WORLD BEEF SUPPLY AND DEMAND: RECENT TRENDS AND SOME PROJECTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001700050061-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 13, 2006
• Sequence Number: 61
• Publication Date: November 1, 1973
• Content Type: IM

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Confidential
Th oq s
Intelligence Memorandum
World Beef Supply and Demand:
Recent Trends and Some Projections
CIA
DOCUMENT SERVICES BRANCH
FILE: COPY
00 NOT DESTROY
Confidential
ER IM 73-64
November 1973
Copy N2 127
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Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Past Trends in Production, Consumption, and Trade . . . . . . . . I
Rising Demand and Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
The Outlook for Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Outlook for Beef Demand, Prices, and Trade . . . . . . . . . . 10
Appendix
Methodology for the Beef Consumption Function
and Demand Projections for 1975 and 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1. Projections of Beef Demand by Major Importers
with High Economic Growth, 1975 and 1980 . . . . . . . . . 17
2. Projections of Beef Demand ley Major Importers
with Low Economic Growth, 1975 and 1980 . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 1. World Beef Production . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . I
Figure 2. Annual Changes in World Beef Production . . . . . . . . 2
Figure 3. United States: Live Cattle and Retail
Beef Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Figure 4. Imports and Exports as a Share
of Consumption and Production . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Figure S. Wholesale Prices of Pork and Broilers . . . . . . . . . . 5
Figure 6. Wholesale Beef Prices in Importing Countries . . . . . . . 6
Figure 7. Changes in Cattle Herds and World Slaughter . . . . . . . 7
Figure 8. United States: Slaughter and Farm Losses,
Herd Changes, and Beef Production . . . . . . . . . . 8
Figure 9. Australia and New Zealand: Slaughter,
Herd Changes, and Beef Production . . . . . . . . . . 9
Figure 10. Argentina: Slaughter, Herd Changes,
and Beef Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Figure 11. Relationship Between Income
and Beef Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Figure 12. Total Beef Demand and Supply of Major Consumers . . . 12
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World Beef Supply and Demand:
Recent Trends
and Some Projections
World beef production has leveled off since 1970, while demand has continued to climb
rapidly. The result has been a sharp rise in world beef prices to historic highs. During the
period 1971-September 1973, wholesale prices increased nearly 100% in the United
Kingdom, 60% in the European Community, and about 45% in the United States. Major
consuming countries have had to increase beef imports and liberalize import controls in
order to meet the growth in demand. Although the beef production cycle has caused periods
of stagnation in the past, market uncertainties, increasing cattle prices, and worldwide
shortages of animal feeds have prolonged the period of cattle herd expansion and low
output.
Because the cutback in slaughtering has produced an unprecedented worldwide buildup
in cattle herds, sharply higher beef output can be expected over the next few years,
primarily in the United States, Latin 'America, Australia, and New Zealand. US output
could increase by as much as 30% and that of Australia-New Zealand by 50%.
Demand for beef, buoyed by sharply rising incomes in major consuming areas, will
continue to grow rapidly, but less than production, and cattle prices consequently should
soften over the next couple of years. The result should be lower world beef prices and a
large potential for US exports of high-grade beef, particularly to Japan.
Expanding US production coupled with rising world demand should lead to a fall in US
net imports in 1974 and a rise in Japanese and West European imports. These developments
will have a favorable impact on the US balance of payments. The major US policy concern
over the next few years will be to promote exports of high-grade beef to Europe and Japan.
European protectionist policies will hinder US exports in that area, but exports to Japan
should face fewer problems.
Note: This memorandum was discussed with analysts in the Foreign Agricultural Service
and the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture who are in
general agreement with its findings. Questions on this memorandum may be addressed
to and documentation for the calculations may be obtained from the 25X1
Office of Economic RcscarcllI_
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Past Trends in Production, Consumption, and Trade
1. World beef production increased almost constantly during the
1960s, but has leveled off at about 75 billion pounds since 1970 (see Figure
1).1 The United States currently accounts for about 30% of total world
output. Western Europe, Japan, and the United States account for the bulk
of world imports, while Latin America and Australia-New Zealand supply
most of the exports. Communist countries supply a small, but growing,
amount of beef to Western Europe.
WORLD BEEF PRODUCTION
1. Throughout this memanndum, date on production and consumption are given in arcau weight
equivalents.
