0.524
0.318
0.010
0.308
Repair and personal care
1.783
0.227
0.034
0.193
Recreation
1.050
0.304
0.020
0.284
Education
o
o
o
o
Health
Science
1.080
0.185
0.020
0.165
Credit and insurance
0.388
0.162
0.007
0.155
Government administrative services
0
0
0
0
General agricultural programs
Forestry
State administration and the administrative organs of social
organizations
0
0
0
0
Culture
Municipal services
Civilian police
0
0
0
0
Military personnel
o
o
o
o
Other branches
0
0.046
o
0.045
154
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Sources to this table:
1. Employment in khozraschet enterprises. The same proxy for
khozraschet enterprises is used here as in table D-3, item 2,d. The
total employment data from table D-9 are adjusted in the same
manner as the wage data in table D-8, and then employment in the
budgetary sectors is deleted. Employment in khozraschet science
enterprises is estimated in the same manner as wages in the sources
for table D-10, column 2.
2. Depreciation. Total depreciation is from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 49.
Depreciation for total industry and each branch of industry is taken
from table D-14 with adjustments made for depreciation in produc-
tive repair and personal care services, and for urban electric power
distribution. Depreciation in the repair and personal care services
included in Soviet industrial statistics is calculated by assuming
that the capital-labor ratio in these services is one-half of the
nonservice component of the same branch of industry and that the
depreciation rate is the same. Depreciation in urban electric power
is based on a distribution of the capital stock of the communal
economy (see services below).
Depreciation in construction is the sum of reported deductions in
construction (2.313 billion rubles�Narkhoz 1978, p. 532) plus a
share of the amortization deductions of consumer cooperatives.
Altough consumer cooperatives are primarily engaged in retail
trade activity, they do conduct activities belonging to other sectors.
According to P. I. Vakhrin (Formirovaniye osnovykh fondov
kooperativnoy torgovli, Moscow, Ekonomika, 1974, p. 88), the
capital stock of consumer cooperatives on 1 January 1971 was
distributed as shown in column 1 of the tabulation below:
Sector
(1) (2)
Capital Depreci-
Stock on ation
1 January Rate
1971 (percent)
(billion
rubles)
(3)
Calculated
Depreci-
ation
(million
rubles)
(4)
Percent
of
Column
3
(5)
Depreci-
ation
(million
rubles)
Trade
5,208
5.8
302
72.4
266
Industry
1,239
7.6
94
22.5
83
Agriculture
118
6.1
7
1.7
6
Construc-
tion
94
15.1
14
3.4
12
Total
6,659
6.3
417
100.0
367
The depreciation rates in column 2 are from the 1972 I-0 table.
Column 3 is column 1 times column 2 and column 4 shows the
percentage distribution of column 3. Column 5 is column 4 times the
total, 367 million rubles (Narkhoz 1978, p. 532).
155
Depreciation in agriculture is the sum of reported deductions in
agriculture (2.985 billion rubles�Narkhoz 1978, p. 532), a share of
the deductions by consumer cooperatives (0.006 billion rubles�see
construction above), and deductions made by kolkhozy (2.722 billion
rubles�CIA, GNP 1970, p. 49). Depreciation in communications is
from Ibid. p. 68. Depreciation in transportation is the total reported
for transportation and communications (5.410 billion rubles�
Narkhoz 1978, p. 532), less depreciation in communications (above),
plus the depreciation on urban transportation recorded with the
communal economy (0.198 billion rubles�see services below).
Depreciation in trade is the sum of reported deductions in retail
trade (0.443 billion rubles�Narkhoz 1978, p. 532), supply and
sales (0.530 billion rubles�Ibid), agricultural procurement (0.228
billion rubles�Ibid), and consumer cooperatives (0.266 billion
rubles�see construction above).
Depreciation in services is the sum of its components.
Depreciation in utilities is based on a distribution of the capital
stock of the communal economy:
Sector
(I)
Capital Stock on
1 January 1971
(million rubles)
(2)
Percent of
Column 1
(3)
Depreciation
(million
rubles)
Total
7,784
100.0
626
Utilities
3,951
50.8
318
Water and
sewer
3,010
38.7
242
Gas
941
12.1
76
Transportation
2,458
31.6
198
Subways
1,449
18.6
117
Trams and
buses
1,009
13.0
81
Electric power
700
9.0
56
Baths and
laundries
204
2.6
16
Hotels
471
6.1
38
Depreciation in repair and personal care is the sum of depreciation
in baths and laundries (0.016 billion rubles�above) and the
depreciation deducted from industry for repair and personal care
services as described above. Depreciation in recreation is the sum of
depreciation in hotels (0.038 billion rubles�above) and a part of the
depreciation recorded under "other branches" in the Narkhoz data.
Other branches is assumed to include parts of the recreation (art, and
resorts), science, credit and insurance, and other branches of
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Table D-13 (Continued)
Sources to this table (Continued):
material production sectors (0.659 billion rubles�Narkhoz p. 532).
The other branches depreciation was allocated among these sectors
based on some very rough capital stock estimates as follows:
Billion Rubles
Total
0.659
Recreation
0.266
Science
0.185
Credit and insurance
0.162
Other branches of material production
0.046
3. Housing depreciation. Total housing depreciation is from Yu. V.
Peshekhonov, ed., Razvitiye ifmnansirovaniye obshchestvennikh
fondov potrebleniya, Moscow, Finansy, 1978, p. 220. Housing
depreciation is not separately identified in the Narkhoz data.
Instead, it is thought to be combined with the depreciation of the sec-
tors that operate the housing. It is assumed here that housing
depreciation is distributed proportionally to employment in khozras-
chet enterprises (column 1).
4. Depreciation net of housing depreciation. This is column 2 less
column 3 except for the total, services, and housing lines. Housing
depreciation is the total line item in column 3. The total and service
lines are the sum of their parts.
156
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Table D-14
Distribution of Amortization Deductions by Branch of Industry, 1970
(6)
Structure of
Depreciation
(percent)
(7)
Adjusted
Depreciation
(billion rubles)
Fixed Capital
(4)
Depreciation
Rate
(percent)
(5)
Depreciation
(billion
rubles)
(1)
End 1969
(billion
rubles)
(2)
End 1970
(billion
rubles)
(3)
Average [970
(billion
rubles)
Industry
207.9
227.6
214.795
7.4
15.895
100.000
15.627
Ferrous metals
19.9
21.8
20.565
7.2
1.481
9.317
5.190
1.456
0.811
2.351
1.558
3.493
1.180
1.136
1.006
0.574
Nonferrous metals
10.0
10.9
10.315
8.0
0.825
Fuels
27.0
29.3
27.805
8.6
2.391
15.042
9.972
22.359
7.550
Electric power
28.9
31.8
29.915
5.3
1.585
Machinery
44.2
49.8
46.160
7.7
3.554
Chemicals
16.3
18.7
17.140
7.0
1.200
Wood, pulp, and paper
11.2
12.2
11.550
10.0
1.155
7.266
Construction materials
12.3
13.7
12.790
8.0
1.023
6.436
Light industry
8.4
9.3
8.715
6.7
0.584
3.674
Food industry
17.9
18.9
18.250
7.5
1.369
8.613
1.346
0.716
Other industry
11.8
11.2
11.590
6.3
0.728
4.580
Sources for this table:
I. Fixed capital-end 1969. This item represents the fixed capital
of industry in 1955 prices on 1 January 1970. All values, except for
nonferrous metals and other industry, are from Constance B.
Krueger, USSR: Gross Fixed Capital, unpublished, May 1976,
table 3. The capital stock of nonferrous metals is assumed to be
one-half that of ferrous metals. The capital stock of other industry
is derived as a residual.
2. Fixed capital-end 1970. This item is derived in the same
manner as column 1.
3. Fixed capital-average 1970. Each entry is computed as column
1 plus 35 percent of the difference between column 2 and column 1.
This is the formula used by Gosplan to compute the average value
of fixed capital and reflects the fact that more than half of new
fixed capital is commissioned in the second half of the year
(Ukazaniya, p. 27).
157
4. Depreciation rate.This is derived from Narkhoz 1970, p. 171,
except for nonferrous metals and other industry. Nonferrous metals
is determined from the ferrous metals rate of 7.2 percent, and the
ratio of the nonferrous metals and ferrous metals depreciation rates
in the 1966 1-0 table. The other industry rate is determined as
column 5 divided by column 3.
5. Depreciation. This is column 3 times column 4 except for other
industry, which is derived as a residual.
6. Structure of depreciation. This is column 5 in percentage terms.
7. Adjusted depreciation. Depreciation for total industry is derived
as the sum of reported amortization deduction in industry (15.544
billion rubles-Narkhoz 1978, p. 532) and amortization deductions
of consumer cooperatives on industrial capital (0.083 billion ru-
bles--see the sources to column 2 of table D- 13).
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Table D-15
Distribution of Profits by Sector of Origin, 1970
(1)
Reported
Profits
(billion
rubles)
(2)
Bonuses
(billion
rubles)
(3)
"Net"
Profits
(billion
rubles)
(4)
Adjustment
Factor for
Industrial
Profits
(5)
Adjusted
"Net"
Profits
(billion
rubles)
(6)
Other
Net
Income
(billion
rubles)
(7)
Total
Profits
(billion
rubles)
Total
84.621
5.030
79.591
79.591
9.563
89.154
Industry
55.695
3.310
52.385
1.000
52.385
o
52.385
Ferrous metals
3.999
0.238
3.761
0.892
3.355
0
3.355
Nonferrous metals
2.699
0.160
2.539
0.914
2.321
0
2.321
Fuels
5.229
0.311
4.918
0.786
3.866
0
3.866
Electric power
3.601
0.214
3.387
0.731
2.476
0
2.476
Machinery
13.850
0.823
13.027
1.089
14.186
0
14.186
Chemicals
3.708
0.220
3.488
1.126
3.927
0
3.927
Wood, pulp, and paper
2.579
0.153
2.426
1.289
3.127
0
3.127
Construction materials
1.611
0.096
1.515
1.057
1.601
0
1.601
Light industry
6.685
0.397
6.288
1.000
6.288
0
6.288
Food industry
7.350
0.437
6.913
0.998
6.899
0
6.899
Other industry
4.384
0.261
4.123
1.052
4.339
0
4.339
Construction
4.736
0.282
4.454
4.454
0
4.454
Agriculture
4.935
0.293
4.642
4.642
7.852
12.494
Transportation
10.718
0.637
10.081
10.081
0
10.081
Communications
0.840
0.050
0.790
0.790
0
0.790
Trade
5.737
0.341
5.396
5.396
1.283
6.679
Services
1.860
0.111
1.749
1.749
0.428
2.177
Housing
0
0
0
0
0
0
Utilities
0.770
0.046
0.724
0.724
0
0.724
Repair and personal care
0.400
0.024
0.376
0.376
0
0.376
Recreation
0.040
0.002
0.038
0.038
0.428
0.466
Education
0
0
0
0
0
0
Health
0
0
0
0
0
0
Science
0.100
0.006
0.094
0.094
0
0.094
Credit and insurance
0.550
0.033
0.517
0.517
0
0.517
Government administrative services
0
0
0
0
0
0
General agricultural programs
0
0
0
0
0
0
Forestry
0
0
0
0
0
0
State administration
and the administrative
organs of social organizations
0
0
Culture
Municipal services
Civilian police
0
0
0
0
0
0
Military personnel
0
0
0
0
0
0
Other branches
0.100
0.006
0.094
0.094
0
0.094
158
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Sources to this table:
1. Reported prcifits. Total profits are the reported value for all state
enterprises (85.668 billion rubles�Narkhoz, p. 541) less net insur-
ance premiums (1.047 billion rubles�CIA, VNF 1970, p. 46). The
values for each sector are from Narkhoz 1977, pp. 541 and 543
with the following exceptions:
� Profits in the nonferrous metals sector are estimated in CIA,
GNP 1970, p. 70.
� Profits in the electric power sector include the profits of the urban
electric power system (0.137 billion rubles). These profits are
assumed to be included with the reported profits of the communal
economy (0.984 billion rubles�Narkhoz 1977, p. 541) which are
allocated based on some data for the RSFSR as follows:
Total
0.984
Electric power
0.137
Other utilities
0.770
Repair and personal care
0.002
Recreation
0.040
Urban transportation
0.035
� Profits of the machinery; wood, pulp, and paper; light industry; and
other industry sectors are reduced by arbitrary estimates of profits
in repair and personal care services. Total repair and personal care
profits are arbitrarily estimated at 0.400 billion rubles based on
scattered republic data, of which 0.002 are included in the profits
of the communal economy (above). The remaining amount is
distributed as follows:
Total
0.398
Machinery
0.037
Wood, pulp, and paper
0.008
Light industry
0.277
Other industry
0.076
� Profits in the other industry sector are computed as a residual.
� Communications profits are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 67.
� Transportation profits are computed as total profits in transporta-
tion and communications (11.523 billion rubles�Narkhoz 1977,
p. 541), less profits in communications (above), plus profits in urban
transportation (above).
� Trade profits are the sum of profits in trade, supply and sales, and
agricultural procurement.
� Utilities profits are estimated as a share of the profits of the
communal economy (above).
� Profits in the science, credit and insurance, and other branches of
material production sectors are assumed to be components of the
other branches category in the Narkhoz profit data. The reported
profits of this category (1.797 billion rubles�Narkhoz 1977, p.
541) are reduced by net insurance premiums (1.047 billion rubles).
159
The remainder (0.750 billion rubles) is divided arbitrarily as
follows:
Total
0.750
Science
0.100
Credit and insurance
0.550
Other branches of material
production
0.100
2. Bonuses. Total bonuses are from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 45. The to-
tal is distributed among the sectors based on the assumption that
the ratio of bonuses to reported profits is the same in each sector.
3. Wet"pro/its. This is column 1 less column 2.
4. Adjustment for industrial profits. It is believed that the profit
data in the Narkhoz are reported on a ministry basis. The data in
this column represent the ratio of profits on a commodity basis to
profits on a ministry basis in the branches of industry as estimated
in V. D. Belkin (ed.), Model' "dokhod-tovary" i balans narodnogo
khozyaystva, Moscow, Nauka, 1978, p. 119.
5. Adjusted "net" profits. This is column 4 times column 3 for the
branches of industry, column 3 for all other entries.
6. Other net income. The value for agriculture represents the sum
of retained income and income taxes of collective farms (table D-3,
items 1,a and 3,a). The values for trade and recreation represent
the sum of retained profits and income taxes of consumer
cooperatives and other organizations, respectively.
7. Total profits. This is column 5 plus column 6.
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Table D-16
Billion Rubles
Distribution of Turnover and Other Indirect Taxes by Sector of Origin, 1970
(4)
Other
Miscellaneous
Charges
(5)
Subsidies
(6)
Total
Turnover
and Other
Indirect
Taxes
(I)
Turnover
Taxes
(2)
Other
Identified
Indirect
Taxes
(3)
Income
From
Foreign
Trade
Total
53.346
1.845
7.581
14.960
-22.553
77.732
Industry
53.346
1.705
6.822
6.988
-18.688
68.861
Ferrous metals
0.059
0
-0.717
0.295
0
-0.363
Nonferrous metals
0
0
-0.383
0.189
0
-0.194
Fuels
4.630
0
-0.763
0.600
0
4.467
0.663
Electric power
0.477
0
-0.052
0.238
0
Machinery
3.200
1.260
-0.512
1.820
-0.432
5.768
Chemicals
0.494
0
1.131
0.391
-0.365
2.016
Wood, pulp, and paper
0.198
0.445
0.305
0.435
0
1.383
Construction materials
0.296
0
0.123
0.306
0
0.725
Light industry
17.795
0
6.736
1.326
-5.306
25.857
Food industry
25.283
0
0.820
1.121
-12.110
27.224
Other industry
0.914
0
0.134
0.267
-0.475
1.315
Construction
0
0
0
1.125
0
1.125
3.836
Agriculture
0
0.030
0.683
3.123
0
Transportation
0
0
0
1.121
0
1.121
Communications
0
0
0
0.107
-0.370
0.107
Trade
0
0
0
0.726
-0.530
0.726
Services
0
0.063
0
1.723
-2.845
1.786
Housing
0
0.063
0
0.131
-2.086
0.194
Utilities
0
0
0
0.070
0
0.070
Repair and personal care
0
0
0
0.165
0
0.165
Recreation
0
0
0
0.074
-0.759
0.074
Education
0
0
0
0.452
0
0.452
Health
0
0
0
0.241
0
0.241
Science
0
0
0
0.243
0
0.243
Credit and insurance
0
0
0
0.052
0
0.052
Government administrative services
0
0
0
0.295
0
0.295
General agricultural programs
0
0
0
0.033
0
0.033
Forestry
0
0
0
0.021
0
0.021
State administration and the admin-
istrative organs of social organizations
0
0.124
0
0.124
Culture
0
0
0
0.039
0
0.039
0.021
0.057
Municipal services
0
0
0
0.021
0
Civilian police
0
0
0
0.057
0
Military personnel
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.170
Other branches
0
0.047
0.076
0.047
-0.120
160
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Sources to this table:
I. Turnover taxes. Total turnover taxes are from table D-3, item
3,e. Of this amount, 3.966 billion rubles is the difference between
gross and net turnover taxes as reported in Gosbyudzhet 1972, p.
14. This difference represents subsidies of various kinds paid from
tax receipts, mainly children's clothing. The entire amount is
allocated to the light industry sector. The distribution of the net
turnover taxes (49.380 billion rubles) is estimated primarily from
two sources. Taxes collected in the machinery, light industry, food
industry, and the petroleum part of the fuels sector are from P. E.
Kuchkin and N. N. Morozov, Chistiy dokhod sotsialisticheskogo
obshchestva, Moscow, Finansy, 1974, pp. 155-156. Taxes collected
in the ferrous metals; electric power; wood, pulp, and paper;
construction materials; and the gas component of the fuels sector
are taken or calculated from data in A. Tret'yakova, Nalog s
oborota v 1972, unpublished, 1978. Taxes collected in the chemi-
cals sector are assumed to be 1 percent of the total, and taxes
collected in the other industry sector are calculated as a residual.
2. Other identified indirect taxes. The total, industry, and services
line items are the sum of their parts. The machinery line item is the
sum of price markups on radio and television sets and surcharges on
agricultural machinery (table D-3, item 3,0. The wood, pulp, and
paper and other branches line items are stumpage fees paid by these
sectors for harvested wood. The fees are recorded as forestry
income in the state budget (table D-3, item 3,f). Total forestry
income (0.492 billion rubles) is divided between the wood, pulp, and
paper and the other branches sectors on the basis of data from the
1972 Soviet 1-0 table which shows these fees as sales of the forestry
sector. The agriculture line item is indirect taxes paid by kolkhozy
and sovkhozy (CIA, GNP 1970, p. 68). The housing line item is
rental payments paid by the trade sector for space in housing units
used for retail trade outlets.
3. Income from foreign trade. Income from foreign trade is based
on detailed estimates of foreign trade in 1970 valued in foreign
trade rubles and the ratio of foreign trade prices to domestic prices
by input-output category. First the 1970 foreign trade data in
foreign trade prices were allocated to input-output sectors based on
the procedures set out in Treml and Kostinsky, The Domestic
Value of Foreign Trade: Exports and Imports in the 1972 Input-
Output Table. Then the price ratios calculated in that report for
each 1-0 sector were used to convert the values in foreign trade
prices to domestic prices. The two sets of data were then aggregated
from I-0 sectors to GNP sectors. Each entry in this column
represents net imports in domestic prices less net imports in foreign
trade prices. The total exports and imports in domestic prices
calculated in this manner were slightly different from the values
published by Treml and Kostinsky. The domestic price data were
scaled proportionally to equal their control totals.
4. Other miscellaneous charges. Total other miscellaneous charges
are from table D-3, item 3,f. The total is distributed among all
sectors on the basis of their shares in total value added less this
item.
161
5. Subsidies. Total subsidies and most of the line items are from
table D-3, item 4. The subsidy on agricultural machinery is
allocated to the machinery sector; the fertilizer subsidy to the
chemicals sector; and the processed feeds subsidy to the other
industry sector. The subsidy for price differences on the procure-
ment of agricultural products by industry is divided between the
light industry, food industry, and trade sectors based on the
detailed estimates in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 49. The subsidies on wool
(0.14 billion rubles), cotton (1.15 billion rubles), and half of the
subsidy on sunflower and other oil seeds, hemp, flax, kenaf, and
hides (0.05 billion rubles) were allocated to the light industry. The
subsidy on fresh vegetables was allocated to the trade sector. The
remainder (12.110 billion rubles) was allocated to the food industry.
Payments from gross turnover taxes were allocated to light indus-
try. The subsidy on art and radiobroadcasting was divided between
the communications (0.370 billion rubles) and recreation (0.258
billion rubles) sectors. The subsidy for price reductions in retail
trade was allocated to the trade sector. The subsidies on housing,
recreation, and the press were allocated to the housing, recreation,
and other branches sectors, respectively.
6. Total turnover and other indirect taxes. This is the sum of
columns 1 through 4.
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Appendix E
Conversion of 1970 GNP
From Established Prices
to Factor-Cost Prices
The 1970 GNP data in established prices are convert-
ed to factor-cost prices in four steps: (1) arrangement
of the established-price data in a format compatible
with Soviet input-output (1-0) definitions, (2) conver-
sion of the established-price data to producers' prices,
(3) estimation of a 1970 1-0 table in producers' prices
consistent with the GNP data, and (4) use of the 1-0
table to convert the GNP data in producers' prices to
factor-cost prices. This appendix describes all four
steps.
I-0 tables are used to associate changes in value
added by sector of origin with changes in end use
expenditures. The conversion from established prices
to factor-cost prices involves (1) the elimination of
those elements of prices which do not reflect payments
for factors of production (land, labor, and capital) or
for goods and services used in the production process
and (2) the reestimation of payments for capital
services (profits and depreciation) to provide an equal
rate of return on capital in all sectors. Because both
types of changes involve the value-added component
of a sector's prices, they directly affect the prices of
the goods produced by that sector, whether the goods
are delivered directly to final end uses or are pur-
chased by other sectors. Changes in value added,
therefore, change the prices of all final goods either
directly or indirectly. Taking account of the direct
and indirect sources of price changes for the elements
of GNP by end use requires information on the
structure of each sector's purchases of intermediate
goods and services. It is this information which is
included in an I-0 table and which leads us to
estimate a 1970 I-0 table. (For a description of 1-0
tables in general and Soviet 1-0 tables in particular,
see Vladimir G. Treml, Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L.
Kostinsky, and Kurt W. Kruger, The Structure of the
Soviet Economy: Analysis and Reconstruction of the
1966 Input-Output Table, New York, Praeger Pub-
lishers, 1972.)
163
Arranging the GNP Data in an 1-0 Format
The first step in the construction of a 1970 I-0 table
is to fill in as much of the table as possible with the
available information. In this case, the value-added
quadrant of the I-0 table can be filled in using sector-
of-origin GNP data. Values in the final demand
quadrant rely on end-use GNP data. (For a discussion
of the relationship between GNP and an 1-0 table, see
Philip M. Ritz, "The Input-Output Structure of the
U.S. Economy, 1972," Survey of Current Business,
February 1981, pp. 34-37.) In addition, gross output
data can be estimated from published Soviet data.
Putting the GNP data into a Soviet 1-0 table requires
two sets of adjustments. First, the definitions of our
GNP sectors often differ from the Soviet definitions
of the corresponding I-0 sectors, and the data must be
adjusted accordingly. Second, a Soviet 1-0 table
includes only the so-called productive sectors. We
therefore have to rearrange our GNP data for the
nonproductive sectors to conform with the Soviet
treatment of such data in their 1-0 tables. This
section summarizes these two adjustments.
In order to conform with the definitions of Soviet 1-0
sectors we have made the following changes to the
sector-of-origin GNP data in table D-6:
� The value added of the repair and personal care
services included in Soviet industrial statistics was
transferred to the machinery; wood, pulp, and pa-
per; light industry; and other industry sectors.
� The value added of the utilities sector connected
with water and sewage services was transferred to
the other industry sector, and the value added
connected with urban gas distribution was trans-
ferred to the transportation sector.
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� The output of the forestry sector is redefined. In our
GNP accounts, the entire output of the forestry
sector is treated as a final expenditure and the
stumpage fees paid by the wood, pulp, and paper
and other branches sectors are included in the value
added of those sectors. Soviet I-0 tables define the
stumpage fees as sales of the forestry sector. Sales to
final demand by forestry are the difference between
the gross output of the sector and first quadrant
sales.
� The general agricultural programs sector was aggre-
gated with the agriculture sector and redefined. It
appears that this activity is reflected in an I-0 table
in value added as a subsidy rather than as a final
demand expenditure.
� The subsidy on fresh vegetables, part of the value
added of the trade sector in GNP, is transferred to
the agriculture sector.
� The productive and nonproductive portions of the
transportation and communications sectors were
estimated and regrouped to form a productive trans-
portation and communications sector and a separate
nonproductive sector.
� The value added in the ferrous and nonferrous
metals branches was aggregated to match the ag-
gregate metallurgy sector in the 1972 I-0 table.
� Income from foreign trade was deleted.
The end-use GNP data show total expenditures for
various goods and services but do not show which
sector of the economy produced them. Thus, the end-
use data must be disaggregated in order to fill in the
final-demand quadrant. Each column in the con-
structed final-demand quadrant shows the expendi-
tures for a given end-use category of GNP. Each row
shows the sales of an I-0 sector to each end-use
category. In many cases, such as transportation, all of
the end-use expenditures represent purchases from the
sector of the same title. In other cases, such as soft
goods, most expenditures were for the output of one
sector (light industry in this case). In a few cases, such
as inventory change, essentially arbitrary choices had
to be made. In disaggregating the expenditure catego-
ries, the allocations followed Soviet I-0 definitions, as
did the allocations of value-added data.
In addition, several modifications were made to the
GNP data, and some estimates were made of missing
data:
� A subsidy was added for private housing compara-
ble to that for public housing. Imputed net rent was
increased by the same amount, leaving the value
added of the housing sector unchanged.
� The value added of the food industry was divided
into four subsectors to match the end-use expendi-
tures on food.
� The intermediate sales of services were estimated.
The services involved are credit and insurance,
repair and personal care, recreation, and nonproduc-
tive transportation and communications.
� The structure of expenditures for goods and services
by the nonproductive service sectors was estimated.
In the second adjustment nonproductive service sec-
tors were moved out of the interindustry quadrant.
This produces additional rows in the value-added
quadrant showing the sales of services to other sectors
and additional columns in the final-demand quadrant
showing the purchases of goods and services by the
service sectors.
The gross output of each productive sector in purchas-
ers' and producers' prices can be estimated from
similar data in the 1966 and 1972 I-0 tables and
annually published production and price indexes. The
gross output of an I-0 sector can be estimated for any
year between 1966 and 1972 in current producers'
prices by multiplying the 1966 gross output from the
I-0 table times the constant-price production index
and the price index published for that sector. This was
done for each sector for 1972 and the results were
compared with the corresponding data from the 1972
I-0 table. The two 1972 gross-output estimates were
quite close in all cases. A correction factor was
computed which would equalize the two estimates.
Then the average annual rate of growth of the
correction factor was used in conjunction with the
1970 production and price indexes to estimate 1970
gross output in producers' prices.
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The 1970 gross output of each sector in piirchasers'
prices was then estimated using the gross output in
producers' prices, turnover tax and subsidy data from
the GNP accounts, and transportation and trade data
from the 1972 1-0 table. The gross output of each
sector in both prices is shown in the following
tabulation:
Sector
Gross Output in Gross Output in
Producers' Prices Purchasers' Prices
(billion rubles) (billion rubles)
Metallurgy
37.076
40.542
Fuels
22.442
34.478
Electric Power
11.511
12.011
Machinery
92.800
101.459
Chemicals
22.414
24.700
Wood, pulp, and paper
19.419
23.196
Construction materials
15.990
21.926
Light industry
62.988
78.843
Food industry
90.489
115.735
Animal products
45.961
38.396
Processed foods
12.527
19.539
Basic foods
16.235
18.749
Beverages
15.766
39.051
Other industry
12.621
13.626
Construction
67.522
67.600
Agriculture
103.800
109.295
Forestry
0.623
0.636
Transportation and
communications
25.700
25.700
Trade
22.100
21.700
Other branches
3.800
4.300
The gross outputs of the service sectors were derived
from the GNP data.
The result of all of the adjustments and estimates
described above was a 1970 1-0 table with the value-
added and final-demand quadrants, the gross outputs,
and a few elements of the interindustry quadrant
filled in. The remainder of the interindustry quadrant
was blank.
Converting the GNP Data to Producers' Prices
The 1972 Soviet I-0 table was compiled and pub-
lished in established or purchasers' prices. The parts
of the 1970 table not filled in as described in the
165
previous section are estimated by assuming that the
relationships among the various elements of the table
in 1970 are similar to the same relationships in 1972.
The Soviets published only part of the 1972 I-0 table.
Western experts reconstructed the unpublished en-
tries and converted the entire table to producers'
prices by eliminating turnover taxes and subsidies and
by separating the costs of transportation and trade
services from the purchase price and showing them as
a separate expense. Producers' prices are a more
accurate reflection of the structure of production costs
in each sector and provide a better basis for estimat-
ing the cost structure for 1970. Since the elimination
of turnover taxes and subsidies is also part of the
conversion to factor-cost prices, it is expedient to
convert the data in the partially completed 1970 1-0
table to producers' prices before completing the table.
This price change is described here.
The 1-0 data are converted from purchasers' prices to
producers' prices in four steps: (1) turnover taxes and
other fees are deleted, (2) transportation and commu-
nications expenses are reallocated, (3) trade and distri-
bution expenses are reallocated, and (4) the value
added and gross output in each sector are increased
by the value of any subsidies given to the sector.
Turnover taxes and other fees form part of the
purchasers' price of a good as an element of value
added and need to be subtracted froni the value added
and gross output of each sector. Total turnover taxes
and other fees are 54.606 billion rubles, the sum of
turnover taxes (53.346 billion rubles-table D-3, item
3,e), price markups on radio and television sets (0.510
billion rubles-table D-3, item 3,1) and surcharges on
spare parts for agricultural machinery (0.750 billion
rubles-table D-3, item 3,1). The distribution of turn-
over taxes by sector is shown in table D-16. The price
markups on radio and television sets and the sur-
charges on spare parts for agricultural machinery are
part of the value added of the machinery sector. The
same value of taxes and fees also had to be removed
from each sector's sales to preserve the equality
between total output and input. In order to subtract
the taxes and fees from the rows of the 1-0 table, it is
necessary to estimate the distribution of the taxes of
each sector as an element of the sales to each sector or
to a category of final demand. For this, it was
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assumed that the same distribution of taxes estimated
for the 1972 I-0 table is also valid for 1970. The taxes
included in final-demand values are then subtracted
directly. The taxes paid by each sector when it
purchases material inputs are subtracted from each
entry in that sector's column of the I-0 table,
summed, and placed in a new row in the value-added
quadrant. The new row is necessary to preserve the
equality between a sector's output and input.
The purchase price of any good includes the transpor-
tation expenses necessary to deliver the good from the
producer to the purchaser. Since this expense is not a
real cost of production and can be highly variable
depending on the transportation mode and the type
and location of the purchaser, a better estimate of the
structure of production costs is obtained by subtract-
ing this transportation expense. The cost of transpor-
tation still exists, but is now shown as a separate
purchase in the transportation row.
If a complete purchasers' prices table is available, the
reallocation of transportation expenses is simple. First
the value of each sector's purchases of transportation
and communications services is deleted and the value
of its gross output is reduced by the same amount.
This value represents the amount paid by the produc-
ing sector for the delivery of its output to purchasers.
Then the same value is removed from that sector's
row by assuming that the proportion of transportation
and communications expenses in each sector's sales is
equal. For example, if a sector's purchases from the
transportation sector in purchasers' prices is equal to
5 percent of its gross output, then it is assumed that 5
percent of that sector's sales to each other sector and
to final demand represents transportation expenses.
The values removed from all of a sector's material
purchases are summed and entered as a single pur-
chase of transportation and communications services.
This value represents the amount paid by the produc-
ing sector for the delivery of its material inputs.
In this case, a complete purchasers' prices table is not
available. Therefore, it was assumed that the propor-
tion of each sector's sales that represented transporta-
tion and communications services in 1970 was the
same as it was in 1972. The transportation purchases
by each sector were then summed and compared with
the gross output of the transportation and communi-
cations sector. The calculated amount, 27.1 billion
rubles, was 5 percent higher than the published gross
output, (25.7 billion�Narkhoz 1978, p. 41). All of the
1972 transportation rates were lowered by 5 percent
to remove the discrepancy, and the calculations were
repeated.
The trade and distribution expenses were reallocated
using the same procedure as for transportation. This
operation is slightly more complicated because there
are sharply different markups for wholesale trade,
retail trade, and agricultural procurement services.
Again the rates used for the 1972 I-0 table were
assumed to be valid for 1970, and the gross output of
the trade sector was calculated. Again, the resulting
total was 5 percent greater than the gross output of
the trade sector. The same proportional reduction of
the 1972 trade and distribution rates was used to
remove the discrepancy.
Subsidies were removed in an analogous manner to
turnover taxes and other fees. The subsidies row in the
value-added quadrant was deleted, and the gross
output of each sector was increased by the same
amount. The same amount was then allocated among
purchasing sectors and final demand, using the distri-
bution of the corresponding subsidies in the 1972 I-0
table. Finally, the estimated subsidies received by
each sector on its material purchases were summed
and entered as a new row in the value-added
quadrant.
Estimating a 1970 Input-Output Table
The computation described in the previous two sec-
tions produced a partial 1970 I-0 table in producers'
prices. The remaining parts of the table were estimat-
ed based on the assumption that all production rela-
tionships should be as similar as possible to what they
were in 1972 and yet be consistent with the data
already filled in.
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Mathematically, the unknown parts of the table are
estimated by minimizing the sum of squared differ-
ences between the corresponding entries of the 1972
and 1970 I-0 tables. If x(i,j) is the value of the sales of
sector i to sector j in 1970 and y(i,j) is the same sales
in 1972, then the following is minimized:
n n
S = Z(x(ii)�YON/Y(ii),
i=1 j=1
subject to the constraints that:
(1) Ex(i,j)=C(j), and
i=1
(2) Ix(i,j)=R(i), where
j=1
CO) is the column sum of sector j (gross output less
value added and other estimated purchases) and R(i) is
the row sum of sector i (gross output less final demand
and other estimated sales). The minimum value of S is
determined by the equations:
(3) x(i,j)=y(i,jX1-1-X(i)+�(j)), where
X(i) and �(j) are Lagrangian multipliers. Substituting
each equation (3) into equations (1) and (2) produces a
system of 2n-1 linear equations in 2n-1 unknowns (the
Lagrangian multipliers), where n is the number of
sectors in the I-0 table (19 in this case). The values of
the Lagrangian multipliers can then be substituted
back into each equation (3) to determine the actual
value of each cell in the 1970 1-0 table. For a detailed
description of this and other methods of estimating
1-0 tables see John Pitzer, An Analysis of Technical
Change in the Soviet Economy: An Application of
Soviet Input-Output Tables (Ph.D. dissertation,
American University, 1980).
167
Estimating GNP in Factor-Cost Prices
The preceding sections have described the estimation
of GNP in producers' prices and a complete 1970
Soviet I-0 table. In order to complete the conversion
to factor-cost prices, it is necessary to eliminate the
remaining elements of value added which do not
represent a payment to a factor of production, esti-
mate the capital stock of each sector, and replace
Soviet profits with a capital charge which provides an
equal rate of return in each sector. All of these
changes directly affect value added. The 1-0 table is
needed to compute the direct and indirect impact of
the value-added changes on end-use GNP.
In any 1-0 table, the sum of a sector's material
purchases and value added equal its gross output, or:
(4) X(j)= /x(i,j)-F w(j)-Fd(j)+Z(j), where
i=1
X(j) is the gross output of sector j, w(j) is the labor
income earned in sector j, d(j) is the depreciation in
sector j, and Z(j) is all other value added in sector j.
As in previous estimates of Soviet GNP in factor-cost
prices, it is assumed that w(j) and d(j) adequately
represent their respective variables. It is desired to
compute a uniform rate of return on each sector's
capital stock, r, and to reprice the output of all sectors
to accommodate this uniform return. Equation (4)
now becomes
(5) p(j)X(j)= /p(i)x(i,j)+ w(j) d(j) -f- rK(j),
i=1
where p(i) is the price change required in sector i, and
KO) is the capital stock of sector j.
We make two further refinements. First, the capital
stock of each sector is disaggregated to show how
much was produced by the machinery, construction,
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and agriculture (livestock) sectors, and each portion of
the capital stock is revalued according to the price
variable, p(i), of the sector producing the capital.
Second, the constraint is added that factor-cost GNP
must equal established-price GNP. These refinements
produce the system of equations:
(6) p(j)X(j) = Zp(i)x(i,j)+ w(j)+d(j)-f-rEp(i)K(i,j),
i=1 i=1
(7) w(j)+d(j)+r Ep(i)K(i,j)=GNP (established prices),
i=1
where K(i,j) is the amount of capital produced by
sector i and owned by sector j.
There are n equations of type (6) and one equation (7),
for a total of n +1. There are n unknown price
variables, p(i), and one unknown interest variable, r,
for a total of n +1. Equation (6) is nonlinear, however,
and the system must be solved by iteration.
The capital data were derived principally from the
estimates by Constance B. Krueger of capital stock by
major sector in 1955 prices (USSR: Gross Fixed
Capital, unpublished, 1976). Capital stock of the
various services were estimated primarily from data in
Rutgayzer, Resursy razvitiya neproizvodstvennoy
Very, and other monographs on the service sector.
Imputed depreciation was also added for capital stock
for which the Soviets do not compute amortization
deductions (primarily the capital used by budget
organizations).
In order to make our accounts more comparable to
those of OECD countries, a compromise between the
theoretical standard of an equal rate of return on
capital in all sectors and the OECD practice of not
imputing any return on government capital was
adopted. In the version used here, the capital stock of
the housing sector and of the government sectors
(state administration and the administrative organs of
social organizations, culture, health, education, forest-
ry, municipal services, general agricultural programs,
and civilian police) was given a rate of return one-half
that of the other sectors.
With equations (6) and (7) solved, and the entire 1-0
table repriced in factor-cost prices, the only step
remaining was to rearrange the data in accord with
our definitions of GNP sectors. In effect, the adjust-
ments described in the first section of this appendix
were made in reverse order. The result is a Western-
style 1970 I-0 table with GNP by end use and by
sector of origin in factor-cost prices as two of its
components.
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Part II. AN INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN THE USSR
By Ray Converse
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Contents
Page
Summary
Introduction
The Revised Methodology
Taxonomy of the Industrial Index
The Product Sample
Sectors, Branches, and Groups
Construction of the Standard Indexes
Alternative Approaches
Derivation of the Branch Indexes
The Machinery Index
The Index of Total Industrial Output
Soviet Industrial Growth, 1950-80
Revised SPIOER Indexes
Major Trends in Industrial Production
Industrial Materials
Machinery
Consumer Nondurables
175
179
179
179
180
183
184
184
187
188
190
190
190
192
197
197
198
Evaluation of the New Indexes 198
Consistency Tests 198
Consistency With the Official Indexes 198
Plausible Elimination of Inflated Growth 200
Consistency of Growth Trends 200
Consistency With Investment Series 203
Sample Representativeness 207
Sample Coverage 207
A Rough Measure of Sample Representativeness 208
Biases in the Basic Data 210
Changes in the Material Intensity of Production 210
Biases in the Quantity and Value Data 212
The Importance of Disguised Inflation 215
Appendixes
A.
The SPIOER Sample and Sector Indexes 219
B.
Computation of the Machinery Index 241
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Tables
1. Share of Branch Value Added in 1972 Accounted for by Different 184
Statistical Series
SPIOER Industrial Groupings 185
Industry: 1970 Value Added at Factor Cost by Branch 190
4. Soviet Industrial Production Indexes
191
5. Soviet Industrial Production: Annual Rates of Growth
193
6. Soviet Industrial Production: Average Annual Rates of Growth 195
7. Rankings of Industrial Branches by Growth Rates
8. Comparisons of Average Annual Growth in SPIOER and
Official Series
199
201
9. Difference Between Official and SPIOER Average Annual Growth 202
Rates for Industry and Branches of Industry
Difference Between Official and SPIOER Growth Rates 203
for Industry
11.
1
SPIOER and Official Industrial Indexes: Comparisons of Secular 205
Growth Patterns
SPIOER and Official Industrial Indexes: Directional Changes in 206
Growth
13. Estimated Sample Coverage of SPIOER Indexes in 1972
14. SPIOER and I-0 GVO: Comparisons of Average Annual
Growth Rates
209
210
15. Gross Output and Value Added in Input-Output Tables at Constant 211
Prices
16. Comparison of Growth of Output in Two Sectors Using Fixed and 213
Variable price Weights
17. Comparison of Growth of Quantity and Value Series Within 216
Branches of Industry
18. Growth of Machinery Samples Estimated From Official GVO Data 217
19. Growth of Soviet Industry Under Different Assumptions of Bias 218
in the SPIOER Producer Durables Sample
A-1. The SPIOER Sample: Products, Units, and Key Sources 219
A-2. Gross Sector Output Indexes 230
B-1. Allocation of Value Added in the Machinery Branch to Producer 242
Durables and Consumer Durables
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Figures
1.
Growth of Industrial Production, 1950-80
176
2.
A Capsule View of How the Index Is Constructed
180
3.
Branch Shares of 1972 Industrial Gross Output and Value Added
187
4.
Structure of the Machinery Branch
189
5.
Growth of Soviet Industrial Production
196
6.
SPIOER and Official Series: Comparison of Annual Growth Rates
for Industry
204
Comparison of Production of Producer Durables and Adjusted
207
Investment
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An Index of Industrial
Production in the USSR
Summary
Measures of industrial production are needed to gauge the pace of Soviet
economic development and to calculate more general measures of economic
activity such as Gross National Product. Because the official index is
believed to have an upward bias, synthetic indexes of industrial production
(SPIOER) have been constructed by the CIA to avoid the pitfalls of the of-
ficial indexes.
The indexes provide an empirical picture of Soviet industrial development
since 1950 (figure 1). Industry recorded impressive growth in the fifties as
the Soviet economy rebuilt from World War II by rapidly boosting output
in the machinery and construction materials branches. Beginning in 1960
the growth rate of industrial production declined precipitously, stabilizing
at a slower rate before a new period of declining growth rates began in the
mid-1970s.
Average Growth of Industrial Production Average Annual Percent
SPIOER Official
1951-59
1960-75
1976-80
9.4
6.3
3.4
12.0
8.2
4.4
SPIOER indexes are based on a sample of three types of Soviet reporting:
physical output series, constant value series, and official indexes of gross
output.' Physical output series, when available, are preferred because they
avoid the distortions of disguised inflation. The products included in the
index sample are classified by input-output sector and aggregated using
1 July 1967 price weights.
' Gross output is the value of production of an economic unit, such as an enterprise,
ministry, branch, or all industry. In general, gross output represents shipments from the
enterprise adjusted by inventory changes.
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Figure 1
Growth of Industrial Production,1950-80
Percent
12
10
8
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�������������� � � � � � ����������������������������
�������������������������� � � � � � � � � � � � �
Postwar boom
Stable, slowly declining
11:.1 Slowdown
To combine sector indexes into indexes for the branches of industry, we use
a 1972 input-output table for the USSR to derive value-added weights
within the branch.2 The branch indexes are further aggregated into indexes
for industrial materials, machinery, consumer nondurables, and total
industry. The amounts of value added in each branch in 1970 (at factor
cost) serve as the weights.'
Machinery production is treated differently because of the need for indexes
for machinery components. Samples are created for nearly every machin-
ery sector in the input-output table, and estimates of the total value added
for each sector are allocated between producer and consumer durables
An input-output table is a data matrix that records for a given year the technological rela-
tionships between the various sectors of an economy. Along the columns, it gives the
structure of inputs of materials, labor, and capital necessary to produce a given volume of
output. Along the rows, it shows how the output of a given sector is distributed among the
various industries and final consumption.
Value added is gross output less intermediate inputs consumed. More specifically, value
added includes profits, wages, depreciation, and other payments to the factors of production
plus indirect business taxes and subsidies (as a negative income).
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production. The two sets of value-added weights for each machinery sector
are applied to the various sector output indexes to compute separate output
series for the two types of durables. These series are then combined with
estimated military durable production to arrive at an index for total
machinery output.
Several tests have been performed on the synthetic indexes for reasonable-
ness in terms of consistency with collateral information, the representative-
ness of the sample, and biases in the basic data. Although, as expected, the
synthetic indicator of industrial progress shows slower growth than the
Soviet official index, the configurations of trends are similar in both
indexes. The consistency is best for the most recent period, where gross dis-
tortions in official data seem less than in the past. Trends in the most im-
portant segment of industrial output�producer durables�can be com-
pared to the key end-use component of investment in machinery and
equipment. When this comparison is made, the two series match closely.
The data are inadequate to test directly for the representativeness of the
sample�a crucial factor in establishing the legitimacy of any index. The
high share of the total production covered by the sample in 1972�the year
of the most recent input-output table, which provides information on the
total volume of production�suggests that it is representative. The samples
for six of the 10 branches of industry represent more than 60 percent of to-
tal branch output in 1972. Coverage is poorest in nonferrous metals and
chemicals and petrochemicals.
In another test of the SPIOER's accuracy, the industrial growth implied by
the 1959, 1966, and 1972 input-output tables was compared with the
growth registered by SPIOER indexes over the same periods. The SPIOER
samples generally grow more slowly. This could suggest some downward
bias in the synthetic indexes, but the discrepancy could also result from us-
ing the spurious official price indexes to deflate the input-output tables to
constant prices to arrive at "comparable" growth rates with the synthetic
indexes.
SPIOER's reliance on gross output rather than value-added indexes could
be an important source of bias but does not seem to be. We in effect are as-
suming at the sector level that the ratio of value added to gross output has
remained constant. Analysis of the gross output and value-added compo-
nents of the input-output tables for 1959, 1966, and 1972 suggests that the
error resulting from this assumption is not serious.
The performance of SPIOER is least satisfactory in controlling the biases
in the basic data. Series that measure output in quantity terms almost
certainly understate the true growth rate because they fail to account for
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improvements in quality and changes in product mix. While this conceptu-
al problem applies to nearly all the quantity series, it undoubtedly is most
serious in the machinery branch. Similarly, disguised inflation that enters
the value series, usually under the guise of new-product pricing, leads to an
overstatement of growth. This occurs when enterprise managers make
minor modifications to an existing product to justify a price higher than
would be warranted by the marginal improvement. This problem is most
acute in the machinery branch, especially in producer durables where the
value series have a large weight and grow much faster than the physical
output series. On one hand, evidence suggests that the quantity series may
bias the growth rate for selected machinery products downward by as
much as 1 percentage point per year; the bias in quantity series for other
branches probably is smaller. On the other hand, indications exist that
disguised inflation in the value series in our machinery sample may display
growth trends that are biased upward by as much as 3 percentage points
per year. (The value series are not a significant problem in other branches
because of their infrequent use and small weight.)
As for the net effect of these biases, if all the difference in growth rates be-
tween the value and physical series in the producer durables sector, where
the problems of bias are the worst, were actually attributable to inflation,
the SPIOER index would overstate machinery growth by a maximum of
1.2 percentage points per year and overall industrial growth by 0.3
percentage point. But the machinery inflation bias is probably much less
because the quantity series, by understating growth, partially offset the
upward biases of the value series.
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An Index of Industrial
Production in the USSR
Introduction
Any attempt to assess Soviet economic development
and to measure aggregate economic activity requires a
reliable measure of industrial production. The official
measures prepared by Soviet statistical agencies are
unreliable by Western standards, so independent esti-
mates are necessary.4 The CIA's Office of Economic
Research Indexes of Soviet Industrial Production
(SPIOER) circumvent weaknesses inherent in official
statistics. These indexes, first published in 1963, have
been revised over the years to improve the methodolo-
gy and adjust to data availability.'
The current revisions, like their predecessors, adopt as
a model the Federal Reserve Board's industrial pro-
duction index for the United States. The revised
methodology enhances SPIOER's compatibility with
the structure of Soviet input-output tables and makes
the SPIOER branch indexes more comparable in
scope with official time series. Frequent changes in
reporting procedures�a persistent problem with Sovi-
et data�make earlier versions of the indexes less
representative with time and force an inappropriate
reliance on obsolete data. Therefore, this revision of
SPIOER tries to conform to current Soviet reporting
practices.
' The problems of the official Soviet measures are discussed in CIA,
Comparing Planned and Actual Growth of Industrial Output in
Centrally Planned Economies, ER 80-10461 (August 1980).
Descriptions of the changing methodology behind these indexes
have been published over the years. For example, the writings of the
late Rush V. Greenslade are especially prolific on this topic. In
particular, see "Industrial Production Statistics in the USSR," in
Vladimir G. Treml and John P. Hardt, eds., Soviet Economic
Statistics, (Durham: Duke University Press, 1972), pp. 155-194;
with Wade Robertson, "Industrial Production in the USSR,"
Soviet Economic Prospects for the Seventies, US Congress, Joint
Economic Committee (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office, June 27, 1973), pp. 270-282; and "The Real Gross National
Product of the USSR, 1950-75," Soviet Economy in a New
Perspective, US Congress, Joint Economic Committee (Washing-
ton, D.C.: Government Printing Office, October 14, 1976), pp. 269-
300. See also F. Douglas Whitehouse and Ray Converse, "Soviet
Industry: Recent Performance and Future Prospects," Soviet Econ-
omy in a Time of Change, vol. 1, US Congress, Joint Economic
Committee (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, Octo-
ber 10, 1979), pp. 402-422.
This paper first describes the updated SPIOER proce-
dures. The revised methodology is described in terms
of the taxonomy of the individual indexes, the stand-
ard approach, the special case of machinery, and the
computation of the total industry index. The next
section presents the indexes and discusses the pattern
of industrial growth from 1950 to 1980. In the last
section both the indexes and the samples are subjected
to several tests to determine their reasonableness.
The Revised Methodology
Taxonomy of the Industrial Index
The revised industrial production index uses a five-
tier stratification of industry:
� Individual products, for example, iron ore.
� Input-output sectors, for example, ferrous ores.
� Branches of industry, for example, ferrous metals.
� Major industry groups, for example, industrial
materials.
� Total industry.
The process of going from product samples to an
index of total industrial production is summarized in
figure 2. Product data are aggregated into sector
indexes using 1 July 1967 prices as weights. That is,
output of a given product in physical units is multi-
plied by its July 1967 price, and the value is summed
together with like values for other products of the
sector to obtain a value from which a sector index can
be calculated. Branch indexes are calculated from
sector indexes using value added derived from the
1972 input-output table in producer prices to elimi-
nate the double-counting inherent in adding the value
of output of earlier stages of production to values at
later stages�for example, adding the value of iron
ore to the value of steel. The aggregations from
branches to industry groups and finally to total
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Figure 2
A Capsule View of How the Index Is Constructed
Products
Products aggregated
with I July 1967 prices
Sectors
Sectors aggregated
with value-added
weights derived from
1972 input-output table
For example:
Iron ore
Manganese ore
(Each item is a
production series from
1950 to the present)
IFerrous ores
Ferrous metals
Coke products
Refractory materials
'Branches
Branches aggregated
with 1970 value-added
weights
IFerrous metals
Nonferrous metals
Fuel
Electricity
Chemicals
Wood, pulp, paper
Construction materials
opIndustry group
Groups aggregated
with 1970 value-added
weights
Total industry
Ilndustrial materials I
Machinery wTotal industry
Consumer nondurables
industry are accomplished with independently derived
1970 value-added weights based on factor cost rather
than established prices.6
The advantages of classifying machinery production
by end-use designation require some departures from
this basic procedure. Individual machinery products
are divided into producer durables and consumer
durables. In addition, estimates of output for the
6 Established prices are the actual prices existing in the Soviet
Union for transactions. We believe that these prices are seriously
distorted because of indirect taxes and subsidies, and because
supply and demand forces do not play a role in price formation.
Therefore, we adjust the established prices to a factor cost basis so
that the prices will better represent the cost of the resources used in
production. This adjustment is done by eliminating subsidies,
indirect taxes, and profits and imputing a capital charge based on
each sector's stock of fixed and working capital. For a full
discussion of this procedure, see JEC, GNP, 1950-80.
defense sector must be included. This then leads to
machinery subsectors and subbranches based on the
two classifications of durables produced. At the major
industry group level, no distinction is made and all
products are combined under a single machinery
group.
The Product Sample. The major building blocks of
this index are the 312 products that form the sample
of industrially produced goods. These products are
measured in one of three ways: physical quantities,
values, or indexes.
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The most common description is a statistical produc-
tion series expressed in physical terms: tons, square
meters, units of production, or some other convention-
al measure. Examples of this type of data are tons of
coal, square meters of tile, or number of subway cars.
The product series are then multiplied by actual or
estimated 1967 enterprise wholesale prices to derive
constant price series. In some cases the raw product
data are adjusted by indexes of quality change in the
average or standard product over time. For example,
not only has Portland cement production increased
over time, but the output mix has steadily shifted in
favor of higher "marks" (greater strength) of cement.
Raw figures for Portland cement production are
therefore weighted by both the 1967 wholesale price
and an index of average mark to account for the
improved quality of the product over time.
Official ruble value series reported by the Central
Statistical Administration of the USSR (CSA) are
also used as sample elements. A few examples are the
value of production of agricultural machinery, metal-
cutting machine tools, and forge presses. Until recent-
ly these series were reported in official 1967 wholesale
prices, although earlier years were reported in 1955
wholesale prices. In 1976 the Soviets began to publish
these value series in prices of 1 January 1975. The
official statistics have overlap in the different prices
for a given year to permit an approximate linkage
between the earlier and later periods, so that a
common price basis can be maintained. Since the
physical output samples are weighted by 1 July 1967
prices, the new value indexes were linked backward to
estimate them in 1967 prices to conform with the
remainder of the sample.
These rubles series, however, must be used with
caution because many of them contain a large degree
of concealed inflation. The products in this category
are usually machinery items subject to the problems
of new-product pricing. Some share of the reported
growth arises from the use of first temporary prices
and then permanent prices that are substantially
higher than increased performance would justify.' In
addition, since these series include both intermediate
and final goods, they contain a substantial amount of
double-counting. To the extent that the magnitude of
double-counting has fluctuated over time, these series
could be biased up or down.
The third kind of production measure consists of gross
value of output (GVO) indexes prepared by the
Soviets for various product groups such as mineral
chemicals, repair of machinery, and metal structurals.
They are supposed to represent the aggregation of all
output in a given branch�sometimes including work
in process and major repairs. These indexes are
subject to even greater limitations than the CSA
value series.' Therefore, they are used only to fill out
the sample in some crucial areas where better indica-
tors are lacking.
Although each line item in the SPIOER sample
ostensibly consists of a production entry for every year
since 1950, the quality of coverage is not uniform.
Some gaps in coverage exist for the earlier years,
especially during the 1950s. These gaps fit three
categories: missing intervening observations at irregu-
lar intervals, series that begin several years after 1950
despite production during earlier years, and items not
produced in earlier years. The extent of the resulting
problems and procedures to circumvent them vary by
type of gap.
' See the section "Biases in the Basic Data" for a fuller treatment of
the new-product pricing phenomenon. It has been widely discussed
in the literature. In particular, see Abraham S. Becker, Ruble Price
Levels and Dollar-Ruble Ratios of Soviet Machinery in the 1960s,
Report R-1063-DDRE (Santa Monica, California, The Rand Cor-
poration, 1973); Joseph S. Berliner, The Innovation Decision in
Soviet Industry (Cambridge, The MIT Press, 1976); Padma Desai,
"On Reconstructing Price, Output and Value-Added Indexes in
Postwar Soviet Industry and Its Branches," Oxford Bulletin of
Economics and Statistics (February 1978): pp. 55-77; Central
Intelligence Agency, An Analysis of the Behavior of Soviet Ma-
chinery Prices, 1960-73, ER 79-10631 (December 1979); and James
E. Steiner, Inflation in Soviet Industry and Machine Building and
Metalworking (MBMW), 1960-1975, SRM 78-1042 (Working pa-
per, July 1978).
' As an index, the output data are express only as a proportion of
another year. The publication of indexes with tfcrent base years
and in extremely rounded form limits accuracy. In addition, an
index cannot be scaled to compare its relative importance with
activity elsewhere in the economy.
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Missing intervening years are the most common type
of gaps in the SPIOER data. A typical series is fairly
complete except for a few years when the relevant
production data fail to appear in either an edition of
the Narodnoye khozyaystvo or in one of the two
editions of the statistical compendium Promyshlen-
non'. In general several benchmark observations are
available for these series�most often for 1950, 1953,
1955, 1958, and 1960�although the precise configu-
ration of benchmarks varies from series to series. This
problem affects around 50 of the statistical series or
about 15 percent of the sample. Almost all of these
cases are concentrated in three branches of industry:
ferrous metals, processed food, and machinery. In all
instances of this kind, years between benchmarks are
interpolated by assuming that the average annual rate
of growth between benchmarks is constant. Since we
have little interest in year-to-year comparisons during
the 1950s, this procedure should not introduce a
significant distortion.
The second type of gap occurs when Soviet statistical
authorities fail to extend a newly published series
back in time. This is potentially a more serious
problem because extrapolation of a data series to
complete it involves more uncertainty than interpola-
tion. However, this problem is limited to less than 20
series or about 5 percent of the sample. About three-
fourths of these occur in the machinery branch.
Several different approaches are used to adjust the
series depending on the availability of other informa-
tion. For example, production data on three different
types of boilers are published in different units for
earlier years only. A year in common is used to splice
the series together, and then extend the desired series
backward. The index series for printing machinery
and equipment does not extend back to 1950, so
quantity production series available in the earlier
years for two types of printing equipment are used to
extend the full series. For some ruble series and index
series in the sample, statistical correlations between
GVO branch indexes and product series are used to
extend the product series back in time. Metalwares,
metal structurals, light industry and processed food
industry machinery and equipment, and mineral
chemicals are examples where this procedure is used.
In a few instances�furniture, logging and paper
machinery, machinery repair, and carpeting�the
series are merely extrapolated backward assuming a
constant average annual rate of growth equal to the
rate for the first five years for which data were
published.
The assimilation of new products into SPIOER poses
a different statistical problem whose treatment de-
pends on the type of data series used for the new
product. In most cases the line items in the sample are
so aggregated that a new product merely falls within
the rubric of an existing broader classification. Phys-
ical product series often cannot be adequately disag-
gregated to account for the effect of new products and
a changing product mix. This can be a serious handi-
cap because the entire output of a given commodity or
commodity class�bulldozers in construction machin-
ery, for example�has to be given a single average or
representative unit price for the entire period. Other
examples of quantity series in SPIOER where new
products are included in output statistics, but where
the average price may not fully reflect them are
synthetic plastics and resins, synthetic knits and fi-
bers, and scrapers.
In those instances where the SPIOER disaggregation
accounts specifically for new products�such as trac-
tors, automobiles, and trucks�another procedure is
used. If the product is considered essentially new, it is
added into the sample at its 1967 price or its first
permanent price for models introduced after 1967. If
the product is considered a modification of an earlier
model, production is added to the output of the similar
model at the earlier model's price.
The problem of accounting for new products does not
apply to the value and index series. Because these
series presumably cover all products in a given cate-
gory, they include new products and reflect changes
over time in the product mix. However, value series
also include the value of output of intermediate
products as well as the disguised inflation mentioned
earlier. All of these problems associated with the
treatment of new products are discussed in detail later
in the paper.
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In addition to gaps in coverage for the earlier years,
there are numerous problems with the more recent
data, which are both difficult to quantify and poten-
tially more serious. During the past decade, Soviet
statistical authorities have continuously reduced the
amount of information reported from one year to the
next. The "Industry" section in the latest Narkhoz,
for example, contains only 80 pages in contrast to the
142 pages in the 1970 edition. At least 10 percent of
the SPIOER series published directly in the Narkhoz
in 1970 no longer appear there. Thus, greater reliance
must be placed on estimates based on other sources.
The information on which to base these estimates also
has become more fragmentary, so that the estimates
are more subject to error. Since the Soviets are more
likely to delete publication of a series when its growth
trend becomes unfavorable, SPIOER estimates may
suffer from an upward bias. Fortunately, the series
deleted from standard publication so far have not had
a major impact on the SPIOER sample, but the trend
is potentially troublesome.
In terms of the absolute number of sample items, the
physical output series dominate�they account for
292 (94 percent) of the 312 statistical series in the
index. (See appendix A-1 for a listing of the sample.)
The CSA value series account for another 4 percent
and the GVO indexes comprise the remaining 2
percent of the sample. Comparisons of the absolute
number of statistical series are deceptive, however,
because some series have significantly greater impact
on the aggregate indexes than other series. The
approximate share of each type of statistical series in
the industry portion of the 1972 Soviet input-output
table weighted by value added is:
Type of Series Percent
Including
Unrepresented
Products
Excluding
Unrepresented
Products
Quantity
CSA rubles
CSA gross value of output
index
73.3
10.7
8.0
79.7
11.6
8.7
Unrepresented 8.0
a Unrepresented products are those items lacking any SPIOER
counterpart. Some examples of this are cable products, tools and
dies, and construction materials machinery and equipment.
The relative importance of value and index series
based on the share of industrial output they represent
is three times more than their importance based
strictly upon a count of the number of series used.
Nonetheless, quantity series still have much the larg-
est weight in the calculation of SPIOER indexes.
Sectors, Branches, and Groups. The next step-up in
the taxonomy of the industrial production index is the
input-output sector. This level is based on the 88-
sector version of the 1972 input-output table in pro-
ducer prices, of which only the first 81 sectors consti-
tute Soviet industry.' The remaining sectors consist of
nonindustrial activity such as agriculture, transporta-
tion, communications, and retail trade. Adapting
SPIOER indexes to the input-output framework per-
mits us to (1) compare our indexes with the 1959,
1966, and 1972 input-output tables, (2) determine
changes in the production mix over time, (3) judge the
representativeness of our sample, and (4) most impor-
tantly, employ value-added weights at a fairly disag-
gregated level. SPIOER product series currently rep-
resent all but 12 of the 84 industrial sectors. Of the 72
sectors covered, 58 sector indexes are determined at
least partially by quantity samples, 11 are partly
value series, and five are based solely on the CSA
gross value of output indexes.
The level immediately above the input-output sector is
the Soviet branch (otrasl j, which is formed by com-
bining selected input-output sectors. Branch-level in-
dexes have three advantages: (1) the 10 major
branches are much more manageable for analysis
than the numerous input-output sectors; (2) the
branch structure matches published Soviet data and,
therefore, facilitates comparisons and tests of the
SPIOER indexes; and (3) value added at factor cost
can be calculated from Soviet data only at the branch
level or above in 1970�the base year for CIA's GNP
accounts.'
The metal-producing sectors are an exception. The 1972 recon-
structed input-output table combines ferrous metals, ferrous ores,
nonferrous metals, and nonferrous ores into one sector. This is
inadequate disaggregation for our purposes. Thus, we use relation-
ships among these four sectors from the 1966 table in 1970
producer prices to estimate value added in the four sectors in 1972.
For our purposes, therefore, the input-output table has 84 industrial
sectors.
See JEC, GNP, 1950-80.
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Table 1
Percent
Share of Branch Value Added in 1972 Accounted for
by Different Statistical Series
Branch
Type of Series
Quantity
CSA Value
CSA GVO
Unrepresented a
All industry
73.3
10.7
8.0
8.0
Ferrous metals
94.8
5.2
Nonferrous metals
62.7
37.3
Fuel
100.00
Electric power
100.00
Machinery
53.3
18.5
23.9
4.3
Chemicals
77.4
4.1
18.7
Wood, pulp, and paper products
78.4
16.7
4.9
Construction materials
100.00
Light industry
63.9
36.1
Processed food
100.00
a This category consists of industrial activity lacking any representa-
tion in SPIOER, such as nonferrous ores, cable products, and tools
and dies.
As indicated above, the impact of the less desirable
CSA value and index series on all industrial indexes is
confined to less than one-fifth of the weight. Ideally,
the relative importance of each type of series would be
about the same in the various branches of industry as
in the total, so that no branch index would suffer more
from the biased sector indexes than any other. Unfor-
tunately, this is not the case. Only about one-half of
the machinery index is accounted for by quantity
series, nearly one-fifth by value series, and approxi-
mately one-fourth by the least desirable GVO series.
Other than machinery, the impact of the value and
GVO series on branch estimates is quite limited (table
1). Only in light industry do value series represent
more than one-third of total value."
The highest level of subaggregation is the major
industry group, which resembles the major compo-
nents of the Federal Reserve Board's index of US
""Light industry" as used in this paper differs from the standard
light- industry versus heavy-industry dichotomy used in the West.
An appropriate synonym for light industry in the present context is
soft goods consisting of articles such as textiles, clothing, and
footwear.
industrial production (table 2). SPIOER has three
major groups: industrial materials, total machinery,
and consumer nondurables.
Construction of the Standard Indexes
Alternative Approaches. Measurement of output be-
comes a problem when the output of several diverse
products must be combined into one series. One
approach, and the basic method employed in the
USSR, sums the values of the individual products to
yield the gross value of output (GVO). This index
usually appears in one of two variants. The first, the
gross turnover of output (valovoy oborot), includes
intraplant consumption of a plant's own products
calculated by summing the value of output of individ-
ual workshops within the plant. Most Soviet produc-
tion statistics that are published in physical quantities
include intraplant consumption. A second variant, the
gross product (valovaya produktsiya), removes mate-
rials and intermediate products fabricated by work-
shops that are consumed within the plant. In general,
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Table 2
SPIOER Industrial Groupings
Total industry
Industrial materials Ferrous metals
Nonferrous metals
Fuel
Electric power
Chemicals and petrochemicals
Wood, pulp, and paper products
Construction materials
Machinery Civilian machinery
Producer durables
Consumer durables
Military machinery
Consumer nondurables Light industry
Processed food
production series reported in value terms are
computed on this basis. 22
The gross-output method of aggregation is mislead-
ing, however, because the values include some inter-
mediate product already counted elsewhere. For ex-
ample, this procedure counts the value of coking coal
used in manufacturing steel both in the output of the
coal industry and in that of the steel industry. If the
steel is used elsewhere in industry, the coking coal will
be counted again.
If the amount of double-counting of production is
constant and the industrial structure is stable, then
the bias in the computed growth rate is minimal since
the growth rate of value added and gross output of
each enterprise will be nearly identical. A small bias
12 For a discussion of the two types of gross output measures, see
M. R. Eydel'man, Mezhnotraslevoy balans obshchestvennogo pro-
dukta, (Moscow: Statistika, 1966) pp. 200-203, A. I. Yezhov,
Statistika promyshlennosti, (Moscow: Statistika, 1977), pp. 57-61,
and Vladimir G. Treml, Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinsky, and
Kurt W. Kruger, The Structure of the Soviet Economy: Analysis
and Reconstruction of the 1966 Input-Output Table, (New York:
Praeger Publishers, 1972), pp. 45-46.
arises because the output of the separate enterprises
will be combined by gross-output weights rather than
value-added weights.'
The principal bias from double-counting arises, how-
ever, from increasing vertical specialization in the
production of a given commodity. This causes the
gross output of an enterprise to rise faster than value
added. The bias caused by this type of double-
counting is particularly severe over time, where the
economic structure is rapidly changing. By any stand-
ard, Soviet industry has grown rapidly over the last
three decades and the degree of specialization has
increased somewhat.
Soviet industry is notorious for its autarky. Because of
the vagaries of its distribution system, enterprise and
ministry managers want to control as much as possi-
ble the production and distribution of the material
inputs needed by their enterprises. Enterprises and
ministries frequently produce goods that clearly are
not their specialty. Soviet planners and academics
have long realized that this excessive vertical integra-
tion hampers efficiency, and there have been numer-
ous campaigns over the years to encourage specializa-
tion. To the extent these campaigns have been
efficacious, this would increase double-counting and
the upward bias of gross output as a measure of the
growth of industrial production.
The construction materials industry is a prime exam-
ple of how a changing industrial structure causes
double-counting to increase. At one time, most ce-
ment was shipped directly to the construction indus-
try. Soviet leaders decided, however, to "industrialize
construction" by fabricating as many construction
elements�such as walls, bathroom units, and railroad
tracks�as possible in a plant instead of on site by the
construction industry. This means that much of the
cement is now converted into precast concrete pro-
ducts by other plants within the construction materi-
als industry, and a larger share of cement output is
now double-counted than formerly.
' For a discussion of the biases of gross-output measures and
double-counting, see Rush V. Greenslade, "Industrial Production
Statistics in the USSR," pp. 155-194.
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Finally, industries with a high ratio of material inputs
to gross output are more susceptible to biases imposed
by double-counting. This means we would expect a
greater danger of significant bias in the measurement
of machinery, chemicals, and construction materials
output and a smaller bias in the remaining branches.
The preferred measure for most purposes is the sum of
value added by industrial sector, where value added
equals gross value of output of a sector less purchases
of goods and services from other sectors of the
economy. Value added measures the net contribution
of a particular industry to national product. It is the
sum of profits, wages, depreciation, other payments to
the factors of production, and indirect business taxes
less subsidies. To construct a value-added index,
however, requires accurate data on production (quan-
tities and prices) and purchases of inputs from other
sectors (quantities and prices).
Two approaches have been used to derive indexes of
value added in constant prices. One approach�re-
ferred to in the economic literature as double-defla-
tion�measures both outputs and intermediate inputs
in constant prices, where value added is the difference
between the two. This can be accomplished in one of
two ways; either constant price measures for output
and intermediate inputs can be used or current price
measures for each individual component can be de-
flated with price indexes. The information require-
ments of this approach are extremely rigorous because
both outputs and purchases from other sectors of the
economy must be tracked over time. While reported
Soviet production data are deficient in quantity and
quality, statistics on material inputs are even scarcer.
For this reason, double-deflation is not practical in
compiling SPIOER.
An alternative approach (used in the Federal Reserve
Board's index of US industrial production) is a hybrid
procedure that combines gross output indexes with
value-added weights for a base year. This approach,
known as a single indicator method, is as good as
double-deflation only if gross output and purchases
from other sectors move over time at the same rate.
Since this is a rough approximation at best, the hybrid
FRB-type indexes only approximate a true value-
added series. They do remove most of the double-
counting inherent in pure GVO measures of industrial
production (completely in the base year, less than
completely in other years).
While double-deflation is closer than the single indi-
cator approach in theory to the notion of value added,
both the output and input indexes used by double-
deflation must be accurate. T. P. Hill has argued
convincingly that under fairly weak assumptions er-
rors in the output and input indexes will compound
measured bias rather than offset each other and that
using a single indicator will produce a more accurate
result. Moreover, Hill's study of growth in several
OECD countries suggests that on average the growth
rate is not much different whether double-deflation or
a single indicator is used. Although the method used
undoubtedly affects the measured growth of some
components of industrial activity, these differences
tend to cancel out."
Depending on whether gross output or value added is
used, one may receive an entirely different impression
of both industrial structure and growth. In figure 3
the share of industrial production by branch of indus-
try in 1972 is displayed both for gross output and
value-added weights. The gross-output scheme tends
to give a higher weight to sectors that either produce
mainly for final consumption or are highly material
intensive and a lesser weight to sectors that either
produce mainly for further industrial processing or
are highly labor and capital intensive. Thus, to the
extent that industries with the most double-counting
are growing relatively slowly, the gross- output index
is biased downward and vice versa. In the Soviet case,
both light industry and processed foods have lagged
behind other branches whereas machinery has grown
the fastest. With gross-output weights, light industry
and processed food gain in importance and machinery
loses. Other things being equal, therefore, Soviet gross
output of industry tends to increase more slowly than
value added.
' For an extensive discussion of the properties and relative merits of
the two methods, see T. P. Hill, The Measurement of Real Product:
A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Growth Rates for
Different Industries and Countries, (Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development, 1971), pp. 11-37, 111-112, 118-
119.
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Figure 3
Branch Share of 1972 Industrial Gross Output and Value Added
Percent
Ferrous metals
Nonferrous metals
Fuels
Electric power
Machinery
Chemicals and petro-
chemicals
Wood, pulp, and
paper products
Construction materials
Light industry
Processed food
Industry, nec
-� lb � lc � 1
� � � �
� � � �
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
1:1 Gross output
El Value added
Derivation of the Branch Indexes. For reasons enu-
merated above, the SPIOER indexes use the single
indicator technique to measure industrial production.
Computing the branch indexes involves: creating the
sector indexes, deriving the sector value added, and
aggregating the sectors into branches. The indicator
used is based on gross output. The method for esti-
mating the indexes described below applies to every
branch except for machinery, where the methodology
is slightly more complicated.
To construct the 72 sector indexes, the sample of
industrial products is classified by input-output sec-
tors to develop a series of subsamples. Each individual
line item is multiplied by its 1 July 1967 enterprise
wholesale price to convert all sample items into value
terms. Then for each sector in every year all of the
line items in a subsample are summed to yield a value
series for sample output in that sector. Finally, these
sector series are indexed to the base year of 1970.
Next value added in each sector is derived for 1972
from the reconstructed input-output table in producer
prices.' Total purchases by each sector are subtracted
from its gross outlays (or gross output.) 16 For other
" A somewhat more aggregated form of this input-output table
appears in the article by Dimitri M. Gallik, Gene D. Guill, Barry L.
Kostinsky, and Vladimir G. Treml, "The 1972 Input-Output Table
and the Changing Structure of the Soviet Economy," Soviet
Economy in a Time of Change, vol. I, pp. 423-471.
This particular version of the 1972 table allocates the taxes and
subsidies on the purchases of every sector to the interindustry
quadrant. This avoids the problem of a negative value added that
would arise in many of the sectors in the processed food branch.
Since food prices are held down artificially by the government,
many of these sectors must receive substantial subsidies.
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years value added in each sector is computed by
finding the ratio of the value for the sector index in
each year to its value in 1972 and then multiplying
this ratio by value added in 1972 as derived from the
input-output table.
Finally, to obtain the branch indexes, every sector is
first allocated to one of the 10 industrial branches.
Then for each year the estimated value added for all
of the sectors belonging to that branch are totaled.
After totals for each branch are converted to indexes
with base 1970=100, these branch indexes are equiv-
alent to an aggregation of production indexes using
value-added weights.
This procedure entails at least four possible sources of
error:
� The samples for each sector may be unrepresenta-
tive of actual gross output over time.
� Value added may not move in the same way as gross
output because the material intensiveness of produc-
tion may have changed.
� Value-added estimates for the sectors may be wrong
because in the reconstruction of the 1972 input-
output table they were derived as a residual, and
thus are subject to all of the uncertainties that
plague any residual.
� The price bases of the input-output table (1972
prices) and the product sample (1967 prices) are
both different from the 1970 prices that should be
used.
These possible sources of error are discussed in detail
below in the section, "Evaluation of the New
Indexes."
The Machinery Index
The machinery index has undergone substantial revi-
sion since the methodology was last described in 1976.
Revisions have focused on five areas:
� More machinery sectors are represented in the
producer durables indexes.
� Passenger automobiles for private purchases and
other consumer-oriented automotive products have
been shifted from the producer durables to the
consumer durables component of the machinery
index.
� Some sectors producing both consumer durables
and producer durables have separate indexes to
represent each component.
� The Tovary series adjusted to deduct furniture
production is no longer used as the sole measure of
consumer durables.''
� Finally, new weights for producer and consumer
durables have been derived with the help of the
1972 input-output table.
The machinery branch is handled differently because
we want to disaggregate branch output according to
how the machinery is used (figure 4). Since the use of
value-added weights implies a production orientation
and the different components of the machinery index
are based on end use, the disaggregation is not easy.
The first useful end-use distinction within machinery
is between civilian machinery and military machinery.
Here, military machinery excludes common-use dura-
bles�products with both civilian and military appli-
cations, such as trucks or bulldozers�because they
are already reflected in production reported by the
CSA. Since the USSR publishes no statistics on
uniquely military machinery production, we rely on
CIA estimates.
A second useful distinction within the machinery
branch is between producer durables and consumer
durables, reflected only infrequently in Soviet statis-
tics. Consumer durables output appears indirectly in
the official Tovary time series. Although SPIOER
formerly used this series as a proxy for consumer
durables, it neither consists exclusively of consumer
durables nor does it contain all consumer durables.
For example, the Tovary series includes nondurables
such as household chemicals, and may exclude the
production of passenger cars destined for private
purchase. Because reliable official data are not at
hand to separate consumer durables from producer
durables, we must use an alternative method.
The full title of this series is "production of commodities of
cultural-everyday significance and household articles" (proiz-
vodstvo tovarov kurturno-bytovogo naznacheniya i
khozyaystvennogo obikhoda). Hereafter this series is referred to as
Tovary.
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Figure 4
Structure of the Machinery Branch
To achieve the desired disaggregation of machinery
production according to end use, we rely on the
categories of final demand included in the recon-
structed Soviet input-output tables. These tables allo-
cate final demand among three categories: private
consumption, public consumption, and other final
demand. We assume that the machinery-producing
sectors allocate consumer durables output to private
consumption. Public consumption contains "consump-
tion of material product by state organizations and
agencies servicing the population, i.e., health, educa-
tional, entertainment, and other such agencies." In
addition, public consumption includes: consumption
by public housing, utilities, personal transportation,
communications, and the state. Other final demand
consists of net accumulation of fixed capital, working
capital, inventories, and state reserves; replacement of
depreciated fixed capital and capital losses and capital
repair; other expenditures and net exports." We as-
sume that both deliveries to public consumption and
to other final demand are preponderantly producer
durables. (This is an oversimplification because this
definition of producer durables undoubtedly captures
machinery that is uniquely military and any consumer
durables that are exported.) We then are able to
generate a set of value-added weights in each machin-
ery sector for producer durables and consumer dura-
bles. The details of this procedure are described
further in appendix B.
" Treml, Gallik, Kostinsky, and Kruger, Structure, pp. 48-49. Also
see Vladimir G. Treml, Dimtri M. Gallik, and Barry L. Kostinsky,
"1966 Ex Post Input-Output Tables for the USSR: A Survey,"
Vladimir G. Treml, ed., Studies in Soviet Input-Output Analysis,
(New York: Praeger Publishers, 1977), P. 9.
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Table 3
Industry: 1970 Value Added at Factor Cost by Branch
1970 Value Added by
Branch at Factor Cost
(billion rubles) a
Share of Industry Group
(percent) b
Share of Industry
(percent) c
Industrial Materials
59.113
100.0
49.7
Ferrous metals
8.793
14.9
7.4
Nonferrous metals
4.810
8.1
4.0
Fuel
12.070
20.4
10.1
Electric power
8.308
14.1
7.0
Chemicals
7.756
13.1
6.5
Wood, pulp, and paper
9.388
15.9
7.9
Construction materials
7.988
13.5
6.7
Machinery
38.528
100.0
32.4
Consumer nondurables
21.404
100.0
18.0
Light industry
9.761
45.6
8.2
Processed food
11.643
54.4
9.8
Subtotal
119.045
Other industry
3.564
Total industry
122.609
a JEC, GNP, 1950-80. See table E-4. The groups-industrial
materials and consumer nondurables-are sums of the branches
directly below them.
b Each value added in column 2 divided by the appropriate group
total.
c Value added in each branch and group divided by the subtotal for
all industry. The effect of dividing by the subtotal is to allocate other
industry proportionally among all of the branches.
The Index of Total Industrial Output
The calculation of indexes for the three major indus-
try groups and for total industry can be summarized
briefly. Since these indexes are used in estimating
Soviet GNP within the framework of the GNP ac-
counts maintained by the Office of Economic Re-
search, we use the branch value added at factor cost
in 1970 as weights instead of weights derived from
input-output tables. The purpose of using factor cost
instead of established prices for measuring value
added is to count the true resource costs of produc-
tion. The chief differences from an established price
valuation are that factor cost subtracts taxes, adds
subsidies, and imputes the costs of productive factors
not appropriately accounted for by Soviet procedures,
such as charges on fixed capital and working capital.'9
" See CIA, USSR: Gross National Product Accounts, 1970, pp. 1,
20, 85.
Table 3 shows these weights and the relative impor-
tance of each branch. The group and aggregate
indexes are obtained by converting each branch index
to a value-added basis and then summing the ele-
ments within each group and all industry.
Soviet Industrial Growth, 1950-80
Having described the methodology of the production
index, we present the indexes and review some of the
key developments in Soviet industry since 1950.
