Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP90-00965R000100160041-2
Body:
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/10: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100160041-2
RADIO TV REPORTS, INC.
4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEVY CHASE, MARYLAND 20015 656-4C68
Good Morning America
October 8, 1981 7:00 AM
WJLA TV
ABC Network
Washington, DC
JACK ANDERSON: The Central Intelligence Agency has
completed a preliminary post-mortem on the Sadat assassination.
I've had access to this secret assessment.
Now, what will be the most likely repercussions? Well,
here's what the CIA predicts will happen in Egypt without Anwar
Sadat.
First, the CIA predicts the loss of Sadat will not be
catastrophic. The new government is expected to continue Sadat's
policies. The stability of Egypt will depend upon the Army, which
is expected to remain loyal.
Second, the CIA believes Israeli confidence in the peace
process will be shaken by the Sadat shooting. Prime Minister Men-
achem Begin is expected to have trouble keeping his Cabinet in
line. President Reagan's Mideast adviser and negotiator, Philip
Habib, has recommended tying up the loose ends of the Camp David
pact and searching for a new approach.
Third, the CI-A anticipates a continuing crackdown on
dissidents in Egypt. Sadat's killers probably will be held in-
communicado and the world will be given only an official version
of the assassination. The CIA has no clear idea who was behind
the plot, but the agency believes the least likely culprits would
be Egyptian Army dissidents.
Meanwhile, U.S. military forces have been put on alert.
There are five stages of alertness. Number five is normal. Num-
ber one means ready for action. Well, the armed forces have been
brought up from a five to a three alert until the crisis in Egypt
settles down.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/10: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100160041-2