Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
Body:
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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE CHECKLIST
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FEB. 1962
TO11"3"Eekt4-...
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1. Punta del Este
aftermath
a. Post-conference reactions
registered so far find expressions
of geberal contentment coming from
opposite poles. Peru, Colombia,
Guatemala, and Costa Rica have in-
dicated satisfaction with the outcome
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b. Embassy Buenos Aires thinks
that Frondizi, having taken a"juridical"
position at Punta del Este, may now
move ?to placate his critics by bowing
to the demands made on him yesterday
by the Argentine military: a break ih
relations with Cuba and the firing of
Foreign Minister Carcano.
C. The Ecuadorian foreign minister
has been expelled by his Social Christian
? party as a "traitor to the principles
of Western Christian democracy."
d. The Venezuelan government which,
still sees the danger of a subversive
move, is working vigorously to head it
off.
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2. Moscow and Peiping
may be edging toward
diplomatic rupture
Signs are accumulating that their
relations are spiraling downward in
that direction. Despite the gravity
of such a step, ?we think it is a real
possibility. We note these further
pieces of evidence:
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b. The point has come up in dis-
cussions among the students at Peiping
University.
c.
/Peiping, prepared-
-
for the worst, has made new communica-
tions arrangements for its eMbassy in
Switzerland to enable it to keep in
touch with home in the eVent that Mos-
cow cuts its present routes through
Eastern Europe.
d. The Chinese are absenting
themselves from a number of Bloc-
sponsored gatherings, including the
forthcoming Leipzig fair which they
will miss for the first,time in 11
years.
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CHINA
BURMA
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VIENTIANE
Ban Hin,Heirp Pok Sone
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Dien Bien Phu
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SAVABOUR
Nong Het
uong Sen
Xieng Khouan
Vientiane
? Nong Khai
?THA I L AND
NORTHERN LAOS
1110 GOVERNMENT Forces
41?10 KONG LE - PATHET LAO
71KONG LE - PATHET LAO AREA
? GOVERNMENT (MEO) BASE AREAS
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STATUTE MILES
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Approximate
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SOUTH
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VIETNAM
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3.
Laos
a. The rebels have not moved in
on Nam Tha but are keeping 'the pressure
on. They began putting down a mortar
barrage on the town's airstrip this
morning and are reinforcing their forces
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in the area.
b. Phoumi, trying to develop
counterpressures, yesterday ordered
his forces in the Plaine des Jarres
and in Luang Prabang province to under-
take "intense harassing"
action against
rebel-held points.
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4.
Nasir promoting
He apparently, sees no
advantage to
Middle East turbulence
himself in the status quo anywhere-in
the area, possibly excepting Lebanon:
a. His incessant propaganda attacks
on Saudi Arabia and Jordan during the .
past several months have begun to give
them the litters.
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c. Nasar is also refusing sug-
gestions that he patch up his quarrel
with Iraq.
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(cont'd)
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I. I
d. The Egyptians have begun to
fish'iniran"s political waters. They
have offered the National Ftont op-
ponents of the Amini government the
use of Radio Cairo, the most powerful
in the Middle East. as a propaganda
outlet. 50X1
e. in Syria, the stability of the
post-Nasir regime is jeopardized by a
widening split within the Syrian Army
Revolutionary Command between those
who want to keep some of Nasir's social
reforms intact and those who want
things much as they were before.
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NOTES
A. Cuba has announced withdrawal from the sugar market because
its "available stocks are totally committed," but at the
same time admits to the Communist countries that the real reason
is that the sugar market is "totally demoralized" because of
war rumors and alleged availability of "very cheap second-
hand sugar from socialist countries." Cuba urges all Socialist
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countries to set a f3 oor of $.025 per pound FOB Cuba for raw
sugar.
B. Mongolian representatives at the UN are telling their US
counterparts that they are eager to have non-Communist diplo-
matic and trade ties, coupling this with the hint that they are
in a somewhat uncomfortable squeeze between the USSR and Com-
munist China.
C. The inflammatory anti-American pitch of recent public statements
by top Haitian officials has put US citizens on the island on
edge. President Duvalier, a voodoo cultist, has apparently gone
off on an irrational tangent.
D. Ghana's trend toward deeper economic entanglement with the Bloc
has been marked by the establishment in Accra of a Committee for
Economic Cooperation with Eastern Countries. Ghana's aid com-
mitments from the Bloc already run to at least $182,000,000 and
more are probably in the making.
E. There was a sizeable anti-government demonstration in the
Portuguese city of Oporto yesterday. The city was reported quiet
this morning.
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WATCH COMMITTEE CONCLUSIONS--31 JANUARY 1962
On the Basis of findings by its Watch Committee, the United
States Intelligence Board concludes that:
No Sino-Soviet bloc country intends deliberately to initiate
direct military action in the immediate future.
BERLIN: Communist military activity and recent Soviet
actions in immediate Berlin area do not suggest that the
Communists expect to risk military confrontation over Berlin
in the immediate future.
LAOS: Current evidence indicates that North Vietnamese forces
in La5.-'fi'ave been substantially reinforced in recent months. En-
emy forces have taken strong military action to counter government
pressures and are in position to threaten government-held centers.
However, a deliberate 'resumption of general hostilities by the
enemy does not appear to be indicated. Efforts to achieve a
political solution continue.
SOUTH VIETNAM: Although counteractions by government forces
have recently shown some success, the Viet Cong continues its high
rate of subversive and small-scale military activity and retains
its capability to conduct large-scale attacks on preselected targets
in some areas of the country at any time.
INDONESIA: The Indonesians are continuing to explore pos-
sibilities for a peaceful settlement on favorable terms, while
at the same time continuing military preparations for an attack
on West New Guinea. Further incidents are possible.
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DOCUMENT OF INTEREST
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
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