Revised SPIOER Indexes
The revised SPIOER indexes for the period 1950-80
are given in table 4 and the annual rates of growth in
table 5. The average annual rates of growth for
various quinquenniums are further summarized in
table 6. The indexes for the individual input-output
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Table 4
Soviet Industrial Production Indexes
1970=100
1959
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
Industrial materials
21.61
24.24
26.37
28.66
31.81
35.53
38.52
42.07
46.43
50.89
Ferrous metals
22.63
25.57
29.08
31.91
34.79
38.32
41.21
43.66
46.61
50.67
Nonferrous metals
19.00
21.54
24.24
27.03
29.58
34.72
36.81
38.88
41.04
44.38
Fuels
24.03
26.25
28.05
29.99
33.07
37.63
41.77
46.57
50.87
54.45
Electric power
12.48
14.20
16.25
18.33
20.49
23.10
26.03
28.51
32.00
35.97
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
13.03
14.31
15.61
17.22
19.59
22.52
25.26
27.65
31.02
33.72
Wood, pulp, and paper
40.37
45.80
47.60
49.63
54.66
57.65
59.70
63.91
69.87
76.29
Construction materials
14.18
16.13
18.19
21.22
24.73
29.37
32.61
37.88
45.19
52.00
Total machinery
21.61
23.73
25.78
28.07
30.60
34.20
36.67
39.16
42.10
45.89
Including:
Producer durables
14.29
15.31
16.96
19.63
22.01
24.94
28.45
33.40
37.97
41.81
Consumer durables
9.97
11.00
12.60
15.23
18.27
22.54
24.86
27.12
29.53
33.33
Consumer nondurables
24.79
28.79
31.00
34.17
37.42
40.47
44.24
46.71
50.33
54.88
Light industry
27.79
32.66
34.75
38.06
42.55
45.59
48.28
50.51
54.53
58.70
Processed food
22.27
25.55
27.85
30.91
33.12
36.18
40.86
43.54
46.82
51.68
Total industry
22.18
24.90
27.01
29.46
32.42
35.99
38.95
41.96
45.73
49.99
1969
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
Industrial materials
54.38
57.71
61.56
65.82
70.59
75.47
80.16
85.51
89.80
93.60
Ferrous metals
55.15
59.83
64.42
68.43
73.42
78.11
82.94
87.63
91.62
94.82
Nonferrous metals
48.37
52.42
57.07
61.53
65.21
69.88
76.69
83.50
90.17
94.66
Fuels
57.73
60.56
64.06
69.44
73.95
78.31
83.33
87.69
90.77
94.76
Electric power
39.65
44.46
50.16
55.80
62.03
68.26
73.48
79.13
86.09
92.90
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
37.13
40.82
45.12
49.98
56.85
65.32
71.85
79.02
84.67
89.82
Wood, pulp, and paper
76.40
76.29
78.09
81.38
85.07
86.77
87.17
91.52
93.71
95.37
Construction materials
58.27
62.57
65.77
67.60
70.88
75.76
81.22
86.97
90.36
92.16
Total machinery
50.07
54.30
59.84
63.67
67.75
71.48
74.72
79.72
86.90
92.88
Including:
Producer durables
44.82
48.26
54.55
58.67
63.72
68.53
72.50
78.52
86.34
92.17
Consumer durables
37.00
41.10
45.61
49.74
54.01
58.52
64.90
72.96
81.99
90.73
Consumer nondurables
57.75
60.92
63.89
65.72
68.51
73.17
77.40
83.44
88.99
94.34
Light industry
62.07
64.34
66.56
67.47
69.47
70.70
75.96
82.26
88.75
94.40
Processed food
54.12
58.06
61.66
64.26
67.70
75.25
78.61
84.42
89.18
94.30
Total industry
53.59
57.18
61.42
65.11
69.30
73.77
77.90
83.26
88.72
93.50
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Table 4 (continued)
Soviet Industrial Production Indexes
1970=100
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Industrial materials
100.00
105.66
110.76
116.88
123.12
130.19
134.88
138.77
142.62
144.11
147.77
Ferrous metals
100.00
103.79
107.25
111.57
116.30
121.45
124.70
125.60
128.38
128.45
128.02
Nonferrous
metals
100.00
107.02
112.72
119.56
126.92
132.89
137.08
141.26
145.90
150.22
151.43
Fuels
100.00
104.81
109.78
115.11
120.73
127.83
132.54
138.12
142.47
146.70
150.14
Electric power
100.00
108.12
115.80
123.62
131.88
140.58
150.29
155.65
162.90
167.68
175.26
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
100.00
108.06
115.28
125.71
137.67
151.03
158.26
166.55
172.49
172.88
181.90
Wood, pulp, and
paper
100.00
102.80
104.83
107.66
109.59
113.59
113.45
113.98
113.44
110.16
113.22
Construction
materials
100.00
106.67
112.27
119.01
124.61
130.24
134.76
137.37
140.73
141.19
142.59
Total machinery
100.00
108.12
115.61
125.25
135.96
146.38
154.50
163.21
172.39
182.04
189.96
Including:
Producer
durables
100.00
110.05
117.97
128.34
139.60
151.03
160.70
171.22
182.05
193.00
200.39
Consumer
durables
100.00
112.62
128.14
144.86
159.91
173.85
184.68
197.98
214.65
224.14
232.72
Consumer non-
durables
100.00
103.43
105.60
107.40
113.32
117.99
119.42
123.40
124.11
127.29
127.47
Light industry
100.00
104.48
105.26
108.24
111.11
114.30
119.05
122.06
125.21
127.41
129.96
Processed food
100.00
102.55
105.89
106.69
115.17
121.09
119.73
124.52
123.19
127.18
125.38
Total industry
100.00
106.06
111.40
117.88
125.51
133.24
138.45
143.92
148.93
153.36
157.77
sectors used for computing output for the branches
and total industry appear in appendix table A-2.
Major Trends in Industrial Production
The postwar period of Soviet industrial growth falls
naturally into three phases: an immediate postwar
boom, a period of stable-but slowly declining-
overall growth, and then a prolonged slowdown. These
three phases are clear and pronounced for total
industry and for industrial materials (figure 5). Ma-
chinery conforms to this pattern except in the middle
phase. Its growth slows initially in the 1960s, as do the
other groups, but growth then improves in the mid-
1960s where it remains on a plateau until the third
phase begins. Consumer nondurables also do not
exhibit a stable middle phase, showing instead large
growth fluctuations around a steadily declining trend.
The postwar industrial boom lasted through the 1950s
with annual industrial growth ranging between 8 and
12 percent per year. As the Soviet economy rebuilt
from the massive destruction of World War II, expan-
sion focused on those industries most vital to the
nation's investment programs-construction materials
and machinery. Production of consumer nondurables
generally grew more slowly even though production
was at a low absolute level.
The early 1960s marked the beginning of a new phase
in Soviet industrial development as growth slowed
sharply in practically every branch. For the next
decade and a half, the growth of total industrial
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Table 5
Soviet Industrial Production: Annual Rates of Growth
Percent
1959
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
Industrial materials
12.2
8.8
8.7
11.0
11.7
8.4
9.2
10.4
9.6
Ferrous metals
13.0
13.7
9.7
9.0
10.1
7.6
5.9
6.8
8.7
Nonferrous metals
13.3
12.5
11.5
9.4
17.4
6.0
5.6
5.6
8.1
Fuels
9.2
6.9
6.9
10.3
13.8
11.0
11.5
9.2
7.0
Electric power
13.8
14.4
12.8
11.8
12.7
12.7
9.5
12.3
12.4
Chemicals and petrochemicals
9.8
9.1
10.3
13.8
14.9
12.2
9.5
12.2
8.7
Wood, pulp, and paper
13.4
3.9
4.3
10.1
5.5
3.6
7.0
9.3
9.2
Construction materials
13.7
12.8
16.7
16.5
18.8
11.0
16.2
19.3
15.1
Total machinery
9.8
8.6
8.9
9.0
11.8
7.2
6.8
7.5
9.0
Including:
Producer durables
7.1
10.8
15.7
12.1
13.3
14.1
17.4
13.7
10.1
Consumer durables
10.3
14.6
20.9
20.0
23.3
10.3
9.1
8.9
12.9
Consumer nondurables
16.1
7.7
10.2
9.5
8.2
9.3
5.6
7.7
9.0
Light industry
17.5
6.4
9.5
11.8
7.1
5.9
4.6
8.0
7.6
Processed food
14.7
9.0
11.0
7.2
9.3
12.9
6.6
7.5
10.4
Total industry
12.2
8.5
9.1
10.1
11.0
8.2
7.7
9.0
9.3
1969
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
Industrial materials 6.9
6.1
6.7
6.9
7.2
6.9
6.2
6.7
5.0
4.2
Ferrous metals 8.8
8.5
7.7
6.2
7.3
6.4
6.2
5.7
4.6
3.5
Nonferrous metals 9.0
8.4
8.9
7.8
6.0
7.2
9.7
8.9
8.0
5.0
Fuels 6.0
4.9
5.8
8.4
6.5
5.9
6.4
5.2
3.5
4.4
Electric power 10.2
12.1
12.8
11.2
11.2
10.0
7.6
7.7
8.8
7.9
Chemicals and 10.1
petrochemicals
9.9
10.5
10.8
13.7
14.9
10.0
10.0
7.2
6.1
Wood, pulp, and paper 0.1
-0.1
2.4
4.2
4.5
2.0
0.5
5.0
2.4
1.8
Construction materials 12.1
7.4
5.1
2.8
4.8
6.9
7.2
7.1
3.9
2.0
Total machinery 9.1
8.5
10.2
6.4
6.4
5.5
4.5
6.7
9.0
6.9
Including:
Producer durables 7.2
7.7
13.0
7.5
8.6
7.5
5.8
8.3
10.0
6.8
Consumer durables 11.0
11.1
11.0
9.1
8.6
8.4
10.9
12.4
12.4
10.7
Consumer nondurables 5.2
5.5
4.9
2.9
4.2
6.8
5.8
7.8
6.7
6.0
Light industry 5.7
3.6
3.5
1.4
3.0
1.8
7.4
8.3
7.9
6.4
Processed food 4.7
7.3
6.2
4.2
5.3
11.2
4.5
7.4
5.6
5.7
Total industry 7.2
6.7
7.4
6.0
6.4
6.5
5.6
6.9
6.5
5.4
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Table 5 (continued)
Soviet Industrial Production: Annual Rates of Growth
Percent
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Industrial materials
6.8
5.7
4.8
5.5
5.3
5.7
3.6
2.9
2.8
1.0
2.5
Ferrous metals
5.5
3.8
3.3
4.0
4.2
4.4
2.7
0.7
2.2
0
-.3
Nonferrous metals 5.6
7.0
5.3
6.1
6.2
4.7
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.0
0.8
Fuels
5.5
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.9
5.9
3.7
4.2
3.1
3.0
2.3
Electric power
7.6
8.1
7.1
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.9
3.6
4.7
2.9
4.5
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
11.3
8.1
6.7
9.0
9.5
9.7
4.8
5.2
3.6
0.2
5.2
Wood, pulp, and
paper
4.9
2.8
2.0
2.7
1.8
3.6
-0.1
0.5
-0.5
-2.9
2.8
Construction
materials
8.5
6.7
5.2
6.0
4.7
4.5
3.5
1.9
2.4
0.3
1.0
Total machinery
7.7
8.1
6.9
8.3
8.5
7.7
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
4.4
Including:
Producer durables
8.5
10.1
7.2
8.8
8.8
8.2
6.4
6.5
6.3
6.0
3.8
Consumer
durables
10.2
12.6
13.8
13.0
10.4
8.7
6.2
7.2
8.4
4.4
3.8
Consumer non-
durables
6.0
3.4
2.1
1.7
5.5
4.1
1.2
3.3
0.6
2.6
0.1
Light industry
5.9
4.5
0.7
2.8
2.7
2.9
4.2
2.5
2.6
1.8
2.0
Processed food
6.0
2.6
3.3
0.8
7.9
5.1
-1.1
4.0
-1.1
3.2
-1.4
Total industry
7.0
6.1
5.0
5.8
6.5
6.2
3.9
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.9
production remained fairly stable at around 6 percent,
although it trended slightly downward. During this
period of apparent industrial consolidation, machinery
production continued to drive overall industrial
growth. Growth in industrial materials and consumer
nondurables was generally slower and showed a stron-
ger downward slide.
While all signs suggest that the growth of industrial
production slowed considerably after the 1950s, the
extent and suddenness of the decline in the indexes
may be deceptive. One likely cause of the sudden
slowdown is the decline in the workweek from 46 to
41 hours by 1960. Thus, even with a 4.4-percent
increase in industrial employment in 1960, labor
inputs increased only 0.5 percent.2� Considering that
21) Steven Rapawy, Estimates and Projections of the Labor Force
and Civilian Employment in the U.S.S.R. 1950 to 1990, Foreign
Economic Report Number 10, (Washington: U.S. Department of
Commerce, September 1976), p. 43. The data presented were
revised and updated in February 1980.
the Soviets historically have achieved growth by the
infusion of new inputs, it is not surprising that growth
slowed. A lesser possibility, is that statistical reporting
practices may have tightened after the 1950s to
reduce the inflation of reported output in later report-
ing periods!'
The current phase of industrial slowdown began in the
mid-1970s when growth of machinery production
started to falter and machinery production could no
longer offset the gradual slowdown in the growth of
materials and nondurables. This slowdown reflects the
slowing growth in the industrial labor force, a con-
tinuing failure to assimilate new production capacity
2 For a discussion of the padding of Soviet output statistics, see
Gregory Grossman, Soviet Statistics of Physical Output of Indus-
trial Commodities, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1960),
and Alec Nove, "A Note on the Availability and Reliability of
Soviet Statistics," in Morris Bornstein and Daniel R. Fusfeld, ed.,
The Soviet Economy: A Book of Readings (fourth edition;
Homewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1974), pp. 237-245.
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Table 6
Soviet Industrial Production: Average Annual Rates of Growth
Percent
1976-80
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
Industrial materials
10.5
8.9
6.8
5.8
5.4
2.6
Ferrous metals
11.1
7.6
7.2
5.1
4.0
1.1
Nonferrous metals
12.8
6.9
7.6
7.4
5.9
2.6
Fuels
9.4
8.9
6.3
5.0
5.0
3.3
Electric power
13.1
11.4
11.5
7.9
7.0
4.5
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
11.6
10.5
12.0
8.9
8.6
3.8
Wood, pulp, and paper
7.4
5.8
2.6
2.9
2.6
-0.1
Construction materials
15.7
14.7
5.4
5.7
5.4
1.8
Total machinery
9.6
7.9
7.4
6.9
7.9
5.4
Including:
Producer durables
11.8
12.4
8.9
7.8
8.6
5.8
Consumer durables
17.7
10.4
9.6
11.3
11.7
6.0
Consumer nondurables
10.3
7.4
4.8
6.4
3.4
1.6
Light industry
10.4
6.4
2.6
7.2
2.7
2.6
Processed food
10.2
8.4
6.8
5.9
3.9
0.7
Total industry
10.2
8.3
6.6
6.3
5.9
3.4
on time, declining capital productivity, and little
success in boosting worker productivity. The result
has been the low rates of industrial growth in recent
years.
The decline in growth is continuing. The USSR faces
severe strains because of deceleration in the growth of
available inputs-especially fuels, minerals, and la-
bor.22 The lack of success in boosting productivity
during the 10th Five-Year Plan suggests that the
Soviets will be hard pressed to offset tightening input
bottlenecks.
" See CIA, Soviet Economic Problems and Prospects, ER 77-
10536 U (July 1977).
Since 1950 some evolution of the industrial structure
has occurred:
Estimated Share of Industrial Percent
Value Added, 1967 Prices
1950
1980
Industrial materials
48.4
46.5
Total machinery
31.5
39.0
Consumer nondurables
20.1
14.5
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Figure 5
Growth of Soviet Industrial Production
Three-year moving average
Percent
Total industry
10
8
6
Industrial materials
10
8
6
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1 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0...0.0.0.0.6.46.41.6 � � � � � 6
2 �� � � � � �
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. .�
. . . . ....... .
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I 1..1.164 7.1.P ����:..1.../:.;�Fr.....r.;4�1.1..16./.� � � i � i 1
� � � � � � � � � �
0 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 0 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80
� �
1 � � �
� � � �
1 � � � � �
� � � � � �
0 � � � � � �
� � 41 � � �
1 � � � � � �
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. � � II � � � � � �
� � � � � � �
. � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
� � � � � �
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
� � � � � �
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
� � � � � � 41k..*.*.*.�.*.�.�.'.�.*.%��������
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
� � � � � �
Total machinery
10
8
6
4
�
II. � � �
� � �
11 � � �
� � � �
� � �
..� � � � � � �
� � � � � � � � � � � � � .
� � � � � �
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ���
� � � � � �
� � � � � � � 0.0.6.4..e.e.o.e.e.e.e.e.......b.e.
� � � � � � 40 � � do � � � � � or � � � � � � 0.
IP � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
� � � � � � � � � � � �
� � � � � �
O � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � e.. � e.10..0.�.�...
� � � � � � 000.������������� � � � �
O � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 4%80
2 � � � � � � .
� � � � � � � . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
� � � � � � � .0 � �
� � � � � � �
: : :1
0 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80
dr..
� � � �
� � � � � AD ��� � � � ��� ���
� � � � � �
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
� � � � � � 0'....... ���������������
� � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � �
ID � � � � � 4,........ �.��������������
1 � � � � � � � � � � � �...e.�...�.�...�
� � � � � � le � � � �
.'.'.'..
. . .
4
�
I P 101�41 S67.1� 1.15
Consumer nondurables
10
8
6
4
2
�
0 �
�
0 �
� � �
� � �
� � �
0 � � �
� � � �
0 � � � � �
� � � � � �
� � � � � �
0.0.0.0.0.0.0
� � � � � �
0 � � � � � �
� � � � � �
0 � � � � � �
� � � � � �
� � � � � �
� � � � � �
0 � � � � � �
� � � � � �
� � � � � � �
� � � � � �
0 � � � � � �
� � � � 0 �
0 � � � � � �
� � � � � �
� � � � � �
� � � � � �
0
1950
55
Postwar boom
Stable, slowly declining
Slowdown
60
65
70
75
80
196
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In 30 years, the share of industrial materials has
dropped by only 2 percentage points. Machinery's
share of the industrial pie has expanded by 8 percent-
age points until now where it represents nearly two-
fifths of industrial production. It comes as no surprise,
however, that this growing share comes mostly at the
expense of consumer nondurables.
Industrial Materials. During the overall decline in
the growth of the production of industrial materials
(from 10.5 percent per year in 1951-55 to 2.6 percent
per year in 1976-80) the relative growth positions of
the branches in the group changed markedly. At first,
construction materials, electric power, and nonferrous
metals were the fastest growing branches in the
industrial materials group as well as in all of industry.
The dramatic growth of: these three branches
stemmed from the needs of postwar reconstruction
and the rapid arms buildup during the Cold War.
Chemicals and ferrous metals were also leading sec-
tors in the early 1950s; fuels and wood, pulp, and
paper products were at the bottom. In the last half of
the decade, construction materials and electric power
maintained their strong growth positions and were
joined by chemicals. Meanwhile, both metals
branches slipped into the slow growth group.
Since the early 1960s, the chemicals branch has
become the fastest growing branch in all industry,
followed by electric power and a resurgent nonferrous
metals branch. Meanwhile, construction materials,
fuels, ferrous metals, and wood, pulp, and paper
branches have continued to grow below the average
for the industrial materials groups as a whole.
The years 1976-80 were particularly disastrous for
industrial materials. Growth in every branch of mate-
rials fell to record lows. Chemicals lost its position as
growth leader to the machinery branch. As an exam-
ple of the widespread slowdown, electric power be-
came the fastest growing component of industrial
materials even though its growth was only two-thirds
of the rate achieved from 1971 to 1975.
Machinery. The machinery branch has been the
fastest growing component of industrial production
for most of the 1960-80 period and has been perhaps
the most dynamic element in the entire economy.
Machinery experienced a sharp decline in growth in
the early 1960s along with the rest of industry. It
rebounded during the rest of the decade and into the
1970s, when it too began to share in the current
decline.
During much of the postwar era, the growth of
consumer durables output has outpaced producer
durables�partly because it started from an extremely
low base. The changing composition of consumer
durables production has also helped to generate strong
growth rates." In the 1950s consumer durables pro-
duction was so primitive that products such as kitchen
utensils and small electrical appliances accounted for
the bulk of the growth. In the 1960s larger appli-
ances�televisions, refrigerators, and washing ma-
chines�began to drive consumer durables output.
Early in the 1970s output of automobiles sold to
consumers also began to grow rapidly. In the past few
years, however, the growth of automotive production
has tailed off, and consumer durables growth has
approached that of producer durables. Some of this
deceleration may reflect strained supplies of ferrous
metals, which also support investment and the produc-
tion of military hardware.
Production of producer durables grew rapidly during
the postwar boom�even accelerating for a long
time�as capital stock throughout the economy was
replenished and expanded. Practically every machin-
ery component except that destined for consumer-
related industries shared in the revival. Toward the
end of the 1950s, growth of producer durables output
dropped sharply across the board, except for agricul-
tural machinery whose output expanded in the early
1960s. From the late 1960s until the beginning of the
current period of slowdown, growth picked up slightly
as investment expanded. During this period somewhat
" For an early discussion of the different phases of consumer
durables output when the product composition changed significant-
ly, see Marshall I. Goldman, "The Reluctant Consumer and
Economic Fluctuations in the Soviet Union," Journal of Political
Economy, (August 1965), pp. 366-380.
197
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more resources were devoted to machinery for con-
sumer industries, precision instruments, motor vehi-
cles, and agricultural machinery. In the 1970s, pro-
ducer durables growth has slowed with the rest of
industry, especially the production of motor vehicles,
freight cars, agricultural machinery, instruments, and
equipment for consumer industries.
Consumer Nonduraples. Light industry and processed
food generally have been the slowest growing
branches of industry. Production of consumer goods
traditionally has not had the highest priority, and
production of consumer nondurables by its very na-
ture reflects performance in the trouble-plagued agri-
cultural sector.
Although both processed food and light industry fared
well during the early boom period, output was still at
extremely low levels. Both branches experienced a
sharp decline in growth during the early 1960s, with
the burden felt most severely by light industry. This
decline reflected both a diversion of investment re-
sources away from the consumer branches and rela-
tively poor agricultural performance during 1961-64.
By the middle of the decade, the growth of nondura-
bles accelerated somewhat as crops improved and the
increased production of machinery for consumer in-
dustries began to have an impact on output. Light
industry especially profited from this shift that tempo-
rarily allowed consumer nondurables to grow faster
than the industrial average.
After the peak growth of nondurables output recorded
in 1967, growth again trended sharply downward.
Light industry fell back to its usual low growth
patterns after the initial surge of new capital stock
had worked its way through the system. The poor
agricultural performance of the 1970s hampered pro-
cessed food production: after the 1975 crop failure,
processed food production declined absolutely in
1976, for the first time in the post-Stalin era. In
addition, output in this branch declined twice more
during the 10th Five-Year Plan.
Evaluation of the New Indexes
Since SPIOER was developed because the official
industrial production indexes released by the CSA are
unreliable, we need to judge the degree of improve-
ment that SPIOER represents. We examine the syn-
thetic indexes from several perspectives. One criterion
is for consistency with the official data. Although the
official indexes are unreliable growth measures, the
SPIOER and official indexes should at least agree on
the configuration of trends, and the indexes should at
least roughly correspond regarding the relative
growth among sectors. In addition, these indexes
should satisfactorily remove the growth distortions;
we would expect that generally the SPIOER growth
rate should fall below the official rates. A second
criterion is for the product sample to be representative
of total industrial output. Although the inclusion in
the sample of a large share of industrial product
should help satisfy this standard, this does not guaran-
tee that the sample will move as total industrial
output especially if the material intensity of produc-
tion has changed over time. According to a third
citerion, any biases in the basic data should be
minimal or at least partially offsetting. In this section
of the paper, the SPIOER indexes are subjected to a
series of tests to determine how well they satisfy the
criteria of consistency, representativeness, and mini-
mal bias.
Consistency Tests
Consistency With the Official Indexes. Consistency
first implies that both sets of indexes�synthetic and
official�should show roughly similar relative rates of
growth among the branches of industry. Where differ-
ences arise in the fastest or slowest growth sectors,
there should be a plausible explanation.
To test this property, average annual rates of growth
were computed for six periods for every branch of
industry for both SPIOER and the official indexes."
For each five-year period the branches were ranked
" The nonferrous metals branch was excluded from this and other
tests because the CSA does not publish an appropriate index for
that branch.
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Table 7
Rankings of Industrial Branches by Growth Rates
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-80
Ferrous metals
SPIOER
Official
4
6
7
5
4
5
7
7
6
8
7
7
Fuels
SPIOER
Official
8
7
4
6
6
7
8
7
5
5
4
Electric power
SPIOER
Official
2
4
2
3
2
3
2
3
3
4
2
3
Chemicals and petrochemicals
SPIOER
Official
3
2
3
4
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
2
Wood, pulp, and paper
SPIOER
Official
9
9
9
8
9
8
9
9
9
7
9
9
Construction materials a
SPIOER
Official
1
1
1
1
7
4
6
4
4
3
6
6
Machinery
SPIOER
Official
7
3
6
2
3
2
4
2
2
1
Light industry
SPIOER
Official
5
5
8
9
8
9
3
5
5
4
Processed food
SPIOER
Official
6
8
5
7
5
6
5
6
7
6
8
8
Spearman's Rank
Correlation Coefficient b
Sum of Squared
Differences c
0.75
30
0.73
32
0.87
16
0.88
16
0.88
14
0.97
4
a For the official series, the construction materials branch is a
combination of the published construction materials and glass and
porcelain indexes.
b Freund, Modern Elementary Statistics, pp. 364-366.
c The sum of squared differences derived in the Spearman Rank
Order Correlation test is significant at 99-percent level of confidence
if the value is less than 20. For a discussion of the significance test,
see James V. Bradley, Distribution-Free Statistical Tests, (Engle-
wood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1968), pp. 93-95, 314.
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by growth rates. A statistical test was then performed
using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient to de-
termine the degree of agreement in branch growth
rankings between the SPIOER and official indexes."
The results are summarized in table 7. The sum of
squared differences indicate that the rank correlation
coefficients for the 1960s and 1970s are significant at
the 99-percent confidence level�strong statistical evi-
dence that both SPIOER and official branch indexes
exhibit similar relative growth. The 1950s are a
different matter, however, as the correlation is not
significant at this level of confidence. The source of
this insignificance is the wide disagreement over the
machinery rankings. Both quinquenniums in the
1950s give machinery a rank four places higher in the
official indexes than in the SPIOER versions. Perhaps
disguised inflation operated at higher rates then than
in the later periods. In every five-year period except
1971-75, both indexes agree on the most rapidly
growing branch; in the one exception, the fastest
growing branch in the SPIOER series is ranked
second in the Soviet data. Moreover, in nearly every
case the slowest growing branch in one set of indexes
matches either the slowest or next slowest in the
other. The largest divergence in rankings occurs
during the 1950s, the smallest deviation during the
most recent quinquennium.
Since the beginning of the 1960s, the major incongru-
ities have involved construction materials and machin-
ery. The official series generally ascribe a higher rank
to these two branches. In the case of construction
materials, double-counting seems to have increased
over the years, causing the growth of gross value of
construction materials measured by the official data
to be more rapid than our estimated growth of output.
The increase in double-counting results partly from a
conscious drive to "industrialize" construction. (See
earlier discussion.)
The machinery anomaly occurs because machinery is
probably the branch most susceptible to the problems
of new-product pricing. The official machinery index
becomes an uncertain amalgamation of constant
prices and current prices�the latter tending to rise
" See John E. Freund, Modern Elementary Statistics, (3rd Edition;
Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1967), pp. 364-366.
over time. The official machinery index inflated by so-
called new product prices grows more rapidly than the
SPIOER output indexes, so machinery tends to rank
higher in the official series.
Plausible Elimination of Inflated Growth. The offi-
cial indexes are unacceptable because of the twin
biases of new-product pricing and double-counting
that exaggerate growth according to most Western
observers and even some Soviet ones. If the SPIOER
indexes are to be plausible measures of industrial
growth, the difference between the SPIOER and
official rates should be largest for those branches of
industry most susceptible to upward bias�machinery,
chemicals, and construction materials. The average
annual rates of growth for both the official and
SPIOER series are shown in table 8 for each quin-
quennial period since 1950. The SPIOER growth rate
is less than the official rate in each comparison period
for total industry and for the individual branches with
the exception of fuels (1956-60 and 1976-80) and
processed food (1951-55 and 1956-60). The largest
reductions in growth occur in those industries with the
most severe new product pricing and double-counting
problems: machinery, chemicals, and construction
materials (table 9).
All of these tests of SPIOER's consistency with the
official index have considered only multiyear periods.
A year-by-year comparison for total industry (table 10
and figure 6) shows that the SPIOER growth rate is
less than the official rate for every year.
Thus, to the extent that the SPIOER methodology is
designed to avoid the growth distortions in the official
series, it seems to do so. In most cases the rate of
growth measured by SPIOER falls below the rate
claimed in the official Soviet measures. Moreover,
SPIOER reduces the rate of growth most in those
branches�machinery, chemicals, and construction
materials�most afflicted by new-product pricing and
increased double-counting.
Consistency of Growth Trends. A third consistency
test compares the aggregate and branch growth
trends measured by the SPIOER and official indexes.
The SPIOER indexes should agree in general with the
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Table 8
Percent
Comparisons of Average Annual Growth in
SPIOER and Official Series
1971-75
1976-80
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
Total industry
SPIOER
Official
10.2
13.1
8.3
10.4
6.6
8.6
6.3
8.4
5.9
7.5
3.4
4.4
Ferrous metals
SPIOER
Official
11.1
12.1
7.6
8.8
7.2
8.0
5.1
5.7
4.0
5.0
1.1
1.9
Fuels
SPIOER
Official
9.4
10.1
8.9
8.5
6.3
6.5
5.0
5.7
5.0
5.1
3.3
2.9
Electric power
SPIOER
Official
13.1
14.4
1L4
13.1
11.5
12.3
7.9
9.0
7.0
7.1
4.5
5.0
Chemicals and petrochemicals
SPIOER
Official
11.6
17.3
10.5
12.0
12.0
14.4
8.9
12.2
8.6
10.6
3.8
5.7
Wood, pulp, and paper
SPIOER
Official
7.4
8.3
5.8
7.8
2.6
5.0
2.9
5.5
2.6
5.2
-0.1
1.5
Construction materials
SPIOER
Official
15.7
17.6
14.7
17.6
5.4
9.1
5.7
8.6
5.4
7.5
1.8
2.5
Machinery
SPIOER
Official
9.6
16.7
7.9
14.2
7.4
12.4
6.9
11.7
7.9
11.6
5.4
8.2
Light industry
SPIOER
Official
10.4
12.3
6.4
6.9
2.6
2.6
7.2
8.6
2.7
4.6
2.6
3.4
Processed food
SPIOER
Official
10.2
10.0
8.4
7.9
6.8
7.2
5.9
5.9
3.9
5.4
0.7
1.5
trends of the official indexes with respect to relative
growth in different periods unless official series give
totally distorted view of the pattern of growth over
time.
For example, a test for secular consistency might
compare growth in the fifties with that in the seven-
ties. A radical divergence between the SPIOER and
the official indexes with respect to the pattern of
Soviet development would throw considerable doubt
on the synthetic indexes. We expect that even though
a the official indexes are biased, they nonetheless reflect
actual growth trends.
To perform this test, we first compute the average
annual rate of growth for 1951-80 and then several
multiyear periods within that span for both SPIOER
and the official series. These period growth rates are
indexed relative to the historical average for that
branch to then test both series for similar long-term
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Table 9
Percentage Points
Difference Between Official and SPIOER Average Annual Growth
Rates for Industry and Branches of Industry a
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-80
Total industry
2.9
2.1
2.0
2.1
1.6
1.0
Ferrous metals
1.0
1.2
0.8
0.6
1.0
0.8
Fuels
0.7
-0.4
0.2
0.7
0.1
-0.4
Electric power
1.3
1.7
0.8
1.1
0.1
0.5
Chemicals and petrochemicals
5.7
1.5
2.4
3.3
2.0
1.9
Wood, pulp, and paper
0.9
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.6
1.6
Construction materials
1.9
2.9
3.7
2.9
2.1
0.7
Machinery
7.1
6.3
5.0
4.8
3.7
2.8
Light industry
1.9
0.5
0.0
1.4
1.9
0.8
Processed food
-0.2
-0.5
0.4
0.0
1.5
0.8
a These numbers represent the average annual percentage rate of
growth for the official series less the SPIOER rates. Thus, a positive
value indicates that SPIOER has a lower growth rate, while a
negative one implies the opposite.
movements. Interpretation of the test results is com-
plicated because growth consistency can be assessed
on at least four different planes, none of which is
necessarily preferred. Maximum consistency between
SPIOER and the official indexes is not necessarily
optimal, since a trade-off exists between the accuracy
of the SPIOER indexes and their consistency with the
official indexes. As the degree of SPIOER's consisten-
cy with the official indexes increases, eventually a
point is reached where greater consistency implies
mere replication of the growth distortions in the
official indexes.
A minimal interpretation of growth consistency re-
quires simply that the SPIOER and official growth
indexes agree on the above- or below-average years.
Another interpretation of consistency is that the
SPIOER and official indexes agree regarding the
extremes, the periods of highest and lowest growth. A
level of consistency even more difficult to achieve is
that the growth rates of the SPIOER indexes and the
official series move in the same direction from one
period to the next. However, seeking consistency here
risks forcing the inaccuracies of the official series onto
the synthetic indexes. The highest degree of consisten-
cy (in some cases undesirable) requires that the values
of the indexed growth rates be nearly equal for a
given period. Failure to ensure this highly rigid form
of consistency is not critical, unless we assert that the
amount of distortion in the official indexes remains
unchanged from year to year.
When the test results are interpreted from the stand-
point of the agreement on above- and below-average
years-whether the growth indexes are above or
below 100-the SPIOER indexes do quite well (table
11). In only two out of 60 possible instances do the
SPIOER and official indexes clearly disagree in
assigning above- or below-average performance to a
given period. In the two exceptions-chemicals and
petrochemicals in 1966-70 and machinery in 1971-
75-only marginal changes in the index would remove
the inconsistency.
The consistency of SPIOER and official indexes with
respect to the identification of the periods of hiphest
and lowest growth is quite good. SPIOER estimates
agree with the official indexes on the high growth
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Table 10
Difference Between Official and SPIOER
Growth Rates for Industry
Official a
(percent)
SPIOER
(percent)
Difference b
(percentage
point)
1951
16.4
12.2
4.2
1952
11.6
8.5
3.1
1953
12.0
9.1
2.9
1954
13.3
10.1
2.2
1955
12.5
11.0
1.5
1956
10.6
8.2
2.4
1957
10.0
7.7
2.3
1958
10.3
9.0
1.3
1959
11.4
9.3
2.1
1960
9.5
7.2
2.3
1961
9.1
6.7
2.4
1962
9.7
7.4
2.3
1963
8.1
6.0
2.1
1964
7.3
6.4
0.9
1965
8.7
6.5
2.2
1966
8.7
5.6
3.1
1967
10.0
6.9
3.1
1968
8.3
6.5
1.8
1969
7.1
5.4
1.7
1970
8.5
7.0
1.5
1971
7.7
6.1
1.6
1972
6.5
5.0
1.5
1973
7.5
5.8
1.7
1974
8.0
6.5
1.5
1975
7.5
6.2
1.3
1976
4.8
3.9
0.9
1977
5.7
4.0
1.7
1978
4.8
3.5
1.3
1979
3.4
3.0
0.4
1980 c
3.6
2.9
0.7
a Central Statistical Agency, Narkhoz 78, 79, and 80, (Moscow:
Statistika, 1979, 80, and 81) p. 38.
b This is the annual growth rate of the official series less the SPIOER
rates. Thus, a positive value indicates that SPIOER has reduced the
growth rate while a negative one implies the opposite.
c Preliminary.
period for total industry and eight out of nine
branches and on the low growth period for all indexes.
Only a minor shift would lead to perfect consistency
at this level. A change in average growth rate of only
0.4 percentage point would bring the series for chemi-
cals into conformity on the best growth periods.
The secular consistency of SPIOER with respect to
comparable period-to-period growth trends is surpris-
ingly good. Table 12 summarizes the directional
structure of the two growth index series. A negative
sign indicates that growth has slowed while a positive
one signifies an acceleration. When both signs match
during a given period, the two indexes agree that
growth has accelerated or decelerated. Of the 50
possible comparisons between the two sets of indexes,
they agree on directional trend 45 times." Three of
the five inconsistencies occur in the two branches of
industry-construction materials and machinery-
with the least reliable official output indexes.
Consistent agreement on relative deviations of sub-
period growth rates from the 1950-80 average is hard
to interpret in terms of the reasonableness of the
synthetic series because relative bias in either the
official indexes or SPIOER may change. In any case
the performance of SPIOER is mixed in this sort of
comparison. In some cases-such as total industry,
electric power, ferrous metals, and fuels-agreement
is good on the pattern of growth. In others-like
wood, pulp, and paper and construction materials-
the magnitudes of growth shifts are very different in
the two series. Therefore, SPIOER gives a somewhat
different picture of the pattern of development in
these latter branches.
Consistency With Investment Series. Another way to
test the representativeness of the producer durables
sample is to compare this index with the official series
26 The test treats a result of no trend in one series versus some trend
in the other as no match.
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Figure 6
SPIOER and Official Series: Comparison of Annual Growth Rates for Industry
Percent
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
\
0 1950 55 60 65 70
aNarkhoz
bThis is the annual growth rate of the
official series less the SPIOER rates.
000- w
75 80
- Officiala
- SPIOER difference
Difference b
for the machinery and equipment component of in-
vestment since investment goods make up the major
portion of producer durables. The official series for
investment in machinery should be comprehensive
with each individual product valued at its own price
(unlike SPIOER's index for producer durables pro-
duction, which is based on a sample).
Before performing the comparison the investment
series must be adjusted to a production basis. Machin-
ery does not appear in the investment data as soon as
it is produced. In addition, some allowance must be
made for foreign trade. Domestically produced ma-
chinery that is exported never appears in the invest-
ment data. Likewise, imported machinery appears in
the investment data, but is never reflected in the
production data.
Given the frequent delays in the construction indus-
try, we assume that on average production or imports
of machinery are reflected in investment after a year's
lag.
Implied Production t = Investment t+I � Net Imports t
The investment series so adjusted is compared with
the SPIOER producer durables series in figure 7."
" Foreign trade in machinery and equipment is reported in
Vneshnyaya torgovlya SSSR in current foreign trade rubles; in
contrast the investment series is reported in constant estimate prices
of 1969. The foreign trade data are adjusted in the following way.
First, net imports of machinery and equipment are computed in
current foreign trade rubles. Second, a price index for imports is
derived by comparing the relative growth of two series for total
imports�one in comparable prices and the other in current prices.
This implicit price index is used to deflate machinery imports, even
though it is bascd on all imports, including non-machinery pro-
ducts. Hence some possible error is introduced by this procedure
unless machinery prices have moved in the same pattern as all
import prices. Finally, net imports of machinery and equipment in
constant prices are adjusted to domestic prices by using a coeffi-
cient of 0.978 estimated by Vladimir Treml for 1972. Although the
assumptions used to make the foreign trade data comparable with
the investment data may be tenuous, machinery imports are a small
share of investment.
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Table 11
SPIOER and Official Industrial Indexes:
Comparisons of Secular Growth Patterns a
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-80
Ferrous metals
SPIOER
Official
188
175
129
128
122
116
86
83
68
74
19
28
Fuels
SPIOER
Official
149
153
141
129
l 00
98
79
86
79
89
52
44
Electric power
SPIOER
Official
142
143
124
130
125
122
86
89
76
70
49
50
Chemicals and petrochemicals
SPIOER
Official
126
144
114
100
130
120
97
102
93
88
41
48
Wood, pulp, and paper
SPIOER
Official
211
151
166
142
74
91
83
100
74
95
�3
27
Construction materials
SPIOER
Official
196
169
184
169
68
88
71
83
68
72
22
24
Machinery
SPIOER
Official
128
135
105
115
99
100
92
94
105
94
72
66
Light industry
SPIOER
Official
196
192
121
108
49
41
136
134
51
72
49
53
Processed food
SPIOER
Official
173
159
142
125
115
114
100
94
66
86
12
28
Total industry
SPIOER
Official
150
151
122
120
97
99
93
97
87
86
50
51
a Each value is the ratio of the period average to the postwar average.
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Table 12
SPIOER and Official Industrial Indexes:
Directional Changes in Growth
From (1951-55)
to (1956-60)
From (1956-60)
to (1961-65)
From (1961-65)
to (1966-70)
From (1966-70)
to (1971-75)
From (1971-75)
to (1976-80)
Ferrous metals
SPIOER
Official
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Fuels
SPIOER
Official
�
�
_
�
�
_
0
+
-
-
Electric power
SPIOER
Official
-
-
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
Chemicals and petrochemicals
SPIOER
Official
�
�
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
Wood, pulp, and paper
SPIOER
Official
-
-
-
-
+
+
-
-
-
-
Construction materials
SPIOER
Official
-
+
-
-
+
-
-
-
-
Machinery
SPIOER
Official
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
-
-
Light industry
SPIOER
Official
-
-
-
-
+
+
-
-
-
-
Processed food
SPIOER
Official
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total industry
SPIOER
Official
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Figure 7
Comparison of Production of Producer Durables and Adjusted Investment
Index: 1970=100
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
I
0 1950
55
I I
60
I I 1 I
65
I I ii
70
I Ii
75
ii
80
- Machinery investment
- Producer durables
The close correspondence between the two series over
the postwar period suggests that the producer dura-
bles sample is representative of the total output of this
type of machinery. When examining growth rates
instead of indexes, as shown in the tabulation below,
the relationship between the two series does not
appear quite as close:
Average Annual Growth of
Adjusted Machinery Investment
and Producer Durables
Percent
Adjusted
Machinery
Investment
SPIDER
Producer
Durables
1951-55
14.6
11.8
1956-60
10.0
12.4
1961-65
9.6
8.9
1966-70
7.7
7.8
1971-75
9.1
8.6
1976-79
5.2
6.3
1951-79
9.5
9.4
In some periods the two series diverge substantially in
terms of average annual rates of growth. Both series
grew at about the same rate from 1950 to 1979.
The machinery investment series may also be
susceptible to the effects of new-product pricing and
hence disguised inflation. Thus, the close relationship
could mean that the producer durables index has not
successfully removed all traces of disguised inflation
and has some upward bias.
Sample Representativeness
Sample Coverage. A statistical sample should at least
include enough items to ensure that the characteris-
tics of the sample approach those of the total. In
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general, the larger the sample's share of the total, the
greater the likelihood that its characteristics are
similar to those of the full population.'
Using the 1972 input-output table as a point of
reference enables us to measure the sample coverage
and to identify those areas of industry where a
relatively small sample threatens the accuracy of the
indexes. If we sum the value of all the products within
each sector's sample for 1972 and compare this wit4
the reported GVO in the input-output table, we get a
rough notion of the percentage of industrial output
covered by SPIOER, at least for that year. The
measure is rough because differences in accounting
practices and pricing make the industrial sample and
the input-output table incompatible in some respects.
For example, the production of commodities pub-
lished in physical units includes intraplant turnover,
but the value of production as reported in the input-
output table presumably removes intraplant turnover
in measuring gross output." Production data ex-
pressed as a CSA index and perhaps as a value series
are also usually reported on an establishment basis,
and the input-output data are compiled on a commod-
ity basis. A commodity-based classification scheme
rebases the secondary production of an enterprise to
the industry to which it ostensibly should belong, but
establishment-based classification makes no attempt
at such a correction." Another important difference is
the SPIOER sample's use of 1 July 1967 prices and
the input-output table's use of 1972 prices. To the
extent that there has been inflation�concealed or
otherwise�our estimated sample coverage may be
understated.
2' A large share�but less than 100 percent�does not ensure that
the sample represents the total if the products included are atypical.
For example, Soviet production data may be upward biased because
the CSA publishes only data that reflect favorably on Soviet
accomplishments. On the other hand, some published data under-
state growth because the Soviets generally measure output in
natural units, like the number of bulldozers. Such treatment fails to
capture changes in product assortment and quality. Therefore,
because of the peculiarities of Soviet data, a large sample share
does not guarantee the representativeness of the sample.
Narodnoye khozyaystvo v 1978 g, p. 580 and Treml, Gallik,
Kostinsky, and Kruger, Structure, pp. 46-47. Also see the earlier
discussion of gross output measures in this paper.
Treml, Gallik, Kostinsky, and Kruger, Structure, pp. 123-146.
In SPIOER's coverage of industrial production, 87
percent of the industrial sectors reported in the recon-
structed 1972 input-output table have some form of
representation in the sample (table 13). The machin-
ery branch has the most sectors and also the most
gaps in coverage, although the missing sectors are
relatively unimportant. Of the represented sectors the
median coverage is 71 percent with the degree of
coverage ranging from 8 percent in one machinery
sector to more than 100 percent in certain sectors in
the construction materials, light industry, and proc-
essed food branches.3' Coverage in four of 10 branches
is more than 70 percent, and all but two have at least
50-percent coverage. The most restricted samples are
found in nonferrous metals (29 percent) and chemicals
(42 percent); statistics on production of nonferrous
metals and many chemicals are considered classified
by Soviet authorities and hence are not reported.
Machinery coverage would have been low�about
one-half�except that we added our estimates of
military machinery to the value of the sample. Overall
in this benchmark year the SPIOER sample ac-
counted for about 60 percent of Soviet industrial
production.
A Rough Measure of Sample Representativeness. The
fact that SPIOER product samples represent substan-
tial shares of total output in 1972 does not guarantee
that the samples are representative in terms of their
growth. The best available benchmarks of representa-
tiveness are the various input-output tables. One
rough measure can be performed computing gross
value of output in current rubles from the 1959, 1966,
and 1972 input-output tables for 10 branches of
3' The sectors where this occurs are: logging (115 percent), cement
(106 percent), concrete (106 percent), asbestos cement (118 percent),
linen (159 percent), hosiery and knitwear (125 percent), flour and
cereal (142 percent), and fruit and vegetables (155 percent). There
are several possible explanations for the seeming anomaly. First the
average wholesale prices used by SPIOER could be too high.
Second, in some cases prices may have been reduced between 1967
and 1972. Third, different definitions of output and differences
arising from the conflict between commodity versus establishment
classifications also play a role.
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Table 13
Estimated Sample Coverage of SPIOER Indexes in 1972
Number of
Sectors in
Branch
Number of
Sectors
With a
Sample
Minimum
Sector
Coverage
(percent)
Maximum
Sector
Coverage
(percent)
Branch
Coverage a
(percent)
Ferrous metals b
5
4
70.5
98.0
78.6
Nonferrous metals
2
1
37.8
37.8
29.1
Fuels c
6
6
23.4
86.6
71.8
Electric power
1
1
89.3
89.3
89.3
Machinery
27
21
8.3
100.0
67.4
Chemicals and petrochemicals
10
9
34.8
100.0
42.2
Wood, pulp, and paper
6
5
47.2
114.9
70.4
Construction materials
8
8
14.3
118.5
65.7
Light industry
8
7
16.2
159.1
56.4
Processed food
10
10
17.0
155.1
55.1
Total industry
83
72
8.3
159.1
59.9
a Branch coverage is the sum of the value of sector samples expressed
as a percent of the branch GVO. In estimating SPIOER's coverage
we have relied on two decision rules to compute shares. First, if the
sector is represented within the SPIOER sample by an official GVO
index, we assume that is equivalent to 100-percent coverage, since
the official production indexes presumably are based on full
coverage. See Abraham S. Becker, Ruble Price Levels. Second, if
the sample coverage computes to more than the sector GVO, we
assumed sector coverage is 100 percent for estimating branch and
industry coverage.
b The coke products sectors of the ferrous metals branch is described
by a proxy linked to the index for extraction of coking coal. In this
tabulation the sample share for this sector is treated as zero. If the
share were treated as complete coverage, branch coverage would
increase from 78.6 percent to 88.6 percent.
Two sector samples in the fuels branch-those for peat and oil
shale-use an average unit value rather than a true unit price. In this
tabulation the sample share is taken as zero, an obvious understate-
ment. If the share were treated as 100 percent, the fuels branch
sample share would only increase from 71.8 percent to 74.0 percent.
industry (ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy are com-
bined). These GVOs are then "deflated" to constant
1972 rubles by the published Soviet indexes of enter-
prise wholesale prices. We realize that these indexes
are not an adequate gauge of price movements.
Nonetheless, analysis of their construction suggests
they are most deficient in the machinery branch and
less so elsewhere. Then revised branch indexes are
constructed from the SPIOER data by using gross
output weights in 1972 for the sectors, rather than
value-added weights, to build synthetic branch GVO
indexes in constant prices. Next, average annual rates
of growth for the periods 1960-66 and 1967-72 are
computed for both the deflated GVO branch indexes
from the input-output table and the SPIOER indexes
adjusted to a gross output basis.
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Table 14
Percent
SPIOER and 1-0 GVO: Comparisons of
Average Annual Growth Rates
1960-66
1967-72
Deflated
1-0 Values
Revised
SPIOER
Deflated
1-0 Values
Revised
SPIOER
Metallurgy
7.4
7.5
5.2
5.1
Fuels
4.2
5.9
7.2
4.8
Electric power
11.6
10.7
8.5
7.9
Machinery
17.0
7.0
10.5
7.4
Chemicals and petrochemicals
12.0
10.9
11.2
8.0
Wood, pulp, and paper
3.8
2.3
5.8
3.3
Construction materials
7.7
7.3
6.8
5.7
Light industry
5.9
3.6
7.2
5.2
Processed food
5.4
5.4
5.7
5.2
In 15 of the 18 comparisons in table 14, the SPIOER
growth rate is less than the growth of deflated GVO
from the input-output tables; in one case the rates are
equal and in only two instances are SPIOER rates
greater.
The lower SPIOER rate is consistent with our under-
standing of Soviet price indexes. Because official price
indexes do not capture all of the real price inflation,
deflation of GVOs in the input-output tables by the
official price series does not remove all of the price
inflation from measured real growth. We would there-
fore expect SPIOER growth rates to be below those
derived from input-output GV0s, as they generally
are. While this does not prove that the sample is
representative of all industrial output, it does suggest
that any sampling errors are likely to produce a lower
growth rate rather than a higher one. This is comfort-
ing because the greatest threats to measurement
errors are likely in the opposite direction. (See the
following discussion in "Biases in the Quantity and
Value Data.")
Biases in the Basic Data
Changes in the Material Intensity of Production.
Only the 1972 input-output table is used in the
SPIOER computations to estimate the output indexes
for the branches of industry. This practice implicitly
assumes that the ratio of value added to gross output
for each sector remains approximately constant over
the period. If this assumption is wildly unrealistic, the
SPIOER indexes would fail to move in a manner
representative of the movement of national industrial
output. To avoid this strong assumption, one would
need a highly disaggregated input-output table for
every year, although only three-for 1959, 1966, and
1972-have been compiled thus far. Even these three
tables cannot be easily used together because
SPIOER is a constant price index and the input-
output tables are in current rubles.
Fortunately this work already has been partly done on
a limited basis for 18 sectors in two companion studies
by Vladimir Treml and Gene Gui11.32 By using these
constant price tables for the three benchmark years-
1959, 1966, and 1972-it becomes possible to com-
pare movements in gross output and value added. The
"See Vladimir G. Treml, Price Indexes for Soviet I8-Sector Input-
Output Tables for 1959-1975, Technical Note SSC-TN-5943-1,
(Arlington, Virginia: SRI International, June 1978), for a deriva-
tion of the price indexes. Also see Gene D. Guill, Deflation of the
18 Sector Soviet Input-Output Tables, Technical Note SSC-TN-
5943-4, (Arlington, Virginia: SRI International, August 1978), for
the derivation of input-output tables for several years in 1970
producer prices.
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Table 15
Gross Output and Value Added in Input-Output Tables at Constant Prices
(Average Annual Percentage Rate of Growth)
Sector
1960-66
1967-72
Gross
Output
(percent)
Value
Added a
(percent)
Difference
(percentage
point)
Gross
Output
(percent)
Value
Added a
(percent)
Difference
(percentage
point)
Metallurgy
7.4
8.3
-0.9
5.7
3.3
2.4
Coal
0.8
-1.4
2.2
2.0
-1.0
3.0
Oil
8.6
9.8
-1.2
12.7
13.1
-0.4
Gas
17.8
17.8
0
5.6
4.9
0.7
Electric power
11.6
14.0
-2.4
8.3
9.1
-0.8
Machinery
s13.1
12.0
1.1
10.2
12.3
-2.1
Chemicals and petrochemicals 11.8
12.5
-0.7
9.4
9.6
-0.2
Wood products
3.8
3.2
0.6
5.3
5.0
0.3
Paper
4.3
5.2
-0.9
11.7
10.9
0.8
Construction materials
7.7
9.2
-1.5
7.8
7.8
0
Light industry
5.7
6.0
-0.3
7.1
8.1
-1.0
Processed food b
4.8
NMF
NMF
5.2
NMF
NMF
Industry without processed
food
7.8
7.3
0.5
8.2
8.5
-0.3
NMF means no meaningful figure.
a Including amortization deductions.
b A comparison for processed food is not possible because of the
negative value added in this sector owing to heavy state subsidies.
results of this comparison (table 15) suggest that gross
output does change, for the most part, in line with
value added. In over two-thirds of the comparisons the
differences in growth rates between gross output and
value added are less than 1 percentage point. The
cases with the largest divergence in growth rates are
coal in both periods, electric power in 1960-66, and
metallurgy and machinery in 1967-72. In general,
value added tended to grow slightly slower than gross
output in the early period and faster in the later
period.
These results indicate that the assumption of a con-
stant ratio of value added to gross output should not
bias the SPIOER indexes much as measures of value
added. Moreover, in those instances of wide disagree-
ment between the gross output and value-added
growth in table 15, the explanation may lie in the
unreliability of the price deflators used for machinery
output (and input) and changes in product mix within
input-output sectors. If subsectors within any of the
18 sectors have widely disparate gross output to value-
added ratios, the growth of gross output for the full
sector need not match that of value added. SPIOER
partially circumvents the product mix problem by
disaggregating industrial production to a more de-
tailed level than represented in the 18-sector input-
output tables used by Treml and Guill. The greater
level of detail in SPIOER allows variations in the
ratio of value added to gross output at the 18-sector
level and freezes the ratio only at a more detailed
sectoral breakdown.
On balance, the effect on the SPIOER indexes of the
inability to construct true indexes of value added-a
problem that exists in the production indexes of many
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Western countries�remains unresolved. Much de-
pends on the direction and degree of technological
change. If materials use or intensity has generally
declined over time, SPIOER's growth would be exces-
sively slow. Increases in materials intensity would
cause errors in the opposite direction.
Biases in the Quantity and Value Data. While the
SPIOER sample covers a large portion of Soviet
industrial production in 1972, other sample properties
could bias the synthetic indexes.
The quantity series employed in samples of sector
production on balance may understate growth. For
example, a bulldozer in a given model category
produced in 1950 is counted the same as a bulldozer
produced in, for example, 1962 despite any model
improvements that may have been introduced.
Ideally, the SPIOER methodology should account for
changes in average product quality, but this would
require engineering studies of every product. Quantity
series also do not measure changes in product mix,
which could reduce the reliability of these series as
measures of production. Returning to the earlier
example, the capacity of the average bulldozer has
fluctuated over time as the product mix has changed.
As a result, the fixed price weight used for the sample
becomes unrepresentative. If the Soviet Union is
gradually moving toward higher capacity equipment,
the sample price becomes lower than the true average
in later years, higher in earlier years, and growth is
understated. Similar biases could occur in other
sectors as well.
The magnitude of this quantity series bias depends on
the nature of the product involved. Products that are
less complex, more homogeneous, and less vulnerable
to innovation, such as many industrial materials and
basic consumer goods, probably are less vulnerable to
this bias. Bias should be greatest in technically com-
plex, heterogeneous products such as machinery.
Some notion of the possible extent of the bias that
might arise in the machinery branch from using fixed
price weights can be obtained by drawing on a recent
CIA study." This study has collected for several types
" CIA, An Analysis of the Behavior of Soviet Machinery Prices,
1960-73, ER 79-10631, December 1979.
of machinery produced during 1960-73 a sample of
model numbers, prices, and physical specifications.
The purpose of this study was to determine what price
changes have occurred that cannot be explained by
changes in product quality or mix." A result of this
research was the derivation of price indexes for two
types of machinery represented by quantity series in
SPIOER�construction machinery and hoist-trans-
port equipment (cranes). By using these price series to
deflate the final demand component for these two
sectors in the 1959, 1966, and 1972 input-output
tables to 1972 producer prices, we derive series simi-
lar conceptually to two quantity indexes in SPIOER,
except that average unit prices are allowed to vary
due to changes in product mix. Comparison of the
growth rates of the series over the periods covered by
the input-output table should give a rough indication
in at least two quantity series of the scale of the bias
that results from using fixed price weights.
The results of this test shown in table 16 suggest that
the SPIOER quantity series do tend to understate
growth. Although the fixed price series grow more
rapidly in the 1960-66 period than the variable price
series, the downward bias becomes evident when
examining 1967-72 and both periods combined. Over-
all, the series with fixed price weights grow 1.1 and
0.4 percent less rapidly than the series with variable
price weights for hoist-transport machinery and con-
struction machinery, respectively.
We have attempted to limit the effect of this bias on
the machinery index by disaggregating the product
sample as much as possible. Trucks, cars, and buses
are disaggregated by model numbers, for example. By
increasing the level of product detail in this way, the
sample implicitly adjusts for changes in product as-
sortment and partly for quality improvements. This
approach cannot be followed for most sectors, howev-
er, because the necessary production and price data
are not available.
34 The cited study estimates regressions for each type of machinery
covered. By regressing prices on physical parameters and time, it is
possible to discover how prices have increased because of changes in
product specifications and inflation.
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Table 16
Average Annual Percent
Comparison of Growth of Output in Two Sectors
Using Fixed and Variable Price Weights
1960-66
1967-72
1960-72
Hoist transport machinery
Variable price weights a
8.4
9.5
8.9
Fixed price weights b
8.7
6.9
7.8
Construction machinery
Variable price weights a
8.9
8.8
8.8
Fixed price weights b
10.3
6.2
8.4
a These series are derived from the deflated final demand of the
respective sector from the input-output tables of 1959, 1966, and
1972. Because the CIA study has no price samples for 1966, the 1966
table in 1970 prices is used and then deflated to 1972 prices with the
derived indexes.
Deliveries to final demand in current prices are found in the
following sources:
1959�Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinsky, and Vladimir G.
Treml, Conversion of Soviet Input-Output Tables to Producers'
Prices: The 1959 Reconstructed Table, FER-No. 6 (Washington,
D.C.: US Department of Commerce, February 1975).
1966�Treml and Guilt, in Treml, Studies, pp. 197-281.
1972�Gallik, Guill, Kostinsky, and Treml, "The 1972 Input-
Output Table," pp. 423-471.
Prices: The price deflators are taken from CIA, An Analysis of the
Behavior of Soviet Machinery Prices, 1960-73.
b These series are derived from the SPIOER quantity series for these
two sectors.
Much more has been written about the distortions
afflicting both types of value series�official ruble
value series and GVO index series�the double-count-
ing and disguised price inflation alluded to earlier.
The effect of changes in double-counting is relatively
easy to understand; the inflationary bias perhaps
requires more discussion.
Enterprise managers find it advantageous to boost
prices to meet their performance targets. But it is
difficult for managers to raise prices on standardized
products since prices are controlled by the govern-
ment. An exception is made, however, if the item can
be considered a new product." Then an enterprise can
charge a new-product price, which is deliberately set
higher than the price of the old product to recapture
research and development costs of the new product.
Later the temporary new-product price gives way for
" The new-product pricing phenomenon has been widely discussed
in the literature. In particular see Abraham S. Becker, Ruble Price
Levels; Joseph S. Berliner, The Innovation Decision in Soviet
Industry; Padma Desai, "On Reconstructing Price, Output and
Value-Added Indexes in Postwar Soviet Industry and Its
Branches," pp. 55-77; Gregory Grossman, "Price Control, Incen-
tives and Innovation in the Soviet Economy," Alan Abouchar, ed.,
The Socialist Price Mechanism (Durham, N. C.: Duke University
Press, 1977); and CIA, An Analysis of the Behavior of Soviet
Machinery Prices, 1960-73.
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a permanent price. Because innovation is risky given
the incentives confronting the Soviet manager, specifi-
cations of old products often change only slightly.
This is enough, however, to allow him to charge a
substantially higher price for this "new" product and
to lead him to halt production of the older and
cheaper model. Purchasers have little choice but to
accept the more expensive item. As a consequence,
value of production has increased more than could be
justified by the degree of product change.
An inflationary bias is also introduced into the value
series by the way constant or, in Soviet terminology,
comparable prices (sopostavimye tseni) are set. For
items in production before the base year for the
comparable prices, the prices in effect in the base year
are used in the series. For products introduced subse-
quently, the first permanent price is the comparable
price. The output series therefore reflects a mixture of
constant and current prices; the presence of price
inflation will then bias the output index upward.
New-product pricing represents the serious measure-
ment problem in industries where products are hetero-
geneous, where value measures would provide the only
meaningful measure of output, and where many op-
portunities for innovation exist and product complex-
ity makes it difficult to distinguish between real and
cosmetic improvements. Although these features exist
to some degree in all industrial branches, they are
most characteristic of machinery and chemicals.
The study already referred to (An Analysis of the
Behavior of Soviet Machinery Prices, 1960-73), can
be used to gain some notion of the possible impact of
disguised inflation on the value series. One type of
machinery analyzed in that study is machine tools, for
which SPIOER relies on the official value series in
the Narkhoz. According to the value series, machine
tool output in 1970 was 2.33 times the 1960 level�an
average annual increase of 8.8 percent. The machin-
ery price study concludes, however, that machine tool
prices in 1970 were 28.7 percent above the 1960 level
after allowance for changes in product characteristics.
Deflating the value series by this price increase
suggests that output in 1970 was only 181 percent
above 1960 or that machine tool output increased at
an average rate of only 6.1 percent per year, 2.7
percentage points per year less than the value series
used by SPIOER. If the wholesale price index derived
in that paper based on a sample of several types of
machinery is representative of all of the value series
incorporated in SPIOER, the hidden price changes
incorporated in the value series and hence wrongly
counted as real growth, would be significant:
Implied Price Inflation Average Annual Percent
in Machinery
1961-66
1967-70
1971-73
2.7
5.7
�1.6
This would suggest that in the 1960s the value series
are upward biased and that at least in the early 1970s
the value series are downward biased. Over the entire
13-year period, the implicit rate of inflation in the
value series would average 2.6 percent per year.
Not all value series are subject to a large upward bias
arising from price inflation. In some of the rapidly
developing industries like precision instruments and
electronics, prices have been reduced repeatedly to
prevent the excessive accumulation of profits. Because
those industries are in a relatively early phase of
development, expansion of output generates substan-
tial economies of scale and cost savings. In such cases
the amount of disguised inflation would be much
smaller than in more developed branches that are also
represented by value series.
The relative importance of this kind of sample bias in
the branch indexes can be determined from the
composition of the sample in each branch. Six of the
branch indexes are completely based upon quantity
series. Distortions in the value series reported by the
CSA could carry over to the synthetic indexes for the
wood, pulp, and paper industry, light industry, chemi-
cals, and machinery. The tabulation below indicates
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that machinery is the branch most affected by the
value series. The value series are used to measure
changes in only about one-fifth of industrial
production.
Because quantity series and value series are not evenly
distributed among the branches, indexes dominated
by value series suffer most from the distortion caused
by disguised inflation.
Shares in 1970 of Value Added Percent
Branch
Quantity Value
Series Series
Chemicals and petrochemicals 95
Wood, pulp, and paper 85
Light industry 65
5
15
35
Machinery
Producer durables 41 59
Consumer durables 27 73
The Importance of Disguised Inflation. Considerable
attention has been devoted to the possibility of hidden
inflation in the value series included in the SPIOER
samples. The major industrial branches in which
value series are used to measure production are listed
in table 17. The branch samples are divided into
quantity or official value series, and two separate
indexes are calculated for each branch�one for prod-
ucts reported in physical units and one for products
reported by value. (Value-added weights are used to
aggregate individual series.) The table compares the
growth rates for these components of the branch
indexes in which value series are important.
The value series generally grow substantially faster
than the physical series. This does not necessarily
mean that the differences are caused by disguised
inflation of the value series. For example, in the wood,
pulp, and paper industry the rapidly growing value
series is furniture. While new-product pricing un-
doubtedly is a problem in the furniture industry,
furniture output has been a stellar performer in a
branch that otherwise is nearly stagnant. Similarly, it
is not surprising that sewn goods�measured in
rubles�is one of the fastest growing components of
light industry; in later phases of development the
processing of fabrics becomes more important than
the manufacture of the fabrics themselves.
The results for consumer durables are surprising.
Value series comprise a larger share of the sample
than in any other part of SPIOER; ironically, the
value series increase more rapidly than the quantity
series only in three of the six periods. During the
entire 29-year period, the value series increased only
0.9 percentage points per year faster. The Producer
durables comparison is more troublesome. Between
1950 and 1979 the value series in the producer
durables sample increased on average nearly 4 per-
centage points faster than the quantity subsample�
suggesting a substantial upward bias in the official
value series.
Not all of the discrepancy in the machinery series can
be attributed to index distortions, however. The quan-
tity series do include machinery sectors that are
actually growing more slowly than sectors represented
by value series. For example, transport machinery�a
quantity series�traditionally grows slowly once a
nation's transportation infrastructure is in place, and
instruments and computers�a value series�has been
a fast growing sector since 1960. We can test this
hypothesis in a rough way. The Soviets publish GVO
indexes for subgroups of machinery at a level of detail
that is unavailable in most of the other industrial
branches. The official GVO machinery branch
indexes for the years 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, and
1980 were used to estimate subsample growth based
strictly on official GVO data. These component in-
dexes were then classified according to whether they
were predominantly represented by quantity or value
series in the SPIOER machinery sample. According
to the rates of growth shown in table 18, the branch
subsample represented by quantity series is growing
about 2 percentage points less rapidly than the sub-
sample described by value series. We conclude, there-
fore, that the machinery represented by quantity data
are less dynamic machinery sectors.
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Table 17
Comparison of Growth of Quantity and
Value Series Within Branches of Industry
Average Annual Percent
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-79
Wood, pulp, and paper
Quantity series
7.0
5.0
1.8
1.9
1.3
-2.6
Official value series
18.1
17.8
10.4
9.1
8.8
4.3
Chemicals and petrochemicals
Quantity series
11.4
10.2
11.8
8.9
8.4
3.3
Official value series
20.8
19.4
16.1
9.7
11.7
6.0
Light industry
Quantity series
9.3
5.9
3.2
4.9
2.3
1.7
Official value series
13.4
7.6
1.2
12.2
3.5
4.5
Consumer durables
Quantity series
17.7
11.5
9.4
7.6
14.8
2.1
Official value series
17.7
9.9
9.7
12.9
10.5
8.4
Producer durables
Quantity series
10.8
12.2
6.8
5.5
5.1
2.2
Official value series
12.9
12.5
10.9
10.0
11.0
8.4
Whatever the reason, a wide disparity in growth rates
clearly exists between the two types of subsamples in
the producer durables index. How the underlying
biases might affect the overall machinery index and
the industrial index can only be judged by some fairly
arbitrary sensitivity testing (table 19).
Six different assumptions regarding the bias in the
producer durables sample are tested. In each case, we
assume that the SPIOER growth rates are biased for
specific reasons and reestimate growth taking into
account the assumed adjustments. The cases tested
allow for the downward biases of the quantity series,
the upward biases of the value series, and combina-
tions of both. The alternative assumptions are:
I. Real growth of the value series is the same as that
of the quantity sample.
2. Real growth of the value series is 2 percentage
points higher than that of the quantity series.
3. Real growth of the quantity series is 1 percentage
point higher than the measured rate and equals the
real growth of the value series.
4. Inflation in the value series is 3 percent per year.
5. The downward bias in the quantity series is 1
percentage point per year, and the upward bias in
value series is 3 percentage points per year.
6. The downward bias in the quantity series is 1
percentage point per year, and real growth in the
value series is 2 percentage points per year higher
than the adjusted growth in the quantity series.
The impact of possible biases in the producer durables
sample weakens considerably at higher levels of ag-
gregation. The largest discrepancy between SPIOER
growth and growth of hybrid indexes (1951-79) is 2.2
percentage points for producer durables, 1.2 percent-
age points for machinery, and just 0.3 percentage
point for total industry. Moreover, in this case ma-
chinery growth is unrealistically low compared with
that in other industrial sectors. Assumptions that give
a more realistic machinery growth suggest that the
error introduced into SPIOER indexes by any bias in
the machinery index is no larger than half that in the
worst case.
216
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Table 18
Growth of Machinery Samples Estimated From Official GVO Data
Average Annual Percent
1976-80
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
Quantity series subsample a
11.3
9.1
8.3
5.0
Electrotechnical industry
10.1
8.4
6.7
5.6
Energy machinebuilding
13.7
9.7
8.4
4.5
Metallurgical, mining, and
other machinery
9.5
6.8
7.1
3.2
Hoist transport machinery
15.1
8.4
7.4
4.1
Construction machinery
13.1
11.3
9.0
4.4
4.1
7.7
Railroad machinery
8.7
7.3
6.0
Automotive machinery
11.1
12.5
13.0
Value series subsample a
11.4
'1.4
10.8
7.8
Machine tools
12.9
9.7
10.0
8.1
Instruments
16.2
17.8
18.5
14.0
6.8
7.3
5.1
Chemical machinery
16.1
10.3
9.2
Logging, pulp, and paper machinery
11.6
15.2
10.8
Light industry and food machinery
10.2
8.6
8.9
Metallic items
8.2
11.6
8.9
5.0
5.5
6.1
Metallic structurals
7.6
10.7
9.9
Machinery repair
11.4
9.3
8.7
Mixed quantity and value subsample
Tractors and Agricultural machinery
13.3
8.7
11.2
6.1
a Because of difficulties in deriving weights, a simple average of the
indexes is used to aggregate the subbranch elements. The average
annual rates of growth are computed from the average indexes.
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Table 19
Average Annual Percent
Growth of Soviet Industry Under Different Assumptions of Bias
in the SPIDER Producer Durables Sample
SPIOER
Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 4
Case 5
Case 6
Producer durables
1951-55
11.8
10.8
11.8
11.8
10.3
10.6
13.1
1956-60
12.4
12.2
13.3
13.2
10.7
11.0
14.3
1961-65
8.9
6.8
7.9
7.8
7.4
7.9
9.0
1966-70
7.8
5.5
6.6
6.5
6.3
6.8
7.7
1971-75
8.6
5.1
6.3
6.1
6.8
7.2
7.4
1976-79
6.3
2.2
3.4
3.2
3.3
4.6
4.4
1951-79
9.4
7.2
8.3
8.2
7.7
8.1
9.4
Total machinery
1951-55
9.6
9.4
9.7
9.7
9.1
9.2
10.1
1956-60
7.9
8.3
8.6
8.6
7.3
7.4
8.8
1961-65
7.4
6.2
6.8
6.8
6.6
6.8
7.5
1966-70
6.9
5.4
6.2
6.1
6.0
6.3
6.9
1971-75
7.9
5.6
6.1
6.2
6.7
7.0
7.1
1976-79
5.6
2.8
3.6
3.5
4.1
4.4
4.3
1951-79
7.6
6.4
7.0
6.9
6.7
6.9
7.5
Total industry
1951-55
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.0
10.1
10.4
1956-60
8.3
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.3
8.3
10.5
1961-65
6.6
6.6
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.9
5.5
1966-70
6.3
5.9
6.1
6.1
6.0
6.1
6.3
1971-75
5.9
5.7
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
1976-79
3.6
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.4
1951-79
6.9
6.7
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.2
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Appendix A
Table A-1
The SPIOER Sample:
Products, Units, and Key Sources
Ferrous metals branch
Ferrous ores sector
Manganese ore
Tons Narkhoz
Iron ore
Tons Narkhoz
Ferrous metals sector
Cast iron
Tons Narkhoz
Rails and rail accessories
Tons Narkhoz
Wire rod
Tons Narkhoz
Plain wire
Tons Narkhoz
Seamless pipe and tube
Tons Narkhoz
Welded pipe and tube
Tons Narkhoz
Heavy section pipe and tube
Tons Narkhoz
Light section pipe and tube
Tons Narkhoz
Steel plate
Tons Narkhoz
Hot rolled sheet
Tons Narkhoz
Cold rolled sheet
Electrical sheet
Tons
Tons
Narkhoz
Narkhoz
Tinplate
Tons Narkhoz
Galvanized sheet
Tons Narkhoz
Products for reprocessing
Tons Narkhoz
Coke products sector
Coke products (coking coal used as proxy)
Tons Narkhoz
Refractory materials sector
Fire clay
Dinas
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Magnesite and chrome magnesite items
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Magnesite powder/metallurgical
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Nonferrous metals branch
Nonferrous metals sector
Copper
Tons Estimate
Lead
Tons Estimate
Zinc
Tons Estimate
Tin
Tons Estimate
Aluminum
Tons Estimate
Magnesium
Tons Estimate
Titanium
Tons Estimate
Nickel
Tons Estimate
Antimony
Tons Estimate
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Table A-1 (continued)
The SPIOER Sample:
Products, Units, and Key Sources
Mercury
Ton Estimate
Cadmium
Tons Estimate
Tungsten (60%w03)
Tons Estimate
Molybdenum
Tons Estimate
Fuels branch
Coal sector
Coking coal
Tons Narkhoz
Lignite
Tons Narkhoz
Noncoking hard coal
Tons Narkhoz
Oil extraction sector
Oil (including gas condensate)
Tons Narkhoz
Oil refining sector
Refined products
Tons Estimate
Gas sector
Natural gas from wells
Cubic meter Narkhoz, Journals,
Estimate
Asociated natural gas
Cubic meter Narkhoz, Journals,
Estimate
Peat sector
Peat
Tons of
standard fuel
Narkhoz
Oil shales sector
Oil shale
Tons of
standard fuel
Narkhoz
Electric power branch
Electric power sector
Electric power distributed from busbars
Kilowatt-hours Narkhoz
Machinery branch
Energy and power machinery sector
Steam boilers (high capacity)
Steam boilers (medium capacity)
Steam boilers (low capacity)
Tons/hours Narkhoz, Estimate
Tons/hours Narkhoz, Estimate
Tons/hours Estimate
Steam and gas turbines
Kilowatt Narkhoz, Estimate
Hydraulic turbines
Kilowatt Narkhoz, Estimate
Electrotechnical machinery and equipment sector
Generators (steam and gas turbines) Kilowatt Narkhoz, Estimate
Generators hydraulic turbines Kilowatt Narkhoz, Estimate
Electric motors over 100 kilowatt Kilowatt Narkhoz
Power transformers Kilowatt-amps
Electric bulbs
Units Narkhoz
Machine tools sector
Metal cutting machine tools
Rubles Narkhoz
Forge presses sector
Forge press machine tools
Rubles Narkhoz
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Table A-1 (continued)
Precision instruments sector
Instruments of time
Rubles Narkhoz
Other instruments and computers
Rubles Narkhoz
Metallurgical and mining machinery and equipment sector
Metallurgy machinery and equipment except rolling mills
Rolling mill equipment
Coal combines
Tons Narkhoz
Tons Narkhoz
Units Narkhoz
Coal cutting machines
Units Narkhoz
Mine loading machines
Units Narkhoz
Electric mine locomotives
Units Narkhoz
Petroleum equipment/refinery
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Deep-well pumps Units Narkhoz
Turbodrills Units Narkhoz
Pumps and compressors sector
Refrigerators
Units Narkhoz
Chemical equipment
Rubles Narkhoz
Log and paper machinery and equipment sector
Log and paper machinery and equipment
Light-industry machinery and equipment sector
Light-industry machinery and equipment
Food-industry machinery and equipment sector
Index Narkhoz
Rubles Narkhoz
Food-industry machinery and equipment
Rubles Narkhoz
Printing machinery and equipment sector
Printing-industry machinery and equipment
Rubles Narkhoz
Hoist-transport equipment sector
Railroad cranes
Units Narkhoz
Truck cranes
Units Narkhoz
Tower cranes. Units Narkhoz
Pneumatic tire cranes Units Narkhoz
Electric bridge cranes Units Narkhoz
Elevators
Units Narkhoz
Construction machinery and equipment sector
Excavators/multibucket
0.15- to 0.20-cubic-meter single-bucket excavators
Units Narkhoz, Estimate
Units Narkhoz, Estimate
0.25- to 0.30-cubic-meter single-bucket excavators
0.35- to 0.80-cubic-meter single-bucket excavators
Units
Units
Narkhoz, Estimate
Narkhoz, Estimate
1- to I.25-cubic-meter single-bucket excavators
Units Narkhoz, Estimate
1.4- to 2.5-cubic-meter single-bucket excavators
Units Narkhoz, Estimate
3- to 8-cubic-meter single-bucket excavators
10 and more single-bucket excavators
Units
Units
Narkhoz, Estimate
Narkhoz, Estimate
Bulldozers
Units Narkhoz
Scrapers
Units Narkhoz
Motor graders
Units Narkhoz
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Table A-1 (continued)
The SPIOER Sample:
Products, Units, and Key Sources
Transportation, machinery and equipment sector
Reefers, mainline freight
Box cars, mainline freight
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Flat cars, mainline freight
Gondola cars, mainline freight
Tank cars, mainline freight
Cement cars, mainline freight
Units
Units
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Narkhoz
Estimate
TE-1 diesel locomotives
TE-2 diesel locomotives
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
TE-3, -7, -10, -30 electric diesel
TE-4 diesel locomotives
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
TE-50,TEP-60, 1E-40 electric diesel
Units Estimate
TGP-50,TG-102, I E-106 diesel hydraulic
G-1 /GT-101/ gas turbines
VL-22m, direct current
Units
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Estimate
VL-8, -10, T-8 direct current
Units Estimate
VL-23 electric locomotives
Units Estimate
N-0 electric locomotives
Units Estimate
N-8 electric locomotives
Units Estimate
N-60 electric locomotives
VL alternating current
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
L steam locomotives
Units Estimate
Sum steam locomotives
Units Estimate
SO steam locomotives
Units Estimate
LV steam locomotives
Units Estimate
P 36 steam locomotives
Units Estimate
Railroad passenger cars
Units Narkhoz
Trolley cars
Units Narkhoz
Subway cars
Units Narkhoz
Civilian shipbuilding Units Estimate by type
Civilian aircraft Units Estimate by type
Automobiles sector
Motorcycles
Units Narkhoz, Estimate
Moped
Units Narkhoz, Estimate
Bicycles
Units Narkhoz, Estimate
Motor scooters
Units Narkhoz, Estimate
Consumer autos
Units Estimate
Consumer auto prices
Index Estimate
Cars
Moslcvich-400 sedan Units
Moslcvich cabriolet model
Moslcvich station wagon
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Moslcvich 2136, 2138, 2140, IZH-2125
Units Estimate
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Table A-1 (continued)
Moskvich 423 and 424
Units Estimate
Zil limousine
Units Estimate
Zim sedan
Units Estimate
Gaz-67 jeep
Units Estimate
Uaz-469 jeeps
Units Estimate
Pobeda
Units Estimate
Gaz-21, 24/volga
Units Estimate
Zaz-965, 966, 968, 968a
Gaz-13,14/chayka
Units Estimate
Units Estimate
Vaz-2103, 2102, 2106, NIVA-2121
Trucks
Units Estimate
Vaz-21011
Units Estimate
Gaz-51
Units Estimate
Gaz-63
Units Estimate
Gaz-53f, 53a, 66, 52 Units
Gaz-93 Units
Estimate
Estimate
Zit-157,157k
Units Estimate
Zit-164,164a Units Estimate
Zi1-150 Units Estimate
Zit-151
Units Estimate
Zi1-585
Units Estimate
Ural zis-335, 355m, 356, 358, 375, 37
Units Estimate
Zi1-130, 131
Units Estimate
Yaaz-200, 210, 214, 219, 221, 22
Kraz-214, 219, 221, 222, 255, 257
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Maz-200, 205
Maz-500-504a, 509, 514, 516
Units Estimate
Units Estimate
Maz-525
Units Estimate
Belaz-528, 529, 530, 531, 540, 548, 54
Moaz-542, 546, 522
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Trucks (continued)
Kaz-120
Units Estimate
Kaz-585 and B, 585 and V
Units Estimate
Kaz-602, 606, 608, 608B
Units Estimate
Kaz-600 and A, 600B and V
Gaz-AA
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Ural-Zi1-5/353, 355M and 356
Moskvich-430, 432
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Uaz-450, 451, 452
Kamaz-5320, 5410
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Abz-50 and miscellaneous
Units Estimate
Kaz-120
Units Estimate
Kaz-585 and B, 585 and V
Units Estimate
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Table A-1 (continued)
The SPIOER Sample:
Products, Units, and Key Sources
Kaz-602, 606, 608, 608B
Units Estimate
Kaz-600 and A, 600B and V
Gaz-AA
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Ural-Zil-5/353, 355M and 356
Units Estimate
Moskvich-430, 432
Units Estimate
Uaz-450, 451, 452
Kamaz-5320, 5410
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Abz-50 and miscellaneous
Units Estimate
Buses
Kavz-651, 685
Units Estimate
Paz-651, 652, 652B, 672
Zil-115, 118, 127, 155, 158
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Ta-6
Units Estimate
Laz-695, 695E
Laz-698, 699, 699A, 697
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Raf-251, 976, 977V, 977D
Liaz-677
Units
Units
Estimate
Estimate
Trolley buses
Units Estimate
Automotive spare parts
Rubles Estimate
Agricultural machinery and equipment sector
Agricultural machinery
Tracklaying tractors
Rubles
Units
Narkhoz
Estimate by model
Wheeled tractors
Other machinery sector
Units Estimate by model
Tovari series
Rubles Narkhoz
Household chemicals deduction
Index Narkhoz
Furniture deduction
Rubles Narkhoz
Sanitary engineering products sector
Bath water heaters Units Narkhoz, Estimate
Enameled iron bathtubs Units Narkhoz, Estimate
Heating boilers Units Narkhoz, Estimate
Heating radiators
Units Narkhoz, Estimate
Sewer pipe and fittings Standard kilometer Narkhoz, Estimate
Other metalwares sector
Other metalwares
Index Narkhoz
Metallic structurals sector
Metal structurals
Index Narkhoz
Machinery repair sector
Machinery repair
Index Narkhoz
Chemicals and petrochemicals branch
Mineral chemicals sector
Mineral chemicals
Index Narkhoz
Basic chemicals sector
224
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Table A-1 (continued)
Nitrogen fertilizer
Tons
Narkhoz
Phosphorite fertilizer
Tons
Narkhoz
Phosphorous fertilizer
Tons Narkhoz
Potassium fertilizer
Tons Narkhoz
Sulfuric acid
Tons Narkhoz
Soda ash (95 percent)
Caustic soda
Tons Narkhoz
Tons Narkhoz
Anilyne dye products sector
Synthetic dyes
Tons CMEA Handbook
Synthetic resins and plastics sector
Plastics and resins
Tons Narkhoz
Synthetic fibers sector
Chemical fibers and knits
Tons Narkhoz
Organic synthetic products sector
Ethyl alcohol (nonfood based)
Gallon Estimate
Synthetic ammonia
Benzol
Tons CMEA Handbook
Tons CMEA Handbook
Chlorine
Tons Estimate
Phenol
Tons CMEA Handbook
Paints and lacquers sector
Dry zinc whites
Tons Estimate
Enamels and primers
Tons Estimate
Litharge and red lead
Tons Estimate
Natural drying oil
Tons Estimate
Nitrocellulose varnish and solvents
Tons Estimate
Oil varnishes and siccatives
Tons Estimate
Oksol drying oil
Rubber products sector
Tons Estimate
Motor vehicle tires
Units Narkhoz
Synthetic rubber sector
Synthetic rubber
Wood, pulp, and paper products branch
Tons Narkhoz
Logging sector
F u wood
Industrial logs
Cubic meter Narkhoz
Cubic meter Narkhoz
Sawing and woodworking sector
Plywood
Cubic meter Narkhoz
Lumber
Cubic meter Narkhoz
Furniture sector
Furniture
rubles Narkhoz
Pulp and paper sector
Newsprint
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Wrapping and packing
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
225
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Table A-1 (continued)
The SPIOER Sample:
Products, Units, and Key Sources
Printing
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Writing paper
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Sacking
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Offset printing
Cover paper
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Winding
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Deep printing
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Lithographic
Cartographic
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Cable insulation
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Capacitor
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Waxing paper
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Other paper products
Paperboard
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Wood chemicals sector
Oleoresin and rosin
Tons Estimate
Construction materials branch
Cement sector
Portland cement�homogeneous
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Portland cement�mix adjustment
Index Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Slag portland cement
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Slag cement�mix adjustment
Index Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Pozzolana portland cement
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Pozzolana cement�mix adjustment
Index Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Decorative cement
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Tamponage cement
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Unallocated cement
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Portland cement�Mark 200
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Portland cement�Mark 300
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Portland cement�Mark 400
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Portland cement�Mark 500
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Portland cement�Mark 600
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
226
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Table A-1 (continued)
Marked, nonportland cement
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Nonportland�mix adjustment
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Unmarked cement
Tons Journals, Narkhoz,
Estimate
Concrete sector
Precast concrete
Cubic meter Estimate, Narkhoz
Prestressed concrete
Cubic meter Narkhoz
Wall materials sector
Roofing tile
Square meter Narkhoz
Construction brick
Standard unit Narkhoz
Dimension and fieldstone
Standard unit Narkhoz
Concrete and silicate wall blocks
Standard unit Narkhoz, Estimate
Other wall materials
Standard unit Narkhoz, Estimate
Asbestos cement sector
Asbestos cement shingle
Standard unit Narkhoz
Asbestos cement pipe
Standard kilometer Estimate, Republic Narkhoz
Roofing material sector
Soft roofing
Square meter Narkhoz
Construction ceramics sector
Ceramic tiles-facing and floors
Square meter Narkhoz, Estimate
Ceramic sewer pipe
Tons Estimate, Journals
Other materials for construction sector
Construction lime
Tons Estimate, Republic Narkhoz
Gypsum
Tons Estimate, Republic Narkhoz
Mineral wool insulation
Cubic meter Journals, Estimate, Repub-
lic Narkhoz
Rock products
Cubic meter Narkhoz
Glass and porcelain sector
Window glass
Square meter Narkhoz
Polished glass
Square meter Journals, Estimate
Light-industry branch
Cotton fabric sector
Cotton cloth
Square meter Narkhoz
Silk fabric sector
Silk cloth
Square meter Narkhoz
Wool fabric sector
Wool cloth
Carpeting
Square meter Narkhoz
Square meter Narkhoz
Linen fabric sector
Linen cloth
Square meter Narkhoz
Hosiery and knitwear sector
Knit outerwear
Pieces Narkhoz
227
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Table A-1 (continued)
The SPIOER Sample:
Products, Units, and Key Sources
Knit underwear
Pieces Narkhoz
Hosiery
Pairs Narkhoz
Sewn goods sector
Sewn goods
Rubles Narkhoz
Other light-industry sector
Leather footwear
Pairs Narkhoz
Rubber footwear
Pairs Narkhoz
Felt footwear
Pairs Narkhoz
Processed food branch
Fish products sector
Canned fish
Standard Can Narkhoz
Gross fish
Tons Narkhoz
Meat products sector
Mutton
Tons Narkhoz
Pork
Tons Narkhoz
Beef and veal
Poultry
Tons
Tons
Narkhoz
Narkhoz
Other meat
Tons Narkhoz
Dairy products sector
Canned milk
Standard Can Narkhoz
Whole milk
Tons Narkhoz
Butter
Tons Narkhoz
Cheese
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Sugar sector
Refined sugar
Net granular sugar
Tons
Tons
Narkhoz
Narkhoz, Estimate
228
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Table A-1 (continued)
Flour and cereal sector
Macaroni products
Tons Narkhoz
Flour
Tons Narkhoz
Flour quality
Bread products sector
Index Estimate
Bread products
Confectionary products sector
Tons Estimate
Confectionary goods
Tons
Narkhoz
Vegetable oils sector
Net vegetable oil
Tons Narkhoz, Estimate
Margarine products
Tons Narkhoz
Fruit and vegetable products sector
Canned juice
Standard can Narkhoz
Canned fruits
Standard can Narkhoz
Canned meat
Standard can Narkhoz
Canned vegetables
Standard can Narkhoz
Canned tomatoes
Standard can Narkhoz
Other canned goods
Standard can Narkhoz
Other food sector
Soap
Tons Narkhoz
Champagne
Bottles Estimate
Vodka and vodka products
Dekaliter Estimate, Republic
Handbooks
Beer
Cigarettes
Dekaliter Narkhoz
100 item CMEA Handbook
Wine
Dekaliter Narkhoz, Estimate
229
93-892 0 - 82 - 16
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Table A-2
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals
Ferrous Metals
Nonferrous Metals
Ferrous Ores
Ferrous Metals
Coke Products
Refractory
1950
23.35
21.00
31.37
42.80
19.01
1951
26.93
23.84
33.10
46.23
21.54
1952
30.84
27.28
35.51
51.06
24.24
1953
34.42
29.90
37.71
55.17
27.03
1954
36.45
32.79
42.96
59.03
29.58
1955
40.09
36.22
47.17
63.13
34.72
1956
43.21
39.03
50.34
66.08
36.81
1957
46.38
41.24
53.12
68.92
38.88
1958
48.75
44.29
57.28
71.31
41.04
1959
51.34
48.71
61.16
76.54
44.38
1960
57.25
52.68
66.86
81.70
48.37
1961
62.73
57.42
68.22
85.65
52.42
1962
68.15
61.94
71.27
89.52
57.07
1963
72.80
65.75
77.10
91.19
61.53
1964
77.28
71.04
81.07
93.88
65.21
1965
81.47
76.05
84.32
95.98
69.88
1966
84.77
81.56
86.49
98.92
76.69
1967
87.51
87.03
89.57
100.12
83.50
1968
90.30
91.46
93.74
100.46
90.17
1969
94.57
94.48
97.85
99.42
94.66
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
103.42
104.09
102.67
100.66
107.02
1972
106.54
108.01
103.14
100.38
112.72
1973
110.83
112.59
105.24
102.58
119.56
1974
114.62
117.93
106.51
104.65
126.92
1975
119.56
123.39
109.85
106.64
132.89
1976
122.74
126.73
112.99
108.05
137.08
1977
123.03
127.93
113.07
107.28
141.26
1978
125.74
131.30
110.43
105.69
145.90
1979
125.63
131.35
110.92
106.33
150.22
230
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Table A-2 (continued)
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Fuels and Electric Power
Fuels
Electric Power
Coal
Oil
Extraction
Oil
Refining
Gas
Peat
Oil
Shales
1950
39.47
10.73
13.32
2.91
83.62
14.77
12.48
1951
42.75
11.97
14.91
3.16
92.09
18.18
14.20
1952
45.55
13.40
16.69
3.23
86.44
20.45
16.25
1953
48.08
14.95
18.68
3.47
89.27
23.86
18.33
1954
52.37
16.79
21.09
3.79
104.52
27.27
20.49
1955
58.97
20.05
23.55
4.54
117.51
37.50
23.10
1956
64.56
23.74
28.63
6.10
103.95
39.77
26.03
1957
69.57
27.86
32.95
9.39
127.12
42.05
28.51 -
1958
74.62
32.07
36.24
14.19
119.21
51.14
32.00
1959
76.88
36.70
40.68
17.88
129.94
52.27
35.97
1960
78.83
41.88
45.16
22.89
115.25
54.55
39.65
1961
78.91
47.04
49.41
29.80
110.17
59.09
44.46
1962
80.91
52.75
55.23
37.14
72.88
65.91
50.16
1963
83.38
58.37
60.79
45.38
122.60
73.86
55.80
1964
86.70
63.34
64.43
54.85
125.42
80.68
62.03
1965
90.52
68.80
68.83
64.50
96.05
84.09
68.26
1966
92.35
75.10
74.11
72.22
137.85
85.23
73.48
1967
94.49
81.60
80.89
1954.
