NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 14 DECEMBER 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000600010158-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 5, 2007
• Sequence Number: 158
• Publication Date: December 14, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Director of
Central
Intelligence
boo /cp 6L
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
Top Secret
`
14 4 De N`OC 8 December 1982
Copy 4 0 2
 Contents
Poland: Suspension of Martial Law . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Portugal: Setback for BaZsemao . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Western Europe - Poland: Allies' Reactions . . . . . . . 7
Nicaragua: Helicopter Crash Tied to US . . . . . . . . . 7
South Africa - Angola: Results of Talks . . . . . . . . . 8
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 Government officials yesterday said the regime has deferred
the "suspension" of martial law to 31 December, with parliament
scheduled to pass "necessary" legislation before Christmas.
State President Jablonski yesterday presented to
the parliament draft legislation that would lift martial
law restrictions on internal travel, communications, and
public gatherings. The State Council will be given the
authority to reimpose restrictions nationwide or in
individual provinces and, according to two parliamentary
deputies, may delegate this responsibility to local
Provisions for internment are also to be dropped,
but, according to another parliamentary source, the
regime may reserve special powers to extend the deten-
tion of certain individuals. Activists convicted of
violating martial law regulations can, upon appeal, be
granted clemency by the State Council.
Jablonski added that some martial law restrictions
designed to protect state security, public order, and
the economy will stay in effect. Military commissars
will remain in major factories and perhaps the mines.
Restrictions on publications will stay intact, and the
authorities will retain considerable latitude for employ-
The martial law ban on strikes will be lifted, but
recent trade union legislation sets out lengthy proce-
dures that all but preclude strikes. Workers who violate
the procedures now can be summarily dismissed.
Parliament may not act on the draft legislation
until this Saturday, or, as one government spokesman
Comment: The regime clearly is moving cautiously.
The draft laws appear to set up a maze of legal regula-
tions that will allow the government to do virtually
whatever it wants and will not seriously erode its ability
to maintain control. Premier Jaruzelski may be committed
to a lengthy transition period and probably hopes that
the prospect of the full lifting of martial law and a
papal visit next summer will induce people to avoid pro-
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 //The municipal elections on Sunday dealt Prime Minister
Balsemao's Democratic Alliance coalition a setback, but the results
do not immediately jeopardize his center-right government.//
//Nearly all of the returns are in, and the
Democratic Alliance--a coalition of Social Democrats,
Center Democrats, and Popular Monarchists--has polled
44 percent of the vote, down from 47.2 percent in the
local elections in 1979. Balsemao's Social Democrats
are doing somewhat worse than their Center Democrat
//The Socialists, led by Mario Soares, have increased
their total to 31.4 percent, up 3 points from 1979. The
Communist Party is retaining the support of roughly one-
fifth of the electorate.//
Comment: //Although opposition leaders have already
demanded the dismissal of the government, President Eanes
is unlikely to consider the Alliance's drop of 4.2 per-
centage points to be adequate cause. Balsemao had
announced he would consider a loss of over 5 percent to
//The Prime Minister can argue that a small setback
in municipal elections is to be expected. For example,
he could compare the Alliance's showing after three years
in power with the Socialists' drop by 10 points in sim-
//The better showing by the Center Democrats, led by
Defense Minister Freitas do Amaral, may result in an in-
crease in their influence in the coalition. Freitas is
reaffirming support for the government and is not challeng-
ing the Social Democrats' preeminence, but he says his
party wants greater representation within the Alliance.
Balsemao is likely to acquiesce, and recent high-level
defections from his party will make it easier for him to
change the cabinet to give his coalition partner a some-
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 //Premier Jaruzelski's speech suspending martial law
had been anticipated for some time by most of the NATO
Allies, and they have been advocating a cautious reaction
to it. The Allies emphasized last week that improved
relations with Poland depend on actual implementation of
civil rights and reinstitution of the reform process.
Most of them are considering brief "holding" statements
noting the regime's actions while reserving judud me
about possible changes in Western policy.//
Comment: //The ambiguity and conditionality of
Jaruzelski's announcement will reinforce the Allies'
inclination to wait and see. A majority nevertheless
probably would want the West to respond positively to
any real improvements in Poland and improve relations in
proportion to the degree of liberalization. If the
Polish authorities do reduce the military's role and
relax control measures, many Allies are likely to advo-
cate acceptance of debt rescheduling, less emphasis on
Poland at the CSCE conference, and an increase in politi-
A Sandinista communique has implied the US is re-
sponsible for a helicopter crash that allegedly killed
75 children and linked the incident to alleged US support
for guerrilla groups operating in the Honduran border
region. The government has organized massive public
protest demonstrations and has promised an investigation
to determine if the helicopter was shot down.
Comment: The incident has brought to light another
forced evacuation of Indians from the border region to
camps in the interior. The Defense Minister subsequently
acknowledged that some additional 7,500 Indians are being
moved from northern Jinotega Department, the scene of
growing anti-Sandinista violence. In January some
10,000 Miskito Indians were removed from northern Zelaya
Department. Many of the Indians probably are being re-
located because of fears that they are sympathetic to
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 //South African and Angolan representatives, at their
meeting last week in Cape Verde, discussed measures to ease
tensions as a first step toward achieving a settlement on
Namibia.
Pretoria proposed a mutual 60-day freeze on military activ-
ity in southern Angola, followed by a withdrawal of South
African troops from Angola and a northward shift of Cuban,
Angolan, and Namibian insurgent forces away from the
Angolan-Namibian border area. South Africa would then re-
duce its troops in Namibia to 1,500 in tandem with a phased
departure of all Cuban troops from Angola. Pretoria con-
ditioned its proposals, however, on a prior Angolan commit-
Comment: //Although South Africa still insists on
a total Cuban troop withdrawal, it apparently has backed
off from its public position that all Cuban troops have
to be out of Angola before any South African forces leave
Namibia. Angola seemed receptive to the proposed disen-
gagement of forces, but there was no indication it is
ready to meet Pretoria's demand on the Cuban troop issue.
Both sides evidently expect to meet again for more dis-
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 The Soviet
aircraft
Minsk, accompanied by a cruiser,
began a visit to Bombay,
last weekend--the first time a
Soviet aircraft carrier has visited Indi
a. The last
port
late
call by Soviet naval combatants to
last year and coincided with Naval
Bombay
Chief
occurred
Gorshkov's
trip
to India.
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Comment: //In addition to using the Minsk as a symbol
of good bilateral relations, the visit presumably is also
a part of a continuing Soviet effort to gain access to
Indian facilities. The Indians, however, are unlikely
to reconsider their policy of restricting Soviet port
visits to ceremonial occasions. The Minsk's deployment
in the Indian Ocean could last several months, and it
presumably will make port calls elsewhere in the region.//
 //Most workers and businesses resumed regular opera-
tions yesterday, but the gime still faces
problems. the surviving leaders
of the major a or e erations agreed under duress to
urge their members back to work. Although several calls
for a general strike were issued last week work sto a es
failed to affect essential services.//
Comment: The labor federations' will to resist
apparently has been broken, and the unions are unlikely
for now to engage in any antigovernment activities. The
general population, although intimidated, probably will
remain alienated. As a result, Army Commander Bouterse
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