WHY THE CIA UNDERSHOOTS SOVIET ARMS SPENDING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00135R000500900003-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 20, 2008
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: December 6, 1983
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Approved For Release 2008/02/20 :CIA-RDP91 B00135R000500900003-6 '
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' V~V'hy the GIA .Undershoots: Y ~ ,`~. ~ndin w'~~~+~Y~kl~r,~~~'~-. .. ?
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Ily Lev Nwr;nzov ?~ . ~ ~ .? ~ mllitary engineers Is on Ito overage twice self, whereby the rlg.ri goals and sepylCes a .pared with G6 mlhlpit~ ons produced In rho '~`
Every year the Central .inlelllgence,;,', as high as that of clvlllan'engincers. How reach the right customers`.~nt- lhe',rlgryt~~y;U,S. But }yhat.doe~ahe;regtme do.Wllh,ull
Agency makes puWlc Iwo estimates cru-;... can the Suvlet economy pay [ur such ratios Ume. Using the C1?A's methodology; If; ~atl Y~r',lhal steel,: consldering~how Ihtle' goes lnlq? :~;?:j
clal for Western policies: Soviet defense'"?': I[ Soviet de[ense spending as a share o[ be proved that even Soviet labor- amp'In; ~+ cars, housing and highways, and.consldep;"^,i
', spending" and Its rate of growth: The'. ?' CNP roughly matched Its American count- males consmne, In terms of dollars op: ru?'~'?? Ing how much trolled steel (>;5.3 bllllop a '
agency's latest numbers are being used to erpart according to the prc?197G CIA, and tiles, nut so much Tess than median-Income ;`j year) ?lhe.reglme Imports? The answer Is,
play down the need for a U,S. rearmament ? ~? Is only about twice as high according to the Americans. ,. iJ+.r~?~.} ? !pissing (n this year's ~1A report, Just as It,?, '
policy. Sonic b,rckground Is In order. ~ "post-1976 CIA? '. Having inflated the SoYict GNPimop 1 was nlissing. l0~years ago,,.?~ :? ~; .."~~
~~ Defore 1976, the CIA's estimate of So-. Titc ke to the CIA calculusls the So- ~ ~:,{;:
Y 'than Suvict propaganda dues, the CIA gels, ~ The ~ C[A.~ rcpo~t?: abounds 'In ~ slogans ~.
vier defense spending hovered around 6%~'.?~viet GNP,;YcI the CIA can't now calculate . I( only for that reason, "Soviet dg(ehsg;..~~lifled unlhtnkingly from the?Sovlet press,;
of the Soviet gross national product- .: ~ .the GNP for the U.S.S.R., I[ only because spending" ns on absurdly low percentage;;";.'' "P~oductlon'? o[ ,fruits and vegetables. ,;
~~ roughly mntching the American percent- most Soviet goods and services are priced of GNP. ~ ~ ~ `.~ + is reached reconl levels.. ; . " "Meat output. ?
age. The "Soviet defense burden," the CIA by flat; and few of lbem can be sampird There are other reasons. As Is,?clear : ~~; . ?? . reached a record level.... " "Ball- ? '
slated In 1973, is lru greater than Ihnt of ; , and evaluated, since they are folded on
the United States," and Ihe. "Sovlel share ?Suvlet consumers far from foreign eyes, m -n agents'al rlhcotup of tl cl Sovlep'ntra~ ?~''; markedly,tormance ~ has ` also ,improved
of gross .national product spent on defense.".. predictably the Soviet Central Statist- ~`~ Andropov s regime has; .
has been tailing,",Tots good news nurtured .'?'.~' teal Office Inllirtes the'valuc of the ovcrnll 'ate tl nr. w alpo sl t sled Cbu11 v or deployed ;~ Ia j~ concern foe la" `e'Sare~vtet cptei e, '
detente and sapped the stronger defense'.:: Suvlet output In order to make Its mllitary ^ :. TI R ,' ?._?? . 4 .
under .optically or electronically' 4bsertf~.~~ Ill use since"1918.;~1;;r,~~;. ? :..?
' Iwlicy. In IJ76, the C1A announced lhal'ev sector lank small. Thtrs, this o[flce clalnrs able coudltluns, but nut rho weapons devel? ;~; ~ ? In' 1977,'lhe CI~'ptade the groundless
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% error: Thal the Sovlel nallonal Income in dull:u?s : oiled, produced, stored or deployed on opt!-?~.~ and indeed 'preposterous prediction .that.
~ Sovlel defense spending had been closer to. was, as of 1976, 67?Jo o[ its American count- catty and electronically closed premises. Il !;j
lhe Sovlel economy (aced an oil crisis; this-'
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;. 12%, not 6%^, of CNP, and had been grow_ ?erpart. The CIA's latest Soviet?Arnerican .can't know to what extent each "civlllanr'.`4~. year, . the. CIA exalalns that the Soviet .. .