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2. Although output increased in 1972, following a drop in 1971, it
was only marginally above the 1970 level (see Figure 2). US output dropped
as the trough of the beef production cycle was reached, while higher milk
prices in the European Community (EC) induced West European farmers to
build up dairy herds and reduce slaughter rates. Latin American output
continued to grow through 1969, but then fell as Argentine cattle
slaughtering dropped sharply. Only Australia and New Zealand continued to
boost output vigorously during the late 1960s and early 1970s.
ANNUAL CHANGES IN WORLD BEEF PROQUCTION
3. Beef production is an unusual industry, particularly because, to a
large extent, its capital stock and output are interchangeable. Output
increases sharply when breeding animals are sold for slaughter and drops
when producers hold back more animals for breeding purposes. Thus periods
of disinvestment alternate with periods of investment. As a result, beef
producers' expectations can have a major impact on output, and the
production response to price changes is often the reverse of that for normal
products - at least in the short run. These factors largely explain the cyclical
nature of beef production and are likely to dominate production trends over
the short run.
4. At the same time, the beef industry is peculiar in that it is
typically small scale and oriented to local and regional markets. Commercial
production of beef in feedlots is an industry of this century and is only now
beginning to become significant outside the United States. Because grain
prices were generally stable until recently, the increased efficiency of beef
production in feedlots offset increasing pressure on pasturelands, and prices
for live cattle remained remarkably stable over the past 25 years (see Figure
3). Wholesale and retail beef prices rose sharply, however, as this increased
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140
100
s
280
FIGURE 3
UNITED STATESo LIVE-. CATTLE AND RETAIL BEEF, PRICES*
AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE
PER POUND
0 L l L_L_1_
1947 50
CMin g'm ANG
wturuar
LIVE WEIGHT BEEF CATTLE PRICES
RECEIVED BY FARMERS
L_L 1 J_1 ~ I 11~1J.__L LLL LLJ_L_
efficiency of production was not matched in distribution and processing.
The trend toward greater use of feedlots for fattening cattle will continue in
the future, but efficiency in these operations probably will grow more
slowly. This means that the price of beef will become increasingly dependent
on the price of grain and other inputs.
5. Most of the world's beef is consumed in the country of origin.
Imports account for only a small portion of total consumption even in
countries most dependent upon imported supplies, while exporting countries
generally consume most of their own output (see Figure 4). Argentina,
Brazil, Uruguay, Australia, and New Zealand provide more than 85% of
world exports, while the United States, Western Europe, and Japan account
for nearly 85% of total world imports. Sluggish domestic production and
rapidly rising beef prices during the past several years, however, have caused
Western Europe and the United States to rely even more heavily on imports
and to liberalize beef import controls. The United States suspended quotas
on imports in mid-1972. The EC halved its tariff to 10%, and rising prices
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IMPORTS AND EXPORTS AS A SHARE
OF CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION
IMPORTING COUNTRIES
TOTAL PRODUCTION-100
?6
I e io es o e 70 66 70 ? 66 70 ? 66 70
UNITED WESTERN JAPAN ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA BRAZIL
STATES EUROPE
'Pnliminiry 1972
612114 10.73
IMPORTS
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FIGURE 4
EXPORTING COUNTRIES
TOTAL CONSUMPTION-100
caused a phasing out o the variable levy. As a result, EC imports shot up
50% in 1972. US purchases also rose. At the same time, Japan-not yet a
major consurrter of beef-increased its imports dramatically, primarily from
Australia and New Zealand.
6. The United States, the world's largest importer, buys almost 10%
of domestic needs from abroad, including about one million head of live
cattle from Mexico and Canada for finishing and slaughtering. The United
States also imports inexpensive frozen or chilled boneless beef from
Australia and New Zealand, and canned, cooked, and frozen beef from Latin
America. South American fresh beef, barred from the United States because
of the danger of hoof and mouth disease, is sent mostly to Western Europe.
West European countries have slowly increased their imports, which now
account for more than 15% of their total beef consumption. Most of the
Continent's beef imports come from Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay and
include a growing amount of special cuts, mainly for restaurants. Western
Europe also imports more than one million head of live beef and dairy cattle
from Eastern Europe.
