WORLD SUPPLIES OF OILS AND FATS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80-00926A001500010006-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: R
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 5, 2002
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: September 21, 1949
• Content Type: REPORT

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RESTRICTED US OFFI lv
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY REPORT NO.
INFORMATION REPORT CD NO.
COUNTRY International
SUBJECT World Supplies of Oils and Fats
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Documentary
I. Available on loan from the CIA Library is a copy of an address by
Mr J C A Faure, partner in Lever Brothers, at the International
Association of Seed Crushers Congress, Montreux, 29 Jun 49.
2. The address contains an estimate of world-wide production of oils
and fats and the factors entering into such estimates. Stress is
placed on the influence which US. oil and fat supplies have on the
international market and an attempt is made to determine whether
the US., will be a net importer or net exporter of oils and fats
this year.
3. Attached to the address are tables giving statistics on European
net imports of oils and fats, US production of animal and vege-
table fats and oils and, of particular interest, total estimated
deficits in world export supplies and European production against
pre-war figures.
CLASSIFICATION RESTRICTED/US OFFICIALS ONLY
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ADDRESS GIVEN BY PAR. J. C. A. FAURE AT THE
INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
SEED CRUSHERS CONGRESS, rdONTREUX
29th June, 1949
Mr. Chairman, Ladies and Gentlemen,
I am happy to see so many delegates at our Congress to-day as it shows that
they have survived the past twelve months in spite of the address that I delivered
last year.
I feel I should apologise for again addressing this Congress, as I certainly
have no wish to monopolize this platform to talk on the subject of world supplies
of oils and fats.
However, in view of the decline in prices that has taken place in dollar
markets and, to a lesser extent, also in sterling markets, I welcome this oppor-
tunity which your Chairman has afforded me to give my views on the situation
to-day. I believe that many members of this Congress will wish to know whether
I have changed my opinion on the world situation. in view of the developments of
the past twelve months.
I believe that many of you know that for a number of years I have been
greatly interested in statistical studies. I know from experience the value of
statistics, but I also know the danger of placing too much reliance on figures
only as a means of judging market prospects. Estimates of prospective supplies
form only one of the many factors that determine price levels, and this is par-
ticularly true of the post-war years, when a number of new factors emerged, as
for instance, restricted purchasing power, dollar scarcity, government buying
and selling, unilateral trade agreements, politics and so on.
In my previous addresses it has been my aim to place before you a general
over-all picture of past, present and future world supplies. Last year I gave,
in addition, figures showing how much the world would have to produce to meet the
pre-war average per capita consumption, taking into account the increase in world
population. This was not intended as a forecast of real demand but was a simple
mathematicall,calculation. I tried to show you how great was the gap between
supplies in-the world and the world's physical needs. I was most careful to
avoid any forecast of market prospects or price levels. It would need someone
with greater courage to do that'. I need hardly point out that there is a very
great difference between effective or real demand and the world's needs.
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Let us then examine the world supply position as I see it to-day.
First, we will take the European imports. You will find these in Table 'A'.
Last year these reached 2,296,000 tons for ten countries. This was about 160,000
tons more than. in 1947. Although an improvement, the total still represents only
6325 of the pre-war imports into the same countries. In other words the deficit
in European imports is still over 1,300,000 tons compared with 1938. I think it
is right here to point out that this deficit is not evenly distributed over all
the countries; some are in a very much better position than others and it looks
as if in 1949 some countries will exceed their pre-war net imports.
Next, let us examine world exports. These you will find in Table 'B'.
After deducting U. S. A. requirements, but inaluding.exports from the U. S. A.,
total shipments of the principal oils and fats to Europe and the rest of the
world were 2,933,000 tons last year. This is only 1% more than I estimated at
Brussels a year ago. This year I estimate that world exports will be about
300,000 tons more and in 1950 there should be a further increase of around
270,000 tons. The principal increases are expected from Africa, North America,
Indonesia, Malaya and, perhaps, the Philippines. A potential important source
is the Argentine, where stocks of oils and animal fats have been accumulating.
However, it is quite impossible to predict when that country will release its
supplies on world markets. Ceylon suffered from a serious drought in 1948 and
this is having an adverse effect on her 1949 copra production. Prospects of
substantial soya bean shipments from Manchuria look even more remote than a
year ago, whilst developments in China hardly justify optimism for improved sup-
plies from that vast area. Hopes of increased supplies from India have also been
dashed by unfavourable weather. The Indian groundnut crop for 1949 is estimated
at 105 less than last year's - a reduction of 338,000 tons. The sesame seed
crop estimate is 20% lower than last year. These two represent a loss of about
140,000 tons of oil.
