Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE CHECKLIST
1 MAR. 1962
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1. Berlin corridors
2. Phoumi heads for
a. The two Soviet aircraft
southern corridor
have left the corridor
earlier flights by regularly-scheduled
Pan Am aircraft drew Soviet fighter
reaction but were not molested.
more Soviet transports are scheduled
to fly into Berlin along the northern
corridor, also crossing the central
corridor
? b. Embassy Bonn is inclined to
believe that the USSR will refrain
from radical procedural changes on
access as long as the Thompson-Gromyko
talks are still alive, with immediate
harassments on the autobahn, for
instance, more likely to be of a
technical nature.
He is scheduled to leave for
Thailand Bangkok
this is more than a tactical maneuver
and Phoumi may
be thinking of giving up in Laos.
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3. Algerian settle- a. The question of timing could
ment further become crucial. The rebel government,
delayed which wants De Gaulle to stop the OAS
bloodletting before coming to terms,
has still not fixed a definite date
for the ceasefire announcement. Al-
though it has been able to hold its
followers back from retaliation against
the Europeans, the longer the delay
the less sure this ability to restrain
becomes. Moslem crowds clashed with
police in Oran yesterday. De Gaulle,
In turn, could be forced to move in
without the rebels in the face of
rapidly-evaporating public order.
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4. Congo
a. Attempts to get Adoula and
Tshombe together are no further along.
The latter's qualms about his safety
are a major stumbling block.
b. Yesterday in Elisabethville,
Tshombe bowed to pressure from die-
hard associates, which seems to be
mounting, and permitted an anti-
American street demonstration. Our
Consulate in Elisabethville sees
some signs of erosion of Tshombe's
will to resist Katanga extremists.
c. The central government's
"campaign" in Northern Katanga is
so far a pretty complete mess. The
troops moved into Albertville remain
aimlessly there, and General Mobutu,
their nominal commander, has been
held back from joining them there
by the UN, which fears an assassina-
tion attemnt aeainst him by dissident
troops.
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NOTES
A. West German Foreign Ministry and press are once again expressing
lack of confidence in Ambassador Kroll in Moscow, who has his
own ideas on how to get along with the Russians, but Adenauer
still seems to think Kroll can play a useful role. Among the
ideas attributed to Kroll: support for recognition of the
Oder-Neisse line, political separation of West Berlin from
the Federal Republic, and a $2.5 billion West German credit
to the USSR.
B.
C.
The Soviet space launch attempt now appears to be only days
away.
/but we will need
further evidence before we know exactly what.
a major attack on New Guinea
E. Cuba's economic troubles have resulted in the arrival in Havana
of the head of the Soviet State Bank. His visit could be a
preliminary to a new Soviet economic credit, which is now be-
ing rumored. His specific assignment, however, is probably
tied to payments problems arising from the expected fall-off this
,?ar. in Cuban sugar exports to the Bloc and Cuba's need for an
infusion of convertible currency.
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F. In the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, Governor Brizola
is now talking of following up his seizure of ITT with the
expropriation of all foreign enterprises.
G. Kenya's Jomo Kenyatta, in.London for the constitutional talks
with the British, is now richer by $70,000 in pounds sterling
supplied to him there by the Egyptians.
I. Venezuelan Communists are in the midst of preparations for
new anti-government violence, to come some time after the
opening of Congress on Friday. However, the government's
watchfulness and deep divisions within party ranks should
combine to keep the effort within bounds.
J. The Moroccans have concluded an arms deal with Moscow. They
are playing it down to US representatives, but concede that
it runs to at least $3-4 million and covers some 20-30 tanks
and artillery as well as small arms and ammunition. Marshal
Malinovsky has accepted an invitation to visit Rabat later this
month.
For The President Only?Inn cprrpt
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WATCH COMMITTEE CONCLUSIONS--28 FEBRUARY 1962
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the United
States Intelligence Board concludes that:
No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends deliberately to initiate
direct military action in the immediate future.
BERLIN: Soviet probing tactics against Allied access to
Berliii?Tan probably continue, but bloc military activity in gen-
eral suggests that the Communists do not expect their actions to
provoke military confrontation in the immediate future.
LAOS: Communist military actions will probably continue at
a relatively low level, pending the outcome of Souvanna's talks
with Souphannouvong. If Souvanna and Souphannouvong reach
agreement on a cabinet, continued RIZ opposition could lead to
a significant step-up in military activities.
SOUTH VIETNAM: The increased rate of Viet Cong incidents
in the past week and growing bloc criticism of US military
assistance to South Vietnam may presage a general step-up in
the level of Viet Cong activities, especially in the countryside.
It is not yet clear whether the air attack on Diem's palace on
27 February was an isolated act by officers disaffected with the
Diem regime or whether it was part of a broader coup plot, but there
is no evidence of widespread complicity. ?The Viet Cong apparently
were not connected with the planning for this attack.
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DOCUMENTS OF INTEREST
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
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