THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 25 JUNE 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015146
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: June 25, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
June 25, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5F3( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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June 25, 1976
Table of Contents
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Lebanon: Christian forces launched heavy attacks in east Beirut
yesterday, and there also was fighting in almost all other
sections of the city. Most majorSyrian units in Lebanon re-
main in place. (Page 1)
(Page 2)
Syrian President Asad is due to arrive in Belgrade today for
talks with President Tito, who is attempting to cool the Leb-
anese crisis. (Page 2)
Egypt-Syria: The results of a meeting between the prime ministers
of Egypt and Syria indicate that a lasting reconciliation
between their countries is very unlikely. (Page 3)
Egypt-USSR: The Soviets have displayed some willingness to re-
sume limited military aid to Egypt, (Page 4)
Portugal: The Revolutionary Council is anxious to avoid the po-
litical problems that would arise if Prime Minister Azevedo
should die. (Page 4)
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EC - Puerto Rico: The EC Nine have been unable to agree on Com-
munity representation at the economic summit. (Page 6)
(Page 6)
World Grin: Our initial estimate of world grain production for
1976-1977--excluding rice--is a record 1,045 million tons.
(Page 7)
Notes: European Communists; USSR (Page 8)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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Beirut, Lebanon
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LEBANON: Extreme right-
wing Christian militias
yesterday intensified
their attacks on two
Palestinian refugee
camps in east Beirut.
In addition to the usual
heavy shelling, the of-
fensive included armored
assaults and ground
fighting.
Fighting spread yester-
day to all sections of
the capital except the
area near the airport.
The Christians have taken heavy
casualties but seem determined to
continue the attack until fedayeen
and leftist forces in the camps
are no longer able to prevent move-
ment from Christian enclaves in
Beirut to more secure Christian
areas northeast of the city. The
Christians are not likely to
achieve their full objective, how-
ever, unless the larger Phalanges
Party militia becomes heavily in-
volved.
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In that area, the Palestinians and
Syrians are pushing ahead with im-
plementation of the cease-fire ne-
gotiated m Minister
Jallud.
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Libyan Prime Minister
Jallud on Wednesday suc-
ceeded in arranging a
meeting of leaders of
all principal fedayeen
groups.
Although nothing concrete was ac-
complished, the session did repre-
sent at least a symbolic reconcili-
ation of the independent and Syr-
ian-controlled organizations.
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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Palestine Liber
Or. anization
Syrian President Asad
is to arrive in Belgrade
today for talks with
President Tito, who is
trying to ease the Leb-
anese crisis by urging
the principal leaders
involved in the con-
flict to settle their
differences.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
--continued
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EGYPT-SYRIA: The prime
ministers of Egypt and
Syria, who met yester-
day in Riyadh, appear
to have made some prog-
ress toward resolving
their governments' dif-
ferences.
Their largely superficial communi-
que indicates a lasting reconcili-
ation is highly unlikely, however.
The two sides seem to have skirted
fundamental issues, leaving these
for later consideration by Foreign.
Ministers Fahmi and Khaddam.
The communique declared that a
joint military-political committee
under the foreign ministers' gui-
dance will be formed to define the
"strategic requisites" for the lib-
eration of territories under Is-
raeli occupation. This is an im-
plicit recognition that the two
sides remain far apart on their
basic approach to negotiations
with Israel.
The new committee may have trouble
even getting off the ground. Vest-
ing the committee's leadership in
Fahmi and Khaddam, who are long-
time antagonists, is almost a guar-
antee of failure.
The communique also looks forward
to a summit meeting in Riyadh among
presidents Sadat and Asad and King
Khalid, but this is predicated on
prior agreement by the foreign min-
isters' _committee, which first
will present its recommendations
to the presidents.
The meeting produced a relatively
innocuous statement on the situa-
tion in Lebanon that contains
enough to satisfy both sides with-
out requiring concessions from ei-
ther.
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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EGYPT-USSR:
the
Soviets recently have
shown a willingness to
resume some limited
military assistance to
Egypt.
PORTUGAL: A hospital
spokesman said last
night that Prime Minis-
ter Azevedo--who suf-
fered a severe heart
attack on Wednesday--
was conscious, but his
condition remains crit-
ical.
The Soviets reportedly delivered
four overhauled Egyptian MIG-21
engines in May/
/ Moscow also is reported
to be delivering jeeps, trucks,
and other light equipment.
This information is in line with
recent statements by the Soviet
ambassador in Cairo, who has said
that Moscow had decided to make
sporadic shipments of small quan-
tites of military-related equip-
ment to demonstrate that the door
to a resumption of a military re-
lationship is still open.
Another Soviet official in Cairo,
who is familiar with the Egyptian
spare parts problem, has stated
that Moscow has no intention of
resuming a regular flow of spare
parts.