I mentioned that increased supplies might perhaps come from the Philippines.
The copra position there is rather peculiar. In the first four months of this
year exports of copra and coconut oil in terms of copra were only 163,000 tons,
about 60 per cent of the quantity shipped in the first four months of last year.
According to well informed opinion, it is not expected that during the first six
months of this year total exports will reach 250,000 tons, yet the total exportable
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surplus for the whole of this year has been estimated at 750,000 tons copra and
oil, calculated as copra. This would mean, therefore, that during; the second
half of this year the Philippines will have to find a market for 500,000 tons or
200,000 tons more than was shipped during the second half of 1948. I also men-
tioned that North America is one of the sources from which increased supplies
may be expected, but I shall deal with the American situation in a few moments.
In Table 'C' you will find the revised estimates of European production.
Last year I estimated the total production of all oils and fats in Europe,
but excluding Eastern Europe,.at 2,550,000 tons. I find that the preliminary
figures for 1948 show a total production of 2,480,000 tons. You will remember
that in my estimate last year I allowed for an increase in the butter production
of 87,000 tons, and as weather conditions in the Spring were exceptionally good,
I added another 50,000 tons for luck. This brought my total butter estimate, as
butter fat, up to 929,000 tons. The actual production now appears to have reached
only'850,000 tons. Had I not added the 50,000 tons for luck, my estimate would
have been closer.
The olive oil production of the 1947/48 crop was also over-estimated last
year and, according to the latest advices, only reached 790,000 tons, which is
150,000 tons less than my last year's estimate. I am here only dealing with
olive oil produced in European countries. Production in non-European countries
is not, therefore, included. The production of butter and olive oil together
fell short of my estimate by 230,000 tons. On the other hand, my forecast of
lard, tallow and vegetable oils was too low by 160,000 tons. On balance, there-
fore, total production fell short of my expectations of a year ago by 70,000 tons.
As far as 1949 is concerned, available supplies from European production are
.expected to be a little below those of last year. This is due to the very poor
1948,,/49 olive oil crop, which I have included in supplies for 1949, as most of
the olive oil is normally consumed in the following year. The 1948/49 olive oil
production in European countries is estimated at only 420,000 tons compared with
790,000 tons for the previous season. Against this, however, I am expecting an
increase in the production of butter and other animal fats as well as vegetable
oils. The butter estimate for 1949 is 980,000 tons or 130,000 tons more than
last year. On balance, I estimate the available supplies from European pro-
duction during 1949 at 2,400,000 tons or 80,000 tons less than in 1948.
I think it is right that I should point out that olive oil is in a unique
position and has not in the past greatly influenced the oil and fat markets. It
is an oil t ied F } ei W O02FO 24actWl2 P O 6 1 0001900 a olive
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oil crop does not necessarily mean a big exportable surplus. Neither does a small
crop indicate that the whole shortage has to be made up by importation of other
vegetable oils. A short olive oil crop has therefore comparatively little influence
on markets.
In Table 'D' I have again set out the estimated combined deficit of European
production and world exports in relation to 1938. You will see from these that
I am adhering fairly closely to my estimates of a year ago. Last year, I esti-
mated the combined deficit for 1948 at 2,100,000 tons - I now make this 2,120,000
tons. The combined deficit for 1949 is worse by 100,000 tons.
These Tables show the improvement that took place last year over 1947.
In 1948 supplies for Europe and the rest of the world, but excluding the U. S. A.
increased by 880,000 tons over 1947. In 1949 the increase over 1947 is expected
to be nearly 1,100,000 tons.
I do not think we have reason to be satisfied with these improvements. Con-
sidering the very serious world shortage after the end of the war, the present
rate of the increase of supplies is still lamentably slow, for there is still a
deficit of around 2 million tons on 1938.
This is also reflected in the price levels in sterling to-day, which are
still 4 to 5 times above pre-war levels. Thus, the world supply situation failed
in 1948 to reach expectations, and prospects for 1949 are not as bright as I
thought a year ago. If we look around to-day we see a picture of confusion such
as we have never before experienced. In a world of shortage there are areas with
large surpluses that cannot be marketed. We have seen the development of two
separate world markets - the dollar market, and the sterling and other soft cur-
rency markets - and there is a great gap between the two.