126.55
85.23
79.13
1968
95.26
87.57
86.44
85.43
103.39
86.36
86.09
1969
97.74
93.01
92.11
91.50
94.35
90.91
92.90
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
102.54
106.81
106.78
107.30
96.61
104.55
108.12
1972
104.73
113.43
115.38
111.84
111.30
113.64
115.80
1973
106.87
121.53
124.11
119.38
108.47
117.05
123.62
1974
109.46
130.00
133.23
131.60
75.71
121.59
131.88
1975
112.31
139.02
141.16
146.14
104.52
122.73
140.58
1976
114.33
147.20
144.73
162.14
63.84
125.00
150.29
1977
115.77
154.60
152.66
174.80
79.10
129.55
155.65
1978
115.76
161.89
161.78
188.03
51.98
131.82
162.90
1979
115.32
165.87
168.52
205.41
76.84
134.09
167.68
231
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Table A-2 (continued)
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Machinery
Energy and Power Electrotechnical
Machinery Machinery and
Equipment
Machine
Tools
Forge
Presses
Precision
Instruments
Metallurgical and
Mining Machinery
and Equipment
1950
16.97
14.42
9.68
6.46
2.62
42.53
1951
20.57
17.43
11.56
8.62
3.34
44.58
1952
26.51
18.93
13.80
11.46
4.24
51.95
1953
35.04
20.96
16.48
15.24
5.38
59.12
1954
39.87
22.16
19.68
20.28
6.80
57.02
1955
46.71
25.32
23.52
27.40
8.71
57.22
1956
47.51
28.72
26.50
31.22
11.24
60.28
1957
44.76
32.64
29.87
35.57
14.50
62.75
1958
48.38
35.59
33.66
40.53
18.71
69.93
1959
52.33
41.74
37.94
46.18
22.28
76.72
1960
62.45
47.57
42.84
52.44
26.51
80.61
1961
72.90
53.81
49.80
57.32
30.75
78.34
1962
81.95
61.49
53.58
59.76
35.71
86.35
1963
82.46
67.24
56.95
71.14
40.35
85.21
1964
91.14
71.37
62.07
65.45
42.33
88.08
1965
97.45
76.73
65.24
65.45
46.14
89.24
1966
106.12
79.01
72.80
71.54
53.67
92.91
1967
106.64
86.09
80.78
78.86
61.56
99.71
1968
112.91
90.23
88.04
87.40
71.19
103.32
1969
104.93
94.73
93.35
94.31
83.59
101.60
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
99.63
110.96
107.67
110.98
114.35
103.53
1972
93.00
116.81
116.56
120.73
135.76
104.59
1973
97.55
121.67
129.14
133.74
162.58
108.58
1974
107.81
123.99
141.82
150.81
195.84
109.62
1975
117.86
130.74
152.66
161.79
229.35
109.64
1976
115.35
131.53
164.34
184.84
261.79
119.35
1977
113.07
134.93
181.08
198.07
305.93
121.70
1978
113.44
136.84
197.48
216.43
355.52
121.93
1979
117.75
136.94
207.14
231.80
410.37
121.41
232
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Table A-2 (continued)
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Machinery
Food Industry
Machinery and
Equipment
Printing
Machinery and
Equipment
Hoist Transport
Equipment
Equipment
Pumps and
Compressors
Log and Paper
Machinery and
Equipment
Light Industry
Machinery and
Equipment
1950
3.24
10.11
33.67
28.52
19.01
19.79
1951
4.44
11.25
34.65
29.51
19.17
24.53
1952
5.93
12.50
35.67
30.52
13.08
27.28
33.60
1953
8.01
13.90
36.91
31.77
13.19
1954
9.66
15.46
38.35
33.20
17.24
36.70
1955
11.63
17.19
40.21
35.09
22.24
39.28
36.98
1956
13.32
19.11
41.88
36.74
28.29
1957
16.34
21.25
43.70
38.58
32.96
43.50
1958
18.38
23.63
45.86
38.12
41.57
51.33
1959
27.16
26.70
48.56
42.48
48.53
42.46
1960
34.88
29.53
51.63
47.33
55.50
45.54
1961
38.99
31.42
55.16
49.92
58.00
51.76
1962
43.55
37.09
59.26
52.66
60.71
58.39
1963
47.28
40.16
63.35
55.55
59.13
62.58
1964
56.74
45.12
61.86
58.59
64.98
65.32
1965
66.50
51.03
65.35
64.83
70.04
70.95
1966
76.07
62.32
75.58
71.38
78.12
76.04
1967
81.98
71.95
87.44
81.10
83.73
82.19
1968
88.78
83.44
91.30
86.05
89.29
86.02
1969
95.40
92.28
95.35
95.35
96.63
90.74
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
112.21
113.20
106.51
102.91
102.18
108.31
1972
121.84
124.24
115.81
112.79
106.94
113.23
1973
134.13
136.09
130.23
122.09
109.52
118.16
1974
144.05
146.80
146.28
135.17
120.83
124.83
1975
155.97
161.59
160.70
145.64
120.44
126.50
1976
166.77
178.79
168.56
155.65
128.42
131.39
1977
174.47
193.85
181.29
165.02
136.62
132.82
1978
184.40
206.13
192.67
169.86
146.65
136.94
1979
188.76
220.16
200.53
175.03
156.69
139.27
233
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Table A-2 (continued)
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Machinery
Construction Transportation Automobiles
Machinery Machinery
and and
Equipment Equipment
Agricultural
Machinery
and
Equipment
Other
Machinery
Sanitary
Engineering
Products
Other
Metalwares
Metallic
Structurals
Machinery
Repair
1950
19.92
19.29
13.59
15.12
8.29
13.18
12.25
13.42
12.02
1951
21.02
13.96
13.45
15.07
7.84
16.46
13.89
15.13
13.45
1952
21.62
11.86
14.71
15.77
10.32
19.17
15.57
16.86
15.06
1953
23.62
18.26
17.63
17.12
13.77
21.52
17.44
18.77
16.87
1954
24.80
25.62
21.63
20.60
17.57
23.60
19.62
20.99
18.88
1955
25.67
31.45
24.94
26.40
23.67
25.92
22.51
23.94
21.14
1956
30.14
42.98
27.95
33.85
25.20
29.36
24.77
26.19
23.67
1957
35.70
67.47
31.77
42.99
26.12
33.85
27.13
28.52
26.51
1958
39.53
94.16
36.04
39.46
26.27
39.09
29.88
31.22
29.68
1959
40.75
102.36
40.06
34.81
28.87
46.22
34.06
35.27
33.53
1960
47.01
82.70
41.67
40.14
31.65
53.94
37.05
41.83
37.31
1961
54.75
67.09
44.97
49.28
35.40
60.60
41.13
43.92
41.25
1962
59.21
79.85
48.98
57.60
38.26
66.99
46.31
46.85
46.89
1963
62.81
74.71
52.57
66.77
41.39
73.70
50.39
50.62
52.23
1964
70.95
80.94
57.46
69.75
46.12
78.13
54.09
55.22
58.76
1965
75.40
90.04
59.56
74.03
49.42
83.19
57.80
60.24
64.10
1966
80.79
73.03
67.72
78.55
56.50
86.91
63.58
64.46
68.59
1967
87.53
76.48
73.12
81.48
65.45
90.30
71.68
72.29
75.00
1968
93.21
105.22
78.76
86.68
78.51
92.22
80.35
82.53
82.05
1969
101.82
102.84
82.21
94.79
90.24
95.67
89.60
89.16
90.38
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
109.56
114.78
115.83
108.88
112.52
104.60
110.00
109.00
110.00
1972
116.01
121.82
127.79
118.48
125.62
108.59
119.00
121.00
119.00
1973
121.18
130.33
141.88
133.57
139.99
113.74
131.00
135.00
129.00
1974
126.58
132.11
156.48
151.74
155.48
119.96
142.00
146.00
140.00
1975
134.08
138.17
164.99
163.69
169.70
124.37
153.00
160.00
152.00
1976
136.06
137.03
171.54
173.65
180.84
126.87
162.00
173.00
163.00
1977
137.40
137.47
178.71
181.90
196.31
129.34
171.00
183.00
174.00
1978
132.45
137.57
187.32
193.96
214.51
131.92
181.81
194.57
184.00
1979
132.69
141.50
194.09
203.13
227.54
137.80
188.69
201.93
192.00
234
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Table A-2 (continued)
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Chemicals and Petrochemicals
Index:1970=100
Mineral
Chemicals
Basic
Chemicals
Aniline
Dye
Products
Synthetic
Resins
and Plastics
Synthetic
Fibers
Organic
Synthetic
Products
Paints and
Lacquers
Rubber
Products
Synthetic
Rubber
1950
4.78
12.26
49.61
4.01
3.88
7.27
18.27
21.38
15.75
1951
5.75
13.35
56.08
3.95
5.68
8.30
21.78
21.72
18.82
1952
7.08
14.73
62.25
4.54
7.90
9.55
23.51
21.95
20.57
1953
8.62
16.29
63.14
5.57
10.00
11.57
24.55
23.44
23.19
1954
10.45
18.46
66.94
7.29
12.65
13.08
28.68
26.81
23.41
1955
12.31
21.29
77.87
9.58
17.74
15.22
30.54
29.43
26.26
1956
14.86
24.06
81.68
11.22
20.69
18.07
33.56
32.74
26.91
1957
16.91
25.61
80.29
12.25
23.87
21.03
38.78
36.93
25.93
1958
20.18
27.05
84.64
14.17
26.65
27.46
42.34
41.58
32.82
1959
23.99
28.36
86.53
16.24
28.81
32.24
49.41
44.71
33.92
1960
29.84
30.19
88.74
18.63
33.90
35.54
53.85
49.75
37.96
1961
35.17
33.39
90.31
22.94
40.19
38.16
52.80
54.87
42.01
1962
39.64
37.04
90.32
27.01
44.51
42.33
56.66
60.21
49.78
1963
42.33
42.46
91.94
33.91
49.50
48.80
57.97
65.17
51.09
1964
51.27
50.58
90.87
41.90
57.96
56.65
60.07
70.37
56.24
1965
62.89
59.85
87.09
48.00
65.38
69.28
68.25
76.35
66.08
1966
70.44
67.33
93.69
58.06
73.56
73.63
75.77
79.88
72.65
1967
76.73
74.43
92.84
66.56
81.96
81.85
85.77
85.60
79.87
1968
81.76
80.31
92.62
77.20
88.88
85.99
87.71
91.78
83.92
1969
88.05
85.50
98.05
86.85
93.66
91.72
91.82
94.30
91.47
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
110.69
109.19
100.63
111.44
108.57
106.67
109.96
104.56
109.41
1972
120.13
116.62
94.57
122.07
119.76
112.03
112.65
112.07
115.97
1973
136.48
127.39
91.99
138.72
133.23
119.52
116.37
122.18
126.37
1974
153.46
141.03
91.92
149.05
142.38
126.33
127.40
136.05
141.14
1975
174.00
156.51
93.49
169.92
153.29
133.38
133.47
148.70
158.64
1976
190.00
162.40
94.23
182.83
163.72
136.66
131.09
157.42
171.77
1977
202.00
170.46
97.29
197.84
174.64
143.00
127.13
165.80
186.00
1978
212.00
174.78
96.98
210.21
181.54
149.88
130.55
170.47
196.39
1979
220.00
171.56
98.14
207.94
176.57
160.20
122.36
173.31
204.27
235
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Table A-2 (continued)
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Wood, Pulp, and Paper Products
Logging
Sawing and
Woodworking
Furniture
Pulp and
Paper
Wood
Chemicals
1950
59.32
41.37
7.54
22.10
60.14
1951
67.23
46.93
8.77
24.70
73.45
1952
66.76
51.00
10.19
27.35
76.55
1953
65.81
55.84
11.68
30.90
82.41
1954
74.80
58.25
15.01
33.97
80.05
1955
76.62
63.43
17.36
35.42
82.51
1956
79.56
64.59
18.66
38.31
82.83
1957
84.71
68.59
21.66
41.69
89.01
1958
88.80
78.22
26.70
44.54
94.40
1959
95.05
86.45
33.32
46.56
99.57
1960
90.58
87.99
39.46
48.66
101.03
1961
87.10
87.40
45.67
51.57
104.39
1962
87.78
87.95
51.38
55.19
106.60
1963
91.84
89.66
56.51
58.29
107.71
1964
95.36
93.24
59.96
62.66
117.42
1965
94.10
94.29
64.63
70.57
125.27
1966
93.15
91.43
69.53
78.10
121.31
1967
97.31
93.45
77.81
84.48
123.84
1968
97.72
94.33
85.66
88.74
120.49
1969
96.37
96.34
91.72
93.52
109.35
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
99.93
102.05
109.32
105.50
96.93
1972
99.61
102.12
119.07
110.25
96.36
1973
101.51
100.38
130.61
116.72
106.71
1974
101.22
99.34
141.47
121.75
114.38
1975
104.00
100.65
152.54
127.73
118.49
1976
100.39
97.80
161.28
133.95
117.24
1977
98.60
95.44
171.84
136.47
120.99
1978
94.61
92.49
182.32
138.82
121.34
1979
91.36
86.87
187.88
130.75
122.31
236
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Table A-2 (continued)
Index:1970 = 100
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Construction Materials
Cement
Concrete
Wall
Materials
Asbestos
Cement
Roofing
Material
Construction
Ceramics
Other
Materials
for
Construction
Glass
and
Porcelain
1950
9.38
1.29
25.18
8.84
21.41
6.01
16.58
25.46
1951
11.18
1.69
30.67
11.43
23.76
8.62
19.71
22.80
1952
13.04
2.09
35.40
14.37
26.99
11.97
22.97
21.49
1953
15.18
2.19
39.89
17.49
30.40
15.97
26.98
26.90
1954
17.94
3.08
44.48
21.37
33.43
20.79
31.80
31.68
1955
20.45
5.27
49.41
25.04
37.77
27.17
38.88
36.75
1956
22.04
8.83
51.50
29.88
40.19
32.81
42.01
41.65
1957
26.96
13.89
60.90
34.93
43.56
39.13
45.85
44.89
1958
31.71
19.71
72.70
38.90
48.60
44.12
54.02
49.67
1959
37.06
26.28
82.12
42.00
51.72
46.44
61.48
54.42
1960
42.51
33.65
86.84
48.23
56.24
51.72
68.55
59.64
1961
48.11
40.42
88.34
54.64
59.56
57.53
72.86
61.32
1962
55.28
47.55
85.66
60.76
63.71
62.81
72.94
68.19
1963
61.60
52.42
82.92
63.12
68.40
69.24
72.93
70.13
1964
67.21
57.88
83.56
66.55
74.59
74.50
73.17
77.24
1965
74.37
66.28
85.06
69.36
81.17
77.39
77.77
79.10
1966
82.13
75.67
88.73
76.16
86.73
80.21
80.89
82.91
1967
87.00
83.20
94.31
82.07
90.49
84.08
87.24
84.80
1968
90.56
87.11
95.52
87.05
88.62
87.52
91.45
88.51
1969
93.35
90.85
94.89
88.73
94.53
92.41
91.79
91.33
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
106.30
106.72
103.18
105.61
102.65
105.43
110.14
104.71
1972
111.05
112.54
105.76
111.36
106.25
109.62
116.48
113.48
1973
117.11
119.88
108.61
118.35
116.74
115.68
124.58
121.66
1974
123.53
126.22
109.78
124.87
126.27
120.40
130.65
130.13
1975
131.59
132.37
112.06
132.66
131.96
127.17
134.22
142.13
1976
134.15
137.27
112.11
138.77
141.34
129.91
141.06
147.89
1977
136.67
139.89
110.43
125.27
137.81
136.47
145.13
155.25
1978
137.76
141.91
109.23
126.44
140.06
142.87
151.82
161.65
1979
133.20
139.16
104.37
127.08
131.44
139.88
158.74
166.77
237
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Table A-2 (continued)
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Light Industry
Cotton
Fabric
Silk
Fabric
Wool
Fabric
Linen
Fabric
Hosiery and
Knitwear
Sewn
Goods
Other Light
Industry
1950
44.62
9.24
28.55
36.41
17.74
19.54
37.42
1951
54.24
12.35
32.78
39.73
22.74
22.27
42.12
1952
57.72
15.70
35.41
32.14
24.83
25.00
42.26
1953
60.99
27.24
38.72
36.21
27.29
27.91
42.84
1954
64.78
35.23
44.91
36.05
31.54
33.19
45.25
1955
68.71
36.24
46.68
38.40
34.65
36.72
47.57
1956
64.56
52.55
50.12
49.97
35.12
40.43
49.63
1957
66.56
57.02
53.17
54.91
37.36
40.84
54.28
1958
70.03
60.23
57.23
62.22
39.79
44.72
60.10
1959
75.02
57.83
61.73
68.57
42.83
49.36
65.36
1960
78.64
58.92
65.34
73.00
45.72
52.97
68.92
1961
79.24
59.55
68.00
69.76
47.55
56.74
72.31
1962
79.88
68.67
70.51
68.56
50.20
58.99
73.69
1963
82.43
69.85
71.28
72.04
53.69
57.80
74.75
1964
87.22
72.60
71.99
76.94
61.37
56.39
76.41
1965
89.39
69.90
71.78
77.51
70.07
56.25
77.20
1966
92.70
75.83
78.69
83.73
77.58
61.88
81.37
1967
96.16
81.85
84.40
90.81
83.72
70.63
86.23
1968
99.41
82.90
90.29
95.62
89.41
81.58
90.69
1969
100.91
89.53
95.70
95.33
95.23
90.72
94.91
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
103.98
103.84
105.35
107.50
103.77
106.25
100.53
1972
104.37
110.82
107.02
109.62
105.35
107.50
96.22
1973
106.92
117.36
111.05
112.59
109.89
109.38
99.10
1974
107.67
125.77
115.70
112.59
112.50
112.50
101.64
1975
107.83
131.59
118.78
110.18
113.99
118.75
103.15
1976
110.19
139.53
123.56
114.14
116.94
125.74
105.80
1977
110.71
143.80
127.97
115.56
119.69
130.81
106.71
1978
113.25
147.91
130.54
117.40
122.04
135.89
106.79
1979
113.41
150.44
132.38
108.63
124.40
141.61
106.20
238
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Table A-2 (continued)
Gross Sector Output Indexes: Processed Food
Fish
Products
Meat
Products
Dairy
Products
Sugar
Flour and
Cereal
Bread
Products
Confec-
tionary
Products
Vegetable
Oils
Fruit and
Vegetable
Products
Other
Food
1950
18.36
21.83
7.62
24.88
44.00
49.07
34.29
29.65
17.82
18.29
1951
22.75
24.40
10.10
29.40
49.08
51.86
39.99
33.06
19.97
20.91
1952
25.00
27.36
10.87
30.39
54.48
55.28
44.41
35.79
22.22
22.96
1953
28.68
30.76
12.07
34.14
57.45
58.39
48.69
41.51
24.53
26.01
1954
33.85
30.43
13.44
26.25
62.47
62.11
50.31
45.69
28.50
29.75
1955
39.22
33.38
16.20
34.02
69.65
65.84
47.96
41.41
32.99
31.64
1956
42.99
36.37
23.23
43.28
69.70
69.57
54.63
54.64
36.69
34.38
1957
40.53
40.63
28.93
44.55
72.54
73.91
54.21
60.62
38.44
37.24
1958
41.50
46.07
33.35
53.80
77.13
78.26
57.87
52.66
40.86
39.45
1959
44.13
58.10
38.89
59.41
80.26
79.19
61.71
68.16
44.58
42.36
1960
48.71
60.44
43.98
62.87
79.29
80.12
60.22
56.97
49.18
45.23
1961
51.20
58.02
47.88
82.28
81.52
84.16
62.36
65.32
54.86
48.06
1962
54.68
66.01
49.59
76.69
81.77
88.20
67.33
76.35
59.60
52.71
1963
59.74
74.84
50.66
61.52
77.64
90.06
71.17
79.07
68.69
57.76
1964
68.65
57.34
55.75
80.89
75.64
93.79
79.63
80.83
70.95
61.62
1965
71.93
72.29
62.74
108.01
83.75
94.41
79.94
100.11
68.52
66.46
1966
75.78
80.05
68.64
95.34
88.80
96.27
77.28
99.18
74.38
72.23
1967
81.15
89.90
75.51
97.26
90.30
96.89
81.98
109.94
88.56
77.90
1968
83.70
92.75
85.17
105.03
91.51
95.96
88.09
114.43
94.13
82.59
1969
91.66
91.12
93.42
100.99
92.56
99.07
95.48
107.85
88.06
93.20
1970
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
1971
103.60
114.25
100.68
88.54
102.51
103.42
99.79
104.63
107.25
101.86
1972
112.08
122.05
102.08
87.28
105.24
105.90
102.24
101.00
118.03
103.92
1973
119.84
117.45
109.60
104.97
103.28
105.90
108.56
95.09
124.66
94.42
1974
131.02
132.14
118.35
92.86
100.98
106.21
112.81
122.08
133.31
107.20
1975
145.49
139.28
121.41
101.98
98.02
109.32
112.12
119.52
137.62
114.38
1976
152.41
120.02
120.89
91.15
94.96
112.11
116.95
97.70
128.63
119.50
1977
150.43
131.38
125.61
117.97
104.54
111.18
121.93
103.16
134.18
119.71
1978
155.08
138.46
127.36
119.70
102.10
114.29
127.66
103.67
130.18
106.91
1979
164.99
139.09
127.82
104.69
106.22
114.91
130.15
97.73
141.33
118.39
239
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Appendix B
Computation of the
Machinery Index
Creation of the machinery index requires two separate
tasks:
� The relative weights of producer durables, consumer
durables, and military machinery as a share of all
machinery in the base year must be estimated.
� Indexes must be derived to drive these weights over
time to record the growth in production.
These two tasks can be decomposed into the following
six steps:
The first step is to determine which input-output
sectors produce consumer and/or producer durables.
Unfortunately, information was inadequate to divide
consumption final demand between private and public
consumption in the reconstruction of the 1972 input-
output table. Thus, we are forced to use the 1966
input-output table in 1970 prices as the basis for
splitting machinery deliveries to consumption into
private and public components.' Of the 27 machine-
building and metalworking (MBMW) sectors in the
1966 table, all except possibly one manufacture pro-
ducer durables and only eight produce consumer
durables based on patterns of deliveries to final
demand.
The second step is to construct indexes representing
each type of durable for as many of the machinery
sectors as possible. These sector indexes are con-
structed in much the same way as they are for other
branches. The products for every sector are valued in
1 July 1967 prices and then summed for every year.
The one difference is that some of the sectors produc-
ing both consumer and producer durables are divided
into two subsamples, resulting in two indexes for these
sectors. Occasionally the sample for a given sector is
so limited in scope that we are compelled to use the
same index to move both producer and consumer
durables.
' A version of this table appears in Vladimir G. Treml and Gene D.
Guill, "Conversion of the 1966 Producer's Price Table to a New
Price Base," in Treml, Studies, pp. 197-281.
241
Ideally we should have 35 indexes: 27 for the sectors
that manufacture producer durables and eight for
those making consumer durables. Because of informa-
tion gaps reasonable indexes can be constructed for
only 27 of the possibilities-20 producer durable
sectors and seven consumer durable sectors. More-
over, in three of these sectors the same index is used
for both kinds of machinery. The sectors with missing
indexes and their estimated share of machinery value
added in 1972 are as follows:
Percentage Share
of Value Added
Total
31.8
Cables�consumer durables
1.1
Cables�producer durables
NEGL
Casting machine & equipment�producer
durables
0.1
Tools and dies�producer durables
1.3
Construction materials
Machine & equipment�producer durables
0.5
Bearings�producer durables
1.0
Other machinery�nonconsumer durables
27.4
Abrasives�producer durables
0.4
Although the tabulation above casts considerable
doubt on the coverage of the index for machinery,
with nearly one-third of value added unaccounted for,
it is somewhat misleading. The bulk of the missing
share is in the "other machinery" sector, which is
commonly believed to conceal a large military ma-
chinery component that is captured elsewhere in our
index. If it is assumed that all of the "other machin-
ery" is military and the totals are accordingly
adjusted, the missing sectors combined add to less
than 6 percent of the total.
The third step consists of estimating value added in
1972 for each sector and type of machinery (see table
B-1). To do this we assume that every ruble of product
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Table B-1
USSR: Allocation of Value Added in the Machinery Sector
to Producer Durables and Consumer Durables
(1)
Sector
(2)
Total Deliveries
to Final
Demand
(million rubles) a
(3)
Deliveries to
Private
Consumption
(million rubles) b
(4)
Consumer
Durables
Share
(Percent) a
(5)
Producer
Durables
Share
(Percent) d
(6)
Sector Value-
Added
(million rubles) a
Energy and power machinery
and equipment
740.8
0
0
100.0
671.0
Electrotechnical machinery
and equipment
2,842.2
455.0
16.0
84.0
3,149.3
Cable products i
-243.0
6.9
100.0
0
516.5
Machine tools
1,349.7
0
0
100.0
858.1
Forge press machinery
and equipment
297.5
0
0
100.0
200.7
Casting machinery and
equipment
64.8
0
0
100.0
52.6
Tools and dies
157.5
0
0
100.0
605.9
Precision instruments
2,490.8
466.3
18.7
81.3
3,326.9
Mining and metal machinery
and equipment
1,522.4
0
0
100.0
1,039.0
Pumps and compressors
1,693.8
505.8
29.9
70.1
1,008.4
Log and paper machinery
and equipment
224.8
0
0
100.0
142.9
Light-industry machinery
and equipment
488.6
35.1
7.2
92.8
352.0
Food-industry machinery
and equipment
516.1
0
0
100.0
321.1
Printing machinery and
equipment
56.3
0
0
100.0
39.1
Hoist-transport machinery
and equipment
1,066.9
0
0
100.0
533.4
Construction machinery
and equipment
1,205.3
0
0
100.0
574.8
Construction material
machinery and equipment
320.8
0
0
100.0
222.7
Transport machinery and
equipment
4,285.4
0
0
100.0
1,812.6
Automobiles
3,846.8
1,003.7
26.1
73.9
2,874.6
Agriculture machinery and
equipment
3,099.6
0
0
100.0
2,129.4
Bearings
121.6
0
0
100.0
448.2
Other machinery
19,848.4
2,078.8
10.5
89.5
14,461.5
Sanitary engineering machinery
and equipment
53.9
0
0
100.0
578.4
Other metalwares
1,322.3
959.5
72.6
27.4
1,961.9
Metal structures .
-7.2
0
0
100.0
734.7
Repair machinery and
equipment
10,282.2
0
0
100.0
8,470.4
Abrasives i
-85.7
0
0
100.0
170.8
Total machinery
57,562.6
5,511.1
47,256.4
a Drawn from the 1972 producer prices input-output table.
b Drived from the 1972 table and the 1966 table as estimated in 1970
producer prices. For sectors with nonzero deliveries to consumption
in 1972, the private consumption share of that total is assumed to be
the same percentage as it is in the 1966 table.
a 100 x column (3)/column (2).
242
a 100 - column (4).
a See a. Total outlays - interindustry purchases.
f Column (4) x column (6)/100.
Column (5) x column (6)/100.
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Table B-1 (continued)
USSR: Allocation of Value Added in the Machinery Sector
to Producer Durables and Consumer Durables
(I)
Sector
(7)
Value Added
in Manufacture of
Consumer Durables
(million rubles) f
(8)
Value Added
in Manufacture of
Producer Durables
rubles) $
(9)
Consumer
Durables
Index Status h
(10)
Producer
Index
Status h
Energy and power machinery
and equipment
0
671.2
NC
Electrotechnical machinery
and equipment
509.2
2,645.0
EQ
EQ
Cable products i
516.5
0
NI
NI
Machine tools
0
858.1
NC
Forge press machinery
and equipment
0
200.7
NC
Casting machinery and equipment
0
52.6
NC
NI
Tools and dies
0
605.9
NC
NI
Precision instruments
622.8
2,704.1
NC
Mining and metal machinery
and equipment
0
1,039.9
NC
Pumps and compressors
301.2
7072
Log and paper machinery
and equipment
0
142.9
NC
Light-industry machinery
and equipment
25.3
326.8
EQ
EQ
Food-industry machinery
and equipment
0
321.1
NC
Printing machinery and equipment
0
39.1
NC
Hoist-transport machinery
and equipment
0
533.4
NC
Construction machinery
and equipment
0
574.8
NC
Construction material machinery
and equipment
0
222.7
NC
NI
Transport machinery and equipment
0
1,812.6
NC
Automobiles
750.0
2,124.6
Agriculture machinery and
equipment
0
2,129.4
NC
Bearings
0
448.2
NC
NI
Other machinery
1,514.6
12,946.9
NI
Sanitary engineering machinery
and equipment
0
578.4
NC
Other metalwares
1,423.2
538.1
EQ
EQ
Metal structures
0
734.7
NC
Repair machinery and equipment
0
8,470.4
NC
Abrasives i
0
170.8
NC
NI
Total machinery
5,657.7
41,598.7
h Key
NC: This sector does not produce any consumer durables according
to the input-output table.
Ni: No reliable index is available for measuring either producer or
consumer durables production in this sector.
u: The production index used is unique either to producer or
consumer durables in this sector.
EQ: The same production index is used both for producer and
consumer durables in this sector.
The negative final demand of cable products, metal structures, and
abrasives prevents determination of the producer and consumer
durables shares. Since for cables the apparent consumer durables
share is positive and the producer durables share is negative, we
arbitrarily allocate all of that sector's value added to consumer
durables. Since metal structures and abrasives apparently have no
private consumption, we allocate their entire value added to the
producer durables group.
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shipped to final demand in a given sector embodies
the same value added regardless of whether the
machinery is a producer or consumer durable. Based
on this assumption, the value added for each machin-
ery type can be estimated by multiplying total sector
value added by each component's share of deliveries
to final demand.
Some bias is introduced by determining the relative
importance of producer and consumer durables as
described above. Deliveries of many machinery sec-
tors to final demand categories other than private
consumption undoubtedly include substantial
amounts of purely military machinery; not all military
hardware is produced in the "other machinery" sector
of table B-1. This gives producer durables an exces-
sively high weight and consumer durables too low a
weight.
In the fourth step the producer and consumer dura-
bles indexes are calculated separately. Indexes of each
type are converted into value added by linking them to
the values derived in table B-1: the resulting values
are then summed for every year.
The fifth step derives the production index for civilian
machinery by using the control totals for 1972 value
added of consumer durables and producer durables in
table B-1, that s, 41,599 and 5,658 million rubles,
respectively. Applying these weights to the producer
durables and consumer durables indexes and adding
them together provide the index for civilian
machinery.
Finally, the civilian and military machinery indexes
are combined into an index of total Soviet machinery
production. The weights are obtained according to the
following procedure. The figure for military machin-
ery production in 1972 (after deducting common use
durables) is converted to value added by using the
ratio of total machinery final demand to value added
as given in the reconstructed 1972 input-output table.
The military share of value added in machinery
production in 1972 is derived by comparing this value
with total value added in the machinery branch. The
indexes of output for civilian machinery and military
machinery are then used to find the shares in the base
year, 1970�for military machinery, about one-third
and for civilian machinery, about two-thirds.
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Part III. AN INDEX OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE USSR
By Barbara Severin and Margaret Hughes
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93-892 0 - 82 - 17
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Contents
Page
I. Summary
II. Introduction
III. Construction of the Index
A. Coverage of the Sample
B. 1970 Price Weights
C. The Index
IV. Evaluation of Official Soviet Statistics
A. Availability
B. Accuracy
C. Lack of Consistency Over Time
D. Comparability With Western Statistics
V. Deductions for Waste
A. The Nature of the Problemn
B. Calculation of Waste in Sunflower Seed and Grain
VI. Deductions for Seed and Livestock Feed
A. Grain and Potatoes Used for Seed
B. Estimates of Livestock Feed and Hatching Eggs
C. Testing the Estimates of Seed and Feed
VII. Sensitivity Tests
A. Use of Alternative Discounts and Feed Values
251
253
253
253
257
259
260
260
261
263
265
266
266
267
269
270
271
274
275
276
B. Use of Alternative Price Weights 276
VIII. Comparison of the CIA Index with Other Indexes of Soviet Agricultural 278
Production
A. The Official Soviet Index of USSR Gross Agricultural Output 279
B. The FAO Index 281
C. The USDA Index of Soviet Agricultural Output 281
D. The US Index of Agricultural Output 283
Appendixes
A.
Derivation-of Quantity Data Used in the Index of Soviet 285
Agricultural Production
B. USSR: Average Realized 1970 Prices of Agricultural Commodities 297
C.
USSR: Intrasector Use of Agricultural Output 303
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Tables
1.
USSR: Value of Agricultural Output, 1970
255
2.
Commodities Included in CIA and Soviet Indexes of Agricultural
258
Production
3.
USSR: Index of Net Agricultural Production, Selected Years
260
4.
Comparison of Official and Estimated Grain Output, 1950-1962
265
5.
USSR: Estimated Waste and Losses in the Gross Grain Harvest
270
6.
Intrasector Use of Agricultural Output
271
7.
Sensitivity Tests of CIA Index
277
8.
Sensititity Tests of Shares of Net Output
278
9.
Comparison of CIA and Soviet Official Indexes of Agricultural
280
Production
10.
Comparison of Structure of Output in Soviet and CIA Indexes
281
11.
Comparison of CIA and FAO Indexes of Soviet Agricultural
282
Production, 1966-79
12.
Comparison of CIA and USDA Indexes of Soviet Agricultural
283
Production
13.
Comparison of Structure of Output in CIA and USDA Indexes
283
14.
Comparison of Relative Prices in CIA and USDA Indexes of Soviet
284
Agrjcultural Production
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List of Standard Citations
Full Citation
Abbreviated
Citation
USSR Central Statistical Administration, Statistical Handbooks
Sel'skoye khozyaystvo SSSR, 1960, (Agriculture USSR) Selkhoz 1960
Sel'skoye khozyaystvo SSSR, 1971, (Agriculture USSR) Selkhoz 1971
Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 19�godu (National Economy of the USSR in 19�) Narkhoz 19�
Soviet Periodicals
Voprosy ekonomiki (Problems of Economics) Vop ek
Vestnik statistiki (Herald of Statistics)
Ekonomika sel'skogo khozyaystva (Economics of Agriculture)
Vest stat
Ek selkhoz
Planovoye khozyaystvo (Planned Economy) Plan khoz
US Government Publications
CIA, The Soviet Grain Balance, 1960-73, A (ER) 75-68, September 1975
Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States
Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80, 1982
A (ER) 75-68
JEC, GNP, 1950-80
An Index of Industrial Production in the USSR, 1982 JEC, Industry
An Index of Agricultural Production in the USSR, 1982
An Index of in the USSR, 1982
Consumption in the USSR: An International Comparison, 1981
CIA, USSR: Gross National Product Accounts, 1970 A (ER)75-76, November 1975
JEC, Agriculture
JEC, Consumption
JEC, Consumption Comparison
CIA, GNP 1970
Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 JEC, GNP Comparison
Other Publications
Vladimir G. Treml and John P. Hardt, eds., Soviet Economic Statistics, Treml and Hardt
Durham, N.C., Duke University Press, 1972
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An Index of Agricultural
Production in the USSR
I. Summary
The CIA index of Soviet net agricultural production
measures trends in the value of agricultural produc-
tion available for sale and home consumption for each
year in the USSR since 1950. The output index
measures production in the year in which it is pro-
duced, although some of this production may be
marketed or consumed in subsequent years. The index
is devised to measure agriculture's contribution to
Soviet GNP. The index also has served as the basis for
international comparisons of farm output and for
studies of productivity in Soviet agriculture. The
following tabulation shows the relatively close corre-
spondence of the CIA index and other major indexes
of Soviet agricultural production.
Average Annual Percentage
Rates of Growth
1951-79
1961-70
1971-79
Indexes of net output
CIA
3.0
3.7
0.9
US Department of Agriculture
3.1
3.6
1.5
Indexes of gross output
CIA
3.2
3.6
1.2
Official Soviet
3.2
3.3
1.4
The CIA index is based on output of 28 individual
crops, ten livestock products, and four items of live-
stock inventory change. When the CIA index is
calculated on a gross basis and compared with the
official Soviet index of gross output, the livestock
component covers about 95 percent of the Soviet
measure of livestock products and the crop component
about 80 percent of crop production. We assume that
the trend in output of residual crop and livestock
products is the same as that of the price-weighted
aggregate of commodities included in the sample. In
the CIA index, grain and potatoes make up over half
of crop output while meat and milk dominate livestock
production. The CIA index omits production of hay
and other forage crops, decorative plants, fishing, fur
production, and minor livestock products such as
feathers, beeswax, and silkworm eggs. Also excluded
are manure and "unfinished production" included in
the Soviet definition of gross agricultural production.
Output estimates in the CIA index are largely based
on Soviet agricultural statistics. Estimates are made,
however, where data are missing. Official production
statistics are corrected as necessary for measurement
error, or where Soviet data seriously overstate usable
or standard-weight output. The physical production
data for the commodities in the index are aggregated
for the most part with average prices received by all
producers for products sold in 1970, into two subsector
indexes�one for crops and the other for livestock
output. Average realized prices for the majority of
commodities can be estimated with adequate reliabil-
ity. In some cases, however, state procurement prices
had to be substituted even though they are less
desirable since they exclude collective farm market
prices. Despite this bias, sensitivity tests indicate that
price weights are not a major source of error in the
index.
Much less certain are the estimates of intra-agricul-
tural use of farm output�seed and feed�that are
deducted from gross output to derive net agricultural
production. Seed estimates are based on annual sown
area data and on officially prescribed seeding rates for
a fixed period. The use of a constant seeding rate
probably introduces an element of error, yet seed
estimates are relatively more reliable than those for
feed. Although estimates of grain fed derive from
official data, estimates of potatoes fed are particularly
tentative for years where official data are lacking.
Only occasional Soviet statements on quantities of
whole milk and vegetables fed are available to derive
estimates of quantities fed. Quantities of other com-
modities fed are too small to be a source of substantial
error.
A potentially more important source of error is the
paucity and unreliability of published Soviet agricul-
tural statistics. Although data are more plentiful now
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than 10 or 20 years ago and reliability may have
improved, many gaps remain. Estimates must be
made, especially for agricultural products used in the
production process. The accuracy of important series
is also questionable. For example, statistics on private
sector production, which are based on sampling, prob-
ably contain a considerable margin of error, with
particular consequences for the measurement of out-
put in the livestock sector. Further reducing reliability
of estimates of net output in the livestock sector is the
scarcity of published feed statistics which, in any case,
are believed to be less reliable than official commodity
output data. Deliberate falsification is another source
of diminished reliability in agricultural statistics.
Grain output statistics for the early 1950s published
nearly a decade later almost certainly reflect deliber-
ate understatement of the crop. Examples of recent
falsification can also be found. Because most recent
falsification appears to originate at lower levels in the
reporting process, it is unclear how it impinges on the
overall aggregate data.
Soviet gross output statistics also include a large
element of waste. For example, there is considerable
evidence to suggest that the usable quantities of grain,
sugarbeet, potato, vegetable, fruit, sunflower seed,
and egg production are smaller than official produc-
tion statistics report. Moreover, standard weight of
these commodities may be even less. Adjusting for
waste is very difficult because of the shortage of data.
We confine our deductions for waste and losses to
grain and sunflower seed output, where we believe
data exist to make such adjustments feasible. The
waste in sugarbeet production is eliminated by use of
procurement statistics�which are reported in stan-
dard weight. Failure to deduct for waste elements in
other crops is potentially the most serious cause of
overstatement of net output in the CIA index. How-
ever, we adopted the policy of not imposing arbitrary
adjustments on official Soviet data where no informa-
tion exists on which to base such adjustments. To the
extent that these adjustments are proportionately
constant over time, the trend is not distorted.
Because of these and other deficiencies in available
Soviet statistics, we believe our index is a more
reliable measure of trends in agricultural production
than of levels of output. In this context it is a more
reliable indicator of the change over a period of years -
than of changes between any two consecutive years.
The CIA index shows net output growing more
rapidly in the 1950s and slowing steadily during the
1960s and 1970s. This trend is clearly seen in output
of the livestock sector. Crop output grew more rapidly
in the 1960s than in the 1950s but growth fell to rates
below either of these periods in the 1970s. The rapid
growth of the livestock sector in the 1950s caused the
share of livestock output in total net production to
increase from 45 to 54 percent between 1950 and
1960. Since 1960 share of livestock output in net
agricultural production has remained unchanged.
Average Annual Percentage
Rates of Growth
1951-60
1961-70
1971-79
Total output
4.3
3.7
0.9
Crop production
2.6
3.7
0.7
Livestock production
6.1
3.7
1.0
We applied several sensitivity tests to the index to
assess changes that would be caused by different
discounts for waste, different (1960) price weights,
and different approaches to valuing feed and livestock
inventory. None of the tests changed average annual
growth of total output for the 1951-79 period by more
than one-tenth of one percentage point. The livestock
index was most affected by the use of 1960 prices
while the crop index was most altered by removing the
discounts on grain and sunflower seed. Because 1970
prices are relatively more favorable to livestock pro-
ducts than 1960 prices, the switch to 1960 prices
caused the largest shift in the shares of total output
originating in the crop and livestock sectors.
We compared the CIA index to three other indexes of
Soviet agricultural output. Surprisingly, for the 1960s
and 1970s, growth rates of total output calculated
from these indexes differ by less than half a percent-
age point, although the indexes themselves vary wide-
ly in coverage and weighting:
� The FAO index incorporates a recently revised
methodology and thus covers only 1966 forward; it
is based on a large sample.
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� The USDA index covers all years since 1950 and is
also based on a large sample, but is weighted with
average prices received by farmers in Western
Europe during 1969-71. The latter diverge some-
what from Soviet relative prices.
� The official Soviet index measures gross rather than
net output, that is, it includes the value of crops and
livestock products used in agricultural production as
well as unknown quantities of waste. The CIA index
is calculated on a gross basis for this comparison.
The major difference between the CIA index on a
gross basis and the Soviet index of gross agricultural
output is the heavier weight placed on livestock
production in the CIA index. In the Soviet index since
1960, crops and livestock have contributed equally to
gross output, while in the CIA index during this
period the livestock sector accounts for about 54 to 56
percent of gross output. Nevertheless, for the 1951-79
period as a whole, gross output in the Soviet and CIA
indexes and net output in the CIA index all grow at
about the same rate. The largest discrepancy in
growth rates occurs in 1951-60, when the official
index shows much more rapid growth than the CIA
index of net output. When we adjust the CIA index to
a gross basis and use the same price weights as are in
the official Soviet index, the differences in growth
narrow. Some of the discrepancy in the shares of crops
and livestock in total output remains, however, be-
cause we do not include the value of hay and green
feed in crop output. Moreover, the CIA index omits a
number of other crops included in the official Soviet
index.
H. Introduction.'
The CIA index of agricultural production is a key
element in CIA's estimates of growth in Soviet GNP.
Because about 16 percent of GNP originates in
agriculture, the GNP measure must incorporate a
reliable indicator of year-to-year changes in value
added in agriculture�especially since weather causes
' The authors wish to thank John Carroll, Constance Krueger, and
Luba Richter for their assistance in the preparation of this paper.
They are particularly indebted to Constance Krueger, whose
meticulous research is largely responsible for the prices and the
seeding rates used in construction of the index.
wide fluctuations in agricultural output with substan-
tial effect on annual changes in GNP. The USSR
does not publish an index of value added in agricul-
ture, however.' We estimate value added by first
deriving net agricultural output, that is, by reducing
the value of gross production by the value of output
consumed in the production process (seed and feed)
and by waste. When the value of agriculture's pur-
chases from other sectors of the economy�fuel, fertil-
izer, spare parts, services, and the like�are subtract-
ed from net output, the result is value added.'
This paper describes and evaluates the CIA index of
net agricultural output. First, the derivation of the
sample coverage and 1970 price weights is described.
We then consider the validity of Soviet agricultural
statistics on which the index is based. We present our
estimates of seed, feed, and waste. After describing
the construction of the index of net output, we apply
sensitivity tests to assess the effects of different waste
measures and price weights. Finally, we compare the
structure and trends in the CIA index with those in
three other indexes of Soviet agricultural output,
including the official Soviet index of agricultural
production. The details of our estimates and the
sources for all data used in the index are presented in
the appendixes.
III. Construction of the Index
A. Coverage of the Sample
Estimates of net agricultural output are derived by
aggregating the value of production of 28 individual
crops, 10 livestock products and four items of live-
stock inventory change using the 1970 average prices
The USSR publishes data on net output of agriculture in current
prices in official national income statistics. This is not comparable
to the Western definition of net output, however, because the Soviet
series deducts all material inputs and not just those produced within
agriculture. The Soviet national income series excludes depreci-
ation, which is part of value added and includes the value of
services purchased from outside the sector such as transportation,
recreation, financial services, and the like which are not included in
the Western definition of value added. Thus the Soviet series does
.not correspond exactly to our definition of value added, although it
is probably closer in concept to value added than to net output as
measured by our index. See CIA ER 78-10505, USSR: Toward a
Reconciliation of Marxist and Western Measures of National
Income, October 1978.
' Estimates of purchases by agriculture from other sectors are
discussed in the paper by John Pitzer, JEC, GNP, 1950-80.
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received by all producers.' Agricultural commodities
are included in the index in the year in which they
were produced although some of the commodities may
be marketed or consumed in subsequent years. We
divide agriculture into two subsectors: crops and
livestock. Net production of the crop sector is the
value of crop production available for sale outside the
crop sector and for direct consumption by farm
households�that is, gross crop production minus the
value of seed grain and seed potatoes and minus waste
elements in grain and sunflower seed production. In
theory, waste should be deducted for all crops, but
lack of data makes it impossible to estimate these
quantities for crops other than grain and sunflower
seed. Crops used exclusively within agriculture for
feed such as hay, corn for silage, feed roots, and so
forth, are not counted. Similarly, to obtain "net"
output of the livestock sector, gross output is reduced
by animal products used for feed and hatching eggs.
When the two sectors are aggregated to measure total
net agricultural output, the value of commodities
transferred between them for use in the production
process is subtracted to avoid double counting. These
transfers represent feed produced in the crop sector
but consumed by livestock such as grain, potatoes,
whole milk, and vegetables. Because hay and other
forage crops are not included in crop output, they are
not part of these transfers. Data are lacking to
estimate transfers such as manure from the livestock
sector to crop production. When the two subsector
indexes are considered independently, feed is counted
as crop output and also is included implicitly in the
value of livestock output. In measuring total net
output, we subtract the value of crops and whole milk
fed as well as hatching eggs from livestock output.
Thus, the value of hay and other forage crops is
automatically included in net livestock output. The
CIA index, then, defines net livestock production as
gross output minus a) the value of selected agricultur-
al commodities fed to livestock and b) the value of
hatching eggs. Because our crop index and feed
deduction make no allowance for hay and other forage
' The index is a Laspeyres quantity index where
/ P70, j Qi j
I, -- j:11
/ P70, j Q70, j
=
crops, the value of net livestock output is somewhat
overstated relative to the value of net crop output. The
value of these feed crops is small, however, and its
exclusion does not have a significant effect on the
results.' Below, we define the sample categories in
more detail.' We touch briefly on waste as it affects
each category; a fuller discussion of the waste prob-
lem can be found in section V below. Table 1 shows
the ruble value and percentage distribution of agricul-
tural production in 1970 according to our index.
Grain and Potatoes. Grain and potatoes together
amount to 60 percent of net crop output. We account
separately for nine types of grain: wheat, rye, corn,
barley, oats, rice, millet, buckwheat, pulses, and "oth-
er grains." Other grains amounted to less than 1
percent of the value of grain output in 1970. The
following tabulation shows the value of grain produc-
tion in 1970. Wheat and barley together account for
over two-thirds of the ruble value of net grain output.
While wheat has always been the single most impor-
tant grain, barley has been in second place only since
the early 1960s. Growth in barley production is
associated with the emphasis on rapid expansion of
feed grain output. Before then, rye was the second
largest grain crop in value terms.
Million Rubles
Percent
Wheat
7256.0
53.1
Rye
990.5
7.3
Buckwheat
224.0
1.6
Rice
307.4
2.2
Corn for grain
1009.6
7.4
Oats
839.4
6.2
Barley
2282.9
16.7
Millet
138.2
1.0
Pulses
600.9
4.4
Other
8.3
0.1
Total
13657.2
100.0
While the CIA index is primarily used to derive value added in
agriculture, with some adjustments it can also be used to gauge
trends in output of the crop and livestock sectors available to
consumers. For this purpose, net crop output is defined as gross
output less seed, waste, and grain, potatoes, and vegetables used for
feed. Net livestock output is defined as gross output less whole milk
fed and eggs for hatching. Redefining the subsectors in this way
raises the growth in livestock output and reduces the growth in crop
output reflecting the relatively rapid gains made by the Soviet
consumer in consumption of livestock products.
6 Details on the derivation of the quantity data used in the index are
presented in appendix A. The derivation of 1970 average realized
prices is explained in appendix B.
'These include sorghum, spelt, vetch, lupin, seradella and other
minor miscellaneous grains.
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Gross potato production includes without differenti-
ation the so-called "standard" quality output and the
inferior, nonstandard production grade. To measure
net output of grain and potatoes, gross output is
reduced by quantities used for seed and, in the case of ,
grain, by waste. No waste is deducted from gross
output of potatoes because data are lacking. (Our
estimates of seed are discussed below in sections IV
and VI.)
Vegetables and Fruits. Production of vegetables and
fruit accounted for almost one-fifth of net crop output
in 1970 with the value of output evenly split. Until the
late 1960s, however, vegetables predominated. Fruit
production has continued to gain and exceeded annual
average vegetable production in 1975-79. The struc-
ture of production in 1970 is shown below.
Million Rubles
Percent
Fruit
3296.6
48.8
Beets
128.3
1.9
Cabbage
711.4
10.6
Carrots
198.0
2.9
Cucumbers
485.7
7.2
Onions
866.4
12.8
Tomatoes
933.7
13.8
Other vegetables
136.5
2.0
Total
6756.6
100.0
Official Soviet statistics on vegetable production-
published only as a total-include vegetables raised in
"open beds" (field grown), and in hothouses and
heated beds. Field-grown vegetables are by far the
largest category of production.' Vegetables in our
sample include carrots, beets, onions, cabbage, cu-
cumbers, and tomatoes. Vegetables not listed sepa-
rately in the CIA index but included in other vegeta-
bles (parsley, mushrooms, squash, turnips, radishes,
lettuce, spinach, dill, and so on) accounted for only 2
percent of the value of vegetable output in 1970. Fruit
g Melons are often grouped with vegetables in Soviet statistics.
However, melons are not included in official vegetable output
statistics, although they are included in official acreage reports and
in vegetable consumption statistics. Insufficient data are available
on production to include melons in the index.
Table 1
USSR: Value of Agricultural Output, 1970 a
Percent
Category
Number of
Components
Million
Rubles
Grain
10
13657.2
35.5
Potatoes
1
9286.6
24.1
Vegetables
7
3460.0
9.0
Oil crops
3
1303.6
3.4
Fruits, berries, nuts
1
3296.6
8.6
Sugarbeets
1
1856.0
4.8
Cotton
1
3823.9
9.9
Tobacco
1
475.6
1.2
Makhorka
17.5
negL
Fiber flax
1
1068.9
2.8
Tea
1
256.3
0.7
Net crop output
38502.2
100.0
46.1
Meat
5
28797.7
51.5
Milk
1
16271.1
29.1
Eggs
1
4074.0
7.3
Wool
1
1947.9
3.5
Honey
1
336.0
0.6
Silk cocoons
1
171.9
0.3
Livestock
inventory
change
4
4366.8
7.8
Gross livestock
output
55965.3
100.0
Less: feed
hatching eggs
10724.6
185.4
Net livestock
output
45055.3
53.9
Net agricultural
output
83557.4
100.0
a In 1970 average realized prices. A more detailed version of this
table covering the years 1950-79 can be found in appendix A.
output includes grapes, berries, and other fruit (ap-
ples, pears, quinces, cherries, plums, apricots, peaches,
and citrus fruit). Fruit is a single entry in the CIA
index because insufficient data exist to derive annual
estimates of individual types. Like grain and potatoes,
gross output of vegetables and fruits should be re-
duced for waste to convert total output to a net basis.
Lack of a consistent time series of required deductions
prevent this adjustment, although waste is no doubt
considerable.
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Technical Crops. Our sample, shown in the following
tabulation, includes oilseeds, sugarbeets, cotton, to-
bacco, makhorka, fiber flax, and tea. Cotton alone
accounts for almost half of the value of technical crop
production. Sugarbeets, sunflower seed, and fiber flax
account for almost all of the remaining half. These
shares have not changed appreciably over time.
Million Rubles
Percept
Sunflower seed
1057.0
12.0
Soybeans
156.5
1.8
Other oil crops
90.0
1.0
Sugarbeets
1856.0
21.1
Cotton
3823.9
43.5
Tobacco
475.6
5.4
Makhorka
17.5
0.2
Fiber flax
1068.9
12.1
Tea
256.3
2.9
Total
8801.7
100.0
Among oilseeds, we count separately only sunflower
seed and soybeans. Together, these account for 93
percent of total oilseed output.' Other crops grown
exclusively for oilseeds but not listed separately in-
clude castor beans, flaxseed, mustard seed, and at
least 11 other minor oilseeds. A waste discount of 8.0
percent is applied to sunflower seed output. In addi-
tion, oilseeds are produced as a joint product with
cotton and hemp. Cottonseed is included in cotton
production which is measured as raw, unginned cotton
including seeds. Hemp and associated seed, a minor
crop, is not included.
Meat. Meat output in our index is measured at
slaughter weight and includes meat on the bone, all
raw fats, and edible offal derived from livestock and
poultry slaughtered in goverment-operated packing
9 Earlier versions of this index accounted separately for flaxseed,
castor beans, and mustard seed in addition to sunflower seed and
soybeans. In revising the index for this paper, it was established
that continuous time series of official data for these other oilseeds
were not available. Our category "other oil crops" is a residual
derived by subtracting sunflower seed and soybean production from
Soviet data on output of all oil crops.
plants, on socialized farms, and by private sector
households.' We account separately for beef and veal,
mutton and kid, pork, poultry, and other meat. Other
meat includes rabbits, horses, deer, camels, and game,
and amounted to 3 percent of the value of meat output
in 1970. The shares of individual types of meat in total
output have changed somewhat. The share of poultry
has doubled from 6 percent in 1950 to 13 percent in
1979, while mutton dropped from 14 percent to 4
percent. The share of beef dropped from 47 percent to
35 percent between 1950 and 1955 and slowly recov-
ered to 47 percent in 1979. Shares of pork demon-
strated the reverse trend, climbing from 31 percent to
42 percent between 1950 and 1955 and then declining
to 33 percent in 1979. Since 1950, however, beef, veal,
and pork have accounted for at least three-quarters of
the value of total output. The following tabulation
shows the distribution of meat output in 1970:
Million Rubles
Percent
Beef and veal
13234.4
46.0
Pork
10230.8
35.5
Mutton and kid
1827.6
6.3
Poultry
2536.1
8.8
Other meat
968.8
3.4
Total
28797.7
100.0
Other Livestock Products. Milk, eggs, wool, honey,
and silk cocoons are other livestock products in the
index. All are shown in table 1. Gross meat and milk
production, however, roughly accounted for 80 per-
cent of gross output of livestock products in 1970.
This share was almost 90 percent in 1950, and has
risen since 1970 to 84 percent in 1976-79. Milk output
includes all milk from cows, sheep, goats, and mares.
An estimate of whole milk fed to livestock is deducted
in deriving net livestock production. Also excluded
from net output are eggs used for hatching.
I� Edible offal includes the internal organs of the animal: lungs,
liver, heart, kidneys, stomach, and others. It also includes the head,
brains, feet, and other parts that are used for food in the USSR.
Soviet statistics formerly grouped these products in four categories.
Sometime during the 1960s, these were collapsed to two.
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Changes in Livestock Inventories. The CIA index
measures the annual change in the number of cattle,
hogs, sheep and goats, and poultry." Published Soviet
herd statistics do not regularly include other domesti-
cated animals such as camels, donkeys, and reindeer.
The increase or decrease in numbers is valued at the
average realized price per live animal in 1970, which
is derived from the average weight of animals sold to
procurement organizations in that year. We assume
that the larger average weight of mature animals
offsets the lower per animal weight of young animals
so that the average weight for the entire herd is equal
to the average weight of animals designated for
slaughter. Although average animal weight changes
every year, sensitivity tests presented below indicate
that, for most years, the index is not much affected by
failure to take this change into account.
General Assessment.
Sufficient Soviet data are available to assess the
coverage of the CIA index relative to the more
comprehensive Soviet measure of gross agricultural
production.' Table 2 compares the commodities in-
cluded in both indexes." The CIA index includes the
commodities shown in column one; the Soviet index
includes the commodities in both columns." Although
the CIA sample seems to exclude a long list of crops,
most of the excluded crops are used entirely within
agriculture and are not part of output available for
sale and home consumption. Crops omitted from the
CIA index that are not produced for intra-agri-
cultural use include the additional technical crops
such as hops, as well as flowers and decorative plants,
" The change in numbers of horses is excluded because horses are
included in the Soviet definition of agricultural capital stock.
Increments in horse inventories, therefore, are not part of current
net output available for sale.
'Gross output includes the value of all agricultural products and
makes no deduction for agriculture's use of its own output in the
production process.
A'complete list of the commodities in the Soviet index is available
in F.E. Savitskiy et al., Spravochnik po planirovaniyu sel'skogo
khozyaystva, Moscow, 1974, pp. 462-464.
" Meat output is measured quite differently in the two indexes. In
the Soviet index, output is equal to the difference in liveweight of
animals at the beginning and the end of the year minus the weight
of purchased animals plus the liveweight of all animals sold for
slaughter.
and some items of inventory change. In addition to the
broader coverage shown in table 2, the Soviet index
has finer detail for many of the basic commodities.
For example, the CIA index is based on output of nine
specific grains while the Soviet index includes 17
individual types. The CIA index accounts separately
only for sunflower seed and soybeans under oilseeds;
the Soviet index includes 16 individual items in this
category. The coverage of the livestock sector is
conceptually closer in the two indexes than that for
the crop sector despite the differences in measurement
of meat output.
The coverage of the CIA index can also be assessed by
comparing the ruble values of gross agricultural out-
put as measured by the Soviet and CIA indexes. '6
When the two indexes of gross output are compared ,
the CIA index includes 90 percent of Soviet output of
agriculture. Over 95 percent of livestock products and
80 percent of crop output are covered. '6 The CIA
index would show somewhat greater coverage of crop
production if estimates of hay, pasture feed, and other
forage crops had been included when converting the
CIA index to a gross output basis. The comparison
suggests that the CIA index has generally good
coverage probably accounting for roughly 95 percent
of total output net of intrafarm use of crops.
B. 1970 Price Weights
Each commodity in the index of agricultural produc-
tion is valued at the weighted average of prices paid
by the USSR's three major purchasers of farm pro-
ducts in 1970. For a number of commodities, such as
vegetables and meat '7prices received by farm produc-
ers vary substantially depending on the purchaser.
The largest purchasing organization is the Ministry of
" To make this comparison, commodities in the CIA index on a
gross basis were valued in the 1965 comparable prices used in the
Soviet index. In addition, the value of seed and feed were added
back to create a CIA measure of gross output.
'6A detailed discussion of the differences in the growth rates and
the structure of the CIA and Soviet indexes is presented below in
section VIII B.
"Prices for meat are based on procurement prices for live animals
and are converted to a slaughter weight basis. See appendix B.
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Table 2
Commodities Included in CIA and Soviet
Indexes of Agricultural Production
Components of CIA Addditional Components Used in
Index Soviet Gross Output of Agriculture
A. Crops
1. Grain
2. Technical crops
a. fiber crops: cotton
and flax
b. sunflower seed
c. soybeans
d. other oil seeds
e. sugarbeets
f. tobacco and
makhorka
g. tea
3. Potatoes
4. Vegetables
5. Fruits, berries,
and nuts
I. Byproducts of grain crops (straw,'
chaff, and so forth)
2. Technical crops
a. other fiber crops
b. essential oil raw materials
c. medicinal plants
d. chicory root
e. seeds and planting material for
technical crops
f. other technical crops (hops, tea,
and so forth)
g. Other oilseeds
3. Feed crops
a. root crops
b. hay
c. green fodder
d. silage crops
e. other feed crops
f. seeds of feed crops
4. Crops for green manure
5. Flowers and decorative plants
6. Expenses for starting and caring for
perennial plantings
7. Unfinished production (change in
value during the year of expenses for
sowing winter crops and soil
preparation)
B. Livestock
I. Meat (slaughter
weight)
a. beef and veal
b. pork
c. mutton and kid
d. poultry
e. other meat
2. Change in number of
livestock
3. Milk
4. Eggs
5. Wool
7. Silk cocoons
1. Weight gained by livestock during
the year (liveweight)
2. Offspring and increase of working
livestock (horses, camels, donkeys and
mules) and of reindeer
3. Fur-bearing animals (hides and
offspring)
4. Change in number of bee colonies
5. Fish breeding (young fish and fish
catch)
6. Other animal products (hair, horns,
feathers, manure, beeswax, silkworm
eggs)
Procurement, which buys agricultural commodities
from state farms, collective farms, and individual
private sector producers. Other state purchasing orga-
nizations are the Central Union of Consumer Cooper-
atives, and the Ministries of the Food Industry, Meat
and Dairy Industry, Light Industry, and Trade. The
second major sales channel for farm products is the
system of collective farm markets where producers
sell agricultural commodities at prices determined
largely by the interplay of supply and demand. Prices
paid in collective farm markets normally exceed
procurement prices, because products sold through
this channel are of higher quality or because a given
product is scarce or unavailable in state retail stores.
For example, in 1970 the average collective farm
market price for milk was almost double that paid by
procurement organizations.
In practice, average realized prices could not be
obtained for each commodity in the index. Surrogates,
some more satisfactory than others, had to be used in
a number of cases. Although average realized prices
for all grain, vegetables, and meat can be estimated,
the prices needed to value each individual type of
grain, vegetable, and meat are missing. Data on
average collective farm market prices for individual
commodities are especially scarce and must be esti-
mated in many cases. Soviet literature provides rela-
tively ample data on list procurement prices 's for
individual commodities but obtaining USSR-wide
averages of prices actually paid in a given year is
difficult. In the case of honey and some oilseeds, we
had to substitute RSFSR list procurement prices.
Collective farm procurement prices paid in 1970 are
' List procurement prices are paid by procurement organizations
for products of standard quality. Prices for a given product are
differentiated by region in the USSR. In Belorussia, for example, in
1970-72 there were 113 price zones for milk; the milk prices ranged
from 170 to 620 rubles per ton (N.I. Goryachko, Obosnovaniye
sistemy zakupochnykh tsen, Minsk, 1978, p. 20). List prices
exclude adjustments made at the time of sale for product quality.
Grain with moisture content above standard levels, for example,
will be purchased at prices below list prices. List procurement
prices also exclude bonuses paid for sale above the plan quota.
'9 Although the RSFSR prices are only for state and collective
farms and exlude the private sector, this is not a source of
significant error. The private sector produces almost no oilseeds,
and the price for honey was made the same for all producers in
1970 (Zakupki sel'skokhozyaystvennykh produktov, no. 9,
1970, p. 1).
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better surrogates in that they include price bonuses
and penalties, but they are for one producer only. The
average of procurement prices paid in 1970 to all
producers is the best surrogate for average realized
prices.
The following tabulation shows where substitutions
have been made for average realized prices. Each
price used in the index is derived in appendix B.
Average
Realized
Prices
RSFSR List
Procurement
Prices
Procurement Average
Prices Paid Procurement
to Collective Prices Paid
Farms to All
Producers
Grain
Potatoes
Vegetables
Meat
Livestock
inventory
Milk
Eggs
Wool
Sunflower seed
Oil crops
(except
sunflower
seed)
Honey
Sugarbeets
Flax fiber
Tobacco
Makhorka
Silk
Fruit
Cotton
Tea
The error introduced by these substitutions probably
is small. Average realized prices have been used for
the most important commodities in the index. In the
two cases where list procurement prices have been
used the value of output is small. The value of
commodities priced with collective farm procurement
prices probably is overstated; a comparison of pro-
curement prices for commodities where we have prices
for state farms, collective farms, and private produc-
ers shows that average procurement prices paid to
state farms are often somewhat less than those paid to
collective farms and private producers. Since collec-
tive farm market sales of oilseeds, flax, tobacco,
makhorka, silk, cotton, and tea are insignificant,
procurement prices in these cases are an acceptable
substitute for average realized prices. The average
procurement prices understate the value of output
significantly only in the case of fruit and honey, where
collective farm market sales are substantial. Cotton
and tea are sold exclusively through the state procure-
ment system.
Valuing commodities fed at average realized prices
overstates feed use if the portion fed is of much lower
quality than the portion marketed. In the case of
potatoes and vegetables, a lower price is used. By
virtue of the calculation, quantities of grain fed are
standard weight so should be priced at average real-
ized prices. Whole milk fed, however, may not be of
standard butterfat content-the basis for the price-
so could be overvalued. The effect of this over-
statement is small; sensitivity tests indicate that valu-
ing feed at Soviet cost of production does not affect
trends. (See section VII.)
C. The Index
The CIA index of Soviet net agricultural production
shows steadily declining growth after 1960. This trend
is especially prominent in net output of the livestock
sector. Table 3 shows indexes of output for major
commodity groups in benchmark years related to the
base year 1970, while the following tabulation sum-
marizes growth rates for these commodities.
Average Annual Percentage Rates of
Growth
1951-79
1951-60
1961-70
1971-79
Grain
2.5
3.4
4.0
-0.3
Potatoes
0.2
-0.8
2.0
-0.5
Fruits and vegetables
5.1
6.5
5.3
3.3
Technical crops
3.3
4.6
4.0
1.3
Net crop output
2.4
2.6
3.7
0.7
Meat
4.1
6.1
3.5
2.7
Milk
3.4
5.7
3.0
1.3
Other
4.6
9.0
5.5
-0.9
Net livestock output
3.7
s 6.1
3.7
1.0
Net agricultural
output
3.0
4.3
3.7
0.9
Among crops, fruits and vegetables grew most rapidly
over the 1951-79 period, rising from 10 percent of net
crop output in 1950 to 22 percent in 1979. Growth in
grain output held at fairly steady rates while potato
output posted almost no growth. At the same time,
potatoes fell from 40 percent of net crop output in
1950 to 22 percent in 1979. Crop output shows more
variation in growth rates than the livestock sector
where growth rates slowed over the entire period. By
1971-79, only fruits, vegetables, and meat were grow-
ing at average annual rates above 2 percent. For many
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Table 3
USSR: Index of Net Agricultural Production, Selected Years a
1976
1977
1978
1979
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
Grain
48.3
56.4
67.2
66.0
100.0
76.6
120.5
103.3
131.6
97.7
Potatoes
88.9
66.9
82.2
88.8
100.0
90.4
87.9
86.2
89.3
95.4
Fruits and vegetables
31.8
47.5
59.5
75.8
100.0
115.8
124.0
122.0
127.3
133.7
Technical crops
43.2
56.8
67.5
87.6
100.0
104.4
114.9
118.8
112.0
111.9
Net crop output
54.0
57.5
69.6
78.2
100.0
93.2
112.0
106.0
116.2
106.7
Meat
39.1
51.5
70.7
80.3
100.0
122.9
112.5
120.7
126.9
126.8
Milk
42.5
51.8
74.3
87.4
100.0
109.4
108.0
114.4
114.0
112.4
Other livestock products
(including inventory change)
24.7
47.6
58.3
85.6
100.0
58.1
82.7
106.5
97.8
92.1
Net livestock output
38.4
54.1
69.3
86.7
100.0
102.4
101.1
115.3
113.3
109.0
Net agricultural output
45.6
55.6
69.4
82.8
100.0
98.2
106.1
111.0
114.6
107.9
a 1970=100
commodities, 1971-79 growth rates were less than
half of the rates posted for 1951-60."
IV. Evaluation of Official Soviet Statistics
The accuracy of the CIA index of agricultural output
ultimately depends on the reliability of the Soviet
statistics used to construct it. Western observers have
long criticized Soviet agricultural statistics for being
unavailable, inaccurate, inconsistent over time, or not
comparable with Western measures of farm output.
In constructing the CIA index of Soviet agricultural
production, we have made some adjustments to com-
pensate for these deficiencies in Soviet statistics.
A. Availability
Availability of Soviet statistics is a broader problem
than the mere scarcity of data on physical output of
commodities. Data on commodity use are also scarce
as are the definitions needed to interpret some of the
published statistics correctly. The reliability of the
2� Poor weather in 1979 depressed crop growth and thus growth in
total agricultural output. If the comparisons were for the period
1971-78, crop output would have grown at an average annual rate
of 1.9 percent, and net output at 1.7 percent per year.
CIA index is affected more by the absence of statis-
tics on the use of farm products for seed, feed, and the
like than by a shortage of output data. Although
troublesome shortages of production data still exist,
more utilization data and definitional material have
become available and the accuracy of statistical re-
porting may have improved somewhat.
Earlier, Western investigators puzzled, for example,
over whether milk output statistics were recorded in
physical weight or converted to standardized butterfat
content. How milk fed to calves was reported in
output statistics was also ambiguous." Definitional
material now available explicitly states that gross
output of milk is in physical weight, while procure-
ment statistics are in terms of standardized butterfat
content." The issue of milk fed to calves has also been
clarified: milk sucked directly by calves is excluded
" D. Gale Johnson and Arcadius Kahan, "Soviet Agriculture:
Structure and Growth," Comparisons of the United States and
Soviet Economics, U. S. Congress Joint Economic Committee,
Washington, D. C., 1959. Nancy Nimitz also discussed this issue.
See RM 2326, Soviet Statistics on Meat and Milk Output: A Note
on Their Comparability Over Time, Rand Corporation, February,
1959.
" Z. G. Tresorukova, Tovarnaya produktsiya sel'skogo kho-
zyaystva, Moscow, 1974, p. 103.
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from gross output. Milk fed by other means is includ-
ed." Part of the problem of understanding milk,
statistics remains, however, because a large share�
nearly 40 percent�of milk output is not marketed
and must be estimated from survey data. Moreover,
much of the data on milk marketings is a calculated
milk equivalent of marketed cream. Mistakes in the
conversion factor could result in erroneous figures for
total milk output.
Production data used in the CIA index for most
commodities are the official Soviet gross output fig-
ures, with some surrogates. In the case of vegetables,
the USSR publishes only a single figure for total
output of vegetables. Production of individual types of
vegetables must be estimated by applying the percent-
age distribution of state vegetable procurements to the
figure for total output. For sugarbeets, tobacco, mak-
horka, and tea, official procurement statistics provide
a reasonably reliable measure of net output. We
assume home consumption of these products to be a
very small share of total output.
Although scattered statistics on the use of agricultural
commodities have become available, the CIA index
must incorporate a number of estimates of seed, feed,
and waste in order to have continuous series. Seed
estimates are based on officially "normed" seeding
rates which may well differ from the true rates.
Statistics on waste of agricultural commodities are
especially scarce." Ideally an index measuring agri-
cultural output should incorporate waste estimates for
grain, sunflower seed, potatoes, fruits, vegetables, and
eggs. Although the Soviet press often reports exam-
ples of high loss rates for these commodities, the data
are so incomplete that the index only deducts waste
from production of grain and sunflower seed. Output
of other commodities is therefore overstated. How-
ever, to the extent that the share of gross output
wasted remains roughly the same over time, the
failure to make waste adjustments will not affect
trends.
" Selkhoz 1971, p. 685; A. M. Bryanskiy, Statistika zhivotno-
vodstva, Moscow, 1956, p. 122; V. Starovskiy, Vest stat, no. 4,
1961, p. 105.
" Waste is broadly defined to include extraneous matter, damaged
output, and losses in handling as well as excess moisture (that is,
moisture above a standard level). Waste therefore can include
usable product. Broken kernels, for example, in grain would be
classified as waste, but would also be usable.
Estimates of agricultural commodities fed to livestock
also suffer from lack of data. The CIA index deducts
from gross output estimates of the grain, potatoes,
vegetables, and whole milk used for feed. The release
to a USDA feed-livestock delegation to the USSR in
1971 of data on quantities of concentrates by type fed
to livestock simplified the task of estimating grain
fed." Other products fed, however, must be estimated
using commodity balances that attempt to reconcile
Output statistics with estimates of utilization. For
potatoes, however, statistics on utilization are often
inconsistent so that a satisfactory independent bal-
ance cannot be constructed. For example, for some
years, the sum of estimated uses of potatoes for seed,
feed, and industrial purposes exceeds total production
as reported in statistical handbooks. (See appendix C.)
B. Accuracy
The accuracy of Soviet agricultural statistics has been
debated by Western scholars for decades." Inac-
curacy is believed to result in part from reporting
errors and in part from deliberate falsification. De-
spite the extensive writing on the shortcomings of
Soviet agricultural statistics, the evidence is still
ambiguous concerning the degree of accuracy of
published official series.
" The data were published in USDA, ERS Foreign 355, Livestock-
Feed Balances for the USSR, (undated). Grain is the major
component (roughly 85 percent) of concentrated feed fed in the
USSR. Concentrates are low in fiber and high in total digestible
nutrients. Aside from grain, concentrates include milling byprod-
ucts, oilseed meal, and alfalfa meal. Part of the grain is fed as a
component of mixed feed, while the remainder is fed "straight."
" A complete review of the debate is beyond the scope of this paper.
The most important sources of the last 40 years begin with Naum
Jasny's work in the 1940s, and continue with writings by Kahan,
Volin, and Richter in the 1960s. Finally, in 1972, a volume dealing
with Soviet economic statistics was published containing three
chapters on agricultural statistics. See Naum Jasny, The Socialized
Agriculture of the USSR, Stanford University Press, Stanford,
California, 1949; Naum Jasny, "Interpreting Soviet Statistics,"
Soviet Survey, October-December, 1958, p. 9.; Naum Jasny,
"Some Thoughts on Soviet Statistics: An Evaluation," Internation-
al Affairs, no. 1, 1959, p. 53.; Lazar Volin, "Agricultural Statistics
in Soviet Russia," The American Statistician, April-May and
Juse-July issues, 1953.; Luba 0. Richter, "Some Remarks on
Soviet Agricultural Statistics," The American Statistician, June,
1961; Arcadius Kahan, "Soviet Statistics of Agricultural Output,"
Soviet Agricultural and Peasant ?affairs (Roy Laird, ed.), Universi-
ty of Kansas Press, Lawrence, Kansas, 1963.; Luba 0. Richter,
"Commentary" (on Arcadius Kahan's article), p. 165.; V.G. Treml
and J.P. Hardt, eds., Soviet Economic Statistics, Duke University
Press, Durham, N.C., 1972. See the chapters by Philip M. Raup,
Eberhard Schinke, and Karl-Eugen Wadekin, all dealing with the
validity of Soviet agricultural statistics.
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Western scholars generally agree, however, that inac-
curacy varies widely over time and affects some
statistical series more than others. Political pressure
in the Stalin and Khrushchev eras led to falsification
of output data. The expansion and improvement in the
statistical reporting system that began in the early
1960s may have resulted in more accurate data in
recent years. Even today, however, data for politically
sensitive commodities such as grain are subject to
more manipulation than data for less sensitive pro-
ducts. The prevailing Western opinion still is that
reasonably accurate results are obtained using Soviet
agricultural statistics if necessary adjustments and
cross-checks of the data are made and if the supplied
definitions are carefully read."
Soviet writers often paint a more dismal picture of the
reliability of their official statistics. Khrushchev stat-
ed that "figures for average yield (of grain) which you
read in the press these days reflect wishful thinking
rather than reality." 28 He also said "unless we put
things in order, our plans will be fulfilled statistically,
but we will still be short of food." " More recently a
Soviet emigre characterized the manipulation of Sovi-
et agricultural statistics as follows. "Soviet hens lay a
certain percentage more eggs each year but with one
biological peculiarity. The annual increase in egg
laying begins only with the advent to power of the
durrent rulers.'"�
While we cannot pinpoint the degree of unreliability
in Soviet statistics, we can identify those statistical
series that are most unreliable. The larger the share of
output that originates in the private sector, for exam-
ple, the more error is likely to occur. Private sector
output is estimated by the Central Statistical Admin-
istration from a sample survey of collective farm
families. Data are collected by schedule takers who
visit each family not less than two times a month.
