THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 OCTOBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466872
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 15, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
October 15, 1976
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Top ecrei25x1
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Exempt from general
declassification scheduk of E 0 11652
exemptIon categOry 5B(1).121(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 15, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Syrian troops continued to advance toward Sidon yes-
terday. The Syrian offensive reportedly was not coordi-
nated with Christian leaders. (Page 1)
USSR-China: Soviet "journalist" Viktor Louis has written a
story--almost certainly authorized by high-level Soviet
officials--expressing Moscow's delight over the ouster of
the Chinese leftists. (Page 2)
Rhodesia: Prime Minister Ian Smith and black nationalist leader
Joshua Nkomo have announced their delegations to the con-
ference in Geneva called to shape an interim Rhodesian gov-
ernment. Another invited black leader, Robert Mugabe, a
spokesman for most of the guerrillas and a leader of ZANU,
wants to include that organization's top military commander
in his delegation, but the commander is now imprisoned in
Zambia. (Page 3)
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Eastern Europe: Eastern Europe will probably import record
amounts of grain this year. (Page 4)
Mexico:
Notes: Cuba; USSR (Page 6)
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TE ,NEAN
BEIRUT
'Sidon
DAMASCUS
IA
IS E
620206 8-76 CIA
Gola
; Heigh
MILES 20
0 KILOMETERS 20
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LEBANON: Syrian troops
continued a slow but
steady advance toward
Sidon yesterday.
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They overran Palestinian positions
as far west as Liba. They also in-
tensified attacks on leftist-Pal-
estinian strongholds near Alayh in
what appears to be a major drive
toward west Beirut. If the Syr-
ians are able to block the main
coastal road between Sidon and
Beirut and break through Palestin-
ian defenses along the southern
outskirts of the capital, the Pal-
estinian-held western sector of
the city will be completely block-
aded.
The Palestinians and their left-
ist allies--outgunned and out-
manned--have not tried so far to
stand up to the Syrian drive. They
are engaging instead in delaying
tactics and are gradually retreat-
ing toward more defensible posi-
tions.
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--continued
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Palestinian appeals ap-
parently prompted a de-
cision to convene an
Arab League foreign
ministers meeting today.
USSR-CHINA: Soviet
"journalist" Viktor
Louis has written a
story--almost certainly
authorized by high-
level Soviet officials--
expressing Moscow's de-
light over the ouster
of the Chinese leftists,
particularly Mao's
widow, Chiang Ching.
The Palestinians and leftists, who
presumably are unaware of the dis-
array among their adversaries, ap-
pear to be taking action to pre-
empt Christian attacks on their
positions inside Beirut.
There seems to be a growing feel-
ing in most Arab circles that a
summit has little chance of suc-
cess and should be postponed. Al-
though a number of Arab govern-
ments--including Kuwait and Saudi
Arabia--have issued statements
supporting Palestinian appeals for
a return to negotiations, most of
these governments are not prepared
to challenge Syria openly, espe-
cially at a summit meeting.
Louis' article, which was written
for the London Evening News and
France-Soir, appears to be directed
at Chinese moderates. Louis is
apparently telling them that if
they are inclined toward less hos-
tile relations with the USSR, they
should give a positive sign to
Moscow. He says that the Soviets
want a signal within the next
month and he implies that the dim-
inution of anti-Soviet propaganda
might be one such sign.
Louis claims that older Soviet
leaders are inclined to give the
Chinese more time to sort them-
selves out but are under pressure
from younger, less "sentimental"
officials who have no first-hand
--continued
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RHODESIA: Prime Minis-
ter Ian Smith and black
nationalist leader
Joshua Nkomo have an-
nounced their delega-
tions to the conference
in Geneva called to
shape an interim Rhode-
sian government. Two
other invited black
leaders, Robert Mugabe
and Bishop Muzorewa,
are still trying to
form their delegations.
knowledge of dealing with the Chi-
nese. He implies that this could
be China's last chance to prevent
Soviet hardliners from getting
Moscow to take "irreversible" de-
cisions on China.
The Soviet correspondent makes an
appeal to members of the Chinese
military, especially the older
ones, whom Louis credits with ap-
preciating the Soviet role in
China's development and understand-
ing Soviet military might.
Louis' effort probably reflects
Moscow's growing unhappiness with
the failure of the Chinese to re-
spond to its conciliatory gestures
since Mao's death.
As part of his efforts to make up
a delegation, Mugabe, secretary
general of the militant Zimbabwe
African National Union and spokes-
man for most of the guerrillas,
went back this week to Mozambique,
where most guerrillas are based,
for further consultations between
the military commanders and nation-
alist political leaders.
One of the key people Mugabe wants
at Geneva is Josiah Tongogara,
ZANU's top military commander, who
has been in a Zambian jail since
March 1975. Tongogara is now
standing trial for the assassina-
tion of one of his rivals, and
Zambian President Kaunda has re-
fused Mugabe's request to release
him.
Tongogara reportedly is highly re-
spected by the ZANU guerrillas,
who make up most of the insurgent
forces. Mugabe and other senior
ZANU officials are said to want
Tongogara associated with any
--continued
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EASTERN EUROPE: East-
ern Europe will proba-
bly import record
amounts of grain this
year.
agreement that might be reached
at the conference in order to en-
sure acceptance by guerrilla com-
manders in the field.
* * *
We estimate the 1975/76 grain har-
vest at less than 85 million tons,
down almost 3 million tons from
last year. The potato crop--much
of it used for fodder in Czecho-
slovakia, East Germany, and Po-
land--also was down.
Eastern Europe is likely to import
as much as 14 to 15 million tons
of grain in 1976/77, mostly from
Western sources. A record 8.5 to
9.0 million tons, valued at roughly
$1 billion, may be acquired in the
US, compared with 6.5 million tons
in 1975/76.
Purchases in the West will depend
on the amount of grain available
from the USSR. We would expect
the Soviets to provide 2 to 3 mil-
lion tons.
Most of the imported grain will
be used to feed livestock. Since
1974, shortages of feed have re-
sulted in a decline in livestock
numbers, and meat production has
failed to keep pace with rising
demand. There is unlikely to be
any improvement in food supplies
before late 1977.
Most of the grain will be pur-
chased by Czechoslovakia, East
Germany, and Poland, where severe
drought has cut the grain harvest
--continued
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MEXICO:[
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by roughly 20 percent and caused
even more serious reductions in
fodder and forage crops.
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* * *
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Cuba is preparing for
what apparently will
be the strongest prop-
aganda blast at the US
in years.
The Soviet spacecraft,
Soyuz 23, was launched
yesterday from the
Tyuratam test center
with two cosmonauts
aboard.
NOTES
The bodies of some of the victims
of the Cuban airliner crash last
week off Barbados were put on dis-
play yesterday in Havana's Revo-
lutionary Square for public view-
ing--a tactic intended to arouse
popular indignation. The display
is being complemented by a cam-
paign in the media blaming Cuban
exiles for the crash and accusing
the US of complicity. Hundreds
of thousands of Havana residents
are to congregate in Revolutionary
Square this morning to hear a
"funeral oration" most likely to
be delivered by Prime Minister
Castro.
Havana may believe that linking
the US publicly to such an act of
terrorism will create pressure on
Washington to bring the exiles
into line and put a damper on
further terrorist activity.
* * *
The spacecraft probably will dock
with Salyut 5--a military space
station in orbit since June 22--
sometime today.
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