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Rising Demand and Prices
7. Until the early 1970s, demand for beef grew only slightly faster
than supply, supplies of beef substitutes were ample, and beef prices
remained fairly stable. Beef consumption in most countries rises nearly as
fast as real income over the long run. In the United States, a 33% rise in real
per capita income and a 12% rise in population over the last 10 years was
accompanied by a 41% rise in beef and veal consumption. Beef consumption
in Europe grew by 30% over the same period. Japanese beef consumption is
rising sharply because of rising incomes and changing tastes. Other nations
also are increasing their consumption. During the past two years, world
incomes, particularly those of the industrial nations, which consume most of
the world's beef, have increased at exceptionally high rates, The combined
real GNP of OECD countries rose 5.8% in 1972 and will rise about 7% in
1973, compared with an average of only 5% since 1960.
8. During the late 1960s and until 1973, ample pork and poultry
provided ready substitutes for beef and thus moderated the rise in beef
prices, as beef supply did not increase as fast as demand. US and EC pork
and poultry prices in 1971 were below 1966 levels (see Figure 5). However,
FIGURE 5
PORK E..: BROILERS
50 ~--
0 L-
1988
EUROPEAN
COMMUNITYIB)
69 70
273
JAN-Mer
0L
1999
UNITED EUROPEAN
KINGDOM COMMUNITY(R)
73.
Jim-MIT
prices of these beef substitutes increased dramatically at the end of 1972 and
in early 1973, when fishmeal and soybeans, used primarily for hog and
WK0LESALE PRICES OF PORK AND BROILERS
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NHOLESALE BEEF PRICES
N. IMPORTING COUNTRIES
EUROPEAN COMMUNITY*
because of the higher export
prices, world beef exports
jumped from US $2.8 billion
in 1971 to about $4 billion
in 1972. US beef imports in
1972 totaled $1 billion, re
placing sugar as the second
largest US agricultural im-
port (following coffee).
The Outlook for Supply
10. World beef pro-
FIGURE 8
1:W : UNITF.11 KINGDOM as duction has the potential to
of I 1-
1999
grow. much more rapidly
during the mid-1970s than in
the past three years. Paced
1 I I I ' by the United States and
99 10 71 12 73 Australia-New Zealand,
'""se
j cattle herds in most major
YA~Kti b A WA, mn/M/hn {I/BH/loot N~fMrNnd,. Wail Gmnnany. l' . ...
O,,sudStN;,Nr circa:: ate ar:;N,w rc,F Western Europe have ' z- rown
Bul/ooh, and helart, livrgooI rwghl Iquiv l nt to good. substantially since the !dte
e2110 I0?1e
poultry feed, became scarce and their prices skyrocketed2 and there was also
a large increase in the prices of feed grains.3 In fact, higher prices for beef
substitutes intensified the demand for beef.
9. Rapidly rising demand caused by rising incomes and sharply rising
prices for substitutes combined with a slowly increasing supply have caused
an unprecedented worldwide rise it, beef prices. After increasing only
gradually during the late 1960s, beef prices subsequently began to rise
sharply in the United States and Western Europe (see Figure 6). Largely
;d80.
TAT
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are expected to increase
rapidly (see Figure 7). Beef output should also benefit from larger sup-
plies of animal feeds, as prospects are that the 1973 Wain and soybean
harvests will be markedly larger and that Peru's fishmeal output will likely
recover by late. 1974. High feed prices coupled with retail price controls in
the United States have retarded beef output since late 1972 by reducing
feedlot operators' purchases of feeder cattle in the United States, while also
3. Unlike other major beef producers, the United States fattens its cattle mainly with feed grains, the
nrirr. nr whin6 m.n .1k._%. _V.__ f---- -----_.
25X1 '
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~MalrrL IIY, CATTLE HERDS
AND WORLD.4LAUGHTER
HERDS IN SELECTED'000NTRIES'*
100
causing more European animals
to be slaughtered for veal rather
than fattened. Thus, with US
prices no longer controlled, not
only is the slaughter rate likely
to increase markedly, but the
beef yield per animal also is
likely to improve.
11. US beef production
should account for most of this
large increase. The potential for
increases in US output is larger
now than at any time since the
ARGENTINA
1882! 84 88';' 88' ;; 70 !;:92
WORLD+SLAUGHTERi:
Li t ! i i
1882'.;", 84~ az 198 :: 88 .