" Karl-Eugen Wadekin, "Soviet Agricultural Statistics: Summary
and Assessment," in Treml and Hardt, p. 282.
" N. S. Khrushchev, Khrushchev Remembers: The Last Testament,
(Strobe Talbott, ed.), Little, Brown and Co., Boston, Toronto, 1974,
p. 131.
" Quoted from the New York Times report on January 15, 1961 (p.
28) of the 1961 Party Plenum.
" Lev Navrozov, "What the CIA Knows About Russia," Commen-
tary, September, 1978, p. 51.
Efforts are made to choose "representative" families,
but the survey embraces only 1.5 to 2 percent of
collective farm families. The following tabulation
shows the percentage of gross output of major pro-
ducts produced by the private sector in 1979:
Grain
1.0
Potatoes
59.0
Cotton
0
Meat
30.0
Sugarbeets
0
Milk
29.0
Sunflower seed
2.0
Eggs
33.0
Vegetables
31.0
Wool
19.0
The figures suggest that the livestock sector is more
affected than the crop sector by inaccuracies in
estimates of private sector production. One Western
writer on Soviet statistics concludes that the degree of
error in these statistics is difficult to assess without
more detail on the sample coverage. We can only be
aware that such error exists.'
Socialized sector output statistics are derived from the
annual reports of farms. These reports are based on an
elaborate accounting system that is said to incorpo-
rate cross-checks to prevent error and falsification.
Such a system should provide accurate statistics, but
failure to follow prescribed practice and shortages of
qualified statisticians and bookkeepers introduce an
element of error at the initial stage. Moreover, farms
have no incentive to correct for waste because reduc-
tions in gross output entail more difficulty in plan
fulfillment and higher unit costs, whereas success
requires high output and low unit cost.
For example, farms frequently fail to weigh their
output accurately. Truck scales are in short supply
and often faulty. Grain output is thus often estimated
according to the fullness of the combine hopper,
although it is supposed to be weighed prior to record-
ing in output accounts. For potatoes and vegetables,
output estimates are haphazard. Potatoes are fre-
quently stored in the fields in pits or piles. The weight
of output is determined according to the dimensions of
" Eberhard Schinke, "Soviet Agricultural Statistics," in Treml and
Hardt, p. 244.
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the pile and the actual weight of one cubic meter of
output. Requirements for weighing vegetables are
relaxed at the peak of the harvest, and the quantity of
vegetables is measured according to the number of
units, bunches, or basketsfull brought from the field.
Later, these are converted to kilograms according to
the actual weight of a sample of the produce."
According to one Soviet source, on vegetable farms
where harvested area is large and hundreds of workers
are involved, it is impossible to carry out even this
measuring of vegetable output. The first accurate
weighing is done only when the vegetables are sold."
Deliberate falsification of output statistics is another
source of inaccuracy that is very difficult to evaluate.
There is ample evidence from Soviet sources suggest-
ing that in the Khrushchev era ambitious agricultural
campaigns and unrealistic output targets led many
officials to inflate output statistics. Soviet officials
claim that falsification is less now than before the
1961 decree that imposed prison sentences for falsifi-
cation of data." Although we tend to believe that
instances of deliberate falsification are probably less
, frequent now than in earlier periods, references to
statistical malpractice occur periodically. Farms still
have incentives to understate one year's production in
order to reduce plan obligations in the following year
or to obtain permission to curtail production of an
unprofitable commodity. In 1978 a resolution of the
Georgian Central Committee cited frequent cases of
padding, underreporting, and other gross "distor-
tions" in overall statistical reporting in the republic.
Over 3,800 statistical checks were conducted by state
statistical organizations; almost one third of the re-
cords inspected were found to have some type of
deliberate misrepresentation." The First Secretary of
the Tadzhik SSR recently criticized state and party
organs in the republic for insufficient implementation
of the 1961 resolution against fraudulent reporting.
He cited false reporting of statistics on sown area,
production, sales, number of cattle, animal disease
rates, and other statistics.36
" M. Z. Pizengol'ts, Bukhgalterskiy uchet v sel'skom khozyaystve,
Moscow, 1974, pp. 111-112.
" Uchet ifinansy v kolkhozakh i sovkhOzakh, no. 10, 1979, p. 16.
Fletcher Pope, Collecting Agricultural Statistics in the Soviet
Union, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural
Report No. 112, November 1975, P. 15.
" Zarya vostoka, 4 June 1978, p. 1. Not all of the instances cited
refer to agricultural reporting.
Kommunist Tadzhikistana, 27 March 1979, p. 2.
Involvement of several ministries in statistics on mar-
keted commodities may offer some constraints to
falsification of those data. Present accounting practice
particularly provides opportunities for false reporting
of commodities which remain on the farm after sales
or are produced solely for farm use, such as animal
feed. In 1979, both the Georgian Central Committee
and the First Secretary of Azerbaydzhan publicly
denounced falsely inflated reports of fodder produc-
tion in their republics." Milk production can be
inflated by claiming that nonexistent output was fed
to livestock. Farms have been known to purchase
output from individuals or on collective farm markets
and to credit the amount to farm production."
Error in and falsification of agricultural statistics
probably vary greatly among regions and from year to
year. Because references to the subject are scarce and
the extent to which it occurs cannot be determined,
the impact on output statistics cannot be quantified.
We can only conclude that falsification probably
causes some upward bias in the level of output figures
and that the degree of bias may not be the same for
every year. As a result, the net effect over time, in the
context of a trend value, remains unclear.
C. Lack of Consistency Over Time
Since 1950 a number of Soviet agricultural statistics
series have undergone definitional changes without
corresponding adjustments to published data. Be-
tween 1939 and 1953, Soviet grain crops were meas-
ured in terms of so-called "biological" output per
hectare. These were estimates based on samples of the
crop as the ripe grain stood in the field and did not
take into account losses of grain prior to and during
" Zarya vostoka, 1 June 1979, p. 1 and Bakinskiy rabochiy, 25
July 19'19,p. I.
" Even procurement statistics have been doctored, although these
have always been considered more reliable than output statistics
(J.W. Willett,'"The Recent Record in Agricultural Production,"
Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, US Congress, Joint Eco-
nomic Committee, Washington, D.C., 1962, pp. 96-98). Instances
of collusion among farm officials, state procurement agents, and
inspection officials have been reported (Zakupki sel'skokhozyayst-
vennykh produktov, no. 2, 1978). Farms, Mr example, have been
credited with fictitious deliveries of agricultural products to pro-
curement agencies. Zakupki sel'skokhozyaystvennykh productov,
no. 10, 1975, reports such fraudulent transactions in the Ukraine,
Lithuania, and Belorussia.
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harvesting. The "bunker weight" " yield of the crop
(that is, the grain as it weighed directly after combin-
ing before preliminary cleaning and drying and before
handling and transportation losses occur), is usually
below the biological yield. Similarly, the clean, dry,
standard-weight portion of the crop is usually less
than the bunker weight. In 1954, the bunker weight
concept was adopted for official grain output statis-
tics. However, bunker weight statistics for the 1955-
58 period and output data for 1950-54 restated in
bunker weight were not published until December
1958.� In addition, in 1958 the Central Statistical
Administration published instructions for estimating
the grain crop. These instructions were never publicly
disseminated, but are believed to represent an alter-..
ation in the bunker weight measuring system adopted
only four years earlier.
Published yield statistics suggest that bunker weight
grain output statistics before and after 1958 are
inconsistent. During 1958-62, the average yield of
grain is reported to have increased to 10.9 centners
per hectare�an increase in average annual yields of
27 percent over 1954-57. Although grain output in
pre-1958 statistics probably was understated by offi-
cial manipulation of the data, the jump in yields that
occurred in 1958 appears to be at least partly due to a
change in statistical methodology that was never
explained.'
To test the consistency of official grain statistics
before and after 1958, official production data for
1950-62 were compared with output data estimated
from weather data, seeding and harvesting reports,
procurement data, statements by Soviet officials, and
the like." The comparison in table 4 of estimated and
"Soviet statistical handbooks use the term "gross harvest" (valovoy
sbor). Statistical handbooks prior to 1963 contained the phrase
"barn yield" (ambarniy urozhay) in parenthesis, but later issues
omit the reference to barn yield.
4� The USSR never published details of the conversion of biological
yield data to bunker weight for pre-1954 data. One Soviet publica-
tion stated that annual reports of farms were the basis for
recalculating yields. Farms had collected bunker weight data for
1950-54 and earlier. (N.N. Zhivilin, Sovremennaya organizatsiya
statistiki zemledeliya. Moscow, 1960, P. 102.)
" For a complete discussion of the 1958 change in grain statistics,
see CIA/RR ER 64-33, Production of Grain in the USSR,
October, 1964, p. 19-22.
41 Ibid., p. 15-17.
actual crops in 1950-1962 shows that for 1950-54,
estimated production is equal to or larger than offi-
cially reported output. After 1958, however, official
production exceeds our estimates by a large margin.
The comparison suggests that either 1950-54 grain
output statistics are deliberately understated or that
statistics following 1958 are exaggerated.'
Our grain balance calculations, which begin in detail
in 1960, indicate that grain output as shown in official
statistics for 1960-62 are reasonably consistent with
the sum of grain uses estimated on a bunker weight
basis." We tend to accept the hypothesis, therefore,
that grain statistics for 1950-54 (bunker weight) are
deliberately understated. We attempt to compensate
for this understatement by making no deduction from
official data for waste and losses in 1950-54. For
other years a weather-related discount is used to
eliminate excess moisture and waste. These estimates
and a full discussion of grain waste are in section V.
below.
The treatment of corn in official Soviet grain statistics
has also changed. Before 1955, immature corn (in the
milky-waxy stage of ripeness) was included in statis-
tics for grain. Between 1955 and 1962, Soviet statisti-
cal handbooks reported totals for grain output with
and without immature corn.' Since then, farms have
accounted separately for fully ripe corn and corn in
the milky-waxy stage of ripeness. Even so, corn
statistics are still not entirely consistent with the
bunker weight measure for other grain crops. Ripe
corn is converted to grain according to the average
yield of grain from the cobs as measured by threshing
of samples and is expressed in terms of a standard
" The differences in 1955 and 1957 are small but the change in sign
from negative to positive indicates some change in reporting or a
sudden improvement in agrotechnology. The comparatively large
discrepancy in 1956 is attributed to excessive postharvest losses
resulting from inadequate transportation and storage facilities in
the new lands areas to handle the bumper crop produced there.
4� CIA/A (ER) 75-68 The Soviet Grain Balance, 1960-73 Septem-
ber 1975, p. 24.
'To make this calculation total corn output was stated in terms of
dry corn equivalent. From this total, output of fully ripe corn was
subtracted. The remainder was the dry corn equivalent of immature
corn. This figure was subtracted from total grain output to derive
total output excluding immature corn. The grain equivalent of
immature corn was apparently not a component of total grain
output prior to 1954 (Narkhoz, 1962 p. 268).
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Table 4
Comparison of Official and Estimated Grain Output,
1950-62 a
Grain Production b
(million metric tons)
Official Data
Excess of
Officially
Reported Output
Estimated Over Estimated
Production
(percent)
1950
81
85
�4.7
1951
79 ,
80
�1.2
1952
92
92
0.0
1953
82
83
�1.2
1954
86
87
�1.1
1955
107
103
3.9
1956
128
115
11.3
1957
105
100
5.0
1958
141
125
12.8
1959
126
100
26.0
1960
134
100
34.0
1961
138
115
20.0
1962
148
115
28.7
a CIA/RR ER 64-33, Production of Grain in the USSR, October
1964, p.16.
b These statistics include the grain equivalent of corn harvested in an
immature stage which is no longer included in Soviet statistics on
grain production.
moisture content of 22 percent.' Moisture content of
other bunker weight grains varies widely, depending
on harvesting conditions as well as degree of ripeness.
No aggregated data on moisture content at the time
of harvest are published.
Meat statistics have become more inclusive over time.
Between the 1920s and 1940s the definition of meat
was expanded from beef, veal, pork, and mutton to
include poultry, rabbit, and fat from all types of
animals. By 1954, edible offal had been added to the
E.G. Dolgushevskiy and A. G. Kiiristich, Serskokhozyaystven-
naya statistika s osnovami ekonomicheskoy statistiki, Moscow,
1976, p. 94. Reporting corn in a standard 22 percent moisture
content is similar to a bunker weight concept inasmuch as 22
percent is the upper limit of moisture at which husked ears can be
stored in slatted cribs where they will -dry by spring to the 14-15
percent moisture needed for safe warm-weather storage.
definition of meat." Approximately in 1956, the defi-
nition of meat was expanded again to include horse,
camel, and other minor meats." Published data are
available from 1950 covering the broader definition of
output.
In 1965, the USSR revised its method of reporting the
size of livestock herds. While this did not result in
definitional changes, it may have caused statistics for
subsequent years to be less accurate than earlier ones.
Prior to 1965, the annual census of livestock on I
January was taken by enumerators who visited social-
ized farms during the first weeks of January. In 1965
the livestock census was discontinued. Herd numbers
for 1 January are now derived from the monthly and
quarterly livestock reports submitted by these farms
to the Central Statistical Administration. The change
in procedure was ascribed to the improved quality of
farm bookkeeping and to the increasing share of
livestock in the socialized sector. Numbers of pri-
vately owned livestock on 1 January are taken from
accounting records of rural councils." As in the pre-
1965 period, local statistical offices spotcheck private
sector livestock reporting by surveying 10 to 15
percent of households with privately owned holdings.
D. Comparability with Western Statistics
Soviet agricultural output statistics are often not
directly comparable with those used to measure agri-
cultural output in the West. Coverage is frequently
broader and the quality of the Soviet product is often
lower than that of Western counterparts. This lack of
comparability clearly affects comparisons of levels of
output and can complicate comparisons of growth in
agricultural output over time. International compari-
sons overstate the relative position of the USSR unless
"Offal is defined in footnote 10.
" For a complete discussion of these statistical revisions, see Nancy
Nimitz, Soviet Statistics of Meat and Milk Output: A Note on
Their Comparability Over Time, RM 2326, the Rand Corp.,
February, 1959.
aural councils (soviets) are the local administrative agencies of
the central government. Certain agricultural matters are included
in their administrative responsibility for local trade and industry.
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adjustments such as those using ruble-dollar conver-
sion ratios are made to compensate for the lower
quality of Soviet output."
Lack of quality comparability probably poses less of a
problem for comparisons of growth of agricultural
output than it does for comparisons of levels of output.
Growth comparisons are affected, however, if non-
comparable Western and Soviet data are used to
construct price weights and component indexes of
overall indexes of farm output. If relative prices for
agricultural products in both countries do not reflect
production tradeoffs (marginal rates of transforma-
tion), then the validity of growth comparisons is
reduced. For example, farm-gate prices in the US
index of agricultural production probably measure
marginal rates of transformation reasonably well;
Soviet prices, however, are set by the government with
little consideration of actual costs. In a US-USSR
comparison, however, the effect of these deficiencies
in Soviet prices on growth comparisons is small.' Of
course, relative prices can shift over time with the
result that growth comparisons would vary depending
on the base year chosen for indexes of output.
The relatively broader coverage of Soviet agricultural
statistics on meat production is another example
affecting weights and therefore comparisons of
growth. Soviet statistics include meat from rabbits,
horses, deer, camels, and so on, which few Western
countries include. In a US-USSR comparison Soviet
meat output is not seriously overstated because these
quantities are small in the USSR and even smaller in
the United States. A more serious source of difference
in the weights is the inclusion of edible offal and
US-USSR comparisons of agricultural output are discussed in
Douglas Whitehouse and Joseph F. Havelka, "Comparison of Farm
Output in the US and the USSR, 1950-1971," Soviet Economic
Prospects for the Seventies, Joint Economic Committee, US Con-
gress, Washington, D. C., 1973, p. 340.
"To test the effect on the index of deficiencies in Soviet prices, we
substituted cost of production figures in 1970 (sebestoimost' from
,Selkhoz /97/) for 1970 average realized prices. The substitution
slowed growth in crop production by one tenth of one percent.
Livestock output growth accelerated by two tenths of one percent
for the 1951-78 period as a whole. While official Soviet cost data
have major deficiencies (for example, a return on land and interest
charges on capital are not included) they are probably closer to
marginal rates of transformation than average realized prices.
slaughter fat in Soviet meat production. The Soviet
definition of slaughter weight includes internal and
subcutaneous fat which, for example, can add 10
percent or more to the weight of a beef carcass."
Without some adjustment, the structure of Soviet
agricultural output would give meat production too
heavy a weight relative to the weight of meat in the
US output. For comparisons therefore, meat output in
both countries is measured on a liveweight basis to
improve comparability of definitions.
Growth comparisons are also affected by changes in
product quality over time. An index based on physical
production understates real growth in output if qual-
ity has improved simultaneously. International com-
parisons of growth in agricultural output assume
constant quality although the assumption may be
unwarranted. Evidence suggests some improvement in
the quality of Soviet livestock products, especially
beef, between 1950 and 1978. Soviet meat animals
have more meat on the bone than formerly, and the
quality of milk and eggs has improved somewhat.
Furthermore, the oil content of sunflower seed has
risen. In theory, indexes of output of these commod-
ities could be adjusted for quality to improve growth
comparisons, although such an adjustment would be
difficult to construct in practice. In the case of US-
USSR comparisons of growth over time, the bias
introduced by shifting quality probably is small be-
cause improvement in quality of US products, par-
ticularly pork, has also occurred.
V. Deductions for Waste.
A. The Nature of the Problem
Soviet gross output statistics for many agricultural
commodities are inflated by waste." Grain output
statistics, for example, measure the harvest prior to
any cleaning and drying. In the USSR, grain harvest-
ing procedures and weather patterns tend to result in
unusual amounts of extraneous matter being included
in gross output. Excess moisture, damaged kernels,
" Sel'skokhozyaystvennaya entsiklopediya, Vol. I, Moscow, 1969,
p. 693.
"See footnote 24.
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and extraneous matter not found in large quantity in
harvested grain in most countries are counted as grain
output in the USSR. Other commodities affected are
potatoes, sugarbeets, fruits and vegetables, sunflower
seed, and eggs." Although waste included in Soviet
statistics is an important difference between US and
Soviet agricultural statistics, deducting waste is not
merely a matter of improving comparability. Waste
must be deducted from gross output because it is not
included in that part of output available for sale and
home consumption. Furthermore, procurement prices
apply to output on a "standard" basis, that is, net of
excess moisture and trash. The CIA index deducts
only for waste and losses in grain and sunflower seed.
Potatoes, fruits, vegetables, and eggs are not dis-
counted because no consistent methodology or data
eould be developed to remove waste from these com-
modities although Soviet sources claim that losses of
these commodities are significant. In the case of
sugarbeets, we use procurements as a surrogate for
output data. Procurement statistics are expressed in
standard weight which, by Soviet definition, excludes
waste." Nevertheless, Soviet sources suggest that
losses of potatoes, vegetables, fruits, and sugarbeets
are significant.
Losses of agricultural output occur at several stages in
the production and marketing process. Not all are
relevant for measuring net output. Harvesting losses
consist of output left in the field at harvest time or lost
in transporting the harvested output to the point of
weighing and recording. These amounts are never
recorded as gross output and therefore need not be
deducted; they represent losses of potential output
rather than actual output.
The second stage of losses, which should be deducted
from reported output, is that output rendered either
totally unusable or unusable in part by weather
conditions (rain, frost, snow), by insect or disease
5" Soviet agricultural periodicals and monographs frequently refer
to losses of these commodities. See for example, Ek selkhoz, no. 4,
1979, pp. 60-66.; Ek selkhoz, no. 1, 1978, p. 32.; Sel'skaya zhizn,
13 September 1972, p. 2.; Plan khoz, no. 7, 1978, pp. 44-55.; and
N.M. Bashkirev, Organizatsiya proizvodstva, zagotovok i povy-
sheniye kachestva yaits v ptitsevodcheskikh ob'yedineniyakh, Mos-
cow, 1979.
" Selkhoz 1971, p.682.
damage, or by damage in harvesting. Combine har-
vesting of potatoes, for example, reportedly damages
30 to 40 percent of output." Only part of the damaged
product would be completely unusable; much would
be usable as feed. Reported output should also be
reduced by the amount of extraneous matter (weeds,
stones, dirt, and so on) that is mixed with the har-
vested crop at the time of weighing and recording.
Transportation losses incurred in moving the product
from the point of weighing and recording to initial
storage should also be deducted.
Storage losses, primarily spoilage or pest damage in
storage facilities, are not relevant for purposes of
calculating net output. Once the crop has been har-
vested, cleaned, and initially stored, it is theoretically
available for use on the farm, for processing, or for
export. Subsequent losses in storage and shipping
need not be deducted, although these are occasionally
very large. Losses of potatoes, for example, in storage
after harvesting have been estimated at 10 to 25
percent."
B. Calculation of Waste in Sunflower Seed and Grain
The CIA index of Soviet agricultural production
makes an 8 percent discount for sunflower seed waste
and a fluctuating discount for grain waste. Our
estimate of sunflower seed waste is based on a Soviet
source that cited the results of calculations for 1958.
According to the author, the yield of sunflower seed
after cleaning was 8 to 8.5 percent below the gross
crop." No subsequent comparable data have been
found."
The allowance for grain waste is based on the premise
that the level of waste fluctuates primarily according
to the amount of precipitation during the two-month
" Ibid.
37 Ek selkhoz, no. 11, 1979, p. 38.
" Ek selkhoz, no. 6, 1959, p. 32.
In the only other reference found, the author claimed that the
yield after cleaning was 6 percent below the gross harvest in 1970
and 1971. We have not modified our discount because the deriva-
tion of these percentages is unclear. The tabulation in which they
appear includes production statistics that agree with official data.
Sales and procurement statistics in the tabulation differ from those
published elsewhere. Tresorukova, op. cit.,p. 53.
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period immediately preceding and during harvest.'
Wet harvesting conditions tend to raise moisture
content of harvested grain to levels above internation-
ally accepted standards. Excess moisture inflates
bunker weight output statistics and increases chances
of subsequent losses from spoilage. Although Soviet
postharvest cleaning and drying is intended to restore,
wet grain to full value, the wetter the harvesting
conditions, the more difficult this becomes. Mishan-
� dled wet grain may be grossly damaged or entirely
_ _ _
spoiled for one or more of its intended uses. For the
fall-sown winter grains, the months are June and July,
and for spring grain, August and September. For each
year in the index, the periods are categorized by
degree of "wetness": very dry, dry, normal, wet, and
very wet according to the average number of millime-
ters of rainfall received, as follows: 61
Spring Wheat Winter Wheat
Very wet
Wet
Over 45.8 Over 76.3
40.5 - 45.7 65.3 - 76.2
Normal 35.3 -40.4 53.8 - 65.2
Dry 29.6- 35.2 42.3 - 53.7
Very dry Below 29.5 Below 42.2
Each moisture category, in turn, is assigned a percent-
age grain discount; a discount of 11 percent is adopted
for years of normal precipitation.' We arbitrarily
6� The theory that variation from average precipitation during
harvesting is the main determinant of moisture and foreign matter
in harvested grain was set forth in U.S. Department of Agriculture,
,ERS, Methodology for Estimating Variations in Soviet Bunker
Weight Grain Crops, 1975, (unpublished). Although the grain
discount also includes extraneous matter and unripe and damaged
kernels, no systematic separate methodology has been devised to
measure them. Excess moisture is believed to be the largest and
most variable component of waste with the greatest impact on
trends in output. Amounts of damaged kernels also fluctuate
widely, but they probably have a smaller impact on trends.
Precipitation data are compiled by the US Air Force. Mean
monthly precipitation data by oblast for each two-month period are
weighted by the respective sown area of spring and winter wheat.
" The average discount of 11 percent was derived indirectly from a
rough calculation based on quality (feed unit or nutritive value) of
concentrates fed on state and collective farms. (See A (ER) 75-68,
'pp. 13-15.) Because of the way the official series on concentrated
feed is constructed, much of the exaggeration in Soviet grain
production statistics resulting from excessive moisture, dirt, da-
maged kernels, weed seeds, and the like, (waste), appears in the data
on quantities of concentrates fed. Grain makes up roughly 85
percent of the total tonnage of concentrates fed (see ibid., p. 33).
Our hypothesis is based on the difference between a) the average
feed unit value of concentrates fed as derived from published Soviet
raise this figure to 13 percent for wet years and to 15
percent for very wet years. In the other direction, 11
percent is lowered to 9 percent for dry years and to 7
percent for very dry conditions. The discounts for
winter and spring grains are weighted together using
30 percent for winter grains and 70 percent for spring
grains. These weights reflect the approximate per-
centage of spring and winter grains in total output. 63
For 1950-59, weather related discounts must take into
account the fact that 1950-54 official output statistics
probably understate the actual crop. For 1950-54,
therefore, the weather-related discount is not ap-
plied.64 For 1955-59, the necessary monthly precipita-
tion data are not available. For this period, the 1960
weather-related discount is moved back using an
statistics (Selkhoz 1971, pp. 332-333) and b) an average feed unit
value derived from the quantities of grain by type available for feed
(from the grain balances) over the same years, 1961-70 pp. 25-29).
We assume the assortment of grain actually fed is the same as that
of estimated grain available for feed. When these tonnage figures
are converted to feed units using standard Soviet norms (see G. V.
Kulik, Spravochnik ekonomista kolkhoza i sovkhoza, Moscow,
1970, p. 538), the resulting average feed unit value is substantially
higher than the average derived from the published series. The ,
discrepancy�which we attribute to waste including higher mois-
ture�ranged from 12 percent to 21 percent over the 10-year period
for which the data were available. Because we assume the waste
level to be uniform for the entire crop on the supply side, the overall
discount rate must be smaller. In crop year 1967/68, for example,
the estimated waste in feed is 20 percent. The tonnage represents
about 8 percent of grain produced in that year. Quantities of waste
as shares of output ranged from 4.3 to 11.6 percent over the 10-year
period; the average was 8 percent which we adopted as an average
discount. To this we add a 3-percent allowance for losses in
transportation and handling (A (ER) 75-68, p. 18). Although in
theory subsequent losses of grain need not be applied for purposes
of estimating net output, they are included in order to be consistent
with our estimates of grain balances and grain fed.
" We recognize that equating these moisture categories with
specific waste levels implies a more precise and consistent relation-
ship between precipitation and grain waste than actually exists in
fact. To date, however, this is the most satisfactory, consistent
methodology developed to measure fluctuations in grain waste.
" Despite the presumed understatement in official Soviet grain
output statistics in those years, excess moisture and waste existed.
See, for example, the statement that waste, shrinkage in drying,
and postharvest losses amounted to 5.1 percent of 1953 gross grain
output in kolkhozes. (Al. Gozulov, Statistika sel'skogo kho-
zyaystva, Moscow, 1959, p. 450.) See also Nancy Nimitz, RM-
4127-PR, Soviet Government Grain Procurements, Dispositions,
and Stocks, 1940, 1945-63. Rand Corporation, November, 1964, p.
4. We omit the weather-related discount for these years in our
estimates of net grain output only to compensate for the understate-
ment in official statistics. We do not imply that these losses did not
exist or that farm statistical reports did not contain bunker weight
output data.
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index of discounts proposed by Arcadius Kahan. "
This results in discounts of official statistics that
resemble the discounts implied by the comparisons in
Table 4 of official and estimated output statistics. The
index of discounts is also consistent with the belief of
another writer that pre-1954 crop statistics are under-
stated and that the years 1954-57 require smaller
discounts than subsequent years." As Table 5 shows,
with the exception of 1956, discounts derived in this
manner are smaller for 1954-57 than for most other
years in the sertes.
Kahan uses a 6 percent discount for 1954, 7 percent
for 1955 and 1957, and 10 percent for 1956, 1958,
and 1959. These discounts suggest drier conditions in
1954, 1955, and 1957 than in 1956, 1958, and 1959,
and are supported by a recent Soviet article on
comparative precipitation levels in the major grain
areas of the USSR.' The article lists the incidence of
dry years in five major grain areas: European Russia,
Ukraine, the "Volga Valley," Western Siberia and
AltaS, kray, and Northern and Central Kazakhstan.
During the 1950s, over 80 percent of area sown to
grain was in the European USSR, the Ukraine, and
parts of the Volga Valley. In all three major regions,
1954 and 1957 are listed as "dry years"; 1955 is listed
as dry in the Volga Valley. On the other hand, 1956,
1958, and 1959 are listed as wet in two of the three
major.grain areas of the 1950s, indicating the need for
larger waste allowances.
The second factor in the grain discount is the adjust-
ment for crop size. Grain crops that are larger than
average strain Soviet capacity to harvest, transport,
clean, and dry the grain, especially when a large crop
coincides with rainy weather at harvest time. We
assume waste is larger under these conditions than
when small harvests and dry weather coincide, as in
1975. To adjust the discount for crop size, we derive
" See Kahan's article "Soviet Statistics of Agricultural Output,"
Soviet Agricultural and Peasant Affairs, (Roy Laird, ed.), Univer-
sity of Kansas Press, Lawrence, Kansas, 1963.
Luba 0. Richter, "Commentary" (on Arcadius Kahan's article),
!bid, p. 165.
" Yu. L. Rauner, lzvestiya akademii nauk SSSR, no. 6, 1976, pp.
37-54.
the percentage difference between the actual crop as
reported in Soviet sources, and the crop that would
have resulted under average conditions."
We use half of this percentage difference to adjust the
weather-related discount. In this manner we account
for that portion of the grain crop lost because of
inadequate harvesting and processing capacity. In
1973, for example 2.0 percent is added to the weather-
related discount to account for these losses. In 1975,
on the other hand, the crop was small enough to be
handled by existing capacity. In addition, the weather
was dry. Thus, 1.2 percent is subtracted from the
weather-related discount to account for minimum
losses in that year. Table 5 shows the composition of
the grain discount.
VI. Deductions for Seed and Livestock Feed
To measure agricultural output available for sale and
home consumption, gross agricultural production
should be reduced by the quantities of output used for
seeding crops, feeding livestock, and for hatching
poultry. The CIA index makes deductions for grain,
potatoes, vegetables, and whole milk fed to livestock,
eggs used for hatching, and quantities of grain and
potatoes used for seed. Sunflower seed used for seed is
not deducted because, according to seed norms, less
than 1 percent of the crop is used for seed. Appendix
C reports the methodological details and source refer-
ences for these estimates. In the following discussion
of seed and feed use, we are concerned with the
implications of the estimates and their reliability.
The trends in feed and seed use as a share of gross
output are shown in table 6. Annual averages are used
instead of data for individual years to smooth the
year-to-year fluctuations in harvest size. The table
shows seed use declining as a share of gross crop
" Grain crops that would have resulted under average conditions
(trend) are derived by first subtracting the moisture discount from
gross grain output and dividing by sown area to derive "clean"
yields. These yield figures are regressed against time to derive clean
yields that would have been obtained under average conditions.
Clean yields are multiplied by sown area and by 1.11 to derive an
"average" gross harvest with a normal waste content of 11 percent.
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Table 5
USSR: Estimated Waste and Losses
in the Gross Grain Harvest
Percent
Weather
Related
Crop Size
Adjustment
Total a
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
7.7
0.5
8.2
1956
10.8
1.0
11.8
1957
7.6
0.0
7.6
1958
10.1
1.4
11.5
1959
10.2
0.6
10.8
1960
9.8
0.2
10.0
1961
8.4
0.3
8.7
1962
7.6
0.0
7.6
1963
7.6
-1.1
6.5
1964
9.8
0.0
9.8
1965
7.6
-0.7
6.9
1966
8.2
0.5
8.7
1967
10.4
-0.2
10.2
1968
8.2
0.4
8.6
1969
13.0
-0.2
12.8
1970
13.8
1.1
14.9
1971
11.0
0.7
11.7
1972
9.6
-0.2
9.4
1973
14.4
2.0
16.4
1974
13.6
0.2
13.8
1975
9.0
-1.2
7.8
1976
13.0
0.7
13.7
1977
15.0
-0.4
14.6
1978
12.2
1.0
13.2
1979
12.4
-0.9
11.5
a Total is sum of columns 1 and 2.
output. The same trend is observed if seed is taken as
a share of only gross grain and potatoes. The trend
implies increased output per unit of seed.�
The reverse is true of intrasector use for livestock
output. The share of deductions in gross output
increases over time, even with hatching eggs removed
from the series. This is consistent with our observation
of increased use of grain for feed in recent years
without proportionate increases in livestock output.'
The increasing share of crop output used for feed also
reflects the shift toward sale and home consumption
of livestock products rather than direct consumption
of crops.
A. Grain and Potatoes Used for Seed
Estimating seed use is a relatively straightforward
process. Soviet data on sown area are multiplied by
seeding rate norms to derive quantities of seed needed
for grain and potatoes. We assume that actual seeding
rates approximate those norms prescribed by Soviet
guidelines for farm managers. The total includes area
sown to grain in the fall but subsequently damaged by
winterkill or used for winter and early spring grazing.
The estimate also allows for corn area harvested as
forage (silage, green feed, or dry fodder). Quantities
required for fall seeding of grain and for spring
seeding of grain and potatoes are deducted from gross
output of grain and potatoes in the given year to
derive net output. Gross grain output is first reduced
by the grain discount to eliminate waste. No
allowance is made for seeding of other crops.
" Because the evidence indicates little or no reduction in seeding
rates per hectare, nearly all the growth in output per unit of seed
results from rising yields per hectare. Average overall grain yields
for the three year period 1976-78 were 54'percent above the
average yield in 1950-72. For the most part, this reflects a
substantial increase in use of fertilizer on grain crops. For example,
measured in standard units, the quantity of fertilizer used on grain
increased from 2.2 million tons in 1960 to 14.6 million tons in 1970.
(See ER 77-10557, The Impact of Fertilizer on Soviet Grain
Output 1960-80, November 1977, p. 19.)
'� Not only has the absolute quantity of grain fed been increasing,
but since 1976, the share of feed units provided by concentrates,
largely grain, has been increasing. For the most part, this trend
reflects the failure of non-grain feed crops (silage, hay, etc.) to
increase at the same rate. (See ER 79-10057, USSR: Long-Term
Outlook for Grain Imports, January 1979, p. 19.) This trend was
intensified during 1978/79 when the USSR was severely affected -
by weather conditions that forced a further increase in the share of
grain being fed.
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Table 6
Intrasector Use of Agricultural Output,
Annual Averages, Selected Years
Million 1970 rubles
1977-79
1950-52
1959-61
1964-66
1969-71
Seed
Grain
2139.7
2478.2
2817.7
2624.4
2738.6
Potatoes
1818.7
1991.6
1841.4
1803.7
1525.8
Total
3958.4
4469.7
4659.1
4428.1
4264.4
Seed as a share of gross crop output
17.0
13.7
12.1
10.1
8.7
Feed and hatching eggs
Grain
1298.8
3400.0
3852.2
6071.6
9308.6
Potatoes
1350.3
2370.9
2251.2
2467.5
2436.0
Vegetables
25.3
145.7
186.8
117.2
193.2
Milk
908.1
1574.5
1679.1
2221.3
2234.4
Total feed
3582.6
7491.1
7969.3
10877.6
14172.2
Hatching eggs
35.3
108.7
94.2
175.0
324.4
Total intrasector use
3617.9
7599.8
8063.5
11052.6
14496.6
Intrasector use as a share
of gross livestock output
16.8
18.8
18.2
20.3
22.2
Shortcomings of the seed estimates center on the
seeding rates. We use a constant seeding rate for the
entire 1950-79 period whereas the actual rate prob-
ably has changed over time. Evidence indicates, fur-
thermore, that our seeding rates may be too low. One
Soviet source claims that 20 centners per hectare of
potatoes were seeded during 1962-65 and 25 centners
during 1967-69.7' We estimate potato seeding at 19
centners per hectare for all years. In the case of grain,,
a Soviet writer claims that seed use averaged 30.8
million tons per year during 1971-75." Our estimates
show average seed use of 26 million tons during the
period. The grain calculations may understate actual
use because the norms refer to 'first-class' seed, which Estimating feed fed to livestock poses many more
exceeds the quality of much seed grain." As of 1 problems than deriving estimates of seed use. The
January 1979, for example, only 71 percent of seed CIA index includes the value of feed produced and
used within agriculture such as hay, corn for silage,
Zakupki sel'skokhozyaystvennykh produktov, no. 3, 1973, p. 18. feed roots, and pasture feed in the value of livestock
72 Plan khoz, no. 3, 1979, p. 38. See also, Pravda Ukrainy, 15 July
1979, p. 2, which argues that farms incorrectly increase the norms output. Although it would be more correct to add
for seeding, and notes that increasing the norm does not make up their value to crop production and deduct it from
for poor soil preparation, poor use of fertilizer, and so on. Zakupki
sel'skozyaystvennykh produktov, no. 1, 1978, p. 6, implies that
during 1971-75, farms sowed from 22 to 37 million tons annually.
" First-class seed is seed with no more than 1 percent (by weight)
content of broken kernels and admixtures and with viability not less
than 95 percent.
for spring grain and pulse crops met standards for
first or second class seed." Presumably, the lower the
seed quality the more seed is required for a given area.
B. Estimates of Livestock Feed and Hatching Eggs
We estimate quantities of grain, potatoes, vegetables,
and whole milk fed to livestock. We do not estimate
quantities of skim milk fed for reasons discussed
below. Finally, although some fruit is fed to livestock
in the USSR-largely because of marketing prob-
lems-we make no estimates of the quantities because
of data limitations."
" /bid.
"Statements are limited to "farms every year are forced to send
millions of tons of fruit for feed" (Trud, 8 August 1967, p. 2); "as is
known, the larger the fruit harvest, the bigger the share fed to
cattle" (Plan khoz, no. 8, 1968, p. 59); and "a goodly share of fruit
is fed to livestock" (Literaturnaya gazeta, no. I, 1973, p. 10).
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livestock output along with other feeds produced in
the crop sector, this is a difficult, if not impossible,
task. Problems include lack of consistent and com-
plete production data, extensive waste�particularly
spoilage�of these products making it impossible to
know how much of each would actually be fed, and
the difficulty of deriving prices for products that to a
large extent are not sold in the USSR. In any case,
the index of total net output remains the same
whether hay and other forage crops are included in
livestock output or in output of the crop sector.
Grain. Estimates of grain fed to livestock are based on
the official Soviet series for concentrated feed fed to
livestock. According to the Soviet definition, concen-
trated feed includes grain, oilseed meals, dehydrated
alfalfa or other high quality forage, and grain milling
byproducts together with screenings and other ele-
ments of usable waste such as damaged kernels from
grain cleaning operations. Feeds of animal and syn-
thetic origin are not included. The concentrates series
is believed to reflect the excess moisture and waste
found in harvested grain, bunker weight.
To derive the grain component of concentrated feed,
we subtract oilseed meal, grass meal, and grain
milling byproducts from total concentrates. Conceptu-
ally, the remainder consists of grain as well as the
waste associated with the grain production series:6 To
remove waste elements from grain fed, we allocate 80
percent of the quantity of grain written off in the
" The residual may include small amounts of nongrain, nonoilseed
products which go into the production of mixed feed such as meat,
blood, and bone meals, fish meal, and vitamin and mineral
supplements as well as ground hay and other materials with low
feed energy value. Farms are required to report quantities of mixed
feed fed as one of the components of the concentrates group. It is
not known if the farm reduces the reported quantity of mixed feed
fed to conform with the strict definition of concentrates. To the
extent it does not, we are overstating the quantities of grain fed.
The degree cannot be large, however. In 1978, total production of
meat, blood, and bone meal was 475 thousand tons (Myasnaya
industriya SSSR, no. 3, 1979, p. 6); production of fish meal
averaged about 600 thousand tons during 1975-77 (information
exchanged under the US-USSR Agricultural Agreement. No data
for 1978 were transmitted.).
grain discount (see above) to feed use.77 In this way, we
estimate clean grain for feed that is compatible with
the definition of clean grain on the output side.
Although this procedure is arbitrary, it is consistent
with the apparent low overall quality of Soviet grain
used for feed. Estimates of grain fed for 1960 forward
fit fairly well into our grain balance calculations.78
Official data on concentrates fed for the 1950s,
however, are not available. Feed can be estimated by
assuming that all grain not allocated to seed, food,
industrial uses, and stocks is fed or by estimating the
quantities of grain required to produce the livestock
products and to maintain or increase herds in those
years:9 We chose the second method because grain
balance calculations show only small quantities avail-
able for livestock feed and stock changes in many
years of the 1950s. For several of these years, grain
balance residuals are below the apparent amount of
grain�along with standard norms of nongrain
feeds�required to produce the livestock output ob-
tained in those years. We have not reconciled these
inconsistencies except to note that grain fed estimates
for the 1950s are less reliable than those for later
years. We believe the feed series based on concen-
trates required to produce the output and to support
changes in herds leads to a more reliable measure of
the value of net livestock output in the 1950s than
does a series based on grain balance residuals.'
" We allocate the bulk of grain waste to feed because of the higher-
than-average storage losses as well as a lesser degree of cleaning
associated with grain for feed. Moreover, this would be expected
under Soviet accounting procedures. Soviet farms often clean and
dry drain that is to be marketed in order to avoid financial penalties
for excess moisture and other elements of waste. Grain left on
farms is not usually processed to the same extent.
" See A (ER) 75-68. The balances are updated in ER 79-10057,
USSR: Long-Term Outlook for Grain Imports, January 1979,
p. 15.
" The latter estimates are derived by multiplying the estimated
quantity of grain required per unit of output times the quantities of
livestock product produced annually in the 1950s. The estimates
also take into account feed necessary to support livestock inventory
change and to maintain horses. Soviet data are available on units of
concentrated feed required per unit of output. See, for example, N.
Burlakov, Ek selkhoz, no. 5, 1972, p. 36. We recognize that the
amount of concentrates required per unit of output is not constant
over time as implied by this methodology. Actual use of concen-
trates depends on quantities of other feeds available to substitute
for or complement the nutrient value of grains and other concen-
trates as well as the mix within concentrates. However, data are not
available to adjust for these fluctuations.
Grain balances for the 1950s are of necessity far more crude and
thus subject to larger error than those we have been able to develop
for 1960 forward.
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Estimated quantities of grain and potatoes used for
feed are lagged to be consistent with crop year data.
The harvest of a given year is assumed to provide one-
third of the feed used in that calendar year plus two-
thirds of feed used in the subsequent calendar year.
Although this assumption becomes less plausible in
years of sharp crop fluctuations, we do not alter these
shares over time.
Potatoes. Estimating potatoes fed to livestock presents
difficulties similar to those encountered in estimating
grain fed in the 1950s. In the balance, subtracting
seed, food, and industrial uses from reported produc-
tion leaves insufficient quantities for feed use in five
of the 11 years for which we have official Soviet
statistics on quantities of potatoes fed to livestock.
We believe that the data inconsistencies observed in
the potato balance are caused by inaccuracy in Soviet
potato statistics. Production statistics are subject to
an especially large margin of error because 60 percent
of potato output comes from private plots." Reporting
of the potato crop in the socialized sector also involves
estimation. After potatoes are harvested, they may
not be removed from the fields but stored in pits or
piles. In this case the weight of output is estimated by
taking the dimensions of the pile and determining the
weight of 1 cubic meter of stored potatoes. The
amount of dirt and leaves in the output is estimated
by weighing several samples before and after
cleaning."
The potato balance is distorted on the utilization side
by the fact that ungarnered potatoes left in the field
are consumed by livestock permitted to scavenge."
Potatoes fed in this way are likely to be included in
officially reported quantities of potatoes fed. This is
true of all pasture feed provided to livestock without
prior harvesting. The weight of "pasture feed" "
See above for discussion of statistics of private agricultural
output.
" M. Z. Pizengol'ts, Bukhgalterskiy uchet v sel'skom khozyaystve,
Moscow, 1974, pp. 111-112.
" V.K. Radostovets et al., Spravochnik bukhgaltera sovkhoza i
kolkhoza, Alma Ata, 1972, p. 31
"Pasture feed is broadly defined to include crop residues other than
grass for pasture. Ibid. p. 354. M.Z. Pizengol'ts et al.. Bukhgal-
terski uchet v sel'skokhozyaystvennyk predpriyatiyakh, Moscow,
1975, p. 94.
consumed is determined by the farm's chief agrono-
mist or zootechnician." The degree to which this
causes understatement in gross output is probably not
large."
The question of quality of the potato crop also
remains unresolved. According to the literature, large
losses of potato production from spoilage occur."
Earlier sources claim as much as one-fifth to one-
third of the potatoes received by retail trade turn out
to be unsaleable." The ranges in Soviet estimates of
potato spoilage indicate the difficulty of developing
any reasonable series of discounts over time. Any
adjustment would merely add an arbitrary calculation
without improving the measure. Moreover, applying
any discount would throw the balance further out of
line."
Vegetables and Whole Milk Soviet data on feeding
of vegetables to livestock are scarce; indeed, there are
no published data on total vegetables fed. Conse-
quently, our estimates have to be based on a crude
balance. The few data available report vegetable
feeding on state and collective farms only. Our vege-
table balance is, for most years, fairly consistent with
the few references available. Soviet statements such
as "12 percent of vegetables produced by collective
farms are fed by them," " and "1.8 million tons of
vegetables produced in the communal sector were
fed'"' are, as expected, below the quantities fed as
implied by the balance. The understatement is prob-
ably accounted for by vegetables fed by the private
" Ibid., p. 354.
" Raw potatoes are not particularly palatable. Chopping is recom-
mended to increase palatability for cattle and sheep and cooking is
recommended for hogs and poultry.
"See above for a discussion of waste in potatoes.
" Pravda, 25 August 1969, p. 2, Sovetskaya torgovlya, No. 9, 1971,
p. 15. Some of this waste is returned to farms and fed.
" Although not affecting our potato balance, another unresolved
question is the accounting for potatoes sold to procurement organi-
zations. Due to a lack of sufficient storage facilities a portion of
procured potatoes is left on farms for storage. Every year an
unknown part of this amount is used by farms themselves (Z. G.
Tresorukova, op. cit., Moscow, 1974, p. 56). If quantities used by
farms are not deducted from the earlier reported marketed output,
procurements would be exaggerated.
" L.T. Dageev, Podsobnyye promyshlenniye predpriyatiya v
skom khozyaystve, Moscow, 1976, p. 14.
9' Pravda, 6 August 1966, p. 2.
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sector which produces substantial quantities of vege-
tables and may well feed some of the surplus. Vegeta-
bles, however, are a small component of feed; error
here does not have a significant impact on the overall
index movement.'
Whole milk fed to livestock can be estimated with a
greater degree of confidence. Data for, whole milk fed
on state and collective farms were published for a
number of years. An occasional source has noted how
much whole milk is fed by the private sector, usually
in percentage terms. Finally, two sources have pro-
vided benchmark data on total quantities of whole
milk fed." Although estimates of whole milk fed can
be made with acceptable confidence, the problem of
accounting for skim milk fed remains. Roughly 60
percent of total milk production is purchased by the
state; about one-half of that is used for manufacture
of butter. While some of the resulting fluid skim milk
is dried, much of it is returned to farms for use as
feed." In a sense, this can be considered intrasector
use since the chief criterion determining prices paid to
farms for milk is butterfat content, not fluid quanti-
ties, and the prices paid by farms for the returned
skim milk are negligible." At any rate, we do not
include an estimate of skim milk fed, although an
average of 27.5 million tons of skim milk were
reported fed during 1961-70.96 Any resulting bias is
small; an arbitrary calculation incorporating an esti-
mate of skim milk fed had almost no effect on the
total estimated value of feed fed.
Hatching eggs. In addition to estimating feed used in
the production of livestock output, we also deduct for
hatching eggs. These eggs, which amount to about 5
percent of all eggs produced, are required for hatching
to produce poultry for meat and to increase poultry
flocks. Few official Soviet data are available on the
" To test the sensitivity of the index, the quantities of estimated
vegetables fed were arbitrarily doubled. The change in value of all
feed fed was negligible.
"See Appendix Table C-10.
"State farms, collective farms, and other state agricultural enter-
prises, selling milk-to the state, have the right to receive skim milk
according to norms set by the Councils of Ministers of the union
republics. These norms differ according to republic and to type of
farm. A.F. Bochalin and G.M. Rogozin, Spravochnik pa zakupkam
produktov zhivotnovodstva, Moscow, 1974, pp. 179-183.
"Farms are charged 10 rubles per ton. Ibid., p. 179.
"USDA, ERS Foreign 355, Feed Balances for the USSR,
(undated), p. 20.
number of eggs used for hatching. The most recent
Soviet statement, however, is consistent with our
estimates." Our estimate is based on the increase in
poultry flocks from year to year and the relationship
between poultry meat output and the number of birds
necessary to produce that quantity of meat. An
allowance is made for mortality in young chicks and
for eggs that fail to hatch. Hatching and mortality
rates can be estimated from Soviet sources." Al-
though the level of losses from both sources is higher
than in the United States," we assume it is reasonable
since the literature contains frequent references to
problems in poultry management.m Hatching eggs
are a relatively minor item in the index and errors
here are not significant. No attempt is made to
construct an egg balance to test the validity of the
estimates.
C. Testing the Estimates of Seed and Feed
We tested our estimates of seed and feed against the
Soviet input-output tables for 1966 and 1972. We
compared the shares of gross output going to seed and
feed use in our index with the shares shown by the
input-output tables.'" Because the Soviet tables meas-
ure gross output and value commodities produced and
used within the sector at cost '" some adjustments had
to be made to our index to achieve comparability. For
the years 1966 and 1972, we valued all seed and feed
produced in the crop sector at cost.'" Values at cost
are included in output and in totals for feed use. We
converted the CIA index of net crop production to a
" In May 1979, an official of the Ministry of Procurement stated
that the number of eggs used for incubation amounts to about 3
billion eggs for the USSR as a whole (Zhurnal(st, no. 5, 1979, pp.
41-43). Our estimate for 1978 is 3.2 billion.
"See I.N. Zamyslov, Ekonomicheskaya otsenka otrasley zhivotno-
rdstva, Moscow, 1973, p. 91; also, Spravochnik: promyshlennoye
ptitsevodstvo, Moscow, 1971, pp. 48-116.
"USDA, Agricultural Statistics 1978, Washington D.C., 1978, pp.
403, 414.
See, for example, Finansy SSSR, no. 11, 1973, p. 28. -
'Data in the 1966 and 1972 input-output tables were converted to
1970 prices using indexes developed by Vladimir Treml. (See V.G.
Treml, ed., Studies in Soviet Input-Output Analysis, Praeger
Publishers, New York, 1972, pp. 218, 219, 272.)
102 Yu. E. Gaabe et al., Statistika sel'skogo khozyaystva, Moscow,
1971, p. 228.
1" This calculation does not include milk used for feed or eggs for
hatching.
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gross basis by eliminating the discounts and seed
deductions from crop output. Gross livestock output is
derived by eliminating the feed deduction. We then
compared our index and the input-output tables for 1)
the share of gross crop output used for feed, 2) the
share of gross crop output used for seed, and 3) the
proportion of feed from the crop sector in the gross
value of livestock output. The results are summarized
below:
Share of gross crops used
for feed
Share of crops used for
seed
Crop-sector feed as a
share of gross livestock
output
Percent
1966
1972
Soviet
CIA
Soviet
CIA
28.3
16.7
23.7
20.5
8.8
6.8
9.6
6.8
23.9
12.7
19.7
12.6
The results of the comparison are consistent with
known differences between the Soviet and CIA in-
dexes, and suggest that our estimates of seed and feed
use are reasonable. Considering the different compo-
nents of the two indexes, the comparisons are fairly
close. The rise in the share of seed use between 1966
and 1972 in the Soviet data may reflect a rise in
seeding rates. We have already acknowledged that
our use of a constant seeding rate probably is not
accurate. Although both comparisons for feed shares
indicate that our index understates feed use relative to
Soviet measurements, the disparity between the
shares narrowed between 1966 and 1972. This result
is obtained partly because our crop index does not
include hay and other feed produced and used entirely
within agriculture. These feeds have increased more
slowly than grain, and are a declining share of feed
use. The share of grain, which is included in the CIA
index, has risen. We show a rising share of crop
output devoted to feed use and a constant share of
livestock output consisting of feed inputs. Soviet data,
on the other hand, show these shares dropping. How-
ever, this trend may be due to lack of comparability
between the 1966 and 1972 input-output tables.' It is
more likely that these shares remained constant or
rose between 1966 and 1972 than declined. In any
case these comparisons should be regarded as general
indications of the shares and not as precise measures.
Intertemporal comparisons of the shares are especially
tentative.
VII. Sensitivity Tests
To test the sensitivity of the index of Soviet agricul-
tural production to various estimating procedures, we
calculated several variants of the index by altering
quantities and price weights. In general, procedures
that raise the value of livestock sector output relative
to crops, should raise the growth rate of net agricul-
tural output, except in 1971-79 when growth in
livestock output slowed significantly. Overall growth
of farm output should drop when the relative share of
the crop sector is raised. In any event, the index is
generally insensitive to the tests we applied. None of
the modifications had a material effect on the growth
rates for the 1951-79 period as a whole.
The results of the tests are presented in tables 7 and 8
in terms of the changes in growth rates and in shares
of livestock products and crops in total output. To
rank the sensitivity tests in order of their effect on the
index, we calculated an average absolute percentage
difference to measure the deviation of agricultural
output under the sensitivity tests from the original
1" There is some evidence that the USSR's definition of sales by the
crop sector to animal husbandry underwent a change between
construction of the 1966 and the 1972 input-output tables. Sales by
the flour and bread sector to animal husbandry are inexplicably low
in the 1966 input-output table compared with the 1959 and 1972
tables. The hypothesis is that the crop sector sold material inputs
directly to animal husbandry in 1966 rather than to the flour and
bread sector for subsequent processing and resale to animal hus-
bandry as was the case in 1972. Research on this subject has not
been completed, but if the hypothesis proves correct, the shares for
gross crops used for feed and crop sector feed as a share of livestock
output as reflected in input-output tables are overstated in 1966
relative to 1972.
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index in 1970 prices.'" The average absolute percent-
age difference calculation provides an unambiguous
measure of the variation among the indexes. These
coefficients are shown in the last column of table 7.
A. Use of Alternative Discounts and Feed Values
In the first test, discounts for grain and sunflower
seeds were removed from production and from feed
use. In the second, output of these crops and quanti-
ties fed were discounted at a flat rate of 20 percent for
grain and 8 percent for sunflower seed. In the third
variant, additional discounts were made for potatoes
(10 percent), vegetables (15 percent), fruits (25 per-
cent), sugarbeets (7 percent), eggs (3 percent).'" Pota-
toes and vegetables fed were discounted by the same
percentages. The fourth and fifth tests affected live-
stock output directly. Feed was valued at cost of
production in 1970 rather than at average realized
prices for nonfeed uses on the assumption that most
crops fed to livestock are not of sufficiently high
quality to bring prices as high as average realized
prices. In the fourth test, prices applied to changes in
livestock inventory were adjusted each year for the
variations in weight per procured animal over time.'"
Major alterations in the discount for grain and sun-
flower seed and the addition of discounts for other
crops have little effect on the index of total net output.
The average absolute percentage difference in all
cases' is about 1 percent for total output. Large
1" Percentage difference (D) is calculated using indexes of output in
the following equation:
1 1979
D = �
30 t = 1950
CIA index in 1970 prices � variation
CIA index in 1970 prices
1" We adopted the 10 percent discount on potatoes used by Johnson
and Kahan in their index, although Soviet sources indicate it may
be too low. (D. Gale Johnson and Arcadius Kahan, "Soviet
Agriculture: Structure and Growth," Comparisons of the United
States and Soviet Economies, Joint Economic Committee, Con-
gress of the United States, Washington, D.C., 1959). The discounts
on vegetables, fruits, sugarbeets, and eggs are suggested by Soviet
sources.
1" The CIA index rests on the assumption that animals in inventory
are on average the same weight as those sold to procurement
organizations. This assumption probably is acceptable except for
very poor crop years the average weight of animals in inventory
would not necessarily correspond to the average weight of animals
sold.
changes can be made in the discount without chang-
ing trends in output growth. Removing the discounts
accelerates the growth of crop output slightly except
for 1971-79 and raises the share of crop output in
total agricultural production. Removing the discount
slows growth in livestock output, while the rate of
growth for total output remains virtually unchanged.
The flat discount of 20 percent on grain and 8 percent
on sunflower seed reduces the share of crops in total
output. Growth in crop output for the periods shown
rises slightly because the weather-related discount
was not applied in 1950-54 and is relatively large in
1970 and 1979. Additional discounts on other crops
have little effect on the index. The average absolute
percentage difference is very small, indicating that
discounts on other crops do not affect trends
significantly.
Accounting for the variation in animal weight over
time for purposes of measuring livestock inventory
change causes no appreciable change in growth of
livestock output. The average absolute percentage
difference is 1.1 percent�less than that in crop
output caused by altering the discounts. Error in total
output is less than one percent. Because average
slaughter weights show little change, using 1970
average realized prices to value all herd changes over
time gives almost identical results to the more labori-
ous process of adjusting the price each year for
variations in animal weight.
Valuing quantities of grain, potatoes, vegetables, and
whole milk fed at average cost of production in
1970�the fifth test�does not change the value of net
output available for sale and home consumption. The
procedure lowers the value of crop output and raises
the value of livestock output by the same amount.
Growth in total output remains the same. Growth in
livestock output as well as its share in total output,
however, increases because feed deductions are small-
er. Crop output grows more slowly when the feed
portion of crop output is also valued at cost.
B. Use of Alternative Price Weights
Average absolute percentage difference calculations
indicate that the shift to 1960 prices has the largest
effect on the index. As table 8 shows, the share of
crops is raised relative to livestock output. Since 1960,
prices of livestock products have risen more than crop
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Table 7
Sensitivity Tests of CIA Index
Average Absolute
Percentage Difference
Average Annual Percentage Rates of Growth
1951-79
1951-60
1961-70
1971-79
1970 prices'
Net crops
2.4
2.6
3.7
0.7
Net livestock
3.7
6.1
3.7
1.0
Total
3.0
4.3
3.7
0.9
No discounts
Net crops
2.6
3.1
3.9
0.5
.023
Net livestock
3.5
5.7
3.6
1.0
.010
Total
3.0
4.3
3.8
0.7
.007
Flat discounts on grain and
sunflowers
Net crops
2.5
2.9
3.9
0.6
.022
Net livestock
3.7
6.0
3.7
1.1
.008
Total
3.1
4.5
3.8
1.7
.008
Additional discounts on crops
and eggs
Net crops
2.4
2.6
3.7
0.7
.002
Net livestock
3.6
6.1
3.7
1.0
.002
Total
3.0
4.4
3.7
0.8
.002
Varying animal weight
Net crops
2.4
2.6
3.7
0.7
Net livestock
3.7
5.9
3.9
1.0
.011
Total
3.0
4.2
3.8
0.8
.006
Feed valued at cost
Net crops
2.0
2.0
3.5
0.2
.023
Net livestock
4.0
6.5
3.9
1.3
.012
Total
3.3
4.3
3.7
0.9
.002
1960 prices
Net crops
2.5
2.5
4.0
0.8
.013
Net livestock
3.8
6.3
3.6
1.3
.068
Total
3.0
4.1
3.8
1.0
.012
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Table 8
Sensitivity Tests of Shares of Net Output
Percent
1950
1960
1970
1979
1970 prices
Net crops
55
46
46
46
Net livestock
45
54
54
54
Total
100
100
100
100
No discounts
Net crops
55
48
49
48
Net livestock
45
52
51
52
Total
100
100
100
100
Flat discounts on grain
and sunflowers
Net crops
52
45
46
44
Net livestock
48
55
54
56
Total
100
100
100
100
Additional discounts on
crops and eggs
Net crops
53
44
44
44
Net livestock
47
56
56
56
Total
100
100
100
100
Varying animal weight
Net crops
54
46
46
46
Net livestock
46
54
54
54
Total
100
100
100
100
Feed valued at cost
Net crops
54
44
43
40
Net livestock
46
56
57
60
Total
100
100
100
100
1960 Prices
Net crops
62
53
54
53
Net livestock
38
47
46
47
Total
100
100
100
100
prices.'" As a result, the average absolute percentage
difference is much larger for livestock output than for
crops.
1" In 1962, prices paid to farms were raised for livestock, milk, eggs,
and for some crops. Under the Brezhnev agricultural program,
inaugurated in 1965, procurement price bonuses were established
for quantities of agricultural produce delivered above the plan.
Grain and milk prices were increased. In 1970, livestock prices went
up and 50 percent price bonuses were introduced for sales above the
plan for livestock, milk, eggs, and wool. In the 1965-1975 period,
procurement prices rose by 70 percent for livestock products while
crop prices rose by only 30 percent. Cattle prices rose by 77 percent
and milk prices by 62 percent. Grain prices went up by only 41
percent during this period. (A. S. Baranov, Gosudarstvenniye
zagatovki v usloviyakh spetsializatsii i konsentratsii serskokho-
zyaystvennogo proizvodstva, Moscow, 1978, p. 162.)
Within the livestock sector, however, when 1960
prices are used, growth accelerates sufficiently to
offset the dampening effect of the increased share of
crop output for all periods except 1951-60. Growth in
livestock output is slower in 1970 prices than in 1960
prices because the largest price increases between
these two years occurred in the slowest growing
components of livestock output�herd inventories and
meat production. Egg and poultry production posted
the largest increases among livestock products be-
tween 1960 and 1970, but the price increase for eggs
was the smallest among livestock products. The share
of poultry is too small to affect growth in totaj
livestock output.
VIII. Comparison of the CIA Index with Other In-
dexes of Soviet Agricultural Production
In this section we compare the CIA index with two
Western indexes of Soviet agricultural production�
one compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organiza-
tion of the UN, and the other by the USDA. In
addition, we contrast our index to the Soviet official
index of gross agricultural output. Finally, we relate
our index in terms of definitions and methodology to
the US index of agricultural output compiled by the
USDA. The following tabulation summarizes growth
in Soviet agricultural production as measured by the
various indexes.
Average Annual Percentage
Rates of Growth
1951-79
1951-60
1961-70
1971-79
Net output
CIA index
3.0
4.3
3.7
1.5
USDA index
3.6
4.1
3.7
1.5
FAO index
NA
NA
NA
0.9
Gross output
Official Soviet
index
3.2
4.8
3.3
1.4
CIA index
3.2
4.6
3.6
1.2
Each comparison is intended to define the extent and
causes of the differences in the indexes. We then
attempt to reconcile the indexes being compared.
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Our overall measure of variation is the average
absolute percentage difference between the CIA index
and each of the indexes being compared. The differ-
ence calculation provides a less ambiguous measure of
variation than comparisons of growth rates for arbi-
trarily chosen periods. We supplement the difference
calculations with measures of variations in growth
rates and structure of output. We assess differences in
sample coverage, estimating procedures, and price
weights.
The final step in the comparisons is to construct a
variant of the CIA index that matches the index being
compared as closely as possible. By eliminating as
many differences as possible between the indexes, we
are able to identify many of the factors that cause the
indexes to grow at different rates. In most cases, for
example, this reconstruction can eliminate differences
in the indexes caused by different price weights.
Average absolute percentage difference calculations
are used to determine whether the reconstruction
improved the match between CIA index and the
indexes being compared with it.
A. The Official Soviet Index of USSR Gross Agricul-
tural Output
The official Soviet index measures gross output of
agriculture. Products used for seed and crops fed are
counted as output of the crop sector; feed is also
included in the value of livestock production. Al-
though the value of agricultural output is overstated
in the official index, our focus is on intertemporal
comparisons between the two indexes and not on the
overall magnitude of production measured in rubles.
To compare the CIA and Soviet indexes of agri-
cultural output, both must be on either a net or gross
basis. Given the lack of Soviet statistics on uses of
output, we chose to convert the CIA index to a gross
basis rather than to create a net output index from
Soviet data.
The official Soviet index in 1965 comparable prices is
compared with the CIA index of net agricultural
output in 1970 prices and with the CIA index recon-
structed to a gross output basis, weighted with Soviet
1965 comparable prices.'" The CIA index was calcu-
lated on a gross basis by adding back the value of seed
and feed and by eliminating the discounts on grain
and sunflower seed. Our reconstructed index is not
strictly comparable to the Soviet official index, how-
ever. Although the Soviet index is nominally in
constant prices, it is actually a "linked" index incor-
porating several sets of price weights."�
Data are not available to correct the official Soviet
index for this deficiency. Furthermore, we did not
allow for crops included in the official Soviet index
but excluded from the CIA index. (See Table 2.)
Table 9 shows that the average absolute percentage
difference between the Soviet gross output index and
the CIA net output index is 3.6. The difference is
smaller for crops than for livestock, indicating that
omissions from the CIA crop sample are not a source
of serious bias in the index. Despite more similar
coverage, the CIA index of livestock output is farther
from the Soviet variation than is the index of crop
output. The CIA measure of net output grows at
approximately the same rate as the Soviet measure of
gross output during the 1951-79 period, even though
growth rates for crops and livestock in the two indexes
do not agree well. Growth rates for total output match
because differences in growth of crop and livestock
indexes are offset by differences in CIA and Soviet
weights used to aggregate crop and livestock output
into total agricultural production. As table 10 shows,
for the past two decades crops and livestock con-
tributed equally to Soviet gross output while the CIA
index (both gross and net) gave greater weight to
" In the Soviet definition of comparable prices, marketed output is
valued at actual sale prices while products used entirely within the
sector are valued at cost. Private sector production that is not
marketed is valued at the average price for marketed output of the
particular commodity. A complete list of 1965 comparable prices
used in the official Soviet index and in our reconstruction of the
CIA index is found in F.E. Savitskiy et al., Spravochnik po
planirovaniyu sel'skogo khozyaystva, Moscow, 1974, pp. 462-464.
u� According to Soviet statistical handbooks, 1950 indexes are
expressed in 1926/27 prices; 1951-55 are in 1951 prices; 1956-57
are in 1956 prices; 1958-64 are in 1958 prices; 1965-75 are in 1965
prices, and since 1976, the index has been calculated in 1973 prices.
When a new set of price weights is introduced, the total ruble value
of agricultural output is adjusted by one aggregate price index
instead of a detailed set of deflators. The procedure is not
equivalent to revaluing each item in the index in new prices. Trends
in the official index, therefore, are affected by this imperfect
transition from one set of price weights to another.
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Table 9
Comparison of CIA and Soviet Official
Indexes of Agricultural Production
Average Annual Percentage Rates of Growth
Average Absolute
Percentage Difference
1951-79
1951-60
1961-70
1971-79
Soviet official 1965 prices
Total
3.2
4.8
3.3
1.4
Crops
2.8
4.1
3.3
0.8
Livestock
3.9
6.4
3.3
2.0
CIA-net output 1970 prices
Total
3.0
4.3
3.7
0.9
.036
Crops
2.4
2.6
3.7
0.7
.013
Livestock
3.7
6.1
3.7
1.0
.074
CIA-gross output 1965 prices
Total
3.2
4.6
3.6
1.2
.015
Crops
2.4
3.0
3.6
0.5
.012
Livestock
3.9
6.2
3.6
1.8
.018
livestock output. In 1979, largely as a result of the
poor crop output, the share of gross output originating
in the livestock sector increased relative to crops in the
official Soviet index.
The reconstruction of the CIA index on a gross basis
with 1965 Soviet comparable prices eliminates differ-
ences in growth rates for total output and livestock
output for 1951-79. Growth rates do not match for
intervening periods; differences are especially large
for 1971-79. Furthermore, growth rates in the CIA
and Soviet indexes of gross crop production remain
far apart. In eliminating deductions for intrasector
use of crops as a source of disparity, we discovered
that the amount of deviation between the two indexes
due to intrasector use is evidently small. Differences
in sample coverage probably are responsible for much
of the remaining difference between the two indexes.
Average absolute percentage difference calculations
reveal that despite occasional large differences in
growth rates, the reconstructed CIA index of gross
crop output is very close to the Soviet index. Although
growth rate comparisons suggest more correspon-
dence between the Soviet and CIA reconstructed
livestock indexes, average annual difference calcula-
tions indicate that trends in these indexes vary more
than those in the crop indexes. However, on average,
the CIA reconstructed gross output indexes of crops,
livestock, and total output differ from the official
index by less than 2 percent which is not material.
Although the reconstruction of the CIA index on a
gross basis reduced the average absolute percentage
difference to 1.5 percent, the disparity in the weights
for crops and livestock in total output increased.
Eliminating the deduction of livestock feed from
livestock production in the CIA index did not improve
the correspondence between CIA and Soviet weights
except for 1950. We attempted to eliminate some of
the discrepancy by adding a rough estimate of the
value of hay and green feed produced to crop output.
As a result the share of crops rose from 46 to 47
percent.
The shift to 1965 comparable prices caused growth of
livestock output in the CIA index to accelerate sharp-
ly in periods before 1960. Total output grows more
slowly than the Soviet official measure, however.
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Table 10
Comparison of Structure of Output in Soviet
and CIA Indexes, Percentage Shares
1950
1960
1970
1979
CIA index, 1970 prices
(net output)
Crops
55
46
46
46
Livestock
45
54
54
54
Total
100
100
100
100
CIA index, 1965 prices
(gross output)
Crops
58
46
46
43
Livestock
42
54
54
57
Total
100
100
100
100
Soviet official index
(gross output)
Crops
56
51
51
48
Livestock
44
49
49
52
Total
100
100
100
100
After 1960, the increased weight of the livestock
sector causes the CIA index of gross output to grow
faster than the Soviet index. The CIA measure of
total gross agricultural output grows at 2.9 percent for,
the 1961-79 period as a whole, while the Soviet index
grows at 2.4 percent. Crop output grew more slowly
than livestock output during the period. If the CIA
index had a more complete crop sample, thus decreas-
ing the weight of the livestock sector, growth in gross
output would slow.
B. The FAO Index
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the
United Nations publishes annually an index of net
agricultural output for the world as a whole and for
149 individual countries." The output indexes are
weighted with 1969-71 average producer prices of the
given country and incorporate deductions for seed,
feed, hatching eggs, and for waste. The FAO index
for the USSR Offers from the CIA index because
changes in livestock inventories are excluded and
because certain semiprocessed feeds such as bran and
oilcake are deducted. Meat output in the FAO index,
FAO Production Yearbook, Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations, Rome, 1979, Vol. 33, p. 78.
281
moreover, is registered in terms of liveweight. Sample
coverage in our index and the FAO index is similar,
especially for crops. In the livestock sector, however,
the FAO index includes animal hides, cheese, dry
milk, and other milk products.
Table 11 compares the CIA and FAO indexes of net
Soviet agricultural output for those years covered by
the FAO index."' Although the CIA and FAO index-
es have similar price weights, the average absolute
percentage difference between the two indexes is 4
percent. When the change in livestock inventories is
removed from the CIA index in 1970 prices, the CIA-
FAO match is improved considerably; the direction of
change becomes the same in each year; and the
average difference falls to about 1 percent.
Average annual rates of growth for the 1967-79
period as a whole differ slightly; removal of livestock
inventory change eliminates the difference. In com-
paring the 1971-76 period, the two indexes initially
differ by a large amount. Again, however, the differ-
ence is virtually eliminated when livestock inventory
change is removed from the CIA index. Using growth
rates to assess the similarity of these indexes is thus
ambiguous. We place more weight on the average
absolute percentage difference calculation that shows
the FAO and reconstructed CIA indexes to be the
best match achieved in any of our reconstructions.
C. The USDA Index of Soviet Agricultural Output
The USDA publishes indexes of agricultural produc-
tion for Europe and the USSR."3 The index for the
USSR is weighted with 1969-71 average prices re-
ceived by farmers in Western Europe converted to US
dollars at official exchange rates. Production data are
official Soviet output statistics. A constant 38-percent
"'The FAO revised the index in 1977. Data in earlier editions of
lhe yearbook are not comparable with currently published data.
Older versions of the index are weighted with 1961-65 average
wheat-based price relatives. These weights are derived by express-
ing the national producer prices for all commodities as a percentage
of the national producer price of an equal weight of wheat. The
older index included a greater number of processed products such
as wine and refined sugar.
" The current version of the index was published in May, 1981,
after research for this paper was completed. Unpublished data �
provided by USDA were used to compare the CIA and revised
USDA indexes. The most recent USDA publication is Indices of
Agricultural and Food Production for Europe and the USSR,
ESCS, Statistical Bulletin no. 620, June 1979.
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Sample coverage in the USDA index resembles that
of the CIA index with some minor exceptions. The
USDA index includes only sunflower seed in, oilcrop
production. In livestock production, the USDA index
omits production of honey, silk cocoons, other meat,
and livestock inventory change.
Table 11
Comparison of CIA and FAO Indexes of Soviet
Agricultural Production, 1966-79 a
FAO
1969-71
Prices
CIA
1970
Prices
CIA Less
Livestock
Inventory Change
1970 Prices
1966
91.2
86.6
89.2
1967
93.1
86.6
92.6
1968
97.1
91.7
97.7
1969
92.2
89.0
92.9
1970
100.0
100.0
100.0
1971
102.0
99.6
102.1
1972
97.1
94.0
99.3
1973
113.7
107.8
111.3
1974
108.8
106.5
111.0
1975
106.9
98.2
106.2
1976
111.8
106.1
110.9
1977
113.7
111.0
113.6
1978
122.5
114.6
119.0
1979
115.7
107.9
113.0
Average annual
rates of growth
(percent)
1967-70
2.3
3.7
2.9
1971-76
1.9
1.0
1.7
1967-79
1.8
1.7
1.8
Average absolute
percentage
difference
.044
.012
1970=100
deduction is applied to the value of livestock output to
account for use of domestic and imported feed. The
feed share is estimated according to the relationship
between the value of feeds (excluding forage) and the
value of livestock products in 1969-71."4 No deduc-
tions are made for seed use; grain and sunflower seed
are not reduced by a waste allowance.
"The USDA 38-percent share is higher than the share of crop-
sector feed in livestock output as shown in the 1972 input-output
table in current prices. Even when purchases by animal husbandry
from the food industry are added, the share of feed in livestock
output is still under 30 percent. Crop-sector feed as a share of
livestock output in the CIA index is about 20 percent in the 1969-
71 period; it includes only feeds counted elsewhere in the index. In
subtracting 38 percent of livestock output for feed, the USDA
appears to be deducting more feed than is counted in the output
index.
Table 12 compares growth in the CIA and USDA
indexes for the years 1950-79. For the period as a
whole and for 1971-79 the USDA index shows faker
growth in all categories. The USDA crop index places
more weight on output of fruits and vegetables than
on grain and potatoes. During 1951-79 fruit and
vegetable production grew at an average annual rate
of 5.1 percent while grain and potatoes grew by only
1.4 percent. The CIA crop index weights output of
grain and potatoes more heavily than fruits and
vegetables and therefore grows more slowly. The
average absolute percentage difference for crops is
only two percent, however, while the difference for
livestock is almost 7 percent.
To assess the effect of the differing methodologies, a
variant of the CIA index was constructed using gross
crop production, eliminating livestock inventory
change, and applying a 38-percent feed allowance to
the value of livestock output: This procedure reduced
the difference for livestock significantly, but the
difference for the crop series increased. By eliminat-
ing grain discounts and seed deductions to create a
variant of the CIA crop index definitionally com-
parable to that of USDA, we increased the weight of
grain and potatoes. The effect of this change was to
widen the gap in growth between the two crop
indexes.
Table 13 compares the indexes in terms of crop and
livestock shares of net agricultural output. Since 1960
the USDA index shows livestock as representing only
about one third of total agricultural output whereas in
the CIA index livestock has accounted for more than
half of the total value of output since 1960. The CIA
index constructed with USDA methodology increases
the relative share of crops but this share is still below
that in the USDA index.
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Table 12
Comparison of CIA and USDA Indexes
of Soviet Agricultural Production
Average Absolute
Percentage Difference
Average Annual Percentage Rates of Growth
1951-79
1951-60
1961-70
1971-79
USDA Index
Crops
2.7
3.2
3.7
0.9
Net livestock
4.0
5.9
3.5
2.5
Total
3.1
4.1
3.6
1.5
CIA Index (net output, 1970 prices)
Crops
2.4
2.6
3.7
0.7
.018
Livestock
3.7
6.1
3.7
1.0
.068
Total
3.0
4.3
3.7
0.9
.032
CIA Index (USDA methodology,
1970 prices) �
Crops
2.3
2.8
3.5
0.4
.027
Livestock
4.0
6.1
3.3
2.4
.009
Total
2.9
4.0
3.4
1.2
.025
Table 13
Comparison of Structure of Output
in CIA and USDA Indexes
Percentage shares
1950
1960
1970
1979
USDA index
Crops
70
64
65
62
Livestock
30.
36
35
38
Total
100
100
100
100
CIA index, 1970 prices
Crops
55
46
46
46
Livestock
45
54
54
54
Total
100
100
100
100
CIA index in USDA
methodology, 1970
prices
Crops
66
58
59
54
Livestock
34
42
41
46
Total
100
100
100
100
The remaining differences between the indexes are
caused by the differences in the price weights. In
.using prices of Western Europe to value output, the
USDA index "understates" somewhat the value of
livestock products in terms of Soviet relative prices.
Prices for most livestock products compared to crops
are relatively lower in Western Europe than in the
USSR. Relative prices for crops are more alike in the
two systems although Western European grain and
potatoes are cheaper relative to other food crops.
Table 14 compares relative prices for selected com-
modities in the two indexes. In each case, all prices
are expressed as index numbers with the wheat price
equal to 100. The table shows clearly the disparity in
crop prices as opposed to livestock prices in the two
systems.
D. The US Index of Agricultural Output
Both the CIA index of Soviet agricultural production
and the official Soviet index of gross agricultural
production can be compared with the US index of
farm output, which measures farm output on'both a
gross and a net basis.''
us A complete description of the US index is found in USDA,
Major Statistical Series of the U.S. Department of Agriculture,
vol. 2, 1970, pp. 15-17. The index is published on an annual basis in
the USDA statistical handbook. Data for the most recent years are
reported in USDA, Agricultural Statistics, 1978, Washington,
D.C., 1978, p. 445.
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Table 14
Comparison of Relative Prices in CIA and USDA
Indexes of Soviet Agricultural Production a
USDA Index
CIA Index
Food crops
Wheat
100.0
100.0
Rye
86.0
112.6
Barley
89.5
78.6
Potatoes
89.5
110.7
Vegetables
278.9
158.3
Fruits
200.0
273.8
Technical crops
Cotton
1358.1
538.8
Sunflower seed
193.0
181.6
Fiber flax
789.5
2275.7
Livestock products
Beef and veal
2021.1
2382.5
Pork
1875.4
2186.4
Poultry
1856.1
2299.0
Milk
177.2
190.3
Eggs
1628.1
176.7
Wool
3877.2
4514.6
a Wheat =100
The US gross output index includes seed and feed and
is similar in other ways to the official Soviet index. In
both indexes, the value of hay and harvested roughage
(silage and forage) is included in crop production.
Both include a large number of items with many more
in the crop sample than in the livestock sample. The
US index includes 111 individual crops and 29 items
for the livestock sector. The US index covers 95
percent of total output, which is somewhat better
coverage than our sample of Soviet agricultural pro-
duction. The US and Soviet indexes also have in
common the use of different price weights for differ-
ent periods. The US index uses 1957-59 average
realized prices for years since 1955, 1947-49 prices
for 1939-53, and 1935-39 prices for years before
1939."6 The Soviet index is considerably more frag-
mented. In the period 1950-1979, it incorporates
prices of 1951, 1956, 1958, 1965, and 1973. The two
indexes are based on quite different sources of data,
however. The US index is based on sample survey
data supplemented by probability sampling. The So-
viet output statistics are theoretically a literal enu-
meration of all production in collective farms and
state agricultural enterprises, with the private sector
output based on sampling.
In estimating net farm output in the United States,
the USDA encounters some of the same difficulties
involved in constructing the CIA index of Soviet
output. First, in both cases it was impossible to make
complete deductions for all seed produced and used
within agriculture. The US index deducts only hay-
seed, pasture seed, and cover crop seed. No deductions
are made for other types of seed. We deduct only seed
for grain and potatoes from Soviet gross output. In
both indexes, data are insufficient to deduct the value
of pasture feed from livestock production. Although
the US index excludes intrasector use of agricultural
commodities in estimating net output, no allowance is
made for waste. Waste, however, is a much less
serious problem in US statistics than in Soviet
statistics.
"'Because more than one set of price weights is used in the index,
the series is spliced in 1940 and 1955 using calculations both in old
and new prices for those years.
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APPENDIX A
USSR: Derivation of Quantity Data Used in
the Index of Soviet Agricultural Production
This appendix lists the sources for the quantities used
in the index of Soviet agricultual production. The
index itself is shown in table A-1. Table A-2 summa-
rizes the gross output data for crops; table A-3
contains data for output of livestock products and
changes in livestock inventories. Gross output of grain
and sunflower seeds is discounted for excess moisture
and waste before it is used in the index, presented in
table A-1.
Grain
Grain production is taken from official Soviet statis-
tics, except for 1951 and 1952 which are estimates.
The index uses unrounded data for nine individual
types of grain. A figure for "other grain" is calculated
by subtracting production of the nine types from the
official total. Sources for statistics used in the index
are listed below. Unless otherwise indicated, the
source cited reports data to the nearest thousand tons
for total grain production and for each individual type
of grain.
1979: Vest stat, no. 9, 1980, p. 75.
1978: Vest stat, no. 10, 1979, p. 75.
1977: Vest stat, no. 10, 1978, p. 91.
1976: Vest stat, no. 9, 1977, p. 89.
1975: Narkhoz 1975, pp. 360-366 contains unrounded
production data for all grains except oats and barley.
For these grains, data are from USDA Foreign
Agricultural Service reporting, SS 7003, 18 February
1977, p. 70.
1974: Production of all grains except rice is reported
in Vest stat no. 10, 1975, p. 88. Rice production is
reported in Narkhoz 1975, p. 365.
1973: Vest stat, no. 10, 1975, p. 88.
1973: Vest stat, no. 10, 1974, p. 88 reports unrounded
production data for all grains except rice which is
reported in Narkhoz 1975, p. 365.
1971: Narkhoz 1974 pp. 355-362 reports unrounded
production data for all grains except oats, barley, and
rice. Data for oats and barley are taken from Nar-
khoz SSSR 1922-1972, p. 222, and data for rice from
Narkhoz 1975, p. 365.
1960-70: Unrounded data for all years and for all
types of grain are reported in Selkhoz 1971, pp. 154-
191.
1950, 1953-59: Unrounded ,data for all years and for
all types of grain are found in Selkhoz 1960, pp. 202-
203.
1951-52: Figures for total grain production and for
output of wheat and rye are reporting in Selkhoz
1971, p. 152. Production of other grains was estimat-
ed using indexes of 1) total production, 2) wheat and
rye output, and 3) the residual obtained by subtract-
ing wheat and rye output from total grain production.
Estimates of individual types of grain are as follows.
Buckwheat, oats, pulses
Output in 1950 is moved to 1951 and 1952 using an
index of the residual obtained by subtracting wheat
and rye output from total grain.
