THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 1 DECEMBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007611
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 1, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
1 December 1973
45
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Exempt from general
declauification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 513(1),(21(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
1 December 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Efforts to persuade Cairo and Tel Aviv to resume
direct talks continued yesterday amid indications of
increasing expectations on both sides that a resump-
tion of fighting may be imminent. (Page 1)
Both Moscow and New Delhi have some reason to be sat-
isfied with Brezhnev's visit, although neither achieved
its maximum goals. Brezhnev received an endorsement
of his detente policy, while India obtained promises
of greater economic aid. (Page 4)
Soviet and Chinese officials have confirmed that
Peking has rejected a Soviet proposal made earlier
this year to settle the Sino-Soviet border dispute
east of Mongolia. (Page 5)
Increased North Korean military activity continues in
the southern half of the country, particularly in the
southwest sector and along the Northern Limit Line.
Naval vessels patrolling south of the line have pene-
trated South Korean territorial waters at least three
times in as many days. (Page 6)
Military activity in Cambodia increased yesterday as
Communist ground attacks forced government units to
abandon Vihear Suor, a small provincial capital ten
miles northeast of Phnom Penh. The town's fall poses
no immediate threat to Phnom Penh. (Page 7)
South Korean President Pak is under mounting domestic
pressure to moderate his authoritarian policies
(Page 8)
Notes of Thailand's internal problems and Japanese
interest in joint development of oil and natural gas
deposits with the Soviets appear on Page 9,
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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
Efforts to persuade Cairo and Tel Aviv to re-
sume talks continued yesterday amid indications of
increasing expectations on both sides that a resump-
tion of fighting may be imminent.
United Nations Emergency Force commander General
Siilasvuo met with Egyptian Minister of War Ismail
in Cairo for an hour yesterday before flying to Jeru-
salem for meetings on Sunday with Israeli officials,
probably including Minister of Defense Dayan. Cairo's
UN representative met with UN Secretary General Wald-
heim yesterday and reportedly warned him that the
breakdown of the Kilometer 101 talks last Thursday
could jeopardize the start of peace talks in Geneva
on December 18. The representative raised the pos-
sibility of renewed fighting along the Suez front.
A senior UN official said yesterday that the
UN Secretariat would have to prepare a report on
the breakdown of the talks for Waldheim to present
to the Security Council.
the UN official believes
that such a report might raise questions that could
trigger requests for a Security Council meeting.
What, if any, success UN efforts to bring the two
sides together again might have is unclear. Press
reports cite Egyptian.officials as saying it is now
up to Washington and Moscow to salvage the situation
by persuading Israel to be more forthcoming on the
issue of troop withdrawals in the Sinai.
Israeli officials in Tel Aviv and Washington
yesterday expressed fears that hostilities may break
out within the week. They claimed that Egyptian
forces are on the highest state of alert, that
armored concentrations poised against Israel's West
Bank salient remain in place, and that within the
past week Egypt has completed preparations to resume
hostilities. Israel's fears of an Egyptian attack
may be well founded. When the six-point agreement
was initialed earlier last month, there were reports
that Egypt would resume hostilities if all six pro-
visions were not fulfilled. Implicit in these "warn-
ings" were Cairo's suspicions that the Israelis
would not agree to all the provisions and further
US pressure would be needed.
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A UN source has provided an account of Thurs-
day's talks at Kilometer 101 which gives some ex-
planation for Egypt's abrupt decision to call off
further meetings.
Israel's negotiator, General Yariv,
told the Egyptians he had no further proposals to
make and then reiterated the original Israeli pro-
posal that both sides evacuate all territory gained
during the October fighting and turn it over to UN
forces. Yariv added that he knew this would be un-
acceptable to Egypt but had no authority to go be-
yond this proposal. He thus acknowledged implicitly
that the proposals he had put forth earlier had been
unauthorized.
UN forces patrolling the southern Suez front
reported a marked upswing in the number of cease-
fire violations over the past several days. An Is-
raeli military officer also told the press that the
Suez front was "warming up," and Tel Aviv reported
that Israeli forces came under Egyptian fire five
times yesterday. One Israeli was wounded. Most
clashes, however, appeared to be localized affairs
involving small-arms fire, although some mortar
and artillery fire was also exchanged.
