[SANITIZED]LATIN AMERICA REVIEW 13 JANUARY 1984 - 1984/01/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06628113
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: January 13, 1984

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13 ..1.anuaty 1984
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Articles
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1.atin America
Rotor.
13 Januar 1984
�Seer.
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Argentina: The Montoneros and the Nen Gmernment tut
Jay Gr 151-7231
The Montoneros, the Peronist leftwing terrorist organization
decimated by security forces in the late 1970s, arc trying to make a
political comeback, but they have little prospect for significant gains
any time soon. 3.5(c)
Briefs
Articles hare been coordinated as appropriate with other offices within CIA.
Comments and queries regarding this publication may he directed to the Chief,
Production Staff. Office cif African and Latin American Analysis. telephone
3.5(c)
763
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ALA LAR 84-001
-4 January MN
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Argentina: The Montoneros
and the New Government
3.3(b)(1)
The Montoneros, the Pcronist leftwing terrorist
organization that was decimated by security forces in
thc late 1970s. are trying to make a political
comeback. In the wake of President Alfonsin's
stunning defeat of the Pcronist party and the overall
poor showing of the left in the 30 October general
elections. Montonero leaders have apparently decided
against the use of violence�at least for now. The
Montoncros reportedly intend to focus on more
conventional tactics, such as infiltrating labor and
political organizations and strengthening their
position within the Peronist party. Their goals arc to
move the Peronist party leftward and to splinter
Alfonsin's electoral coalition, but we see little
prospect for significant gains on either front any time
soon.
The. Montoneros, who first emerged in 1970, were
used by party chief Juan Peron against the incumbent
military regime. They split with Peron over tactics
and ideology after he became President in 1973,
however, and were banished from party ranks in 1975
by his widow and successor, Isabel. Although they
became one of Argentina's most notorious terrorist
groups, they were soundly defeated after the military
took over in 1976; those not captured or killed were
forced into exile. Claiming to represent the true voice
of Peronism, they dubbed their group the Peronist
Montonero Party and embarked on a propaganda
campaign against the military.
officials recently estimated there were 500 abroad and
300 in country, but we believe this count is
considerably exaggerated
3.5(c)
The Election Impact
The Montoneros apparently saw the presidential
election campaign last year as an opportunity to
reassert themselves within the Pcronist party.r
exiled terrorist
leader Mario Firmenich contacted then Army
commander Nicolaides in an effort to negotiate a
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3.5(c)
return to legitimate political activity. On several
occasions, he and his colleagues reentered Argentina
clandestinely. for brief visits.
Meanwhile. Montoneros inside the
country interrupted television broadcasts a number of
times with political messages backing leftist Pcronist
candidates. Sympathizers also distributed pamphlets
criticizing the military
The impressive size of Alfonsin's mandate, coupled
with the poor showing by the left, seems to have
convinced most Montour� leaders that political
action now provides the best means for achieving their
goals. although some undisciplined factions may still
resort to violence on occasion. A secret Montonero
assessment.
Concluded that the new
President's program had effectively co-opted potential
leftist supporters. The document further revealed the
Montoneros' fear that terrorism might prompt a
military backlash, thus threatening the civilians'
tenure in office. According to another document, the
Montoneros planned to speed up infiltration of leftist
political and labor organizations and hoped to mak:
inroads into rural and agricultural unions as well.
They intend to mobilize support for job actions should
the new government, as expected, turn down demands
for large wage hikes. Furthermore, they are seeking
ways to split Alfonsin's diverse electoral coalition.
Since Alfonsin's inauguration in early December, the
Montoneros' effort to increase their influence
reportedly has intensified. Their main target,
is the radical
left wing of the Pcronist movement�the Peronist
Intransigent Mobilization Party�led by well-known
Montonero sympathizer Vicente Saadi.
his leftwing newspaper, La
Vo:, is funded by the Montoneros and, as of at least
mid-1983, his personal income was subsidized by the
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group. The leftists therefore apparently believe he will
use his newly won Senate seat and his post as head of
the Peronist bloc in the Senate to further their
interests
3.5(c)
Similarly. the Montoncros have stepped up their
public criticism of the Peronist party's rightwing
leadership, blaming it for the party's defeat
the
Montoneros intend to try to unseat them and to
challenge moderates for control of the party.
To further their objectives, exiled Monionero leaders
prepared to return to Argentina soon after the
election. The US defense attache in La Paz reported
that 20 to 30 members met overtly there to discuss
reentry. In December, following an open letter to
Alfonsin announcing the organization's intention to
pursue peaceful political objectives, two Montour�
leaders�former governors Ricardo Obregon Cano
and Oscar Bidegain�arrived in Buenos Aires.
her powers as nominal president of the movement. has
recently reasserted her authority and reaffirmed her
rightwing supporters as the party's leaders.
She intends to contain Saadi. as
well as other elected leftists, by helping to shape anti-
left legislation.
3.5(c)
The Ntontoneros probably will also receive less aid
and support from foreign benefactors than they did
during the military regime, thereby further cutting
their potential capabilities:
� The Palestine Liberation Organization, which in the
past provided the Montoncros with training and
funds, refused appeals for aid in mid-1983,
� Mexican officials, who had supported exiled
Montoneros with safchavcn and government jobs,
arc removing many from their posts and forcing
them to leave Mexico,
The government, however, has already taken a tough
stand against the Montoneros. Obrcgon Cano and
Bidegain were arrested soon after returning, making
good Alfonsin's public pledge to hold the former
terrorists �like the military�accountable for crimes
committed during the 1970s. The President,
reiterating his campaign promise to prevent a
resurgence of terrorism, plans to press for stringent
countcrsubvcrsivc legislation. Moreover, recent
statements by government officials suggest that
Alfonsin intends to preserve�at least for now�the
military's ability to gather intelligence on terrorist
capabilities.
3.5(c)
Prospects Dim
We believe the Montoncros have little prospect of
achieving significant political gains in the near term
and that any violence will be swiftly contained.
Alfonsin's antisubversive measures deprive them of
the opportunity to organize effectively within the
country, and several key leaders have already put off
their return. Moreover, the Peronist party leadership
appears determined to isolate the radical left,
especially Saadi, although the odds on success are
uncertain. Isabel Peron, who for years did not exercise
Of<
� The Cubans. perhaps the Montoncros' most
important allies. arc likely to maintain contacts but
probably will hesitate to provide much more than
low-level support for renewed terrorism, given
Havana's interests in strengthening tics with the
new civilian government.
� Bolivia'', leftist President Siles probably will
continue providing safehaven and moral support�
the top two Montonero leaders were spotted moving
freely in La Paz as recently as late December�but
he is unlikely to permittry as a base
for guerrilla operations.
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