HISTORICAL NOTES ON THE USE OF AIR POWER AS A WEAPON OF INTERDICTION

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CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2
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Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 SECRET CIA/RR ER 66-8 May 1966 INTELLIGENCE REPORT HISTORICAL NOTES ON THE USE OF AIR POWER AS A WEAPON OF INTERDICTION USAF review(s) completed. DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE SECRET GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification MORI/CDF Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 i''iis ntatt rral c)ntains inns rmation ,.Hecting t ? i la- tional l)efenst of the Unitt d States within the ne tn- in,g of the espionage laws, Title 18. USC, Sec ' 93 timi 794, the transmission or revelation of wl. ch in ;my urunur an unauthorized heron is prom ihi ed l,; law. Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 FOREWORD Prior to the current operations in Vietnam, the United States was engaged in three wars in which air power played a major role as a means of conducting offensive warfare. This report summarizes the role of air power in the air wars against Germany, Japan, and North Korea. The analysis of the air wars against Germany and Japan treats in general terms the overall economic effects of the campaign, with somewhat more detailed treatment of the attacks on transporta- tion. The air war against Korea is most similar to the air war being conducted in North Vietnam. For this reason the Korean War is examined in greater detail to evaluate the attempts to interdict North Korea's transport system. Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 CONTENTS Page 1. The Air War Against Germany .... .. ... 1 A. The German Economy . ...... .......... 1 B. Overall Economic Effects of Bombing .. ... ... 2 C. Target Systems . ... .......................... 3 1. Civilian Morale . ............... ......... ..... 4 2. The Attack on the Ball-Bearing Industry .... .. .... 5 3. The Aircraft Plants as a Target System . ... ... ... 5 4. The Attack on the Petroleum Industry ..... ....... 6 D. The Attack on Transportation .......... .. .. ... 7 1. Inland Waterways 8 2. Railroads 8 II. The Air War Against Japan 11 A. The Air Attacks Against Japan Proper 11 B. Effects of the Attacks .. .... .. ...... ... ... .. . 12 C. Civilian Morale .............. ........... .. . 12 D. Destruction of Japanese Merchant Shipping .... . .. . 13 E. Actions of the Elite to End the War .............. ... 15 III. The Air War Against North Korea . .. ... ..... ....... 17 A. Introduction ....................... ........... . 17 B. Similarities and Differences of Environment 17 C. Interdiction in North Korea 17 1. Introduction ................................... 17 2. Railroad Interdiction-Operation Strangle ..... .. 21 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Page I. :valuation oI Operation S:_rangle 23 aa. Introduction 23 h. Railroad Interdiction 24 C. Highway interdiction 24 d. Night Operations 25 The 'A,'a-dorag Chokepo]nt 26 D. Strategic Bombing 27 Early Bombing 27 2. 1,ater Strategic bombing Efforts 29 a. hydroelectric Power 29 la. I rr: gation. Dam:; 29 F- i xessons from the Korean War 3t) Introduction 30 Failure oil the fn:erdiction Campaign 30 3 . Air Pressure l ac:ics and Psychological V6'-Mare 32 =-9:. Lessons for Vietnam 33 1. Distribution of Bomb [onager n the Europe !n. Theater Du firing World War tI 3 2. Comoari.son of Air Oner;.tions in Korea ar d Nortl % ietnani 19 3. Strategic Targets Attacked in North Korea, 1950 28 C HARS ?: ollows Fage Figure I. Effect of Allied Bombing cm German Mui.itions Pro- duction 33 Figure 2. Effect of Allied Bombing oa japarese Muuit.ens Pro- duction anca Maritime Saipnink; 33 f{'figure 3. Indexes of Berrrl;s Expended and Value f i estruc- tion in the Korean War During Opeerati ~ yr, Strangle 33 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 HISTORICAL NOTES ON THE USE OF AIR POWER AS A WEAPON OF INTERDICTION* 1. The Air War Against Germany A. THE GERMAN ECONOMY The German war economy benefited greatly from the German buildup in industrial activity which took place between 1933 and 1939. While both England and the United States entered World War II with substantial unemployment, the German labor force was fully employed by 1939. Six years of rising output (1934-39) meant that substantial investments were made in expanding plant facilities, both for heavy industry and for armament production. One result was that the German armament industry, with few exceptions, worked only single shifts throughout the war and the great reserve capacity available from double or triple shift operations not only gave con- siderable flexibility but also cushioned the effects of Allied air attacks. In 1.938, approximately 30 percent of the national product was already devoted to war expenditures, and this level rose very slowly until, by the end of 1944, approximately 50 percent of the national product was channeled into war purposes. The output of civilian consumption goods, after the restrictions in the initial war years, was reasonably well maintained so that civilian standards of living continued to be, comfortably above the levels of the depression years of the early 1930's. Germany's dependence on imported raw materials was always looked upon as a classical weakness in wartime. The four-year plan of 1936 was aimed in part at overcoming the most serious of these weak- nesses, chiefly through expanded production of synthetic oil, textiles, and rubber. However, Germany imported very substantial percent- ages of iron ore, copper, manganese, and other metals. Partly as a result of overrunning other Western European sources of supply and * This report was prepared by the Office of Research and Reports; the estimates and conclusions represent the best judgment of the Directorate of Intelligence as of 15 April 1966. SECRET 1 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 partly as a result of substitution, Germany managed until well into 1.944 to avoid se:' ious embarrassment from s nortage,l o' imported war Material. The Germans found that consumption o'? r mny materials, such as copper, traditionally believed to be essential to armaments production, could be drastically cut without materially affecting the iuality or the usefulness of the end product. While electric power supplies became tight eariv n the war, ra- tioning and curtailment of nonessential use! permitt:ec. priority needs to be met until 1944. During that year, certain r major industrial consumers., such as aluminum producers, were depri red of supplies from time to time on a. temporary basis. In summary, the German economy proved sum p1isiingly able to withstand substantial attac.Ks and still increase mun lions output until the weight of Allied bombardment increases. to apps ox imately 300,000 tons a quarter, which did not take place until fate in 1944 (see Figure 1). 8, OVERALL ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF BOMEING During 1942 ,and 1943 the overall effects of air ra.=d! on the German economy were small. The LUS Strategic 1,ombing S zrvey estimated that the total loss of German armament oroduct:o;on resulting From air attacks carried out in 1943 was not more than 3 to 5 percent, even though the attacks requirec the Germans -:o call upc n. some of their reserves. In the first four months of 1944 the US air forces ccn.centrated their effort on aircraft plants and on antifriction lreari,ug factories. The vulnerability of these targets provec: smaller than has. been expected. In May and June of 1944 the weight of attacks oi Germany was reduced because of the diversion of a high props rti on of the Allied air forces to preparation for the invasion that was lauwrched on 6 June. The air offensive that started later, beginning vwit]i attacks on oil and nitrogen facilities a.nc. continuing against German transportation, achieved more noticeable results. . Before the end of 1944 the output of aviation gasoline and nitrogen had fallen by 9) percent. The attack on transportation was a major factor in reducing the volume Of car loadings by `75 percent within five months. i1c wever, the index of armament production stayed high. It reached a 3eak in the third quarter of 1944; the decline in the fourth quarter (t -o:m causes other than those attributable to territorial losses was oily about 5 percent. 