Rice
Output in 1951 and 1952 is arbitrarily held constant
at the 1950 level.
Corn for grain
CIA/RR ER 64-33, Production of Grain in the
USSR, p. 28.
Barley
Output in 1950 is moved to 1951 and 1952 using an
index of total grain production.
Millet
An index of wheat output is used to move 1950 millet
output to 1951 and 1952.
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Other grain
Other grain is estimated for 1951 and 1952 by
subtracting the production of nine individual types
from the total.
Potatoes
1976-79: Narkhoz 1979, p. 253.
1971-75: Narkhoz 1975, p. 371.
1950-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 206.
Vegetables
1976-79: Narkhoz 1979, p. 254.
1971-75: Narkhoz 1975, p. 373.
1950-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 211.
The total harvest is distributed by type of vegetable
according to the percentage distribution of state pro-
curements of vegetables by type. State procurement
statistics are available for 1950, and 1960-70 in
Selkhoz 1971 pp. 68-70 and in Selkhoz 1960 p. 103.
Percentage distributions of procurements for 1951-
1959 are estimated by a straight-line interpolation of
the 1950 and 1960 distributions. From 1971 forward,
the 1970 percentage distribution is used. Figures for
the production of vegetables by type in the socialized
sector are available for recent years. Since these
figures exclude the large quantity of vegetables pro-
duced in the private sector, the 1970 distribution of
total procurements is used.
Fruits, berries, nuts
1975-79: Narkhoz 1979, p. 259.
1971-74: Narkhoz 1975, p. 381.
1960, 1965-70: Selkhoz 1971 p. 237.
1958, 1963-64: Narkhoz 1965, p. 297.
1953, 1959, 1961-62: Narkhoz 1962, p. P7.
1956-57: Selkhoz 1960, pp. 254, 256.
1955: Narkhoz 1960, p. 446. Published statistics for
1955 exclude citrus production. An arbitrary allow-
ance of 40,000 tons has been added to the published
figure.
1954: Calculated from average annual production for
1954-58 given in Narkhoz 1960, p. 375. An arbitrary
allowance of 40,000 tons of citrus fruit was added to
the official total.
1951-52: Straight line interpolation.
1950: Narkhoz 1967, p. 410.
Sugarbeets (procurements)
1976-79: Narkhoz 1979, p. 256.
1971-75: Narichoz 1975, 376.
1950-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 197.
Cotton
1976-79: Narkhoz 1979, p, 250.
1972-75: Narkhoz 1975, p. 367.
1950-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 194.
Tobacco and Makhorka
1979: Vest slat, no. 9, 1980, p. 76.
1975-78: Narkhoz 1978, p. 203.
1\970-74: Narkhoz 1974, p. 319.
1960, 1965-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 52.
1963-64: Narkhoz 1965, p. 268.
1961-62: Narkhoz 1962, p 239.
1950, 1953, 1955-59: Selkhoz 1960, p. 90.
1954: Calculated from annual average procurements
for 1954-58 as given in Narkhoz 1962, p. 239.
1951-52: Straight line interpolation between 1950 and
1953.
Sunflower seed
1976-79: Narkhoz 1979, p. 252.
1971-75: Narkhoz 1975, p. 370.
1950-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 203.
Soybeans
1979: Vest stat, no. 9, 1980, p. 76.
1978: Vest slat, no. 10, 1979, p. 75.
1977: Total .soybean production is estimated on the
assumption that production in the ItSFSR accounts
for 96 percent of the total,'as was the case in 1971-74.
For these years, data on total production are available
(see below). Data on RSFSR production for 1971-74
are from Narkhoz 1975, p. 209. Comparison of
RSFSR and all-USSR production statistics shows
that the annual average ratio of RSFSR production to
total output is 96 percent. Data on 1977 production of
soybeans in the RSFSR are found in Narkhoz
RSFSR 1977, p. 123.
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1976: Vest stat, no. 9 1977, p. 90.
1975: USDA Agricultural Situation: Review of 1978
and Outlook for 1979, Economics, Statistics, and
Cooperatives Service, April 1979, p. 12.
1973-74: Vest stat, no. 10, 1975, p. 89.
1971-72: Vest stat, no 10, 1974, p. 89.
1960, 1965, 1970: Maslo-zhirovaya promyshlennost',
no. 8, 1972, p. 8.
1963-64, 1966-69: Total soybean production is esti-
mated on the assumption that RSFSR production
accounts for 98 percent of total output (Ek selkhoz,
no. 7, 1973, p. 46). Soybean production in the RSFSR
for the relevant years is reported in Narkhoz RSFSR
1965, p. 243 and Narkhoz RSFSR 1969, p. 184.
1961-62: Straight line interpolation between 1960 and
1963.
1950, 1953-59: Selkhoz 1960, p. 202-203.
1951-52: Output in 1950 is moved forward to 1951
and 1952 using an index of sown area from Posevnyye
ploshchadi SSSR, vol. 2, Moscow, 1957, p. 94.
Other oilseeds
This category includes castorbeans, mustard seed,
flaxseed, hemp seed, tung nuts, peanuts, falseflax,
rape, colza, sesame, and others. Output is estimated
by subtracting production of soybeans and sunflower
seeds form total oilseed output. Total oilseed produc-
tion is reported in the following sources.
1975-79: Narkhoz 1979, p. 220.
1970-74: Narkhoz 1975, p. 318.
1950, 1960-69: Selkhoz 1971, pp. 148-149.
1953, 1959: Narkhoz 1962, pp. 234-235.
1956-58: Selkhoz 1960, pp. 26-27.
1955: Narkhoz 1960, p. 375.
1954: Calculated from 1954-58 average production
given in Narkhoz 1960, p. 375.
1951-52: Estimated by moving 1950 total oilseed
production forward with an index of sunflower seed
production.
Fibe, flax
1976-79: Narkhoz 1979, p. 120.
1971-75: Narkhoz 1975, p. 369.
1950-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 201.
Tea (procurements)
1975-79: Narkhoz 1979, p. 261.
1971-74: Narkhoz 1975, p. 382.
1960-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 239.
1953, 1955-59: Selkhoz 1960, pp. 90, 257.
1951-52, 1954: Total tea procurements are estimated
by moving 1950 procurements forward with an index
of tea procurements in Georgia, which accounts for
over 95 percent of Soviet tea procurements. Procure-
ment figures for Georgia are found in Narodnoye
khozyaystvo Gruzinskoy SSR v 1962 gody, Tbilisi,
1963, pp. 134-135.
1950: Strana sovetov za 60 let, Moscow, 1967, p. 147.
Milk, eggs, wool
1979: Vest stat, no. 9, 1980, p. 79.
1978: Vest stat, no. 10, 1979, p. 78.
1954-77: Vest stat, no. 6, 1979, p. 66.
1953: Selkhoz 1960, p. 350, 355, 360.
1951-52: Narkhoz 1967, p. 332.
1950: Narkhoz 1965, p. 378, 474, 476.
Honey
1979: Vest stat, no. 9, 1980, p. 79.
1978: Vest stat, no 10, 1979, p. 78.
1977: Vest slat, no. 10, 1978, p. 95.
1976: Vest stat, no. 9, 1977, p. 90.
1975: Straight line interpolation.
1973-74: Vest stat, no. 10, 1975, p. 95.
1972: Vest stat, no. 10, 1974, p. 93.
1972: Straight line interpolation
1950, 1960-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 322.
1953, 1956-59: Selkhoz 1960, p. 333.
1951-52, 1954-55: Straight line interpolation
Silk cocoons
1979: Vest stat, no. 9, 1980, p. 79.
1978: Vest stat, no. 10, 1979, p. 78.
1975-77: Narkhoz 1978, p. 203.
1965, 1970-74: Narkhoz 1975, p. 325.
1950, 1960 1966-69: Selkhoz 1971, p. 53.
1963-64: Narkhoz 1965, p. 268.
1961-62: Narkhoz 1962, p. 238.
1953, 1955-59: Selkhoz 1960, p. 91.
1954: Calculated using data on annual average pro-
curements for 1954-58 and on annual procurements
for 1955-58.
1951-52: Straight line interpolation.
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Meat
Unrounded data for total meat production are readily
available in Soviet statistical handbooks. Unrounded
production statistics for each individual type of meat
appear less consistently. Production of individual
types is subtracted from the official figure for total
meat output to derive "other" meat production. Stat-
istics on total meat production are taken from:
1979: Vest stat, no. 9, 1980, p. 79.
1978: Vest stat, no. 10, 1979, p. 78.
1954-77: Vest stat, no. 6, 1979, p. 66.
1953: Selkhoz 1960, p. 338.
1951-52: Zhivotnovodstvo SSSR, Moscow, 1959, p.
161.
1950: Selkhoz 1960, p. 289.
Production statistics for individual types of meat were
drawn from the following sources.
1979: Vest stat, no. 9, 1980, p. 79.
1978: Vest stat, no. 10, 1979, p. 78.
1977: Vest stat, no. 10, 1978, p. 95.
1976: Vest stat, no. 9, 1977, p. 93.
1975: Narkhoz 1978, p. 250.
1973-74: Vest stat, no. 10, 1975, p. 95.
1972: Vest slat, no. 10, 1974, p. 93.
1971: Proizvodstvo produktov zhivotnovodstva v
1972 godu, Moscow, 1973, p. 10.
1950, 1960-1970: Selkhoz 1971, p. 290
1953, 1956-59: Selkhoz 1960, p. 333-335.
1954-55: Zhivotnovodstvo SSSR, Moscow, 1959, p.
159.
1951-52: Except for pork, statistics are from Narkhoz
1967, p. 332. The pork figure is found in Zhivotno-
vodstvo SSSR, Moscow, 1959, p. 162.
Livestock Investories, 1 January
1980: Pravda, 26 January, 1980.
1979: Narkhoz 1978, pp. 246-247.
1966, 1971, 1976-78: Narkhoz 1977, pp. 256-257.
1972-75: Narkhoz 1975, pp. 391-392, 395.
1951, 1961-65, 1967-70: Selkhoz 1971, pp. 246-249,
272.
1954-60: Selkhoz 1960, pp. 266-269, 320; and Nark-
hoz 1960, p. 457.
1953: Zhivotnovodstvo SSSR, Moscow 1959, pp. 29,
31-33.
1950, 1952: Narkhoz 1967, p. 425. Figures for poul-
try flocks for 1950, 1952, 1953, and 1956 are
interpolated.
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Table A-1
USSR: Value of Net Agricultural Output, 1950-79
Million rubles
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Total grain
6600.1
6168.0
7488.6
6404.4
6657.8
7700.1
8869.7
7256.4
9858.9
8564.8
Food grains
4205.0
4312.1
5055.8
4563.9
4803.8
4748.6
5962.6
5318.0
6973.1
6409.5
Feed grains
2395.1
1855.9
2432.8
1840.5
1854.0
2951.2
2907.1
1938.4_
2985.8
2155.3
Potatoes
8253.3
4867.9
6109.9 .
6473.9
6666.0
6210.5
8953.6
7892.8
7801.0
7801.6
Vegetables
1345.8
1286.4
1435.4
1689.6
1783.4
2132.1
2185.3
2275.0
2312.8
2317.5
Oil crops
479.5
463.9
594.4
621.0
427.0
813.9
853.0
627.3
974.0
644.8
Fruits, berries, nuts
803.7
837.3
870.8
904.7
989.8
1080.1
970.1
1394.2
1366.6
1396.2
Sugarbeets
512.3
607.8
571.8
595.2
507.6
797.3
817.9
1001.9
1326.6
1075.6
Cotton -
1964.1
2068.5
2097.9
2138.4
2331.0
2154.0
2404.3
2337.1
2408.7
2578.0
Tobacco
123.1
137.7
152.3
169.0
194.0
169.0
164.8
212.8
208.6
233.6
Makhorka
50.1 '
49.5
48.3
47.7
39.6
62.9
69.3
51.2
59.4
41.3
Fiber flax
597.7
452.4
499.3
379.7
511.0
893.1
1221.2
1031.4
1026.7
853.2
Tea
79.8
89.2
91.8
103.4
103.6
113.7
103.4
105.7
129.9
137.0
Total crops
20809.6
17028.5
19960.4
19527.0
20210.8
22126.5
26612.6
24185.8
27473.1
25643.5
Index (1970=100)
54.048
44.227
51.842
50.717
52.493
57.468
69.120
62.817
71.355
66.603
Annual growth (percent)
- 0.0
-18.17
17.22
-2.17
3.50
9.48
20.27
-9.12
13.59
-6.66
Meat
11262.2
10887.7
11910.9
13557.0
14705.2
14830.7
15411.0
17181.1
17898.0
20715.1
Milk
6921.0
7095.2
6997.2
7149.1
7486.6
8429.8
9625.8
10731.0
11500.1
12096.3
Eggs
1169.7
1330.0
1440.0
1605.9
1717.9
1848.1
1953.2
2226.9
2304.0
2559.4
Wool
835.1
892.8
1018.3
1091.8
1069.5
1189.5
1214.1
1343.4
1496.4
1657.3
Honey
291.2
304.0
318.4
332.8
331.2
329.6
329.6
368.0
332.8
336.0
Silk cocoons
126.5
128.5
130.6
132.1
135.1
124.4
143.3
121.9
144.3
151.0
Livestock change
272.0
1709.1
-453.8
888.2
-191.5
1695.7
2595.1
3425.9
3053.5
2657.5
Gross livestock output
20877.6
22347.4
21361.6
24757.0
25254.1
28447.8
31272.1
35398.2
36729.1
40172.6
Net livestock output
17321.1
18740.5
17671.1
20743.1
20941.2
24360.5
26328.3
28668.4
29714.9
33045.1
Index (1970=100)
38.444
41.594
39.221
46.039
46.479
54.068
58.436
63.630
65.952
73.343
Annual growth (percent)
0.0
8.19
-5.71
17.38
0.96
16.33
8.08
8.89
3.65
11.21
Total net farm output
38130.6
35769.0
37631.6
40270.1
41152.0
46487.1
52940.9
52854.2
57188.0
58688.6
Index (1970=100)
45.634
42.808
45.037
48.195
49.250
55.635
63.359
63.255
68.442
70.237
Annual growth (percent)
0.0
-6.19
5.21
7.01
2.19
12.96
13.88
-0.16
8.20
2.62
Three-year moving average
37177.1
37890.2
39684.5
42636.4
46860.0
50760.7
54327.7
56243.6
57956.6
Index (1970=100)
46.264
47.151
49.384
53.058
58.314
63.168
67.607
69.991
72.122
Annual growth (percent)
0.0
1.92
4.74
7.44
9.91
8.32
7.03
3.53
3.05
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Table A-1
USSR: Value of Net Agricultural Output, 1950-79 (continued)
Million rubles
ts.)
�..0
0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Total grain
9184.4
10278.5
11045.6
7665.9
11389.2
9012.5
13387.2
11120.4
13425.6
11884.0
Food grains
6024.6
6473.1
6916.1
4306.0
6625.2
5817.9
9302.5
7141.4
9053.6
6957.4
Feed grains
3159.9
3805.3
4129.5
3359.8
4764.0
3194.6
4084.7
3979.0
4372.0
4926.6
Potatoes
7638.0
7683.6
6058.8
6348.0
8834.1
8243.7
8197.5
9078.4
9851.0
8708.3
Vegetables
2625.2
2599.0
2571.7
2308.1
3016.4
2836.3
2907.3
3188.5
3050.2
3003.9
Oil crops
796.7
1006.0
1002.0
928.8
1235.6
1127.3
1332.0
1393.5
1402.3
1265.7
Fruits, berries, nuts
1393.6
1424.1
1685.8
1807.9
1936.2
2284.2
2201.0
2528.4
2995.1
2669.7
Sugarbeets
1357.1
1241.3
1142.6
1077.8
1979.2
1755.0
1812.6
2121.1
2188.4
1697.4
Cotton
2380.4
2507.5
2388.7
2891.5
2933.2
3142.4
3319.5
3313.3
3299.5
3167.9
Tobacco
214.9
208.6
212.8
254.5
383.8
352.5
371.3
448.5
448.5
406.8
Makhorka
40.7
19.2
17.5
16.3
25.0
25.0
22.1
18.6
26.8
22.7
Fiber flax
996.2
935.3
1012.6
890.7
811.0
1125.1
1080.6
1136.8
942.3
1141.5
Tea
153.9
151.9
168.2
183.9
182.1
185.2
223.9
220.3
215.3
229.9
Total crops
26781.2
28054.9
27306.2
24373.5
32725.9
30089.4
34855.0
34567.9
37844.8
34197.8
Index (1970=100)
69.558
72.866
70.921
63.304
84.997
78.150
90.527
89.782
98.293
88.821
Annual growth (percent)
4.44
4.76
-2.67
-10.74
34.27
-8.06
15.84
-0.82
9.48
-9.64
Meat
20359.3
20256.9
22002.4
23687.8
19334.2
23111.6
24924.9
26857.7
27282.6
27683.6
Milk
12096.7
12262.7
12530.5
12004.6
12399.4
14222.3
14894.4
15664.3
16129.8
15981.8
Eggs
2746.4
2930.9
3008.9
2852.3
2669.4
2906.8
3167.2
3392.1
3567.9
3719.0
Wool
1659.1
1703.3
1727.0
1733.1
1584.3
1659.6
1724.7
1834.4
1930.2
1812.1
Honey
337.0
396.8
328.0
350.4
342.4
306.4 ,
365.3
337.8
326.6
285.8
Silk cocoons
151.5
' 147.4
156.1
172.9
169.8
177.5
177.0
188.2
184.1
182.1
Livestock change
1459.8
4462.3
2844.7
-6476.0
2541.7
4278.2
1696.9
-1043.1
-777.6
793.6
Gross livestock output
38809.8
42160.3
42597.6
34325.0
39041.1
46662.4
46950.3
47231.4
48643.6
50458.0
Net livestock output
31211.8
34086.2
34005.8
26262.6
31898.0
39083.3
37482.3
37753.0
38747.1
40126.6
Index (1970=100)
69.275
75.654
75.476
58.290
70.797
86.745
83.192
83.793
85.999
89.061
Annual growth (percent)
-5.55
9.21
-0.24
-22.77
21.46
21.53
-4.10
0.72
2.63
3.56
Total net farm output
57993.1
62141.1
61312.0
50636.1
64623.8
69172.6
72337.3
72321.0
76591.9
74324.4
Index (1970=100)
69.405
74.369
73.377
60.600
77.341
82.785
86.572
86.552
91.664
88.950
Annual growth (percent)
-1.19
7.15
-1.33
-17.41
27.62
7.04
4.57
-0.02
5.91
-2.96
Three-year moving average
59607.6
60482.0
58029.7
58857.3
61477.5
68711.2
71276.9
73750.1
74412.4
78157.9
Index (1970=100)
74.177
75.265
72.214
73.243
76.504
85.506
88.699
91.776
92.601
97.262
Annual growth (percent)
2.85
1.47
-4.05
1.43
4.45
11.77
3.73
3.47
0.90
5.03
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-1
USSR: Value of Net Agricultural Output, 1950-79 (continued)
Million rubles
ts..)
.c.
1-...
1975
1977
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1976
1978
1979
Total grain
13657.2
13911.7
12956.9
16293.9
14383.2
10466.8
16450.8
14109.8
17966.9
13340.6
Food grains
8777.9
9228.5
7981.8
9663.8
7956.4
6241.8
9004.3
8021.5
11237.4
8284.8
Feed grains
4879.3
4683.2
4975.1
6630.1
6426.9
4225.0
7446.5
6088.4
6729.5
5055.8
Potatoes
9286.6
8852.8
7219.7
10598.3
7507.4
8398.4
8166.6
8005.6
8292.8
8860.1
Vegetables
3460.0
3399.4
3252.2
4227.6
4047.1
3808.7
4076.3
3938.9
4549.5
4437.2
Oil crops
1303.6
1218.5
1021.6
1517.8
1371.7
1121.6
1126.3
1229.1
1180.0
1149.3
Fruits, berries, nuts
3296.6
3470.6
2698.7
3765.0
3508.4
4014.3
4303.3
4307.5
4053.5
4597.4
Sugarbeets
1856.0
1672.6
1769.1
2022.8
1754.6
1608.9
2213.7
2206.6
2081.6
1801.8
Cotton
3823.9
3941.1
4049.3
4253.5
4667.0
4364.5
4594.3
4860.7
4717.5
5084.4
Tobacco
475.6
479.8
573.6
569.5
609.1
598.7
623.7
625.8
569.5
615.4
Makhorka
17.5
14.0
9.9
15.1
10.5
5.2
7.0
4.1
4.1
2.9
Fiber flax
, 1068.9
1139.2
100.9
1038.4
942.3
1155.6
1193.1
1125.1
881.3
743.0
Tea
256.3-
263.4
273.6
287.1
310.1
331.2
352.9
408.1
426.6
451.2
Total crops
38502.2
38363.0
34893.5
44589.0
39111.3
35873.8
43108.0
40821.5
44723.3
41083.5
Index (1970-100)
100.000
99.639
90.628
415.809
101.582
93.174
111.963
106.024
116.158
106.704
Annual growth (percent)
12.59
-0.36
-9.04
27.79
-12.28
-8.28
20.17
-5.30
9.56
-8.14
Meat
28797.7
31095.5
32150.8
31828.1
34402.8
35378.1
32390.0
34762.2
36557.3
36517.0
Milk
16271.1
16303.9
16303.5
17306.8
17985.0
17797.6
17576.3
18606.1
18556.7
18294.8
Eggs
4074.0
4510.0
4791.0
5115.4
5550.9
5736.7
5618.7
6119.4
6451.7
6558.5
Wool
1947.9
1993.9
1953.5
2014.8
2146.4
2169.7
2025.1
2134.3
2171.5
2194.8
Honey
336.0
315.2
294.4
353.6
318.9
310.4
300.8
332.8
286.4
302.4
Silk COCOCIAS
171.9
187.2
211.1
203.5
197.4
199.4
230.0
219.8
237.1
239.7
Livestock change
4366.8
2341.6
-99.0
1974.6
1973.4
-2084.8
832.3
2803.2
1509.6
738.6
Gross livestock output
55965.3
56747.3
55605.3
58796.9
62574.7
59507.0
58973.2
64977.9
65770.4
64845.9
Net livestock output
45055.3
44830.7
43648.0
45495.3
50730.0
46141.8
45534.9
51932.3
51057.1
49114.9
Index (1970=100)
100.000
99.502
96.877
100.977
112.595
102.412
101.064
115.264
113.321
109.010
Annual growth (percent)
12.28
-0.50
-2.64
4.23
11.51
-9.04
-1.32
14.05
-1.69
-3.80
Total net farm output
83557.4
83193.7
78541.6
90084.3
89841.3
82015.7
88642.9
92753.8
95780.4
90198.4
Index (1970=100)
100.000
99.565
93.997
107.811
106.520
98.155
106.086
111.006
114.628
107.948
Annual growth (percent)
12.42
-0.44
-.5.59
14.70
-0.27
-8.71
8.08
4.64
3.26
-5.83
Three-year moving average
80358.5
81764.2
83939.8
86155.7
87313.7
86833.3
87804.1
92392.4
92910.9
90731.8
Index (1970=100)
100.000
101.749
104.457
107.214
108.655
108.057
109.265
114.975
115.620
112.909
Annual growth (percent)
2.82
1.75
2.66
2.64
1.34
-0.55
1.12
5.23
0.56
-2.35
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-2
Gross Output of Crops Used in
CIA Index of Soviet Agricultural Output
Thousand metric tons
N.)
�.0
l�-)
Prices a
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Wheat"
103.
31076.0
32400.0
43800.0
41276.0
42399.0
47289.0
67380.0
58113.0
76568.0
69101.0
Rye"
116.
17961.0
19400.0
15500.0
14514.0
15590.0
16475.0
14096.0
14467.0
15737.0
16902.0
Buckwheat b
306.
1329.0
1000.0
1200.0
762.0
935.0
1253.0
1285.0
769.0
664.0
381.0
Rice"
306.
202.0
200.0
200.0
222.0
222.0
246.0
250.0
211.0
216.0
214.0
Corn for grain"
138.
6644.0
4400.0
5700.0
3697.0
3699.0
11574.0
9861.0
4621.0
10226.0
5653.0
Oats"
82.
13005.0
10000.0
12900.0
10074.0
10799.0
11827.0
13218.0
12729.0
13407.0
13463.0
Barley b
81.
6354.0
6400.0
8200.0
7875.0
7764.0
10350.0
12903.0
8480.0
12957.0
10150.0
Millet b
81.
1705.0
3200.0
2500.0
2681.0
3013.0
2956.0
4556.0
1559.0
2880.0
1299.0
Pulses b
113.
2048.0
1300.0
1700.0
1122.0
923.0
1345.0
1018.0
1284.0
1577.0
1907.0
Other grain"
61.
876.0
400.0
500.0
264.0
224.0
372.0
384.0
406.0
490.0
468.0
Total grain
81200.0
78700.0
92200.0
82487.0
85568.0
103687.0
124951.0
102639.0
134722.0
119538.0
Potatoes"
114.
88612.0
58754.0
69189.0
72572.0
75021.0
71751.0
96015.0
87813.0
86527.0
86561.0
Beets
108.
589.0
548.0
596.0
683.0
703.0
818.0
815.0
827.0
818.0
798.0
Cabbage
95.
4364.0
4065.0
4427.0
5091.0
5244.0
6105.0
6091.0
6187.0
6139.0
5998.0
Carrots
153.
551.0
521.0
567.0
661.0
679.0
790.0 /
801.0
827.0
818.0
798.0
Cucumbers
212.
626.0
636.0
753.0
934.0
1037.0
1297.0
1401.0
1521.0
1605.0
1669.0
Onions
430.
533.0
530.0
606.0
740.0
799.0
987.0
1044.0
1107.0
1159.0
1182.0
Tomatoes
168.
2261.0
2138.0
2375.0
2756.0
2896.0
3440.0
3474.0
3588.0
3612.0
3605.0
Other vegetables
99.
420.0
- '398.0
450.0
524.0
560.0
663.0
672.0
709.0
714.0
724.0
Total vegetables
163.
9344.0
8836.0
9774.0
11389.0
11918.0
14100.0
14298.0
14766.0
14865.0
14774.0
Fruits, berries
282.
2850.0
2969.0
3088.0
3208.0
3510.0
3830.0
3440.0
4944.0
4846.0
4951.0
Sugarbeets
26.
19705.0
23377.0
21991.0
22891.0
19523.0
30664.0
31457.0
38535.0
51023.0
41369.0
Cotton
555.
3539.0
3727.0
3780.0
3853.0
4200.0
3881.0
4332.0
4211.0
4340.0
4645.0
Tobacco
2086.
59.0
66.0
73.0
81.0
93.0
81.0
79.0
102.0
100.0
112.0
Makhorka
582.
86.0
85.0
83.0
82.0
68.0
108.0
119.0
88.0
102.0
71.0
Sunflower seed b
187.
1654.2
1599.9
2028.6
2419.6
1756.3
3493.2
3631.2
2576.9
4255.9
2777.5
Soybeans
260.
166.0
145 0
_ �
142.0
172.0
56.0
151.0
114.0
162.0
229.0
224.0
Other oil crops
402.
316.0
316.0
443.0
308.0
209.0
302.0
359.0
257.0
295.0
167.0
Total oil crops
203.
2136.2
2060.9
2613.6
2899.6
2021.3
3946.2
4104.2
2995.9
' 4779.9
3168.5
Fiber flax
2344.
255.0
193.0
213.0
162.0
218.0
381.0
521.0
440.0
438.0
364.0
Tea
940.
84.9
94.9
97.7
110.0
110.2
121.0
110.0
112.4
138.2
145.7
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-2
Gross Output of Crops Used in
CIA Index of Soviet Agricultural Output (continued)
Thousand metric tons
ts.)
V)
t...)
Prices a
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966 1967
1968
1969
Wheat"
103.
64299.0
66483.0
70778.0
49688.0
74399.0
59686.0
100499.0 77419.0
93393.0
79917.0
Rye"
116.
16357.0
16716.0
17024.0
11878.0
13619.0
16228.0
13146.0 12986.0
14120.0
10945.0
Buckwheat"
306.
639.0
867.0
871.0
498.0
714.0
950.0
935.0 1175.0
1472.0
1375.0
Rice b
- 306.
186.5
246.8
272.1
376.5
470.6
583.4
712.1 895.4
1063.2
1106.9
Corn for grain b
138.
9823.0
17113.0
15474.0
111410
13849.0
8030.0
8416.0 9163.0
8828.0
11954.0
Oats"
82.
11999.0
8900.0
5691.0
3965.0
5519.0
6186.0
9199.0 11581.0
11639.0
13070.0
Barley b
81.
16021.0
13338.0
19549.0
19804.0
28597.0
20304.0
27879.0 24662.0
28904.0
32652.0
Millet"
81.
3230.0
2887.0
2783.0
1835.0
3485.0
2205.0
3101.0 3218.0
2660.0
3289.0
Pulses b
113.
2706.0
4036.0
7579.0
8029.0
11110.0
6689.0
7031.0 6550.0
7212.0
7846.0
Other grain b
, 61.
229.5
203.2
161.9
275.5
308.4
279.6
265.9 237.6
248.8
247.1
Total grain
125490.0
130790.0
140183.0
107492.0
152071.0
121141.0
_ _ _ _
171184.0 147887.0
169540.0
162402.0
Potatoes b
114.
84374.0
84310.0
69677.0
71834.0
93642.0
88676.0
_
87853.0 95464.0
102184.0
91779.0
Beets
108.
878.0
711.0
688.0
697.0
895.0
917.0
1018.0 1006.0
1046.0
1125.0
Cabbage
95.
6613.0
6137.0
6140.0
5879.0
7125.0
6504.0
6054.0 7577.0
6369.0
6298.0
Carrots
153.
878.0
877.0
861.0
682.0
1129.0
987.0
964.0 1047.0
1103.0
1331.0
Cucumbers
212.
1956.0
1631.0
1487.0
1515.0
2219.0
1410.0
1750.0 2053.0
1787.0
1725.0
Onions
430.
1376.0
1421.0
1471.0
1000.0
1246.0
1639.0
1661.0 1417.0
1559.0
1575.0
Tomatoes
168.
4044.0
4587.0
4429.0
4294.0
5587.0
5129.0
5143.0 6078.0
5893.0
5436.0
Other vegetables
99.
829.0
792.0
911.0
984.0
1266.0
1041.0
1267.0 1356.0
1254.0
1255.0
Total vegetables
163.
16574.0
16151.0
15989.0
15051.0
19467.0
17627.0
17857.0 20534.0
19011.0
18745.0
Fruits, berries
282.
4942.0
5050.0
5978.0
6411.0
6866.0
8100.0
7805.0 8966.0
10621.0
9467.0
Sugarbeets
26.
52198.0
47742.0
43946.0
41455.0
76124.0
67500.0
6015.0 81579.0
84168.0
65283.0
Cotton
555.
4289.0
4518.0
4304.0
5210.0
5285.0
5662.0
5981.0 5970.0
5945.0
5708.0
Tobacco
2086.
103.0
100.0
102.0
122.0
184.0
169.0
178.0 215.0
215.0
195.0
Makhorka
582.
70.0
33.0
30.0
28.0
43.0
43.0
38.0 32.0
46.0
39.0
Sunflower seed "
187.
3049.6
4372.8
4411.4
3942.2
5573.4
5013.1
5658.0 6079.4
6150.2
5849.4
Soybeans
260.
167.0
336.0
392.0
448.0
286.0
421.0
590.0 548.0
531.0
437.0
Other oil crops
402.
176.0
251.0
187.0
187.0
296.0
200.0
300.0 284.0
284.0
145.0
Total oil crops
203.
3992.6
4959.8
4990.4
4577.2
6155.4
5634.1
6548.0 6911.4
6965.2
6431.4
Fiber flax
2344.
425.0
399.0
432.0
380.0
346.0
480.0
461.0 485.0
402.0
487.0
Tea
940.
163.7
161.6
178.9
195.6
193.7
197.0
238.2 234.4
229.0
244.6
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Table A-2
Gross Output of Crops Used in
CIA Index of Soviet Agricultural Output (continued)
Thousand metric tons
l�-)
vD
-P.
Prices a
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Wheat"
103.
99734.0
98760.0
85993.0
109784.0
83913.0
66224.0
96882.0
92200.0
120820.0
90207.0
Rye"
116.
12972.0
12787.0
9633.0
10759.0
15223.0
9064.0
13991.0
8471.0
13607.0
8113.0
Buckwheat"
306.
1081.0
1170.0
811.0
1304.0
974.0
485.0
897.0
1038.0
985.0
836.0
Rice"
306.
1279.3
1429.5
1647.2
1765.0
1913.3
2009.3
2001.0
2220.0
2110.0
2394.0
Corn for grain b
138.
9428.0
8597.0
9830.0
13216.0
12104.0
7328.0
10138.0
10993.0
8951.0
8373.0
Oats"
82.
14203.0
14600.0
14100.0
17516.0
15302.0
12495.0
18113.0
18379.0
18600.0
15162.0
Barley"
81.
38200.0
34600.0
36800.0
55044.0
54208.0
35808.0
69539.0
52653.0
62077.0
47954.0
Millet"
81.
2100.0
2043.0
2123.0
4416.0
2907.0
1125.0
3198.0
2009.0
2210.0
1553.0
Pulses"
113.
7619.0
6948.0
7103.0
8447.0
8714.0
5321.0
8651.0
7477.0
7748.0
4343.0
Other grain b
61.
179.0
240.0
198.0
279.0
450.0
259.0
345.0
260.0
282.0
241.0
Total grain
186795.3 '
181174.5
168238.2
222530.0
195708.3
140118.3
223755.0
195700.0
237390.0
179176.0
Potatoes"
114.
96783.0
92655.0
78329.0
108200.0
81022.0
88703.0
85102.0
83652.0
86124.0
90956.0
Beets
108.
1188.0
1167.0
1117.0
1451.9
1389.0
1308.0
1400.0
1352.0
1563.0
1524.0
Cabbage
95.
7488.0
7356.0
7037.0
9147.0
8733.0
8243.0
8822.0
8525.0
9794.0
9552.0
Carrots
153.
1294.0
1271.0
1214.0
1576.4
1513.0
1424.0
1524.0
1473.0
1702.0
1660.0
Cucumbers
212.
2291.0
2250.0
2154.0
2800.1
2680.0
2522.0
2699.0
2608.0
3013.0
2939.0
Onions
430.
2015.0
1980.0
1892.0
2457.9
2357.0
2218.0
23/4.0
2294.0
2651.0
2585.0
Tomatoes
168.
5558.0
5462.0
5231.0
6800.7
6500.0
6118.0
6548.0
6327.0
7282.0
7103.0
Other vegetables
99.
1378.0
1354.0
1296.0
1693.0
1639.0
1518.0
1624.0
1570.0
1897.0
1851.0
Total vegetables
163.
21212.0
20840.0
19941.0
25927.0
24811.0
23351.0
24991.0
24149.0
27902.0
27215.0
Fruits, berries
282.
11690.0
12307.0'
''. 9570.0
13351.0
12441.0
14235.0
15260.0
15275.0
14374.0
16303.0
Sugarbeets
26.
71385.0
64329.0
68043.0
77799.0
67484.0
61880.0
85142.0
84869.0
80061.0
69300.0
Cotton
555.
6890.0
7101.0
7296.0
7664.0
8409.0
7864.0
8278.0
8758.0
8500.0
9161.0
Tobacco
2086.
228.0
230.0
275.0
273.0
292.0
287.0
299.0
300.0
273.0
295.0
Makhorka
582.
30.0
24.0
17.0
26.0
18.0
9.0
12.0
7.0
7.0
5.0
Sunflower seed b
187.
5652.5
52 f 0.0
4644.2
6794.2
6241.3
4590.8
4854.8
5431.7
4906.4
4980.9
Soybeans
260.
602.0
536.0
258.0
424.0
360.0
780.0
480.0
524.0
634.0
467.0
Other oil crops
402.
224.0
261.0
214.0
341.0
276.0
150.0
233.0
192.0
243.0
240.0
Total oil crops
203.
6478.5
6007.0
5116.2
7559.2
6877.3
5520.8
5567.8
6147.7
5783.4
5687.9
Fiber flax
2344.
456.0
486.0
456.0
443.0
402.0
493.0
509.0
480.0
376.0
317.0
Tea
940.
272.7
280.2
291.1
305.4
329.9
352.3
375.4
434.2
453.8-
480.0
a 1970 average realized prices; rubles per metric ton.
b Gross output; includes seed, feed, and waste. See table A-1 for the
value of net output.
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tv
cm
Table A-3
USSR: Output .of Livestock Products and Livestock Inventories
Thousand metric tons
Component
Prices a
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Meat
Beef and veal
2454.
2355.0
2000.0
2200.0
2090.0
2091.0
2181.0
2348.0
2407.0
2715.0
3226.0
Pork ,
2252. .
1478.0
1673.0
1813.0
2305.0
2715.0
2529.0
2666.0
3344.0
3264.0
3633.0
Mutton and kid
1824.
690.0
500.0
700.0
714.0
709.0
826.0
829.0
777.0
885.0
1063.0
Poultry
2368.
278.0
400.0
400.0
513.0
480.0
455.0
475.0
584.0
600.0
731.0
Other meat
3601.
66.0
98.0
57.0
200.0
286.0
333.0
280.0
262.0
236.0
263.0
Total
2351.
4867.0
4671.0
5170.0
5822.0
6281.0
6324.0
6598.0
7374.0
7700.0
8916.0
Other livestock products
_
Milk
196.
35311.0
36200.0
35700.0
36475.0
38197.0
43009.0
49111.0
54750.0
58674.0
61716.0
Eggs (million eggs)
100.
11697.0
13300.0
14400.0
16059.0
17179.0
18481.0
19532.0
22269.0
23040.0
25594.0
Wool
4650.
179.6
192.0
219.0
234.8
230.0
255.8
261.1
288.9
321.8
356.4
Honey
1600.
182.0
190.0 '
199.0
208.0
207.0
206.0
206.0
230.0
208.0
210.0
Silk cocoons
5100.
24.8
25.2
25.6
25.9
26.5
24.4
28.1
23.9
28.3
29.6
Livestock inventories
(1 January, thousand
head)
Cattle
442.
58100.0
57089.0
58800.0
56624.0
55837.0
56669.0
58793.0
61444.0
66766.0
70842.0
Hogs
173.
22200.0
24372.0
27100.0
28506.0
33318.0
30921.0
34003.0
40844.0
44336.0
48680.0
Sheep and goats
37.
93600.0
98953.0
107600.0
109930.0
115473.0
112971.0
116247.0
119812.0
130123.0
139175.0
Poultry (million
birds)
5.
� 263.8
292.8
325.0
360.7
400.4
390.0
410.5
432.1
449.7
482.8
Component
Prices
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Meat
Beef and veal
2454.
3252.0
2864.0
3277.0
3741.0
3571.0
3917.0
4377.0
5081.0
5513.0
5569.0
. Pork
2252.
3276.0
3704.0
4011.0
4267.0
2813.0
4143.0
4465.0
4456.0
4079.0
4094.0
Mutton and kid
1824.
1019.0
1006.0
1062.0
1119.0
1052.0
1013.0
933.0
1028.0
1029.0
969.0
Poultry
2368. .
766.0
813.0
822.0
802.0
606.0
696.0
745.0
764.0
817.0
866.0
Other meat
3601.
369.0
313.0
290.0
266.0
245.0
187.0
184.0
186.0
210.0
272.0
Total
2351.
8682.0
8700.0
9462.0
10195.0
8287.0
9956.0
10704.0
11515.0
11648.0
11770.0
Other livestock
products
Milk _
196.
61718.0
62565.0
63931.0
61248.0
63262.0
72563.0
75992.0
31672.0
79920.0
82295.0
81540.0
37190.0
Eggs (million eggs)
100.
27464.0
29309.0
30089.0
28523.0
26694.0
29068.0
33921.0
35679.0
Wool
4650.
356.8
366.3
371.4
372.7
340.7
356.9
370.9
394.5
415.1
389.7
Honey
1600.
210.6
248.0
205.0
219.0
214.0
191.5
228.3
211.1
204.1
178.6
Silk cocoons
5100.
29.7
28.9
30.6
33.9
33.3
34.8
34.7
36.9
36.1
35.7
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Table A-3
USSR: Output of Livestock Products andlivestock Inventories (continued)
Thousand metric tons
Component
Prices a
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Livestock inventories
(1 January, thousand
head)
Cattle
442.
74233.0
75780.0
82077.0
86988.0
85448.0
87171.0
93436.0
97111.0
97167.0
95735.0
Hogs
173.
53443.0
58674.0
66702.0
69964.0
40858.0
52843.0
59576.0
58028.0
50867.0
49047.0
Sheep and goats
37.
143964.0
140304.0
144498.0
146410.0
139560.0
130674.0
135316.0
141042.0
144041.0
146141.0
Poultry (million
birds)
5.
514.3
515.6
542.6
550.4
449.1
456.2
490.7
516.4
528.4
546.9
Component
Prices a
1976
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Meat
N.)
0
Beef and veal
2454.
5393.0
5536.0
5715.0
5873.0
6384.0
6400.0
6552.0
6888.0
7086.0
7029.0
Pork
2252.
4543.0
5277.0
5413.0
5081.0
5515.0
5600.0
4228.0
4950.0
5302.0
5289.0
Mutton and kid
1824.
1002.0
996.0
901.0
954.0
974.0
1000.0
878.0
894.0
921.0
870.0
Poultry
2368.
1071.0
1183.0
1203.0
1295.0
1420.0
1500.0
1414.0
1691.0
1902.0
2017.0
Other meat
3601.
269.0
280.0
401.0
324.0
327.0
468.0
511.0
299.0
290.0
276.0
Total
2351.
12278.0
13272.0
13633.0
13527.0
14620.0
14968.0
13583.0
14722.0
15501.0
15481.0
Other livestock
products
Milk
196.
83016.0
83183.0
83181.0
88300.0
91760.0
90804.0
89675.0
94929.0
94677.0
93341.0
Eggs (million eggs)
100.
40740.0
45100.0
47910.0
51154.0
55509.0
57367.0
56187.0
61194.0
64517.0
65585.0
Wool
4650.
418.9
428.8
420.1
433.3
461.6
466.6
435.5
459.0
467.0
472.0
Honey
1600.
210.0
197.0
184.0
221.0
199.3
194.0
188.0
208.0
179.0
189.0
Silk cocoons
5100.
33.7
36.7
41.4
39.9
38.7
39.1
45.1
43.1
46.0
47.0
Livestock inventories
(1 January, thousand
head)
Cattle
442.
95162.0
99225.0
102434.0
104006.0
106266.0
109122.0
111034.0
110346.0
112690.0
114086.0
Hogs
173.
56055.0
67483.0
71434.0
66593.0
70032.0
72273.0
57899.0
63055.0
70511.0
73484.0
Sheep and goats
37.
135803.0
143421.0
145333.0
144690.0
148534.0
151232.0
147091.0
145373.0
146611.0
148104.0
Poultry (million
birds)
5.
590.3
652.7
686.5
700.0
747.7
792.4
734.4
796.0
882.3
953.2
a 1970 average realized prices; rubles per metric ton.
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Appendix B
USSR: Average Realized 1970 Prices of
Agricultural Commodities
Grain
The average price received by all producers for all
types of grain (103 rubles per ton) is calculated in
CIA, GNP 1970, p. 32. Average realized prices for
individual types of grain were estimated on the basis
of the variation among procurement prices paid to
collective farms for each grain in 1970 (table B-1).
The ratio of collective farm procurement prices for
individual grains to the overall grain price received by
collective farms is applied to the average grain price
received by all Soviet producers for all grain.
Potatoes
The average price received by all producers (114
rubles per ton) is reported in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 32.
Vegetables
The average price received by all producers (163
rubles per ton) is reported in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 32.
The relationship between state procurement prices for
all vegetables and for individual types of vegetables is
used to estimate average prices received by all produc-
ers for each vegetable (table B-2).
Table B-1
USSR: Derivation of 1970 Average Realized Prices
for Individual Types of Grain
Total grain
Wheat
Rye
Buckwheat
Rice
Corn
Oats
Barley
Millet
Pulses
Other
Estimated Average
Realized Price
(rubles per ton)c
Prices Received by
Collective Farms
(rubles per ton)
Ratio of Prices for
Individual Grains to
Average Price
for All Grain
101 a
1.00
103
101 b
1,00
103
114"
1.13
116
300 c
2.97
306
300d
2.97
306
135 c
1.34
138
81 b
0.80
82
80 b
0.79
81
80 b
0.79
81
111 c
1.10
113
60d
0.59
61
a Vop ek, no. 1, 1973, p. 57.
b Calculated on the basis of data expressing 1970 procurement prices
as a percent of 1965 prices in A. I. Stepanov, Khleb rossii, Moscow,
1973, pp. 275-276 and V.P. Boyev, Zernovoyye i maslichnyye
kurtury, no. 7, 1969, p. 9.
c Actual 1971 procurement prices received by collective (arms. Since
the procurement price for wheat did not change between 1970 and
1971, the 1971 prices for other grains are assumed applicable. The
1971 prices are computed from data in V.P. Boyev, Sovershenstvo-
vaniye zakupochnykh tsen na sel'skokhozyaystvennuyu produkt-
siya, Moscow, p. 156 and in A. Ye. Kaminsk, Ekonomika zernovogo
khozyaystvo, Moscow, 1970, p.188.
a List procurement prices are reported in G. V. Kulik et al.,
Spravochnik economista kolkhoza i sovkhoza, Moscow, 1970, p.
298.
c Calculated by multiplying column 2 times 103 rubles per ton.
297
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Table B-2
USSR: 1970 Average Realized Prices for Vegetables
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RSFSR
Procurement
Zone a
Share of
Procurements
(percent) h
Zone
Procurement
Price
(rubles per ton) c
Weighted Average
Procurement Price
(rubles per ton) d
Ratio of Prices
for Individual Vegetables
to Average Price for
All Vegetables
(rubles per ton) c
Estimated Average
Realized Prices
(rubles per ton) f
All vegetables
106
163 h
Cabbage
61
0.58
95
40
55
II
60
65
Cucumbers
138
1.30
212
60
120
II
40
165
Tomatoes
109
1.03
168
60
90
II
40
137
Table beets
70
0.66
108
40
70
II
60
70
Carrots
100
0.94
153
40
100
II
60
100
Onions
280
2.64
430
40
250
II
60
300
Other
99i
a RSFSR zone I and II procurement prices were selected as
representative because the RSFSR supplied 43 percent of Soviet
vegetable procurements in 1970. Within the RSFSR, Krasnodar
Kray (zone I) and the remainder of the North Caucasus (zone II) are
the largest vegetable suppliers.
h For cabbage, beets, carrots, and onions the price of zones I and II
were weighted together by the respective shares of the two zones in
total vegetable procurements in the North Caucasus in 1970. The
share weights were reversed for tomotoes and cucumbers since the
lowest procurement price is usually paid in the zone where
procurements are largest.
c Prices for late, fresh varieties of the vegetable are from G.V. Kulik
et al., Spravochnik ekonomista kolkhoza i sovkhoza, Moscow,
1970, pp. 329335.
d Weighted 2,..rage prices for individual vegetables are derived by
applying the percentage shares of procurements to the zone
procurement prices.
Weighted average procurement prices for individual types of
vegetables divided by 106 rubles per ton.
f Derived by multiplying ratios described in footnote (g) below by 163
rubles per ton.
The overall USSR procurement price for all vegetables is derived
by summing the ruble value of procurements from state farms,
collective farms, and private producers. The total value is divided by
total quantity procured to derive an overall weighted average price.
Data on total values and quantities procured are from CIA, GNP
1970, p. 32.
h CIA, GNP 1970, p. 32. The aggregate vegetable price is dertved
independently from the prices for individual types of vegetables.
"Other vegetables" are priced at the level needed to result in the
overall price of 163 rubles per ton, using the prices for the six types of
vegetables listed above.
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Table B-3
USSR: Quantities of Fruit Procured, 1970
Thousand tons Table B-4
Total a
Private
Producers b
State
Farms
Collective
Farms
Total
6,180
872
3,170
2,138
Grapes
3,145
255
1,494(c)
1,396(c)
Berries
49
20
1,676(d)
742 (d)
Other fruit
2,986
597
a Data for total fruit procurements and for procurements of grapes
and other fruits are reported in Narkhoz 1972, p. 299. Berry
procurements are derived as a residual by subtracting procurements
of grapes and other fruit from total fruit procurements.
b G. M. Bogush et al., in Sel'skoye khozyaystvo SSSR, Moscow,
1972, p. 95, show percentage shares of total fruit procurements
(6,180 thousand tons) that were obtained from private producers
(14.1 percent). G. G. Badiryan, in Ekonomika sotsialisticheskogo
sel'skokhozyaystva, Moscow, 1971, p. 377, presents data on procure-
ments of berries from the private sector (40 percent) and for other
fruits procured from the private sector (20 percent). Grape procure-
ments from the private sector are derived as a residual by subtracting
private procurements of berries and other fruit from total fruit
procurements from the private sector.
c Total procurements of grapes from the socialized sector are
allocated to state and collective farms according to their respective
shares of fruit production. (Badiryan, op. cit., p. 402).
d Includes berries and other fruits. Derived by subtracting procure-
ments of grapes from total procurements of fruit from these
producers.
Fruit
This category includes berries, grapes, other fruit, and
nuts. The weighted average price (282 rubles per ton),
however, is based on prices for berries, grapes and
other fruit (table B-4). Average procurement prices
are used because not enough data are available on
fruit prices in collective farm markets, commission
trade, and decentralized procurements to calculate
average realized prices. The average procurement
price is derived by weighting prices paid to collective
farms, state farms, and private producers by the
quantities obtained from each. Table 133 shows quan-
tities of fruit procured in 1970. Table B-4 shows the
valuation of procurements and the derivation of the
average procurement price.
Sugarbeets
Sugarbeets are priced at the 1970 price paid to
collective farms for beets sold to state procurement
organizations (26 rubles per ton). The 1970 price is
from Vop ek, no. 1, 1973, p. 57.
299
USSR: 1970 Average Procurement Price for Fruit
Procurements
Quantities a Prices
(thousand tons)
Fruits and berries
Deliveries of state farms and other state
agricultural enterprises
1,676 276b
Procured from collective farms
742 246
Delivered by private producers 617 246
Total or average 3,035 263
Grapes
Deliveries of state farms and other state
agricultural enterprises
1,494 315 b
Procured from collective farms
1,396 287 c
Delivered by private producers 255 287 c
Total or average 3,145 300
Total fruit
Deliveries of state farms and other state
agricultural enterprises
3,170 294b
Procured from collective farms
2,138 273c
Delivered by private producers
872 258 c
Total or average
6,180 282
a Table B-3
b State farm procurement prices are derived from an index for 1970
of fruit procurement prices (1966-100), Ek selkhoz, no. 7, 1972, p 33.
The 1966 prices for fruits, and berries are calculated from Badiryan,
op. cit., p. 379, 389. For grapes, the 1965 price was used ( Vop ek, no.
11, 1966, p.38). Because prices received by all farms per unit of
delivered product were relatively unchanged from 1965 to 1970
(Narkhoz 1979, pp. 230, 260) little error is introduced.
c 0. F. Lopatina and S.V. Frayer, Ekonomika sot sialisticheskogo
sel'skogo khozyaystva, Moscow, 1973, p.413. Collective farm
procurement prices are assumed to be applicable to private
producers.
Cotton
Procurement prices of state farms in 1970 (517 rubles
per ton) and of collective farms (566 rubles per ton)
are weighted with quantities sold to procurement
organizations to obtain an average price of 555 rubles
per ton. The collective farm procurement price is from
Vop ek, no. 1, 1973, p. 57. The state farm price is
calculated from data in Ek selkhoz, no. 7, 1972, p. 33,
and in K.I. Pankova et al., Ekonomiko-statistiches-
koye izucheniye sovkhozov, Moscow, 1969, p. 134.
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Flax seed
113
245
27,685
Mustard seed
68
250
17,000
Castor beans
71
800
56,800
Other
9
375
3,375
Total
261
402
104,860
Flax fiber, tobacco, and makhorka
These commodities are priced at 1970 procurement
prices received by collective farms. Data are from
O.F. Lopatina and S.V. Frayer, Ekonomika sotsialis-
ticheskogo sel'skogo khozaystvo, Moscow, 1973, p.
413.
Table B-5
USSR: Derivation of 1970 Average Prices for Other
Oilseeds
sum of RSFSR procurement prices for peanuts (600
rubles per ton), falseflax (135 rubles per ton) and rape
(170 rubles per ton). Prices are weighted arbitrarily
assuming a 50 percent share for peanuts, 25 percent
for falseflax, and 25 percent for rape (table B-5).
Quantity Procurement Value Tea
Produced (rubles per ton) (thousand
(thousand rubles) Tea is valued at the actual procurement price received
tons) by state and collective farms in 1970 (940 rubles per
Oil crops
The average price for all oil crops (203 rubles per ton)
is the weighted sum of prices for individual crops.
Sunflower seed
The price (187 rubles per ton) is taken from CIA,
GNP 1970, p. 32.
Soybeans
The price (260 rubles per ton) is the RSFSR list
procurement price from G.V. Kulik et al., Spravoch-
nik ekonomista kolkhoza i sovkhoza, Moscow, 1970,
p. 301.
Other
This category includes flax seed, mustard seed, castor
beans, and other minor oilseeds. All prices are
RSFSR list procurement prices from Kulik et al., op.
cit., p. 301. Prices for flax seed, mustard seed, castor
beans and other minor oilseeds are weighted together
with 1971 production data from Vest stat, no. 10,
1974, p. 89. Other minor oilseeds include hemp seed,
tung nuts, peanuts, falseflax, rape, colza, sesame, and
others. The price (402 rubles per ton) is the weighted
ton). Data are from Ye.S. Karnaukhova et al., Ekono-
mika sotsialisticheskogo sel'skogo khozyaystva,
Moscow, 1970, p. 418; and G.G. Badiryan, op. cit., p.
394.
Meat, slaughter weight
The average realized price for all meat (2351 rubles
per ton) is the weighted sum of prices for individual
types of meat (table B-6). To calculate prices for
slaughter weight quantities, the ruble value of live-
weight marketings are divided by slaughter weight
quantities. The underlying assumption is that the
unusable portions (the weight difference between live
weight and slaughter weight) are of zero value.
Milk, eggs, and wool
Average realized prices for milk, eggs, and wool are
from CIA, GNP 1970, p. 32-34. Prices for milk (196
rubles per ton) and eggs (100 rubles per thousand
units) apply both to production and to quantities used
in production for feed (milk) and hatching eggs.
Honey
The price (1600 rubles per ton) is the RSFSR procure-
ment price from G.V. Kulik et al, Spravochnik ekono-
mista kolkhoza i sovkhoza, Moscow, 1970, p. 383.
RSFSR procurement prices were used because 70
percent of all honey originates in this region.
Silk cocoons
Almost half of silk cocoon procurements came from
Uzbekistan in 1970. Narkhoz Uzbekskoy SSR 1971,
pp. 103, 139-140 shows receipts of collective farms
and of private producers from state procurement of
silk cocoons in 1970 as well as quantities sold. The
average procurement price (5100 rubles per ton) is
derived by dividing receipts by quantities sold.
300
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Table B-6
Slaughter weight Table 8-7
USSR: Derivation of 1970 Average Realized Prices
for Individual Types of Meat
Value of
Marketings
(million rubles)a
Quantities
Marketed
(thousand
tons)b
Average
Price
(rubles per
ton)c
Total meat
22,101.4
9,400
2,351
Beef
11,083.4
4,517
2,454
Pork
7,433.0
3,300
2,252
Mutton
1,342.4
736
1,824
Poultry
1,551.3
655
2,368
Other
691.3
192
3,601
a CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 32-34
b Quantities of meat in slaughter weight are estimated by multiply-
ing liveweight marketings by dressing percentages. Liveweight
marketings from the various sales channels are from source a. above,
Table A-1, columns C, D, J, and K. The dressing percentages are:
beef- 58.3 percent; pork -71.9 percent; mutton -51.2 percent;
poultry - 80.0 percent; other meat -50 percent. Dressing percentages
for beef, pork, and mutton are from I.Ye. Mampel' and N. Ya.
Rayskiy, Spravochnik po priyemke i soderzhaniyu skota na
myasokombinatakh, Moscow, 1971, pp. 180-184. Dressing percent-
ages for poultry and for other meat (rabbit) are from A.M. Shafran,
Tablitsy perescheta zhivogo skota v uboynyy i uboynogo zhivoy,
Moscow, 1967, p. 10. �
c. Value of marketings divided by quantities sold.
-
Livestock inventories
Average realized prices per ton of meat, liveweight,
are converted to a price per head basis using the
weight of live anitnals sold to state procurement
organizations. The conversion of rubles per ton of live
weight to rubles per head is shown in table B-7.
Vegetables fed
Feed vegetables are priced at the estimated average
-realized price for cabbage (95 rubles per ton) which is
believed to predominate in vegetables fed. �
Potatoes fed
Feed potatoepare priced at the seasonally low pro-
curement-supply price (63 rubles per ton) which is in
effect from September through December. The price
used applies to the RSFSR, Belorussia, and the
Ukraine where 95 percent of potatoes are produced.
Prices are reported in M.K. Vasunin and A.S. Davy-
dov, Gosudarstvennye zakupi kolkhoznoy produktsii,
Moscow, 1978, p. 85.
301
USSR: Derivation of 1970 Prices for Livestock
Inventories
Weight of Live Price Price per
Animal (rubles per ton) b Animal
(tons per head) a (rubles per
head),
Cattle
.309
1,431
442
Hogs
.107
1,620
173
Sheep and goats
.040
935
37
Poultry (d)
.002
1,896
5
Selkhoz 1971, p. 328.
b CIA, GNP 1970, pp. 32-34.
c Average weight times price per ton.
d Live weight per bird is an average of weights for hens and broilers,
ducks, geese, and turkeys (S. N. Alekseev, Tovarovedeniye myaso-
promyshlennykh zhivotnykh, ptitsy, iproduktov uboya, Moscow,
1972, pp. 99-108). Average weight figures for hens and broilers,
ducks, geese, and turkeys are incorporated into a single average
weight figure for all poultry using a percentage distribution of
mature birds in poultry flocks by type of bird for 1970 (A. V.
Gromova et al., Spravochnik: promyshlennoye ptitsevodstvo, Mos-
cow, 1971, p. 9).
Whole milk fed
Whole milk used for feed is priced at the 1970
average realized price described above.
Grain fed
For 1950-59 annual average prices for grain fed
(table B-8) are estimated by weighting average real-
ized grain prices (table B-1) with weights derived from
grain production statistics. For buckwheat, corn, oats,
barley, millet, pulses, and other grain, quantities used
for seed and a deduction for waste are subtracted
from gross output. The percentage distribution of the
remaining net output is used to weight average real-
ized prices'. The major food grains, wheat and rye, as
well as rice, are excluded from the calculation. For
1960-79, quantities of grain used for seed, food,
industrial use, and export are subtracted from total
supply of each grain (except rice) to derive a residual
quantity available for feed.'" Negative values that
indicate deficits (such as for buckwheat) in 1974-77
are excluded from the calculation. The residual quan-
tity of each grain is priced at the corresponding
average realized price. The weighted average price for
all feed grain varies for year to year according to the
shifts in availability of each type of grain.
" A (ER) 75-68.
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Table B-8.
USSR: Derivation of 1970 Average Prices For Grain Fed
Average
Realized
Prices
(rubles
per ton)
Percentage Distribution of Grain by Type
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Wheat
103
15.3
20.5
27.7
36.1
Rye
116
8.0
6.2
2.3
2.4
Buckwheat
306
4.0
3.6
3.6
2.4
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.2
1.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.7
' 0.2
0.2
Corn
138
25.5
21.2
21.1
17.8
17.3
33.3
25.6
16.9
27.2
18.4
18.9
31.3
23.2
27.9
13.9
Oats
82
38.2
32.0
35.9
34.6
36.6
26.8
28.0
41.8
29.0
39.2
20.5
14.8
8.1
8.5
5.1
Barley
81
18.1
23.5
24.3
29.4
27.0
2.3
28.8
27.9
30.9
30.4
26.7
17.0
26.0
44.0
27.8
Millet
81
6.2
15.2
9.0
12.6
13.7
8.2
12.3
6.1
7.9
4.6
5.8
3.9
2.5
2.7
2.5
Pulses
113
4.9
3.0
4.5
2.8
1.5
2.6
1.4
3.5
3.0
4.8
3.6
4.8
9.4
16.2
11.7
Other
61
3.1
1.5
1.7
.0.3
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.6
0.7
1.8
0.6
0.7
0.1
0.5
0.2
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Average price
(rubles per ton)
106
102
103
98
99
107
102
97
101
95
101
109
106
103
102
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Wheat
103
21.1
52.6
27.6
38.7
22.2
37.6
37.3
31.9
39.6
19.0
18.3
28.1
29.9
40.5
32.6
Rye
116
12.4
1.0
1.6
4.0
0.5
2.4
2.1
0.7
5.3
2.7
2.7
Buckwheat
306
1.1
0.4
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.2
Corn
138
12.7
7.0
12.3
8.7
14.4
7.8
8.6
13.2
10.8
12.3
17.4
12.7
11.7
12.0
18.7
Oats
82
10.6
7.9
15.8
11.8
15.2
12.3
13.9
12.9
9.9
12.0
15.8
10.0
14.2
9.5
11.0
Barley
81
28.8
23.4
30.2
27.0
35.6
32.4
30.8
35.0
32.2
42.9
42.8
40.8
38.7
31.4
35.3
Millet
81
2.2
- 2.1
3.1
1.7
2.9
0.9
0.8
1.0
2.0
1.4
0.9
0.2
0.2
Pulses
113
10.7
5.5
8.3
6.9
8.3
6.3
5.9
5.9
4.4
6.6
5.4
4.5
5.1
3.6
2.3
Other
61
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
190.0
100.0
100.0
. 100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Average price
(rubles per ton)
103
100
100
100
99
97
97
98
98
96
97
97
96
99
100
302
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Appendix C
USSR: Intrasector Use of Agricultural
Output
A. Estimates of Grain and Potatoes Used for Seed
Sown Area. Quantities of grain and potatoes needed
for seed are derived by multiplying estimated seeding
rates by sown area. Table C-1 shows the area sown to
grain and potatoes in 1950-79. Except for winter
wheat, winter rye, and winter barley, sown area
statistics for grain and potatoes are taken from offi-
cial Soviet handbooks as follows:
1979 Vest stat, no. 10, p. 74; Narkhoz 1979, pp. 244-
245.
1978: Narkhoz 1978, pp. 218-219.
1977: Narkhoz 1977, pp. 226-227.
1976 Vest stat, no. 3, 1978, p. 83.
1965, 1970-75: Narkhoz 1975, pp. 347, 353-355. See
also Selkhoz 1971, pp. 120-123; Vest stat, no. 4,
1977, p. 84; Vest stat, no. 5, 1976, p. 86; Vest stat, no.
5, 1975, p. 92; Vest stat, no. 10, 1974, p. 87.
1960, 1966-69: Selkhoz 1971, pp. 109-111, 116-123,
127, 133.
1963-64: Narkhoz 1965, pp. 284, 296-297, 299-301,
305; and Selkhoz 1971, p. 109.
1961-62: Narkhoz 1962, pp. 258-260; Selkhoz 1971,
pp. 108-109; Narkhoz 1964, p. 284.
1950, 1953-59: Selkhoz 1960, pp. 132-133, presents
data for all crops except spring rye. Area sown to corn
for silage and green fodder was derived by subtracting
the area for fully ripe corn from total area sown to
corn. Spring rye data are from Posevnyye ploshchadi
SSSR, vol. 1, Moscow, 1957, p. 7. An arbitrary
estimate of spring rye production was added to official
statistics for winter rye production in 1957 and 1959.
1951-52: Posevnyye ploshchadi SSSR, vol. I, Mos-
cow, 1957, pp. 7, 437, 453, 490, 495. See also volume
II, p. 192. Figures for rice and corn for silage were
interpolated.
Official Soviet statistics on area sown to grain ac-
tually measure the area occupied by sowings at the
completion of spring planting. This definition is more
303
nearly comparable to harvested area than to sown
area. The official statistics understate total sown area
by the number of hectares that were sown the pre-
vious fall but subsequently were lost to winterkill or
used for early spring grazing. As a result, official
statistics on area sown to winter wheat, winter rye and
winter barley must be augmented by estimates of area
sown in the fall but not occupied by winter grain at
the completion of spring planting. Total area sown in
the fall is estimated from information in the Soviet
press. Reports of sown area are made at weekly
intervals from September through late October."'
Area sown as reported by the press is larger than that
reported in the handbooks by the number of hectares
winterkilled or used for early grazing. Table C-2
shows our estimates of atea sown to winter grain after
the adjustment for winterkill and early grazing.
Seeding rates. The quantity of grain used for seed is
estimated by multiplying the sown area figures shown
in table C-1 by seeding rates per.hectare. Seeding
rates for the USSR as a whole (table C-3) are
weighted averages of seeding rates in each republic.
Within republics, seeding rates were compiled for
each oblast, and these seeding rates were weighted
with 1965 sown area from Soviet statistical hand-
books without the adjustment for area lost to winter-
kill and early grazing. The seeding fates are for '
sowings of first-class seed, which must meet the
criteria of 99 percent purity and 95 percent viability.
The seeding rate for potatoes of 19 centners per
hectare is reported in S.A. Ekonomika proiz-
1 vodstva kartofelya, Moscow, 1963, pp. 3, 5.
1" For example, Sel'skaya zhizn', 4 October 1979, reported that 37
million hectares had been sown to winter grain crops and that this
area amounted to 89 percent of the planned sown area. A week
later on 12 October, Sel'skaya zhizn' reported that 38.6 million
hectares had been sown, 93 percent of plan.
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Table C-1
USSR: Area Sown to Grain and Potatoes
Thousand hectares
Area sown to:
Seeding
rate
(c/ha)
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Winter wheat
2.20
13647
16890
18602
19351
17704
19872
16283
20172
19811
19023
Spring wheat
2.00
26044
27400
29100
30533
33611
42172
49121
50523
48447
45578
Rye
2.00
25926
25977
24758
22136
23172
20860
23338
19797
19567
18671
Buckwheat
1.00
2953
2700
2500
2653
2765
2761
2676
2450
1689
1318
Rice
/40
139
139
138
137
136
142
148
113
106
96
Corn for grain
0.23
4829
4100
3900
3485
4293
6176
6604
3256
4402
3547
Oats
/00
16152
17400
16600
15314
15871
14811
15063
14029
14832
14328
Barley
2.00
8607
8133
8640
9638
10728
9908
12040
9230
9771
9756
Millet
030
3767
3300
3500
4081
5453
7683
6369
3570
3729
2698
Pulses
230
3498
2954
2530
2433
2672
2087
2071
1945
2107
2535
Other
1.40
715
621
245
252
290
289
292
220
254
272
Corn for silage
035
0
0
0
0
0
11741
17327
15016
15323
18867
Total grain area
106277
109614
110513
110013
116695
138502
151332
140321
140038
136689
Potatoes
19.00
8534
8449
8207
8307
8709
9091
9197
9778
9525
9540
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Winter wheat
2.20
15299
18865
19744
21847
22582
23784
23933
23955
23256
22176
Spring wheat
2.00
48338
45733
49283
48253
48883
50411
50155
47318
48259
52012
Rye
2.00
20610
18345
18444
20062
19965
19255
16180
15091
15024
14191
Buckwheat
1.00
1418
1891
2287
1824
1383
1794
1844
1723
1703
2043
Rice
, 2.40
95
100
100
100
200
217
248
281
312
328
Corn for grain
0.23
5086
7145
7005
6995
5114
3177
3229
3485
3350
4167
Oats
2.00
12842
11500
6900
5700
5700
6628
7162
8688
8998
9300
Barley
2.00
12422
13557
16378
21172
21964
20022
19669
19405
19714
22968
Millet
030
3783
3800
4299
3965
3549
3253
3252
3802
3050
3376
Pukes
230
3321
4345
7200
10830
10643
6759
5927
5460
5052
5187
Other
1.40
223
262
336
432
340
224
208
164
154
155
Cbrn for silage
035
23079
18511
30134
27187
22300
20227
19880
19560
19001
18462
Total grain area
146516
144054
162110
168367
162623
155751
151687
148932
147873
154365
Potatoes
19.00
9144
8900
8700
8500
8500
8612
8392
8331
8301
8100
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Winter wheat
2.20
23100
23717
21441
19361
24270
23820
23594
27674
27636
24370
Spring wheat
2.00
46725
43341
43513
44815
41066
42392
42219
41318
39776
38964
Rye
2.00
12503
10894
11681
7402
12794
9738
12359
8945
9226
8410
Buckwheat
1.00
1879
1768
1720
1648
1589
1459
1431
1743
1773
1662
Rice
2.40
350
390
421
462
495
500
524
546
580
610
Corn for grain
0.23
3353
3332
4012
4031
3955
2652
3303
3362
2535
3931
Oats
2.00
9250
9600
11400
11900
11500
12100
11296
13026
12097
12239
Barley
2.00
21619
21790
27786
29476
31535
32892
34691
35004
32969
38504
Millet
0.30
2691
2397
2724
2850
2970
2774
2998
3048
2924
2784
Pulses
2.30
5070
5178
5855
6083
5780
5670
5153
5195
5058
5508
Other
1.40
121
130
105
210
333
223
300
183
191
200
Corn for silage
0.35
18010
17800
17900
16900
17100
17300
18114
15557
16695
15469
Total grain area
144671
140337
148558
145138
153387
151520
155982
155601
151460
152651
Potatoes
19.00
8064
7894
7894
8017
7983
7912
7087
7067
7042
6970
304
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Table C-2
USSR: Estimated Area Sown to Winter Grain
Thousand hectares
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1950
1963
1964
Harvested area of
winter grain a
36500
39900
40500
38461
36634
37992
31925
37363
37153
35843
29355
35667
37028
33356
37104
Wheat
12484
15600
17200
17823
15731
18285
12889
18535
18195
17419
12055
17267
18128
16356
19004
Rye
Barley
23592
424
23900
22800
20232
20475
19095
18395
18078
17899
17068
16200
16700
16900
15000
16700
400
500
406
428
612
641
750
1059
1356
1100
1700
2000
2000
1400
Area lost to winterkill
and spring grazing b
3400
3300
3300
3300
4600
3300
8400
3300
3300
3300
7900
3300
3300
11200
7000
Wheat
1163
1290
1402
1528
1973
1587
3394
1637
1616
1604
3244
1598
1616
5491
3578
Rye
2196
1977
1858
1736
2572
1660
4838
1597
1590
1571
4360
1545
1506
5037
3158
Barley
, 41
33
40
36
55
53
168
66
94
125
296
157
178
672
264
Total sown area
Winter wheat
13647
16890
18602
19351
17704
19872
16283
20172
19811
19023
15299
18865
19744
21847
22582
VVinterandspingrye
23730
24000
22900
20400
20400
19200
18500
18200
17977
17100
16250
16800
16938
15025
16807
Area lost
2196
1977
1858
1736
2572
1660
4838
1597
1590
1571
4360
1545
1506
5037
3158
Total rye
25926
25977
24758
22136
23172
20860
23338
19797
19567
18671
20610
18345
18444
20062
19965
Winter and spring
barley
8566
8100
8600
9602
10673
9855
11872
9164
9679
9631
12126
13400
16200
20500
21700
Area lost
,41
33
40
36
55
53
168
66
94
125
296
157
178
672
264
Total barley
8607
8133
8640
9638
10728
9908
12040
9230
9773
9756
12422
13557
16378
21172
21964
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Table C-2 Thousand hectares
USSR: Estimated Area Sown to Winter Grain (continued)
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1972
1974
1975
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1973
1976
1977
1978
1979
Harvested area of
winter grain a _
37194
34863
33408
32772
24514
29805
31494
24339
26952
29920
29203
27453
28868
32271
26687
Wheat
19794
19803
19708
18972
14414
18505
20694
14979
18340
18610
19593
17248
20712
23122
18858
Rye
16000
13560
12400
12200
9200
10000
9500
8160
7012
9810
8010
9035
6697
7719
6499
Barley
1400
1500
1300
1600
900
1300
1300
1200
1600
1500
1600
1170
1459
1430
1330
Area lost to winterkill and
and spring grazing b
7500
7000
7200
7400
13200
7400
4600
10500
1500
9100
6300
10100
9700
6300
7800
Wheat
3990
4130
4247
4284
7762
4595
3023
6462
1021
5660
4227
6346
6962
4514
5512
Rye
3225
2597
2673
2755
4954
2483
1387
3521
390
2984
1728
3324
2248
1507
1900
Barley
285
273
280
361
484
322
190
517
89
456
345
430
490
279
388
Total Sown Area
Winter wheat C
23784
23933
23955
23256
22176
23100
23717
21441
19361
24270
23820
23594
27674
27636
24370
Winter and spring rye
16030
13583
12418
12269
9237
10020
9507
8160
7012
9810
8010
9035
6697
7719
6510
Area lost
3225
2597
2673
2755
4954
2483
1387
3521
390
2984
1728
3324
2248
1507
1900
Total rye
19255
16180
15091
15024
14191
12503
10894
11681
7402
12794
9738
12359
8945
9226
8410
Winter and spring
barley
19737
19396
19125
19353
22484
21297
21600
27269
29387
31079
32547
34261
34514
32690
38116
Area lost
285
273
280
361
484
322
190
517
89
456
345
430
490
279
388
Total barley
20022
19669
19405
19714
22968
21619
21790
27786
29476
31535
32892
34691
35004
32969
38504
a Official Soviet statistics. See the discussion for sources.
b Total area lost is allocated to wheat, rye, and barley according to
the distribution of harvested area.
c Harvested area plus area lost.
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The most complete data on grain seeding are available
for oblasts of the RSFSR (G. V. Kulik et al., Spra-
vochnik ekonomista kolkhoza i sovkhoza, Moscow,
1970, pp. 417-428). Data are also available for Belo-
russia (I. M. Kachuro et al., Normativnye materialy
po serskomu khozyaystvu, Minsk, 1969, p. 46-50)
and for Moldavia (F. Goryachenko, Spravochnik
ekonomista po planirovaniyu v kolkhozakh i sovkho-
zakh, Kishinev, 1967, p. 189). Seeding rates for all
other Soviet republics are estimated from these three
sources. Seeding in nonchernozem oblasts of the
Ukraine is estimated at the rate for Belorussia while
the remaining Ukrainian oblasts are assumed compa-
rable to Rostov oblast in the North Caucasus. Kok-
chetav and Northern Kazakhstan are equated with
Omsk in Western Siberia; all other Kazakhstan ob-
lasts are assumed seeded at rates for Orenburg in the
Ural region. Belorussian seeding rates are applied to
the Baltic republics. The Central Asian republics of
Kirgizia, Tadzhikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekis-
tan are assumed comparable to the Kalmyk and
Dagestan ASSRs. The Dagestan analog is also used
for Azerbaydzhan, Armenia, and Georgia.
For pulse crops, a weighted seeding rate for each
republic was derived by combining sown area with
seeding rates for peas, kidney beans, lentils, other
pulses, as well as vetch, lupin, and seradella for grain.
Belorussian seeding rates for each pulse crop are
assumed applicable to the Baltic republics; rates for
Moldavia are available from Goryachenko, and all-
RSFSR rates were used for remaining republics.
Corn for silage and green fodder is assumed sown in
all republics at the midpoint of the range 30 to 40
kilograms per hectare, given as the all-USSR seeding
rate in S.D. Kosaurov et al, Norrnativnyy spravochnik
serskokhozyaystvennogo proizvodstva, Moscow,
1967, p. 17.
B. Agricultural Commodities Used for Feed
Grain. The basic data for grain fed in 1960-79 are
derived from official Soviet statistics on quantities of
concentrates fed. The methodology is explained in A
(ER) 75-68, p. 33-34, which sets out the calculations
for 1960-73. The data since 1970 have been revised
slightly' because data on extraction rates for flour�
which changed the estimate of millfeed concentrates
307
available�have been updated. The data for 1973-79
are presented in table C-4. To estimate grain fed
during 1950-59, an index based on quantities of
concentrates required annually to produce livestock
products, to increase herd inventories, and to maintain
horses was used. This synthetic index agrees generally
with an index based on the official series of concen-
trates fed in later years. (See ER 79-10057, USSR:
Long-Term Outlook for Grain Imports, January 1979,
p. 13.) Because the requirements-based index is more
consistent with what we believe occurred during the
1950s, we have chosen to use the requirements-based
index to estimate quantities of grain fed during 1950-
59, that is, the index was used to move the 1960
estimated quantity of grain fed (the base weight) back
to 1950. Estimated quantities of grain fed are reduced
by the same type of discount�based on weather
conditions and crop size�used to discount grain
production (see discussion on pp. 18-19, above.)
Potatoes. Data for potatoes fed are taken from official
Soviet statistics for 1961-70, published in United
States Department of Agriculture, Economic Re-
search Service, Foreign 355, (undated), Livestock
Feed Balances for the USSR, p. 20. For 1950-60 and
1971-79, quantities of potatoes fed are estimated from
an independently constructed balance. We assume,
potatoes not used for seed, human consumption, and
industrial uses are fed to livestock. Table C-6 presents
the basic data from which the balance is derived.
Table C-7 shows the estimated quantities of potatoes
available for feed. The calculation is as follows:
Q = Po - S(I) -
where
C(o) + l(0) + Co ) 1(1)
2
= residual quantity available for
feed
= production of current year
= seed required for crop of next
year
human consumption of current
year
= industrial use of current year
human consumption of next
year
= industrial use of next year,
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Table C-3
USSR: Seeding Rates for Grain, 1970
Centners of first class seed per hectare
Corn for
grain
Pulses
Rice
Oats
Barley
Winter
Wheat
Spring
Wheat
Rye
Millet
Buckwheat
Other
Corn for silage
and green fodder
USSR
2.2
2.0
2.0
0.3
1.0
0.23
2.3
2.4
2.0
2.0
1.4
0.35
RSFSR
2.4
2.1
2.0
0.3
1.1
0.26
� 2.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
1.1 a
0.35
Ukraine
2.2
1.9
1.8
0.3
0.9
0.22
2.4
2.8
1.5
2.0
0.1 b
0.35
Kazakhstan
1.6
1.9
1.5
0.3
0.9
0.27
2.1
2.4
1.5
1.8
1.0c
0.35
Belorussia
2.3
2.5
2.0
0.3
1.0
0
2.0
0
2.2
2.1
2.1 d
0.35
Estonia
2.3
2.5
2.0
0.3
1.0
0
2.5
0
2.2
2.1
2.1 d
0.35
Latvia
2.3
2.5
2.0
0.3
1.0
0
2.5
0
2.2
2.1
2.1 d
0.35
Lithuania
2.3
2.5
2.0
0.3
1.0
0
2.0
0
2.2
2.1
2.1 d
0.35
Moldavia
1.8
1.9
1.5
0.3
0.9
0.23
2.4
0
1.6
1.4
0.1 b
0.35
Azerbaydzhan
2.3
2.1
1.8
0.3
0
0.25
1.0
2.4
1.7
2.0
1.0c
0.35
Armenia
2.3
2.1
1.8
0.3
0
0.25
1.0
2.4
1.7
2.0
1.0 c
0.35
Georgia
2.3
2.1
1.8
0.3
0
0.25
1.6
2.4
1.7
2.0
1.0c
0.35
Kirgiz
1.7
1.2
1.1
0.3
0
0.25
2.8
2.4
1.7
1.3
1.0 c
0.35
Tadzhikistan
1.7
1.2
1.1
0.3
0
0.25
1.7
2.4
1.7
1.3
0.1 b
0.35
Turkmenistan
1.7
1.2
1.1
0.3
0
0.25
0
2.4
1.7
1.3
0.1 b
0.35
Uzbekistan
1.7
1.2
1.1
0.3
0
0.25
1.9
2.4
1.7
1.3
0.1 b
0.35
a Assumed to be half sorghum for grain sown at the Moldavian rate
and half a mixture of oats and barley sown at the rate of 2.1 centners
per hectare.
b Assumed to be sorghum sown at the Moldavian rate.
c Arbitrary estimate.
d Assumed to be a mix of oats and barley. The weighted average
seeding rate of Belorussia is used.
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Table C-4
Million tons
USSR: Derivation of Grain Fed to Livestock
1973
Total concentrates a
Grain b
117.0
99.10
Milling byproducts
12.10
Oilseed meal
Official d
NA
Calculated
3.73
Alfalfa meal f
2.07
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
127.9
118.9
117.4
143.0
145.9
146.6
109.62
101.23
99.44
121.91
124.70
125.07
12.07
10.93
9.80
12.51
12.31
12.94
3.31
3.19
NA
3.14
3.48
3.63
3.42
3.55
3.58
2.79
3.60
4.68
4.95
5.58
5.40
a 1979: Narkhoz 1979, p. 284,
1975-78: NarkhozJ978, p. 258,
1973-14: Narkhoz 1975, p. 412.
b Total concentrates less milling byproducts, oilseed meal, and
alfalfa meal.
Table C-5. According to Ek selkhoz, no. 4, 1971, p. 28, 92 percent
of milling byproducts are used as feed.
d USDA, data supplied under the US-USSR Agriculture Agree-
ment. Maslo-zhiroyava promyshlennost', no. 2, 1980. Vest stat, no.
10, 1980, p. 79. According to ibid., 75 percent of total output of
oilseed meal is used as feed.
c A (ER) 75-68, p. 33-34. The Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations, in a massive study, has also calculated the
USSR's production of oilseed meals from 1965-75. See A Survey of
A comparison of the derived series with the official
shows that it understates actual feed use in about half
of the years for which the official data are available
and overstates by roughly similar quantities in the
other half. Thus, error in the series should be offset-
ting over time. No serious bias is introduced by the
assumption that residual potatoes are fed. Neverthe-
less, data for years with drastic inconsistencies, such
as 1950 and 1951 have been arbitrarily smoothed.
Similarly, for those years when the residual is sub-
stantially larger than the usual quantity fed, such as
1973, the statistic has been arbitrarily reduced. Given
the possible margin of error already present in the
basic data from which the balance is derived , such
adjustments do not seem, unreasonable. Data for 1971
forward are rounded to millions because the underly-
ing data for the balance, particularly for industrial
use, are less certain than those for earlier years.
Vegetables. We assume that all vegetables not con-
sumed by humans are fed to animals, that-is, produc-
tion plus imports less human consumption equals feed.
Lack of data precludes adjustments for exports or
309
the Oilseeds, Oils, Fats, and Protein Meal Sector in the Union of
Soviet Socialist Republic, CCP:OF 7/C.R.S.1, March. 1977, p. 41.
The FAO quantities of oilseed meal produced are higher than our
calculations and also higher than the official statistics for the years
in which both are available.
Estimated at 90 percent of procurements as reported in the central
press.
g Because the official data have again been made available to the
United States through the US-USSR Agriculturat Agreement, or
have been published, calculating the quantities of oilseed meal
available for feed use is no longer necessary.
