NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028200010004-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 5, 2006
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: October 21, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 21, 1975
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USSR: A Soviet E-II class nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine was
sighted on October 19 in the South China Sea en route to the Indian Ocean. It is
accompanied by a submarine tender. The arrival of this submarine will be the first
time that an E-I I has been in the Indian Ocean since February 1974, and the fourth
time this type of boat will have operated there.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 21, 1975
The Khmer communists apparently intend to take advantage of the attention
Prince Sihanouk received when he addressed the United Nations early this month by
allowing the Prince to visit several Arab, African, and European countries beginning
in November.
The Prince's itinerary includes Syria, Iraq, Tanzania, and possibly Sudan,
Somalia, and the two Yemens. Sihanouk may also visit Algeria, Egypt, Yugoslavia,
and Romania, which reportedly plan to open embassies in Phnom Penh. The Prince
will probably express Cambodia's verbal support for various Arab and African
liberation movements and thank those countries that supported the Cambodian
communists during the war.
Sihanouk probably prefers the foreign banquet circuit to the restrictions the
Khmer communists placed on him in Phnom Penh, but he may not be entirely
reconciled to his reduced role as a good-will ambassador.
The Prince may not yet have made a final decision on his plans. He is doubtless
aware, however, that his chances of influencing the domestic policies of the Khmer
communists are practically nil and that he is, in effect, an anachronism in
Cambodia's communist society.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 21, 1975
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Commercial
activity again at standstill ...................................... 1
SYRIA: Apprehensions concerning
Syrian military intentions in Golan .............................. 2
...................... 4
CAMBODIA: Sihanouk to
make good-will tour .......................................... 5
FOR THE RECORD ......................................... 9
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 21, 1975
Scattered incidents occurred last night in Beirut, but there was no resumption
of the heavy fighting that had erupted Sunday night. Commercial activity in Beirut
was again at a standstill yesterday as barricades went back up in many areas of the
city.
The fighting Sunday night, which for the first time spread to the Ras Beirut
area-where many American residents live-apparently involved Sunni Muslim
residents of the Ras an-Nabeh region and Christians of Ashrafiyah. The origins of the
clash are obscure, but the US embassy reports that it received a second-hand report
that Lebanese Communist Party members in Ras an-Nabeh were preparing for battle
as early as Sunday morning.
On the political front, no progress has been made toward an agreement that
might conceivably put an end to the fighting. Yesterday's scheduled meeting of the
political reform subcommittee of the national dialogue committee was postponed
until tomorrow.
The Lebanese parliament is to meet today, and Kamal al-Asad, a Shia Muslim,
is expected to be re-elected speaker without opposition. Rumors are spreading,
however, that leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt and his supporters in parliament will
boycott the session, possibly indicating a developing split between the Shia Muslims
and the leftists. In any event, the litically impotent parliament is likely to have
he conflict.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Recent actions have stimulated apprehension about Syria's military intentions.
A news service correspondent told a US embassy official in Damascus on Friday that
Israeli allegations that Syria is evacuating civilians from the Golan Heights are
accurate.
The correspondent also reported that Syria intends to occupy a piece of
Israeli-controlled territory so that Secretary Kissinger will have to return to Syria
and negotiate a comprehensive settlement. Another correspondent said, "If anything
happens, it will be a quick two-day action, after which Syria will stop operations and
the US will restrain Israel."
I observed large-scale Syrian troop movements toward Damascus
and points south of the city on October 17-18. The sightings occurred along the
road from Horns, north of the capital, to Dara near the Jordanian border, with
convoys observed as far as 25 miles south of Damascus. Fifteen unidentified tanks
on transporters and six to eight "large" troop convoys were noted. The source
claimed that the convoys contained enough troops to man at least two brigades.
Forty empty tank transporters were observed moving north along the same route.
The US attache in Damascus cannot confirm the reports of large-scale troop
movements
The possibility of a limited Syrian military operation, however, cannot be
discounted. Ambassador Murphy commented that, while a quick thrust into the
Golan with the expectation that the US would prevent large-scale Israeli retaliation
may not represent agreed-upon operational strategy, the two correspondents may
have turned up an option under consideration by the Syrian government.
It is also possible that the story was planted as part of a Syrian effort to
increase pressure on the US and Israel to refocus diplomatic efforts on the Golan
front. In any case, Syria appears to be improving its military capability on the Golan
front, thus permitting President Asad to choose from a range of policy options.
October 21, 1975
Meanwhile, Asad continued his verbal assault on the second Sinai
disengagement agreement in a lengthy interview published on Saturday in a Kuwaiti
newspaper. Reiterating his opposition to further peace negotiations concerning the
Golan Heights unless the Palestine Liberation Organization takes part, the Syrian
leader said he had been offered an opportunity to engage in talks similar to those in
which Egyptian President Sadat had participated. Asad said he had refused because
the talks were aimed at isolating the Palestinian problem.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 21, 1975
Asad criticized Egypt's anti-Soviet stance as an attempt to obscure the
Palestinian issue by offering Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states the choice
between Egypt and communism. He denied that Syria and the Palestinians were
"chessmen in the hand of the Soviets," and said Syria had rejected Moscow's offer
of a treaty of peace and friendship.
The Syrian President said that during his recent trip to the USSR, the Soviets
had shown a readiness to back Syria's struggle to recover the occupied territories. He
said he was "confident that we will be provided with arms."
Asad did not reveal Syrian intentions regarding the renewal of the mandate of
the UN force on the Golan Heights, which expires on November 30. He noted,
however, that the existence of the observer force was no barrier to Syrian military
action. Recalling that Syria had insisted that the force be called an observer rather
than an emergency force like the one in the Sinai, Asad declared "When we decide
to wage a war, these observers will not be an obstacle."
F
If A Syrian military spokesman announced yesterday that some Syrians had
clashed with an Israeli patrol on the Golan Heights. The incident reportedly took
place seven miles northeast of Al Qunaytirah, the same area where two Syrian
shepherds were killed by the Israelis last week.
Tel Aviv has played down the incident. Israeli military sources acknowledge
that shots were fired across the UN buffer line but said the fire had not been
returned. The Israelis said they were not even certain who had fired the shots, and
they reported no casualties.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 21, 1975
The UN Security Council met yesterday, at Spain's behest, to discuss King
Hassan's plan to have 350,000 unarmed Moroccan citizens march into Spanish
Sahara. The Security Council president said the members would consult privately
before meeting again.
Spanish Prime Minister Arias chaired a long cabinet meeting in Madrid to
discuss how to react to the Moroccan march. Arias also met with the National
Defense Council. the military policy body. No decisions were announced.-
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