2 SECRET Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 The Allied bombing program did succeed in tieing up a significant portion of the labor force by the third quarter of 1944. An estimated 41/2million workers, or nearly 20 percent of the nonagricultural labor force, were engaged in debris clearance, reconstruction and dispersal projects, the replacement of goods lost through air raids, and in the manning and production of antiaircraft munitions. Air raid casualties reduced the labor force by no more than 500,000 to 700,000, or about 2 percent. From December 1944 onward, all sections of the German economy were in a rapid decline. This was due to the results of bombing in combination with other causes, particularly the military reverses which had led to the invasion of Germany itself. In February 1945, Silesia and the Saar had been lost, and car loadings were only 11 per- cent of normal and still falling. The final land actions carrying the Allied armies across the Rhine and Oder Rivers were under way by the time the economy of Germany had ceased to be able to support significant military operations. C. TARGET SYSTEMS The greatest weight of Allied air attack, approximately 56 percent, was delivered against two target systems-land transportation and in- dustrial areas (see Table 1). Transportation targets are discussed in D, below. The attacks against industrial areas, generally identified as city area raids, were primarily the work of the Royal Air Force. It began its famous raids on German urban areas in 1942, with the first thousand- plane raid against Cologne. This was followed by heavy attacks on other industrial cities, the most noteworthy of which were the July Distribution of Bomb Tonnages in the European Theater During World War II PERCENT Land transportation targets ....... ............................. ..... 32.1 Industrial areas ..................................................... 23.7 Military targets ................................................... 11.1 Oil, chemical, and rubber targets ...................................... 9.3 Airfields and airdromes ............................... ............ 6.9 Naval and water transportation targets ................................. 4.2 V-weapon launching sites ............................................. 2.0 Aircraft factories ........................................ .......... 1.8 Miscellaneous manufacturing targets ................................. 2.6 All other targets .................................................... 6.3 Total ....................................................... 100.0 SECRET 3 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 and August strikes against Hamburg. Th,,, Hamb.ir,- raid destroyed about one-third. of the residential housing and kills=d between 60,000 and 100,000 people. While this raid had in immt-diite shock effect, the city attacks prior to the autumn of 1944 did not ;u )stantially effect German war production. Recovery was E ssentialiv achieved within a relatively few weeks, and because industrial plants were generally located around the perimeter of German cit:les, ht v were chr.rac- teristically undamaged. The heavy tonnages of bombs dr-)pped on -.rrban . trews as a result of attacks on transportation and targets beginning in September 1944 ,produced more significant effects. However, since there were so roany forces contributing to the collapse of produc ric n in the last six months of the war, it has not been possible to as-esi separately the effect of these later area raids on war pr eduction.. 1. Civilian Morale The conclusions of the US Strategic Boribing Si.r,,ev with respect i:o the effect of Allied air attacks on Germar morale are as follows: 'ftc Survey has made extensive studies of the rea ti( n of German people to the air attack and especially to city -aide. Ti-,es studies were carefully designed to cov_-r a complete cross section o' the German people in western and southern Germany and to reflect wi It a minimum of bias their attitude and behavior during he raids These studies show that the morale of the German people deteriorn'ec under aerial attack. The night raids were feared far more than dau:ig It: raids. The people 'lost faith in the prospect of v ctory, in their le ,dt ra and in the promises and propaganda to which trey wer,. subject, d. Most of all, they wanted the war to ens. They resorted inccreasingh, tc "black radio" listening, to circulation of rumor and fact in oppositior t' the Regime. and there was some increase in active political dissider e---in 1944 one German in every thousand was arrested for a political otF Anse. If they had been at liberty to vote themselves out of -he war. lie / wouH have ]on.: so we'll before the finoil surrender. In ~ determ:,~ei police state. however, there is a wide difference between dissatisfacti, ~n tnd expressed opposition. Although examination of official records n( those of in- dividual plants shows that absenteeism increased and or rductivity di- minished somewhat in the late stages of the war, by a:.d arge workers continued to work. However dissatisfied the- were w -th the war, the German people lacked either the will or the means to mike their dis- satisfaction evident. The city area raids have left their mark on tl-e ( n an pecple as well as on their cities. Far more than any other milrar v action that preceded the actual occupction of Germany it;elf, these a tacks left the German people with a solid lesson in tae disadvantages ~t Nar. It was _; terrible lesson. Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 SECRET 2. The Attack on the Ball-Bearing Industry The classic example of an attack on a so-called bottleneck industry was that of the German hall-bearing industry. Not only was ball- bearing production concentrated, with approximately one-half of the output coming from plants in the Schweinfurt area, but also Germany was assumed to need a continuing full supply of ball bearings to continue war production. Air attacks on Schweinfurt took place on 17 August and 14 October 1943. Losses to attacking German fighters (the plants were outside of escort range) were such that the attacks could not be maintained. During the next four months, when there was a bombing lull, the Germans took energetic steps to disperse the industry. This dispersal was aided by the fact that machine tools were relatively undamaged. Furthermore, it proved possible to eliminate very high percentages of the total number of ball bearings used in some equipment without materially impairing its operation for either civilian or military pur- poses. The Germans had also exercised the precaution of accumu- lating substantial stocks. From examination of the records in the ball-bearing industry, and from the testimony of war production officials, there is no evidence that the attacks on the ball-bearing industry had any measurable effect on essential war production. 