Let us look first at the soft currency markets. Here we still suffer from
very high price levels, although they have come down quite a bit from their peak.
Consumption remains below pre-war levels in most European countries, though for
different reasons. In some countries consumption is restricted by severe ra-
tioning, in others by high prices. Again in others, war privations have so al-
tered people's diets that many believe they are having as much fat to-day as they
had before the war, and do not appear to realize that they are only getting four-
fifths of what they had before the war.
Thus we see that restricted consumption, combined with_ 1 pplies has
caused some reduction in price levels.
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In the hard currency markets on the other hand, a very heavy fall in prices
has occurred, particularly in the U. S. A. where most oils and fats have fallen
to pre-war average levels - some have even dropped below them.
Let us try to find the cause of the widening gap between dollar and sterling
markets which, incidentally, is not confined only to oils and fats. Obviously,
the principal cause is the shortage of dollars, but in oils and fats there is a
contributory cause. As we know the decline in the available supplies is confined
almost exclusively to soft currency areas. Compared with pre-war, we have lost
Manchurian soya beans; supplies from Indonesia are still only half pre-war;
Indian groundnuts,-Egyptian cottonseed and whale oil are all down; and, last
but not least, as you have just heard, production in Europe is still much below
pre-war. You will appreciate that all these losses are in soft currency areas.
Against this, production in hard currency areas has increased materially. The
United States are up 1 million tons on pre-war; the Philippine production is
higher; the Argentine is growing a large sunflower crop; Brazil is stepping
up her production of groundnuts, etc., Canadian production is greater, and so
on.
The final result of all these losses in soft currency areas and gains in
hard currency areas is that the total world production is very close to pre-war.
However, soft currency countries are producing insufficient to meet their require-
ments, whilst the hard currency areas produce too much for their own needs. I
have tried to work out the surplus in hard currency areas over and above their
own requirements, together with the shortage in soft currency areas on the basis
of their pre-war per capita consumption, but I have found it very difficult to
make the calculation with any degree of accuracy. The surplus in dollar areas
worked out at between 1 million and 12 million tons whilst the shortage else-
where came between 33 million to 4 million tons.
Marshall Aid is helping appreciably to cause a flow of oils from the hard
to the soft areas but it can only go part of the way. Apart from Marshall Aid,
the two markets have become separate watertight compartments, and we may see at
the same time weak dollar markets and strong sterling markets for the same com-
modity. We may quite well see advancing dollar markets simultaneously with de-
clining sterling prices.
Many unilateral trade agreements have been concluded between a number of
governments. These agreements restrict the free flow of world markets and al-
though they may favour some countries they are detrimental to others.
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I have set out some data in Table 'E". In view of the imo aanI influence that
the U. S. A. oil and fat supplies have on the international market, an attempt
has been made to estimate the oils and fats production and requirements in 1949,
and by this means to assess whether the U. S. A. is likely to be a net importer
or a net exporter of oils and fats this,year.
I should point out that an estimate for 1949 is extremely hazardous. All I
can do is to take as a basis farmers' intentions to plant and calculate what the
yield might be by taking the average yields per acre over a recent five year period.
It is not a very satisfactory method and it is most unlikely that the yield will
be exactly average. However, heavy snows in America last winter assured plenty of
moisture in the soil in the early Spring and there is, therefore, no reason for
expecting a low yield. On this basis then, the total production for the twelve
months season 1949/50 may be estimated to be about the same as for the previous
season. Total vegetable oil production should show a reduction of about 160,000
tons but this is counter-balanced by an expected increase in animal fats of the
same tonnage. For the calendar year, January/December 1949, I would estimate
total production at about 80,000 tons more than in 1948. Stocks of oils and fats
at the end of 1948 totalled 750,000 tons. This was 170,000 tons more than a year
ago. Pre-war, normal stocks at the end of the year were about 1 million tons, so
that stocks at the end of last year were still below the normal pre-war average.
Imports last year, in terms of oil, amounted to 570,000 tons. Exports were 450,000
tons. The net imports of 120,000 tons apparently went to build up the stock posi-
tion, as I have just shown. So far as 1949 is concerned, I do not think it prob-
able that the United States will again import more than they will export. In
fact it seems more likely that exports will exceed her imports. However, for the
purpose of calculation I am assuming that imports and exports will balance each
other this year.