In a speech to American Jewish leaders in Jeru-
salem, Prime Minister Meir reiterated her objections
to international guarantees as a substitute for de-
fensible borders. Mrs. Meir said she is not con-
vinced fighting will not resume but hoped it would
not. After stating that she had not noticed a single
genuine call for peace from this week's Arab summit
in Algiers, she said that Israel is still ready to
attend the proposed Geneva peace conference.
(continued
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The Israeli scenario for the conference was
spelled out by Foreign Minister Eban in an interview
with an Israeli newspaper. He expects it to convene
in Geneva on schedule on December 18 with Foreign
Minister Gromyko and Secretary Kissinger attending
the opening session along with the foreign ministers
of Israel, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, and possibly Lebanon.
The conference would then adjourn until after the
Israeli Government received a negotiating mandate in
the December 31 elections. Eban said that he ex-
pected the peace conference to go on for months
after reconvening in January. The second phase
would be attended by permanent delegations of pro-
fessional diplomats who would deal with specific
problems between Israel and individual Arab states.
Eban insisted that Israel would not accept participa-
tion in the conference by PLO leader Yasir Arafat,
even though the Arab summit had recognized the PLO
as the sole representative of the Palestinian people.
Instead, he suggested that Palestinian representatives
be included in the Jordanian delegation, a concept
that the Arab summit rejected.
The US counsel in Jerusalem reported on November
30 that Palestinians on the Israeli-occupied West
Bank are rapidly coming around to the view that the
PLO should negotiate for all Palestinians. They re-
portedly feel that an independent West Bank - Gaza
state should emerge under PLO leadership and that
Jordan's King Husayn should neither represent nor
rule them. Informed journalists think that, in the
wake of the Algiers summit, an overwhelming majority
of the normally politically fragmented West Bankers
favor these ideas, while the remainder are reluctant
to speak out in opposition. In such an atmosphere,
there is considerable expectation that the PLO will
try to broaden its base by adding West Bank person-
alities to its Palestinian National Assembly. The
upsurge of support for the PLO and a separate state
apparently has been stimulated by the widespread as-
sumption that now, for the first time, it is possible
for West Bankers to decide for themselves what they
want, regardless of Jordanian and Israeli views.
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USSR-INDIA
' Both Moscow and New Delhi have some reason to
be satisfied with Brezhnev's visit, although neither
achieved its maximum goals. Brezhnev failed to get
endorsement for his Asian collective security pro-
posal, and at least on the surface did not secure
closer Soviet-Indian military cooperation. He did,
however, get an endorsement of his detente policy
which will undercut criticism of superpower diplomacy
by other nonaligned countries. The USSR can portray
various agreements signed as a strengthening of the
Soviet position in India, and Brezhnev may have had
some success in assuring the Indian leadership that
Moscow will not sacrifice India's interests to detente.
India's gains were primarily economic--larger
amounts of scarce commodities such as crude oil and
perhaps foodgrains, and assistance to help India
overcome its energy shortages. However, the Soviets
may not have agreed to provide all the kinds of as-
sistance_the Indians really want. At,present India
pays more onold debts to the USSR than it receives
in new Soviet assistance.
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USSR-CHINA
Soviet and Chinese officials have confirmed
that Peking rejected a Soviet proposal made earlier
this year to settle the Sino-Soviet border dispute
east of Mongolia.
Mikhail Kapitsa, chief of the Soviet Forei n
Ministry's Far East Division, recently told
that a Soviet pro- 25X1
posal of last March envisaged establishing the bor-
der at the main navigation channel of the Amur and
Ussuri rivers rather than along the Chinese bank 25X1
of the rivers. In June, a Chinese official told
that China had demurred 25X1
on the grounds that the entire border--including the
area west of Mongolia--should be negotiated as a
single package.
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A Chinese embassy officer in Moscow confirmed
this on November 28 and noted that, while the So-
viet offer would have given the Chinese a number
of contested islands, it would have left the Soviets
holding the island of Hei-hsia-tzu, which has been
the focal point of the dispute for several years.
