THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 18 MAY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015112
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 18, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013400010005-3
The President's Daily Brief
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,
May 18, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 5B( I
declassified onb1 on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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May 18, 1976
Table of Contents 25X1
Lebanon: The severity of the fighting in Beirut over the weekend
prompted new threats from President Franjiyah that he will 25X1
not resign until security improves. (Page 1)
Egypt:
(Page 2)
Jo,rcILI.:L_Al_y) aim
(Page 2)
USSR: Brezhnev's more frequent public appearances recently follow
two months of subtle change in Soviet leadership behavior. 25X1
(Page 3)
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Note: Sudan-Ethiopia (Page 5)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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LEBANON: The severity
of the fighting in
Beirut over the week-
end prompted new threats
yesterday from Presi-
dent Franjiyah that he
will not resign until
security improves.
It is not clear whether the Presi-
dent's threat was issued solely
on his own initiative or was part
of an alleged secret agreement be-
tween Christian and Syrian leaders
that Franjiyah delay his resigna-
tion until Syria eliminates the 25X1
radical Muslim security threat.
The Christians themselves appear
to have initiated a new offensive
against the leftists in Beirut.
Both Christian and Muslim militia-
men using heavy artillery shelled
residential areas indiscriminately,
causing high death tolls. Although
the bombardment subsided somewhat
yesterday, fighting continues in
most areas of the capital.
Tripoli remained relatively quiet
yesterday in the wake of heavy
clashes there last week between
Syrian forces and Iraqi-sponsored
leftist groups. There is still
considerable tension, but some Pal-
estine Liberation Army commanders
responded over the weekend to a
withdrawal order from Yasir Arafat.
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EGYPT:
JORDAN-LIBYA:
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--continued
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USSR: Srezhnev's more
frequent public appear-
ances and the burst of
acclaim for him follow
two months of subtle
signs of change in So-
viet leadership behavior.
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The leadership used the party con-
gress to mark time and emphasize
continuity and stability. Since
then, there has been some indica-
tion that Brezhnev's reduced stam-
ina has been recognized and that
duties among the leadership have
been redistributed. Other senior
leaders have usually been called
on to fill in for Brezhnev.
According to the US embassy, there
are rumors in Moscow of political
changes when the Central Committee
meets again, perhaps in June. The
rumors include shifts in top lead-
ership offices or the elevation of
Brezhnev to a less active but still
authoritative status.
The balance of forces represented
in the leadership for over a de-
cade does not appear to have been
upset, however, and there is no
convincing evidence that any fac-
tion of the leadership will be able
to dictate succession moves in the
near future. Indeed, most senior
leaders probably see their inter-
ests best served by the status quo
and are reluctant to push for
changes.
Any changes in relationships within
the leadership in the near future
probably will involve elevating Brezh-
nev to a more honorary status while
altering the leadership balance as
--continued
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EGYPT-ISRAEL:
little as possible. The evidence does
not yet demonstrate, however, that
the leadership is ready to take such
a step.
Although Cairo in late April moved
the armored personnel carriers
from two mechanized infantry bat-
talions to the west bank of the
canal, combat and service support
units co-located with these two
battalions were still seen on the
east bank--suggesting that some
elements of the two battalions
also remain there.
In a conversation with Ambassador
Eilts last week, Egyptian Minister
of War Gamasy said that he had not
been able to reduce the number of
battalions to the permitted eight
because of "technical and adminis-
trative reasons." Gamasy noted
that there already had been a re-
duction in the number of battalion
headquarters, and indicated that
the remaining redeployments would
take place by May 20.
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Sudan is worried that
Ethiopia's planned of-
fensive against Eri-
trean rebels might in-
volve Sudanese forces
in the fighting.
NOTE
The Sudanese are afraid that the
Ethiopians will send air and
ground forces into Sudanese terri-
tory in hot pursuit of fleeing Eri-
treans. The Khartoum government
has warned that it will take defen-
sive measures and apparently has
asked Iraq and Syria for SA-7 hand-
held missiles and other air de-
fense weapons.
We believe Ethiopia will try to
avoid violating Sudanese territory
during the forthcoming offensive,
but there could well still be bor-
der incidents.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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(
Top Secret
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