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The President's Daily Brief
10 December 1973
To
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I 1652
exemption category 5E0),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
10 December 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Cairo says it will participate in the peace confer-
ence in Geneva but will have little patience with
any Israeli footdragging. There are further signs
that most fedayeen leaders are setting their sights
on the creation of an independent Palestinian state
at Geneva, even if compromise is necessary to achieve
this. The Arab oil producers have announced that
they will resume their five-percent-monthly cuts in
production, starting in January. (Page 1)
The unimpeded passage of a South Korean ferry to the
outermost of the islands in the disputed area off
the western coast yesterday has eased tensions a
bit.
(Page 3)
Cambodian Communists have launched small-scale ground
attacks against Kompong Speu and against government
positions along Route 4 between that city and Phnom
Penh. On the political front, President Lon Nol is
looking for a replacement for Prime Minister In Tam,
who has once again announced his desire to resign.
(Page 4)
In South Vietnam, there is still heavy fighting
around Kien Duc; both the Communists and the govern-
ment say they control the district town. The South
Vietnamese appear to be in the city, but some North
Vietnamese remain either in parts of the town or its
immediate outskirts. (Page 5)
The Soviet party Central Committee probably will
meet today or tomorrow to approve the economic plan
and budget for 1974 before they are presented to
the Supreme Soviet on Wednesday. A plenum would
also give Brezhnev a chance to report on the current
situation at home and abroad. (Page 5)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
Egyptian Deputy Prime Minister Hatim on December
8 said that Cairo will participate in the peace con-
ference in Geneva despite the breakdown of the talks
at Kilometer 101. In a major policy speech, he
stressed that Egypt will not, however, tolerate fur-
ther Israeli "procrastination" and will not allow
the conference to result in the "deadlock that ex-
isted before October 6." He added that the Egyp-
tians will keep their "fingers on the trigger" to
prevent "enemy treachery."
Hatim devoted most of his address to domestic
affairs. He gave a ringing endorsement to plans
for "economic openness" that Cairo had stressed in
the months before the war as a means of moving Egypt
away from its Nasirist, socialist economic past.
These plans had drawn open criticism from the USSR,
and Hatim's reiteration of them will give rise to
fresh misgivings in Moscow as to Cairo's future
course. Moreover, the USSR will find little satis-
faction in Hatim's cursory thanks for Soviet mili-
tary, economic, and political support. Hatim's
strong emphasis on domestic affairs appears largely
an attempt to convince the Egyptian people that
even though the government must now concentrate on
military and political problems, it has effective
plans' to improve their economic situation.
The Palestine News Agency reported on December
8 that fedayeen leaders have rejected a Jordanian
initiative for a joint delegation to the talks in
Geneva. The report claimed that Jordan offered to
form a new government that could include officials
selected by the Palestinians. The new government
would in turn appoint the Jordanian delegation to
the conference. According to the Palestinians,
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"the Revolution's leadership refused even to discuss
the offer." Predictably, Amman has denied taking
such an initiative. Even if Jordanian denials are
valid, however, the Palestinian statement is a fresh
sign-of fedayeen reluctance to move toward coopera-
tion with Jordan.
Meanwhile, the US Embassy in Beirut sees fur-
ther signs that most fedayeen leaders are setting
their sights on the creation of an independent
Palestinian state at Geneva--even if compromise is
necessary to achieve this. Sensitive to charges
from the ranks that they are selling out to the
enemy, fedayeen leaders are taking pains to over-
come resistance to participation in the talks. In
looking toward a Palestinian state--even a small
one that would co-exist with Israel--some are
stressing the tactical advantage of accepting half
a loaf.
Voicing strong support for the concept of a
Palestinian state, the head of the radical Popular
Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine
declared on December 6 that the Palestinians should
take what they can get now. He contended that the
fedayeen face a choice between "passive opposition
and positive revolutionary opposition." He came
out strongly for the latter, which he said requires
the Palestinians to gain an independent national
existence on any piece of soil that can be wrested
from Israeli control. In this way, the fedayeen
leader argued, the Palestinians could better pre-
serve themselves as a people and press on to over-
throw Husayn, defeat Israel, and eventually regain
their "full rights."
Ministers of the Organization of Arab Petro-
leum Exporting Countries, meeting in Kuwait over
the weekend, decided to resume, starting in January,
their five-percent-monthly cuts in oil production.
The Arabs also agreed that they would gradually in-
crease production and end the ban on oil export to
the US only when Israel begins to implement a time-
table for withdrawal from all Arab territories occupied
since 1967, including Jerusalem. The rate of oil
production increases would, the ministers said, cor-
respond to phases in Israel's withdrawal, and the
timetable must be guaranteed by the US.
2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
KOREA
The unimpeded passage of a South Korean ferry
with naval escort to the outermost of the islands
in the disputed area off the west coast yesterday
has eased tensions a bit. The
South Koreans reported seeing at
eastive North Korean patrol boats en route.
1
f"
In a statement issued only. hours before the
ferry got under way, Pyongyang appeared to clarify
its terms for passage. The North demanded that
Seoul obtain prior approval for any ships traveling
to the islands, but threatened "punishment" only to
ships "carrying out reconnaissance and other hos-
tile acts." A week earlier, the North had called
for "proper steps" against any vessels making the
trip without its permission. Pyongyang may hope
that the latest statement will explain its lack of
action against routine South Korean resupply vessels.
Meanwhile, the war of words between the two
sides has intensified. Seoul and Pyongyang have
issued a series of statements accusing each other
of violating the North-South accord and pressing
for a resumption of the dialogue on their respec-
tive terms.
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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CAMBODIA
The Communists have launched small-scale ground
attacks against Kompong Speu and against government
positions along Route 4 between that city and Phnom
Penh. Army commanders are concerned that the Commu-
nists may be trying to cut off Kompong Speu and the
army's 4,000-man task force, which has reported
slight progress in clearing a seven-mile stretch of
Route 4 to the west of Kompong Speu.
South of Phnom Penh, the situation at the pro-
vincial capital of Takeo has improved, although the
city remains the target of sporadic Communist shell-
ings and probes.
Nearer the capital, a Communist message of De-
cember 8 ordered only a limited increase in activity
south of the Prek Thnaot River between December 16
and 25. The message stated that "during January
and February our objectives are moderate" and urged
units "to build up capabilities for...the period
when the various major offensives begin."
On the political front, President Lon Nol is
casting about for a replacement for Prime Minister
In Tam, who on December 7 once again announced his
desire to resign. The US Embassy in Phnom Penh re-
ports that Lon Nol's first choice is likely to be
his long-time associate, General Thappana Nginn,
currently the third vice prime minister. Sink
Matak and others are likely to oppose this choice.
4
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GUANG
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554983 12-73
VINN
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NOTES
South Vietnam: Heavy fighting continues around
the district town of Kien Duc; both the Communists
and the government say they control the town. The
South Vietnamese appear to be in the city, but some
North Vietnamese remain either in parts of the town
or its immediate outskirts. The recent destruction
of the Nha Be fuel depot outside Saigon was caused
by about 15 employees who used explosives first to
rupture the tanks and then ignite the fuel as it
poured out, according to the South Vietnamese offi-
cer in charge of the investigation.
USSR: The Central Committee probably will meet
today or tomorrow to approve the economic plan and
budget for 1974 before they are presented to the
Supreme Soviet on Wednesday. A plenum, the first
since last April, would give Brezhnev an opportunity
to report on the current situation at home and
abroad, but his speech probably would not be pub-
lished.
5
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Top Secret
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