3. The Aircraft Plants as a Target System The abortive experience with the ball-bearing industry was followed by renewed attacks on the German aircraft industry. Earlier attacks had the effect of reducing the vulnerability of aircraft assembly plants because the Germans pursued a policy of subdividing and dispersing aircraft production facilities. The new attacks began in February 1944, with the protection of long-range fighter escorts, and were again aimed at aircraft assembly plants as opposed to aircraft engine plants. These attacks did not succeed in reducing the production of aircraft, probably because there was considerable excess capacity in the assembly phase of the aircraft industry and because, once again, relatively simple protective measures prevented serious loss of machine tools. Hence the attack on the ball-bearing industry and the attack on aircraft assembly facilities were proved to be errors in target se- lection. The German Air Force was defeated, but its defeat came largely as a result of combat operations by the Allied forces. Later in the war the Ruhr steel industry was singled out as a target system, SECRET 5 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095ROO0800070002-2 but because steel lies so deep in th,,~ indu!trial prc-~ss there is no evidence that these attacks affected munitic ns 'rod rc :ion before the end of the war. 4. The Attack on the Petroleum Industry The attack on the German petroleum i:iclustry b gan in a pre- liminarY 'way with two st_ikes in May 1144. I'll :--s ~ attacks were not followed up, because of the almost complete c iversion Of air power to attacking tactical targets in preparation ii and in supi?ort 01- the D-1)ay invasion. The German oil position was tight througho,t the war,, and production was largely concentrated in f3 synt;re ic' fuel plants. although there were early attacks :)n the Human at petroleum in- dustry, by August 1994 tli s source of su)ply overrun by the T SSH_ and German dependence on the synthetic pia rte became almost complete. By July 1944, every major plant had been hit. After the attacks began in May, production. which had averaged ;a .6,000 tons per Month, fell to 17,000 tons a month in Se )tember Although there was a modest recovery in November and )ecemh r. the post-attack output was only a fracuoru of the pre-attack level. _nlike the ball- bearing plants, the synth.eiic oil plants were att. cr ed again when they were brought back into operation. For ex_a rr.ppe, the largest plant, Leuna, was attacked 22 times by early Nr5 and its output from the day of the first attack ave?aged only 9 p,~nent of capacity. The effects of depriving German, of its major r ie resources were almost immediate in tenris of military opt rations. t or lack of fuel, pilot training was drastically curtailed, making ( ernan aircraft in.- creasingly vulnerable c': experienced Allied fighter As the summer cif 1944 wore on, the German panzer divisions wrre more and more seriously hampered by decreased tuel production. Jerman military stocks of petroleum were so low that when the t wious Ardennes offensive (the so-called Battle of tie Bulge) was is inched, German reserves of fuel were insufficient to suppo:-t tree operation. The German high command counted ur capturing Al Lei stocks to keep the operation rolling. i':rally, in Fel)ruarv ;and vi urch of 1945 the Germans massed 1,200 tanks on the Vistiula to Jeck the Russian advance. In eery short order, the tanks were oti r! tuna because they had insufficient fuel for maneuver. Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095ROO0800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 There were other dividends from the attack on the petroleum in- dustry because 60 percent of the nitrogen and 40 percent of the methanol output came from the synthetic oil plants. Shortages of these essential chemicals for munitions were reflected in shortages of ammunition within a few months. D. THE ATTACK ON TRANSPORTATION The German transportation system was dominated by the rail- roads. In combination, the state-owned and privately owned rail- roads handled three-quarters of all freight traffic and about 70 percent of passenger traffic. Most of the remainder of the freight traffic was accounted for by waterway (largely inland) carriers and less than 3 percent by highway vehicles. The rigid government regulation of trucks was designed to prevent the development of a highway truck system which would compete with the state-owned railways for long- haul business. Therefore, motor transportation was almost entirely limited to local and suburban service. The rail system was well maintained and had general overcapacity on permanent way, with respect to both lines and classification yards. The inland waterways system connected the important rivers of North Germany, crisscrossed the Ruhr coal area, and provided through water transportation from the Ruhr into the Berlin area. The moderate expansion of the rail system during the war was concentrated in those few places where it was necessary to construct new yards in critical points such as Munich or to parallel vulnerable viaducts with by- pass lines. During most of the air war against Germany the bombing of rail transportation was not given a high priority. Although heavy major ground operations were preceded or accompanied by concentrated attacks on local rail facilities in or near the battle area, transportation was not then selected as a priority target system, because of its size and complexity. As a consequence, the railroads in Germany and the ports of the inland waterways system were subject to only sporadic attacks until the middle of 1944. Heavy attacks on transportation within Germany proper did not begin until September 1944. The recuperative powers of the system were such that until bomb tonnages exceeded 12,000 tons per month the repair system was able to cope with the damage. At the same time that the heavy attacks were beginning on the railroads, successful attacks on four waterway targets substantially eliminated through traffic on the Rhine and North German canals. SECRET 7 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 By 1.4 October the Rhine River was imilariv ir,terc :ctEd at Cologne, and as a consequence the economic cratnc of the Lnportant Ruhr district fell to about 12 percent of the leve of Oci ,h r 1943-March 19144. By he end of December., car loadings had I .-e i decreased by about 40 percent and by 611_c first week of ,lar,rh 1 4-) by almost 80 o~ercent. The index of inhir.titiuns production heir cp substantially aaetter than these figures would indicate, largely i et a use of stocks Of components and suba.ssernblies. 1, inland Waterways The general experience with the attack on wa= ei ways was that these were relative.:ly succeessfui in smiting traffic-- o ten for a con- siderable period of time. :,'urthermore, there were tr !(luent additive side effects such as that resulting from the mining of -sit Danube River. The period of intensified mine laying in Lite Danu )e was from April to December 1944. The mines salad other aeria; a:tacks; resulted in the sinning of over 41) percent of tale Danube can,..() sleet. Further- in ore, t'nere was a precipitous drop in hnorale becau -e nine explosions often resulted in the loss of the crew. Cuhisequen jv desertions and delays because of manp(,wei shortages were thumera to. The tonnage 'handled on the river dropped about (0 percent with ii :wo months and continued to fall throughout the sununer Conic ie :e statistics are of available, but the 1).anube cperaticn was ciea.rly a highly ;successful one. 2. Railroads The bomb tonnages dropped on land transpf rt.ttaon targets in :;ermany were as follows by quarter: 1944 january-March .. April-June ... .. .. July-September .... 50 .,?j i0 1; `?00 October-December '7],000 1945 January-March Of which 13,000 tons were drooped n September. It can be seen from the above figures that un?:i September 1944 the tonnages dropped were not sufifciew: to oy,( rwhelm the capa- bilities of the repair system. Following t. tat date t] re weight of the attack increased sharply and in the first quarter of 11146 was 64 times that of the first: quarter of 1944. The result was Progressive tieup of traffic. Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Although coal traffic (about 40 percent of all the traffic carried by the German railroads) held up better than miscellaneous commercial traffic, the decline was both more easily traceable and more dramatic. The September raids reduced coal-car placements in the Essen Divi- sion of the Reichsbahn (the originator of most of the coal traffic of the Ruhr) to an average of 12,000 cars daily, compared with 21,400 at the beginning of the year. Most of this was for consumption within the Ruhr. By January, placements in the Ruhr were down to 9,000 cars a day, and in February 1945 virtually complete interdiction of the Ruhr District was achieved. The German economy was powered by coal and, except in limited areas, the coal supply had been eliminated. Military (Wehrmacht) traffic had top priority over all other traffic. During the period of attack this traffic came to account for an ever- increasing proportion of the declining movement. Through 1944 the air attack did not prevent the army from originating such movements, although the time of arrival, or even the arrival, of units and equip- ment became increasingly uncertain. Couriers accompanied detach- ments and even shipments of tanks and other weapons; their task was to get off the train when it was delayed and report where it could be found. After the turn of the year, even military movements became increasingly difficult. The Ardennes counteroffensive, the troops and equipment for which were marshaled- over the railroads, was prob- ably the last such major effort the Reichsbahn would have been ca- pable of in the West. SECRET 9 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 II. The Air War Against Japan At the outset of World War II the Japanese economy was relatively small, approximately 10 percent the size of that of the United States. Despite great efforts to increase the availability of raw materials from domestic sources, Japan was highly dependent on imports to main- tain its industrial plant. The acquisition of Manchuria and parts of China helped materially in alleviating Japan's shortages of coking coal, iron ore, and foodstuffs, but negligible quantities of iron ore and bauxite were available within Japan's "inner zone." Plans to develop a synthetic oil industry failed to yield significant results, and Japan was almost wholly dependent on imports from the Dutch East Indies. The same overseas dependence existed for rubber, ferroalloys, and manganese as well as for a variety of other militarily important ferrous and nonferrous materials. Japan's strategy had been based on the accumulation of munitions, oil, aircraft, and ships which could be thrown into action against es- sentially nonmobilized enemies. The expectation was that the dev- astation of the initial blow would result in the enemy suing for peace. A. THE AIR ATTACKS AGAINST JAPAN PROPER Most of the tonnage of bombs dropped by Allied forces in the Pacific War fell outside the Japanese home islands. Only one-fourth, or 160,000 to 170,000 tons, was dropped on Japan proper, mostly by B-29's. In contrast, 1,360,000 tons were dropped within Germany's own borders. The air attack on Japan came very late in the war and was very highly concentrated. From June 1944 to January 1945, only 800 tons of bombs were dropped by China-based B-29's on the Japanese home islands. Following the seizure of the Mariannas in August 1944, a series of bases for long-range bombers were constructed, but the tonnage dropped by 9 March 1945 totaled only 7,180 tons. The basic revision in the method of B-29 attack came on 9 March 1945, when it was decided to bomb the four principal Japanese cities at night with incendiaries. The first attack burned out 15 square miles of Tokyo's most densely populated area. This enormously destructive attack was followed almost immediately by strikes on Nagoya, Osaka, and Kobe. In the aggregate 104,000 tons of bombs were directed at 66 Japanese urban areas, or about two-thirds of the total tonnage dropped on the home islands. Far smaller tonnages SECRET 11 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 were directed against selected indus~riai an.1 military targets, as fol- lows: 14,150 tons against aircraft factories, 10,600 tons at oil refineries, 4,708 tons against arsenals, 3,500 tom against miscel'ar.eous industrial targets, 8.150 tons at airtie._cs, and 12,054 mines u-2d in the attacks against shipping. B. EFFECTS OF THE ATTACKS The Anhysical destruction resulting from air attar i.s -in Japan was approximately the same as .hat suffered b'i Germ,-n, . The attacks were more concentrated in time, and the tz.iget ari-.as n Japan were smaller and more vulnerable. Japans defensive capabilities were .,iverwheimed as was its will and cat:acity for reconitiuction and dis- persal. Some 40 percent of the built-up area of the hf cities attacked was destroyed, and about .31) percent of the entire urban population lost their homes. Total civillian casualties a~ the res~ilt of nine months of air attack, including an estimated 200,00) frDm the atomiic bombs, were approximately 806,001). These casualties p: of 1ably exceeded those which Japan, suffered :in combat. The economic effects of the air a::tacks are :lifli+, il to specify be- cause the loss of merchant shippini, had essentiaaty isolated Japan from its sources of indusi:rial raw materials. Most r f +e- oil refineries were out of petroleum, the aluminum plants were t tit of bauxite, the steel mills were short of ore and coke, and the mur: iti ins plants were low on steel and :aluminum. Japans economy war- in Large measure being neutralized twice over, first 1),i cutting off ii ,p, )rts and second by air attack. The railroad system was riot surrject to substant :ti attack and was in reasonably good operating concition .t the t inc of surrender. Jpan's electric power system had not been selech as a target sys-- (erri, largely because it existed in numerous small pi (A uCtion facilities. Therefore, most of Japan's generating ant distrib rton capacity :re- ir_amec operable. An exception was in it.e urban areas which had been subject to heavy incee:udiary attack. C, CIVILIAN MORALE lime early Japanese military succ,csses, 1 articuia_ i% the capture of Singapore, were followed 1)'' a wave of optmism ai,ct high confidence no the part of the Japanese people. As the war )r agressec , subse.- =: cent defeats were studiously withheld frcm the I~ooopie or disguised as strategic withdrawals. The US Strategic bombi:4g Survey reported that as late as June 1944, in spite if an iimcreasin...; . h:ortage of food 12 SECkET Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 and exhausting work to support the war effort, only about 2 percent of the Japanese population believed that Japan faced the probability of defeat. The beginnings of attacks on the home islands coupled with military defeat in the Philippines and a continuing deterioration of food supplies began to be reflected in sharply lowered civilian morale. The survey reported that by June of 1945 nearly one-half of the Japanese people believed that victory could no longer be achieved. One striking effect of air attack on the cities was the mass evacuation which resulted. Roughly one-fourth of the urban popula- tion either fled or was evacuated. Progressive lowering of morale was characterized by loss of faith in military and civilian leaders, loss of confidence in Japan's military might, and increasing distrust of government news releases. The interrelationship of military, eco- nornic, and morale factors was a complex one, in which the urban at- tacks had played an important role. It should also be remembered that the effect of the atomic bomb was severe not only on the civilian population but also on the civilian and military leadership. D. DESTRUCTION OF JAPANESE MERCHANT SHIPPING Japan's merchant fleet was a key link in supplying home industry with raw materials as well as being vital to the support of armed forces in the field. Approximately 9 million tons out of a total avail- ability of 10 million tons of merchant shipping (including ships of 500 tons and over) was sunk or seriously damaged during the war. About 55 percent of this loss was from submarines and approximately 10 percent from mines, most of which were dropped by aircraft. Most of the remainder fell victim to direct air attack. Thus the role of airpower in the isolation of the Japanese home islands was a major one, even though it was secondary to that of the submarine (see Figure 2). As a maritime nation with large domestic and foreign trade, Japan had developed a modern merchant marine of first rank. Because shipping was highly developed and heavy industry was located to use fuel and raw materials received by water routes, the railroad mileage was small and the rail system of ? limited capacity. Only two main rail lines extended the length of Honshu Island. The fleet of large oceangoing ships was complemented by numerous smaller craft en- gaged in the coastal trade in and around the home islands. The conquest of Southeast Asia gave Japan control of most of the world's supply of rubber, tin, antimony, jute, and quinine as well as sources for more than enough of its own requirements of petroleum, SECRET 13 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 iron ore_ bauxite, sugar, c.ortl, and rice. .trurin~, the liar, japan drew heavily on this area for die bulk raw materials needs :i ov its industry. respite a vigorous hiuk Ting program, japan at, .i 1942 was not able to maintain the prewar level of total tonnage ! nerchant ships afloat. The December !'