NOTE: Components may not add to total because of rounding.
inventory change. No vegetables are reported to have
been exported. Inventory change data-available only
in value terms for the retail trade system--groups
vegetables with fruits and berries. Because the value
of inventories has been fairly constant at 10 percent of
retail sales of the same products it seems unlikely that
lack of an inventory adjustment seriously biases the
vegetables fed series over time. The series for vegeta-
bles fed is derived in table C-8.
In contrast to feeding of potatoes where some data are
available, no data on total vegetables fed could be
found. A few, statements on quantities fed on state
and collective farms or on collective farms alone were
found. These quantities, ranging from 600 thousand
tons in 1966 (Plan khoz, no. I, 1967, p. 25) to 3.1
million tons in 1973 (L.T. Dageev, Podsobnyye pro-
myshlenniye predpriyatiya v serskorn khozya_vstve,
Moscow, 1976, p. 14) were from half to two-thirds of
the derived quantity assumed fed. Because the private
sector produces nearly a third of total vegetables, it
93-892 0 - 82 - 21
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C. Eggs for Hatching
For the years 1953, 1957-60, and 1965-70, Soviet
sources provide data on numbers of young poultry
hatched in incubators. These data are used to calcu-
late a poultry balance to estimate the number of birds
expended per unit of poultry meat. These data, how-
ever, probably exclude eggs hatched in the private
sector.
Table C-5 Million tons
USSR: Derivation of Milling Byproducts
Available for Livestock Feeding
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
(est.)
Total
13.15
13.12
11.88
10.65
13.60
13.38
14.06
Wheat flour a
9.89
9.78
8.82
7.74
10.31
10.07
10.66
Rye flour a
1.14
1.13
.85
.66
1.00
.98
1.03
Groats b
2.12
2.21
2.21
2.25
2.29
2.33
2.37
a The difference between quantity of flour produced and the quantity
of grain required to produce the flour. Data for flour production for
1973-74 are from Narkhoz 1975, p. 297, for 1975-78 are from
Narkhoz 1978, p. 184. The share of wheat flour was 83 percent of to-
tal flour in 1973-74, 84 percent in 1975-76, and 85 percent in 1977-
78; the remainder is assumed rye flour. The amount of byproducts
from production of flour other than wheat and rye is negligible.
Extraction rates for wheat flour, for 1973-78 are assumed to be 78.3,
78.1, 80.0, 78.0, 78.0; for rye flour, 86.5, 86.3, 88.8, 91.0, 86.5. The
assumptions are guided by official statements concerning changes in
shares of sortovaya (graded) flours produced.
b The difference between the quantity of groats produced and the
quantity of grain required. Data on production of groats are found in
the following sources: 1973: Mukomorno-elevatornaya i kombikor-
movaya promyshlennost', no. 3, 1974, p.2; 1974: P.A. Lolcshin,
Spros proizvodstvo torgovlya, Moscow, 1975, p. 74. 1975, 1979:
Vest stat, no 10, 1980, p. 79. 1976-78 are interpolated. The
extraction rate for groats is 62.5 percent, the same as rice. The above
sources do not always give total groats production; in those cases
where the quantity produced above plan is the only indication of
production, production for the current year is assumed to be
production of the previous year plus the quantity produced above
plan.
seems likely that private sector feeding of vegetables
would be substantial and could be equal to socialized
sector feeding in some years.
Whole milk. Quantities of whole milk fed to livestock
are estimates based on incomplete data for most
years. Official statistics for the total quantity of whole
milk fed could be found for only one year, 1970. The
series is derived in table C-10.
The ratios in table C-11 are arbitrarily interpolated
and extrapolated to derive estimates of the number of
birds expended and lost in other years. The ratios
indicate that the average weight of poultry slaugh-
tered for meat is dropping which is consistent with
increasing emphasis on production of broiler meat.
Previously, almost all poultry meat came from culled
laying hens, which tend to be heavier than broilers.
We use an estimated hatching rate of 65 percent,
which compares with 77 percent in the US in recent
years."' No allowance has been made for changes in
the hatching rate over time. The mortality rate for
poultry used to increase flocks is estimated at 20 '
percent.'" Table C12 shows estimates of hatching
eggs for all years.
19 Calculations of hatching rates for the US rely on data from
USDA, Agricultural Statistics 1978, pp. 403 and 414. Chicks
hatched by commercial hatcheries can be compared with statistics
on eggs used for hatching. The implied hatching rate is 70-80
percent for 1975-77. The actual hatching rate may be higher since
eggs used for hatching include eggs hatched on farms while the
figures on chicks hatched are only for commercial hatcheries.
20 Mortality rates for the US can be calculated from ibid., p. 400.
The number of chickens produced in the US is shown as the sum of
the number raised minus the number lost. The mortality rate is
about 15 to 20 percent. We assume this rate is valid for all types of
poultry.
310
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Table C-6
USSR: Estimates of Elements of the Potato Balance
Million tons
Year
Production a
Seed Use b
Industrial Use
Food
Alcohol e
Starch and
Syrup d
Total e
1950
88.612
16.214
2.240
(.400)
(2.640)
43.404
1951
58.754
16.000
1.690
(.400)
(2.090)
31.000
1952
69.189
15.601
1.329
(.400)
(1.729)
31.000
1953
72.572
15.783
1.453
(.500)
(1.953)
30.000
1954
75.021
16.547
1.360
(.500)
(1.860) �
30.000
1955
71.751
17.273
1.232
(.600)
(1.832)
29.038
1956
96.015
17.474
1.561
(.600)
(2.161)
(29.556)
1957
87.813
18.578
2.277
(.700)
(2.977)
30.277
1958
86.527
18.098
NA
(.800)
(3.000)
31.020
1959
86.561
18.126
NA
NA
(3.000)
31.575
1960
84.374
17.374
.696
NA
(2.000)
30.645
1961
84.310
16.868
NA
NA
(2.000)
31.188
1962
69.677
16.503
NA
NA
(2.000)
31.481
1963
71.834
16.150
.690
NA
(2.000)
31.739
1964
93.642
16.184
1.634
NA
(3.000)
31.934
1965
88.676
16.362
2.599
1.560
4.159
32.788
1966
87.853
15.945
NA
(3.300)
3.300
31.522
1967
95.464
15.829
1.350
1.200
2.550
30.916
1968
102.184
15.772
2.688
- (1.200)
3.888
31.217
1969
91.779
15.390
NA
NA
(3.600)
31.519
1970
96.783
15.322
2.072
(1.200)
(3.272)
31.564
1971
92.655
14.999
NA
NA
(3.200)
31.373
1972
78.329
15.124
NA
NA
(3.200)
29.948
1973
108.200
15.232
2.005
(1.300)
(3.305)
30.963
1974
81.022
15.168
NA
NA
(3.300)
30.504
1975
88.703
15.033
2.120
(1.300)
(3.420)
30.540
1976
85.102
13.465
NA
NA
(3.400)
30.559
1977
83.652
13.427
NA
NA
(3.500)
31.080
197'8
86.124
13.380
(2.000)
1.600
(3.600)
30.572
1979
90.956
13.235
NA
NA
(3.600)
31.345
a Appendix A.
b Sown area times average seeding rate from table C-1.
e 1950, 1955, 1960, 1963-64: V.G. Pykov, Ekonomika, organizat-
siya, i planirovaniye spirtovogo proizvodstva, Moscow, 1966, p. 26.
1951-54, 1956-57: V.P. Zotov, Pishchevaya promyshalennost'
sovetskogo soyuza, Moscow, 1958, p. 111.
1965, 1968, 1970, 1973, 1975: M.T. Kochubeyeva, Ekonomika
organizatsiya, i planirovaniye spirtovogo i likerno-vodochnogo
proizvodstva, Moscow, 1977, p. 62.
1967: midpoint of range given in N.V. Vinogradov, (ed.), Ekonomika
pishchevoy promyshlennosti SSSR, Moscow, 1968, p. 208.
311
d 1950-57: estimated.
1958, 1965: V.P. Zotov, (ed.), Pishchevaya promyshlennost SSSR.
Moscow, 1967, p. 360.
1967: N.V. Vinogradov, (ed.), ibid. Moscow, 1968, p. 208.
1978: Sakharnaya promyshlennost', no. 10, 1978, p. 14.
e Sum of quantities of potatoes used for alcohol and starch and syrup.
Missing years interpolated and indicated by parentheses.
f Mid-year population times officially reported per capita consump-
tion from Narkhoz 1979, p. 432, and earlier editions.
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Table C-7
USSR: Potatoes Used for Feed (Crop Year)
Million tons Table C-8
Thousand tons
USSR: Derivation of Quantities of Vegetables
Available for Feed
Production a
Imports b
Consumption c Available
for Feed d
Year
Available by
Calculation a
Officially
Reported b
Series in
the Index c
Year
1950
33.0
23.0
1950
9,344
47.9
9,185.1
206.8
1951
10.2
20.2
1951
8,836
NA
NA
NA
1952
21.1
21.1
1952
9,774
NA
NA
NA
1953
24.1
24.1
1953
11,389
NA
NA
NA
1954
26.4
26.4
1954
11,918
NA
NA
NA
1955
23.0
23.0
1955
14,100
74.2
13,537.8
636.4
1956
45.0
30.0
1956
14,298
56.4
12,980.5
1,373.9
1957
36.1
36.1
1957
14,766
125.2
13,411.2
1,480.0
1958
34.1
34.1
1958
14,865
151.1
14,682.8
333.3
1959
35.6
35.6
1959
14,774
225.9
14,103.5
896.4
1960
34.6
38.0
38.0
1960
16,574
240.9
15,001.0
1,813.9
1961
34.5
39.3
39.3
1961
16,151
340.2
14,618.5
1,872.7
1962
19.9
36.9
36.9
1962
15,989
350.1
14,851.0
1,488.1
1963
21.3
32.6
32.6
1963
15,051
418.3
14,214.9
1,254.4
1964
41.3
29.6
29.6
1964
19,467
565.1
16,879.4
3;152.7
1965
36.8
36.1
36.1
1965
17,627
432.5
16,624.8
1,434.7
1966
37.9
41.5
41.5
1966
17,857
521.2
17,045.5
1,332.7
1967
45.4
38.8
38.8
1967
20,534
584.5
18,880.0
2,238.5
1968
51.7
39.4
39.4
1968
19,011
551.9
18,825.7
737.2
1969
41.5
37.6
37.6
1969
18,745
564.1
18,285.6
1,023.5
1970
47.1
36.9
36.9
1970
21,212
612.0
19,909.6
1,914.4
1971
43.7
43
1971
20,840
850.4
20,833.5
856.9
1972
29.4
30
1972
19,941
965.8
19,800.0
1,106.8
1973
59.0
45
1973
25,927
840.8
21,224.5
5,543.3
1974
26.1
26
1974
24,811
865.8
21,932.7
3,744.1
1975
35.3
35
1975
23,351
708.8
22,650.5
1,409.3
1976
37.4
37
1976
24,991
816.3
22,084.8
3,722.5
1977
35.9
36
1977
24,149
888.4
22,792.0
2,245.4
1978
38.3
38
1978
23,902
889.9
24,039.6
752.3
1979
42.8
42
1979
27,215
891.3
25,023.0
3,083.3
a Based on data in table C-6, calculated as explained in text above.
b USDA, ERS Foreign 355, Livestock Feed Balances for the USSR,
(undated), p. 20, converted to crop year use assuming 2/3 of quantity
fed this year is from last year's crop and 1/3 is from this year's. The
data are not available for 1950-59 or for 1971-79.
c With the exception of 1950-51, which are arbitrarily smoothed, and
1956, which is arbitrarily reduced in order to be more consistent with
the given data, the residually-derived data for 1950-59 are accepted.
Similarly, with the exception of 1973, which is reduced, the
residually-derived data for 1971-79 are accepted.
a Appendix table A-2.
b Appendix table C-9.
c Midyear population times officially reported per capita consump-
tion from Narkhoz 1979, p. 432, and earlier editions.
d Production plus imports less human consumption. Theoretically,
imports and consumption of vegetables should be lagged to balance
with crop year production in order to derive a quantity of vegetables
available for feed. To lag imports and consumption, we arbitrarily
assumed each occurs evenly throughout the year. Quantities
imported and quantities consumed in year t and year t+ were
averaged. Although the resulting quantities available for feed were
somewhat different from those shown above, the difference is so
small in value terms that growth in the index of net value of output
was changed by less than 0.1 percent in any year. Because the effect
is so small, we did not lag imports and consumption.
312
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Table C-9 Thousand tons
USSR: Imports of Vegetables
Year
Fresh
Vegetables a
Canned Vegetables
Total d
Pastes and
Purees b
Converted
to Fresh c
1950
47.4
0.3
0.5
47.9
1955
64.3
6.0
9.9
74.2
1956
42.7
8.3 �
13.7
56.4
1957
95.8
17.8
29.4
125.2
1958
116.3
21.1
34.8
151.1
1959
168.0
35.1
57.9
225.9
1960
174.9
40.0
66.0
240.9
1961
189.9
91.1
150.3
340.2
1962
201.8
89.9
148.3
350.1
1963
239.6
108.3
178.7
418.3
1964
303.4
158.6
261.7
565.1
1965
222.0
127.6
210.5
432.5
1966
185.6
203.4
335.6
521.2
1967
151.0
262.7
433.5
584.5
1968
169.4
231.8
382.5
551.9
1969
182.0
231.6
382.1
564.1
1970
163.4
271.9
448.6
612.0
1971
310.0
327.5
540.4
850.4
1972
358.8
367.9
607.0
965.8
1973
235.6
366.8
605.2
840.8
1974
281.5
354.1
584.3
865.8
1975
144.0
342.3
564.8
708.8
1976
185.7
382.2
630.6
816.3
1977
190.5
423.0
697.9
888.4
1978
182.4
428.7
707.4
889.9
1979
147.1
451.0
744.2
891.3
a 1979: Vneshnyaya torgovlya SSSR v /979g., (hereafter Vnesh (org
and the year), p. 42.
1977-78: Vnesh torg 1978, pp. 41-42
1975-76: Vnesh torg 1976, P. 43.
1973-74: Vnesh torg 1974, p. 50.
1971-72: Vnesh torg 1972, p. 47.
1969-70: Vnesh torg 1970, p. 45.
1967-68: Vnesh torg 1968, pp. 45-56.
1950, 1955-66: Vnesh torg 1918-1966, pp. 111-113. ,
b Sum of number of cans of vegetables converted to tons and the
quantity of pastes and purees, given in tons, from sources in (a)
above. The number of cans of vegetables is converted to tons using
the standard Soviet size, 400 grams per can. See, for example, Vnesh
torg 1972, p. 47, which presents the data in both number of cans and
thousand tons.
a Converted to quantities of vegetables required to produce the
canned vegetables and pastes and purees using the coefficient, 1.65
tons of vegetables required to produce 1.00 tons of canned
vegetables. See L.V. Opatskiy, Razmeshcheniye pishchevoy pro-
myshlennosti SSSR, Moscow, 1958, p. 98.
d Sum of fresh vegetables and converted vegetables.
313
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Table C-10
Million tons
USSR: Derivation of Whole Milk Fed
to Livestock
Year
Total a
Total a
On Collective and
State Farms b
Private
On Collective and
State Farms b
Private
Year
1950
4.6
1966
9.5
5.5
4.0 d
1951
4.7
1967
10.2
5.9
4.3 d
1952
4.6
1968
10.8
6.3
4.5 d
1953
4.7
1969
11.1
6.6
45d
1954
5.0
1970
11.5 a
6.9
4.6 d
1955
5.6
1971
11.4g
6.7
4�7d
1956
6.4
1972
11.48
6.4
4.9
1957
7.1
1973
11.48
6.5
4.71
1958
7.6
1974
11.4
6.8
4.31
1959
8.0
1975 Plan
10.9
7.0
1960
8.0
1975 Est.
11.4g
1961
8.1
5.2
2.9 c
1976
11.4g
1962
8.4
5.2
3.2 d
1977
11.4
1963
8.0
4.8
3.2d
1978
11.4g
1964
7.5
4.2
33d
1979
11.4
1965
8.7
5.1
3.6 d
a 1950-60: assumed 13 percent of total milk production, the average
share during 1961-70.
1961-1979: sum of milk fed on collective and state farms and milk
fed to private livestock holdings unless otherwise noted.
b 1961-70: Selkhoz 1971, p. 332. 1971-73: Nalichiye iraskhodv
kolkhozakh i sovkhozakh v 1973 godu, Moscow, 1974, p.6.
1974-1975: Sel'skaya zhizn', 14 September 1975, p. 2.
a P.A. Ignatovskiy, Sotsialno-ekonomicheskiye izmeneniya v
sovetskoy derevne, Moscow, 1966, p. 383, notes that the titivate
sector fed about 10 percent of its production at the beginning of the
1960s. Private sector production of milk in 1960 was 29.1 million
tons and in 1961 was 28.5 million tons. (Narkhoz 1978, p. 249 and
Narkhoz 1922-72, p. 258.)
d According to Molochnaya promyshlennost', no. 1, 1972, p. 6, the
private sector fed 15.9 percent of its production in 1971. The share of
milk from private sector production being fed to livestock is assumed
to increase by 0.54 percent per year during 1960-70 and by 0.5
percent in 1971 for a total increase of 5.9 percent (15.9 percent in
1971 less 10 percent in 1960). Private sector milk production for
1960-64 is from Narkhoz 1965, p. 376; for 1965-71 is from Narkhoz
1975, p. 396.
Gosudarstvennyy pyatiletniy plan razvitiya narodnogo khozyayst-
va SSSR na 1971-75 gody, Moscow, 1972, p. 175.
1 Total whole milk fed less whole milk fed on collective and state
farms.
g Plan khoz, no. 11, 1979, p.91, states that "In 1978 more than 12
percent of milk produced was used for (feed)." Because 12 percent of
milk produced in 1978 (94.7 million tons) is 11.4 million tons, we
assume the planned downturn in feeding of whole milk did not
materialize, and hold the quxitity fed constant from 1971 to 1979.
(A small downturn probably occurred in the first year of a new five-
year plan.)
314
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Table C-11
USSR: Poultry Balance, Selected Years
Poultry
Flocks on
1 January
(million) a
Young
Poultry From
Incubators
(million) b
Birds
Available
(million) e
Poultry
Flocks on
31 December
(million) a
Birds
Expended
and Lost
(million) d
Production
of Poultry
Meat
(thousand tons) e
513
Ratio
of Meat
to Birds!
1.925
1.634
1.497
1.241
1.097
1.157
1.159
1.086
1.058
1.019
0.954
1953
(360.7)
306.2
666.9
400.4
266.5
1957
432.1
375.0
807.1
449.7
357.4
584
1958
449.7
433.9
883.6
482.8
400.8
600
731
766
1959
482.8
620.7
1103.5
514.3
589.2
1960
514.3
699.4
1213.7
515.6
698.1
1965
456.2
636.3
1092.5
490.7
601.8
696
745
764
1966
490.7
668.3
1159.0
516.4
642.6
1967
516.4
715.4
1231.8
528.4
703.4
1968
528.4
790.6
1319.0
546.9
772.1
817
866
1969
546.9
893.3
1440.2
590.3
849.9
1970
590.3
1184.7
1775.0
652.7
1122.3
1071
a Official statistics on poultry flocks are from Narkhoz /960, p. 457;
Selkhoz 1960, p. 320; Selkhoz /970, p. 272.
b Selkhoz 1960, pp. 324-326; Selkhoz 1971, p. 275.
e Column 1 plus column 2.
d Column 3 less column 4.
e Table A-3.
f Column 6 divided by column 5.
315
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I�,
CN
Table C-12
USSR: Eggs Used for
Hatching.
1950 1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
(1.1)
1962
1963
1964
Ratio of meat to birds a
(1.9)
(1.9)
(1.9)
1.9
(1.8)
(1.8)
(1.7)
1.6
1.5
1.2
1.1
(1.1)
(1.1)
(1.1)
Production of poultry
meat (thousand tons) b
278
400
400
513
480
455
475
584
600
731
766
813
822
802
606
Birds expended and lost
(million) e
146
210
210
270
266
253
279
365
400
609
696
739
747
729
551
Hatching eggs for meat
birds (million) a
225
324
324
415
409
389
429
561
615
937
1071
1137
27
1149
8
1121
�101
848
7
Change in poultry flocks
(million) e
29
(32)
(36)
(40)
�10
20
22
12
33
32
1
Hatching eggs for
increase in poultry
flocks (millions) f
56
(62)
(69)
(77)
�19
38
42
35
63
62
52
15
�194
13
Total hatching eggs
(million) g
281
386
393
492
390
427
471
596
678
999
1073
1189
1164
927
861
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Ratio of meat to birds a
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
866
.95
(.95)
(.95)
(.95)
(.95)
(.95)
(.95)
(.95)
(.95)
(.95)
Production of poultry
pleat (thousand tons) b
696
745
764
817
1071
1183
1203
1295
1420
1500
1414
1691
1902
2017
Birds expended and lost
(million) e
580
621
694
743
866
1127
1245
1266
1363
1495
1579
1488
2289
1780
2002
2123
Hatching eggs for meat
birds (million) a
892
955
1068
1143
1332
1734
1915
1948
2097
2300
2429
2738
3080
3266
Change in poultry flocks
(million) e
35
26
12
18
43
62
34
14
48
45
�58
62
86
71
34
Hatching eggs for
increase in poultry
flocks (million) f
67
50
23
35
83
119
65
27
92
86
�111
119
165
136
65
Total hatching eggs
(million) g
959
1005
1091
1178
1415
1853
1980
1975
2189
2386
2318
2408
2903
3216
3331
a Table C-11; figures in parentheses are arbitrary estimates based on
data in table C-11.
b Table A-3.
e Production of poultry meat divided by the ratio of meat to birds.
d Birds expended and lost divided by a hatching rate of 65 percent.
e Calculated from data in table A-3; additional data to complete the
series are from Narkhoz 1978, p. 247; Narkhoz 1975, p. 395;
Narkhoz 1960, p. 457.
f Changes in poultry flocks divided by the 65 percent hatching rate
and by an 80 percent survival rate for young birds.
g Hatching eggs for meat birds plus those for changes in poultry
flocks.
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Part IV. AN INDEX OF CONSUMPTION IN THE USSR
By Gertrude E. Schroeder and M. Elizabeth Denton
317
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Contents
Page
List of Standard Citations
Introduction
Consumption Trends and Patterns
Trends in Per Capita Consumption
Changes in the Structure of Consumption
Description and Evaluation of the Consumption Index
The Index in Established Prices
General
Category Weights
Goods
Household Services
Communal Services
Indexes
Indexes at Factor Cost and in Adjusted Market Prices
Factor Cost
Adjusted Market Prices
Comparison With Other Indexes
Official Soviet Measures
Other Western Measures
Description and Evaluation of Component Indexes
Goods
Food, Beverages, and Tobacco
Scope and Coverage
Weights
Indexes
Soft Goods
Scope and Coverage
Weights
Indexes
Durables and Miscellaneous Goods
Scope and Coverage
322
323
325
325
325
328
328
328
330
330
330
330
331
331
331
331
333
333
334
337
337
337
337
339
339
339
339
340
340
341
341
Weights 343
Index 343
319
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Services 343
Household Services 343
Housing 343
Utilities 344
Transportation 346
Communications 346
Repair and Personal Care 347
Recreation 348
Communal Services 349
Education 349
Health 351
Appendixes
A.
Indexes of Consumption and 1970 Weights 353
B.
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index of Food, Beverages, 369
and Tobacco
C.
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index of Soft Goods 377
D.
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index of Durables and 385
Miscellaneous Goods
E.
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index of Household Services 386
F.
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index of Communal Services 394
Tables
1. Average Annual Rates of Growth of Per Capita Consumption and 326
Major Components in Established Prices, 1950-80
2. Structure of Consumption in 326
Established Prices and at Factor Cost, 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980
3. Indexes of Total Consumption and Major Categories, Selected 329
Years, 1950-80
4. Growth Rates of Total Consumption and Major Categories,
Alternative Base Year Weights in Established Prices
329
5. Growth Rates of Total Consumption and Major Categories in 332
Established Prices and at Factor Cost, Selected Years, 1950-80
Comparison of Official and CIA Measures of Soviet Per Capita 335
Consumption
7. Comparisons of CIA Index of Total Consumption With Indexes 336
Constructed by Bergson, Chapman, and Becker
8. Derivation of 1970 Weights for Components of the Index of Food, 338
Beverages, and Tobacco
9. Derivations of 1970 Weights for Components of the Index of 341
Soft Goods
320
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Appendix Tables
A-1. Indexes of Total Consumption in Established Prices, by Category, 353
1950-80, and 1970 Category Weights
A-2. Per Capita Consumption in Established Prices, by
Category, 1950-80
321
365
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List of Standard Citations
Full Citation
Abbreviated Citation
USSR Central Statistical Administration, Statistical Handbooks
Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 19�godu (National Economy of the USSR in 19�)
Narkhoz 19�
Promyshlennost' SSSR, 1964 (Industry USSR)
Prom 1964
Sel'skoye khozyaystvo SSSR, 1960, (Agriculture USSR)
Selkhoz 1960
Sel'skoye khozyaystvo SSSR, 1971, (Agriculture USSR)
Selkhoz 1971
Sovetskaya torgovlya (Soviet Trade), Moscow, 1964
Soy torg 1964
Gosudarstvennyy byudzhet SSSR i byudzhety soyuznykh respublik (State Budget of the
USSR and Budgets of the Union Republics)
1961-1965
1966-1970
1971-1975
Gosbyudzhet, 1966
Gosbyudzhet, 1972
Gosbyudzhet, 1976
Soviet Periodicals
Voprosy ekonomiki (Problems of Economics)
Vop ek
Vestnik statisiki (Herald of Statistics)
Vest stat
Ekonomika i organizatsiya promyshlennogo proizvodstva (Economics and Organization of
Industrial Production)
EKO
Ekonomicheskaya gazeta (Economic Gazette)
Ekon gaz
US Government Publications
CIA, USSR: Gross National Product Accounts, 1970 A (ER) 75-76, November 1975
CIA, The Soviet Grain Balance, 1960-73, A (ER) 75-68, September 1975
CIA, A Comparison of Consumption in the USSR and the US. January 1964
Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States,
Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80, 1982
An Index of Industrial Production in the USSR, 1982
An Index of Agricultural Production in the USSR, 1982
An Index of Consumption in the USSR, 1982
Consumption in the USSR: An International Comparison, 1981
Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982
Soviet Economic Prospects for the Seventies, June 1973
Soviet Economy in a New Perspective, October 1976
Soviet Economy in a Time of Change, October 1979
CIA, GNP 1970
A (ER) 75-68
CIA, A Comparison�, 1964
JEC, GNP, 1950-80
JEC, Industry
JEC, Agriculture
JEC, Consumption
JEC, Consumption Comparison
JEC, GNP Comparison
JEC, 1973
JEC, 1976
JEC, 1979
Other Publications
Irving B. Kravis, Zoltan Kenessey, Alan Heston, and Robert Summers, A System of
International Comparisons of Gross Product and Purchasing Power, United Nations
International Comparisons Project, Phase I (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press,
1975)
ICP, Phase I
Irving B. Kravis, Alan Heston, and Robert Summers, International Comparisons of Real
Product and Purchasing Power, United Nations International Comparison Project, Phase II
(Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978)
ICP, Phase II
Abraham S. Becker, Soviet National Income, 1958-1964, (Berkeley, University of California
Press, 1969)
Becker, 1969
Abram Bergson, The Real National Income of Soviet Russia Since 1928, (Cambridge, Mass.,
Harvard University Press, 1961)
Bergson, 1961
Abram Bergson, Productivity and the Social System: The USSR and the West, (Cambridge,
Mass., Harvard University Press, 1978)
Vladimir G. Treml and John P. Hardt, eds., Soviet Economic Statistics,
(Durham, N.C., Duke University Press, 1972)
Bergson, 1978
Treml and Hardt
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An Index of Consumption
in the USSR
Introduction
The index of consumption described in this paper was
developed to provide a measure of real consumption in
the Soviet Union in the post-war period that is
comparable in concept and methodology to measures
available for Western countries. The index defines
consumption to include all household expenditures on
goods and services for consumption plus government
current expenditures on health and education services.
In Western national accounts�those of the OECD,
for example�this definition is equivalent to "private
final consumption expenditures" plus the health and
education components of "government final consump-
tion expenditures". Although treated separately here,
the index is designed as a major component of an
index of gross national product (GNP).' Like most of
the other components of CIA's reconstruction of
Soviet GNP over time, the consumption index is an
aggregate of time series, most of them in physical
units, weighted by expenditures in rubles in the base
year (1970). This approach contrasts with that in
Western countries, where the GNP index and its
components are usually deflated value measures. In
the Soviet case, the resort to physical measures was
both necessary and desirable, because of the lack of
trustworthy price indexes as well as current expendi-
ture data in most cases.
A Western-type measure of progress in raising living
standards in the USSR is required for two important
reasons. First, the measures published by the Soviet
government are conceptually unsuitable for compari-
sons with those published by Western countries and
also are widely believed to have a large upward bias.
The official Soviet measures�"real per capita in-
comes" and "personal consumption" plus "material
expenditures of institutions serving the population"�
are couched in the Marxian conceptual framework of
net material product; thus, they exclude the labor
inputs into personal and oommunal services, and they
include depreciation and some other elements not
considered to be final consumption expenditures in the
West.' The Soviet government publishes neither a cost
' See JEC, GNP, 1950-80.
For details, see United Nations, Comparisons of the System of
National Accounts and the System of Balances of the National
Economy, Part I, Series F, No. 20, New York (1977).
323
of living index, nor a suitable deflator for net material
product by end use The official index of retail prices
has serious methodblogical and conceptual faults.'
Second, progress in raising living standards is a major
facet of the challenge that Soviet-style socialism has
long posed to Western market-oriented systems. The
goal to "overtake and surpass" capitalist rivals was
laid down by Stalin in the early 1930s and reiterated
with great fanfare by Khrushchev in the early 1960s.
Indeed, the Program of the 22nd Party Congress was
designed to bring Soviet society to communism "in
the main" by 1980, when the Soviet people would
have a "standard of living higher than that of any
capitalist country." ' Thus, provision of a reliable
measure of real gains in living standards is key to an
evaluation of the Soviet Union's progress toward its
goal.' The CIA index is the only Western-type mea-
sure of consumption that has been constructed and
kept up to date for the entire period since 1950. The
results of its several recent versions have been pub-
lished periodically in JEC compendia on the Soviet
economy.' The index described i,n this paper is a
somewhat revised version of that published in JEC.
1979. Two other Western-type indexes are available
for a part of the period�indexes for 1950-58 by
Bergson and Chapman ' and an index for 1958-64 by
Becker.' These indexes have not been revised to take
account of more recent information or extended to
later years. The CIA index thus fills a large gap in
Western research on trends in levels of living in the
Soviet Union in the post-war years. The index is kept
continuously under review, with a view to increasing
its reliability as new information permits.
'Gertrude E. Schroeder, "An Appraisal of Soviet Wage and
Income Statistics" and Morris Bornstein, "Soviet Price Statistics"
in Treml and Hardt, pp. 307-312, 370-378.
'Pravda, October 19, 1961.
The Soviet achievement is evaluated in a comparative framework
in Gertrude E. Schroeder and Imogene Edwards, Consumption in
the USSR: An International Comparison, US Congress, Joint
Economic Committee, 1981.
JEC, 1966, Part II-B, pp. 499-529; JEC, 1973, pp. 376-403; JEC.
1976, pp. 620-660; JEC, 1979, Vol. I, pp. 759-789.
' Janet G. Chapman, "Consumption," in Abram Bergson and
Simon Kuznets, eds., Economic Trends in the Soviet Union,
Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1963, pp. 235-282.
'Abraham S. Becker, Soviet National Income, 1958-1964, RAND
Berkeley, University of California Press, 1969, pp. 119, 222-227.
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The following section provides a brief discussion of
post-war trends in per capita consumption and
changes in its structure. Then follows a general
description and evaluation of the overall index of
Soviet consumption and a comparison with official
Soviet measures as well as the two measures devel-
oped by Western scholars for part of the period. A
final section presents, describes and evaluates the
component indexes for major categories of goods and
services. Descriptions of indexes and weights and the
documentation for their derivation are intentionally
quite complete.
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Consumption Trends and Patterns
Trends in Per Capita Consumption
The level of living of the Soviet people has improved
rapidly during the past 30 years. During 1950-80, real
consumption per capita nearly tripled, rising at an
average annual rate of 3.5 percent (Table 1). Gains
were much smaller in the 1970s than in the 1960s and
1950s, reflecting a slowdown in overall economic
growth. While substantial, the growth rates for per
capita consumption are well within the bounds of
those found in Western countries in the postwar
period, and Soviet living standards remain well below
those in the United States, Japan, and most of
Europe, both East and West.'
Over the pe)-iod as a whole, per capita consumption of
goods has risen faster than consumption of services,
although this relationship was reversed in the 1970s.
Among the three major goods categories, by far the
fastest growth took place in consumption of durables,
as the Soviet government sought to develop productive
capabilities for consumer durables from very low
levels. Soft goods, too, have been made available in
rapidly growing quantities and improved quality and
variety. Although quantitative gains in food supplies
have been the slowest of the three goods categories,
the quality of the diet has nonetheless improved
greatly, shifting toward a pattern of less reliance on
bread and potatoes and more reliance on meat and
dairy products�a shift typical of other countries as
per capita income levels rise. This shift toward a more
modern dietary pattern slowed in the 1970s as a result
of faltering agricultural progress.
Among the services, household services as a group
grew considerably faster than communal services.
Particularly rapid expansion occurred in the provision
of transportation, communications, and utilities. In
contrast, per capita availability of housing increased
very slowly, with per capita living space in urban
areas in 1980 still remaining below the minimum
norm for health and decency set by the government in
1928. Repair and personal care services increased
even more slowly than did housing until the latter half
of the 1960s, when the government began a belated
push to expand facilities for providing such services.
Recreation services, measured mainly by movie and
9 For a detailed international comparison of relative levels and rates
of growth of consumption see Gertrude E. Schroeder and Imogene
Edwards, op. cit.
325
theater attendance, expanded rapidly during the
1950s but slowed sharply thereafter, reflecting the
rapidly growing use of television and less organized
forms of recreation.
In contrast to the pre-war period, provision of commu-
nal services per capita has increased much less rapidly
than provision of goods and personal services. Health
services have grown somewhat faster than education
services over the period as a whole. Growth rates for
both services have been quite uneven among 5-year
periods, and there has been a pronounced slowdown in
the expansion of both in the 1970s. Nonetheless,
educational attainment of the population has risen
substantially�from almost 5 years in 1950 to a little
over 9 years in 1980.'" Health. services measured by
the number of doctors and hospital beds per 10,000
population have more than doubled, although the
quality of public health services may be seriously
flawed, if one may judge from the significant in-
creases in infant mortality rates in the past 10-15
years."
The discussion thus far has referred to growth rates
given by indexes aggregated with weights in estab-
lished prices. As noted below, appreciably lower rates
result, when component indexes are aggregated with
factor cost weights. Differences occur in the growth
rates for total consumption, goods, food, household
services, and for services as a whole. When the
concern is to indicate the expansion of real resources
allocated to consumption, the indexes of consumption
at factor cost are preferable. A summary comparison
of growth rates for consumption and major categories
measured in both sets of prices is given in Table 5
below.
Changes in the Structure of Consumption
The structure of consumption in the Soviet Union has
been remarkably stable since 1950 (Table 2). Whether
measured in established prices or at factor cost, the
respective shares of goods and of services were about
'� CIA, USSR: Trends and Prospects in Educational Attainment,
ER 79-10344, June 1979, pp 1, 23.
Christopher Davis and Murray Feshbach, Rising Infant Mortal-
ity in the USSR in the 1970s, US Department of Commerce
Bureau of the Census, International Population Reports, Series P-
95, No. 74, June 1980.
93-892 0 - 82 - 22
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Table 1
Average Annual Rates of Growth of Per Capita Consumption
and Major Components in Established Prices, 1950-80
1976-80
1951-80
1951-55
1956-60
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
Total
3.5
4.5
4.0
2.4
5.1
2.9
2.2
Goods
3.6
4.9
4.2
2.0
5.4
2.8
2.1
Food
2.6
3.4
3.3
1.8
4.3
1.6
1.0
Soft goods
4.8
8.4
5.5
1.9
7.1
3.0
3.1
Durables
9.3
17.4
10.5
3.9
9.1
10.0
5.3
Services
3.3
2.9
3.0
4.2
4.3
3.0
2.5
Household services
4.2
3.5
3.8
4.4
5.8
4.6
3.4
Housing
2.0
1.1
3.1
2.5
2.0
1.7
1.4
Utilities
5.2
4.1
4.7
7.8
5.7
5.3
3.8
Transportation
7.3
10.1
8.9
8.4
8.0
6.1
2.6
Communications
6.0
6.2
5.2
5.N5
7.8
6.3
4.9
Repair and personal care
3.8
0.3
1.1
1.8
8.4
5.7
5.5
Recreation
2.4
7.1
3.0
2.2
1.6
0.6
0.3
Communal services
2.5
2.6
2.3
4.0
3.0
1.5
1.5
Education
2.4
1.5
1.5
5.2
2.9
1.5
1.7
Health
2.6
4.3
3.5
2.1
3.2
1.4
1.3
Table 2
Structure of Consumption in Established Prices and at Factor Cost, 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980 a
(Percent)
1980
1950
1960
1970
Established
Prices
Factor
Cost
_Established
Prices
Factor
Cost
Established
Prices
Factor
Cost
Established
Prices
Factor
Cost
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Goods
77.1
62.8
79.8
65.4
78.9
64.1
78.4
63.6
Food, beverages
and tobacco
59.8
53.6
54.9
51.0
51.1
' '47.1
45.3
42.4
Soft goods
15.2
7.9
19.6
11.0
21.0
12.5
2'2.1
13.6
Durables
2.2
1.3
5.2
3.3
6.8
4.5
11.0
7.6
Services
22.9
37.2
20.2 ,
34.6
21.1
35.9
21.6
36.4
Household
9.6
23.2
9.0
22.0
10.2
22.8
11.8
24.2
Housing
2.3
16.2
1.9
14.2
1.6
13.0
1.5
12.2
Utilities
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Transportation
1.0
1.1
1.7
2.0
2.6
3.2
3.1
4.0
Communications
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.8
1.3
Repair and
personal care
3.2
2.4
2.3
1.8
2.6
2.2
3.5
3.0
Recreation
1.4
1.7
1.5
2.0
1.2
1.8
1.0
1.5
Communal
13.3
14.0
11.2
12.6
10.9
13.1
9.8
12.2
Education
8.6
9.2
6.6
7.6
6.8
8.3
6.2
7.8
Health
4.7
4.8
4.6
5.0
4.1
4.8
3.6
4.4
Derived from ruble values in 1970 prices. Because of rounding,
components may not add to the totals shown.
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the same in 1980 as they were in 1950. Essentially the
same finding holds true when patterns are compared
in current prices. Within the goods category, however,
there has been a relatively slow decline (by interna-
tional standards) in the share of food, beverages, and
tobacco and a concomitant rise in the share of soft
goods and especially durables.I2 This direction of
change is to be expected from Engel's law concerning
the relationship of expenditures on food to total
consumption expenditures as incomes rise. Within the
services, there has been a small increase in the role of
personal services and a moderate drop in the role of
communal services. The shares of transportation and
communications have risen appreciably, while the
share of housing has declined.
'2 These matters are explored in more detail in a comparative
framework in Schroeder and Edwards, op. cit.
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Description and Evaluation
of the Consumption Index
The Index in Established Prices
General
The index of total consumption shown in summary
form in Table 3 and in detail in Appendix A is a
weighted aggregate of separately constructed indexes
for three broad categories of goods�food, soft goods,
and durables and miscellaneous goods�six categories
of personal services�housing, utilities, transporta-
tion, communications, repair and personal care, and
recreation�and two communal services�education
and health. The indexes for major categories, in turn,
are weighted aggregates of varying numbers of com-
ponent indexes.
The aggregate index is a sample index based to a
considerable extent on time series in physical units.
The sample is large and in one way or another
represents more than 90 percent of all consumption
expenditures. All important foods, soft goods, and
durables are included, as are most personal services
and all education and health services. Both the sample
categories and the time series selected to represent
them were severely constrained by the availability of
published Soviet data. Ideally, one would like to have
suitable and detailed expenditure time series and
corresponding reliable price deflators. In general, the
Soviet government publishes neither. Data on retail
sales, regularly published in current prices with a
disaggregation of several dozen groups, are flawed by
the presence of sizeable residual groups of obscure
content and by inclusion of sales to enterprises and
sale of intermediate and investment goods that do not
reflect household consumption. Retail sales data also
include sales of so-called "productive" services, such
as shoe repair. The data with which to remove or
reclassify these various items are not available over
time. Official retail price indexes are seriously defec-
tive, as already noted, since they reflect official price
changes only on a fixed sample of basic products; the
index is, in essence, an index of prices on an official
price list and not an index of prices paid by consumers
for goods actually available for purchase. The Soviet
government publishes neither quantities nor values for
consumption in kind, a major element in total food
consumption. Neither expenditures nor price indexes
are available for most personal services. Official data
on government outlays for education and health are in
current prices, and include transfer payments and
some expenditures that belong to investment rather
than to consumption.
In general, the Soviet Union publishes only a small
fraction of the data that are required, ideally, to
construct a reliable consumption index; moreover the
definitions and methodologies underlying the pub-
lished data are seldom available in more than cursory
detail. As a result of these problems with the data, the
quality of the components of the CIA indexes is
uneven. Most satisfactory, perhaps, are those for food,
soft goods, transportation, and communications: least
satisfactory are those for durables and miscellaneous
goods and for recreation. The indexes for housing and
for communal services suffer from an inability to
reflect improvements in quality; this shortcoming is
not unique to the indexes constructed here for the
USSR, however. Each of the major component index-
es is evaluated below with respect to coverage and
quality of the time series data and internal weights
within major components.
Several sources of possible bias exist. The choice of
1970 as the base year may impart some bias to the
index. In general, however, 1970 was a fairly
"normal" year for consumers, in the sense that no
major crop failure or other unusual event occurred.
The matter of the degree of overall equilibrium in
consumer goods markets is considered below. To test
the effect of the choice of base year, alternative
weights for major categories on a comparable basis
were constructed for 1960 and 1976. Rates of growth
shown by the three sets of weights do not differ much.
The use of 1960 weights speeds up the index some-
what, while the use of 1976 weights instead of 1970
weights has a negligible impact on the index. Table 4
summarizes the growth rates given by alternative sets
of weights for major categories.
The use of time series expressed in physical units may
bias the index downward because of the inability to
allow fully for improvements in quality. This source of
bias could be significant, probably, only for footwear,
hosiery, and knitwear and perhaps for education and
health services. On the other hand, those series that
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Table 3
Indexes of Total Consumption and Major Categories,
Selected Years, 1950-80
1970 Weights
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
(Percent)
Total Consumption
100.0
33.8
45.9
60.9
74.0
100.0
120.7
140.4
Goods
78.9
33.1
45.8
61.6
73.2
100.0
120.4
139.5
Food
51.1
39.5
50.9
65.5
77.2
100.i,
113.6
124.5
Soft goods
21.0
24.5
39.8
57.0
67.4
100.0
121.5
147.7
Durables
6.8
10.8
26.3
47.3
61.6
100.0
168.9
227.9
Services
21.1
36.6
46.1
58.3
77.0
100.0
121.7
143.7
Household services
10.2
31.6
40.8
53.7
71.8
100.0
131.2
161.6
Housing
1.6
48.1
55.4
70.6
86.0
100.0
114.1
127.4
Utilities
1.6
25.1
33.4
45.9
72.1
100.0
135.7
170.4
Transportation
2.6
13.6
24.0
40.1
64.8
100.0
141.2
167.6
Communications
0.6
22.4
33.1
46.5
65.4
100.0
142.0
187.9
Repair and personal care
2.6
42.1
46.6
53.8
63.5
100.0
138.1
188.0
Recreation
1.2
37.6
57.6
73.0
87.7
100.0
108.0
114.3
Goods and household services
89.1
32.9
45.3
60.7
73.1
100.0
121.6
142.1
Communal services
10.9
41.4
51.1
62.6
81.9
100.0
112.7
126.9
Education
6.8
42.8
50.3
59.3
82.3
100.0
112.7
127.8
Health
4.1
39.0
52.5
68.0
81.3
100.0
112.6
125.2
Table 4
Growth Rates of Total Consumption and Major Categories,
Alternative Base Year Weights in Established Prices
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1960
Weights
1970
Weights
1976
Weights
1960
Weights
1970
Weights
1976
Weights
1960
Weights
1970
Weights
1976
Weights
Total consumption
6.7
6.1
6.0
5.4
5.1
5.1
3.7
3.5
3.4
Goods
7.2
6.4
6.4
5.3
5.0
5.0
3.6
3.4
3.3
Food
6.1
5.2
5.2
5.0
4.3
4.5
2.4
2.2
2.2
Soft goods
8.8
8.8
8.7
5.3
5.8
5.3
4.3
4.0
3.9
Durables
15.9
15.9
15.9
7.8
7.8
7.8
8.6
8.6
8.8
Services
4.0
4.8
4.7
5.8
5.6
5.5
4.0
3.7
3.6
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,
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are based on deflated retail sales or value of produc-
tion in "constant" prices may impart an upward bias
to the index, because of the dubious reliability of the
official price indexes used as deflators. These two
sources of bias tend to offset each other. Judging from
a mass of anecdotal evidence from the Soviet press
concerning the poor quality of consumer goods and
hidden price inflation, however, one might conclude
that the upward biases are predominant. There is no
good way to assess the matter.
Category Weights
The expenditure weights used to aggregate the 11
major categories of goods and services are those for
1970 estimated in the calculations of GNP by end use
in established prices. A full description of the sources
and methods of their derivation is given in CIA, GNP
1970. The weights shown there have been revised
considerably to fake into account additional or more
recent information and an improved understanding of
Soviet data; the revisions are described in Appendix D
of JEC, GNP, 1950-80. The revisions reduced total
consumption by 4 percent and raised the share of
goods as opposed to services. A summary description
of the revised weights follows:
Goods. The weights for food and soft goods are the
sum of (1) retail sales reduced to reflect only house-
hold purchases for consumption, (2) consumption in
kind estimated in physical units valued at average
prices realized by producers ("farm gate" prices) and
(3) military subsistence estimated by valuing rations
in 1970 prices. The weight for durables and miscella-
neous goods represents retail sales reduced to reflect
only household purchases for consumption.
Household services. The weights represent estimated
household expenditures on these services based on a
wide variety of Soviet sources, mainly studies by
individual researchers published in books and journal
articles.
Communal services. The weights are the sums of
estimated expenditures for education and health (1) by
households based on a variety of Soviet and other
sources and (2) by the government, derived from
official data on wages and employment and on budget
expenditures for other items, net of investment outlays
and stipends.
On the whole, the expenditure weights are considered
to be quite reliable. Although nominal consumption
may be overstated because of inability to remove some
non-consumption expenditures from retail sales of
goods and services, the total can be reconciled fairly
well with official Soviet values for consumption. The
total, of course, does not take into account black
market prices and other activities carried on in the
illegal "second" economy. Such activities are not
included in GNP in other countries either. In the
Soviet case, moreover, they probably generate mainly
price increases and income transfers rather than
additions to the supply of real goods and services.'' As
for individual category weights, which are based on
specific Soviet sources and assumptions, their magni-
tudes generally are supported by other information
that is available. Also, the revealed expenditure pat-
tern agrees well with that given by official statistics
based on family budget surveys (Narkhoz 1977, pp.
409-410), and, in general, with what one would expect
on the basis of international comparisons for a coun-
try at the USSR's level of development as measured
by per capita GNP and consumption:4 Data from
surveys of the family budgets of urban Jewish emi-
grees also support the relationships, when allowance is
made for the unrepresentative composition of the
sample."
The 1970 weights used to aggregate the component
indexes, both for major categories and for their sub-
categorits, are probably about as accurate as can be
obtained with the data base and understanding of its
meaning that are available at present. Although a
number of estimates and assumptions had to be made
in the process of constructing these weights, the
impact of any errors cannot be large. If anything, the
values for consumption as a whole and for some
categories are probably overstated, a tentative conclu-
sion stemming from the fact that successive revisions
in the weights, based on new information invariably
produced lower values. The data underlying the
weights for individual sub-categories are of uneven
quality, a matter that will be considered in the
following section.
Many personal services are provided privately, both legally and
illegally. The expenditure weights for repair and personal care and
health and education services include a substantial allowance for
such services, based on a variety of information.
' Data on comparative expenditure patterns are given in Schroeder
and Edwards, op. cit.; International Labour Office, Household
Income and Expenditure Statistics, No. 3, 1968-1976, Geneva,
1979; V. Cao-Pinna and S. S. Shatalin, Comparison Patterns in
Eastern and Western Europe, New York, Pergamon Press, 1979.
" Gur Ofer and Aaron Vinokur, Private Sources of Income of the
Soviet Urban Household, RAND, R-2359-NA, August 1980, pp.
53-69.
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Indexes
The indexes of total consumption and major compo-
nents provide, it is believed, a reasonably reliable
measure of the growth of real consumption in the
USSR since 1950. Because the index is designed to
measure as closely as possible real consumption of
goods and services as measured in the West, this
overall judgement lends confidence to international
comparisons of relative progress in raising levels of
living in the USSR and in other countries. The index
is also a better indicator of the growth of consumption
in the postwar period than are the Soviet official
statistical series intended for that purpose, because
the index is more inclusive and because it largely
avoids the use of the unreliable official retail price
indexes.
The index is considered much more reliable for
depicting long-run trends than year-to-year changes.
Inaccuracy in measuring the latter stems from the
limitations of data availability. Absence of data for
particular years necessitated interpolation in a num-
ber of cases, or resort to estimates based on a variety
of evidence in other cases. Also, use of production
data to represent some series may distort annual
changes in actual consumption, especially for agricul-
tural products; however, adjustments for inventory
change and net foreign trade were made where avail-
able data permitted doing so.
The individual time series selected to measure con-
sumption of particular categories of goods and serv-
ices necessarily were constrained by the availability of
data. Every effort was made to scour the literature
and to select or construct data series that seemed most
suitable as measures of changes in real consumption
over time. Some series are based on measures of
production or of consumption expressed in physical
units (kilograms, square meters, kilowatt-hours and
the like); others are based on deflated retail sales,
while others are deflated government expenditures.
The series are of uneven quality, a point that will be
elaborated later for each major component index.
Indexes at Factor Cost and in Adjusted Market Prices
Factor Cost
As Bergson has shown,16 measures of Soviet consump-
tion in established prices (prevailing ruble prices)
1' Bergson, 1961, pp. 103-126.
require modification to correct for distortions in So-
viet prices, which fail to reflect either full resource
costs (production potential) or consumers' marginal
utilities as they would be expressed in a free market.
Where the concern is with production potential (and
perhaps also with welfare in terms of planners' prefer-
ences), ruble prices need to be adjusted (1) to remove
turnover taxes, now levied mainly on soft goods,
durables and alcoholic beverages; (2) to add subsidies,
now applicable mainly to food and to housing; and (3)
to allow for a resource charge for capital. A factor
cost adjustment to 1970 ruble values has been made
for GNP and its end-use components.'' For consump-
tion the procedure resulted in a net reduction in total'
consumption of 3.3 billion rubles, or 1.6 percent.
Table 5 compares the growth rate of consumption and
its major components aggregated (1) with established
price weights and (2) with 1970 ruble factor cost
weights. The factor cost weights reduce the growth of
total consumption by about one-tenth for the period as
a whole because the adjustment raises the weight of
the relatively slow-growing housing component and
reduces the weight of the fast-growing durables com-
ponent. Also, the index of food, beverages, and tobac-
co grows more slowly when factor cost weights are
used, because the factor cost adjustment raises the
weight of the relatively slow-growing animal products
sub-index and sharply reduces the weight of the very
fast growing index of beverages. Meat prices are
heavily subsidized, and alcoholic beverages are heav-
ily taxed.
The adjustment reduces the share of consumption in
GNP in 1970 from 55.1 percent to 54.2 percent. The
effects on relative shares of major categories within
consumption in 1970 are shown in Table 2.
Adjusted Market Prices
Bergson also considered the question of the extent to
which relative prices in consumer goods markets in
the USSR conform to his "consumer utility stan-
dard."" For retail prices to reflect relative utilities in
the Soviet context, consumers must be free to dispose
of money incomes as they choose and government
price-fixing must succeed, by and large, in limiting
demand to supply. Consumption in kind, in turn,
should be valued at retail prices that reflect consumer
utilities. Similarly, housing rents should reflect the
levels that would obtain in an open market.
For a description of the procedure, see JEC, GNP, 1950-80.
' Bergson, 1961, pp. 157-172.
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Table 5
Average Annual Percent
Growth Rates of Total Consumption and Major Categories in Established Prices
and at Factor Cost, Selected Years, 1950-80
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
Established
Prices
Factor
Cost
Established
Prices
Factor
Cost
Established
Prices
Factor
Cost
3.1
3.0
2.0
4.0
8.6
3.2
Total consumption
6.1
5.3
5.1
4.5
3.5
3.4
2.2
4.0
8.6
3.7
Goods
6.4
5.7
5.0
4.3
Food
5.2
4.8
4.3
3.7
Soft goods
8.8
8.8
5.8
5.8
Durables
15.9
15.9
7.8
7.8
Services
4.8
4.5
5.6
4.9
How did the situation in markets for consumer goods
and services in 1970 conform to this theoretical
standard? What adjustments in the 1970 established
price weights would be needed, if they were to reflect
relative utilities? We consider in turn, retail prices of
goods, consumption in kind, and household services,
including housing.
The overall Market for consumer goods and services in
1970 probably was not seriously in disequilibrium. In
that year, the average savings rate was a low 5.2
percent, although the marginal propensity to save
jumped sharply.' This change probably reflected con-
sumers' reaction to the expected (and actual) rapid
increase in the number of new cars made available for
purchase by the population. Cash is required for
purchase of such high-priced durable goods, and
people's expectations of being able to obtain one of
these much desired items were greatly heightened.
Clearly, however, there were numerous disequilibria
in markets for individual goods and services-sur-
phises of some items, manifested in Spring clearance
sales and price cuts and some "above norm" inventory
accumulations-and shortages of other goods, reflect-
ed in sporadic queues and reported black markets.
With respect to products (mainly food) sold in both
types of outlets, prices paid in ex-village collective
farm markets (CFMs) exceeded the prices paid in
state and cooperative retail outlets by an average of
59 percent. A part of that difference reflects the much
superior quality of the products sold in CFMs. We
" JEC 1979, p. 766.
might assume that half of the differential is a quality
premium, leaving the rest to be accounted for by the
inability to obtain the fresh foods involved in state
stores. If the total quantity supplied were sold on a
single market, the uniform price would be above the
average state store price, but below the CFM average
price adjusted for quality. Since the price and income
elasticities of demand, as well as the individual prices
and quantities of the products involved are not known,
the equilibrium prices cannot be determined. If they
were known, the relevant values used as weights in the
index theoretically would need to be adjusted to
reflect those prices. To provide an idea of the size of
the adjustment, we assume that for the products
involved (fresh foods) the average state price is 30
,percent below the average CFM price, taking into
account quality differences. Valuing state store sales
at that price adds 5.6 billion rubles to consumption.
As Bergson notes, consumption in kind theoretically
also should be valued at that "equilibrium" price-
here assumed to be 30 percent above the state store
level-less distribution and processing markups. In
1970, food subsidies paid by the state to food proces-
sors to compensate for the difference between pro-
curement prices and retail prices for meat and milk
amounted to some 11.9 billion rubles. The estimated
gross subsidy per ton was 694 rubles for meat and
68.32 rubles for milk." Household consumption in
kind can be revalued at the subsidized prices after
deducting processing and distribution costs estimated
at 10 percent of those values. The results then need to
be again revalued to reflect the assumed retail "equi-
librium" price of 30 percent above the state price
level. For products other than meat and milk, a rough
" Constance B. Krueger, ACES Bulletin, Fall, 1974, pp. 66-67.
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allowance of 10 percent was made for processing and
distribution costs of state procured products, and the
average retail prices so estimated were then raised by
30 percent to bring them to the assumed "equilibri-
um" price. The final result is to reduce consumption
in kind by 5.6 billion rubles (12.7 compared with
18.3). Military subsistence is assumed to be correctly
valued in terms of the consumers utility standard,
since the original prices are a combination of retail
and CFM prices, more or less. The effects of the two
hypothetical adjustments to 1970 valuations cancel
out, leaving the value of the goods component of
consumption unchanged.
Relative prices for housing and some household ser-
vices in 1970 clearly did not correspond to the result
that would have obtained in an open market. Urban
housing was rationed and rents heavily subsidized; the
basic rental rate was the same as in 1928. Prices for
utilities, public transport, communications and other
services also had remained fixed for many years.
Following Bergson's approach, we revalue housing
and household services in 1970, so that their price is
related to that for goods in the ratio that prevailed in
the United States in 1976. We use the ruble/dollar
ratios given in the paper by Schroeder and Edwards."
The result is to more than treble the value of these
services, raising it from 21.6 billion rubles to 68.4
billion rubles. Education and health services, mainly
government provided and valued at current cost, are
re-valued at factor cost, thus increasing their level
from 23.0 billion rubles to 27.2 billion rubles.
The impact of all these revaluations is shown below:
Established
Billion
Rubles
Prices
Percent
Adjusted Prices
Billion
Rubles
Percent
Goods
166.5
78.9
166.5
63.5
Household
services
21.6
10.2
68.4
26.1
Education &
health
23.0
10.9
27.2
10.4
Total
211.1
100.0
262.0
100.0
When the indexes are reweighted with adjusted price
weights, the average annual growth of consumption
during 1951-80 is 5.2 percent instead of 4.9 percent.
The index is speeded up a little because of the much
Gertrude E. Schroeder and Imogene Edwards, op. cit., p. 73.
larger weights given to the most rapidly expanding
categories-household services, most notably trans-
portation, communications and utilities. The structure
of Soviet consumption in adjusted prices more closely
resembles that of developed market economies, such as
Italy, than does the structure in established prices; in
those prices, the ratio of goods to all services resembles
that of India. It could be argued that in 1970 excess de-
mand for housing was relatively much greater than
that for household services; indeed, excess demand for
such services as public transportation, communications
and utilities was not especially evident (i.e., by queues
and waiting lists). To consider the effect of this
possibility, the above calculation was carried out with a
revaluation only for housing among the household
services. The result was to slow the index of total
consumption somewhat-from an average annual
growth of 4.9 percent to 4.5 percent during 1951-80.
Comparison With Other Indexes
Official Soviet Measures
As already noted, the Soviet government does not
publish an index of real per capita consumption that
can properly be compared with measures available for
Western countries. For a number of years before
1976, the government published periodic data on total
"personal consumption" and "material expenditures
of institutions serving the population" in current
rubles. The only published deflator related to final
consumption is an index of retail prices in state and
cooperative outlets. The index which shows almost no
change in the price level since 1955, has been judged
seriously unreliable." Indexes of collective farm mar-
ket prices in the USSR as a whole have not been
published since 1968, although an aggregate index
can be calculated indirectly from regularly published
data.
The Soviet consumption data refer to consumption as
a component of national income (net material prod-
uct), omitting labor in all services but including some
depreciation on housing and on the capital stock in the
services sector. For 1961-1975, the only period for
which a comparable series in available, the Soviet
measure of total consumption per capita deflated by
" See articles by Gertrude E. Schroeder and Morris Bornstein in
Treml and Hardt, pp. 307-312, 370-376.
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an index of official retail prices (including CFM
prices) grows much more rapidly than the CIA index
of real per capita consumption.
Soviet Measures
Current
Prices
Constant
Prices
CIA Index
Constant
Prices
1960
100.0
100.0
100.0
1975
211.1
209.6
166.8
Average annual
growth
5.1
5.1
3.5
The Soviet government also gauges progress in raising
living standards by a regularly published statistical
series labeled "real incomes of the population," ex-
pressed per capita. Although the exact nature of this
published statistic is something of a puzzle 23 it
apparently measures real per capita consumption of
goods and material services.' As described in an
official source, the \calculation for each year: (1) begins
with money incomes from all sources (2) deducts taxes,
savings, change in bank loans and cash balances, and
payments for services to arrive at money expenditures
for the purchase of goods (3) adds incomes in kind,
material expenditures (including depreciation) of insti-
tutions serving the population�transportation, health,
education and others�payments for utilities, the value
of cooperative housing constructed, and depreciation
on state housing, and (4) deflates current values with
an index of the prices of goods. In coverage, it differs
from the CIA index of consumption, mainly by
inclusion of cooperative housing, depreciation on
housing and on the capital stock in services and by
exclusion of labor services. As Table 6 shows, the
official index grows much more rapidly than the CIA
index�almost half again as fast for the period as a
whole. The difference is greater in the 1970s than in
earlier periods.
The reasons for the faster growth of the official index
of real incomes are obscure. Neither the structure of
that index in current values nor the deflator has been
published. Why the official index increases more
rapidly compared with the CIA index in some periods
than in others also is not evident. Differences in
" Gertrude E. Schroeder in Treml and Hardt, pp. 304-307.
" The most complete description of how real incomes apparently are
calculated is given in USSR Gosplan, Metodicheskiye ukazaniya k
razrabotke gosudarstvennogo plana razvitiya narodnogo kho-
zyaystva SSSR, Moscow, 1969, pp. 499-505. (Hereafter referred to
as Metodicheskiye ukazaniya.)
coverage may be part of the explanation, for the CIA
index includes personnel services in education, health
and other services, which apparently grow more slow-
ly than materials used in these sectors. The main
reason however, seems to lie in the faulty price index
used in the Soviet index to deflate current expendi-
tures and imputed depreciation. The CIA index, in
contrast, attempts to measure real quantities of goods
and services consumed. Comparison of this index with
an index in current prices provides an implied mea-
sure of price inflation.
Other Western Measures
Only two Western measures of Soviet real consump-
tion are available for comparison with the CIA index-
es�one calculated by Janet Chapman " for the peri-
od 1950-58 and one calculated by Abraham Becker "
for the period 1958-64. The construction of both of
these series begins with estimates of consumption
constructed in current prices. The sub-categories of
consumption are then deflated by price indexes of one
kind or another. Both measures follow concepts and
methodologies developed by Abram Bergson. The
Chapman index for 1955-58 and the Becker index, in
effect, employ Soviet official price deflators for goods
purchased at retail prices. The Chapman index for
1951-55 uses Bergson's calculations for the period."
The implicit Bergson-Chapman deflator gives nearly
the same rate of price change for the period as does a
weighted index of official indexes of prices in state
and cooperative stores and of prices on collective farm
markets."'The Bergson-Chapman implicit price index
for 1955 (1950=100) is 78.0;" the combined official
price index is 77.6 or 76.7, with 1950 and 1955
weights, respectively.
With respect to the other components, matters are
more complex. In general, the Bergson and Becker
indexes (1) value consumption in kind, housing, and
personal services in physical quantities in constant
sets of prices (2) deflate the wage component of
expenditures on health and education by an index of
wages and (3) deflate nonlabor expenditures on health
and education by composite deflators compiled from
various sources (Bergson; Becker elected not to deflate
such expenditures.) The Chapman index for 1956-58
Janet G. Chapman, /oc. cit., in 7 'above.
" Abraham Becker, /oc. cit., in above.
" Bergson, 1961, pp. 307-308.
" Narkhoz 1958, pp. 699, 771, 787.
" Bergson, 1961, pp. 46, 85.
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Table 6
Comparison of Official and CIA Measures of Soviet Per Capita Consumption
Indexes
Average Annual
(1950=100)
Rates of Growth
(Percent)
Soviet Index
CIA Index of
Soviet
CIA
of Real Incomes
per Capita a
Real Per Capita
Consumption b
Index
Index
1950
100
100
1955
142
125
1951-55
7.3
4.5
1958
173
143
1956-60
5.6
4.0
1960
187
151
1961-65
3.6
2.4
1964
209
163
1966-70
5.9
5.1
1965
223
171
1971-75
4.4
2.9
1966
236
179
1976-80
3.4
2.2
1967
252
189
1968
268
200
1951-60
6.5
4.2
1969
281
210
1961-70
4.7
3.8
1970
297
219
1971-80
3.9
2.5
1971
310
226
1972
323
229
1951-80
5.0
3.5
1973
339
236
1974
352
244
1975
368
252
1976
384
257
1977
397
263
1978
408
269
1979
419
276
1980
435
- 282
a The index was put together from indexes for various periods given
in Narkhoz 1965, p. 593; Narkhoz 1967, p. 674; Narkhoz 1970, p.
537; Narkhoz 1975, p. 567; and Narkhoz 1980, p. 380.
b Table A-2. Growth rates were calculated from unrounded data.
is deflated variously by a cost of living index given in
a Soviet source, the official index of state retail prices,
and an index of the change in average wages.
Table 7 compares the rates of growth given by the
Bergson, Chapman, and Becker indexes of total con-
sumption with the rates shown by the CIA index. As
can be observed, the CIA index increases more slowly
than the other Western indexes in all of the periods
compared. Many reasons could account for the diver-
gence�somewhat different concepts, different treat-
ment of some expenditure categories, data availabil-
ities, and others. Since none of the indexes has been
extended to recent years, there seems little point in
trying to measure the impact of these factors. Prob-
ably the main reason for the differences is that the
CIA index is largely an aggregation of physical
measures of consumption weighted by expenditures in
1970 prices, while the other Western indexes employ
earlier base-year weights and rely much more heavily
on deflated value measures, with the deflators differ-
ing little from the official retail price indexes pub-
lished by the Soviet government. Also, in constructing
the CIA index, use could be made of a considerably
larger body of data and information that has become
available in the past 15-20 years.
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Table 7 Average Annual Percentage
Rates of Growth
Comparisons of CIA Index of Total
Consumption With Indexes Constructed
by Bergson, Chapman, and Becker
1951-55 1956-58 1951-58
1959-64
CIA , 6.3 6.5 6.4 3.9
Bergson b
Chap-
man c
9.1 (8.1)
7.9 7.4 7.7
Becker d 5.3
a Table A-1.
b Consumption is valued at 1950 prevailing prices. (Bergson, 1961,
pp. 85, 149). Figure in parenthesis reflects a valuation in 1950 ruble
factor cost.
c Chapman, /oc. cit., pp. 238, 271. The index for 1951-55 is
calculated in adjusted market prices of 1937, taken or derived from
data in Bergson, 1961, pp. 128, 134, 165. The extension to 1958 is
based on estimated values in current prices and various deflators.
Sources are given in Chapman, /oc. cit., p. 272.
d Underlyng values are in 1958 established prices. Becker, 1969,
p. 526.
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Description and Evaluation of
Component Indexes
Goods
The index of goods is the weighted sum of three
category indexes�food, soft goods, and durables and
miscellaneous goods. The weights are expenditures on
the three categories in 1970, derived as explained in
detail in CIA, GNP 1970 and in Appendix D of JEC,
GNP, 1950-80. The weights for sub-indexes of the
three major category indexes are consistent in concept
and method of derivation with the major category
weights. All weights are shown in ruble values or
percentages in Appendix A, along with the indexes.
Food, Beverages, and Tobacco
Scope and Coverage. The category Food, Beverages
and Tobacco comprises (1) household purchases of
these items in state and cooperative retail outlets and
in collective farm markets, including purchases in
restaurants and canteens (2) household consumption
in kind of food products, obtained mainly from private
farming and (3) military subsistence. The concept
coincides with the category "Food and Tobacco" in
the personal consumption expenditures in US national
accounts. Although the index is a sample index, it
covers 94.4 percent of estimated total consumption of
the relevant products. Only minor food items, such as
salt, spices, and condiments, are not included; all
important alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, ex-
cept kvass and coffee, and all tobacco products are
included.
The composite index is a weighted aggregate of 18
sub-indexes 15 for foods, two for beverages and one
for tobacco. The weights for the sub-indexes represent
expenditures in 1970 prices derived to be consistent in
concept with the weights for the category as a whole.
The weights for the sub-indexes are considered rea-
sonably reliable. The sub-indexes are based on phys-
ical quantity series except for the indexes for macaro-
ni and for tobacco, which represent deflated retail
sales. Indexes and weights are shown in Appendix A.
Table A-1; underlying data and sources are given in
Appendix B.
Ten sub-indexes for food products, with 63 percent of
the weight, are based on official data on per capita
consumption of these products in kilograms or phys-
ical units. The consumption data, which have been
published regularly since 1965,' are based on a
variety of sources, principally on balances of the
supply and uses of agricultural products and on
periodic family budget surveys. While the latter have
been criticized for lack of representativeness, the
results they give, according to Soviet statements, are
checked against availabilities given by the product
balances. Although the absolute levels in any one year
must be used with great care in international com-
parisons (because of definitional problems), the data
are considered reliable in trend. They are reasonably
consistent with statistics for production, intermediate
uses, changes in inventories, and net imports. The
present approach to constructing the food index uses
all of the per capita consumption series that are
published and replaces an extremely complex method-
ology used earlier.' That approach relied on produc-
tion data, with numerous adjustments and estimates
being required to fill in gaps in information. The
physical consumption data are believed to provide an
improved measure of year-to-year changes in con-
sumption, compared with the production-based series.
Four sub-indexes for food products and the two sub-
indexes for beverages with a total weight of 34
percent are based on physical production data, adjust-
ed where possible for inventory change, net imports,
and quality changes. Data availabilities constrained
the extent of such adjustments. Such lacunae, along
with gaps in the series of data on per capita consump-
tion, reduce the reliability of the sub-indexes, espe-
cially with respect to year-to-year changes.
The two sub-indexes based on deflated retail sales (3
percent of the total weight) employ official retail price
indexes as deflators; these indexes probably are not
seriously in error for the two products concerned
(macaroni and tobacco). They do take account of
changes in quality and mix, however. Although such
changes are not reflected in the series based on
consumption in physical units, this failure is probably
not too serious in the case of most food products.
" The method of calculating the physical measures of per capita
consumption is described in Vest slat. No. 2, 1968, pp. 46-50.
This methodology was used to construct the index that was
published in JEC, /976, pp. 641-650 and in all versions published
earlier.
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Table 8
Derivation of 1970 Weights for Components of the
Index of Food, Beverages, and Tobacco
Retail
Sales for
Consumption a
(Billion Rubles)
Military
Subsistence c
(Billion Rubles)
Consumption
in Kind d
(Billion
Rubles)
Total Consumption
CFM
Sales for
Consumption b.
(Billion Rubles)
(Billion
Rubles)
(Percent)
Total
79.924
3.001
1.970
16.964
101.859
100.00
Meat
11.793
1.024
.690
6.702
20.209
19.84
Fish
2.963
.110
3.073
3.02
.98
Vegetable oil
.844
.058
.094
.996
Margarine
.621
.621
.61
Milk
4.508
.293
.071
4.148
9.020
8.86
3.20
.71
Butter
2.677
.121
.461
3.259
.723
Cheese
.723
Eggs
1.573
.231
.165
1.679
3.648
3.58
Sugar
5.089
.080
5.169
5.07
Confectioneries
5.744
5.744
5.64
Tea
.580
.020
.600
.59
Flour and groats
9.295
.130
.377
.309
10.111
9.93
Macaroni
.534
.014
.548
.54
Potatoes
.718
.753
.072
2.490
4.033
3.96
3.24
Vegetables
2.486
.224
.072
.517
3.299
Fruit
3.130
.346
.120
.564
4.160
4.08
23.43
Alcoholic beverages and
soft drinks
23.866
23.866
Tobacco
2.780
2.780
2.73
a Retail sales reported in Narkhoz 1972, pp. 584-585, minus
purchases by state enterprises and institutions in small-scale
wholesale trade (melkiy opt). Such purchases were deducted, based
on their reported shares in 1968-1969 as given in Vest stat, No. 5,
1971, pp. 36-37. No attempt was made to distribute the deduction
for business restaurant meals or the reported total value of the
markup added to the costs of products sold in restaurants.
Collective farm market purchases were distributed by product
group on the basis of the following data: (1) a distribution of sales in
all CFMs in 1957 (1. D. Ignatov, Puti razvitiya kolkhoznoy torgovli,
Moscow, 1959, p. 15; (2) indexes of the physical volume of total CFM
sales during 1958-68 (Narkhoz 1959, p. 708 and Narkhoz 1968, p.
654); (3) price indexes for 1958-68 compiled from those for all CFM
sales during 1958-63 (Narkhoz 1959, p. 667; and Narkhoz 1968, p.
655); (4) ruble values for 1957 obtained from the shares given in
Ignatov and a value of total sales given in Narkhoz 1959, p. 708; (5)
extending these values to 1968 with current value indexes dervied
from the indexes of physical volume and price; (6) assuming that the
relative shares so obtained for 1968 held in 1970. Institutional
purchases were deducted, based on information in Vest slat, No. 5,
1971, p. 39.
CIA estimates based on information concerning the basic military
food ration and its estimated costs.
d,ciA, GNP 1970, pp. 32-35. A value for fruit was estimated using
the methodology described thefe..The value for butter represents the
milk equivalent of 104,000 tons of private production Narkhoz 1970,
p. 151) valued at average realized prices. Consumption in kind of
sunflower seeds was allocated to vegetable oil.
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Weights. The derivation of the 1970 weights for the
sub-indexes is shown in Table 8. Essentially, the task
was to disaggregate the components of the total
weight�retail sales for consumption, collective farm
market sales for consumption, military subsistence,
and consumption in kind. The distribution of retail
sales (the bulk of the total) could be made with
considerable confidence, using published retail sales
data and the assumption that the distribution of sales
to enterprises and institutions was the same in 1970 as
in 1968-69. Lack of data precluded allocation of the
public catering markup, amounting to 2.4 percent of
total retail sales of food and beverages. The distribu-
tions of CFM sales and military consumption are far
less certain, but probably not grossly wrong. The
distribution of consumption in kind is given by the
methodology for estimating its total value and is
thought to be reasonably accurate.
Indexes. The primary data underlying all of the sub-
indexes are given in Appendix B. Ten sub-indexes are
based on officially published data for per capita
consumption expressed in kilograms or units; these
data are converted to total consumption using mid-
year population data. These sub-indexes are: meat,
fish, vegetable oil, milk, eggs, sugar, flour and groats,
potatoes, vegetables, and fruit. Consumption so ob-
tained for milk was reduced by milk used to produce
cheese and butter: consumption of sugar was reduced
to remove sugar used to produce confectionery pro-
ducts: consumption of flour and groats was reduced to
remove flour used in the production of confectioneries
and macaroni. The basic data on per capita consump-
tion are given for 1950, 1958, 1960, and 1964-65 in
Narkhoz 1965, p. 597; for 1966-67 in Narkhoz 1967,
p. 697; for each year 1968-80 similar data are pub-
lished in the respective year's Narkhoz in similar
tables. Data for the years 1951-57 and 1959 were
interpolated on the basis of growth rates for produc-
tion of each product over the intervening periods.
While the results for the period as a whole are
reasonably consistent with production data, the rates
of growth for 1951-55 and 1956-58 shown by the
physical consumption data are subject to considerable
and probably varying margins of error. Values for
1961-63 also were obtained by interpolation, by use of
production data, or with data on the value of con-
sumption in current rubles given in Narkhoz 1964,
pp. 580-81. The data required to remove the milk,
sugar, and flour used in making those products for
which separate sub-indexes are calculated are found
in various statistical handbooks and a variety of other
Soviet sources, as are the data used to calculate
indexes of quality change for confectionery products
and for flour and groats.
Six of the component indexes are based on production
in physical units: margarine, butter, cheese, confec-
tioneries, tea, and alcoholic beverages and soft drinks.
Where necessary and possible, the production data
were adjusted to allow for net imports and net
inventory change. The index for beverages is the sum
of production in dekaliters of 7 products, combined
with 1970 average price weights. Data on imports and
exports are regularly published in the annual trade
handbooks (Vneshnaya torgovlya SSSR). Data on
wholesale and retail inventories were regularly pub-
lished in two tables in the annual Narkhozy (e.g.
Narkhoz 1972, pp. 591, 593) until 1976; the tables
were dropped from the handbooks after 1975, thus
introducing some inaccuracies in the indexes for
subsequent years. The indexes for confectioneries and
flour and groats incorporate indexes of quality to
reflect changes in product mix. The indexes for
tobaccd. and macaroni are based on deflated retail
sales, using official Soviet retail price indexes.
Soft Goods
Scope and Coverage. The "soft goods- category com-
prises (1) household purchases of 16 categories of
consumer nondurable goods that are explicitly listed
in Soviet retail trade data, plus an estimated share of
an unidentified residual in those data; (2) household
purchases of similar goods in collective farm mar-
kets-----a minor item; (3) military consumption of such
goods; and (4) consumption in kind of wool. Over four-
fifths of the weight for the category consists of
clothing and footwear and related items. Although the
index for soft goods is based on a sample, it covers 94
percent of the total estimated consumption of these
goods in 1970. The only items separately listed in
Soviet retail trade data that are not specifically
,included are fur products and matches. A variety of
odds and ends that are included in residual (unidenti-
fied) retail sales are also excluded, however; the most
important of these are medicines and gasoline.
The index for soft goods is a weighted aggregate of 16
sub-indexes. All but 5 of the 16 pertain to clothing,
and footwear (including fabrics). The weights for the
sub-indexes were derived in a manner consistent with
the derivation of the weight for the category as a
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whole. They are considered to be quite reliable. Seven
of the indexes with 72 percent of the weight are based
on production series, and the rest are based on
deflated retail sales, using official retail price indexes.
When possible, the indexes based on physical produc-
tion data have been adjusted for net foreign trade and
inventory change. Three of these indexes can be
compared with indexes derived from official Soviet
data on per capita consumption in physical units and
with deflated retail sales. The comparisons are shown
below (1950=100). The CIA indexes agree quite well
with those based on Soviet data on per capita
consumption.
Knitwear Hosiery Leather
Footwear
ABC
A
B
C
A
B
C
1960
314
274
443
224
204
358
206
206
315
1975
758
809
2,275
331
316
1,235
411
364
901
A�Index derived from Soviet per capita consumption data in
physical units, including imports.
B�CIA index.
C�Indexes derived from official deflated retail sales.
But both indexes grow much less rapidly than those
based on officially deflated retail sales. No doubt, the
physically based measures understate the real growth
of consumption of these items because they do not take
account of improvements in quality and product
assortment. On the other hand, deflated retail sales
indexes surely overstate real growth, since the price
deflators are known to have a downward bias. There is
no way to determine the degree of bias independently
because there are no suitable price data.
The index for clothing (sewn garments) with a third of
the soft goods weight is based on official Soviet data on
the value of production in so-called constant (1967)
prices. It, too, increases much more slowly than the
value of officially deflated retail sales: the respective
indexes for 1975 (1950=100) are 608 and 1048. Both
indexes, as well as the others discussed above, overstate
real growth of consumption to some extent because
they do not take into account the shift from home
production to factory manufacture. Although both
deflated value indexes (production and retail sales) are
believed to have unreliable deflators, that for retail
sales is considered the least accurate. The comments
about the reliability of official retail price indexes
apply also to the 6 sub-indexes that are based on
deflated retail sales. There are .no alternative data to
use in estimating consumption of these items. Because
of the familiar faults of official price indexes, the
indexes probably have an upward bias. One can hope,
but not be certain that the various biases more or less
cancel out. However, the composite index of consump-
tion derived here clearly is preferable to a measure that
relies entirely on official values and price deflators.
The CIA indexes for clothing and related items, based
on production, do not allow for imports, which come
mainly from CEMA countries. Although imports rose
rapidly during the 1950s, they were miniscule relative
to the value of retail sales. During the 1960s, imports in
current prices increased at about the same rate as the
value of production in constant prices. Although
imports in current prices increased faster than real
production in the 1970s, prices of imports evidently
increased rapidly also. From this evidence, it appears
that the CIA index for clothing is not seriously biased
downward by failure to allow for imports. Exports of
clothing have been negligible throughout the period.
Weights. The derivation of the 1970 expenditure '
weights for the soft goods index is shown in Table 9.
Essentially, the task was to disaggregate the principal
expenditure categories�retail sales for consumption
and military subsistence. The allocation of retail sales
to sub-groups can be made with confidence from
published retail sales data and assumptions about the
distribution of sales to enterprises and institutions. The
distribution of the military clothing ration is tenuous
but is probably not grossly wrong. Because their
content is unknown, purchases of soft goods in
collective farm markets, a small sum, were not
distributed. The value of consumption in kind of wool
was obtained by the methodology used to derive the
total of such consumption and is thought to be
reasonably reliable; the wool was assumed to be used to
produce various items of knitted clothing.
Indexes. The data underlying all sub-indexes are
given in Appendix C. Six sub-indexes are based on
physical production data available in Promyshlennost'
SSSR 1964 and in annual Narkhozy. They include:
knitted outerwear, knitted underwear, leather foot-
wear, rubber footwear, felt footwear, and hosiery. The
series for leather footwear was adjusted for net trade
and inventory change needed because of rapidly
rising imports. These adjustments could not be made
for the other categories; imports are known to be
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Table 9
Derivations of 1970 Weights for Components of the Index of Soft Goods
Retail Sales
for Consumption a
(Billion Rubles)
Military
Subsistence b
(Billion Rubles)
Consumption
in Kind'
(Billion
Rubles)
Total Consumption
(Billion
Rubles)
Percent
Total
40.370
1.199
.112
41.681
100.0
Cotton fabrics
1.360
1.360
3.3
Wool fabrics
1.003
1.003
2.4
Silk fabrics
1.141
1.141
2.7
Linen fabrics
.246
.246
.6
Clothing
13.022 d
.932
13.954
33.6
Knit underwear
2.603
.043
2.646
6.3
Knit outerwear
4.127
.071
.112
4.310
10.3
Hosiery
1.691
.020
1.711
4.1
Leather footwear
6.210
.123
6.333
15.2
Rubber footwear
.865
.865
2.1
Felt footwear
.214
.214
.5
Household soaps and detergents
.651
.651
1.6
Toilet soap and cosmetics
1.140
1:140
2.7
Haberdashery and thread
3.623
.010
3.633
8.7
School and office supplies
.834
.834
2.0
Publications
1.640
1.640
3.9
a Total retail sales, less institutional purchases, services and commis-
sion sales. Retail sales are given in Narkhoz 1972, pp. 584-85.
Institutional purchases were distributed on the basis of the shares in
last half I968-first half 1969 shown in Vest stat, No. 5, 1971, p. 37.
Services were allocated on the basis of data in Narkhoz 1972, p.621.
Cloth used in repair and tailoring of clothing and knitwear was
allocated to fabrics in accordance with their respective shares in
retail trade. Laundry and dry cleaning services were allocated to
clothing.
b Military subsistence was distributed among groups on the basis of
information concerning the basic clothing ration and its cost by item.
Wool.
d Excluding fur and fur products.
negligible for other footwear. One indexclothing-
is based on official data on the value of production in
constant rubles; the data are given in the above-noted
sources. Few interpolations had to be made.
