THE ILLICIT NARCOTICS THREAT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00885R000100080020-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2007
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: May 31, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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CENTRAL INTELLICE - AGENCY
OFFICE OF THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR
31 May 1984
The Honorable Robert C. McFarlane
Assistant to the President
for National Security Affairs
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500
The DDCI wanted you to be aware that
we have sent the attached unclassified
extracts from his recent testimony before
the SSCI to the Committee at its request.
John wanted you to be aware of this in
case the Senate goes public with it.
Sincerely,
0
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MEMORAM UM FOR: NIO for NarcotS .
FROM: EA/DDCI
Dave,
The attached are fine with John. FYI, we are
sending a copy of the unclassified version of the
threat to the NSC so they will not be blind-sided
if Congress goes public with it.
Date 31 May 1984
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The Illicit Narcotics Threat
The scope of the narcotics problem we face is enormous. According to DEA
and the National Institute on Drug Abuse, more than 40 million people in the
United States are expected to spend up to $80 billion this year to consume
some 4 tons of heroin, as much as 61 tons of cocaine, and about 14,000 tons of
marijuana. Nearly all of these drugs come from crops grown in foreign
countries.
Latin America continues to produce most of the marijuana, all of the
cocaine, and about a third of the heroin imported into the United States. In
spite of heightened US interdiction activity, key segments of?the drug
industry have found alternate routes around these increased control efforts.
Colombia's cocaine and marijuana traffickers dominate the US market.
Last year Colombia produced between 13,000 and 16,000 tons of marijuana and
increased domestic coca cultivation to supply the equival-ent of 20 percent of
the cocaine consumed annually in the United States.
The results of two recent Colombian National Police operations against
cocaine processing complexes in Southeast Colombia are unprecedented. The
operation conducted 10-12 March in Caqueta Department resulted in the largest
cocaine seizure ever, about 10,000 kilograms (with a retail value of more than
$1 billion in the United States), and the destruction of 10 laboratories. On
6 May, the National Police raided a cocaine processing complex in Vaupes
Department and seized three kilograms of coca paste and a large quantity of
precursor chemicals, including 94 containers of hydrochloric acid and 105
drums of ether.
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Other antinarcotics initiatives by the Colombian Government are also
encouraging. As you know, the assassination earlier this month of Justice
Minister Rodrigo Lara Bonilla has prompted an unprecedented crackdown on
traffickers, but it remains to be seen if the crackdown will last only a few
months or continue as a serious effort.
Opium output in Mexico was about 17 tons in 1983, and total 1984 opium
production could be substantially more. Mexico's ability to keep up with
increasing poppy cultivation has been limited by problems in the eradication
program, particularly in the deployment of spray helicopters.
The Jamaican Government's recent crackdown on marijuana smuggling has
stalled, in part because the constabulary lacks the manpower and resources to
conduct sustained large-scale interdiction operations. Without an effective
narcotics control program, marijuana shipments from Jamaica in 1984 could be
substantially higher than the 1,750 tons shipped in 1983.
Bolivia and Peru continue to be the primary source countries for coca.
The National Narcotics Intelligence Consumers Committee estimates that 70 to
80 tons of cocaine are produced each year from coca grown in Peru and
Bolivia. Although Peru is still a minor exporter of cocaine compared to
Colombia and Bolivia, cocaine is now being refined in Peru and smuggled via
ship and aircraft to the United States, western Europe, and perhaps Asia and
Australia.
In Belize, Prime Minister Price recently suspended a spray eradication
program that destroyed 95 percent of last fall's marijuana crop. According to
DEA, some 600 hectares of marijuana are currently under cultivation. If spray
eradication is not resumed, Belize could overtake Jamaica--which DEA estimates
produced about 1,750 tons in 1983--as the second largest supplier to the
United States.
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Southwest Asia's Golden Crescent, which includes Pakistan, Afghanistan,
and Iran, currently accounts for about half the heroin reaching the United
States (Southeast Asia supplies about 20 percent and Mexico about 30
percent). Steady reductions in opium production in the Golden Crescent until
this year were'largely the result of an estimated drop in Pakistan from 530 to
800 tons in 1979 to 45 to 60 tons in 1983. President Zia's ban on opium
production in 1979, adverse weather in 1980 and 1981, and a price drop largely
due to oversupply contributed to the decline. Iran remains a net importer of
opium for local consumption, but increased opium output during the past two
years in Afghanistan has enabled traffickers to offset Pakistan's reduction.
This will probably result in a net increase this year in regional production.
This year's opium harvest from Southeast Asia's Golden Triangle, where
Thailand, Burma, and Laos meet, is expected to be larger than the 600 tons
produced in the region last year, perhaps as much as 700 tons. Refineries
that convert this opium to heroin are concentrated along the Thai-Burmese
border.
Thailand has increased its use of military force during the past two and
one-half years against the groups that refine nearly all of the heroin
produced in the Golden Triangle. These Thai military initiatives have had an
impact on narcotics trafficking in the region: new trafficking routes through
India and Burma have been reported, and trafficking groups have begun to
relocate refineries deeper inside Burma. Thai actions in the region have had
a limited effect on opium production, however, and the continued resiliency of
narcotics traffickers will keep Southeast Asia a major supplier of heroin to
world markets.
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Thailand's limited crop-substitution program continues to be poorly
enforced, and Bangkok has been slow to promote wider participation among
farmers who find alternate crops financially attractive only when opium prices
are severely depressed. Until recently, Thai eradication efforts have been
limited, but a small-scale eradication campaign instituted earlier this year
may signal a softening of attitudes on this issue.
Burma is estimated to grow more than 80 percent of the opium produced in
Southeast Asia. Burma's narcotics control programs, such as its manual crop
eradication projects, have had little impact to date; and its plans to expand
narcotics control efforts have encountered problems such as high-level
government and military corruption. During 1983, Bo Ni, the Minister of Home
and Religious Affairs--who was responsible for narcotics suppression programs-
-and Brigadier General Tin 00 were both convicted of corruption and sentenced
to life in prison.
Outlook for the Future--The outlook for the future is troublesome.
Although our crop estimates may not be precise, we are confident that
worldwide production of opium, coca, and marijuana will increase in 1984 and
that large, long-term declines in drug crop harvests are unlikely in most of
the key producing countries in the foreseeable future. This will result in a
continued increase in the quantity of drugs available for export to the United
States. We cannot, however, project the precise impact of these increases on
the availability, price, or purity of drugs in the United States.
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