NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 26 MARCH 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010092-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 18, 2007
• Sequence Number: 92
• Publication Date: March 26, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
CO 1VID
26 March 1982
Copy 402
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rop secret
Central America: Salvadoran Insurgent Attacks . . . . . . 1
Middle East: Unrest in West Bank and Gaza . . . . . . . . 3
Finland: Communist Party Chairman To Resign . . . . . . . 4
Western Europe - El Salvador: Views on Elections . . . . 5
Special Analysis
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Top Secret
CENTRAL AMERICA: Salvadoran Insurgent Attacks
nista domestic repression.//
//The Salvadoran guerrilla preelection offensive finally
appears to be gaining some momentum. In Guatemala, opposition
parties have endorsed the coup despite the new junta's prohibition
of political activities. Nicaraguan moderates are worried that
international efforts at a regional settlement will ignore Sandi-
Comment: //Insurgent armed strength in the northeast
is nearly equal to or even greater than that of the gov-
ernment, and the guerrillas there have a good chance of
at least a temporary success. This was the area where
they declared a short-lived liberated zone last August
before a government counterattack reversed their fortunes.//
the failure of the current junta to promise elections.
According to press reports, rightwing leader Sandoval
has stated his intention of forming a coalition with the
Guatemalan Opposition Concerns
Despite their endorsement of the coup, the three
opposition candidates who challenged General Guevara's
electoral victory earlier this month are concerned about
Christian Democrats to press for new balloting.
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City.
Comment: The issues of elections and civilian rule
appear to be critical for the success of the junta. The
political parties and many of the junior officers are
likely to challenge Rios Montt if he proves unbending,
and most Western governments will await assurances of
new elections before strengthening ties with Guatemala
Concerns of Nicaraguan Moderates
An alliance of various moderate Nicaraguan political
and business organizations has issued a statement support-
ing the Mexican initiative to reduce tensions in Central
America, but calling on the Sandinista regime to respect
political pluralism and a mixed economic system. It
urges the government to begin a dialogue with moderate
opposition sectors under the supervision of a committee
forei n invo 7 ement in domestic Nicaraguan politics.
ment, the Sandinista government is likely to reject a
Comment: Nicaraguan moderates have been increasingly
isolated and demoralized since a state of emergency was
decreed earlier this month. Despite the moderates' state-
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//Tel Aviv will use the killing yesterday of an Israeli soldier
in the Gaza Strip by a radical Palestinian group to strengthen its
claims that the current unrest in the occupied territories is
inspired by the PLO.//
attack inside Israel.
The Marxist Democratic Front for the Liberation of
Palestine in Beirut has claimed credit for the attack,
in which three other Israelis were wounded. The group
earlier this month claimed responsibility for a bomb
PLO.
Senior Israeli officials are insisting that the
current unrest is tied to PLO efforts to maintain sup-
port in the territories. West Bank civil administrator
Milson, who has day-to-day responsibility for the area,
claimed yesterday that the PLO was inciting the unrest
in a last-ditch effort to undermine the Israeli-backed
Village Leagues. Defense Minister Sharon hinted that
more mayors, in addition to the two dismissed yesterday,
might be removed shortly because of their ties to the
refugee camps.
The Egyptian press has become increasingly critical
of Israel's actions--accusing Tel Aviv of deliberately
provoking the unrest to create a pretext for annexing
the West Bank and invading Lebanon--although the Egyp-
tian Government has been more restrained. In Jordan
there were large demonstrations yesterday at Palestinian
punitive actions by the Israelis.//
in Israeli civilian casualties--could lead to strong
Comment: //High-level Israeli military officials
initially did not charge that the killing violated the
cease-fire with the Palestinians, but the Israelis
almost certainly regard the attack as extremely serious.
Further incidents--particularly if they were to result
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split.
FINLAND: Communist Party Chairman To Resign
The decision of Communist Party Chairman Saarinen to resign
sets the stage for further changes in the party leadership as it
struggles to prevent deepening factionalism from becoming an open
Party and other center parties.
Party hardliners are not happy that the leading
contender to succeed Saarinen is party Secretary General
Aalto, whom they accuse of "revisionism" for advocating
closer policy cooperation with the Social Democratic
party's Stalinist wing, to resign as well.
Saarinen announced on Wednesday that he would step
down from the chairmanship at the extraordinary party
congress scheduled for 14 and 15 May. He predicted
other major changes in the leadership, indicating that
he expected Vice Chairman Sinisalo, the leader of the
the Finnish and Soviet parties.
The Soviets have made it clear to Finnish Communist
leaders that they would prefer a quarrelsome, but united,
party to two competing parties. They have hinted broadly
that a purge of Stalinists from the party leadership
would cause a marked deterioration in relations between
open split.