Fight indexes are based on deflated retail sales:
fabrics (cotton, wool, silk, linen), haberdashery, school
and office supplies, household soap and detergents,
and toilet soap and cosmetics. Retail sales in current
prices are available for nearly all years in the annual
Narkhozy (e.g., Narkhoz 1972, pp. 584-585) as are
specific indexes of state retail prices (e.g. Narkhoz
1972, p. 603). Price indexes for linen cloth, household
soap and detergents, and toilet soap and cosmetics
were derived from current values and published index-
es of the value of sales in constant prices (e.g.,
Narkhoz 1972, p. 555). The index for publications is
based on retail sales in current prices until 1977; no
important price changes are known to have been made
for these goods until then, the prices of which are kept
low as a matter of social policy.
Durables and Miscellaneous Goods
Scope and Coverage. The index implicitly covers all
goods purchased in state and cooperative retail out-
lets, except those covered by the indexes for "food,
beverages and tobacco" and for "soft goods." The
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index includes furniture, household appliances, radios
and TV sets, passenger cars, sports equipment, toys,
musical instruments, dishwares, motorcycles and bi-
cycles, watches and jewelry, and a variety of odds and
ends not specifically identified in the published data
on retail sales. The statistics are not detailed enough
to permit an accurate matching of the US classifica-
tion of goods into consumer durables and consumer
nondurables. Nonetheless, the classification used here
for the USSR�durables and miscellaneous goods�
consists mainly (at least four-fifths) of items classified
as durable goods in US national accounts.
The index for durables and miscellaneous goods is
based on a deflation of total retail sales of such goods;
it is not a sample index. Unfortunately, the coverage
of the index is not identical with that of the 1970
value weight, which is used to move the index, but this
discrepancy is not thought to be serious. With the
detail available, it is not possible to provide an exact
match. The coverage of the weight and the index
overlap by at least 80 percent. The items implicitly
covered by the index, but not by the weight, are repair
services for autos and household durables, building
materials, a variety of goods of unknown composition
included in a residual category in Soviet retail sales
data, and retail purchases made by state enterprises
and organizations.
The index based on the deflation of total retail sales of
durables and miscellaneous goods employs current
price values and an implicit official retail price index
as a deflator. Despite the reservations already noted
about the reliability of official retail price indexes, no
better approach to constructing the index could be
devised, given the paucity of data available. The
deflated sales approach replaced a method based on a
sample of nine product groups, some measured by
production or sales in physical units and some based
on retail sales. This sample, severely limited by the
availability of Soviet data, was seriously unrepresen-
tative. It was dominated by a group of goods�
furniture, household appliances, radio and TV sets
and automobiles�that increased very rapidly from
very low levels; these rapidly growing items made up
over two-thirds of the weight. Analysis of retail sales
data showed that the rest of the goods covered by the
weight were increasing much less rapidly. The unre-
liability of the sample index also was indicated by the
fact that its rate of growth was far higher than an
official production series in constant rubles labeled
"Proizvodstvo tovarov kul'turno-bytovogo naznachen-
iya i khozyaystvennogo ob'ikhoda," (cultural and
household goods�hereafter referred to as tovary),
which evidently includes most of the goods involved.
This value series itself is probably biased upward,
because of unreliable price deflators. Lack of data
precluded expansion of the sample to make it more
representative.
The present index based on deflated retail sales,
unlike physical value and production based indexes,
incorporates imported goods and reflects changes in
product mix and quality. On the other hand, it is
probably biased upward, because of the flaws in
official price indexes. Disguised price inflation may be
serious for durable goods, but there is no way to
estimate the degree of bias. The index can be com-
pared with two other measures with similar (though
not identical) coverage. One is the official Soviet
series for the production of household durables and
related items mentioned above. The series in constant
rubles (tovary) is believed to include automobiles and
to be distorted by changing coverage." The other
index is a composite of the CIA indexes for produc-
tion of consumer durables and furniture, weighted by
estimated value of retail sales for the two components
in 1970. These indexes, components of the CIA index
of Soviet industrial production, include passenger cars
" The coverage of the tovary series is not entirely clear. The
Narkhozy regularly provide data, mainly in physical units, for a list
of the "basic" kinds of goods included. Clearly, it includes household
appliances, radio and TV sets, musical instruments, motorcycles and
bicycles, furniture, household chemicals, dishware and many other
products. A key question is whether it includes passenger cars.
Although not absolutely certain, the weight of the evidence suggests
that it does. It is also probable that the coverage of the series has
been expanding. Both conclusions are supported by a lengthy
discussion of the tovary complex of goods in R. A. Lokshin, Spros,
proizvodstvo torgovlya, Moscow, 1975, pp. 185-216. Other evidence
for the belief that automobiles are included is provided by
comparisons of growth rates for production of tovary during 1971-75
with (1) growth rates for all components listed as included (Narkhoz
1975, pp. 294-295) and (2) growth rates for retail sales in constant
prices of all identified components for which such series are
available. Among the production series, all those with large weights
increased much less rapidly than tovary as a Whole. A similar
situation prevailed for the retail trade series. Finally, retail sales of
identified tovary (less furniture) in current prices rose by 44 percent
during 1971-75, residual retail sales of non-food goods, which
include cars, increased by 128 percent, and production of tovary
(including furniture) increased 64.5 percent. From what is known
about relative values of the various components, it is hard to account
for such a fast growth rate unless cars were included.
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and implicitly, all of the items included in the tovary
series except household chemicals. A comparison of
the three indexes is shown below (1950 = 100):
Index of Consump-
tion of Durables
and Miscellaneous
Goods
1960
449
408
428
1970
979
1,055
1,269
1975
1,660
1,773
2,018
Weighted by estimated retail sales of durables (78.4 percent) and of
furniture (21.6 percent)
Although the index of consumption grew more slowly
than the production-based indexes, the rates of growth
shown by the three indexes are not greatly different. A
number of factors may account for the differences: (1)
differences in coverage, (2) probable price inflation in
the tovary series, (3) the fact that the CIA production
index reflects the tovary series in part, (4) the
production-based series include exports and some non-
consumption usage, while the consumption index
reflects imports, (5) the production-based series allow
for inventory accumulations.
Weights. The 1970 weight represents the value of
relevant categories of goods identified in Soviet retail
sales data plus a share of the residual of unidentified
sales, less repair and other applicable services, commis-
sion sales, and purchases by state enterprises and
organizations. The details are described in Appendix D
of J EC, GNP, 1950-80. The category weight is judged
to be quite reliable.
Index. The index for durables and miscellaneous goods
is derived from three sets of regularly published data:
(I) value of retail sales by major product category in
current prices, found, for example, in Narkhoz 1975,
pp. 626-627; (2) indexes of prices in state and cooperat-
ive retail trade by majot product group (found, for
example in Narkhoz 1975, pp. 645), and (3) for a few
categories, indexes of the growth of retail sales in
constant prices (found, for example, in Narkhoz 1975,
p. 590). From these data it is possible to obtain a series
of ruble values of total retail sales of non-food goods in
constant 1970 rubles and likewise a series of similar
values for tobacco and for 17 categories of soft goods
that are included in our indexes for food beverages, and
tobacco and for soft goods. The sum of these 18 values
for each year was then subtracted from the total value
of non-food goods in that year to obtain the residual
value in constant 1970 rubles. The residual consists
almost entirely of durables and miscellaneous related
goods. The procedure, in effect, derives the price
deflator for this group of goods that is implicit in the
values and indexes in current and constant values
published by the Soviet government. This outcome is
CIA Index of Index of made possible by the fact that the official indexes of re-
Production of Tovary
Consumer tail prices are linked indexes employing given year
Durables weights (S. G. Stolyarov, 0 tsenakh i tsenoobrazovand
and Furniture v S'SSR, Moscow, 1969, p. 103). The values underlying
the index of durables and miscellaneous goods are
shown in Appendix D.
Services
The index of services is a weighted average of an index
of household services and an index of communal
services. The weights are those for 1970 used in GNP
by end use.
Household Services
The index for household services is a weighted aggre-
gate of six sub-indexes for major types of services�
housing, utilities, transportation, communications, re-
pair and personal care, and recreation. The indexes as
a group cover all of the major household services; any
services omitted would be insignificant in terms of
consumer expenditures. The Soviet Union lacks most
of the financial and related services that are impor-
tant in Western countries. Although some, such as
legal services, do exist, there are no data concerning
them. The 1970 expenditure weights used to aggre-
gate the 6 sub-indexes are those used in GNP by end
use; they are described in detail in CIA, GNP 1970
and in JEC, GNP, 1950-80, Appendix D. The data
underlying each of the sub-indexes are given in
Appendix E.
Housing. Scope and Coverage. The index measures
the flow of housing services in real terms by the
change in the total stock of living space available
expressed in square meters. The stock includes all
housing, public and private,,urban and rural. About
80 percent of rural housing and 25 percent of all
urban housing is privately owned. State housing con-
sists mainly of multi-family buildings, where small
apartments are rented at heavily subsidized rates. The
basic rates have not been changed since they were set
in the 1920s. In the US national accounts, housing
services as a component of personal consumption are
measured by expenditures in current prices, deflated
by an index for rents that is a component of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index.
Value data are not available for the Soviet Union.
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Presumably, an index based on housing space alone
understates the real gains by failing to capture quali-
tative improvements. However, there is little evidence
to show that the physical quality of housing construc-
tion per se in the USSR has improved much over the
years. Although the average size of a dwelling unit
increased between 1950 and 1978�by 17 percent for
public housing and 77 percent for private housing
(Narkhoz 1970, p. 541; Narkhoz 1978, pp. 393, 395),
urban housing remains crowded. The number of new
dwelling units built, however, has failed to keep up
with the number of new families formed. As a
consequence, many families and single persons must
share living quarters. Morton has estimated that in
1970 there were 1.23 households per dwelling unit, a
rough measure of the extent of overcrowding." Also,
urban families often must share kitchens and baths
with other families�some 30 percent do, according to
a recent Soviet source.' While state urban housing
has been increasingly provided with amenities�
baths, hot water, plumbing and electricity�most
rural housing and probably some private urban hous-
ing still lack all of them except electricity. Most of
this aspect of improvement in housing conditions is
captured in the index for utilities.
The diverse considerations discussed suggest that no
adjustment to the housing index needs to be made for
quality change. Probably the largest element in im-
provement of housing conditions for the individual
under Soviet conditions is simply more space, which
the index measures when expressed per capita.
Weights. The weight for housing is the sum of (1) cash
rents paid by tenants in urban public housing, (2) im-
puted rents at the state urban public rate per square
meter for owner-occupied urban private and all rural
housing, and (3) expenditures by tenants and owners
for current repair of housing. The derivation of the
weight is described in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 41. The
average state rental rate was obtained from a Soviet
source: use of that rate for imputation to owner-
occupied housing was considered appropriate. Al-
though the average quality of private housing con-
struction is perhaps lower than for state housing, the
average new privately built unit has been appreciably
larger than the average state unit since 1960. More-
over, the state rental rate covers only about one third
of total maintenance costs.
" JEC, 1979, p. 797.
" A. Andreev, Housing, Moscow, Novosti Press, 1976, pp. 14-15.
Index. The index used to measure housing services is
an index of total living space, computed as the sum of
separate estimates for midyear stocks of urban and
rural housing, respectively. The estimates are based
on data regularly published in annual statistical hand-
books (e.g., Narkhoz 1977, p. 415). Although urban
stocks are reported directly, rural stocks are not. They
can be estimated quite satisfactorily, however, from a
Soviet estimate of the stock in 1959, relevant official
data bearing on changes in the stock via new con-
struction and transfers to urban stocks, and an as-
sumption about retirement rates. The sources and
methodology for deriving the total stocks are de-
scribed in detail in Willard S. Smith, "Housing in the
Soviet Union: Big Plans, Little Action," in JEC, 1973,
pp. 419-422. This source gives the estimates for 1950,
1955-71; estimates for 1951-54 were interpolated.
Estimates for 1972-80 were obtained by the same
methodology with data given in Narkhoz 1975, pp.
570, 576, 578, and for subsequent years in compara-
ble tables in the respective annual Narkhozy.
Utilities. Scope and Coverage. The sector comprises
household public utilities� electricity, gas, and cen-
tralized supply of heat and hot water, cold water and
sewage disposal. The index, a composite of three
series expressed in physical units, is designed to
measure household outlays on these services in real
terms. The sector is defined in the same way as the
Soviet category "communal payments," (Metodiches-
kiye ukazaniya, 1969, p. 535) except that outlays on
hotels and dormitories, included there, are classified
in recreation and in housing in the GNP accounts.
As defined here, the sector is essentially the same as
the "household utilities" component of the sector
"household operations" in US national accounts for
personal consumption. The procedure in the US is to
measure real consumption of utilities by deflating
money expenditures by appropriate price indexes.
Lack of data precludes this approach for the USSR
However, the Soviets claim that basic utility charges
have not changed in recent decades. The coverage of
the utilities index is essentially complete. The 1970
weights for the three sub-indexes are based on data
given in a Soviet source. Although the sub-indexes are
based on physical series (kilowatt-hours of electricity,
cubic meters of gas, square meters of state urban
public housing stock), they are considered suitable as
measures of real consumption trends. Quality changes
are not important in this sector. The change in the
urban public housing stock was selected to move the
expenditure weight for centralized heat, water and
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sewage disposal because separate physical indicators
are not available and because the bulk of such services
are provided to state-owned housing. Although the
share of housing units provided with such amenities
evidently has been rising, the data are insufficient to
allow for this factor.
Weights. The expenditure weights for the three sub-
indexes� electricity, gas, and other utilities�repre-
sent their respective shares in total household outlays
in 1970 and were derived from a table given in
Ekonomicheskie nauki, no. 11, 1973, p. 44. The
percentage shares are, respectively, 45.1, 9.1 and 45.8.
The share allocated to "other utilities" is the sum of
the source's categories "water pipes and sewer sys-
tems," "heating" and "hot water supply." The latter
two, with over four-fifths of the category weight, are
supplied as joint products.
Index. The index for utilities is a weighted composite
of three separate indexes�electricity, gas, and other
utilities (heat, water, sewage disposal).
Electricity. The index reflects the consumption of
electricity by all households, rural and urban, mea-
sured in kilowatt-hours. Consistent data are available
for only 3 years-1960, 1970 and 1975. Consumption
in 1960 is estimated at 17.358 billion kilowatt-hours
on the basis of the statement that household use of
electricity amounted to 81 kilowatt-hours per person
(Energetika SSSR v 1971-75 godakh, Moscow, 1972,
p. 61) and a mid-year population of 214.3 million.
Consumption in 1970 is given at 41.2 billion kilowatt-
hours (Ibid., p. 63). Consumption in 1975 is given as
56.6 billion kilowatt-hours (Energetika SSSR v 1967-
1980 godakh, Moscow, 1977, p. 47). Total household
consumption is estimated at 9.251 billion kilowatt-
hours in 1950 based on some information with respect
to urban use and rural use. Urban household con-
sumption in 1950 is reported at 9.412 billion kilowatt-
hours (P. S. Neporozhniy (ed.), Elektrifikatsiya
SSSR, Moscow, 1970, p. 522). This figure evidently
includes electricity used for street lighting, which was
estimated at 481 million kilowatt-hours on the basis of
the share of street lighting in 1958 (I. T. Novikov,
Energetika SSSR, Moscow, 1961, p. 377) and the
assumption that the share was the same in 1950.
Total use of electricity by rural households in 1950
was estimated at 320 million kilowatt-hours on the
basis of some information for 1953. Total consump-
tion for all uses by agriculture is reported at 1.538
billion kilowatt-hours in 1950 (Sel'khoz /97/, p. 402).
Consumption for nonproductive uses for 1953 can be
estimated at 27.7 percent of total consumption in
1953 from data in Serkhoz 1960, pp. 428, 432, 436.
This share was assumed to apply to 1950, and the
further assumption was made that household use
accounts for 75 percent of the total. The Soviets
report that 10 percent of collective farm households
(2.050 million) had electricity in 1950 (Serkhoz 1971,
p. 402). Comparable figures are not available for state
farms, but the share probably was higher; they em-
ployed 2.425 million workers in 1950. Since commu-
nal facilities were scarce in rural areas, household use
probably constituted most of the non-productive use
of electricity.
Estimates for all other years were derived by interpo-
lation on the basis of average annual rates of growth.
Household consumption in 1976 and thereafter was
estimated on the assumption that its share of total
production of electricity, regularly reported in Nark-
hoz, was the same as in 1975 (5.45 percent).
Gas. The index measures gas consumed by households
in billion cubic meters. Data on actual consumption
are available for 1966-76 (Ekonornika gazovoy pro-
m_vshlennosti, No. 2, 1978, p. 7) and for 1960 (Gazo-
vaya promyshlennost', No. 4, 1970, p. 55). Consump-
tion in all other years was estimated on the
assumption that the household share ws 3.75 percent
of total production of natural gas in each year. In
1960, the share was 3.97 percent (Ibid.). During 1967-
76, its share fluctuated between 3.49 percent and 4.15
percent; its share was 3.89 percent in 1976. Data on
production of natural gas are given as follows: 1950-
62--Prom, 1964, p. 213; 1963�Narkhoz /969, p.
198; 1970-76 Narkhoz za 60 let, p. 205 and in
similar tables in Narkhozy for subsequent years.
Other Utilities. The measure for this category is an
index of the midyear urban public housing stock
expressed in m2. Mid-year stocks were calculated
from data on end-of-year stocks given as follows:
1950�Narkhoz 1922-1972, p. 367; 1952, 1958-62�
Narkhoz 1962, p. 499; 1963-64 Narkhoz 1964, p.
610; 1965-68 Narkhoz 1968, p. 580; 1969--Nark-
hoz 1969, p. 568; 1970-75�Narkhoz 1975, p. 576;
1976 and following years similar tables in the re-
spective annual Narkhozy. Stocks in 1951 and 1953-
57 were interpolated.
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Transportation. Scope and Coverage. The index of
transportation is a measure of passenger transporta-
tion services in real terms. It is a weighted composite
of physical series for 9 modes of transport�rail, sea,
river, bus, air, tram, trolleybus, subway, and taxi. The
coverage of the index is complete." Both the weights
and the physical series are based on officially pub-
lished data, and little interpolation or estimation was
required. The component indexes use quantitative
indicators, mainly passenger kilometers and number
of passengers. Quality change does not seem to be a
serious problem in this sector although the basic
equipment has been modernized over the years, thus
probably making transportation physically more com-
fortable. However, the degree of crowding likely has
not been much reduced.
In the US, transportation services as a component of
personal consumption in the national accounts are
measured by current expenditures deflated by BLS
price indexes. Annual expenditure data are not avail-
able for the USSR. According to Soviet statements,
fares for the various types of passenger transport have
not been changed for decades, except for air and taxi
fares in the late 1970s.
Weights. The weights used to aggregate the 9 sub-
indexes are average revenue rates per passenger kilo-
meter, per kilometer or per ride. The weights and
their sources are as follows:
Mode
Average Rate Source
(kopecks)
Rail
Sea
0.87 per pass. km.
7.46 per pass.
mile
Transport i svyoz', 1972, p. 111.
Ibid., p. 151.
River
Bus
Air
1.48 per pass. km. Ibid., p. 186.
1.31 per pass. km. Ibid., p. 241.
1.74 per pass. km.
N.N. Belenkiy, Ekonomika
passazhirskik1rperevozok,
1974, p. 241, with a 25 percent
profit markup added.
Tram 3.0 per ride N. B. Chestniy, Tardy na kom-
munarnyye uslugi,1968, p. 19.
Trolleybus 4.0 per ride Ibid.
Subway 5.0 per ride
A. G. Kreykin (ed.), Passazhirs-
kiye tarify na transport SSSR,
1966, p.19
Taxi 11.50 per km. Transport i svyaz', 1972, pp.
247-54.
" Although the index covers all passenger transportation both
private and business�the 1970 expenditure weight excludes esti-
mated business travel outlays. Thus, their share in total outlays is
assumed to remain constant.
Index. The nature and sources of data for the sub-
indexes are summarized below:
Mode Physical Measure Sources
Rail, river, bus,
air
Passenger km
Transport i svyaz', 1972,
p. 19, and similar table in
Narkhozy in subsequent
years.
Sea Passenger miles
Transport i svyaz', 1972,
p. 139 and similar tables in
Narkhozy for subsequent
years.
Tram, trolley- Passengers
bus, subway
Transport i svyaz', 1972,
pp. 256-57 and similar
tables in Narkhozy for
other years.
Taxi Passenger km.
Transport i svyaz',1957,
pp. 256-57; Transport i
svyaz', 1972, pp. 246-47;
similar tables in Narkhozy
for other years.
Communications. Scope and Coverage. Soviet statisti-
cal practice defines the sector to include the postal
services, telephone system, telegraph system, radio
and television broadcasting, and miscellaneous special
services.' The index for the sector is a composite of
four physical output series for the major forms of
communications�postal, telegraph, telephone, and
radio and television; the four series are aggregated
with 1970 average revenue (implicit unit price)
weights. The coverage of the index evidently is quite
complete, only "miscellaneous services" being omit-
ted. The sum of the revenues for the four types
included in the index comprised 98 percent of the
total reported revenue (Transport i svyaz', 1972, p.
302).
The data used for revenue weights and indexes refer
to total activity of the sector, i.e., services rendered to
business firms and government, as well as to private
persons. There are no data by type of customers;
evidence that the household share has been relatively
stable is provided by a comparison of household
expenditures on communications in 1960, 1965, 1970
and 1972 " with the total value of output of communi-
cations in those years." The household percentage
shares are respectively: 38.5, 40.0, 33.3 and 34.2.
" Metodicheskiye ukazaniya, 1974, pp. 755-756.
" I.M. Schneiderman, Statistika uslug, 1974, p. 62.
" Narkhoz 1972, p. 461.
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Weights. The weights for the four sub-indexes and for
the components of the telephone indexes are the
revenues for the various kinds of services provided by
the Ministry of Communications (Transport i svyaz',
1972, p. 302). There are no data with which to obtain
separate value weights for the individual components
of the postal and radio-TV broadcasting sub-indexes.
Index. The nature and sources of data for the four sub-
indexes are shown below:
Sector Nature of Series Sources
Postal
Sum of the number
of letters, newspapers
and magazines, par-
cels, and money or-
ders and pension pay-
ments
Transport i
svyaz', 1972, p.
274 and similar
tables in Nark-
hozy for subse-
quent years
Telegraph Number of telegrams
Ibid.
Telephone
Weighted sum of
number of inter-ur-
ban calls, urban sets,
and rural sets
Transport i
svyaz', 1972, pp.
274, 283, 285 and
similar tables in
Narkhozy for
subsequent years.
Radio-TV broadcast-
ing
Sum of the number
of radios, TV sets,
and wired loudspeak-
ers
Transport i
svyaz', 1972, p.
292 and similar
tables in Nark-
hozy for subse-
quent years.
Repair and Personal Care. Scope and Coverage. As
defined here, the sector encompasses a wide variety of
personal services, the most important of which are:
repair and tailoring of clothing, repair of household
appliances and automobiles; shoe repair; barbershops
and beauty parlors; public baths; and photographic
services. The coverage is nearly identical to that of the
Soviet statistical category Bytovoye obsluzhivaniye
naseleniya ("everyday servicing of the population"),
except that the latter includes housing construction
and repair, which is included in "housing" in the GNP
accounts. In Soviet practice, these services are classi-
fied partly as "productive" and partly as "non-
productive," but statistics for both groups combined
are now reported regularly in the annual handbooks.
The coverage of the sector is described in Metodiches-
kiye ukazaniya, 1974, pp. 774-776.
In US national accounts these services are classified
mainly in "personal services" and "miscellaneous
repair services and hand trades." For the most part, the
indexes used to measure expenditures in real terms are
calculated as the deflated values of outlays in current
prices.
The index for "repair and personal care" is a weighted
composite of separate indexes for state-supplied ser-
vices and for privately supplied services. Both purport
to represent the value of such services in constant 1970
prices. Although the coverage of the combined index is
virtually complete, the underlying data leave much to
be desired. The index for state services is based on
published values reported for some years in current
prices and for other years in various kinds of constant
prices. To complete the time series, use was made of
growth rates for the RSFSR and various assumptions
for years for which no data could be found. The series
for private services relies on survey data relative to the
RSFSR in 1960-1971 and on assumptions about their
growth in other years. The unsatisfactory state of the
data is a result of the fact that state-supplied personal
services were long neglected and that systematic data
are not compiled on privately supplied services. Evalu-
ation of the quality of the resulting index is difficult. It
relies in part on official price deflators of an unknown
character. The index, as a consequence may overstate
the growth of state-supplied services. On the other
hand, the assumptions (and the data) on trends in
private services may understate their growth. Clearly,
the total supply of services has been increasing rapidly
as incomes have risen. The index reflects this expected
result; the degree of accuracy is hard to assess.
Weights. Separate values for state and privately sup-
plied services were derived for the 1970 GNP weights.
The value for state-supplied services was obtained as
shown below: The value of private services is estimat-
ed in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 42, except that housing
repair services are now estimated at 1.071 billion
rubles. (See tabulation on next page.)
Indexes. State-supplied services. The construction of
this sub-index entailed a series of linkages based on
diverse data.
1. The procedure described on the following page to
obtain the value for 1970 was used to obtain similar
values in current prices for 1960 and 1965-1972 and in
comparable prices for 1965 and 1970-76. The values of
sales to enterprises were estimated from the shares
given in Dmitriev, op. cit., p. 98 for 1965, 1970, and
1972. Their share in 1965 was used for all preceding
years. Extrapolation for 1973-76 was made on the
basis of the average annual rates of growth of their
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State-Supplied Services, 1970
Total services
Million
Rubles
4,044.4 a
Less sales to enterprises
307.4 b
Less 95 percent of the housing services sold to
enterprises
375.0 b
Plus 96 percent of the materials used in
tailoring of clothing
1,003.1 c
Plus 96 percent of the materials used in
tailoring of knitwear
115.4 c
Equals consumer purchases of services
Narkhoz 1972, p.621.
b Estimated on the basis of percentage data given for the RSFSR in
V. I. Dmitriev, Metodologicheskiye osnovy prognozirovaniya sprosa
na bytovyye uslugi, 1975, p.98 and ruble values in Narkhoz RSFSR
1972, pp. 401-402.
c Materials are assumed to constitute half of total sales approximate-
ly the ratio for earlier years shown by data in Narkhoz 1968, p. 664
and Narkhoz 1969, p. 660. Enterprise sales are calculated at 4
percent of enterprise purchases of tailoring services, the share that
can be derived from Dmitriev's data.
4,480.7
share during 1966-72, using data on total sales given in
Narkhoz 1972, p. 621 and similar tables in Narhozy
for subsequent years. The share was assumed to
remain unchanged after 1976. The share estimated for
that year (16.9 percent) accords well with a Soviet
statement that the share was almost 18 percent in
1975." Because of a change in the way data were
reported, use of this procedure for years after 1976
necessitated adding materials used in repair of dura-
bles and of housing to the published totals; these were
estimated to be half of the totals, their shares in 1975-
76.
2. These values in current and constant prices are used
to splice together an index in constant prices for 1966- ,
80.
3. The index for 1960-65 is based on constant price
values given in L.A. Bobrov, N.V. Gukov, and K.S.
Gulevich, Ekonomika bytovogo obsluzhivaniya nase-
leniya, 1971, p. 27.
4. Data in current prices for the RSFSR, cited in Ibid.,
p. 24 for 1958-62 were used to obtain an index for
1958-60. For 1956-58 the annual growth rate is based
on constant price data for the RSFSR, given in L.A.
Bobrov, Ekonomicheskiye problemy bytovogo obsluz-
hivaniya naseleniya, 1978, p. 58. An annual growth of
10 percent was assumed for 1950-55, the rate reported
for 1950-54 in Bobrov, et al, 1971, p. 23.
"NV. Gukov, Ekonomika, organizatsiya i planirovaniye mater-
ial'no-tekhnicheskogo snabzheniya predpriyatiy bytovogo obsluzhi-
vaniya, Moscow, 1977, p. 14.
Privately-supplied services. The growth rates of these
services during 1959-1970 are based on data for the
RSFSR given in V.I. Dmitriev, op. cit., p. 45. For
1950-58, the 1959 value was assumed. The level in
1970 was assumed the same in all following years, on
the reasoning that the fast growing supplies of state
services would tend to crowd out private services, given
the generally hostile official attitude toward them,
even though money incomes continued to rise rapidly.
There are no other data on the trend in the supply of
these services.
Recreation. Scope and Coverage. As defined here, the
sector encompasses activities providing entertainment
and recreation services to the population that are
largely paid for out of household incomes. Conceptu-
ally, the sector includes both public and private
purveyors of entertainment and recreational services,
such as movies, theater, ballet, concerts, circuses,
sports, vacation resorts, and lodging facilities. There is
no direct counterpart of this sector in the Soviet
classification of economic activities; rather, the sector
encompasses "art", a component of the category
"culture and art;" "sanitoria and resorts" and "sports
and physical culture organizations," both components
of "health and physical culture"; and "hotels," a
component of "housing-communal economy and ev-
eryday services." (See Metodicheskiye ukazaniya,
1974, pp. 762, 764, 767.) The categories in US
national accounts that would be encompassed in
"Recreation" are: motion pictures, amusements and
recreational services n.e.c., and hotels and other lodg-
ing places.
The index used to measure the activity of the sector is
a weighted aggregate of three sub-indexes: "entertain-
ment," "resorts" and "leisure." The first reflects the
activities of movies, theaters, sports, and other enter-
tainment enterprises. The second represents the ac-
tivities of vacation resorts, which are publicly operat-
ed and heavily subsidized in the USSR. The third is
intended to represent recreation in the form of travel,
not yet common in the USSR. Available data do not
permit satisfactory measurement of these diverse ac-
tivities. Neither expenditure data nor price deflators
are available for developing the deflated expenditure
series that are employed to measure comparable
activities in US national accounts. As a substitute,
several physical series were selected to represent the
various types of activities and aggregated with 1970
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expenditure weights. Despite reservations concerning
both the sub-indexes and weights, the composite index
probably reflects real outlays on recreation reasonably
well. Its relatively slow growth is consistent with the
traditional reluctance of the Soviet government to
invest in the provision of recreational facilities and
with the impact of rapidly growing availability of
television on attendance at movies and similar
activities.
Weights. The derivation of the 1970 expenditure
weights for the three sub-indexes is explained in CIA,
GNP 1970, p. 42.
Indexes. Entertainment. The index is based on the
sum of the numbers of paid admissions to movies and
admissions to theaters. These are the only series of
data on entertainment that are regularly published.
The data are to be found in two tables regularly
published in annual handbooks, e.g., Narkhoz 1972,
p. 669.
Vacation resorts. The index is based on the number of
persons staying at "sanatoria, resort polyclinics, rest
homes and pensions" in each year; the series excludes
visitors to "rest bases" and "tourist bases," which are
essentially campgrounds and shelters. There are no
other data available to reflect such forms of recrea-
-tion. Data for 1950, 1958, 1960-80 are given in tables
regularly published in Narkhozy, e.g. Narkhoz 1972,
p. 569. Growth rates for other years are interpolated.
Leisure. The index is based on manhour employment
in hotels. There are no other data available on this
form of travel and recreation, which is greatly under-
developed in the Soviet Union. Employment in hotels
was estimated for 1950-69 in Stephen Rapawy, Com-
parison of US and USSR Civilian Employment in
Government, 1950-1969, US Bureau of the Census,
International Population Reports, P-95, No. 69, April
1972, p. 17. Estimates for subsequent years are based
on the assumption that employment in hotels in-
creased at the same rate as employment in the
housing-communal economy, regularly reported in
Narkhoz, e.g., Narkhoz 1977, p. 378. The annual
number of manhours worked in hotels is assumed to
be the same as that in housing-communal economy.
Manhours for 1950-74 are estimated in Stephen
Rapawy, Estimates and Projections of Civilian Em-
ployment in the USSR, 1950-1990, US Bureau of the
Census, Foreign Economic Report No. 10, September
1976, p. 60, and extended to 1980 by him.
Communal Services
The index of communal services is a weighted aggre-
gate of separate indexes for education and for health.
The coverage of these services, nearly all state-pro-
vided, is virtually complete. The 1970 weights used to
combine the indexes are total current expenditures on
these services by the population and by the govern-
ment. The data underlying the two sub-indexes are
shown in Appendix F.
Education. Scope and Coverage. The definition of the
sector follows Soviet statistical practice and includes
(1) kindergartens and all types of general education
schools concerned with the education and rearing of
children, (2) trade schools (vocational-technical
schools), and (3) higher and secondary specialized
educational institutions of all kinds (Metodicheskiye
ukazaniya, 1974, pp. 755-56). The coverage coincides,
mostly, with "private education and research," a
component of personal consumption expenditures in
the US national accounts, plus government expendi-
tures on education. Expenditures on nursery schools
and on public libraries in the US are included in
education; in the USSR, the former are included in
"health" and the latter in "culture."
The index of education services is a weighted compos-
ite of two sub-indexes personnel services and other
current purchases, mainly food, utilities and supplies.
The index for personnel is a measure of manhour
employment and is used to move wage expenditures in
1970. The result is equivalent to the procedure used
by Bergson and Becker and also to that in the US,
where total wage expenditures are deflated by an
index of average wages. The index for other expendi-
tures is a deflated value series, as are similar indexes
constructed by Bergson for the USSR for 1928-55
and by the Department of Commerce for the US.
Use of manhours as a measure of personnel services
makes no allowance either for productivity change or
for improvement in the quality of education in general
that may have resulted from changing skill mixes and
an upgrading of the level of qualification of teaching
staffs. Because a suitable measure of productivity in
education has yet to be devised and agreed upon, the
practice in the US and elsewhere is to measure
education services in real terms on the basis of inputs,
as is done here for the USSR. In its measure, the US
does make some allowance for changes in the quality
, of labor inputs (skill mixes). The data required for an
- adjustment for rising qualifications and changes in
skill mixes are not available for the USSR.
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Weights. The weights used to combine the sub-
indexes for personnel services and other current ex-
penditures are their respective shares in 1970 of total
expenditures on education, excluding investment and
student stipends. Their derivation, revised from that
used in CIA, GNP 1970, is explained in Appendix D
of JEC, GNP, 1950-80.
Indexes. Personnel services. The index of total man-
hours worked in education was obtained as follows:
a. Estimates of manhour employment in "education
and culture" combined during 1950-74 are presented
and the derivation described by Stephen Rapawy,
Foreign Economic Report No. 10 (loc. cit.), pp. 50-51
and extended to 1980 by him.
b. Estimates of total manhours worked in education
alone were obtained by subtracting estimated man-
hours in culture from manhours in education and
culture combined. Estimates of manhours in culture
were obtained by multiplying employment in culture
in each year by the number of manhours worked per
person.
c. Average annual employment in culture is given for
1940, 1965, 1970-75 in Narkhoz 1975, p. 533, for
1966 in Trud v SSSR, 1968, p. 27 and for 1976-80 in
Narkhoz 1980, p. 358. Employment in culture in
1965 and 1966 was 8.4 percent of total employment in
education and culture; its share was about the same in
1940. Accordingly, employment in culture in 1950-64
was calculated by assuming that its share was 8.4
percent in each year. Estimates for 1967-69 were
interpolated. Employment in education is obtained by
subtraction for those years in which it is not reported
directly.
d. Average annual man-hours worked in culture are
estimated by a procedure similar to that used by
Rapawy (loc. cit). The procedure assumes that hours
worked annually per person employed in culture
follows the trend derived for industry. The level of
annual manhours in culture was calculated by apply-
ing to the level for industry in each year the ratio of
the scheduled workweek in culture (38.6) to that in
industry (40.7), as reported in Vest stat, No. 4, 1978,
pp. 94-95.
Other current purchases. The index is based on esti-
mates of these purchases in current prices, deflated by
a price index.
(a) Other current purchases in current prices
Total purchases in each year are based on estimates
made separately for kindergartens, general education
schools (including children's homes and boarding
schools), higher education (vuzy),and secondary spe-
cialized educational institutions (tekhnikums). Expen-
ditures for these types of schools make up over 80
percent of total outlays on education. Data for other
schools (mainly trade schools, correspondence schools
and the like) are not available.
The procedure used to estimate other current pur-
chases for each type of school was as follows: (1) using
the distribution of expenditures in the budget of the
union-republics, investment expenditures were first
deducted from total expenditures to obtain a series for
total non-investment outlays. From this value for each
year was then deducted the sum of wages and social
insurance, stipends, capital repair, and purchases of
equipment. The result is a series of values for other
current purchases financed from the budgets of the
republics.
(2) The values obtained in step (1) were expressed as
percentages of total non-investment outlays from re-
public budgets. To obtain the values for other current
purchases for the USSR as a whole, these percentage
shares were multiplied by total non-investment out-
lays reported pr calculated for the USSR The proce-
dure assumes that the distribution of expenditures for
each type of school in the total state budget is the
same as that in the sum of republic budgets. The
latter accounted for roughly 85 percent of the total in
1975. The distributions of expenditures in both types
of budgets were similar in 1950-57, the only years
when distributions pertaining to the total budget for
the USSR are available.
(3) Distribution of expenditures from union-republics
budgets by type of school, as well as total expendi-
tures for the USSR, are available for the years 1950-
57 and 1960-75 in the following sources: Raskhody po
sotsiarno-kulturnyye meropriyatiya po gosudarst-
vennomu byudzhetu SSSR, Moscow, 1958, (hereafter.
referred to as Raskhody), pp. 11, 12, 38, 49-58, 95,
97. Gosbyudzhet 1966, pp. 23-24, 79, 82, 85-87, 89.
Gosbyudzhet 1972, pp. 27-28, 85, 87, 91-94. Gos-
byudzhet 1976, pp. 25-26, 82, 85, 88-91.
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In making the calculations, allowance was made for a
change in classification in the 1960s. Parental fees
were added to total budget expenditures for
kindergartens.
(4) For the years 1976-80, data on total non-invest-
ment expenditures by major kind of school are given
in Narkhoz 1980, p. 525. The percentage shares
obtained for 1975 in step (1) were used to calculate
values of total current purchases for those years.
(b) Price index
Other current purchases by educational institutions
encompass a wide variety of items. The largest cate-
gory is food (estimated from budget data at 47 percent
of the total in 1970). Other sizeable items are services
and miscellaneous outlays (25 percent), bedding and
uniforms (9 percent), and numerous items related to
utilities, office supplies, and housekeeping expenses
(15 percent). No satisfactory price index exists or can
be devised to deflate this mix of expenditures. Official
industrial wholesale price indexes are too highly ag-
gregated for categories other than food, and in any
event are of dubious reliability, as are also the official
indexes of retail prices.' In the belief that some
deflation procedure, however crude, is preferable to
none, it was decided to adopt a deflator that is implicit
when the CIA index of household consumption of
purchased goods in constant prices is compared with
an index of retail sales of such goods in current prices
that can be calculated from official Soviet data. The
justification for employing this "alternative" index is
as follows: (1) the need for some kind of deflation is
recognized; (2) the implicit index is largely indepen-
dent of official price indexes; (3) from a comparison of
data in Vest stat, No. 5, 1971, pp. 34, 36 with
expenditure data in Gosbyudzhet 1972, p. 94 it is
evident that schools, primarily kindergartens, pur-
chase nearly all their food in retail outlets, as well as
about one-third of all other material purchases.4'
The implicit index�shown in Appendix F�declines
by 13 percent during 1951-55 and riseNS by 40 percent
during 1956-80; in contrast the implicit official price
index (state and collective farm market prices com-
bined) declines by 25 percent during 1951-55 and
'" On this point, see Morris Bornstein in Treml and Hardt, 1972, pp.
355-395.
'' Separation of expenditures between material purchases and
services follows the approach used in M. R. Eidel'man Afezhotras-
remains virtually unchanged thereafter. The interpre-
tation and limitations of the "alternative" price index
are discussed in JEC 1976, pp. 631, 651. A revised
version of the index, along with a description of
sources and methodology, is given in JEC, 1979, p.
766. Despite its limitations, the "alternative" index is
believed to reflect price changes far more accurately
than the official index. Moreover, even the "alterna-
tive" index may be biased downward, because the
CIA index itself incorporates several sub-indexes
based on the value of retail sales in constant prices as
measured by official price indexes. The sub-index for
"durables and miscellaneous goods" is the most con-
spicuous example.
Health. Scope and Coverage. The sector is defined in
Soviet statistical practice to include all activities
concerned with public health�hospitals, clinics, sana-
toria, vacation resorts, homes for the aged and dis-
abled, and organizations concerned with social securi-
ty and physical culture. In constructing the index of
health services, expenditures on vacation resorts and
sports activities are removed. The definition, then,
corresponds, in the main, to the component "medical
care and expenses" in the US national accounts for
personal consumption expenditures plus government
expenditures on health and hospitals and on medical
vendor payments.
The index for health services is a weighted average of
sub-indexes for "personnel services" and for "other
current purchases"�mainly food, medical supplies,
utilities, and housekeeping and office expenses. The
underlying data are given in Appendix F. The nature
of the index is the same as that for "education",
described above. The discussion there of the limita-
tions of such an index applies also to the index for
health. In constructing the weights for the index,
expenditures on physical culture and vacation resorts
were deducted; they are included in the sector "re-
creation." Lack of detailed data prevented the re-
moval of workers in physical culture from the employ-
ment data underlying the indexes. However, their
share in total employment is small (5.2 percent in
1966): they are not included in the published outlays
for "health," and therefore are omitted from the
index of other current purchases.
Weights. The sub-indexes are weighted by estimated
expenditures in 1970 on personnel services and on
materials and the like. The weights, revised from
those used in CIA, GNP 1970, are described in
levoy balans obshchestvennogo produkta, Moscow, 1966, P. 165. , Appendix D of JEC, GNP, 1950-80.
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Indexes. Personnel services. The index for personnel
services is based on total manhours worked in "health
and physical culture." The manhour series for 1950-
1976 is presented and described in Stephen Rapawy,
Foreign Economic Report No. 10, /oc. cit., p. 60, and
extended to 1980 by him. It was not possible to
remove manhours worked in sports organizations and
vacation resorts from the series. There are no data
with which to adjust the series either for changes in
the educational quality of the labor force or for
changes in the skill mix. However, the number of
"middle medical personnel"�nurses, feldshers, medi-
cal technicians and the like�has increased faster
since 1950 then has the number of doctors. Average
life expectancy at birth in the USSR did not change
between 1960-61 and 1971-72, when the publication
of such data was halted. Life expectancy probably has
declined since then, because infant mortality rates
and death rates for adult males have been rising since
1969."
Other current purchases. The index of other current
purchases is obtained by a procedure similar to that
used for education. The derivation is as follows:
(a) Other current purchases in current prices
(1) Data on total non-investment outlays for health
financed from union republic budgets are available
for 1950-57 and 1960-75, with a distribution by type
of expenditure. To obtain "other current purchases"
in each year, the sum of outlays on wages and social
insurance, equipment, and capital repair was deduct-
ed from total non-investment outlays, and fees paid by
parents were added. The values for "other current
purchases" so obtained are then expressed as percent-
ages of total non-investment outlays.
(2) Almost four-fifths of total expenditures on health
is financed from republic budgets. To obtain values
for "other current purchases" for the USSR as a
whole the percentages derived in step (1) were multi-
plied by the values for total non-investment outlays
financed from the state budget (union and republic
budgets). This step assumes that the distribution of
expenditures by object is the same in both types of
budgets. The distributions were quite similar in 1950-
57, the only years when such data for both budgets
are available.
" Christopher Davis and Murray Feshbach, op. cit., pp. 1-8.
(3) The data for steps (1) and (2) are found in the
following sources for 1950-75: Raskhody, pp. 71-72,
76. Gosbyudzhet 1966, pp. 57, 90, 94. Gosbyudzhet
1972, pp. 62, 95, 99. Gosbyudzhet 1976, pp. 60, 92,
96.
For years after 1975, data on total non-investment
outlays for health financed from the state budget are
given in the annual statistical handbooks, e.g., Nark-
hoz 1978, p. 536. The percentage share of "other
current purchases" in the total was assumed to remain
at the 1975 level: the share changed little in 1966-75.
A small amount of current expenditures for health
care is known to be financed from sources other than
the state budget (funds of enterprises and trade
unions, mainly). There are no data with which to take
such expenditures into account in constructing the
indexes.
(b) Price index
"Other current purchases" by institutions classified in
the health sector encompass a wide variety of items.
The most important one is food, which in the expendi-
tures in republic budgets made up an estimated 32
percent of the total in 1970; the remainder consisted
of medicines (26 percent), bedding and uniforms (8
percent), services and miscellaneous outlays (22 per-
cent), and a variety of items related to office and
housekeeping expenses (12 percent). The price index
used to deflate this mix of expenditures is the same as
that used to deflate a similar group of outlays of
educational institutions. The considerations leading to
this choice are similar to those set forth above in the
discussion of the price deflator for other current
outlays in education. Like schools and kindergartens,
hospitals, rest homes, and children's nurseries pur-
chase a substantial part of their supplies at retail
outlets, particularly food. According to data in Vest
stat, No. 5, 1971, pp. 34, 36, compared with data in
Gosbyudzhet 1972, pp. 95, 99, these organizations
purchased nearly all of their food from retail outlets
and a significant share of other purchases..
The description and sources for the price deflator are
given above in the discussion of the index for
education.
352
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Appendix A
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
(.�..)
cm
L..)
Table A-1
Indexes of Total Consumption in Established Prices,
by Category, 1950-80, and 1970 Category Weights a
1950
1970 = 100
1970
Weights
(Billion
Rubles)
1970
Sub-index
Weights
(Percent)
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Consumption
211.083
33.8
34.6
37.1
40.2
43.0
45.9
48.2
51.8
55.4
57.7
Goods
166.478
33.1
33.7
36.5
40.0
42.9
45.8
48.4
52.4
56.2
58.3
Food
107.926
100.0
39.5
39.0
42.3
45.9
47.5
50.9
53.1
57.4
61.3
62.9
Animal products
42.310
38.9
39.6
40.6
42.9
45.0
46.4
50.3
55.3
62.7
65.5
Fish
3.0
33.7
39.9
39.3
40.7
45.6
49.3
50.7
52.2
54.2
55.2
Meat
19.8
40.2
39.4
41.4
44.7
46.9
47.1
51.4
55.8
63.9
68.6
Milk
8.9
46.6
46.1
44.5
44.3
45.3
45.2
48.9
56.1
66.5
65.4
Butter
1.2
17.4
15.0
17.1
18.6
39.5
46.7
52.9
57.6
64.4
66.1
Cheese
0.7
15.3
17.7
19.0
21.4
23.2
27.6
30.8
32.4
35.4
36.8
Eggs
3.6
28.0
32.2
35.1
39.5
42.4
45.9
48.6
55.8
57.9
62.3
Processed foods
13.857
26.0
34.4
38.2
45.9
37.6
46.5
50.7
52.4
54.9
57.5
Sugar
5.1
19.2
32.3
34.5
4,5.5
45.1
45.3
48.6
51.1
51.9
54.4
Vegetable oil
1.0
29.5
35.4
39.1
48.4
55.1
46.3
50.8
54.2
58.9
63.7
Margarine
0.6
25.9
30.1
37.0
45.2
52.4
53.3
54.6
57.7
56.8
57.5
Confectioneries
5.6
31.3
36.7
40.9
45.0
46.6
44.6
51.0
51.0
54.5
57.7
Macaroni
0.5
28.9
33.8
44.4
55.5
65.4
69.8
63.7
71.6
77.0
73.8
Basic foods
22.890
72.4
60.4
68.6
72.6
76.4
79.6
78.2
82.8
83.4
84.1
Potatoes
4.0
137.5
62.1
89.8
97.9
102.1
92.0
93.6
95.9
98.3
100.0
Vegetables
3.2
46.1
43.8
48.1
55.5
58.0
68.0
65.2
67.4
73.7
70.8
Fruit
4.1
23.3
25.1
27.0
28.8
33.5
38.4
32.4
55.5
54.0
55.6
Flour and groats
9.9
75.2
79.6
84.0
86.0
89.8
95.4
95.1
93.9
92.7
93.7
Beverages and tobacco
28.869
20.8
23.3
26.0
29.2
32.9
36.9
38.5
42.6
44.8
44.7
Alcohol and soft drinks
23.4
19.6
22.2
25.0
28.2
31.8
35.9
37.6
42.1
44.2
43.8
Tea
0.6
29.1
32.7
34.2
39.1
40.6
46.7
39.6
45.6
40.6
49.8
49.8
Tobacco
2.7
29.3
31.1
32.9
35.8
40.2
43.2
47.5
49.3
51.2
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Table A-1 (continued)
1970 = 100
1970
Weights
(Billion
Rubles)
1970
Sub-index
Weights
(Percent)
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Soft goods
44.294
100.0
24.5
27.7
29.3
32.5
37.8
39.8
43.2
46.1
49.6
52.7
Cotton fabrics
3.3
91.7
95.5
99.4
120.0
144.9
134.8
135.6
123.2
117.4
124.7
Wool fabrics
2.4
56.2
50.0
44.5
53.6
64.6
49.9
66.1
84.0
91.6
92.5
Silk fabrics
2.7
19.7
24.1
29.4
40.2
55.0
56.3
69.0
86.0
88.6
85.0
Linen fabrics
0.6
32.4
30.4
28.6
26.8
28.7
30.7
41.7
54.2
60.6
61.9
Sewn goods
33.5 ,
19.5
22.2
24.9
27.8
33.1
36.6
40.3
40.7
44.5
49.2
Hosiery
4.1
35.3
44.7
43.7
45.7
50.4
57.7
60.0
63.1
66.3
69.2
Leather shoes
15.2
29.0
35.0
33.9
33.2 .
35.6
37.8
41.4
46.1
51.8
55.6
Rubber footwear
2.1
64.0
67.0
70.1
73.3
76.6
80.1
83.8
87.1
92.0
96.8
Felt footwear
0.5
70.4
72.0
73.3
74.8
75.8
77.0
76.1
83.0
89.9
97.8
Knitwear �
16.7 .
14.1
18.1
20.4
22.7
26.5
28.9
29.0
31.0
33.1
33.2
Haberdashery
8.7
13.9
15.2
16.5
19.7
23.6
25.9
28.8
34.8
38.4
41.4
School supplies
2.0
13.5
15.1
17.0
20.1
23.9
24.7
27.6
30.3
32.7
35.3
Publications
3.9
19.3
20.2
21.2
23.1
25.1
28.4
31.9
35.4
39.1
43.6
Household soap
1.6
23.1
25.7
27.4
30.6
37.8
36.5
40.3
42.5
45.2
45.6
Toilet soap
2.7
13.4
15.0
16.7
21.7
28.2
31.3
32.7
37.8
40.6
43.1
Durables
14.258
10.8
12.6
14.4
18.8
24.1
26.3
28.8
34.8
38.3
41.8
Consumer services
44.605
36.6
37.8
39.3
41.0
43.4
46.1
47.6
49.5
52.3
55.5
Household services
21.612
31.6
33.0
34.5
36.0
38.1
40.8
42.1
44.1
47.3
51.5
Housing
3.429
100.0
48.1
49.4
50.7
52.1
53.6
55.4
57.3
59.8
63.0
66.7
Urban housing
54.9
33.6
35.0
36.4
38.4
40.9
43.5
46.1
49.2
53.2
57.6
Rural housing
45.1
65.8
67.0
68.2
68.8
69.2
69.8
71.0
72.8
74.9
77.8
Utilities
3.478
100.0
25.1
26.6
28.4
30.0
31.6
33.4
35.3
37.1
39.9
42.9
Electricity
45.1
22.5
24.5
26.9
29.0
30.9
33.2
35.4
36.6
38.7
40.9
Gas
9.1
22.9
23.2
23.2
33.5
33.8
34.6
36.1
39.4
14.2
17.9
Other utilities
45.8
32.0
33.3
34.8
36.3
37.8
39.3
40.9
43.1
46.1
49.9
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Transportation
5.400
100.0
13.6
15.1
16.6
18.6
20.8
24.0
25.7
29.4
32.8
36.0
Rail
19.8
33.2
37.1
40.5
44.6
48.6
53.3
53.7
57.8
59.7
61.9
Sea
1.1
78.1
79.0
78.2
93.1
91.2
92.9
87.1
88.9
86.0
88.0
River
1.4
49.7
53.4
55.3
60.8
64.5
65.7
63.7
70.0
73.4
76.2
Bus
45.7
2.6
3.2
4.1
5.2
7.0
10.3
13.0
16.6
21.0
25.1
Air
11.7
1.5
1.9
2.2
2.7
3.1
3.6
4.0
5.8
8.2
11.6
Tram
4.1
64.8
67.6
70.5
73.5
76.7
80.0
80.6
85.6
90.4
93.6
Trolleybus
4.2
15.4
17.6
20.1
23.0
26.4
30.3
34.0
39.1
43.6
45.8
Subway
2.0
27.4
29.7
32.2
34.9
37.7
40.8
43.4
44.2
46.5
47.6
Taxi
10.0
2.7
3.5
4.7
5.4
7.1
10.1
12.4
16.4
19.3
21.4
Communications
1.200
100.0
22.4
24.5
26.7
28.4
30.8
33.1
35.6
38.4
40.6
43.2
Postal
40.7
20.7
23.4
25.9
27.3
29.8
32.0
34.9
37.1
39.2
41.9
Telegraph
9.8
42.2
45.8
49.6
53.5
55.1
55.7
56.6
62.3
61.2
63.2
Telephone
36.8
23.2
24.4
26.1
27.2
28.8
30.8
32.5
34.5
37.0
39.0
Radio-TV
12.7
10.3
12.0
13.6
16.5
20.8
25.7
30.7
35.2
39.6
44.3
Repair and personal care
5.497
100.0
42.1
42.9
43.7
44.6
45.6
46.6
45.4
45.0
48.0
55.3
State services
83.1
8.9
9.8
10.8
11.8
13.0
14.3
12.9
12.4
16.0
24.8
Private services
16.9
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
Recreation
2.608
100.0
37.6
39.9
42.4
44.4
49.6
57.6
60.8
63.6
68.5
70.3
Entertainment
58.8
25.4
30.0
34.3
35.6
42.9
54.2
60.9
66.0
73.0
75.6
Resorts
17.6
36.9
38.3
40.5
42.4
44.4
48.0
47.9
49.2
54.9
57.0
Leisure
23.8
68.7
65.9
64.4
68.2
70.6
74.3
71.3
69.6
69.1
68.4
Goods and household services
188.090
32.9
33.6
36.2
39.6
42.3
45.3
47.7
51.5
55.3
57.6
Communal services
22.993
41.4
42.3
43.8
45.6
48.3
51.1
52.8
54.7
56.9
59.3
Education
14.380
100.0
42.8
43.8
45.1
46.3
48.3
50.3
51.8
53.1
54.7
56.4
Labor
71.3
47.2
48.8
50.4
51.7
54.0
56.2
57.0
58.1
59.5
60.8
Other current purchases
28.7
31.7
31.3
32.0
32.9
33.9
35.6
38.8
40.6
42.6
45.3
Health
8.613
100.0
39.0
39.8
41.7
44.5
48.5
52.5
54.5
57.4
60.6
64.1
Labor
63.1
44.0
45.8
47.6
49.3
52.7
56.0
57.6
60.2
63.4
66.4
Other current purchases
36.9
30.5
29.5
31.5
36.2
41.2
46.3
49.2
52.7
55.7
60.2
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Jl
Table A-1 (continued)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1970 = 100
1969
Consumption
60.9
62.7
65.5
68.2
69.8
74.0
78.6
83.8
89.5
95.0
Goods
61.6
63.2
65.8
68.3
69.2
73.2
77.8
83.3
89.2
94.9
Food
65.5
67.0
69.8
73.5
73.5
77.2
80.8
85.8
90.9
96.3
Animal products
69.1
69.7
71.1
78.3
71.6
75.4
81.2
86.4
92.3
97.2
Fish
56.7
58.8
62.5
67.7
74.4
77.8
80.6
83.3
91.1
101.7
Meat
73.6
72.9
75.4
84.2
74.4
81.2
88.2
93.1
98.1
97.0
Milk
67.2
70.7
70.8
79.7
66.0
61.5
67.8
75.4
82.6
98.3
Butter
69.0
70.8
70.2
71.0
75.7
79.5
78.9
82.2
90.5
98.4
Cheese
40.6
42.7
47.5
48.3
57.5
64.9
73.6
76.2
81.6
90.2
Eggs
65.5
62.5
61.2
63.8
66.8
74.2
79.8
84.4
88.9
92.2
Processed foods
61.8
64.7
68.9
71.7
78.4
81.9
82.8
87.6
91.3
96.1
Sugar
64.6
68.3
71.4
76.3
77.6
84.8
90.0
94.4
96.2
96.8
Vegetable oil
68.8
74.0
79.2
84.5
91.2
99.3
89.1
92.9
93.8
96.2
Margarine
65.2
65.2
67.0
75.7
85.7
78.4
78.8
81.5
87.0
96.4
Confectioneries
56.0
58.2
63.2
65.8
74.5
75.7
75.0
80.7
86.9
95.0
Macaroni
80.8
80.7
87.8
63.0
94.5
91.3
90.8
93.6
91.5
100.0
Basic foods
84.1
84.9
86.8
84.7
88.3
90.8
90.5
93.2
96.4
95.2
Potatoes
97.1
98.8
99.7
100.6
101.2
103.9
99.9
97.9
98.9
99.9
Vegetables
75.3
73.4
74.6
71.2
84.8
83.5
85.6
94.8
94.6
91.8
Fruit
55.5
56.2
62.2
65.1
68.0
76.1
74.1
81.8
92.9
85.2
Flour and groats
93.6
94.8
95.7
90.9
92.6
94.1
95.1
95.4
97.4
98.7
Beverages and tobacco
47.0
49.9
55.0
58.6
62.1
66.6
71.6
78.2
84.4
95.8
Alcohol and soft drinks
46.1
49.2
54.7
58.3
61.7
66.4
71.4
78.1
84.3
96.1
Tea
53.5
54.4
62.7
69.5
71.7
66.9
76.7
80.7
80.6
91.0
Tobacco
53.7
55.2
56.2
59.1
63.5
68.7
72.6
79.1
86.2
94.5
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
--.1
73.4
Soft goods
57.0
58.9
60.9
61.2
63.1
67.4
79.9
86.9
93.5
Cotton fabrics
126.2
112.9
107.9
103.4
1(11.3
99.8
105.0
109.4
108.9
107.7
Wool fabrics
109.3
101.5
92.5
84.1
83.2
96.4
97.2
97.8
103.3
104.3
Silk fabrics
87.9
84.3
89.6
89.2
85.0
96.2
103.9
106.8
101.8
98.0
Linen fabrics
66.9
64.0
57.1
55.1
55.6
69.7
82.4
88.1
97.6
101.4
Sewn goods
53.0
56.6
58.7
57.5
56.2
56.1
61.6
70.6
81.3
90.6
Hosiery
72.0
74.8
77.2
83.8
92.4
100.9
107.9
111.0
109.6
104.3
Leather shoes
59.6
63.4
66.9
66.6
69.2
74.1
79.4
84.4
89.9
93.7
Rubber footwear
96.1
94.6
90.9
92.3
95.2
93.1
94.9
97.2
97.5
97.0
Felt footwear
99.1
105.0
106.3
107.9
107.9
104.7
102.5
101.3
101.9
100.0
Knitwear
38.7
40.4
42.9
45.7
52.8
61.4
69.1
76.0
83.7
92.6
Haberdashery
46.6
49.9
54.0
54.8
56.6
62.7
68.7
73.8
81.6
90.3
School supplies
38.5
40.0
41.6
43.7
49.5
54.3
60.2
66.2
75.9
87.7
Publications
46.3
48.4
50.8
54.5
57.7
65.7
73.0
80.0
84.4
94.5
Household soap
50.3
52.4
54.1
60.3
61.8
69.4
76.0
85.8
93.4
96.0
Toilet soap
46.0
48.2
51.7
52.1
56.3
60.9
67.4
74.9
82.3
90.8
Durables
47.3
48.1
50.5
50.4
55.4
61.6
68.9
74.8
83.0
89.5
Consumer services
58.3
60.8
64.2
67.9
72.3
77.0
81.5
85.9
90.9
95.2
Household services
53.7
55.5
58.6
61.9
66.6
71.8
77.0
82.9
89.0
94.2
Housing
70.6
74.1
77.4
80.5
83.3
86.0
88.8
91.6
94.5
97.3
Urban housing
61.8
65.9
69.7
73.5
77.1
.80.7
84.3
88.1
92.1
96.0
Rural housing
81.3
84.2
86.7
88.9
90.8
92.5
94.2
96.0
97.5
98.8
Utilities
45.9
50.4
55.5
60.9
66.5
72.1
77.1
81.9
87.7
93.9
Electricity
42.1
46.9
52.6
58.3
64.5
70.7
75.5
80.9
87.4
93.6
Gas
24.3
29.9
37.3
45.5
55.0
64.7
72.4
74.3
81.1
91.9
Other utilities
53.9
58.0
62.1
66.4
70.7
75.0
79.6
84.4
89.4
94.6
Transportation
40.1
44.0
49.7
54.8
59.3
64.8
72.0
79.1
86.6
93.0
Rail
64.4
66.4
71.3
72.3
73.5
76.0
82.7
88.3
95.7
98.5
Sea
83.7
85.8
83.5
91.0
83.7
92.7
103.3
104.4
110.8
109.7
River
79.1
81.5
85.3
87.0
86.0
90.8
95.0
98.1
100.8
101.7
Bus
30.1
34.2
40.6
47.0
53.2
59.5
67.6
75.6
83.2
90.4
Air
15.5
21.0
26.0
32.4
39.5
48.7
57.7
68.4
79.4
91.4
Tram
98.5
97.7
99.7
101.8
103.3
103.5
102.9
102.1
100.1
98.4
Trolleybus
49.9
51.3
54.8
59.4
64.5
70.2
77.0
82.3
87.1
92.9
Subway
50.0
53.7
56.7
62.8
68.4
72.0
79.4
84.9
90.3
94.8
Taxi
26.5
34.2
43.2
50.6
53.5
59.1
64.4
71.6
81.3
90.8
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Table A-1 (continued)
1960
1961
1962
1970 = 100
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Communications
46.5
49.2
52.3
55.3
59.3
65.4
72.3
79.8
85.5
93.0
Postal
45.1
47.7
50.6
54.9
60.8
67.6
75.6
84.0
88.4
94.7
Telegraph
66.1
67.2
69.2
69.8
70.6
74.9
82.2
88.5
92.9
97.9
Telephone
41.9
44.7
47.9
49.9
52.6
59.2
65.4
72.7
79.9
89.7
Radio-TV
48.9
53.3
57.3
61.3
64.9
69.1
74.0
79.8
86.6
93.3
Repair and personal care
53.8
50.1
49.9
51.5
56.5
63.5
70.3
77.7
85.4
91.7
State services
27.5
30.3
33.4
36.9
43.8
53.2
60.6
69.9
, 79.5
90.5
Private services
180.4
146.0
129.7
121.6
118.0
113.0
117.2
115.3
113.8
97.6
Recreation
73.0
75.9
77.8
78.2
84.4
87.7
88.2
93.6
97.6
98.6
Entertainment
77.7
82.8
84.5
83.5
88.7
92.0
90.2
96.6
101.1
100.1
Resorts
61.0
60.7
64.0
65.2
77.7
82.0
86.3
89.7
92.9
97.0
Leisure
71.5
71.6
72.7
75.8
79.5
82.1
84.7
89.3
92.7
96.2
Goods and household services
60.7
62.3
65.0
67.5
68.9
73.1
77.7
83.3
89.2
94.9
Communal services
62.6
65.8
69.4
73.5
77.7
81.9
85.6
88.7
92.7
96.2
Education
59.3
62.9
68.0
72.8
77.8
82.3
86.3
89.6
93.8
97.4
Labor
62.5
65.3
69.9
73.7
78.7
83.3
87.3
90.4
94.2
97.1
Other current purchases
51.2
56.9
63.4
70.4
75.6
79.9
83.8
87.8
92.7
98.0
Health
68.0
70.5
71.7
74.8
77.6
81.3
84.5
87.0
90.8
94.3
Labor
69.4
72.2
75.0
77.2
80.3
83.8
86.9
89.4
93.4
97.1
Other current purchases
65.6
67.6
66.1
70.8
73.1
77.0
80.4
83.0
86.3
89.6
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1970 .
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Consumption
100.0
103.9
106.5
110.6
115.5
120.7
124.0
127.9
132.1
136.4
Goods
100.0
103.9
106.2
110.3
115.2
120.4
123.5
127.6
131.5
135.7
Food
100.0
102.2
102.3
105.7
110.0
113.6
114.5
117.0
120.3
123.2
Animal products
100.0
102.1
103.9
109.3
113.5
118.3
118.2
119.7
122.0
125.2
Fish
100.0
97.0
99.9
107.6
111.2
114.3
126.4
118.4
119.5
115.5
Meat
100.0
105.2
108.3
113.6
119.0
124.5
123.4
124.5
127.8
131.1
Milk
100.0
95.9
91.4
88.7
93.5
97.9
96.3
92.2
92.5
97.5
Butter
100.0
97.2
98.5
121.1
113.4
113.6
113.2
130.7
125.3
131.3
Cheese
100.0
96.9
101.0
112.1
118.2
117.6
128.2
137.0
144.6
146.7
Eggs
100.0
110.5
118.6
126.2
133.9
142.4
139.0
148.9
157.0
159.0
Processed foods
100.0
102.3
103.9
110.3
113.5
114.2
119.2
123.6
127.9
130.4
Sugar
100.0
103.5
101.9
108.1
108.9
110.1
113.5
115.2
116.5
117.1
Vegetable oil
100.0
103.9
103.4
110.4
120.6
117.1
119.8
127.1
131.4
134.0
Margarine
100.0
104.7
113.7
128.9
127.5
129.5
140.4
157.7
165.4
171.9
Confectioneries
100.0
100.3
103.3
110.2
115.1
114.9
120.5
126.2
132.8
136.0
Macaroni
100.0
105.9
118.6
110.9
110.7
123.2
134.4
130.2
135.7
143.5
Basic foods
Potatoes
100.0
103.6
99.4
103.3
102.5
102.8
101.0
106.4
108.0
107.1
100.0
99.4
94.9
98.1
96.6
96.8
96.8
98.5
96.9
91.8
Vegetables
100.0
104.6
99.4
106.6
110.2
113.8
110.9
114.5
120.7
127.0
Fruit
100.0
112.5
104.8
117.6
109.8
116.8
117.9
125.0
126.1
117.8
Flour and groats
100.0
101.3
98.9
98.5
99.3
95.8
92.6
99.2
100.8
102.4
Beverages and tobacco
100.0
101.3
101.4
100.0
109.2
114.8
117.6
118.2
124.1
129.7
Alcohol and soft drinks
100.0
100.7
100.1
97.8
107.4
112.5
114.9
114.6
120.6
125.8
Tea
100.0
99.1
104.7
102.4
114.9
126.7
132.9
149.7
153.0
162.6
Tobacco
Soft goods
100.0
106.3
104.7
112.3
118.6
123.8
132.4
137.0
142.3
148.5
156.1
100.0
107.8
111.2
115.2
121.5
127.2
131.4
135.2
140.9
Cotton fabrics
100.0
96.8
92.2
96.3
88.0
86.1
88.0
86.6
87.9
94.6
Wool fabrics
100.0
103.3
116.4
127.1
139.8
152.9
151.3
147.2
163.2
172.6
Silk fabrics
100.0.
98.3
114.5
122.9
130.1
182.8
207.3
208.9
182.3
197.9
Linen fabrics
100.0
105.9
110.8
110.5
109.4
99.5
104.4
114.4
119.4
107.4
Sewn goods
100.0
106.3
107.5
109.4
112.5
118.7
123.7
130.8
135.9
141.6
Hosiery
100.0
97.8
99.9
105.4
109.8
111.7
115.1
116.9
119.3
122.3
Leather shoes
100.0
100.0
99.1
100.4
104.5
105.5
109.3
112.5
112.8
112.1
Rubber footwear
100.0
103.5
104.0
112.1
118.5
118.5
117.3
113.9
112.7
112.1
Felt footwear
100.0
99.1
97.2
96.9
95.9
94.7
91.8
89.9
87.4
82.7
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-1 (continued)
1970 = 100
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Soft goods (continued)
Knitwear
100.0
105.2
106.7
110.7
113.0
114.1
116.7
119.2
121.2
123.2
Haberdashery
100.0
110.8
121.2
125.3
131.5
142.9
152.2
164.2
171.3
182.4
School supplies
100.0
111.0
122.4
127.3
137.9
146.6
152.1
162.2
168.6
177.7
Publications
100.0
106.0
112.5
118.7
125.0
134.0
139.8
135.5
144.7
155.2
Household soap
100.0
108.6
119.6
118.6
123.8
136.7
135.8
140.7
147.9
170.5
Toilet soap
100.0
109.9
120.2
129.4
138.8
154.5
169.9
188.0
215.2
243.3
Durables
100.0
113.5
131.0
142.1
154.0
168.9
180.1
196.7
205.0
213.5
Consumer services
100.0
104.1
107.8
112.0
116.9
121.7
126.0
129.1
134.2
138.9
Household services
100.0
105.6
111.6
117.6
124.4
131.2
137.5
141.0
147.6
154.5
Housing
100.0
102.7
105.5
108.4
111.2
114.1
116.8
119.5
122.2
124.8
Urban housing
100.0
104.2
108.6
113.1
117.7
122.3
126.7
131.2
135.8
140.2
Rural housing
100.0
101.0
101.9
102.6
103.3
104.0
104.7
105.2
105.7
106.0
Utilities
100.0
106.8
113.8
120.8
128.2
135.7
143.8
149.5
156.6
163.0
Electricity
100.0
107.6
114.8
122.0
129.6
137.4
147.0
152.1
159.0
163.8
Gas
100.0
108.1
120.3
132.4
144.6
156.8
168.9
175.3
188.6
206.0
Other utilities
100.0
105.7
111.5
117.4
123.6
129.8
135.7
141.7
147.8
153.8
Transportation
100.0
106.9
114.8
121.5
131.2
141.2
149.5
148.8
154.6
161.4
Rail
100.0
103.5
107.7
111.8
115.4
117.7
118.7
121.4
125.1
126.3
Sea
100.0
108.0
117.8
122.0
131.2
134.2
152.0
165.9
147.3
154.4
River
100.0
105.0
105.0
108.7
112.4
116.1
110.6
103.2
106.9
106.9
Bus
100.0
106.6
116.4
125.4
137.8
149.9
160.7
170.1
178.6
185.7
Air
100.0
113.6
122.6
126.3
139.1
156.8
167.3
163.0
179.2
193.1
Tram
100.0
100.2
99.9
100.4
101.4
103.4
105.0
105.1
105.3
104.2
Trolleybus
100.0
107.6
113.9
119.2
124.8
130.1
136.5
141.0
143.9
146.1
Subway
100.0
106.5
113.0
118.9
123.6
129.5
140.7
146.3
153.2
160.2
Taxi
100.0
110.4
120.6
129.3
141.9
156.1
169.7
115.4
107.5
121.6
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Communications
100.0
107.3
115.2
123.5
132.4
142.0
151.1
159.6
168.4
177.9
Postal
100.0
105.2
110.0
113.7
117.1
121.2
122.7
124.0
124.5
126.6
Telegraph
100.0
102.0
105.6
110.8
115.5
121.5
125.6
130.8
134.7
140.2
Telephone
100.0
110.9
123.1
137.8
154.6
172.1
191.9
210.3
230.5
250.4
Radio-TV
100.0
107.4
116.3
123.0
130.1
137.1
143.2
149.3
155.2
160.7
Repair and personal care
100.0
106.4
113.8
122.0
130.1
138.1
146.3
153.5
164.5
175.9
State services
100.0
107.8
116.7
126.6
136.4
146.0
155.9
164.6
177.8
191.7
Private services
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Recreation
100.0
102.3
103.4
105.4
107.0
108.0
106.3
106.7
109.5
111.4
Entertainment
100.0
100.1
98.3
98.6
- 98.3
96.9
90.9
88.1
89.7
89.7
Resorts
100.0
104.5
109.2
113.6
117.2
121.8
127.0
131.9
135.0
139.6
Leisure
100.0
105.9
111.1
115.2
120.0
124.4
127.4
132.0
137.6
141.9
Goods and household services
100.0
104.0
106.8
111.1
116.2
121.6
125.1
129.2
133.4
137.8
Communal services
100.0
102.7
104.4
106.7
109.9
112.7
115.2
117.8
121.5
124.3
Education
100.0
102.9
104.2
106.5
109.7
112.7
115.3
118.1
121.7
124.3
Labor
100.0
102.9
105.2
107.1
109.5
111.7
113.8
115.8
119.2
121.7
Other current purchases
100.0
102.9
101.8
105.1
110.0
115.1
118.9
123.5
128.1
130.9
Health
100.0
102.3
104.5
107.0
110.2
112.6
114.9
117.6
121.3
124.3
Labor
100.0
103.4
106.2
108.5
111.3
113.4
115.6
117.1
118.5
121.7
Other current purchases
100.0
100.4
101.6
104.4
108.2
111.2
113.8
118.3
126.1
128.8
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Table A-1 (continued)
1970 = 100
1980
Consumption 140.4
Goods 139.5
Food 124.5
Animal products 125.3
Fish 120.7
Meat 129.9
Milk 98.6
Butter 128.3
Cheese 141.4
Eggs 163.7
Processed foods 131.8
Sugar 115.4
Vegetable oil 138.3
CI\ Margarine 170.5
ts.)
Confectioneries 139.9
Macaroni 146.0
Basic foods 105.3
Potatoes 94.2
Vegetables 124.0
Fruit 106.2
Flour and groats 103.2
Beverages and tobacco 135.3
Alcohol and soft drinks 130.9
Tea 183.3
Tobacco 162.6
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Soft goods 147.7
Cotton fabrics 94.6
Wool fabrics 170.6
Silk fabrics 233.9
Linen fabrics 109.4
Sewn goods 149.9
Hosiery 124.5
Leather shoes 113.8
Rubber footwear 112.1
Felt footwear 78.6
Knitwear 124.8
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Haberdashery 194.0
School supplies 186.5
Publications 165.7
Household soap 181.8
Toilet soap 266.5
Durables 227.9
Consumer services 143.7
Cr\ Household services 161.6
Housing 127.4
Urban housing 144.6
Rural housing 106.5
Utilities 170.4
Electricity 171.3
Gas 220.4
Other utilities 159.6
Transportation 167.6
Rail 124.8
Sea 157.2
River 110.6
Bus 192.5
Air 205.4
Tram 103.7
Trolleybus 147.6
Subway 166.6
Taxi 138.7
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Table A-1 (continued)
1970 = 100
1980
Communications 187.9
Postal 129.0
Telegraph 145.6
Telephone 271.3
Radio-TV 166.9
Repair and personal care 188.0
State services 206.3
Private services 100.0
Recreation 114.3
Entertainment 91.7
Resorts 143.5
Leisure 146.0
Goods and household services 142.1
Communal services 126.9
Education 127.8
Labor 126.1
Other current purchases 132.3 t
Health 125.2 i
Labor 122.8 1
Other current purchases 129.4
a Because of rounding, components may not add to totals shown.
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Table A-2
Per Capita Consumption in Established Prices,
by Category, 1950-80
1970 = 100
ta
C,
1_,�1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957,
1958
1959
Consumption
45.6
45.9
48.4
51.4
54.1
56.8
58.6
61.9
65.0
66.6
Goods
44.6
44.7
47.6
51.1
54.0
56.7
58.8
62.7
66.0
67.3
Food
53.3
51.7
55.3
, 58.7
59.7
63.0
64.6
68.6
72.0
72.5
Animal products
52.5
52.5
53.0
54.8
56.6
57.4
61.1
66.1
73.6
75.6
Processed foods
35.1
45.7
49.8
58.7
47.4
57.5
61.7
62.7
64.4
66.4
Basic foods
97.6
80.1
89.6
92.7
96.1
98.5
95.0
99.0
97.9
97.0
Beverages and tobacco
28.1
30.9
34.0
37.4
41.4
45.7
46.8
50.9
52.6
51.6
Soft goods
33.0
36.8
38.3
41.5
47.6
49.3
52.5
55.0
58.2
60.8
Durables
14.6
16.7
18.8
24.1
30.3
32.5
35.0
41.6
45.0
48.2
Consumer services
49.4
50.1
51.3
52.4
54.6
57.1
57.9
59.2
61.4
64.0
Household services
42.6
43.8
45.0
46.0
47.9
50.5
51.2
52.6
55.6
59.3
Housing
64.9
65.5
66.2
66.6
67.5
68.5
69.7
71.5
74.0
77.0
Utilities
33.8
35.3
37.0
38.3
39.8
41.3
42.9
44.3
46.8
49.5
Transportation
18.3
20.1
21.7
23.8
26.2
29.7
31.3
35.1
38.5
41.5
Communications
30.3
32.5
34.9
36.3
38.7
40.9
43.3
45.8
47.7
49.8
Repair and personal care
56.8
56.9
57.0
57.0
57.3
57.7
55.3
53.8
56.4
63.8
Recreation
50.7
52.9
55.4
56.8
62.4
- 71.3
73.9
75.9
80.5
81.1
Goods and household services
44.3
44.6
47.3
50.6
53.3
56.0
57.9
61.5
64.8
66.4
Communal services
55.8
56.1
57.2
58.3
60.8
63.3
64.2
65.4
66.8
68.4
Education
57.7
58.1
58.9
59.2
60.7
62.3
62.9
63.4
64.2
65.0
Health
52.6
52.8
54.4
56.9
61.0
64.9
66.3
68.6
71.1
73.9
Population
Million people
180.1
183.0
186.0
190.0
193.0
196.2
199.7
203.2
206.8
210.5
Index, 1970=100
74.2
75.4
76.6
78.3
79.5
80.8
82.2
83.7
85.2
86.7
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table A-2 (continued)
1970 = 100
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Consumption
69.0
69.8
71.7
73.6
74.3
77.8
81.7
863
91.2
959.
Goods
69.8
70.4
72.1
73.6
73.6
77.0
80.9
85.7
90.9
95.8
Food
74.2
74.5
76.5
79.3
78.2
81.1
84.1
88.3
92.7
97.2
Animal products
78.3
77.5
77.9
84.5
76.2
79.3
84.4
88.9
94.1
98.1
Processed foods
70.1
72.0
75.4
77.4
83.4
86.1
86.1
90.1
93.0
97.0
Basic foods
95.3
94.5
95.0
91.4
94.0
95.5
94.1
95.9
98.2
96.1
Beverages and tobacco
53.2
55.5
60.2
63.2
66.1
70.0
74.5
80.5
86.0
96.7
Soft goods
64.5
65.6
66.7
66.0
67.2
70.9
76.3
82.2
88.6
94.3
Durables
53.6
53.6
55.3
54.3
58.9
64.7
71.6
76.9
84.5
90.3
Consumer services
66.0
67.7
70.3
73.2
77.0
81.0
84.7
88.4
92.6
96.1
Household services
60.8
61.8
64.2
66.7
70.9
75.5
80.1
85.3
90.7
95.0
Housing
80.0
82.5
84.8
86.8
88.7
90.4
92.3
94.3
96.3
98.2
Utilities
52.0
56.1
60.8
65.7
70.7
75.9
80.2
84.3
89.4
94.8
Transportation
45.5
49.0
54.4
59.1
63.1
68.1
74.8
81.3
88.2
93.9
Communications
52.7
54.8
57.2
59.7
63.1
68.8
75.2
82.1
87.1
93.8
Repair and personal care
60.9
55.8
54.7
55.5
60.2
66.8
73.1
79.9
87.0
92.6
Recreation
82.7
84.5
85.2
84.3
89.9
92.3
91.7
96.3
99.4
99.5
Goods and household services
68.8
69.4
71.2
72.9
73.3
76.8
80.8
85.6
90.9
95.7
Communal services
70.9
73.2
76.0
79.3
82.7
86.1
89.1
91.2
94.4
97.1
Education
67.2
70.0
74.5
78.5
82.8
86.5
89.7
92.2
95.5
98.3
Health
77.1
78.5
78.5
80.7
82.6
85.5
87.9
89.5
92.5
95.2
Population
Million people
214.3
218.1
221.7
225.1
228.1
230.9
233.5
236.0
238.3
240.6
Index, 1970=100
88.3
89.8
91.3
92.7
93.9
95.1
96.2
97.2
98.1
99.1
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Table A-2 (continued)
1970 = 100
1971
1975
1976
1979
1970
1972
1973
1974
1977
1978
Consumption
100.0
102.9
104.5
107.5
111.3
115.1
117.3
119.9
122.8
125.7
Goods
100.0
102.9
104.2
107.2
102.7
110.9
114.9
116.8
119.6
122.2
125.1
Food
100.0
101.3
100.3
106.0
108.3
108.3
109.6
111.8
113.6
Animal products
100.0
101.2
101.9
106.2
109.3
112.9
111.7
112.2
113.3
115.4
Processed foods
100.0
101.3
101.9
107.2
109.3
109.0
112.7
115.9
118.8
120.2
Basic foods
100.0
102.6
97.5
100.4
98.7
98.1
95.5
99.7
100.3
98.8
Beverages and tobacco
100.0
100.3
99.5
97.2
105.2
109.5
111.1
110.8
115.3
119.6
Soft goods
100.0
103.7
105.8
108.1
110.9
115.9
120.3
123.2
125.6
129.9
Durables
100.0
112.4
128.5
138.1
148.3
161.2
170.3
184.4
190.5
196.8
Consumer services
100.0
103.1
105.8
109.4
112.6
116.1
119.1
121.0
127.2
128.1
Household services
100.0
104.6
109.4
114.3
119.8
125.2
130.0
132.2
137.2
142.4
Housing
100.0
101.8
103.5
105.3
107.1
108.8
110.4
112.0
113.5
115.1
Utilities
100.0
105.8
111.6
117.5
123.5
1294
136.0
140.1
145.5
150.3
Transportation
100.0
105.9
112.6
118.1
126.3
134.7
141.4
139.5
143.7
148.8
Communications
100.0
106.3
113.0
120.0
127.5
135.4
142.8
149.7
156.5
163.9
Repair and personal care
100.0
105.4
111.7
118.6
125.3
131.7
138.3
143.9
152.8
162.2
Recreation
100.0
101.4
101.4
102.4
103.0
103.1
100.5
100.1
101.8
102.7
Goods and household services
100.0
103.1
104.8
108.0
111.9
116.1
118.3
121.1
124.0
127.0
Communal services
100.0
101.7
102.4
103.7
105.8
107.5
108.9
110.5
112.9
114.6
Education
100.0
101.9
102.3
103.6
105.6
107.5
109.0
110.7
113.1
114.6
Health
100.0
101.4
102.5
104.0
106.1
107.4
108.7
110.2
112.7
114.6
Population
Million people
242.8
245.5
247.5
249.8
252.1
254.5
256.8
259.0
261.3
263.4
Index, 1970= 100
100.0
100.9
101.9
102.9
103.8
104,8
105.8
106.7
107.6
108.5
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Table A-2 (continued)
1980
1970 = 100
Consumption 128.4
Goods 127.6
Food 113.9
Animal products 114.6
Processed foods 120.5
Basic foods 96.3
Beverages and tobacco 123.7
Soft goods 135.0
Durables 208.5
Consumer services 131.4
Household services 147.8
Housing 116.5
Utilities 155.9
Transportation 153.3
Communications 171.8
Repair and personal care 171.9
Recreation 104.5
Goods and household services 129.9
Communal services 116.0
Education 116.9
Health 114.5
Population
Million people 265.5
Index, 1970=100 109.3
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Appendix B
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index
of Food, Beverages, and Tobacco
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Meat-kg per capita
26.
