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The President's Daily Brief
t 16 November 1968
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THE PRESIDENT'S
DAILY BRIEF
16.NOVEMBER.1968
1. Soviet Union.- observers in
Egypt Egypt recently reported sighting. two
Soviet surface-to-surface missiles.
They say they saw a ballistic missile
which has a 160-mile range, but we
suspect they may have sighted a 20-
mile tactical rocket instead.
2. Czechoslovakia
Either
Soviet weapon system could carry nu-
clear or chemical warheads, but we
think it highly unlikely that Moscow
would give such warheads to the Egyp-
tians.
Dubcek seems to have retreated
from some basic tenets of his earlier
philosophy in his speech opening the
Central Committee meeting. Most not-
ably, he implied that the "class strug-
gle" would have to be reopened--an
ominous hint of a return to repression.
Still caught between Moscow and
the Czech population, Dubcek steered a
middle course which will probably satis-
fy neither. First to be heard from will
be the liberals, who hold a big majority
in the Central Committee itself. Over
140 of the committee's 190 members have
said they, want to address the meeting.
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3. Panama
Peru
. Venezuela
VPlarn told
that he would expel all
US citizens if US aid and Peru's sugar
quota were suspendedil
advised him to calm down ana recognize
the realities of US law.
We will probably see more guer-
rilla activity as the elections of
1 December approach, but our embassy
believes the security forces will be
able to keep the terrorists from
bringing off anything big.
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6. Congo (Kinshasa)
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Top Secret
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Top Secret
FOR THE PRESIDENT'S EYES ONLY
1.) Special Daily Report on North Vietnam
.) North Vietnamese? Reflections of U S
Political Attitudes
Top Secret
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16
16 November 1968
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Special Daily Report on North Vietnam
for the President's Eyes Only
16,November 1968
I. NOTES ON THE SITUATION
Abuses of Demilitarized Zone: North Vietnam's
response to US complaints about shellings from the
Demilitarized Zone typically sidestepped the basis
for the complaints and focused on alleged US viola-
tions of the understanding on which the bombing halt
is based. By putting on the record charges that the
US has intensified the war in the South and continued
"illegal" flights over the North, Hanoi's spokesman
in Paris established a basis for future threats to
end or impede the Paris talks. For the moment, how-
ever, the Communists are stressing their desire to
get on with the talks and avoiding any hint of immi-
nent delaying tactics.
.North Vietnamese Army Forces in South.Vietnam:
A CIA-DIA working group has recently concluded 'a
joint review of all-source intelligence on the num-
ber of North Vietnamese Army personnel serving in
South.Vietnam. This group concluded that there were
.about 140,000-160,000 North-Vietnamese in South
Vietnam at the end of August. -Of this total, about
130,000140,000.were estimated to have beenAn com-
bat units, either North Vietnamese Army units or as
fillers in Viet Cong. units; and 10,000-20,000 were
.in support organizations of the-administrative serv-
ices.
The uncertainties resulting from the widespread
redeployment of forces during the past two months
and the increasingly ambiguous nature of the informa-
tion available on infiltration make it extremely dif-
ficult to provide a more current estimate. It is
thought, however, that the August estimate provides
a reasonable picture of the number of North Vietnam-
ese forces committed in the South at the present
time, including those units that have recently moved
to sanctuary,areas in North Vietnam, Cambodia, and
the base areas in Laos.
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?Le Due Tho En Route to Paris: Hanoi has an-
nounced that Le Due Tho is on his way back to Paris.
He left Hanoi on 15 November, probably aboard one
of North Vietnam's VIP aircraft.
-Soviets and Chinese Slug it Out:
another set-to
between'Soviet and Chinese Communist embassy person-
nel in Hanoi. According to an individual who
had witnessed the event, the Chinese ac--
costed the Soviets in public and berated them for
getting.the'North'Vietnamese to agree to an expan-
sion of the Paris talks. One word'led to another,
and_the Chinese finally started a brief fist fight
The embarrassed North Vietnamese have strengthened
the guard details at both embassies out of concern
that one side or the other might try to'renew.-the
fight.
* * *
North Vietnamese Coastal Shipping: North Viet-
nam's small fleet of coastal merchant ships and
tankers has ventured south of Haiphong for the first
time since US bombing of the North began in 1965.
Until the 1 November bombing halt, the eight large
cargo ships were restricted to runs between Hai-
phong and the North Vietnamese coal ports, northward
to Hong Kong and some Chinese ports. Since then,
communications intercepts have shown nearly all of
them to be operating off southern North Vietnam near
Quang 'Khe or Dong Hoi.
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ouA1
vIL NORTH VIETNAMESE REFLECTIONS OF US POLITICAL
-ATTITUDES ON THE WAR
There is nothing of significance to report
today.
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Top Secret
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