_9"_1 level x as 5.4 iniiiion I.I is of :merchant excluding tankers. .% year la el, fist,, total i :.u been seduced s , r liilion tons, ants by December 1.943 the cot rt ination of ub- rr1aruie and air attacks lead lowerec snip availabii , to 4.2 million -is. he submarine o tertsive had been Farticula rv stepped up in LAC. fail of 1943. Y 'w { car 19444 sa m the be inning )f the ttevastat ~ carrier attacks clrier raids on I-ant sh:ip;oing, 0rigii11aliy as a resudt or tit c I r,uic and Palau. A series a operati,)ns involving 1 invasion of tide rrianrias and the premva ion carrier raid, arout tlie Piiaaiippiiies t,we:_i in the summer and. the tall sorties agau, ;: merchant ship- : sst;, flown by Army, Na tiy. itLd i1-iarine !aria-baseti ,t ti carrier-based i.irc raft increased frorn l U ,(06) in 1114` to : ~`7, JOb 11 1944. in 1945 in con at;irled sorties neat tact. a nett rattily )eat: of ,, most 51,000 p il, During N44 the merchant tonnage ah:)at Ad been rec aced ,)vcrr 5C, percent in a 1-2--:nerttf:L perio,1 and was ona: i )out 1.5 mission ia_ o._ wheii lapai1 sl.rreiu!eied. )ther air operations mid ca. signthca.nt e test in rt n rF ttg the mobility era -_1. slunnkin.g merchant fleet der pate ) r.part s V J Agness to take :1 va re ,hipping losses i ec .use of its despe)ate rtes or strategic im- )ris. 1'he mare iayilrz; ca]npa get oonducied by tN b-29 s early in In f only reduced ti ;c (: ta.l tonnage of merchan s tipping but also katled certain i port, ,: ::: d great. V retie red tin erviceai)inity of nr)orts passed tine.-ir peak in August A ~i4L. ost it significant number of its rankers at t'ru.11 it :gs of tankers created cesperate sil(Irtage Of fuel fay ApA-ii 1945, tanker irliv)crts ceased completely. drawn down and were q~liciKly exiiausteo, the ri, industry 'Uegair i,: dry up, anti Lt coriSi( ships was Lid 111) i 1 lack of pet.ruie.ntn. 1.1 stockpiles of 1r dt strial ran inak r ass, eve horns r!.icitistries surfer-6 serious iu 5e5 114 output i terdiction of Inerchaii Secii.ned 76 percent in a xite imports. t Japanese Navy ,m d furtiier sink-- tae fall or 1.944. tucks had ieen 1 suppLLy for the r tlhie tr nilage of .1 site the accurnu- he direct muni- a restlt of the sltil)pin 1:f or example, a cu:nimttai output single -4enii' a6 a result t.:i.e stoppage of Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Finally, the nation became short of food. Local production had declined, partly as a result of cutting off imports of fertilizers. Fish- ing, a major industry prior to the war, was reduced by 50 percent for a variety of reasons, including requisitioning of ships by the Japanese Navy and the shortage of fuel. The situation became so acute by April 1945 that virtually all of the small remaining shipping capacity was diverted to the import of food and salt, sacrificing the trickle of industrial raw materials that had still been flowing in. By April 1945, Japan was essentially isolated. The raw materials base of its economy had been cut off, and the country could look forward only to gradual starvation and increasing military impotence. E. ACTIONS OF THE ELITE TO END THE WAR Although in theory the Japanese Emperor was the sole authority, in practice he usually approved the decisions of his advisers. During the early years of the war these advisers were dominated by fanatical army and navy officers. The first definite breach in the political coali- tion did not occur until Japan's defeat at Saipan. Ten days later, on 16 July 1944, the Cabinet headed by General Tojo fell. Tojo's government was succeeded by one headed by General Koiso. Despite the original instructions to the Cabinet to give "fundamental reconsiderations" to the problem of continuing the war, Koiso was unable to stand up to the more determined military officers. His major accomplishment was setting up a Supreme War Direction Coun- cil which was the inner cabinet group through which the problem of surrender was eventually resolved. The conviction and strength of the peace party was increased by continuing Japanese military defeats after Saipan and by Japan's inability to defend its airspace against attacks in late 1944 and early 1945. After the US landing on Okinawa in April 1945, General Koiso was replaced by Admiral Suzuki. In May 1945 the Supreme War Direction Council began active dis- cussions on ways and means to end the war. The Council initiated discussions with the Soviet Union seeking mediation. On 20 June 1945 the Emperor on his own initiative called the Supreme War Direc- tion Council together and ordered it to develop a plan to end the war. August brought the decisive steps, with the atom bomb falling on Hiroshima on the 6th and the USSR entering the war on the 9th. The Emperor quickly resolved the conflict in favor of unconditional sur- render. Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 In retrospect, it is clear treat, at the highest levels witi in the Japanese i;ahinet, the movement to [)r-:rig the war to ai end be;aa over a year I~aarlier than the date of the fi.:_ial surrender. Japan's sin ender cannDt be imputed solely to any One of the mnmerou;; revers,, is which jointly c)ntrihuted to the final decision. The military rever,,al; in the field: Ile destruction of the Japa_aese fleet and merchaiv riarine., which -,dated the home islands.: the surrender of Germany the destruction caused by incendiary ana .t,)mic weapons; and, fin a] y, the Soviet Decision to enter the war, all played a part. Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 III. The Air War Against North Korea A. INTRODUCTION The lessons learned in one war against an adversary using strategy and tactics appropriate to the time and place cannot often be applied with success to another war fought under different conditions. Im- proved weapons alone can negate the lessons of an earlier war. Fur- thermore, each war is unique in its total setting-the political and economic realities of a North Vietnam are not those of a North Korea any more than the tropical setting of the former is equal to the harsh climate of the latter. This section places particular emphasis on the attempts by US aviation forces to interdict the transportation system and to destroy the heavy industry of North Korea. In spite of the differences between North Korea and North Vietnam, these aspects of US operations in North Korea are relevant to current US air operations in North Vietnam. B. SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES OF ENVIRONMENT Numerous similarities exist between the present war in Vietnam and the Korean War. Each conflict involves a divided country. Com- munist China looms over the northern border of both North Korea and North Vietnam as a supplier of war materiel and as a participant or potential participant. Many contrasts exist also. The topographic and climatic settings of the military actions in South Vietnam are unlike those fought in Korea. Instead of the guerrilla and infiltration tactics characteristic of today's war in South Vietnam, the Korean War even- tually involved large-scale land armies. Other contrasts can help put the two conflicts in perspective. North Korea occupies an area of about 47,000 square miles and in 1953 had a population of 9 million; North Vietnam has an area of 61,000 square miles and a population of 18 million. C. INTERDICTION IN NORTH KOREA 1. Introduction In the summer of 1951 as talks about a truce began and the fighting lulled, the US Eighth Army calculated that enemy forces in Korea were stockpiling daily 800 tons of supplies behind their lines. It was SECRET 17 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 II ;aced that the enemy wr,i l(l reach a degree or .,r traredness pre- 1norrs1y rnnaralleled ire tin Korean War, ' To ,r Jere with this ~rlailclun, he Far East Air force (FEAF) nl:anned a na-ration Strangle. =t (?