25.
26.
27.
28.
28.
30.
32.
36.
38.
Fish-kg per capita
7.0
8.1
7.9
8.0
8.8
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.8
9.8
Vegetable oil-kg per capita
2.7
3.2
3.5
4.2
4.7
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.7
5.0
Margarine-production (thousand tons)
192.
226.
277.
338.
392.
399.
437.
449.
395.
452.
Margarine-wholesale inventories (thousand tons)
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.9
5.6
6.4
7.0
8.2
6.2
11.8
Margarine-retail inventories (thousand tons)
38.6
41.0
43.6
46.4
49.4
52.5
84.7
105.0
81.5
101.8
Margarine-consumption (thousand tons)
192.
223.
274.
335.
388.
395.
404.
427.
421.
426.
Milk-kg per capita
172.
171.
167.
166.
167.
175.
193.
216.
238.
239.
Milk-total consumption (million tons)
30.977
31.365
31.147
31.485
32.236
34.335
38.542
43.891
49.218
50.309
Milk-used for butter (million tons)
9.379
9.862
10.270
10.550
10.728
12.611
14.984
17.040
17.583
19.097
Milk-used for cheese (million tons)
0.934
1.084
1.164
1.307
1.420
1.690
1.882
1.984
2.163
2.253
Milk-net consumption (million tons)
20.664
20.418
19.713
19.629
20.089
20.035
21.677
24.867
29.472
28.960
t.....)
Butter-production (thousand tons)
415.
436.
454.
467.
475.
558.
663. -
754.
778.
845.
CA
VD
Butter-wholesale inventories (thousand tons)
15.1
15.9
16.7
17.6
18.5
19.5 �
18.6
31.4
44.4
31.9
Butter-retail inventories (thousand tons)
17.0
17.3
17.6
17.9
18.2
18.6
31.5
44.8
42.6
44.8
Butter-exports (thousand tons)
33.4
22.9
15.7
10.8
7.4
5.1
26.4
49.1
24.7
80.3
Butter-imports (thousand tons)
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.4
5.6
5.8
8.2
25.2
13.6
Butter-consumption (thousand tons)
386.1
417.1
442.4
459.9
471.4
557.2
630.3
687.0
767.8
788.5
Cheese-production (thousand tons)
73.
85.
91.
102.
III.
132.
147.
155.
169.
176.
Eggs-number per capita
60.
68.
73.
80.
85.
90.
94.
106.
108.
114.
Sugar-kg per capita
11.6
17.4
18.5
22.9
12.6
22.0
23.5
24.0
24.2
25.0
Sugar-total consumption (million tons)
2.089
3.190
3.433
4.346
2.424
4.316
4.693
4.877
5.005
5.262
Sugar-used for confectioneries (million tons)
0.645
0.753
0.836
0.916
0.947
0.903
1.028
1.024
1.089
1.162
Sugar-net consumption (million tons)
1.444
2.438
2.597
3.429
1.477
3.414
3.665
3.853
3.915
4.101
Confectioneries-production (thousand tons)
993.
1,158.
1,286.
1,410.
1,457.
1,389.
1,582.
1,575.
1,676.
1,787.
Confectioneries-index of quality (1970=100)
91.4
91.7
92.0
92.4
92.7
93.0
93.3
93.7
94.1
93.5
Confectioneries-adjusted production index
31.3
36.7
40.9
45.0
46.6
44.6
51.0
51.0
54.5
57.7
(1970=100)
Tea-production (thousand tons)
84.9
94.9
97.7
110.0
110.2
121.0
110.0
112.4
138.2
145.7
Tea-net imports (thousand tons)
3.2
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.5
9.6
15.3
21.4
25.1
Tea-inventory change (thousand tons)
-1.0
-1.8
-3.1
-5.5
-9.8
-17.3
-1.4
3.6
7.5
18.7
Tea-consumption (thousand tons)
89.1
100.1
104.5
119.5
124.2
142.8
121.0
124.1
152.1
152.1
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Appendix B (continued)
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1950
1951
1952
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1953
Flour-kg per capita
172.
176.
180.
179.
183.
189.
184.
178.
172.
169.
Flour-total consumption (million tons)
30.977
32.198
53.419
34.029
35.250
37.082
36.745
36.170
35.570
35.574
Flour-used in macaroni (million tons)
0.450
0.507
0.631
0.757
0.870
0.980
0.882
0.979
0.972
0.984
Flour-used in confectioneries (million tons)
0.348
0.405
0.450
0.493
0.510
0.486
0.554
0.551
0.587
0.625
Flour-net consumption (million tons)
30.180
31.285
32.338
32.779
33.871
35.616
35.309
34.639
34.011
33.965
Flour-index of quality (1970=100)
84.6
86.4
88.2
89.1
90.0
90.9
91.4
92.0
92.5
93.7
Flour-adjusted index of consumption
(1970 = 100)
75.2
79.6
84.0
86.0
89.8
95.4
95.1
93.9
92.7
93.7
Macaroni-deflated retail sales (million 1970
rubles)
157.
184.
241.
301.
355.
379.
346.
389.
418.
401.
Potatoes-kg per capita
241.
107.
152.
163.
167.
148.
148.
149.
150.
150.
Vegetables-kg per capita
51.
48.
51.
58.
60.
69.
65.
66.
71.
67.
Fruits and berries-kg per capita
11.
12.
12.
13.
15.
17.
14.
23.
22.
22.
Vodka and liquor-consumption (million
dekaliters)
62.8
71.1
80.5
91.2
103.2
116.9
122.9
140.2
145.4
137.3
Cognac-consumption (million dekaliters)
0.4
0.5
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.4
Rum-consumption (million dekaliters)
Wine-consumption (million dekaliters)
30.4
34.8
39.7
45.4
52.0
59.4
64.6
69.1
78.7
85.4
Champagne-consumption (million dekaliters)
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
Beer-consumption (million dekaliters)
131.0
140.3
150.3
161.0
172.4
184.7
180.7
196.5
199.1
231.9
Nonalcoholic beverages-consumption (million
dekaliters)
71.9
82.0
78.9
87.8
104.7
97.8
97.2
115.2
120.1
134.6
Tobacco-deflated retail sales (million 1970
rubles)
814.
864.
915.
996.
1,118.
1,200.
1,268.
1,321.
1,370.
1,423.
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI penaidd\of
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Meat-kg per capita
40.
39.
40.
44.
38.
41.
44.
46.
48.
47.
Fish-kg per capita
9.9
10.1
10.5
11.2
12.2
12.6
12.9
13.2
14.3
15.8
Vegetable oil-kg per capita
5.3
5.6
5.9
6.2
6.6
7.1
6.3
6.5
6.5
6.6
Margarine-production (thousand tons)
431.
476.
516.
566.
606.
670.
599.
624.
652.
691.
Margarine-wholesale inventories (thousand tons)
7.3
9.8
9.2
9.4
7.3
16.0
19.6
32.4
35.4
25.2
Margarine-retail inventories (thousand tons)
54.7
45.0
65.4
70.7
43.9
124.3
136.1
143.6
147.9
135.0
Margarine-consumption (thousand tons)
483.
483.
496.
560.
635.
581.
584.
604.
645.
714.
Milk-kg per capita
240.
248.
250.
259.
238.
251.
260.
274.
285.
304.
Milk-total consumption (million tons)
51.432
54.160
55.510
58.230
54.288
57.956
60.710
64.664
67.915
73.142
Milk-used for butter (million tons)
19.165
20.204
21.244
19.978
21.515
26.758
26.148
26.600
26.329
24.069
>
-0
Milk-used for cheese (million tons)
2.483
2.611
2.906
2.957
3.520
3.968
4.659
4.992
5.517
4.506
7
Milk-net consumption (million tons)
29.784
31.344
31.360
35.295
29.253
27.229
30.056
33.405
36.595
43.557
0
<
Butter-production (thousand tons)
848.
894.
940.
884.
952.
1,184.
1,157.
1,177.
1,165.
1,065.
('D
0-
Butter-wholesale inventories (thousand tons)
35.1
40.8
45.7
32.4
61.8
174.1
388.8
532.7
537.2
333.5
0
-s
Butter-retail inventories (thousand tons)
33.4
29.6
60.9
49.7
48.5
135.5
85.5
77.5
86.4
109.5
7:1
('D
f.,..)
---.1
.--)
Butter-exports (thousand tons)
37.2
55.6
69.7
65.0
2.8
846.3
25.3
43.0
5.8
947.5
54.1
2.3
940.5
63.4
2.2
75.6
2.4
1,078.4
74.3
2.0
1,173.3
(T)
sl�
(,)
('D
"
iv
Butter-imports (thousand tons)
4.0
7.8
3.3
837.4
4.2
Butter-consumption (thousand tons)
823.0
844.3
'402.7
979.9
Cheese-production (thousand tons)
194.
204.
227.
231.
275.
310.
352.
364.
390.
431.
c)
Eggs-number per capita
118.
28.0
III.
107.
109.
113.
124.
132.
35.3
138.
36.7
144.
37.4
148.
37.8
co
c)
--.)
Sugar-kg per capita
29.0
30.0
31.5
32.2
34.2
Sugar-total consumption (million tons)
6.000
6.325
6.651
7.091
7.345
7.897
8.243
8.661
8.912
9.095
co
Sugar-used for confectioneries (million tons)
1.134
1.174
1.267
1.340
1.499
1.505
1.455
1.543
1.658
1.979
0
c)
Sugar-net consumption (million tons)
5.751
7.297
_
4.867
5.151
5.383
5.846
6.392
6.788
7.118
7.254
C71
n)
Confectioneries-production (thousand tons)
1,744.
1,806.
1,950.
2,061.
2,306.
2,315.
2,238.
2,374.
2,551.
2,765.
-8
Confectioneries-index of quality (1970=100)
93.0
56.0
93.4
58.2
93.8
63.2
92.5
65.8
93.6
74.5
94.7
75.7
97.0
75.0
98.4
80.7
98.6
86.9
_
99.5
95.0
-P�
n)
_.
Confectioneries-adjusted production index
(1970=100)
Tea-production (thousand tons)
163.7
161.6
178.9
195.6
193.7
197.0
238.2
234.4
229.0
244.6
Tea-net imports (thousand tons)
17.3
9.2
8.6
14.4
23.7
25.2
9.4
12.8
9.1
15.2
Tea-inventory change (thousand tons)
17.3
4.5
-4.1
-.2.4
-1.9
17.8
13.2
0.4
-8.4
- 18.5
Tea-consumption (thousand tons)
163.7
166.3
191.6
212.4
219.3
204.4
234.4
246.8
246.5
278.3
Appendix B (continued)
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1960
1961
163.
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Flour-kg per capita
164.
162.
161.
159.
156.
153.
150.
149.
149.
Flour-total consumption (million tons)
35.145
35.550
35.915
36.241
36.268
36.020
35.725
35.400
35.507
35.849
Flour-used in macaroni (million tons)
1.030
1.022
1.078
1.160
1.293
1.280
1.123
1.181
1.087
1.199
Flour-used in confectioneries (million tons)
0.610
0.632
0.682
0.721
0.807
0.810
0.783
0.831
0.893
0.968
Flour-net consumption (million tons)
33.505
33.896
34.155
34.360
34.168
33.930
33.819
33.389
33.526
33.683
Flour-index of quality (1970=100)
94.9
95.0
95.1
89.8
92.0
94.1
95.5
97.0
98.7
99.4
Flour-adjusted index of consumption
(1970=100)
93.6
94.8
95.7
90.9
92.6
94.1
95.1
95.4
97.4
98.7
Macaroni-deflated retail sales (million 1970
rubles)
439.
438.
477.
342.
513.
496.
493.
508.
497.
543.
Potatoes-kg per capita
143.
143.
142.
141.
140.
142.
135.
131.
131.
131.
Vegetables-kg per capita
70.
67.
67.
63.
74.
72.
73.
80.
79.
76.
Fruits and berries-kg per capita
22.
22.
24.
25.
25.
28.
27.
29.
33.
30.
Vodka and liquor-consumption (million
dekaliters)
137.8
145.3
161.5
168.5
176.8
188.7
197.2
211.6
224.8
236.4
Cognac-consumption (million dekaliters)
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.7
3.2
4.0
4.9
5.8
6.7
Rum-consumption (million dekaliters)
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.7
Wine-consumption (million dekaliters)
102.9
111.7
129.4
151.0
165.7
177.9
202.9
232.0
257.2
351.7
Champagne-consumption (million dekaliters)
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.7
4.1
4.5
4.9
5.4
5.8
6.4
Beer-consumption (million dekaliters)
252.1
269.3
284.3
282.4
284.7
318.8
346.6
364.1
385.4
399.0
Nonalcoholic beverages-consumption (million
dekaliters)
141.5
142.8
149.0
155.0
161.9
168.8
184.0
200.6
218.7
238.3
Tobacco-deflated retail sales (million 1970
rubles)
1,492.
1,534.
1,563.
1,642.
1,764.
1,909.
2,019.
2,198.
2,397.
2,627.
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Meat-kg per capita
48.
50.
51.
53.
55.
57.
56.
56.
57.
58.
Fish-kg per capita
15.4
14.8
15.1
16.1
16.5
16.8
18.4
17.1
17.1
16.4
Vegetable oil-kg per capita
6.8
7.0
6.9
7.3
7.9
7.6
7.7
8.1
8.3
8.4
Margarine-production (thousand tons)
762.
850.
850.
883.
997.
999.
1,040.
1,168.
1,225.
1,273.
Margarine-wholesale inventories (thousand tons)
28.3
56.4
31.0
26.7
52.9
49.7
49.7
49.7
49.7
49.7
Margarine-retail inventories (thousand tons)
153.3
199.3
232.6
165.0
191.8
234.7
234.7
234.7 ,
234.7
234.7
Margarine-consumption (thousand tons)
741.
776.
842.
955.
944.
959.
1,040.
1,168.
1,225.
1,273.
Milk-kg per capita
307.
301.
296.
307.
315.
316.
316.
321.
318.
319.
Milk-total consumption (million tons)
74.540
73.775
73.260
76.689
79.411
80.422
81.149
83.139
83.093
84.025
Milk-used for butter (million tons)
24.114
25.357
26.578
30.510
30.736
29.832
30.646
33.900
33.267
31.843
Milk-used for cheese (million tons)
6.118
5.926
6.182
6.861
7.232
7.194
7.846
8.384
8.845
8.973
Milk-net consumption (million tons)
44.307
42.491
40.500
39.318
41.443
43.396
42.657
40.855
40.981
43.208
Butter-production (thousand tons)
1,067.
1,122.
1,176.
1,350.
1,360.
1,320.
1,356.
1,500.
1,472.
1,409.
Butter-wholesale inventories (thousand tons)
134.8
97.5
114.4
192.2
181.8
165.6
165.6
165.6
165.6
165.6
Butter-retail inventories (thousand tons)
112.3
91.2
66.1
106.3
118.0
91.4
91.4
91.4
91.4
91.4
Butter-exports (thousand tons)
73.0
24.3
16.3
17.5
18.3
20.0
16.5
17.8
17.6
17.9
Butter-imports (thousand tons)
2.2
2.2
6.2
229.7
10.9
11.6
9.6
75.7
38.9
174.2
La
--.1
Butter-consumption (thousand tons)
1,192.1
1,158.3
1,174.0
1,444.2
1,351.4
1,354.3
1,349.1
1,557.9
1,493.3
1,565.3
Cheese-production (thousand tons)
478.
463.
483.
565.
562.
613.
655.
691.
701.
t.....)�
536.
Eggs-number per capita
159.
174.
185.
195.
205.
216.
209.
222.
232.
233.
Sugar-kg per capita
38.8
39.5
38.8
40.8
41.0
40.9
41.9
42.4
42.8
42.8
Sugar-total consumption (million tons)
9.421
9.681
9.603
10.192
10.336
10.409
10.760
10.982
11.184
11.274
Sugar-used for confectioneries (million tons)
1.882
1.878
1.925
2.044
2.124
2.111
2.202
2.295
2.403
2.450
Sugar-net consumption (million tons)
7.538
7.803
7.678
8.148
8.213
8.298
8.558
8.686
8.781
8.824
Confectioneries-production (thousand tons)
2,896.
2,890.
2,961.
3,144.
3,267.
3,247.
3,387.
3,531.
3,697.
3,769.
Confectioneries-index of quality (1970=100)
100.0
100.5
101.0
101.5
102.0
102.5
103.0
103.5
104.0
104.5
Confectioneries-adjusted production index
100.0
100.3
103.3
110.2
115.1
114.9
120.5
126.2
132.8
136.0
(1970=100)
Tea-production (thousand tons)
272.7
280.2
291.1
305.4
329.9
352.3
375.4
434.2
453.8
480.1
Tea-net imports (thousand tons)
19.3
31.6
35.9
24.8
35.3
49.8
45.9
38.5
28.8
32.1
Tea-inventory change (thousand tons)
-13.7
8.7
7.0'
17.3
13.8
14.8
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
Tea-consumption (thousand tons)
305.7
303.1
320.0 ,
. 312.9
351.4
387.3
406.3
457.7
467.6
497.2
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Appendix B (continued)
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Flour-kg per capita
149.
149.
145.
143.
142.
141.
141.
139.
140.
139.
Flour-total consumption (million tons)
36.177
36.520
35.887
35.721
35.798
35.884
36.209
36.001
36.582
36.613
Flour-used in macaroni (million tons)
1.211
1.218
1.359
1.373
1.252
1.368
1.510
1.525
1.487
1.533
Flour-used in confectioneries (million tons)
1.014
1.011
1.036
1.100
1.143
1.136
1.185
1.236
1.294
1.319
Flour-net consumption (million tons)
33.952
34.290
33.493
33.248
33.403
33.380
33.513
33.240
33.801
33.760
Flour-index of quality (1970=100)
100.0
100.3
100.3
100.5
100.9
97.5
93.8
101.3
101.3
103.0
Flour-adjusted index of consumption
(1970 = 100)
100.0
101.3
98.9
98.5
99.3
95.8
92.6
99.2
100.8
102.4
Macaroni-deflated retail sales (million 1970
rubles)
543.
575.
644.
602.
601.
669.
730.
707.
737.
779.
Potatoes-kg per capita
130.
128.
121.
124.
121.
120.
119.
120.
117.
110.
Vegetables-kg per capita
82.
85.
80.
85.
87.
89.
86.
88.
92.
96.
Fruits and berries-kg per capita
35.
39.
36.
40.
37.
39.
39.
41.
41.
38.
Vodka and liquor-consumption (million
dekaliters)
237.9
230.7
217.1
244.4
257.7
261.4
265.1
269.6
283.7
296.0
Cognac-consumption (million dekaliters)
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
8.1
7.6
7.7
8.1
8.5
Rum-consumption (million dekaliters)
0.4
0.9
2.0
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
Wine-consumption (million dekaliters)
382.0
400.1
413.9
314.4
382.3
421.7
436.1
413.3
434.9
453.8
Champagne-consumption (million dekaliters)
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.7
7.9
8.2
8.5
8.8
9.3
9.7
Beer-consumption (million dekaliters)
421.2
443.5
472.4
511.0
543.4
575.1
597.8
626.4
659.2
687.8
Nonalcoholic beverages-consumption (million
dekaliters)
259.8
267.0
275.0
283.0
291.5
300.2
309.2
318.5
335.2
. 349.7
Tobacco-deflated retail sales (million 1970
rubles)
2,780.
2,954.
3,122.
3,296.
3,441.
3,681.
3,808.
3,957.
4,127.
4,339.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
1980
Meat�kg per capita 57.
Fish�kg per capita 17.0
Vegetable oil�kg per capita 8.6
Margarine�production (thousand tons) 1,263.
Margarine�wholesale inventories (thousand tons) 49.7
Margarine�retail inventories (thousand tons) 234.7
Margarine�consumption (thousand tons) 1,263.
Milk�kg per capita 314.
Milk�total consumption (million tons) 83.367
Milk�used for butter (million tons) 31.030
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Milk�used for cheese (million tons)
Milk�net consumption (million tons)
Butter�production (thousand tons)
Butter�wholesale inventories (thousand tons)
8.653
43.684
1,373.
165.6
Butter�retail inventories (thousand tons) 91.4
Butter�exports (thousand tons) 17.9
Butter�imports (thousand tons) 174.2
Butter�consumption (thousand tons) 1,529.3
Cheese�production (thousand tons) 676.
Eggs�number per capita 238.
Sugar�kg per capita 42.2
Sugar�total consumption (million tons) 11.204
Sugar�used for confectioneries (million tons) 2.508
Sugar�net consumption (million tons) 8.696
Confectioneries�production (thousand tons) 3,859.
Confectioneries�index of quality (1970=100) 105.0
Confectioneries�adjusted production index 139.9
(1970=100)
Tea�production (thousand tons) 530.5
Tea�net imports (thousand tons) 40.0
Tea�inventory change (thousand tons) 10.0
Tea�consumption (thousand tons) 560.5
Flour�kg per capita 139.
Flour�total consumption (million tons) 36.904
Flour�used in macaroni (million tons) 1.534
Flour�used in confectioneries (million tons) 1.351
Flour�net consumption (million tons) 34.019
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Appendix B (continued)
1980
Flour�index of quality (1970=100) 103.0
Flour�adjusted index of consumption 103.2
(1970=100)
Macaroni�deflated retail sales (million 1970 793.
rubles)
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Potatoes�kg per capita 112.
Vegetables�kg per capita 93.
Fruits and berries�kg per capita 34.
Vodka and liquor�consumption (million
dekaliters)
Cognac�consumption (million dekaliters)
Rum�consumption (million dekaliters)
Wine�consumption (million dekaliters) 285.0
Champagne�consumption (million dekaliters)
Beer�consumption (million dekaliters) 650.0
Nonalcoholic beverages�consumption (million
dekaliters)
Tobacco�deflated retail sales (million 1970 4,521.
rubles)
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Appendix C
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index
of Soft Goods
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
L..)
-4
---11
1952
1955
1957
1950
1951
1953
1954
1956
1958
1959
Cotton textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
2,477.
2,487.
2,589.
2,753.
2,827.
2,543.
2,558.
2,324.
2,215.
2,353.
Cotton textiles-price index (1940=100)
249.
243.
243.
214.
182.
176.
176.
176.
176.
176.
Cotton textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,247.
1,298.
1,351.
1,632.
1,970.
1,833.
1,844.
1,675.
1,596.
1,696.
Wool textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
921.
798.
706.
814.
969.
744.
986.
1,253.
1,366.
1,380.
Wool textiles-price index (1940=100)
190.
185.
184.
176.
174.
173.
173.
173.
173.
173.
Wool textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
564.
502.
447.
538.
648.
581.
663.
843.
919.
928.
Silk textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
446.
538.
657.
860.
1,143.
1,162.
1,416.
1,754.
1,808.
1,735.
Silk textiles-price index (1970=100)
186.
184.
184.
176.
171.
170.
169.
168.
168.
168.
Silk textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
225.
275.
336.
459.
628.
643.
788.
982.
1,612.
971.
Linen textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
136.
127.
119.
111.
118.
117.
159.
207.
230.
235.
Linen textiles-price index (1970=100)
127.6
127.1
126.6
125.8
125.0
116.0
116.0
116.0
115.3
115.3
Linen textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
80.
75.
70.
66.
70.
75.
102.
133.
149.
152.
Sewn goods-production index (1970=100)
19.5
22.2
24.9
27.8
33.1
36.6
40.3
40.7
44.5
49.2
Hosiery-production (million pair)
472.7
597.8
584.9
611.9
674.8
772.2
803.2
844.7
887.7
926.1
Leather shoes-production (million pair)
203.0
248.1
241.2
237.5
255.5
271.2
287.0
317.3
356.4
389.9
Leather shoes-wholesale inventory change
(million pair)
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.5
-1.3
1.4
1.5
Leather shoes-retail inventory change
(million pair)
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.6
0.7
9.1
17.0
Leather shoes-net imports (million pair)
6.6
4.4
3.0
2.0
1.3
0.9
11.4
11.8
24.5
26.1
Leather shoes-consumption (million pair)
207.6
250.5
242.2
237.5
254.8
270.1
296.3
329.7
370.4
397.5
Rubber footwear-production (million pair)
110.8
115.9
121.2
126.8
132.6
138.6
145.0
150.7
159.2
167.4
Felt footwear-production (million pair)
22.4
22.9
23.3
23.8
24.1
24.5
24.2
26.4
28.6
31.1
Knit underwear-production (million units)
150.4
198.3
234.9
274.7
327.1
346.5
348.5
374.7
398.1
399.3
Knit outerwear-production (million units)
47.1
58.9
63.5
66.0
75.5
85.2
85.4
90.2
97.1
97.2
Haberdashery-retail sales (million rubles)
640.
684.
741.
813.
943.
1,035.
1,150.
1,381.
1,523.
1,643.
Haberdashery-price index (1940=100)
153.
150.
149.
137.
133.
133.
133.
132.
132.
132.
Haberdashery-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
505.
551.
601.
717.
857.
940.
1,045.
1,264.
1,394.
1,504.
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Appendix C (continued)
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1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
School and office supplies-retail sales
(million rubles)
199.
217.
243.
260.
273.
275.
307.
337.
363.
392.
School and office supplies-price
index (1940=100)
138.
134.
.134.
121.
107.
104.
104.
104.
104.
104.
School and office supplies-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
113.
126.
142.
168.
199.
206.
230.
253.
272.
294.
Publications-retail sales (million rubles)
316.
332.
348.
378.
411.
466.
524.
581.
641.
715.
Household soap-retail sales (million rubles)
294.
289.
273.
263.
280.
263.
290.
306.
326.
328.
Household soap-price index (1970=100)
182.3
161.5
143.0
123.3
106.3
103.3
103.1
103.4
103.4
103.1
Household soap-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
151.
167.
178.
199.
246.
238.
263.
276.
294.
297.
Toilet soap-retail sales (million rubles) ,
320.
312.
352.
373.
389.
449.
483.
514.
Toilet soap-price index (1970=100)
202.5
159.2
-
106.2
101.3
101.3
100.9
101.3
101.3
Toilet soap-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
153.
170.
190.
247.
321.
357.
372.
431.
462.
492.
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1964
1965
1966
1960
1961
1962
1963
1967
1968
1969
Cotton textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
2,380.
2,130.
2,036.
1,950.
1,911.
1,871.
1,914.
1,993.
1,985.
1,963.
Cotton textiles-price index (1940=100)
176.
176.
176.
176.
176.
175' i
170.
170.
170.
170.
Cotton textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,715.
1,535.
1,467.
1,405.
1,377.
1,356.
1,428.
1,487.
1,481.
1,465.
Wool textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
1,630.
1,488.
1,356.
1,233.
1,220.
1,330.
1,307.
1,316.
1,389.
1,403.
Wool textiles-price index (1940=100)
173.
170.
170.
170.
170.
160.
156.
156.
156.
156.
Wool textiles--deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,097.
1,019.
928.
844.
835.
968.
975.
982.
1,036.
1,047.
Silk textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
1,718.
1,597.
1,622.
1,559.
1,487.
1,542.
1,589.
1,634.
1,557.
1,499.
Silk textiles-price index (1940=100)
161.
156.
149.
144.
144.
132.
126.
126.
126.
126.
Silk textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,003.
962.
1,023.
1,018.
971.
1,098.
1,186.
1,219.
1,162.
1,118.
Linen textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
254.
243.
217.
210.
212.
240.
271.
290.
321.
334.
Linen textiles-price index (1970=100)
115.4
115.4
115.4
115.9
115.9
104.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.1
Linen textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
164.
157.
140.
135.
136.
171.
202.
216.
239.
249.
Sewn goods-production index (1970=100)
53.0
56.6
58.7
57.5
56.2
56.1
61.6
70.6
81.2
90.6
Hosiery-production (million pair)
964.1
1,000.5
1,032.8
1.121.6
1,236.0
1,350.0
1,444.3
1,485.9
1,466.4
1,395.9
Leather shoes-production (million pair)
419.3
443.2
456.3
462.7
474.7
486.0
523.2
563.2
600.0
638.4
-Leather shoes-wholesale inventory change
(million pair)
5.4
1.5
1.5
2.9
0.1
-3.2
-1.0
1.9
-0.2
3.1
Leather shoes-retail inventory change
(million pair)
17.3
13.1
1.8
9.2
4.4
-12.8
-10.1
6.7
11.6
21.1
Leather shoes-net imports (million pair)
29.7
25.1
25.2
25.6
25.1
27.9
33.7
48.9
54.6
56.2
Leather shoes-consumption (million pair)
426.3
453.7
478.2
476.2
495.3
529.9
568.0
603.5
643.2
670.4
Rubber footwear-production (million pair)
166.2
163.6
157.2
159.6
164.7
161.0
164.2
168.2
168.6
167.8
Felt footwear-production (million pair)
31.5
33.4
33.8
34.3
34.3
33.3
32.6
32.2
32.4
31.8
Knit underwear-production (million units)
471.6
487.7
519.4
554.5
639.8
714.8
770.4
811.8
825.0
821.6
Knit outerwear-production (million units)
111.7
117.8
124.9
132.9
153.4
187.9
222.1
255.4
302.7
363.4
Haberdashery-retail sales (million rubles)
1,724.
1,830.
1,982.
2,009.
2,077.
2,281.
2,500.
2,686.
2,967.
3,284.
Haberdashery-price index (1940=100)
123.
122.
122.
122.
122.
121.
121.
121.
121.
121.
Haberdashery-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,694.
1,813.
1,963.
1,990.
2,057.
2,278.
2,497.
2,682.
2,963.
3,279.
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Appendix C (continued)
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t....)
oo
0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
School and office supplies-retail sales
(million rubles)
424.
436.
453.
476.
539.
592.
656.
721.
827.
956.
School and office supplies-price index
(1940=100)
103.
102.
102.
102.
102.
102.
102.
102.
102.
102.
School and office supplies-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
321.
334.
347.
364.
412.
453.
502.
552.
633.
732.
Publications-retail sales (million rubles)
759.
794.
832.
894.
947.
1,078.
1,197.
1,312.
1,385.
1,550.
Household soap-retail sales (million rubles)
351.
368.
380.
423.
433.
487.
533.
602.
655.
674.
Household soap-price index (1970=100)
100.1
100.7
100.7
100.6
100.6
100.6
100.6
100.7
100.6
100.8
Household soap-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
328.
341.
352.
393.
402.
452.
495.
558.
608.
625.
Toilet soap-retail sales (million rubles)
535.
566.
605.
613.
658.
716.
792.
880.
965.
1,069.
Toilet soap-price index (1970=100)
98.9
99.9
99.5
100.0
99.5
100.0
100.0
99.9
99.7
100.1
Toilet soap-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
525.
549.
589.
594.
641.
694.
768.
854.
939.
1,035.
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1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Cotton textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
1,822.
1,763.
1,679.
1,755.
1,604.
1,568.
1,604.
1,578.
1,601.
1,723.
Cotton textiles-price index (1940=100)
170.
170.
170.
170.
170.
170.
170.
170.
170.
170.
Cotton textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,359.
1,315.
1,253.
1,309.
1,197.
1,170.
1,197.
1,177.
1,195.
1,286.
Wool textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
1,345.
1,389.
1,565.
1,710.
1,880.
2,056.
2,035.
1,980.
2,195.
2,321.
Wool textiles-price index (1940=100)
156.
156.
156.
156.
156.
156.
156.
156.
156.
156.
Wool textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,004.
1,036.
,1,168.
1,276.
1,403.
1,534.
1,518.
1,477.
1,638.
1,732.
Silk textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
1,530.
1,504.
1,752.
1,881.
1,990.
2,797.
3,171.
3,247.
2,833.
3,076.
Silk texiiles-price index (1940=100)
126.
126.
126.
126.
126.
126.
126.
128.
128.
128.
Silk textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,142.,
1,122.
1,307.
1,403.
1,485.
2,087.
2,366.
2,385.
2,081.
2,259.
Linen textiles-retail sales (million rubles)
329.
349.
365.
364.
360.
327.
345.
379.
396.
357.
Linen textiles-price index (1970=100)
100.0
100.1
100.1
100.2
100.0
99.9
100.4
100.7
100.8
101.0
Linen textiles-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
245.
260.
272.
271.
269.
244.
256.
281.
293.
264.
Sewn goods-production index (1970=100)
100.0
106.2
107.5
109.4
112.5
118.7
125.7
130.8
135.9
141.6
Hosiery-production (million pair)
1,338.1
1,309.1
1,336.9
1,411.0
1,469.0
1,495.0
1,540.0
1,564.0
1,596.0
1,636.0
Leather shoes-production (million pair)
678.9
681.9
647.4
666.2
684.0
698.0
724.0
736.0
740.0
740.0
Leather shoes-wholesale inventory change
(million pair)
5.2
7.1
-2.0
0.4
-1.1
2.9
Leather shoes-retail inventory change
(million pair)
18.1
21.6
0.2
6.8
1.4
8.4
10.0
Leather shoes-net imports (million pair)
59.7
62.2
59.6
59.3
63.9
67.6
67.7
69.0
66.8
61.6
Leather shoes-consumption (million pair)
715.3
715.4
708.8
718.3
747.6
754.3
781.7
805.0
806.8
801.6
Rubber footwear-production (million pair)
173.0
179.0
180.0
194.0
205.0
205.0
203.0
197.0
195.0
194.0
Felt footwear-production (million pair)
31.8
31.5
30.9
30.8
30.5
30.1
29.2
28.6
27.8
26.3
Knit underwear-production (million units)
814.4
828.8
842.9
900.4
920.0
955.0
990.0
1,038.0
1,080.0
1,111.0
Knit outerwear-production (million units)
415.2
445.4
450.9
459.7
469.0
466.0
472.0
474.0
474.0
478.0
Haberdashery-retail sales (million rubles)
3,638.
4,031.
4,410.
4,557.
4,785.
5,197.
5,537.
5,975.
6,231.
6,637.
Haberdashery-price index (1940=100)
121.
121.
121.
121.
121.
121.
121.
121.
121.
121.
Haberdashery-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
3,633.
4,025.
4,404.
4,551.
4,778.
5,190.
5,529.
5,967.
6,222.
6,628.
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Appendix C (continued)
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1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
School and office supplies-retail sales
(million rubles)
1,015.
1,032.
1,125.
1,170.
1,238.
1,316.
1,365.
1,456.
1,513.
1,595.
School and office supplies-price index
(1940=100)
95.
87.
86.
86.
84.
84.
84.
84.
84.
84.
School and office supplies-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
834.
926.
1,021.
1,062.
1,150.
1,223.
1,268.
1,353.
1,406.
1,482.
Publications-retail sales (million rubles)
1,640.
1,738.
1,845.
1,947.
2,050.
2,197.
2,294.
2,223.
2,374.
2,546.
Household soap-retail sales (million rubles)
697.
753.
827.
820.
857.
946.
940.
974.
1,008.
1,153.
Household soap-price index (1970=100)
100.0
99.5
99.2
99.2
99.3
99.3
99.3
99.3
97.8
97.0
Household soap-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
651.
707.
779.
772.
806.
890.
884.
916.
963.
1,110.
Toilet soap-retail sales (million rubles)
1,176.
1,292.
1,411.
1,520.
1,632.
1,807.
1,983.
2,199.
2,529.
2,844.
Toilet soap-price index (1970=100)
100.0
100.0
99.8
99.9
100.0
99.4
99.3
99.5
99.9
99.
Toilet soap-deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,140.
1,253.
1,371.
1,475.
1,582.
1,762.
1,937.
2,143.
2,453.
2,774.
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1980
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Cotton textiles--retail sales (million rubles)
Cotton textiles�price index (1940=100)
Cotton textiles�deflated retail sales
(million 1970 rubles)
1,723
170
1,286
Wool textiles�retail sales (million rubles) 2,294
Wool textiles�price index (1940=100) 156
Wool textiles�deflated retail sales 1,712
(million 1970 rubles)
Silk textiles�retail sales (million rubles) 3,636
Silk textiles�price index (1940=100) 128
Silk textiles�deflated retail sales 2,671
(million 1970 rubles)
Linen textiles�retail sales (million rubles) 363
Linen textiles�price index (1970=100) 100.8
Linen textiles�deflated retail sales 269
(million 1970 rubles)
Sewn goods�production index (1970=100) 149.9
Hosiery�production (million pair) 1,666.0
Leather shoes�production (million pair) 744.0
Leather shoes�wholesale inventory change 0.0
(million pair)
Leather shoes�retail inventory change 0.0
(million pair)
Leather shoes�net imports (million pair)
Leather shoes�consumption (million pair)
70.0
814.0
Rubber footwear�production (million pair)
Felt footwear�production (million pair)
194.0
25.0
Knit underwear�production (million units) 1,144.0
Knit outerwear�production (million units) 478.0
Haberdashery�retail sales (million rubles) 7,057.
Haberdashery�price index (1940=100) 121.
Haberdashery�deflated retail sales 7,047.
(million 1970 rubles)
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Appendix C (continued)
1980
School and office supplies�retail sales 1,674
1million rubles)
School and office supplies�price index 84
(1940=100)
School and office supplies�deflated retail sales 1,556.0
(million 1970 rubles)
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Publications�retail sales (million rubles) 2,717.0
Household soap�retail sales (million rubles) 1,227
Household soap�price index (1970=100) 96.9
Household soap�deflated retail sales 1,183
(million 1970 rubles)
Toilet soap�retail sales (million rubles) 3,124
Toilet soap�price index (1970=100) 99.7
Toilet soap�deflated retail sales 3,038
(million 1970 rubles)
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Appendix D
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index
of Durables and Miscellaneous Goods
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Nonfood goods-retail sales (million rubles)
14,960.
15,517.
16,807.
19,194.
21,794.
22,660.
24,807.
28,721.
30,762.
32,661.
Nonfood goods-price index (1940=100)
165.
157.
156.
145.
134.
134.
133.
133.
133.
132.
Nonfood goods-retail sales (million 1970 rubles)
11,243.
12,255.
13,359.
16,414.
20,168.
20,969.
23,128.
26,777.
28,680.
30,682.
Soft goods-retail sales (million rubles)
11,931.
12,029.
13,190.
14,372.
16,508.
16,601.
18,395.
20,978.
22,241.
23,503.
Soft goods-price index (1970=100)
133.
126.
128.
116.
110.
108.
108.
108.
108.
108.
Soft goods-retail sales (million 1970 rubles)
, 8,947.
9,584.
10,306.
12,428.
15,074
15,402.
17,039.
19,401.
20,574.
21,833.
Durables and miscellaneous goods
(million 1970 rubles)
2,295.
2,672.
3,053.
3,986.
5,094.
5,567.
6,089.
7,377.
8,107.
8,848.
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Nonfood goods-retail sales (million rubles)
35,800.
36,216.
38,242.
38,596.
40,322.
44,310.
48,101.
53,165.
58,693.
63,742.
Nonfood goods-price index (1940=100)
130.
129.
129.
129.
128.
126.
124.
124.
124.
124.
Nonfood goods-retail sales (million 1970 rubles)
34,148.
34,812.
36,760.
37,100.
39,062.
43,607.
48,101.
53,165.
58,693.
63,742.
Soft goods-retail sales (million rubles)
25,708.
25,988.
27,411.
27,687.
28,615.
31,168.
33,720.
37,563.
41,386.
44,967.
Soft goods-price index (1970=100)
107.
106.
105.
105.
105.
102.
101.
101.
101.
100.
Soft goods-retail sales (million 1970 Rubles)
24,135.
24,630.
26,062.
26,441.
27,345.
30,574.
33,524.
37,336.
41,133\
44,794.
Durables and miscellaneous goods
(million 1970 rubles)
10,012.
10.182.
10,697
10,659.
11,717.
13,033.
14,577.
15,829.
17,560.
18,948.
-
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Nonfood goods-retail sales (million rubles)
69,040.
74,117.
79,921.
84,500.
90,043.
97,660.
103,037.
109,378.
115,456.
122,932.
Nonfood goods-price index (1940=100)
124.
123.
122.
122.
122.
122.
122.
122.
123.
125.
Nonfood goods-retail sales (million 1970 rubles)
69,040.
74,720.
81,231.
85,885.
91,519.
99,261.
104,726.
111,171.
116,395.
121,949.
Soft goods-retail sales (million rubles)
47,872.
50,539.
53,317.
55,416.
58,186.
62,709.
65,776.
69,099.
72,006.
75,870.
Soft goods-price index (1970=100)
100.
100.
100.
99.
99.
99.
99.
99.
99.
99.
Soft goods-retail sales (million 1970 rubles)
47,872.
50,696.
53,500.
27,731.
55,811.
58,920.
63,503.
66,603.
69,534.
72,994.
76,751.
Durables and miscellaneous goods
(million 1970 rubles)
21,168.
24,024.
30,074.
32,599.
35,758.
38,124.
41,637.
43,401.
45,197.
1980
Nonfood goods-retail sales (million rubles)
131,033.
Nonfood goods-price index (1940=100)
125.
Nonfood goods-retail sales (million 1970 rubles)
129,985.
Soft goods-retail sales (million rubles)
80,794.
Soft goods-price index (1970=100)
99.
Soft goods-retail sales (million 1970 rubles)
81,735.
Durables and miscellaneous goods
(million 1970 rubles)
48,250.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Appendix E
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index
of Household Services
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
1955
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1956
1957 �
1958
1959
Housing
Urban housing
Endyear stock-useful space
(million square meters)
513.0
535.1
557.0
593.9
632.6
672.0
711.0
763.5
832.0
896.0
Endyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
342.0
356.7
371.3
395.9
421.7
448.0
474.0
509.0
554.7
597.3
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
336.0
349.4
364.0
383.6
408.8
434.9
461.0
491.5
531.8
576.0
Rural housing
Endyear stock-useful space
(million square meters)
725.9
739.8
752.4
754.2
759.8
769.1
784.4
808.4
831.8
872.0
Construction (million square meters)
19.7
20.0
18.9
20.0
23.9
27.9
32.0
45.9
48.2
55.7
Transfers of rural housing to urban
housing (million square meters)
0.0
2.5
2.6
14.4
14.6
14.8
12.8
18.0
20.8
11.3
Retirements (million square meters)
0.0
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.2
Endyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
544.5
554.9
564.3
565.7
569.8
576.8
588.3
606.3
623.8
654.0
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
540.0
549.7
559.6
565.0
567.8
573.3
582.6
597.3
615.1
638.9
Total housing
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
876.0
899.0
923.6
948.6
976.6
1,008.2
1,043.6
1,088.8
1,146.9
1,214.9
Utilities
Household use of electricity
(billion kilowatt-hours)
9.251
10.112
11.078
11.928
12.749
13.686
14.603
15.096
15.955
16.859
Household use of natural gas
(billion cubic meters)
0.216
0.234
0.239
0.258
0.282
0.337
0.453
0.697
1.053
1.327
Urban public housing
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
222.7
231.4
242.7
252.4
262.7
273.0
284.3
299.4
320.8
347.0
Repair and personal care
State-provided services
RSFSR sales (million 1955 rubles)
443.2
398.8
384.1
494.7
RSFSR sales (million rubles) .
392.5
609.8
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
State-provided services (continued) �
USSR sales-constant prices
(million rubles)
USSR sales current prices (million rubles)
USSR sales-comparable prices
(million rubles)
USSR sales (million 1976 rubles)
Privately-provided services
Total sales (million rubles)
3,268.
3,268.
3,268.
3,268.
3,268.
3,268.
3,268.
3,268.
3,268.
3,268.
Housing services (million rubles)
1,387.
1,387.
1,387.
1,387.
1,387.
1,387.
1,387.
1,387.
1,387.
1,387.
Recreation
Movie admissions (million)
1,144.
1,360.
1,562.
1,625.
1,967.
2,505.
2,824.
3,065.
3,392.
3,512.
Theater admissions (million)
68.
69.
70.
71.
77.
78.
77.
79.
83.
89.
Resort visitors (thousand)
3,745.
3,884.
4,102.
4,299.
4,505.
4,866.
4,859.
4,991.
5,564.
5,780.
Hotel employment (thousand)
53.
51.
50.
53.
55.
58.
57.
57.
57.
58.
Hotel employment (million manhours)
115.
110.
108.
114.
118.
124.
119.
116.
115.
114.
Transportation
Rail (billion passenger-kilometers)
88.0
98.5
107.4
118.3
129.1
141.4
142.4
153.4
158.4
164.4
Sea (billion passenger-miles)
671.0
679.0
672.0
800.0
783.0
798.0
748.0
764.0
739.0
756.0
River (billion passenger-kilometers)
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.8
4.0
4.1
Bus (billion passenger-kilometers)
5.2
6.5
8.4
10.5
14.1
20.9
26.4
33.7
42.6
50.8
Air (billion passenger-kilometers)
1.2
1.5
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.8
3.1
4.5
6.4
9.1
Tram (million passengers)
5,157.0
5,379.7
5,612.0
5,853.2
6,104.7
6,367.0
6,416.0
6,812.0
7,195.0
7,450.0
Trolleybus (million passengers)
945.0
1,077.7
1,229.0
1,410.5
1,618.9
1,858.0
2,082.0
2,392.0
2,672.0
2,805.0
Subway (million passengers)
629.0
681.8
739.0
799.9
865.7
937.0
996.0
1,015.0
1,068.0
1,093.0
'Taxi (million paid kilometers)
160.1
210.9
277.9
323.5
424.8
600.3
739.0
978.1
1,148.1
1,275.1
Communications
13,459.4
15,604.0
Postal-number of items (million)
8,732.2
9,856.0
10,885.0
11,471.0
12,533.5
14,695.0
16,486.8
17,623.6
Telephone-long distance calls (million)
103.4
108.0
115.0
119.0
126.0
135.2
143.1
152.0
3,145.0
413.0
163.1
3,360.0
171.7
Telephone-urban telephones (thousand)
2,092.0
2,231.0
2,422.0
2,548.0
2,698.0
2,839.0
2,983.0
383.0
3,520.0
Telephone-rural telephones (thousand)
221.0
244.0
264.0
289.0
326.0
351.0
450.0
503.0
Telegraph-number'of telegrams (million)
153.9
167.0
181.0
195.0
201.0
10.0
0.4
16.4
203.2
13.0
0.8
19.5
206.2
16.2
1.3
22.2
227.0
19.1
1.8
24.8
223.2
230.0
Radio and TV-number of radios
(million)
3.6
4.8
5.8
0.1
11.7
7.3
0.2
13.8
21.7
2.5
27.1
24.7
Radio and TV-number of TV sets
(million)
0.0
0.1
3.6
29.2
Radio and TV-number of radio relay
facilities (million)
9.7
10.6
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Appendix E (continued)
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Housing
Urban housing
Endyear stock-useful space
(million square meters)
612.0
1,017.0
1,074.0
1,130.0
1,182.0
1,238.0
1,290.0
1,350.0
1,410.0
1,469.0
Endyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
638.7
678.0
716.0
753.3
788.0
825.3
860.0
900.0
940.0
979.3
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
618.0
658.3
697.0
734.7
770.7
806.7
842.7
880.0
920.0
959.7
Rural housing
Endyear stock-useful space
(million square meters)
907.0
936.7
962.1
984.8
1,003.6
1,020.6
1,041.1
1,059.7
1,073.9
1,088.4
Construction (million square meters)
50.6
46.6
41.1
39.2
35.2
36.9
38.7
38.4
36.0
35.2
Transfers of rural housing to urban housing
(million square meters)
9.1
7.8
5.4
5.0
3.6
5.9
2.9
3.1
3.8
1.4
Retirements (million square meters)
6.5
9.1
10.3
11.5
12.8
14.1
15.3
16.7
18.0
19.7
Endyear stock-living space
(million square meters
680.2
702.5
721.6
738.6
752.7
765.4
780.8
794.8
805.5
816.3
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
667.1
691.4
712.0
730.1
745.6
759.1
773.1
787.8
800.1
810.9
Total housing
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
1,285.1
1,349.7
1,409.0
1,464.7
1,516.3
1,565.7
1,615.8
1,667.8
1,720.1
1,770.6
Utilities
Household use of electricity
(billion kilowatt-hours)
17.358
19.333
21.652
24.025
26.559
29.133
31.105
33.347
35.997
38.576
Household use of natural gas
(billion cubic meters)
1.800
2.212
2.757
3.369
4.071
4.787
5.361
5.500
6.000
6.800
Urban public housing
586.7
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
374.7
403.0
432.0
462.0
491.7
521.7
553.3
621.7
657.7
- Repair and personal care
State-provided services
RSFSR sales
(million 1955 rubles)
RSFSR sales (million rubles)
676.1
719.5
861.4
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
State-provided services (continued)
USSR sales-constant prices
1,054.2
1,158.2
1,277.3
1,413.7
1,677.3
2,038.3
2,375.0
2,827.3
-
(Million rubles)
USSR sales current prices (million rubles)
1,375.6
-
2,357.5
2,688.9
3,108.3
3,544.4
4,045.0
USSR sales-comparable prices
(million rubles)
2,346.9
2,670.5
3,079.7
3,503.4
3,988.8
USSR sales (million 1976 rubles)
Privately-provided services
Total sales (million rubles)
2,716.
2,284.
2,062.
1,997.
2,069.
2,056.
2,170.
2,111.
2,036.
1,859.
Housing services (million rubles)
1,040.
928.
857.
867.
973.
1,006.
1,081.
1,040.
979.
952.
Recreation
Movie admissions (Onion)
3,611.
3,859.
3,926.
3,877.
4,123.
4,279.
4,192.
4,495.
4,705.
4,656.
Theater admissions (million)
91.
94.
98.
101.
102.
101.
106.
106.
III.
110.
Resort visitors (thousand)
6,182.
6,153.
6,492.
6,609.
7,881.
8,310.
8,748.
9,098.
9,417.
9,831.
Hotel employment (thousand)
63.
66.
67.
70.
73.
76.
78.
82.
85.
88.
Hotel employment (million manhours)
119.
120.
121.
127.
133.
137.
141.
149.
155.
161.
Transportation
._
Rail (billion passenger-kilometers)
170.8
176.3
189.3
192.0
195.1
201.6
219.4
234.4
254.1
261.3
Sea (billion passenger-miles)
719.0
737.0
717.0
782.0
719.0
796.0
887.0
897.0
952.0
942.0
River (billion passenger-kilometers)
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
Bus (billion passenger-kilometers)
61.0
69.3
82.2
95.2
107.7
120.5
137.0
153.0
168.5
183.0
Air (billion passenger-kilometers)
12.1
16.4
201
25.3
10.9
38.1
45.1
53.5
62.1
71.5
Tram (million passengers)
7,842.1
7,780.0
7,937.0
8,103.0
8,221.0
8,241.8
8,192.6
8,130.6
7,971.3
7,831.5
Trolleybus (million passengers)
3,054.6
3,139.0
3,353.0
3,638.0
3,947.0
4,298.0
4,712.8
5,039.3
5,330.6
5,689.4
Subway (million passengers)
1,148.3
1,233.0
1,301.0
1,441.0
1,569.0
1,652.4
1,822.2
1,947.3
2,072.0
2,176.2
Taxi (million paid kilometers)
1,576.0
2,038.0
2,569.3
3,012.0
3185.0
3,515.0
3,832.7
4,258.9
4,835.6
5,402.9
Communications
Postal-number of items (million)
18,991.3
20,071.4
21,301.7
23,109.4
25,598.3
28,461.9
31,837.9
35,358.9
37,225.3
39,842.8
Telephone-long distance calls (million)
185.0
196.9
210.0
218.2
226.9
256.5
283.0
313.9
342.8
385.7
Telephone-urban telephones (thousand)
3,753.0
4,021.0
4,350.0
4,475.0
4,864.0
5,490.0
6,129.0
_
6,867.0
7,677.0
8,570.0
Telephone-rural telephones (thousand)
548.0
598.0
650.0
814.0
893.0
909.0
986.0
1,075.0
1,192.0
1,324.0
Telegraph-number of telegrams (million)
240.9
245.0
252.2
254.5
257.3
273.2
299.8
322.8
338.6
356.9
Radio and TV-number of radios
30.5
32.8
35.2
36.7
38.2
39.8
41.8
44.5
46.7
(million)
27.8
Radio and TV-number of TV sets
(million)
4.8
6.5
8.3
10.5
12.8
15.7
19.0
22.7
26.8
30.7
Radio and TV-number of radio relay facilities
(million)
30.8
32.1
33.1
33.8
34.6
35.6
37.0
38.9
41.0
43.4
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Appendix E (continued)
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1974
1976
1977
1978
1979
Housing
Urban housing
Endyear stock-useful space
(million square meters)
1,529.0
1,594.0
1,661.0
1,730.0
1,800.0
1,867.0
1,932.0
2,001.0
2,070.0
2,134.0
Endyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
1,019.3
1,062.7
1,107.3
1,153.3
1,200.0
1,244.7
1,288.0
1,334.0
1,380.0
1,422.7
Midye.ar stock-living space
(million square meters)
999.3
1,041.0
1,085.0
1,130.3
1,176.7
1,222.3
1,266.3
1,311.0
1,357.0
1,401.3
Rural Housing
Endyear stock-useful space
, (million square meters)
1,100.9
1,110.8
1,119.2
1,127.1
1,134.2
1,143.2
1,148.6
1,154.5
1,158.7
1,163.4
Construction (million square meters)
34.7
34.7
33.2
32.9
33.0
33.6
30.3
30.6
30.2
29.4
Transfers of rural housing to urban housing
(million square meters
1.6
2.8
2.5
2.7
3.3
1.9
2.1
1.7
2.9
1.6
Retirements (million square meters)
20.7
22.0
22.2
22.4
22.5
22.7
22.9
23.0
23.1
23.2
Endyear stock-living space
(million square meters
825.7
833.1
839.4
845.3
850.6
857.4
861.4
865.9
869.0
872.5
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
821.0
829.4
836.3
842.4
848.0
854.0
859.4
863.7
867.5
870.8
Total housing
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
1,820.3
1,870.4
1,921.3
1,972.7
2,024.6
2,076.3
2,125.7
2,174.7
2,224.5
2,272.1
Utilities
Household use of electricity
(billion kilowatt-hours)
41.200
44.327
47.298
50.249
53.391
56.600
60.568
62.675
65.499
67.477
Household use of natural gas
(billion cubic meters)
7.400
8.000
8.900
9.800
10.700
11.600
12.500
12.975
13.957
15.247
Urban public housing
Midyear stock-living space
(million square meters)
695.3
734.7
775.0
816.7
859.7
902.3
943.7
985.3
1,028.0
1,069.3
Repair and personal Care
State-provided services
RSFSR sales (million 1955 rubles)
RSFSR sales (million rubles)
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State-provided services (continued)
USSR sales-constant prices
(million rubles)
USSR sales-current prices (million rubles)
4,480.7
4,838.8
5,159.6
USSR sales-comparable prices
(million rubles)
4,408.1
4,750.0
5,144.9
5,579.6
6,011.6
6,433.9
6,817.8
USSR sales (million 1976 rubles)
6,243.2
6,666.5
7,039.7
7,607.1
8,199.
Privately-provided services
Total sales (million rubles)
2,000.
2,000.
2,000.
2,000.
2,000.
2,000.
2,000.
2,000.
2,000.
2,000.
Housing services (million rubles)
1,071.
1,071.
1,071.
1,071.
1,071.
1,071.
1,071.
1,071.
1,071.
1,071.
Recreation
Movie admissions (million)
4,652.
4,656.
4,569.
4,583.
4,567.
4,497.
4,211.
4,080.
4,155.
4,151.
Theater admissions (million)
111.
114.
114.
115.
116.
117.
117.
116.
118.
119.
Resort visitors (thousand)
10,138.
10,594.
11,069.
11,517.
11,882.
12,344.
12,875.
13,373.
13,682.
14,154.
Hotel employment (thousand)
92.
96.
101.
106.
110.
114.
117.
127.
127.
131.
Hotel employment (million manhours)
167.
177.
185.
192.
200.
208.
213.
220.
230.
237.
Transportation
Rail (billion passenger-kilometers)
265.4
274.6
285.8
296.6
306.3
312.5
315.1
322.2
332.1
335.3
Sea (billion passenger-miles)
859.0
928.0
1,012.0
1,048.0
1.127.0
1.153.0
1,106.0
1,475.0
1,/65.0
1,326.0
River (billion passenger-kilometers)
5.4
5.7
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.0
5.6
5.8
5.8
Bus (billion passenger-kilometers)
202.5
215.8
235.6
253.9
279.1
303.6
325.3
344.5
361.5
376.0
Air (billion passenger-kilometers)
78.2
88.8
, 95.9
98.8
108.8
122.6
130.8
127.5
140.1
151.0
Tram (million passengers)
7,962.1
7,975.1
7,951.7
7,997.5
8,074.2
8,235.4
8,358.0
8,371.5
8,384.1
8,296.4
Trolleybus (million passengers)
6,122.2
6,587.8
6,973.9
7,298.3
7,638.5
7,963.3
8,355.0
8,634.1
8,810.8
8,945.4
Subway (million passengers)
2,294.4
2,443.3
2,591.7
2,727.0
2,836.3
2,972.0
3,228.6
3,355.6
3,515.0
3,675.3
Taxi (million paid kilometers)
5,951.0
6,570.4
7,179.5
7,694.7
8,443.9
9,291.1
10,097.0
6,870.0
6,395.0
7,239.0
Communications
Postal-number of items (million)
42,092.7
44,288.0
46,298.0
47,872.0
49,280.0
51,008.0
51,661.0
52,174.0
52,385.0
53,296.0
Telephone-long distance calls (million)
430.5
479.0
535.0
604.0
684.0
768.0
868.0
960.0
1,061.0
1,160.0
Telephone-urban telephones (thousand)
9,504.0
10,436.0
11,380.0
12,450.0
13,589.0
14,694.0
15,712.0
16,690.0
17,752.0
18,855.0
Telephone-rural telephones (thousand)
1,483.0
1,642.0
1,819.0
2,013.0
2,236.0
2,473.0
2,710.0
2,948.0
3,192.0
3,440.0
Telegraph-number of telegrams (million)
364.6
372.0
385.0
404.0
421.0
443.0
458.0
477.0
491.0
511.0
Radio and TV-number of radios
(million)
48.6
50.8
53.2
54.8
57.1
59.8
61.5
63.3
64.7
66.2
Radio and TV-number of TV sets
(million)
34.8
39.3
45.4
49.2
52.5
55.2
57.6
59.9
62.5
64.3
Radio and TV-number of radio relay
facilities (million)
46.2
49.1
52.1
55.5
59.0
62.7
66.4
70.2
74.0
77.8
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Appendix E (continued)
1980
1970 = 100
Housing
Urban housing
Endyear stock�useful space 2,200.0
(million square meters)
Endyear stock�living space 1,466.7
(million square meters)
Midyear stock�living space 1,444.7
(million square meters)
Rural housing
Endyear stock�useful space 1,168.6
(million square meters)
Construction (million square meters) 30.0
Transfers of rural housing to urban housing 1.5
(million square meters)
Retirements (million square meters) 23.3
Endyear stock�living space 876.4
(million square meters)
Midyear stock�living space 874.5
(million square meters)
Total housing
Midyear stock�living space 2,319.1
(million square meters)
Utilities
Household use of electricity 70.572
(billion kilowatt-hours)
Household use of natural gas 16.313
(billion cubic meters)
Urban public housing
Midyear stock living space 1,110.0
(million square meters)
Repair and personal care
State-provided services
RSFSR sales (million 1955 rubles)
RSFSR sales (million rubles)
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State-provided services (continued)
USSR sales�constant prices (million rubles)
USSR sales�current prices (million rubles)
USSR sales (million 1976 rubles) 8,822.9
Privately-provided services
Total sales (million rubles) 2,000.
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Housing services (million rubles) 1,071.
Recreation
Movie admissions (million) 4,244.
Theater admissions (million) 122.
Resort visitors (thousand) 14,546.
Hotel employment (thousand) 134.
Hotel employment (million manhours) 244.
Transportation
Rail (billion passenger-kilometers) 331.2
Sea (billion passenger-miles) 1,350.0
River (billion passenger-kilometers) 6.0
Bus (billion passenger-kilometers) 389.8
Air (billion passenger-kilometers) 160.6
Tram (million passengers)
8,255.0
Trolleybus (million passeners)
9,035.0
Subway (million passengers)
3,823.0
Taxi (million paid kilometers) 8,252.5
Communications
Postal�number of items (million) 54,307.0
Telephone�long distance calls (million) 1,264.0
Telephone�urban telephones (thousand) 20,043.0
Telephone�rural telephones (thousand) 3,657.0
Telegraph�number of telegrams (million) 531.0
Radio and TV�number of radios 67.7
(million)
Radio and TV�number of TV sets 66.6
(million)
Radio and TV�number of radio relay 81.6
facilities (million)
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Appendix F
Data Used in the Derivation of the Index
of Communal Services
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
co
-P.
1959
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1954
1956
1957
1958
Education
Personnel services
Education and culture-employment
(thousands)
3,315.
3,434.
3,553.
3,647.
3,817.
3,977.
4,103.
4,250.
4,378.
4,556.
Culture-employment (thousands)
279.
289.
299.
307.
322.
335.
346.
358.
369.
384.
Education-employment (thousands)
3,036.
3,145.
3,254.
3,340.
3,495.
3,642.
3,757.
3,892.
4,009.
4,172.
Education and culture-manhours (million)
5,467.9
5,653.0
5,837.2
5,983.8
6,256.4
6,510.0
6,597.8
6,720.6
6,889.6
7,033.0
Culture-manhours (million)
584.8
604.5
624.0
639.5
668.1
694.6
701.6
712.3
729.9
739.0
Education-manhours (million)
4,883.1
5,048.4
5,213.2
5,344.2
5,588.3
5,815.4
5,896.2
6,008.4
6,159.8
6,293.0
Other current outlays
Kindergartens
Outlays net of investment (million rubles)
332.1
316.7
310.3
301.6
312.1
355.9
392.3
457.8
512.9
577.7
Other current outlays as a percent of total
outlays
72.6
72.5
71.3
68.4
67.8
68.2
68.1
66.8
66.6
66.4
Other current outlays (million rubles)
294.0
280.2
280.2
269.6
282.1
317.1
351.1
401.6
451.0
514.4
General education
Republic budget non-investment outlays
(million rubles)
2,359.0
2,446.5
2,469.6
2,508.2
2,515.8
2,525.3
3,555.0
3,733.3
2,829.2
3,032.0
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
529.2
496.3
447.1
520.2
399.1
407.9
425.0
476.7
501.3
596.8
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total outlays
22.4
20.3
18.1
16.8
15.9
16.2
16.6
17.4
17.7
19.7
USSR outlays, less kindergartens
(million rubles)
3,040.0
3,129.2
3,165.1
3,223.4
3,272.8
3,354.2
3,452.7
3,762.3
3,868.0
4,435.2
USSR investment outlays, less kindergartens
(million rubles)
42.2
40.8
37.7
55.1
74.8
80.3
87.0
123.8
157.2
307.7
USSR outlays net of investment, less
� kindergartens (million rubles)
2,997.8
3,088.4
3,127.4
3,168.3
3,198.0
3,273.9
3,365.7
3,638.5
3,821.8
4,127.5
USSR other current outlays (million rubles)
598.0
562.3
510.0
480.3
457.8
471.3
494.6
544.7
586.3
698.7
Higher education (Vuzy)
Republic budget outlays net of investment and
stipends (million rubles)
158.9
157.2
160.3
166.5
175.8
251.7
269.0
285.7
200.3
672.2
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Higher education (continued)
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
28.4
28.6
28.1
29.1
30.0
44.1
48.0
51.9
55.1
132.1
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total outlays
17.9
18.2
17.5
17.5
17.1
17.5
17.8
18.2
18.4
19.7
Specialized education (tekhnikums)
Republic budget outlays net of investment and
stipends (million rubles)
153.0
153.0
159.4
1,164.3
181.6
186.5
234.6
316.2
303.4
316.3
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
38.6
38.7
41.5
43.1
46.4
51.0
70.9
92.9
87.3
91.4
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total outlays
25.2
25.3
26.0
26.2
25.6
27.3
30.2
29.4
28.8
28.9
Cadre preparation- Vuzy, technikums and trade
schools
USSR total outlays (million rubles)
1,807.1
1,747.2
1,799.4
1,911.7
2,237.6
2,307.9
2,401.0
2,396.0
2,333.3
2,371.2
Investment (million rubles)
35.0
30.6
36.8
42.8
78.9
88.0
81.2
91.7
97.0
98.2
Outlays net of investment (million rubles)
1,772.1
1,716.6
1,762.6
1,868.9
2,158.7
2,219.9
2,319.8
2,304.3
2,236.3
2,273.0
Stipends (million rubles)
187.0
-
295.2
317.7
363.1
341.2
584.0
Outlays net of investment and stipends
(million rubles)
1,586.5
1,649.0
1,714.0
1,781.5
2,851.7
1,925.1
2,002.7
1,941.8
1,895.5
1,689.6
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
67.0
67.3
69.6
72.2
76.4
95.1
118.9
144.8
142.4
223.5
Republic budget outlays net of investment and
stipends (million rubles)
311.9
310.2
319.7
330.8
357.4
438.2
503.6
601.9
602.7
988.5
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total
21.5
21.7
21.8
21.8
21.4
21.7
23.6
24.1
23.6
22.6
USSR other current outlays (million rubles)
340.8
372.4
383.7
407.9
461.5
417.8
472.8
467.1
447.9
382.0
All education-total
Other current outlays (million rubles)
1,232.8
1,214.9
1,173.9
1,157.8
1,201.4
1,206.2
1,318.5
1,423.5
1,491.1
1,595.1
Price index for material expenditures
(1970=100)
103.3
103.3
97.6
93.5
94.2
90.1
90.5
93.2
93.1
93.6
Other current outlays (million 1970 rubles)
1,267.2
1,248.5
1,277.0
1,315.0
1,354.6
1,421.9
1,547.9
1,621.8
1,701.6
1,808.9
Health
Employment-thousands
2,051.
2,139.
2,226.
2,308.
2,468.
2,627.
2,736.
2,892.
3,059.
5,602.1
3,245.
5,860.0
Manhours-million
3,886.8
4,047.7
4,206.1
4,356.9
4,655.5
4,950.7
5,098.6
5,314.8
Republic budget outlays net of investment
(million rubles)
1,909.1
1,929.8
1,977.4
2,130.6
2,215.3
2,433.9
2,871.1
3,182.5
3,456.4
3,740.3
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
825.4
799.6
803.1
881.6
882.6
962.5
1,057.4
1,203.6
1,286.0
37.9
1,395.4
38.3
Republic budget other current outlays as percent
of total outlays
43.0
2,144.
41.1
2,170.
40.3
41.1
2,410.
39.7
39.6
37.0
38.1
USSR outlays net of investment (million rubles)
2,232.
2,857.
3,078.
3,517.
3,770.
3,998.
4,297.
USSR other current outlays (million rubles)
922.0
103.3
892.9
900.0
991.1
1,135.1
1,220.3
1,302.3
1,436.5
1,515.3
1,647.4
Price index for material expenditures (1970=100)
103.3
97.6
979.0
93.5
94.2
90.1
90.5
93.2
93.1
93.6
Other current outlays (million 1970 rubles)
947.8
917.6
1,125.7
1,279.9
1,438.6
1,528.8
1,636.7
1,729.2
1,868.2
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Appendix F (continued)
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Education
Personnel Services
Education and culture-employment
(thousands)
4,803.
5,165.
5,521.
5,835.
6,235.
6,600.
6,902.
7,187.
7,531.
7,811.
Culture-employment (thousands)
405.
435.
465.
492.
523.
556.
580.
636.
699.
759.
Education-employment (thousands)
4,398.
4,730.
5,056.
5,343.
5,681.
6,044.
6,322.
6,551.
6,832.
7,052.
Education and culture-manhours (million)
7,200.8
7,534.2
8,053.5
8,498.7
9,066.7
9,595.0
10,057.7
10,481.3
10,987.3
11,399.0
Culture-manhours (million)
752.0
776.0
825.7
870.5
929.5
981.4
1,028.4
1,131.0
1,245.7
1,355.0
Education-manhours (million)
6,468.8
6,758.2
7,227.7
7,628.2
8,137.2
8,613.6
9,029.3
9,350.3
9,741.6
10,044.0
Other current outlays
Kindergartens
Total outlays net of investment (million rubles)
659.8
781.9
946.5
1,124.1
1,333.8
1,694.6
1,883.2
2,034.6
2,295.6
2,494.8
Other current outlays as a percent of total
outlays
66.9
65.9
66.4
66.9
65.3
58.9
57.8
57.1
53.0
53.4.
Other current outlays (million rubles)
621.5
700.0
850.9
1,012.2
1,189.1
1,317.1
1,424.5
1,509.8
1,584.0
1,714.4
General education
Republic budget non-investment outlays
(million rubles)
3,314.5
3,688.7
4,-0.1
4,280.6
5,650.4
5,637.8
5,813.4
5,982.1
6,421.1
6,638.5
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
699.2
799.4
894.1
966.3
1,022.8
1,077.3
1,061.2
1,106.7
1,173.1
1,208.6
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total outlays
21.1
21.7
22.4
22.6
22.0
19.1
18.3
18.5
18.3
18.2
USSR outlays, less kindergartens
(million rubles)
5,-2.2
5,614.2
6,207.9
6,730.3
7,374.7
8,935.6
USSR investment outlays, less kindergartens
(million rubles)
421.0
512.8
573.3
596.7
585.3
621.3
USSR outlays net of investment, less
kindergartens (million rubles)
4,581.2
5,101.4
5,634.6
6,133.6
6,789.4
8,314.3
8,750.8
9,125.2
9,894.3
10,364.9
USSR other current outlays (million rubles)
827.2
936.1
1,047.9
1,130.8
1,199.9
1,264.9
1,253.6
1,311.8
1,388.2
1,432.8
Higher education (Vuzy)
Republic budget outlays net of investment and
stipends (million rubles)
702.0
743.0
8-.9
755.5
795.2
877.5
931.9
875.6
965.8
1,039.8
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
137.4
145.9
154.8
143.0
151.0
159.3
168.4
154.8
170.6
183.6
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Higher education (continued)
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total outlays
19.6
19.6
19.3
18.9
19.0
18.2
18.1
17.7
17.7
17.5
Specialized education (tekhnikums)
Republic budget outlays net of investment and
stipends (million rubles)
320.7
335.6
357.8
383.5
415.0
516.9
449.1
466.2
514.5
544.5
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
90.1
90.0
94.5
98.9
102.7
111.3
101.4
96.6
106.6
112.3
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total outlays
28.1
26.8
26.4
25.8
24.7
21.5
22.6
20.7
20.7
20.6
Cadre preparation-Vuzy, tekhnikums and trade
schools
USSR total outlays (million rubles)
2,402.5
2,513.6
2,723.2
2,888.5
3,081.9
3,451.8
Investment (million rubles)
114.7
115.0
124.4
152.4
157.2
-
-
-
-
Outlays net of investment (million rubles)
2,287.8
2,398.6
2,598.8
2,736.1
2,924.7
3,251.1
3,562.1
3,948.4
4,290.5
4,597.7
Stipends (million rubles)
550.9
554.2
602.2
581.7
623.4
683.8
618.5
634.9
680.5
736.5
Outlays net of investment and stipends
(million rubles)
1,737.5
1,845.2
2,005.4
2,163.8
2,309.9
2,573.9
2,950.0
3,322.5
3,617.0
3,866.5
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
227.5
235.9
249.3
241.9
253.7
270.6
269.8
251.4
277.2
295.8
Republic budget outlays net of investment and
stipends (million rubles)
1,022.7
1,078.6
1,158.7
1,139.0
1,210.2
1,394.4
1,381.0
1,341.8
1,480.3
1,584.3
Republic budget other current outlays as
a percent of total
22.2
21.9
21.5
21.2
21.0
19.4
19.5
18.7
18.7
18.7
USSR other current outlays (million rubles)
386.5
403.6
431.5
459.5
484.2
499.5
576.3
622.5
677.3
721.9
All education-total
Other current outlays (million rubles)
1,835.2
2,039.7
2,330.3
2,602.6
2,873.2
3,081.5
3,254.5
3,444.1
3,649.6
3,869.1
Price index for material expenditures
(1970 = 100)
95.3
95.4
97.7
98.3
101.1
102.6
103.2
104.3
104.7
105.0
Other current outlays (million 1970 rubles)
2,045.4
2,269.9
2,532.2
2,810.4
3,017.0
3,189.6
3,347.8
3,505.3
3,702.8
3,912.7
Health
Employment-thousands ^
3,461.
3,677.
3,818.
3,933.
4,082.
4,277.
4,427.
4,545.
4,747.
4,927.
Manhours-million
6,133.7
6,378.3
6,622.9
6,815.1
7,090.2
7,401.4
7,679.2
7,894.3
8,254.0
8,576.0
Republic budget outlays net of investment
(million rubles)
4,076.9
4,381.8
4,642
4,937.9
5,321.5
6,281.1
6,609.9
6,940.8
7,607.0
8,002.1
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
1,567.8
1,680.3
1,810.7
1,949.1
2,073.0
2,212.3
2,293.7
2,392.5
2,500.4
2,603.6
Republic budget other current outlays as
percent of total outlays
39.4
39.1
39.7
40.2
39.7
36.0
35.5
35.4
33.8
33.6
USSR other current outlays (million rubles)
1,827.6
1,886.4
1,890.2
2,036.2
2,162.9
2,311.2
2,427.7
2,533.7
2,642.7
2,751.6
Price index for material expenditures
(1970 = 100)
95.3
95.4
97.7
98.3
101.1
102.6
103.2
104.3
104.7
105.0
Other current outlays (million 1970 rubles)
2,036.9
2,099.4
2,054.0
2,198.8
2,271.2
2,392.2
2,497.4
2,578.7
2,681.2
2,782.6
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Appendix F (continued)
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
t..a
VZ.
Co
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1974
1976
1977
1978
1979
Education
Personnel Services
Education and culture-employment
(thousands).
8,070.
8,309.
8,531.
8,759.
8,977.
9,191.
9,392.
9,622.
9,915.
10,128.
Culture-employment (thousands)
824.
876.
915.
964.
1,014.
1,056.
1,097.
1,161.
1,209.
1,235.
Education-employment (thousands)
7,246.
7,433.
7,616.
7,795.
7,963.
8,135.
8,295.
8,461.
8,706.
8,893.
Education and culture--manhours (million)
11,811.2
12,211.3
12,519.7
12,794.0
13,135.4
13,931.5
13,725.7
14,040.8
14,468.3
14,778.0
Culture-manhours (million)
1,467.3
1,568.7
1,635.3
1,711.9
1,304.6
1,376.4
1,949.2
2,058.6
2,143.4
2,189.0
Education-manhours (million)
10,344.0
10,642.6
10,884.4
11,082.1
11,330.9
11,555.1
11,776.5
11,982.2
12,324.9
12,589.0
Other current outlays
Kindergartens
Total outlays net of investment (million rubles)
2,600.4
2,755.8
2,922.9
3,167.6
3,328.5
3,513.3
3,713.0
3,979.0
4,277.0
14,518.0
Other current outlays as a percent of
total outlays
53.0
52.9
51.7
50.4
50.4
51.4
51.4
51.4
51.4
51.4
Other current outlays (million rubles)
1,768.1
1,875.8
1,928.5
2,028.7
2,135.5
2,292.3
2,422.6
2,596.3
2,790.6
2,947.7
General education
Republic budge1 non-investment outlays
(million rubles)
1,768.1
1,875.8
1,928.5
2,028.7
2,135.5
2,292.3
2,422.6
2,596.3
2,790.6
2,947.5
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
1,232.5
1,276.5
1,310.9
1,347.7
1,400.8
1,462.0
1,491.9
1,515.5
1,537.8
1,567.9
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total outlays
18.0
17.9
17.4
16.5
16.7
17.2
17.2
17.3
17.2
17.3
USSR outlays, less kindergartens'
(million rubles)
USSR investment outlays, less kindergardens
(million rubles)
USSR outlays net of investment, less
kindergartens (million rubles)
10,748.8
11,224.6
11,880.3
12,910.6
13,367.5
13,853.7
14,283.0
14.722.0
15,326.0
15,728.0
USSR other current outlays (million rubles)
1,464.3
1,517.4
1,559.3
1,604.0
1,678.1
1,775.2
1,819.3
1,858.3
1,901.4
1,944.8
Higher education (Vuzy)
Outlays net of investment and stipends
(million rubles)
1,097.8
1,151.6
1,221.5
1,285.4
1,354.5
1,420.6
1,485.6
1,561.1
1,648.6
1,717.9
Other current outlays (million rubles)
192.1
195.6
205.3
209.5
223.8
234.5
245.2
257.6
272.1
283.5
Other current outlays as a percent of
total outlays
17.5
17.0
16.8
16.3
16.5
16.5
16.5
16.5
16.5
16.5
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Specialized education (tekhnikums)
Republic budget outlays net of investment and
stipends (million rubles)
576.4
605.8
650.9
720.4
747.6
764.0
788.8
818.2
842.5
854.1
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
119.0
125.9
131.5
135.9
142.4
146.2
150.9
156.6
161.2
163.5
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total outlays
20.6
20.8
20.2
18.9
19.0
19.1
19.1
19.1
19.1
19.1
Cadre preparation- Vuzy, tekhnikums and trade
schools
USSR total outlays (million rubles)
Investment (million rubles)
Outlays net of investment (million rubles)
4,853.6
5,145.8
5,572.4
6,177.2
6,630.3
7,019.4
7,387.0
7,734.0
8,108.0
8,393.0
Stipends (million rubles)
765.5
800.6
1,068.8
1,300.8
1,373.8
1,432.5
1,507.4
1,578.2
1,654.5
1,712.6
Outlays net of investment and stipends
(million rubles)
4,091.7
4,347.2
4,504.8
4,877.6
5,257.5
5,587.5
5,880.2
6,156.4
6,454.1
6,681.0
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
311.1
321.5
336.8
345.4
366.2
380.7
396.1
414.2
433.3
447.0
Republic budget outlays net of investment and
stipends (million rubles)
1,674.2
1,757.4
1,872.4
2,005.8
2,102.1
2,184.6
2,274.4
2,379.3
2,491.1
2,572.0
Republic budget other current outlays as a
percent of total
18.6
18.3
18.0
17.2
17.4
17.4
17.4
_ 17.4
17.4
17.4
USSR other current outlays (million rubles)
760.3
795.3
810.3
839.9
915.9
973.7
1,024.1
1,071.7
1,122.6
1,161.1
All education-total
4,188.5
4,298.1
4,472.7
4,729.5
5,041.2
5,265.9
5,526.3
5,814.7
6,053.6
Other current outlays (million rubles)
3,992.7
Price index for material expenditures
(1970=100)
106.2
108.3
112.3
113.2
114.3
116.5
117.8
119.0
120.8
123.0
Other current outlays (million 1970 rubles)
3,992.7
4,109.0
4,064.7
4,194.8
4,392.6
4,597.4
4,746.4
4,931.0
5,110.9
5,223.4
Health
Employment-thousands
5,080.
5,239.
5,386.
5,522. .
5,655.
5,769.
5,878.
5,962.
6,033.
6,197.
Manhours-million
8,832.9
9,136.1
9,382.9
9,587.9
9,831.0
10,020.1
10,209.7
10,344.6
10,467.8
10,752.0
Republic budget outlays net of investment
(million rubles)
8,675.3
9,030.9
9,418.0
9.856.6
10,289.7
10,760.2
11,144.0
11,692.8
12,656.1
13,159.2
Republic budget other current outlays
(million rubles)
2,936.5
3,012.3
3,161.9
3,272.2
3,422.0
3,578.6
3,706.2
3,888.8
4,209.0
4,376.4
Republic budget other current outlays as a share
of total outlays
� 35.4
35.2
35.3
34.7
34.9
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
USSR outlays net of investment (million rubles)
8,785.0
9,033.
9,441.
9.950.
10,375.
10,823.
11,209.
11,761.
12,730.
13,236.
USSR other current outlays (million rubles)
3,105.7
3,179.9
3,337.3
3,455.9
3,619.0
3,787.8
3,922.8
4,116.1
4,455.1
4,632.2
Price index for material expenditures
(1970=100)
106.2
108.3
112.3
113.2
114.3
116.5
117.8
119.0
120.8
123.0
Other current outlays (million 1970 rubles)
3,105.7
3,119.6
3,156.1
3,241.2
3,361.2
3,454.3
3,535.8
3,672.7
3,915.8
3,999.3
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Appendix F (continued)
1980
Education
Personnel Services
Education and culture�employment 10,475.
(thousands)
Culture�employment (thousands) 1,265.
Education�employment (thousands) 9,210.
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Education and culture�manhours (million) 15,285.5
Culture�manhours (million) 2,242.7
Education�manhours (million) 13,042.8
Other current outlays
Kindergartens
Total outlays net of investment (million rubles) 4,775.0
Other current outlays as a percent of 51.4
total outlays
Other current outlays (million rubles) 3,115.5
General education
Republic budget non-investment outlays 9,263.5
(million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays 1,608.2
(million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays as 17.4
a percent of total outlays
USSR outlays, less kindergartens
(million rubles)
USSR investment outlays, less kindergartens
(million rubles)
USSR outlays net of investment, less 16,121.2
kindergartens (million rubles)
USSR other Current outlays (million rubles) 1,969.8
Higher education (Vuzy)
Republic budget outlays net of investment and 1,760.9
stipends (million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays 290.6
(million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays as a 16.5
percent of total outlays
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Specialized education (tekhnikums)
Republic budget outlays net of investment and 875.4
stipends (million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays 167.4
(million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays as a 19.1
percent of total outlays
Cadre preparation� Vuzy, tekhnikums and trade
schools
USSR total outlays (million rubles)
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV
Investment (million rubles)
Outlays net of investment (million rubles) 8,602.9
Stipends (million rubles) 1,790.8
General education stipends (million rubles) 0.3
Outlays net of investment and stipends 6,812.7
(million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays 458.0
(million rubles)
Republic budget outlays net of investment and 2,636.3
stipends (million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays as 17.4
a percent of total
USSR other current outlays (million rubles) 1,183.6
All education-total
Other current outlays (million rubles) 6,268.8
Price index for material expenditure 126.1
(1970 = 100)
Other current outlays (million 1970 rubles) 5,278.8
Health
Employment�ftousands 6,250.
Manhours�million 10,844.4
Republic budget outlays net of investment 13,554.0
(million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays 4,507.8
(million rubles)
Republic budget other current outlays as 35.0
percent of total outlays
USSR outlays net of investment (million rubles) 13,633.1
USSR other current outlays (million rubles) 4,771.3
Price index for material expenditure (1970 = 100) 126.1
Other current outlays (million 1970 rubles) 4,017.8
1.Z170 1.Z900 6/LO/6 1.0Z :aseaia JOI pancuddV