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The President's Daily Brief
March 7, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category SB( 1).12)(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
I, I t
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
March 7, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Israelis are showing concern over Syria's inten-
tions. (Page 1)
No significant changes in Israel's negotiating posi-
tion is likely to result from the new cabinet ap-
pointments Prime Minister Meir announced yesterday.
(Page 2)
An agreement between government and union officials
has ended Britain's coal strike. Resumption of coal
production, however, will only partially remedy the
serious economic problems that Britain faces.
(Page 3)
King Husayn has sent special envoys to King Faysal,
President Sadat, and President Asad to discuss the
role of the Palestinians in the peace negotiations.
(Page 4)
A Libyan Foreign Ministry official told the US
Charge in Tripoli that his government is interested
in better relations. (Page 5)
The Ethiopian labor confederation launched the coun-
try's first general strike today despite government
efforts to head it off. (Page 6)
A high-level Khmer Communist message shows that Cam-
bodian insurgents received a shipment of arms from
the Vietnamese Communists on February 25. (Page 7)
President Pak believes that he can deal with any
unrest that may follow the reopening of Seoul's
major universities. (Page 8)
Opposition to ratification of a treaty providing for
joint oil exploration with South Korea has surfaced
within Prime Minister Tanaka's party. (Page 9)
In Guatemala, the government announced last night
that General Laugerud won a plurality of votes in
the election on March 3. (Page 10)
Page 11.
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ISRAEL-SYRIA
The Israelis are watching concentrations of
Syrian troops near the cease-fire line, and are wor-
ried by reports that President Asad is under pres-
sure for having released the Israeli POW list.
An Israeli press dispatch yesterday indicates
that Israeli units in the Golan Heights are on alert.
In addition, the Israelis are now conducting daily
aerial reconnaissance of the Heights under heavy
fighter escort.
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ISRAEL
No significant change in Israel's negotiating
position is likely to result from the new cabinet
appointments Prime Minister Meir announced yesterday.
Domestic critics, however, will cite the simi-
larity between the new cabinet and its predecessor
as evidence of further hardening of political ar-
teries in Tel Aviv.
In presenting a new cabinet to President Katzir,
Mrs. Meir was bolstered at the last minute by a prom-
ise of participation by the National Religious Party.
If Religious Party ministers rejoin, Meir will have
essentially the same team as before and will command
a majority of votes in the Knesset.
There were only five new ministers among the
16 she named, .The most noteworthy of these is
Yitzhak Rabin, former Israeli chief of staff and am-
bassador to the US, who was named labor minister.
Meir is said to value highly Rabin's views on rela-
tions with the US.
Three cabinet posts--Religious Affairs, Welfare,
and Interipr--were left open for their former incum-
bents from the National Religious Party. The post
of transport minister was also left open and no men-
tion was made of a new communications minister.
President Katzir has given Meir until Sunday
to fill the vacancies.
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UK
An agreement between the government and union
officials has ended Britain's coal strike and will en-
able the country's workers to resume a five-day work-'
week.
The executive board of the mineworkers union
voted 25 to 2 to accept the government's $230-million
pay package, and union members are expected to approve
the agreement without delay. The president of the Na-
tional Union of Mineworkers has said he expects the
miners to be back at work on Monday.
Prime Minister Wilson paved the way for the set-
tlement by telling negotiators to disregard wage ceil-
ings imposed by former Prime Minister Heath. The gov-
ernment's offer--a wage increase of about 30 percent--
was more than twice the amount proposed by the previous
government.
The Trades Union Congress has promised that other
unions will not demand increases as large as those
granted the mineworkers. Nevertheless, Wilson's vol-
untary wage restraint policy appears headed for trouble.
Railroad workers recently rejected a 7-percent
pay increase and are holding out for 12 percent. Work-
ers in the shipbuilding, engineering, and automobile
industries may also be encouraged to increase their
demands in future bargaining.
Resumption of coal production will only partially
remedy the serious economic problems that Britain faces.
The end of the strike will limit the drop in industrial
production--the main source of exports--to about ?25
percent for the first quarter of the year. Transporta-
tion bottlenecks and shortages of materials will pre-
vent full industrial production until the third quarter.
? Britain's trade deficit--already the largest in
the world--will increase this year, despite the end of
?the strike. Exports will not return to last year's
level for several months. Meanwhile, rising prices for
oil and other imports--grain, wool, and rubber, for
example--add to Britain's trade problems.
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JORDAN
King Husayn has sent two special envoys to dis-
cuss with King Faysal, President Sadat, and President
Asad Husayn's current views toward the Palestinians
and their role in the peace negotiations. The King's
emissaries met Faysal'yesterday and are to see Sadat
today before proceeding to Damascus.
The Saudi ambassador in Amman, however, who was
almost certainly briefed on the envoys' mission, told
Amigassador Pickering that the two Jordanians would
spell out Husayn's position on the role of the Pal-
estinians. , He said the envoys will inform the Arab
leaders that Jordan is willing to recognize the Pal-
estine Liberation Organization as the sole represent-
ative of the Palestinians, but that Jordan still
wishes to exercise its "responsibility" to arrange
Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank through the
current disengagement process.
If the Saudi ambassador's account is accurate,
Husayn has hardened his views on negotiations con-
cerning the West Bank. In late February, the King
reportedly had decided to offer to let the PLO nego-
tiate with Israel for the return of the West Bank.
It would now appear that Husayn has reverted to his
earlier position of insisting that the fedayeen
participate at Geneva only at some "later stage."
