THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 21 DECEMBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007628
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 21, 1973

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936-A011900010018-6
The President's Daily Brief
21 December 1973
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exemption category SB( 1),(4(3)
declassified only on approval of
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
December 21, 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Differences between Syria and Egypt have hardened
substantially in the past few days. Syria's re-
fusal to attend the Geneva conference has also dis-
rupted attempts to forge a common peace policy among
fedayeen organizations. (Page 1)
There is mounting evidence that Libya was involved
with the terrorists who hijacked a Lufthansa air-
craft from Rome earlier this week. (Page 3)
International meetings in Europe and in the Middle
East have dominated the oil news this week. (Page 4)
Soviet and East European Communist party specialists
met this week in Moscow to coordinate their efforts
to minimize the effects of wider contacts with the
West. (Page 6)
General Secretary Brezhnevis visit to Cuba appears
to have been deferred until mid-January. (Page 7)
The assassination of Prime Minister Carrero Blanco
has complicated General Franco's succession plans
and compounded the uncertainties of the post-Franco
era. (Page 8)
Notes on Soviet , security concerns 25X1
in Chile, Canadian wheat crop estimates, and Zaire's
nationalization of foreign-owned oil distribution
facilities appear on Page 9.
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SYRIA-EGYPT-FEDAYEEN
Differences between Cairo and Damascus have
hardened substantially in the past few days.
President Asad delivered a long tirade
against Sadat.
Asad's comments
reflect genuine doubts about Egypt's
trustworthiness and about prospects for a satisfac-
tory peace settlement. They also reflect concern
about the strength of Asad's position at home.
Asad hashed over Syrian
grievances against Egypt. He accused Sadat of ac-
cepting the cease-fire without consulting Damascus,
using the Syrians for his own ends
Asad was
especially critical of Sadat for throwing away the
Arabs' trump card by agreeing to exchange prisoners-
of-war--again without consulting Damascus. He
said Syria has no intention of relinquishing its Is-
raeli prisoners so easily.
The Syrian President indicated that sentiment
in the army and the Baath Party against Syrian at-
tendance at the Geneva conference was too strong
for him to disregard, but added that he might con-
sider participating later if he saw some "visible
results" coming from the talks. He put a decision
on resuming hostilities on the same "wait and see"
basis, and claimed he had no immediate plans for
such action.
Asad
could not accept less than
a total withdrawal without committing political
suicide.
(continued)
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Syria's refusal to go to Geneva and its efforts
to prevent the fedayeen from attending have disrupted
Arafat's attempt to forge a common Palestinian peace
policy.
.Arafat had made some progress earlier in gain-
ing from various fedayeen factions support for PLO
participation at some stage in the Geneva talks,
and for the creation of 4 Palestinian state consist-
ing of the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza.
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LIBYA FEDAYEEN-EGYPT
Libya may have helped plan the hijacking of fhP
Lufthansa aircraft from Rome earlier this week.
President Sadat reportedly views the operation
as an attempt by Qadhafi to sabotage the Geneva talks.
. Meanwhile, the Kuwaitis apparently are having
no success in eliciting information from the hijack-
ers about their identities Or organizational affili-
ation. Kuwaiti officials reportedly have decided to
turn them over to the Palestine Liberation Organiza-
tion. Kuwait's Foreign Minister told Ambassador
Stoltzfus yesterday that the PLO has been told cate-
gorically that Morocco and Kuwait expect the "harsh-
est punishment" to be meted out to the hijackers.
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INTERNATIONAL OIL
International meetings, past and future, in
Europe and in the Middle East, dominate the oil news
this week.
The EC summit meeting in Copenhagen apparently
made no progress in reconciling the differences among
the Europeans on how to cope with energy problems
and, in any case, focused mainly on medium- and long-
term measures. The absence of immediate action may
reflect, in part, the largely unstated consensus that
Western Europe can best maintain oil imports, and
provide for those countries with the largest poten-
tial deficits, by not taking formal collective meas-
ures that the Arabs could interpret as a challenge.
there is a "silent
understanding" that EC governments will not inter-
fere with the oil companies' efforts to supply all
regular customers, including those in the Netherlands,
on an equal basis. This "understanding" may not be
firm ; countries losing oil
as a result of the equalization effort have tended
to complain to the oil companies that too
much is being diverted from them. The UK, for exam-
ple, appears to be losing about 10 percent of its
oil supplies as a result of diversions and export
restraints by product suppliers, while France is
losing only some 2 percent.
Meanwhile, Secretary Kissinger's call for an
extensive cooperative energy program is being studied.
The British favor the Kissinger plan, the French are
skeptical, and most other countries have expressed
general approval, but are waiting for US elaboration
before committing themselves. The meeting of the
OECD Oil Committee's High Level Group on December 19
resulted in a strong consensus favoring the plan.
A majority wants the OECD used as a vehicle for the
group, although details were not discussed.
The view that the US stands to make substantial
long-term economic gains at Europe's expense because
of the energy crisis has gained some credence and has
increased European frustration. West German and
French bankers and Japanese Foreign Ministry offi-
cials have charged that the US may be promoting the
shortage, and US officials report that conspiracy
theories are becoming popular.
(continued)
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On the producers' side, substantial crude oil
price increases are expected to be announced at the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meet-
ing that begins tomorrow in Tehran. At the last
OPEC meetings in October-November prices for Persian
Gulf oil were raised by about 37 percent.