Before the war, per capita consumption in America was 70 lbs. per annum. In
1948 it was just over 68 lbs., and as you will see from the Tables, the consumption
this year is expected to reach 69 lbs. There are indications that consumption for
edible purposes is increasing. On the other hand, synthetic detergents are partly
replacing oils and fats for soapmaking. For this year, consumption for edible
purposes is estimated at 44 lbs., which is still 2 lbs. under pre-war, and 25 lbs.
for non-edible usage.
It should be remembered that the enormous production in the United States is
not a result of natural supply and demand. It is the result of direct interven-
tion by the U. S. A. Government - of that Government's guaranteeing high
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minimum prices to farmers. The U. S. A. Government has been obliged to buy large
quantities of linseed, soya beans and groundnuts at prices far above current mar-
ket levels. Minimum prices have again been guaranteed to farmers in 1949 so that
the prospects 'of another very large crop of oilseeds in the U. S. A. are once
again very bright. This is bound to result, however, in the U. S. A. Government
being obliged to add large quantities of new crop seeds to their present holdings
for which, some time or other, a market will have to be found. It seems hardly
reasonable to expect that the U. S. A. Government will continue indefinitely to
pay farmers high prices for quantities that are obviously in excess of American
requirements and are difficult to dispose of outside the U. S. A.
As I have already indicated, the Tables show that although U. S. exports
have proved a great blessing to Europe, her total imports and exports in 1949 may
more or less balance. From the point of view of world supplies, therefore, the
U. S. A. does not contribute to the rest of the world. Whatever quantity America
ships to Europe, whether by Marshall Aid or by outright sale, she has to replace
by importing insome other form from other parts of the world.
Now let us have a look at price levels. Dollar prices must be considered
too low and unless prices recover in America, there is a danger that U. S. pro-
duction will start to decline in 1950. This would be unfortunate. I have just
shown that U. S. production and U. S. requirements are expected to balance this
year. Therefore, any decline in U. S. crops in future would mean that America
would be obliged to augment her own requirements by larger imports. Thus a new
buyer with full buying powers would be created. This would prove a very great
strain on supplies in the rest of the world.
Sterling prices, on the other hand, are still much too high. Whale oil at
-L90 to -bl00, palm oil at the same level, copra at about -b60, reflect the shortage
of oils and fats in soft currency areas as I have stated earlier. What then is
the conclusion we can come to?
We have a surplus in hard currency territory with very low price levels.
We have a shortage in the rest of the world where very high prices still prevail.
This surplus is inadequate to cover the shortage even if by some means it
could all be made available to the rest of the world. Obviously, therefore, the
only conclusion we can come to is that it is most essential that production be
increased very materially in all soft currency areas of the world.
Before I close, I would like to say a few words about synthetic detergents.
Synthetic detergents are not a new discovery.DL', he Food and
AAU
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Agriculture Organisation, first successful experiments were made as long ago as 1865.
The first world war and the resultant fat shortage and high prices gave considerable
impetus to further research. This died down after prices had receded but was re-
vived once again in Germany in 1935, when the policy of guns before butter prevented
the importation of all but the most essential raw materials. It was not until the
second world war that production began to assume importance.
The Witten plant in Germany produced annually 31,000 tons of fatty acids of
which 5% was used for the production of edible fats, the rest was all required for
soap and other industrial purposes.
The greatest advance, however, was made in the U. S. A. in the post-war period
where production of synthetic detergents reached 125,000 tons in 1945, 200,000 tons
in 1947. It has been estimated that production in 1949 will be about 270,000 tons.
The rapid growth in America is obviously due to the very high price levels of oils
and fats in the post-war years. Plans had been prepared to erect additional plants
to bring total production up to 450,000 tons for 1952, but following the heavy
price decline, these plans have apparently been dropped.
According to expert opinion, the 1949 production is likely to be the peak for
the next few years, and it is expected that after this year there may be some de-
cline.
That synthetic detergents have come to stay may be taken as certain. They
offer definite advantages over soap in hard water districts. They have also
proved more satisfactory in certain cosmetics and in washing quickly cooled sur-
faces such as motorcars, streets, buildings, etc. (In America they even use it
to wash vegetables:::)
That synthetic soaps have had an effect on other soap production is also clear.
In 1947 the total tonnage of oils and fats used in soap in the U. S. A. was
1,060,000 tons, in 1948 it was 955,000, that is a reduction of 100,000 tons or 10%.
There can be no doubt that the production of synthetic detergents has con-
tributed largely to the heavy decline in U. S. tallow prices but I am inclined
to think that the tonnage of oils and fats that will be replaced by synthetics
has been over-estimated.
