NIC ACTIVITY REPORT FOR 2 - 6 MAY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000200050048-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 2007
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: May 6, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
NIC# 3367-83
6 May 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM . Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT : NIC Activity Report for 2-6 May 1983
I. DCI/DDCI-Assigned Tasks
NIO/Near East-South Asia provided talking points to the DDCI on US
policy toward Iran in preparation for a SIG meeting -- subsequently
postponed -- on NSSD 4-83 (US Security Strategy for Southwest Asia).
Chairman, NIC, VC/NIC (H. Meyer), D/NIC/AG (H. Ford) and AG
officers met with the DCI on 4 May to discuss the work of the NIC's
Analytic Group.
NIC officers began drafting briefing materials on global
developments and on Central America for the DCI's meeting with PFIAB on
11 May.
II. Interagency Papers
The draft NIE on the South Pacific,
and the draft Terms of Reference for a SNIE on Andropov's
approach to US-USSR issues are slated for discussion at NFIB on 10 May.
Assistant NIO/Latin America obtained final clearances on a draft
interagency assessment on Pinochet's Chile and had it distributed to the
requester (Assistant Secretary of State Enders) and the Community.
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III. Of Special Interest This Week
Chairman, NIC, VC/NIC (C. Waterman), NIO/USSR-EE and others
attended the first in a series of joing NIC-OSD/Office of Net
Assessments seminars on the Soviet perception of world developments.
The first speaker
whose most noteworthy points were:
o The USSR is overextended and would like to pull
back, particularly in Afghanistan.
o But the Soviets will maintain the pressure through
the Cubans in Central America unless there is a
large geopolitical deal with the US.
o The Soviet defense effort absorbs about 25-30
percent of GNP; Moscow would like to reduce this,
but is prepared to raise it to counter the US.
o Soviet leaders do not understand the West and
genuinely believe that the US intentionally
sabotaged detente.
C/NIC, together with NIO/East Asia and ~ (DC/TTAC) attended
a meeting of the Export Administration Review Board on technology
transfer to China. There was no resolution of outstanding differences;
two papers are being prepared (by NSC and DoD).
C/NIC, together with NIO/EA and others, attended a Rand conference
on the Washington-Beijing-Moscow triangle; and together with A/NIO/LA,
briefed Senator Bradley (D., NJ) on Central' American issues.
VC/NIC (Waterman) discussed Middle East issues with officers of
Brookings and Georgetown's CSIS.
NIO at Large (L. Gordon) attended a symposium on NATO at the
National Defense University; received briefings from DI/OGI on Arctic
and Antarctic issues; and met with the director of NDU's Strategic
Concepts Development Center on several areas of potential common
interest with the NIC.
NIO at Large (H. Heymann) met with the editors of the DIA Nuclear
Proliferation Watch to review their plans for a change in publication
format; and lunched with Don Gregg, the Vice President's national
security staff chief, to discuss intelligence-policy interests.
NIO/East Asia discussed the 1983 estimates schedule with East Asia
Intelligence Community managers; attended an Asia Society meeting on
South Korea; and briefed an American Enterprise Institute scholar
preparing to visit East Asia.
NIO/Economics attended a meeting at Commerce at the invitation of
Michael Liikala, Special Assistant to Under Secretary Lionel Olmer, to
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discuss the implications of the debt crisis for US companies operating
in Latin America.
NI0/General Purpose Forces briefed officers of the Army
Intelligence Threat Analysis Center (ITAC) on 2 May and the Advanced
Intelligence Course at the Army War College on 5 May on the readiness of
Soviet forces. He also briefed LTG Thurman, Army Vice Chief of Staff-
designate, on the GPF program and current interest in unconventional
warfare.
NI0/Narcotics exchanged views with the Chairman, Critical
Intelligence Problems Committee (CIPC) on avoiding overlap between CIPC
and NIO/N activities; and arranged a discussion between Intelligence
Community narcotics program managers and the DCI.
NIO/Near East-South Asia provided the DCI with some thoughts on the
potential pluses and minuses for Syria and Israel resulting from
hostilities between them in the near term.
NI0/NESA
meets today with NSC staffer Geoff K
emp and two NIC consultants--
to discuss the full range of
NI0/S&T and STAP Chairma met with LTG Paul
Gorman tn disci JCS needs for the type of S&T intelligence contained
in NIE Gen. Gorman said he thought it could be very valuable
in JCS long-range planning efforts and in dealing with policymakers who
always ask "where is the US ahead, and where are we behind the Soviets?"
NIO/Strategic programs briefed Bill Hoehn, Deputy Assistant
Secretary of Defense International Security Policy, on the findings of
the Soviet ABM estimate; and met with Q of Rand to discuss the
findings of the draft NIE on Soviet space programs.
NI0/USSR-East Europe attended an IG meeting on Romania. He also
attended a debriefing of just back from the
USSR. The main messag is at the Soviets want a
Summit, with the only condition being that they set 50 percent of the
agenda.
A/NI0/USSR attended a conference on Soviet censorship. All
participants agreed that repression is currently intensifying, but were
encouraged by the continued defiance of the intelligentsia, which
includes the dispatch of works for publication abroad.
SECRET
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IV. Future Activities
(Nothing of particular significance to report at this time.)
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SECRET
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SUBJECT: NIC Activity Report, 2-6 May 1983
Distribution:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - EXDIR
1 - SA/IDA
1 - ER
1 - DDI
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 - D/AG
1 - Each NIO
1 - NIC/AG
1 - E0/NIC
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