(impreh.ensive interclrei:uon camniign arra.inst N r'h Kor(a',; rail- r'()ads and highways. ( trer~rtion Strangle had ~.v(-1 prime pal oh ectives_ the knocking it of tbire North Korean r-a i! ;vstetn by ma.inl ain ng It tuner rail cuts n gettir,g a bridge bat in partial opera- lion so that some supplies could begin to flow agar although traffic 1Uight remain far below capacity levels. The North Koreans and Chinese stationed rai rim i. construction troops along all main supply routes which were ur ter attack. Units ,of 50 troops were located at all major rail station, nd crews of 10 ,nen were located every ~. miles along tit(! route. 1n addition, rail walkers spotted damage to the rail (Jr roac_bed. l'- e< rbv inhabitants were recruited for common. labor, and soraetimes as many as 1,000 ,Persons were used to repair a damaged sect. on. r"vi (I tr c, experienced railroad construction crews would move in and _nak- tiie actual repairs c the rail line. Furthermore in portage-l:ke operations, rail service was maintained on very short stretches of usable trr:ct.---as short as 11 tniles-and freight was unloaded, ca-ried mound ra.1 ,tits or damaged bridges, and then. reloac ect on another trai i. it, Highway Interdiction The road network ri, ~~nrth Kom ea, originally le velopeci by the Japanese. had always been of secondary iriportani e to the railroads. t'rucks had been used typically for short hauls and se ?ved as links be- e veen industrial and commercial centers and th ? major railroads. North Korea's principal Jhighways roughl,> fullov~~cti the major rail routes from Manchuria southward. Altogether ab,~ tit 10,000 miles of Highways existed, at best surfaced with gravel or c u: bed stone. ,,although the major interdiction effort of Open tun1 Strangle was against: the North Korean system, attacks agar, r ;rucks were also ruresse(t, especially night attacks led by B-26's i )ne occasion, an Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Air Force wing reportedly sighted 3,800 motor vehicles and attacked 2,600 vehicles in one day. The Air Force claimed that 6,400 trucks were destroyed in October 1951 alone. Highway bridges were also attacked but proved to be more difficult to interdict effectively than rail bridges. Bypasses were sometimes built at a considerable distance from the original bridge and were thus not easily sighted; fords were built and used during much of the year. Truck traffic was uncommon during the daylight hours and at night was hard to locate and to attack effectively. The results of night at- tacks against motor vehicles as well as rolling stock were especially difficult to assess. Trucks usually traveled in convoys of 15 to 20 vehicles, ordinarily under blackout conditions. The mileage norm for trucks per night was about 60 miles. For example, a round trip from the Manchurian border to the battle zone required about 10 nights' travel. d. Night Operations Even before Operation Strangle began, the North Koreans had started to move virtually all rail and road traffic at night. The B-26 bomber was used extensively as a night intruder to harass trucks and trains along major enemy supply routes. During Operation Strangle, 1,500 to 2,000 sorties were flown monthly by B-26 bombers, about 90 percent of them at night. The heavier B-29 bombers were used to attack targets at night. In the absence of bright moonlight, B-26 attacks achieved only limited success, and numerous experiments were conducted with flares to light the targets. Infrared detection systems were used on a limited scale to locate targets such as locomotives, tanks, vehicles, and indus- trial locations. The results of these innovations were limited, however. In 1952, as Operation Strangle disrupted railroad lines, the North Koreans and Chinese made more intensive use of trucks to transport supplies to the front. In the fall and winter months, sightings of vehicles declined, and the B-26 night attacks were shifted to rail cut- ting and to harassing North Korean night repair activities. The major lessons from US night-intruder operations during the Korean War were the following: (1) aircraft, especially the B-26 that had been designed for day operations, had only limited success at night in detecting, identifying, and attacking moving targets; (2) air crews required careful selection and special training for night operations; and (3) a strong need existed for a family of "denial" weapons that Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 w could successfully interdict rail lines and hig:wa? s for periods that Would eliminate the need for essen:ially inefficient r i!2.ht operations. Night operations were hampered throughout by `he inadequacy of night photography to provide adequate assessment o1 bomb damage. e. The Wa.-dong Chokepoint The Korean War offers an exceller_t example of tie lifkiculty of sue- cessfully interdicting a transportation chokepoint b, I i:rge-scale aerial bombing. In the winter of 1.952, while Operation SitLrate was getting under way, target specialists located what appeared ? o _)e a vital choke- point near the village of Wa-dong in cen:ral Kona about 20 miles north of the 39th -parallel Here a major east-wi. t railroad passed over a highway from W i aisan on the east coast t( the capital at P`yongvang. About 100 v,rrds further to the west t e railroad entered a short tunnel. The railroad and highwa i did i t follow- identical alignments across North Iti_c:rea but came together t ly at Wa-dong. docent frills rising to about 300 feet above the :'a ley floor would have made Wa-dong stand cut as an ideal choke rc int to even the most unimaginative target analyst. The North Kore- ors had used both the lateral highway, and the railroad to shuttle sur_'plies between the cast and west coastal railroads. thus substantially a rc -easing the flex- ahility of the badly damaged, rail system. Jhe objeati-e of the attacks was to block all rail and vehicle rncvernen: in the ar ~a. Due to the area's rough terrain, b-ypassing the choke joint w u _d have proved very costty. '=:)r 44 (lays, from 26 lanuary to [1 March 1952 i 7 B-29 and 1.26 i3-26 sorties saturated the target of about 18 acre Ivi.th 3,928 500- i)ound general-purpose boraos, one Lomb n.r every 32 square yards of target. Bomb assessment reports ror 24 (lays of _h ! 44-cday attack period showed the :following results: l ailr )ad Serviceable .... .. io days ilriserviceable 8 dais Status unknown .. 