The Arab oil ministers may hold a meeting late
this month to hear a report from their Saudi and
Algerian colleagues, who have been traveling in
Europe and the US. Any new policy announcements
that King Faysal might want to make following his
consultations with his oil minister and his meeting
with Secretary Kissinger might surface at this meet-
ing.
Unity among the Arab producing countries appears
fo he increasina)
Kuwait says that it now regards a 50-percent reduc-
tion in production as both politically and economi-
cally desirable.
Some Arabs may be beginning to question the ef-
fects of their own weapon, however. While most pro-
ducers profess to be unworried about Western coun-
termeasures and are not overly concerned about West-
ern public opinion, they do fear that the oil weapon
could bring about a world depression that would af-
fect them. They also realize that the end result of
the cutbacks may be a strengthening of the US economy
relative to those of Europe and Japan. Arab willing-
ness to let oil transit Rotterdam is one sign of this
new concern.
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USSR - EASTERN EUROPE
Soviet and East European leaders are coordinating
efforts to minimize the corrosive effects of wider
contacts with the West. This was undoubtedly a key
topic discussed by party specialists from all Warsaw
Pact countries who met in Moscow on December 18-19.
They probably also developed common propaganda guide-
lines with regard to the talks on European security,
with particular stress on the thorny issue of freer
movement of people and ideas.
Moscow's leading ideologue, Mikhail Suslov,
chaired the sessions. The other participants were
central committee secretaries responsible in their
respective parties for ideology and interparty rela-
tions.
The conferees presumably discussed various plans
for multilateral Communist meetings next year and the.
world conference that the USSR would like to hold
eventually. A gathering of West European Communist
parties is scheduled for early 1974 in Brussels, and
Moscow seems to have enough support for an all-
European Communist meeting by Late 1974. Polish
party chief Gierek, who also met with Soviet party
officials in Moscow last week, may have been given
a special role in paving the way for the all-European.
meeting. The Poles have been asked to perform sim-
ilar tasks in the past.
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USSR-CUBA
An officer of the Soviet Foreign Ministry has
told the US Embassy that Brezhnev will be going to
Cuba around January 15. This confirms reports of
last weekend that the Soviet leader's arrival in
Havana has been deferred from late December to mid-
January.
Brezhnev may have decided that his presence at
Castro's 15th anniversary celebrations on January 2
would be the kind of irritant to the US which he
wishes to avoid at this point in the US-USSR rela-
tionship. The uncertainties of the Middle East sit-
uation, of course, could also have contributed to the
decision.
Whatever the reason, Havana is not pleased,
since the delay implies that Moscow is downgrading
Cuba's importance. Deputy Premier Carlos Rafael
Rodriguez, in Moscow last week preparing for the
visit, implied as much in his departure statement;
he noted that Cubans are "awaiting impatiently"
the Soviet leader's visit.
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SPAIN
The death of Prime Minister Carrero Blanco com-
plicates General Franco's succession plans and com-
pounds the uncertainties of the post-Franco era.
The assassination may have been related to the trial
of the "Carabanchel Ten" dissident labor leaders,
which was slated to begin just an hour after the at-
tack. The trial was temporarily suspended, but late
reports indicate that it was resumed later in the
day.
Vice Prime Minister Fernandez-Miranda automati-
cally became acting prime minister. The constitu-
tion provides that Franco appoint someone to a full
five-year term within ten days, but Franco may de-
cide to keep Fernandez-Miranda on an acting basis
for a longer period. Fernandez-Miranda himself be-
comes a leading contender for permanent appointment,
although he is likely to be challenged by others
who want the post.
Franco may conclude that the assassination
necessitates the appointment of someone further to
the right than Fernandez-Miranda. Potential candi-
dates include General Diez Alegria, chief of the
High General Staff, and President of the Cortes
Rodrigues de Valcarcel, a possible compromise candi-
date. Franco may even decide to reassume the post
himself. The government's policies are not likely
to change significantly in any event.
Meanwhile, security has been tightened in
Madrid. All police have been recalled from holiday
leave and the security service will probably round
up known extremists of all political persuasions.
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NOTES
USSR:
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Chile: There is concern in the junta over the
possibility that its opponents will attempt to re-
focus international attention on Chile with headline-
making activity over the holiday period. Strict se-
curity measures remain in effect throughout the coun-
try, including spot searches of travelers. Although
the left is still far from ready to launch a con-
certed terrorist.campaign, extremists are capable of
mounting a few spectacular operations.
Canada: Revised Canadian estimates show that
there will probably be an additional 1 million tons
of wheat available for export or carry-over for the
crop year ending next July 31. Canada will probably
export between 13 and 15 million tons of wheat dur-
ing the crop year, leaving some 7 to 10 million tons
to be added to domestic stocks.
Zaire: President Mobutu, apparently fearful
that Zairian oil supplies would be diverted to coun-
tries with major oil shortages, has ordered the na-
tionalization of all foreign-owned petroleum facili-
ties in Zaire. The decision was announced shortly
after Mobutu returned from a trip to the Middle East
during which he obtained guarantees that Zaire will
be able to purchase oil products directly from Al-
geria and Libya. The announcement of the takeover,
which includes distribution facilities owned by
Texaco, Shell, and Mobil, implied that the companies
affected will be compensated. In the meantime, they
have been ordered to continue their operations.
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