~ ~ .r mauwawu wu~na ua a IllllllillY W~C..1~7R11, ~~~Vnvnq ? n~ u~ua~~a arc?ry u~c uown-,
dUenlc to wane and for defense lo? wax. x..73.7%=snore favorable to the Sovlel econ' the greater Importanco paid nowaday$'lo ,'~;~turp In oil produclion~;!:.; by virtue of an'
1~ Accocdln6 to the CIA's testimony this ~.:omy than the. nallonal lucome ratio. Aclu? high-technology surveillance, 'as opposed )o;.;enormous bt?ule?forc~'; devt?lopmenl effort.
year .before Congress's Jolnl Econanic ` ~olly, the GNP ratio must be tar less favor- qre former belie[ in the necessity of agents'(!:'.:'.':."~as though there Is a Soviet nallonal
I Committee, released to the press last; , ;..able to the Snviel, econom?~ than the na" In place, the discrepvrcy between what ls'?~ development effort, .that ,can't be credited
month as a GG?page relwrl, Suvlet defense .~ ; llonai Incomq ratlo~ shace the latter disre' observed by the CIA and what actually oc- ~j to brute force.. ~ ~ ~ '" '
spending has teen growing not al q% to';..' Bards service; and plant depreclnUon, and 5.' " `'' i ''~'?~
curs Irns nrrly widened. Nor does llje ~ ' 'The CIA to a closed; noncompclltive bu-
5%, I,ul at "alwrrt 2% a ye;rr , . ,because It is precisely In llruse two areas drat lire agency allow for the (act that civlilaq pr9-~';" eaucracy lhat'Is, ractlcnll ono sed,?
procurement of mllitary' hardware-the-'; Suvlet economy lags further behind the ductton mahtly receives those humaq pod a` since most of the major news media agree
largest category of defense 'spending-was ?. U.S. ? than Il does In goods. other resources reJrcled by the mllitary; , ~; with its Inlelllgenee, All attempts to expose'
aimgst flat In 1976-81." And, according to . ; . The C(A -reports give no sources for Whsle the ClA's "Sovlel defense spend= li' Its scholastics have foiled. Thus, In 1978 I?
'preliminary estimates available fur ,' data, An American nnfamlllar with the So?
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Nuw Il Is lime for opponents of Mr, ilea- .' secret Inlelilgence sources. Actually, they. the CIA can reyhapn al will; the rate; of ~ Its reports and then distilled my paper Inlo?
Ban's defense pollcy?lo rejoice. ?' ?? '. are "open" Suvlet books and parnphicls- 'that spcndhrg's growth Is an hnaglnaryj~~ an article [or Commentary that Ronald
Thal the CIA's esllmales of the Soviet t ?Le. Suvlet propaganda-since the CIA has flea ou that Imaginary dog: It the CIA'an- ~, ; lrteagan and his assoclntes hailed enthusi-
GNP share spent on defense are absurd Is 1i never been able to obtain "closed" Soviet 1101rrrced in 1976 that Its "Sovlel defense `~ aslically.?Ilut that applied to Jimmy Gu-
' ul,vluus al n glance. Atwul 300,000 engl? statistics. ,spending" tact been wrong by 100?!0, how;; tar's C1A. When the CIA became Mr. Rea?'
nears and 'IU0,000 "Junior engineers" ore In Its Amerlcan?Sovlnt GNi' contparl? tan tlre~ClA presume t?ltut It Irtcrenses at : , gnn s, the enllruslasm evaporated.
graduated in the U.S.S.R. annually, and . sons, the ClA uses a mclhalulogy appro? about 1% and not 4/o to 5%? .~ ..,.., . Recently, former Sovlel economist lgor?
half of these 700,000 gu Into the mllitary ~': prlalc for comparing the GNPs of the U.S. "The , slowdown In Sovlel mhltary l~:'. Dirman made a painstaking study showing
sector; In the U.S., 60,000 ~ engineers arc and, say, Western Europe. Thus the CIA .growth" Is the only new tact In the CIA's:''; That the CIA doesn'6 know the Suvlet econ-
' gfaduated, and only one?flfth of them go , ignores, In terms of both cost and value, testimony this year. Just like Its predece$~;,4 omy as Il exists, but 8S It seems on the
Urtu 111c dcfcusc Industry. The expendlUrre the Soylet?Inck of 1Vestcrn diversification, surs,ll is a digest of the Soviet press. Thgsa`. basis of purely American experience and '
~. ratio In this area Is lbws almost 60 to 1, .?, Innoyallon and sophlsllcatlon of consunrcr we Ieurn that ?In 1982 tl-c Sovlct eCOgomy ~ ,; I'open" : Suvlet' statistics:'. The CIA has'
' considering fire fact that ll-e pay of Suvlet ~!, Bootle and services: as well as of Irs,de it? . produced 1.17 mllliurt tons of steel,l~om? I, ;;never budged, and sslbly, never will.
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Approved For Release 2008/02/20 :CIA-RDP91 B00135R000500900003-6 ??~- ~ ' ~ ?