THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 21 DECEMBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466929
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 21, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000400030001-1
The President's Daily Brief
December 21, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E 0 11652
exemption category 5B( 1).(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
December 21, 1976
Table of Contents
Israel: Prime Minister Rabin's
decision to resign and force an
likely to arrest a decline in
his shaky position
least in the short run. (Page 1)
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China:
early national election is
his popular standing and strengthen
within the Labor Party, at
(Page
3)
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France
-Pakistan:
Note:
(Page
4)
West Germany (Page 6)
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ISRAEL: Prime Minister
Rabin's decision to re-
sign and force an early
national election--possi-
bly in April or May--is
likely to arrest a de-
cline in his popular
standing and strengthen
his shaky position within
the Labor Party, at
least in the short run.
If Rabin succeeds in
rallying the party
around him, he is likely
to seek a moderate plank
on Middle East peace ne-
gotiations in the party
platform.
Rabin will now try to secure broad
Labor Party backing for his con-
tinued leadership and to place his
stamp on the party's campaign plat-
form at its convention in late Feb-
ruary.
Although party conservatives and
some moderates had been leaning
toward the more hawkish Defense
Minister Peres, they are likely
to unite behind Rabin rather than
precipitate a bitter and possibly
suicidal leadership struggle.
Peres, who was caught by surprise
along with everyone else, will prob-
ably shelve his drive for the lead-
ership rather than risk the onus of
causing Labor to lose its 28-year
hold on power by challenging Rabin
now.
Rabin apparently would like to
have a plank sufficiently vague to
mollify party conservatives, yet
moderate enough in tone to satisfy
Labor doves and Labor's long-stand-
ing left-wing coalition partner,
the Mapam party, which controls
seven seats in parliament.
By adopting a moderate stance,
Rabin may also calculate that
Labor can win back support among
moderate splinter groups, inde-
pendents, and disgruntled Labor
supporters who appear to be turn-
ing increasingly to Yigael Yadin's
new Democratic Movement party.
Yadin's party, according to a re-
cent public opinion poll, has al-
ready made serious inroads into
Labor's strength and could win as
many as 12 seats in parliament if
an election were held now.
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Should Rabin's gamble
misfire, he risks losing
the initiative to the
conservative Likud op-
position bloc.
Significant gains by Likud in the
election could force Labor into a
national unity government that
would tie its hands on peace nego-
tiations with the Arabs.
The National Religious Party is
almost certain now to turn more
to the right in search of political
allies and could well link up with
Likud. The party's moderate old-
guard leadership would be reluctant
to establish more than a tactical
working relationship with Likud,
but the militant young faction is
likely to press hard for a formal
alliance--possibly even a merger
of the two groups--especially if
Rabin begins to falter.
Such an alliance at present would
control at least 44 of the 120
seats in parliament and might at-
tract the Free Center party, with
four seats, and the supporters of
the hawkish General Ariel Sharon,
who has a small popular following
of his own. Labor and Mapam now
hold 53 seats.
Out of the government, the National
Religious Party may also feel less
hesitant about backing efforts of
the radically right-wing Gush
Emunim movement to establish Jewish
settlements all over the occupied
West Bank. Such action would pro-
voke serious Arab demonstrations
there that could be politically
embarrassing to Rabin's government
and possibly complicate his posi-
tion in future Middle East peace
talks.
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CHINA:
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FRANCE-PAKISTAN:
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5 '
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A West German Foreign
Office spokesman said
yesterday that West Ger-
many will no 'longer ex-
port nuclear technology
that could enable other
countries to develop nu-
clear weapons.
NOTE
The official said existing agree-
ments will not be affected by the
new decision. He specifically
stated that West Germany will not
cancel its agreement to sell Brazil
plants for uranium enrichment and
spent fuel reprocessing.
The Foreign Office spokesman made
his remarks in commenting on France's
decision last week to embargo sales
of nuclear reprocessing equipment.
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Top Secret
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