Hei-hsia-tzu lies directly opposite the city of
Khabarovsk, the headquarters of the Soviet Far East
Military District. The Soviets consider the north-
ern route around the island to be an internal water-
way and are especially sensitive about any changes
that would bring the border closer to the city.
Pravda journalist Yuri Zhukov told a Soviet
television audience about the proposal in general
terms on October 20, and, a subsequent Soviet Chinese-
language broadcast conceded--in a rare public admis-
sion--that "some changes at points along the...bor-
der may be called for." By disclosing the offer, as
well as the proposal of a nonaggression pact made to
Peking last June, the Soviets are trying to portray
themselves as the conciliatory party faced with Chi-
nese intransigence. They are also trying to under-
score the contrast between their success in conclud-
ing a series of treaties with the US--particularly on
the prevention of nuclear war--and the impasse in
Sino-Soviet relations.
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NORTH KOREA
North Korean military activity continues at an
abnormally high level in the southern half of the
country, particularly in the southwest sector and
along the Northern Limit Line.
North Korean naval vessels patrolling south of
the line have penetrated South Korean territorial
waters at least three times in the past three days
Pyongyang, in response to the UN Command's
protests against the naval activity, has accused
Seoul of hostile acts and espionage and termed its
own activity "routine patrols" within North Korean
territorial waters. In the Military Armistice Com-
mission meeting scheduled for today, Pyongyang may
claim some areas near the limit line as its terri-
torial waters.
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CAMBODIA
Military activity in Cambodia increased yester-
day as Communist ground attacks forced government
units to abandon Vihear Suor, a small provincial cap-
ital ten miles northeast of Phnom Penh.
While the town's fall poses no immediate threat
to Phnom Penh, the Communists could use it as a base
to mount operations against villages on the Mekong's
east bank just upstream from the capital. Although
the rest of the capital region is calm, intercepted
messages reflect Communist plans to cut traffic on
the Mekong and launch attacks along Route 1 southeast
of Phnom Penh.
Elsewhere, the provincial capital of Takeo, 40
miles south of Phnom Penh, remains under siege. De-
spite the recent arrival of at least one fresh bat-
talion and daily support from the Cambodian Air Force,
the city's defensive perimeter has shrunk under steady
Communist pressure. Communist units have also checked
government clearing operations along Route 4, west of
Kompong Speu. The insurgents now control seven miles
of highway southwest of the village of Moha Sang.
An intercepted message late last week stated that the
fighting along Route 4 had "caused the invasion of
Kompong Speu city to be delayed."
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SOUTH KOREA
President Pak is under mounting domestic pres-
sure to moderate his authoritarian policies.
The government has also approved a care-
fully worded National Assembly recommendation that
calls for limited political reforms. There are in-
dications that Pak plans a new initiative in the
negotiations with the North early next year to re-
focus public attention on the unification issue.
The cosmetic character of these moves points
up Pak's belief that he can ride out the storm with-
out significantly modifying any of his major policies.
He clearly wants to avoid making concessions that
might only whet the appetite of his opposition. He
seems to have confidence in the military and security
forces, continues to believe that most Koreans wish
to avoid the uncertainty that would attend any major
weakening of his power.
Pak's troubles seem likely to continue nonethe-
less. The regime's compromise gestures fall far
short of the basic political reforms the students
and others are demanding. In the past few days
campus demonstrations have intensified and spilled
into the streets, causing the government to close
schools and colleges.
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NOTES
Thailand: Recent strikes and other labor unrest,
accompanied at times by violence and vandalism, are
worrying Thai government leaders, who are eager to
see the country return to normal.
So far, the labor sit-
uation does not appear to be a serious threat, but
the new government could create trouble for itself
by overreacting.
Japan-USSR: The energy crisis has rekindled
Japan's interest in developing oil and natural gas
deposits on the island of Sakhalin. Japanese busi-
ness interests now favor reopening talks concerning
joint Soviet-Japanese development there, and want
Tokyo to bear some of the costs if the Sakhalin de-
posits should prove insufficient for development.
Until recently, Tokyo wanted to hold up talks on the
Sakhalin project until final details were worked out
on the joint Soviet-Japanese Tyumen oil project.
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