6 c aps ,'otaf :%4 'iat. s liign!vay S-_viceable 15 days ila:nservieeable 4 days St tus unknown 5 (jays "r)tal i'4 tats l:iorn h assessment repor :s also revealed that th' ` :oLal effort had n?e:sulteel in only 18 actual rail cuts ~Lnd 15 higlawa cuts. The effort Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 at best resulted in the railroad being interdicted for 8 days and the highway for 4 days. Except for temporary disruptions the North Koreans had suffered very little damage. The bombs had done little more than churn up the countryside; landslides that had been hoped for did not occur. Evaluations made of the Wa-dong experience during the Korean War led to the conclusion that it is a fallacy to assume that there is an "area target" for traffic interdiction, and the Far East Air Forces recom- mended that airpower be concentrated on pinpoint bombing against definite targets in preference to area bombing in any future interdiction attacks. D. STRATEGIC BOMBING 1. Early Bombing North Korea's modern industry, which was developed by the Japanese, was considerably greater in total capacity and range of out- put in 1950 than North Vietnam's industry in 1965. During the initial months of the Korean War the B-29's available in the war theater were engaged in close tactical support of the hard-pressed US and South Korean forces. Attacks on industrial targets in North Korea were not feasible until mid-July 1950. In the next three months the FEAF Bomber Command dropped 10,400 tons of bombs, with ex- cellent results, on the major targets listed in Table 3. Of 20 strategic targets designated by the JCS, 18 had been destroyed or severely damaged by the late September. In September 1950, plans were under way to destroy the modern complex of hydroelectric generating plants that had been built by the Japanese. On 26 September, 17 B-29's attacked and inflicted minor damage on the Pujon Hydroelectric Plant, which had an installed capacity of 128,000 kilowatts. The same day, however, the JCS sus- pended attacks on strategic targets. By late September the Commander of FEAF was able to claim, "Practically all of the major military targets strategically important to the enemy forces and to their war potential have now been neu- tralized." In a few weeks, North Korea's modern industry had been destroyed. Although such destruction obviously inflicted "punish- ment" on North Korea's leadership, the military effect of the strategic bombing was of little consequence. Military equipment and ammuni- tion continued to flow into North Korea from China and the USSR. SECRET 27 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 ,-4t rategic its a tta(hE it 1u A of 191 2iorea 11 a,_'-t ~11.~' ( ni -fill, 211 1r1:5U1tr i' ii 113; 1~`: _ shops 11_]x! v ard, haiay shops an'i ards. card= 244 112 417 1127 o!)ti 563 ,n 4 11 1~_ct) o=l11'( utpan . 51)) ) MO 311 ,:ji ,, .y shot) arri cards . - 111 (1 l~ongjin... Halh-lr a ?,d suhil ar11c hast?. 249 j I32 I f.. ti r ark:~ 21;3 f 1)63 49 \t 1 l;a;,hil t -r: O 1S . Nigl 9 lll.d shops aria: ',arris 11 [1 . tit t. Ma -,at rig '(tl l - t i l t ) ti l a r l i e m s , cgt 24ti 284 r 1 ... C;;an~jtagalh I ! Pup-i; 11.~.lroelociw Plant No. lh)rnliun [tali, c :lop i a it < ~'as.117t .. ho- 11 'ittn.) - n _;x;)lorty~ s i v:up8r1)`. 3r) lit 368 Ili it':g earl . .,dp=:+, ?Il. i _1111 5. :ca, 110[)5 al !. Y--{rt !.,. +'ii)tlgJ ul_ _ _ . _ 81 9 vojr-s. tangdok.... luntn"ongiii luulgj11 h:irla.- '.11T1Ci1)rl_ e:rt, 'I',I]?gct l,la;.tt ' is tJil htora~e. - . .. - 2 ` i, 11it.=ay dhcpr au%~ cards. ~r i) ]) atrh a.tl..g taros . - .. . . .Ii) all i.tr . uc.a iudustrr and I :ursl ali?_l~. 1138 :31) Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 2. Later Strategic Bombing Efforts a. Hydroelectric Power It was not until June 1952 that the hydroelectric installations pre- viously regarded as "politically sensitive" targets were again considered as legitimate targets. Over a 3-day period in June 1952, 730 fighter- bomber sorties by the Fifth Air Force, supported by sorties from a Navy Task Force, were flown against the power complexes, including the Sui-ho Generating Plant on the Yalu River. Poststrike evaluation of the bombing attack indicated that 90 percent of North Korea's elec- tric power capacity had been knocked out. For more than two weeks there was almost a complete blackout in North Korea until small thermal plants and undamaged hydroelectric plants restored a small portion of North Korea's pre-attack capacity. Although the small, dispersed "war-industries" in North Korea obviously suffered from the loss of electric power, the extent of the damage to industry in Man- churia, which received much of its electric power from North Korea, was difficult to assess. Attacks against the hydroelectric installations came much too late in the Korean War to have much impact on the outcome or to do serious damage to North Korea's war effort. The attacks were designed primarily to exert continued air pressure on the North Koreans and Chinese to accept UN truce proposals. b. Irrigation Dams In the spring of 1953, only slow progress was being made at the Panmunjom truce talks. Air Force targets specialists seeking addi- tional means of increasing air pressure against the Communists recog- nized the importance of the irrigation dams to Korean rice production. There followed a large-scale and highly successful attack against a 2,300-foot earth and stone dam about 20 miles north of P'yongyang. Along with severe damage to a major rail line, the floodwaters also damaged 5 square miles of prime rice crops. Other Korean dams were attacked by US fighter-bombers and B-29's, ostensibly to interdict transportation lines. These later attacks were less successful because the North Koreans, as in other circumstances, improvised countermeasures. For example, by rapidly lowering the water level the North Koreans made it much more difficult to destroy or seriously damage the dams. SECRET 29 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 SECRET E. LESSONS FROM THE KOREAN WAR 1, Introduction The 27,900 strike sorties flown and the 34,300 tons of bombs, napalm, and rockets expended under the Rolling Thunder 3 arc gram from Feb- ruary through December 19665 are less than )ne-thir l t -te 81,600 sorties flown and the 1,04,000 tons of bombs dropped by th? v it Force during the interdiction and armed :reconnaissance ;orties i.1 tie 11 months of Operation Strangle, In addition, during tie Kore.tn War Navy and Marine aircraft operating from carriers prcbably aisc dropped about one-third as much tonnage its was dropped by the \ii Force on inter- diction targets. Even allowing for exaggerated damage c.aims, it is clear that there were far more lucrative targets in North Korea than a:?e being located and destroyed presently in North 'Vietnam. Destruc t:ion claimed in the 11 months of Operation Strangle in Korea compared with that claimed for Rolling Thun(---!er in Vietnam through December 1965 is shown in the following tabulation: OPEI ATIGN Sr LANG:,E ,m I,r:ac THUNDER locomotives 27 6 Freight cars ?,638 227 Vehicles 332,210 483 Bridges ... 22:3 161 3uilding3 .. ... 9,109 1,837 13arges and boats ... .... 225 461) The greater destruction achieved in Korea comaa1 ed with North Vietnam is not solely a function of the number of s4 rti es and the tan- nage of bombs dropped. The Rolling Thunder pr,g1 am has had to operate under policies which sharply limit both the ai eas in which it can operate and the targets it can attack. N:)rth Ko -ea's railroads and highways had to supply a.!most 1 million _roops, 300,000 of whom w sere at the front. North Korea had almos: 2,300 : ni es of rail lines and 10,000 miles of highways, compared with North Vi, 41-1am's meager 485 miles of rail lines and 5,800 miles of hig sways. N )rth Korea had a much larger park of both rolling stock and trucks n addition, al- though the population of North Vietnam su )stantia''.ly exceeds North Korea's, there was more modern and seminlodern i idustry in North Korea than is found in North Vietnam, 2. Failure of the Interdiction Campaign At the time Operation Strangle was under way., Rt was estimated that each Chinese division required 50 tons of supplies pE:r day.* With About 48 percent food; 22 norcen- clothing, weapons, and equir ago; 10 percent POL; aad 20 percent ammunition. 