In the U. K. good progress has also been made in post-war years. The in-
centive there, is not so much high prices of oils and fats as the fact that soap
is still severely rationed, whilst synthetic detergents are free. One must con-
elude, therefore, that there is further scope for expansion. No estimates are
published of production or sales in Great Britain, but i
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that the total production of "Teepol", the raw material, will equal 30,000 tons
of oils and fats in 1949.
Other countries have also passed the experimental stage and are beginning
production.
The final conclusion of those well informed is that it is unlikely that the
world shortage of oils and fats will be greatly relieved by synthetics, and fur-
ther, that the growth of synthetic detergents is not likely to be as great in
other countries as it has been in the U. S. A.
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OFFICIALS ONLy
EUROPE: NET IMPORTS OF OILSEEDS, OILS ANT) FATS (1)
(Oil Equivalent)
Metric Tons (000)s
United Kingdom &
British whale oil
France
Belgium
Netherlands
Sweden
Switzerland
Italy
Portugal
Eire
Germany
TOTAL ABOVE
Denmark
Norway (4)
TOTAL NET EXPORTS
GRAND TOTAL NET
IMPORTS (A-B) ,
1938 1947
1948 1948 as %
of 1938
1,488.7
505.6
1,230.6
11 339.6
1,313.1
334.5
66.2
131.1
(2) 145.0
1.87.0
142.6
85.3
151.5
116.1 {
136.1
{
86.7
55.8
43.0
49.6
57.2 75.8
76.2
133.2
141.9 61.0
51.1
36.6
17.9 27.7
32.0
178.8
11.6
10.8
1,093.3
A
(3) 40.0
opx.
(3
131.3
3,607.7
2,138.6
2,295.9
63.6
83.6
52.8
58.0
69.4
43.5
47.3
48.3
111.0
127.1
3,480.6
1 2,038.5
2,189.6
(1) Including butter and margarine (actual weight basis)
(2) Represents I. E. F. C. import allocation (includes est.
imports of butter)
(3) Estimates for Bi-zone only
(4) Excluding imports of whale and fish oils since these are not
included in the official Norwegian returns.
Compiled f
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T A B L E B
WORLD 0 EXPORTS FROM M,4AIN PRODUCING COUNTRIES OF PRINCIPAL DI
BEARING MATERIALS PLUS EXPORTS OF OILS AND FATS
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(In terms of oil equivalent)
(Long tons of 2,240 lbs.)
1938 Actual
4,500,000
1947 Actual
2,733,000
- 1,800,000
1948 Preliminary
2,933,000
- 1,600,000
1949 Estimated
3,214,000
- 1,300,000
1950 Estimated
3,486,000
- 1,100,000
1951 Estimated
3,564,000
- 900,000
Excludes butter, shortening, margarine, castor and lesser drying oils,
but includes linseed oil. Anticipated requirements of U. S. A. have
been deducted D. S. S. R. excluded.
T A B L E C
x EUROPEAN PRODUCTION OF OILSEEDS, OILS AND FATS
(In terms of oil equivalent)
(Long tons of 2,240 lbs.)
1938
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
3,000,000
1,800,000
- 1,200,000
2,480,000
- 520,000
2,400,000
- 600,000
2,500,000
- 500,000
2,800,000
- 200,000
x Includes butter production (fat content) but excludes oil
and fat production of U. S. S. R., Poland,Rumania, Hungary,
Bulgaria and Yugoslavia.
T A B L E D
TOTAL ESTIMATED DEFICITS IN WORLD EXPORTS
SUPPLIES AND EUROPEAN PRODUCTION (B plus C)
(In terms of oil equivalent)
(Long tons of 2,240 lbs.)
Total Deficit
compared with 1938
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
Last year's
estimates
This year's
estimates
2,800,000
3,000,000
2,100,000
2,120,000
1,800,000
1,900,000
1,500,000
1,600,000
1,100,000
1,100,000
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TOTAL PRODUCTION OF ANIMAL AND VEGETABLE FATS
AND OILS FROM DOMESTIC MATERIALS
Thousands of tons of 2,240 lbs.
TABLE E ki
U. S. A.
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Average Prelim. Estimated Estimated Estimated Forecast
1937-41 1947 1948 1949 1947 - 48 1948-49 1949-50
Butter: (actual wt.)