B~/lnnli/ NrNr ~.;
auto io:nr;;r;':;~,~'?
close of the Korean War, when
production rose 60% in 'five
years. US cattlemen have been
building herds since 1967 and
have decreased slaughtering (see
Figure 8). Beef production in-
creased through 1972 because of
a rise in the average slaughter
weight per animal.4 The large
herd buildup in the United States
seems certain to lead to increased
beef output-as much as a 30%
increase could be achieved during
1974-76 without cutting into
herd size. The assumption of
increased beef production, how-
ever, depends on ample feed sup
plies. If disappointing crops
should keep feed prices high rela-
tive to beef prices, feedlot oper-
ators would then find it more
profitable to feed a higher rough-
age diet which would cut the
weight of slaughter animals and
the growth in beef production.
12. Australian and New
Zealand production also should
increase substantially during th-
1970s. Herds have risen 55%
Ttus continues a trend which began in the mid-1950s of slaughtering fewer calves. Calves now
account for only about 8% of total slaughter, and future increases in US beef output will depend
almost entirely on increases in the number of animals killed. Because Western Europe and
Australia-New Zealand still kill a large numbe- of calves, future declines in calf slaughter and.higher
slaughter weights should add to beef output in these areas during the 1970s.
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HERD CHANGES, AND BEEF PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES: SLAUGHTER PLUS FARM LOSSES,
01 I I I I I I I I I I I I J-1-1-J-1 I 1 1 I I I I 1 1 L1 I I I I I' .
1940 45 cn 0
since the mid-1960s and should continue to increase throughout this
decade.s Beef output probably could be boosted by as much as 50% over the
next two years without stopping the growth in herd size. Because about
one-half the region's output is exported and domestic consumption is
increasing only slowly, the volume available for export should continue to
rise dramatically.
13. Latin America's herds, especially in Argentina and Brazil, also
have grown to record levels in recent years (see Figure 10), and the region
could increase beef supplies substantially. But this need not lead to larger
exports, as Argentine and Brazilian beef consumption has been held down by
controls in recent years, and much of the potential increase thus may go to
satisfy increased domestic demand.
14. Output in Japan and Western Europe is unlikely to expand
rapidly. Growth in West European herds has been minimal, and substantial
5. If herds continue to expand at their current rate, and calf slaut7,hter continues to decline, beef
output over the next several years would increase as much as 20% antr.ualiy (see Figure 9). Moreover, if
Australia and New Zealand increase their meat processing capacil. they could boost output even
more rapidly by increasing slaughter rates and slowing the growth in herd size.
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AUSTRALIA'AND NEW ZEALAND:, SLAUGHTER,
HERD CHANGES, AND BEEF PRODUCTION
10
FIGURE 9
01 I 1 1 1 1 1 1
1982 ''03 84 05, 68 87 88 69
AND BEEF_ PRODUCTION
ARGENTINA: SLAUGHTER, HERD CHANGES,
3E
2 cl
1 =
~.J 0
70 ' 71 72
p~ I I I I I I I _j I !
1981 ' 82 83' 84 85 88 67 88 89 70, 71
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rises in slaughter rates the possible only at the expense of breeding stock. A
large portion of Western Europe's cattle are dairy animals, and herd sizes tire
more affected by prices for dairy products than for beef. Thus the sharp rise
in beef prices has not produced a corresponding buildup of herds. At the
same time, high feed prices have reduced the incentives for fattening calves.
Grain prices will remain higher in the EC under the Common Agricultural
Policy than in most other areas, and this will restrict the growth of beef
output. Entrance of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and Denmark into the EC
will raise beef prices in these countries. Initially, such a rise will induce
producers to build up their herds and thus reduce output, but eventually will
lead to higher beef output. Japan's herds have fallen substantially over the
past few years as the lure of high profits induced the slaughter of some
breeding stock and dairy cattle. Therefore, little or no increase in Japanese
beef output is likely, and Japan's rapidly growing beef requirements will
have to be met through increased imports.
Outlook for Beef Demand, Prices, and Trade
15. Demand for beef will continue to increase rapidly during the
1970s. In the major importing nations, demand is expcctcd to rise by some
30%v to 45% by 1980, depending on the rate of economic growth. Figure I I
shows the close relations between income and beef consumption; Tables I
and 2 in the Appendix project levels of beef consumption in major importing
nations.
16. US demand for beef is expected to increase to 123.128 pounds
per capita in 1975 and to 127-136 pounds per capita in 1980, depending
upon income levels. Demand is expected to rise more rapidly in Western
Europe than in the United States, largely because p??1 eay 31ac^ ^aa~ actif'L, 1)1 r}* :ga
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cveffi?.ieni was 0.95 and the T-vah-e was 25.9, significant at the ti 4t5 le+'el.
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