Although the overhauling of a
dozen or so engines will not ar-
rest the general decline in Egyp-
tian air force combat readiness,
Moscow's gestures will not go un-
noticed by senior Egyptian military
officers. They are becoming in-
creasingly dissatisfied with Pres-
ident Sadat's inability to replace
deteriorating Soviet hardware with
Western equipment.
The National Electoral Commission
has announced that the election
will proceed as scheduled unless
Azevedo dies before the polls
close.
The all-military Revolutionary
Council is anxious to avoid the
4
--continued
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political problems that would re-
sult if the election is put off.
The campaign will officially end
at midnight tonight, which is also
the deadline for candidates to
withdraw from the race. An Azevedo
aide told the US embassy in Lisbon
yesterday that staff assistants
were prepared to pull their candi-
date out of the competition, but
they cannot do so unless he per-
sonally signs the form.
Interior Minister Almeida e Costa
has been named interim prime min-
ister, but the question of who
serves in the position might be
reopened if the election has to be
rescheduled. In that event a move
to have Socialist leader Soares
form a government could develop.
Both Eanes and Azevedo have stated
that, if elected, they would des-
ignate Soares to head a Socialist
government. For the present, how-
ever, the decision belongs to Pres
ident Costa Gomes who continues to
favor a national unity formulation
that would include the communists.
--continued
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EC - PUERTO RICO: The
EC Nine failed to agree
among themselves on
Community representa-
tion at the Puerto Rico
summit.
A compromise which would have en-
abled EC officials to attend the
meeting was in the making last
week. The proposal specified that
unless the Community itself were
represented at future summits,
those invited could not take an
independent position on any matter
coming under EC competency unless
all Nine were represented at the
meeting.
France opposed fixed procedures
for future summits--although it
would have agreed to EC attendance
at Puerto Rico--and the compromise
failed. The French probably had
some support from other members who
are similarly reluctant to have
their hands tied in this fashion.
The larger members will make a
strong effort to smooth things over
at the EC Council which convenes
immediately after the summit. They
want to retain their maneuverabil-
ity but will be susceptible to a
compromise because they do not
want to face this issue each time
a summit is proposed. The Dutch--
among those most unhappy over this
breach in EC solidarity--take over
the EC presidency for the remain-
der of the year on July I and will
chair the EC summit.
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--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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WORLD GRAIN: Our ini-
tial forecast of world
grain production for
1976-77 (excluding rice)
is a record 1,045 mil-
lion tons, 6 percent
above 1975-76. The US
Department of Agricul-
ture's latest estimate
is 1,053 million tons.
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We estimate world wheat production
at 365 million tons, up 7 percent
over 1975-76. We are forecasting
a decrease in global import demand
by 7 million tons from last year.
Larger supplies in all the major
exporting countries point to keen
competition during the coming year.
Foreign demand for US wheat is es-
timated at 27.7 million tons, the
smallest in five years. Such a low
level of export volume would allow
US carryover stocks to increase
37 percent to more than 20 million
tons by July 1, 1977.
We forecast world feedgrain pro-
duction at 680 million tons--up 7
percent--due to larger US and So-
viet harvests.
Global demand for corn imports, we
estimate, will be down 8 percent
from 1975-76. With this figure
foreign demand for US corn would
drop 6.8 million tons in 1976-77,
to about 35.4 million tons. This
export volume in turn would allow
a stock addition of 9.9 million
tons, raising US carryover stocks
to 18.8 million tons by September
30, 1977.
-continued
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The European Communist
Party Conference finally
is scheduled to take
place in East Berlin
next Tuesday and Wednes-
day, according to an
announcement made yes-
terday by the East Ger-
mans.
The Soviets may soon
assign Backfire bombers
to their Baltic Fleet.
NOTES
The announcement came after 20
months of preparatory talks in-
volving representatives of 28 East
and West European communist parties.
Preparations were prolonged mainly
because of differences over the
content of the conference document.
The announcement did not reveal
any details about the document, but
the Italian Communist Party's for-
eign policy chief recently claimed
that it acknowledges the autonomy
of individual parties--including
their right to develop along na-
tional lines.
A number of the parties have al-
ready indicated they would not be
represented in East Berlin by
their party leaders. If so, Brez-
nev may be reluctant to attend.
As matters now stand, additional
differences between Moscow and the
independent-minded parties could
surface at the conference.
On June 18, at least three Back-
fires from the Soviet navy's only
operational Backfire unit near the
Black Sea flew to an airfield in
the Baltic Sea area. The flight
probably was made to familiarize
Backfire air crews with conditions
at that airfield, where satellite
photography shows the runway has
been lengthened and where air-to-
surface missile equipment associated
with the Backfire has been sighted.
The Backfire, capable of high-speed
attack at both high and low alti-
tudes, is intended to replace the
Soviet navy's standard intermediate
range bomber, the aging TU-16.
Some 30 Backfires have been de-
livered to operational military
*units since series producion began
in 1973. Of these, 16 have gone
to the navy. The Soviets produce
about two Backfires a month.
--continued
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Top Secret
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