Creamery 794 594 542 592
Farm 193 141 141 148
Total Butter 987 735 683 740
Lard & Rendered
Pork Fat
Federally
Inspected 546 769 750 800
Other 321 315 307 300
Total Lard 867 1,084 1,057 1,100
Edible Tallow,
Animal Stearine, 96 82 61 68
Olee Stock & Oil
Total Edible
Animal Fats .1,950 1,901 1,801 1,908
Edible Vegetable
Oi is
Maize Oil 69 110 91 110
Cottonseed Oil 657 499 653 735
Olive Oil 3 1 1 2
Groundnut Oil 38 59 63 35
Soyabean Oil 187 688 716 700
Total Edible
Veg. Oils 954 1,357 1,523 1,582
Inedible Tallow
and Greases 521 903 867 840
Fish and Marine
Mamma I Oi 1 s
(excl. Cod &
Liver Oils) 106 51 48 50
Linseed Oil 124 201 315 250
Tung Oil 1 6 8 7
Other Industrial
Oils (incl. Cod &
Liver Oils) 8 16 19 19
GRAND TOTAL 3,664 4,435 4,581 4,656
531
558
610
141
147
150
672
705
760
727
792
850
300
290
310
1,027
1,082
1,160
63
67
70
1,762
1,854
1,990
90
112
110
569
737
736
1
2
2
56
36
30
684
737
630
1,400
1,624
1,508
885
837
850
53
49
55
259
301
260
7
7
7
20
18
20
4,386
4,690
4,690
Sources: -
Calendar Years - 1937-48 - U. S. Dept. of Agriculture
1949 Unilever Estimates
Crop Years - 1947/48 - 'Mainly U. S. Dept. of Commerce
1948/49 - Estimates
1949/50 - Unilever Estimates
Approved For Release 2002/07/24: CIA-RDP80-00926AO01500010006-0
 y y _ ~ r
Wage 13 A -,..,,.A r.... o,.i,...~,.')nn')1n71 )A . rin DF DQA nnn~cnnn~cnnn~nnnc n 25X1
T A B L E F
Thousands of tons of 2:,240 lbs.
Average
1937-41 1946 1947 Preliminary Forecast
Production from domestic
materials
3,664
3,952
4,435
4,581
4,656
Stocks at 1st January
990
771
565
577
748
Imports of oils and factory
production of oils from
imported materials
881
365
600
571
600
Exports, re-exports and
shipments to U. S. terri-
tories
200
390
396
330
400
Stocks at 31st December
1,028
565
577
748
850
Apparent disappearance yS
4,307
4,147
4,618
4,651
4,754
Civilian disappearance
4,284
4,081
4,555
4,607
4,700
Civilian 'Per Capital
disappearance (fat content)
Food
lbs.
46
lbs.
40
lbs.
42
lbs.
422
lbs.
44
Non-food
24
24
27
26
25
Total
70
64
69
682
69
x Unilever Estimates
ql "Apparent disappearance" includes adjustments for changes in Government and transit
stocks, as well as fluctuations in warehouse stocks recorded above.
As the figures in the table above have been compiled for the purpose of calculating
'apparent disappearance', imports and exports figures do not represent the true trade
balance in oils and fats inasmuch as imports cover only imported oils plus factory pro-
duction from imported materials in the year specified, and exports exclude the oil equiva-
lent of exported oilseeds.
The overall trade balance in oilseeds, oils and fats (in terms of oil) is as follows: -
THOUSANDS OF TONS OF 2,240 lbs.
Average
Preliminary
Forecast
1937-41
1946
1947
1948
1949
Oil Equiv. of Oilseeds
382
313
451
346
Say
370
Oils and Fats
519
121
185
223
it
230
Total
901
434
636
569
600
Oil Equiv. of Domestic
Oilseeds
14
16
44
118
Say
200
Oil Equiv. of Other Oilseed
s 13
-
10
-
-
Oils and Fats
200
390
396
330
"
400
Total
227
406
450
448
600
NET IB,iPORT BALANCE
674
28
186
121
Includes shipments to non-contiguous territories and fat content of soap exported.
The U. S. Department of Agriculture include only groundnuts exported for crushing and
are lower by 10,000 and 13,000 tons (oil equivalent) in comparison with figures pub-
lished by U. S. Department of Commerce for 1947 and 1948 respectively.
Sources: 1937-48 - U. S. Dept. of
1949 - Unilever Estima
Approved For Release 2002/07/24: CIA-RDP80-00926AO0150 0100 6-0