30 SECRET Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 60 divisions at the front, approximately 3,000 tons of supplies had to be moved from Manchuria to the battlefront each day. Peacetime capacity of the double-tracked line in western Korea from Sinuiju to P'yongyang was estimated to have a capacity of from 6,000 to 9,000 tons per day. After maximum interdiction efforts, it was conservatively estimated that only 500 to 1,500 tons per day were getting through to the battle zone. The capacity of the east coast rail line, 5,000 tons per day in peacetime, was reduced to less than 500 tons per day. Thus railroads were still able to transport about one-half of the daily requirements. In addition, the North Koreans and Chinese also relied heavily on trucks and on peasants carrying supplies strapped to A-frames and even bicycles for.moving supplies to the front. A staff study completed in April 1952 by two Air Force officers concluded that after seven months of maximum US effort the Communists still were more than meeting minimum supply requirements. The study concluded that the accepted figure for the enemy's minimum supply requirements was 2,700 tons per day under existing conditions but that more than this amount was being received. The staff study also stated that over and above daily requirements the enemy had been able to stockpile approximately 100,000 tons, or a 37-day supply, dur- ing the seven months of the rail interdiction program. This capability was, however, not sufficient to permit the North Koreans and Chinese to mount sustained offensive operations. Another logistics study from the Korean War illustrates how difficult it is to prevent what was called "seeping resupply." During three months in the winter of 1951-52 the Chinese and North Koreans were firing 15,000 mortar shells per month, or 500 shells a day. Each shell weighed 10 pounds; thus it was possible for a peasant to carry five of them on an A-frame. One hundred peasants arriving at the front from supply depots in the rear could supply all the enemy's daily needs for mortar ammunition. One truck a -day could replenish the supply depots. Operation Strangle clearly did great damage to the transport system of North Korea and conceivably prevented Communist China from mounting additional large-scale offensives in Korea. At the same time, it is also clear that the Chinese and North Korean troops received suf- ficient logistic support to contain the offensive pressures exerted by the Eighth Army. In short, the defensive capabilities of the Chinese and North Koreans showed no sign of collapsing as a result of the inter- diction campaign, and indeed the enemy was able to mount sharp battalion-size attacks on occasion. SECRET 31 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 'l'hc air interdiction cara.)aign failed to ,_lenv Cl, :-,)nunist forces the supplies they neected to contain the ITS A ?rny hec "n .e the North Ko- reans and Chinese were ahle to take effective crnr krn,)easures. One r-,ra;or lesson that emerged from the Kr rrear War iv ,s chat US planners rsnderesti natec. the effectiveness of the enemy cor, te rmeasures. The North Koreans and Chinese showwerl incre, sing rah idity in rebuilding damaged rail and road bridges and other key in -a'lati.ons. Choke- Courts, often given. exaggerated importance. were I er rtenth bypassed Without rrndu.e enemy effort. I)arkrtess shioiided i r,, t of the enemy's clovenlents from effective attack, r?e rnaioi lesson the Korean War was the clearly dernonstratecl need for the (level( )nient of a f ,tnily of weapons that could s;nct.essfully interdict night --a Iroad and high- vrav traffic. 3. Air Pressure Tactics 0111 Psychoiogical Warfare ti: is cii ticult to jiicke the (ver,111 effect of IT rterdiction and strategic bombing en the will of the politic- ,a leaders iii and the morale of the civilian pop'Ilatirrrr of North Korea. Ther,r- are nnnlerous ex- arnples, however. of the Nr)rth Korei_ns and Chine. , 'esponding with 'iJ'ecti e c )i ntermeasuros Ic each new phase 0` air )reratlons against North Korea. 1 h-e North Koreans were all, to dci e effective mans #r:J)uirtel act the r)rogrrn- of: massive rail interdir tip rn, The North Korean response to the im-rnhin.r of irrigation dims Cho illustrates the tenacity and cleverness -vvitl which he Cornmiinist riet new phases GS air operations. [rrs ny so-sine historians that a r oneritions v Fri almost solely i?esponsibie for the North Kerreans and Chin ace initr 11 , coming to the r?trnference table and fin, ll ;i>rninv r truce ii reeror 1U cannot he srrh- tl-intiate',d.' The Chinese and North Korr=t c ream,- a,, the conference Iit! le mainly became their total l(Sse, a.cr ruing I 11 the w,var had f ecome greater than their ~eotal vaqp,, .ail military 4 r>l~Heal and ceo _omic factors considered, -i'1-ludic r oc;es Iron!: ai 't inks, I' air- a.+ower played an important --cote in (r)rviricint; the C, '-:r ),.nists to .Tonle i.e terms, but the ev rile ,,-'e sloes not srrpnort the , that airctrikes ),were the decisive factor, h,calise of a host of i actors, inch (hr t to, rmi,'r nature of _TN ,rlolice action" in Korea and tie liner-air) Tir)'ition of officials about ac advantages and disa~lvvantages o+~ nwch?logieIt! ;t r warfare_ the is Ac E'rrce historian for e,; rmr,te, in ,lis,-,rss n.u FF.AF c,po -, atio,, n k" area in mid-1352, the rlestrnctive fore, of Ft A lk' s ai"pnwf'r has broker the stal-;5 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 psychological warfare phase of US operations in North Korea was little understood and only intermittently applied. 4. Lessons for Vietnam The lessons from the Korean War indicate that it will prove difficult to cut off supplies flowing from North Vietnam to South Vietnam. The total daily tonnages needed by the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese regulars engaged in South Vietnam are far less per man than was the case in Korea, largely because most food and clothing supplies are obtained locally in the South. Relatively small numbers of trucks, carts, and human bearers can maintain more than the enemy's mini- mum requirements unless the Vietnamese war is sharply escalated. Furthermore, the experiences of the Korean War suggest that as long as they continue to receive extensive support from China and the USSR the North Vietnamese are likely to show an increasing capability to improvise countermeasures to circumvent a continuing US air inter- diction. The Korean War suggests also that diminishing returns can be expected from continuing air interdiction. At the same time, the increasing effectiveness of conventional antiaircraft weapons and air defense missiles could raise the cost of continuing the campaign. The rebuilding of bridges, the building of bypasses, and the other counter- measures in evidence in North Vietnam in no way suggest a less de- termined enemy than was encountered in Korea. The primitiveness of North Vietnam-the lack of potentially decisive military and indus-- trial targets-will make it difficult if not impossible for airpower alone to extract a prohibitive price for North Vietnamese intransigence. Only the application of large numbers of new interdiction weapons which are more effective than those that were available in the Korean War would be likely to tip the scales in favor of successful, long-term interdiction. SECRET 33 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78T02095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Munitions Production Bombs (Thousand tons per quarter) Effect of Allied Bombing on German Munitions Production Munitions Production (Average month 1941 =I 00) Bombs Dropped 1942 1943 1944 1945 E-1 Effect of Allied Bombing on German Munitions Production Munitions Production Effect of Allied Bombing on Japanese Munitions Production and Maritime Shipping Munitions Production (Average month 1941 = 100) Bombs Dropped aeaaorne ,ram, oy ..win Merchant Marine Bombs 5~>ouorne iratiic (Thousand tons ( thousand metric per quarter) tons per quarter 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 E-2 Effect of Allied Bombing on Japanese Munitions Production and Maritime Shipping SECRET Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Indexes of Bombs Expender and Value of Destruction n the Korean War During Operation Strongle August 1951-June 1952 "~?'r~ Index of Bombs Expended (Tons) Index of Damage per Ton of Bombs Index of Value of Destruction C? Aug. :Sept. Oct. Nov. 1951 Dec. I u Jan. Feb. Mr1r. Apr. May June 1952 11;-3 Indexes of Bombs Exnenced and Va_ue of E estr rtio: hit the Korean War burin , Operation Strangle Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2 SECRET SECRET Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP78TO2095R000800070002-2