An offer from Husayn to recognize the PLO as
the sole representative of the Palestinians, however,
would represent a compromise that could open the way
for some form of cooperation between Jordan and the
fedayeen organization.
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LIBYA
A Libyan Foreign Ministry official told the US
Charge in Tripoli this week that his government is
interested in better relations with the US. The of-
ficial suggested that Major Umar al-Muhayshi, a mem-
ber of the Revolutionary Command Council, come to
Washington for the announced purpose of contacting
Arabs in the US who might be interested in working
in Libya. If the US agreed in principle to the talks,
the official said that the visit could take place as
early as next week. The Libyan did not give reasons
for the demarche.
While the suggestion is a sharp departure from
Tripoli's past refusal to discuss bilateral problems
with US officials, it appears consistent with Qadhafi's
recent tendency to moderate some of his actions.
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ETHIOPIA
Ethiopia's first general strike began today.
The walkout by 85,000 members of the Ethiopian
labor confederation came despite strong attempts
by the beleaguered government to head it off.
The strikers are demanding increased wages and
other benefits. Union leaders have told workers to
stay off the streets; no disturbances have been re-
ported so far. Militants, however, reportedly plan
to demonstrate and this may lead to violence.
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CAMBODIA NORTH VIETNAM
A high-level Khmer Communist message of March 1
stated that Cambodian insurgents received part of 4
"second shipment" of arms, ammunition, and vehicles
from the Vietnamese Communists on February 25. It is
too early to tell whether this shipment is a portion
of the 900 tons of military equipment and 296 vehicles
that Hanoi agreed late last year to give to the Khmer
Communists, or whether it is additional aid.
The message asked the Khmer Communist Central
Party Committee to draw up a plan for distributing
the equipment "according to need." This suggested
that the insurgents may not commit the bulk of the
new arms and ammunition--which total approximately
110 tons--to one specific battlefront. According to
the message, the insurgents should have less difficulty
in moving this latest consignment because they have
resolved their fuel problems "somewhat."
In a high-level message of January 29--the pre-
vious known intercept on Vietnamese aid--the Khmer
Communists stated that the transfer of equipment from
the eastern part of the country to insurgent forces
in the western regions of Cambodia and in the Phnom
Penh area was almost complete.
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SOUTH KOREA
President Pak believes he can deal effectively
with any unrest that may follow the reopening of
Seoul's major universities this week. His confi-
dence stems in part from assurances made by security
and education officials that dissident leaders have
been neutralized by the government's new emergency
powers.
Pak's hand has also been strengthened by the
government's anti-Communist campaign, which is fo-
cused on Pyongyang's recent sinking of a South Ko-
rean fishing boat and other "provocative" acts.
Some(
/believe that North Korea's hostility toward
the South is undiminished and that tough domestic
policies are warranted. The same feeling is said
to be evident on some campuses.
Pak is not yet out of the woods. Some student
protests are likely this spring; they could provide
a catalyst for political protests by intellectuals,
Christians, and workers. Urban workers, who have
been hit by a 10-percent rise in retail prices so
far this year, are currently the object of a cam-
paign by Christian social action groups to increase
their political awareness.
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JAPAN
Opposition to ratification of a treaty with
South Korea providing for joint oil exploration in
the Korea Strait has surfaced within Prime Minister
Tanaka's own Liberal Democratic Party. The party's
small left wing claims an important agreement with
Seoul is inappropriate now because the two countries
have not yet recovered from the rupture caused by the
Kim Tae-chung kidnaping last summer. Leftist parties
are also expected to oppose the treaty because of
strong protests from China and North Korea. All oppo-
nents of the treaty say they want to examine its im-
pact on Japan's vital fishing industry.
Tanaka18 proposed civil aviation agreement with
Peking is Also still in trouble-. The Liberal Demo-
cratic Party's right wing and traditional factional
opponents of Tanaka and Of Foreign Minister Ohira
have joined in imposing a requirement that the exist-
ing civil aviation arrangements with Taipei be re-
vised before the government concludes a new treaty
with Peking.(
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GUATEMALA
The Guatemalan Government announced last night
that General Laugerud won a plurality of votes in
?the election on March 3, according to late press ac-
counts. The announcement came a few hours after po-
lice used tear gas to break up demonstrations by sup-
porters of opposition candidate General Rios Montt:
These moves could lead to widespread disorder.
Earlier, Rios Montt had threatened publicly to
"paralyze the country" if he were cheated'of his vic-
tory. He reportedly encouraged his followers to use
whatever tactics they felt appropriate to protest the
government's fraud in the election.
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Soviet Foxbat Aircraft
Moved Near China Border
Combat ceiling 77,000 feet
Speed 1,600 knots
Yrnow
Sea
Hsi-an.
Mu-chia-yen.
9\N . 590
540.195 -14?.paufical miles
555378 3-74 CIA
East
China
Sea
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NOTES
USSR: The high-speed, high-altitude MIG-25 re-
connaissance aircraft has been observed for the
first time in the eastern USSR.
three MIG-25s at Nikolayev-
skoye, a Soviet tactical aviation airfield near the
Sino-Soviet border. Should these aircraft replace
the YAK-28s now stationed at Nikolayevskoye, they
would significantly increase Soviet reconnaissance
capabilities against northeastern China. While the
YAK-28 has a maximum reconnaissance radius of 540
nautical miles, the MIG-25--with external fuel?tanks--
can operate up to 870 nautical miles at considerably
higher speeds and altitudes. This capability, if
the Soviets chose to use it, would permit operations
over all of Manchuria and considerably south of Peking.
USSR:
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Top Secret
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