Comment: Although Sinisalo has not yet declared his
intentions, Soviet party officials may urge the Stalinists
to replace him in the hope of reducing the risk of an
schism and the decline of the party's popularity.
that the present leadership can only perpetuate the
A growing number of party members regard a change
of leaders as essential to a resolution of the 16-year-
old schism between the "liberal" majority and the hard-
line minority. A new and increasingly important bloc,
the so-called "Third Line," argues that the split between
liberals and hardliners has become so highly personalized
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Most West European public and professional political opinion
remains antagonistic to the junta and skeptical of the electoral
process; the death of the Dutch journalists has had most impact in
the Netherlands.
openly critical.//
//The approach of the election has prompted public
protests in Western Europe, and demonstrations in the
Netherlands have turned virulent. Although most West
European governments--caught between public opinion and
their desire not to strain relations with the US--are
still restrained in commenting on El Salvador, officials
in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark have become more
support of the insurgents.//
//Most West European Christian Democratic parties
are more positive toward the election than are the Social-
ists, and many are sending election observers. The
Italian party, however, refuses to participate. The
Dutch party has canceled plans to observe the election
and has joined in a call for recognition and financial
and distance themselves from the junta.//
Comment: //If the election strengthens the Salva-
doran right, the West European Socialists probably will
continue to call for a negotiated settlement, while
standing more firmly behind the opposition. The Christian
Democrats would be likely to press harder for negotiations
even decline.//
//If the West Europeans should become convinced after
the elections that the Salvadoran Christian Democrats are
a credible governing force, their attitudes toward the
El Salvador regime would become less negative. Socialists
and public activists would be slow to concur but, if they
did, they would still call for negotiations to include
moderate leftists in the political system. Their criti-
cism of the government, however, would level off and might
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Iq
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the new constituent assembly.
The voter turnout on Sunday could be substantial, but neither
of the two leading contenders--junta President Duarte's liberal
Christian Democrats and Roberto D'Aubuisson's ultraconservative
National Republican Alliance--appears to have better than a remote
chance of gaining a majority. Thus, the balloting will likely Zead
to intense rivalry by both parties to form a ruling coalition in
threaten their already fragile unity.
Although the extreme left and its foreign supporters
will denounce the results, their failure to stop the elec-
tion will be a severe psychological blow. This would be
magnified by a large voter turnout and by wide acceptance
of the result as legitimate. Such an outcome would reduce
international and domestic support for the guerrillas and
governments.
Nevertheless, the election presents additional chal-
lenges to the stability of the ruling structure. A re-
formist administration headed by the Christian Democrats
has the best chance of reaching a political settlement
with the insurgents, but for this reason it will remain
vulnerable to a military coup. A regime dominated by
ultraconservatives would heighten polarization, alienate
international backers, and ultimately face a greater
guerrilla challenge more strongly supported by foreign
Mechanics and Atmospherics
set dates for subsequent presidential elections.
ernments dominated by the military, is for a 60-member
constituent assembly. It will be empowered to appoint
a provisional government, draft a new constitution. n
The balloting, which will end a half century of gov-
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protect voter anonymity because of guerrilla threats.
any of 300 polling stations. Measures have been take
Interest appears high among the estimated 1.5 mil-
lion voters. To enhance turnout, the nonpartisan Central
Elections Council is permitting voters to cast ballots at
irregularities in the tabulation.
Insurgent propaganda has complicated the junta's
effort to give the election credibility abroad, but at
least 20 nations and the OAS are sending official ob-
servers. They will be given military protection and
permitted to witness the balloting at any location they
choose. The Central Elections Council, meanwhile, has
instituted measures to prevent fraudulent voting and
of insurgent violence.
The Campaign
The major competition--too close to call--pits the
reformist record of the Christian Democrats against the
personal and nationalistic appeal of D'Aubuisson. He
has used substantial funding and simple law-and-order
themes to extend his party's appeal beyond its natural
constituency of rightist military officers, landowners,
businessmen, and peasants aligned with the old order.
His promises of swift victory over the guerrillas appar-
ently have been persuasive with both urban and rural
workers, who increasingly suffer the economic effects
In contrast, the Christian Democrats have until
recently been content to rely on their political orga-
nization and record of reforms. Concerned, however,
that their appeal is being eroded by the right wing's
constant reminders of escalating guerrilla attacks and
continuing economic deterioration, they are publicly in-
sinuating D'Aubuisson's involvement in the assassination
of Archbishop Romero in 1.980. They have also designated
junta President Duarte--whose personal popularity is
unrivaled--as their candidate for provisional president,
and he has accepted.
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of the country's 14 departments. Of these, the old
center-right National Conciliation Party--which held
power from 1962 until the overthrow of General Romero
in 1979--retains significant support and is likely to
Top Secret
Four other parties are fielding candidates in each
be most prominent in any coalition government.
The campaign's bitter invective will
further complicate efforts to form a coalition.//
The Military
Relations between the military and the Christian
Democrats have deteriorated during the campaign. The
Christian Democrats are upset by the armed forces' re-
fusal to share responsibility for the economic disarray
and the continuing violence. They also are upset that
some military elements are supporting D'Aubuisson.
The generally conservative officer corps fears that
a reformist civilian government would threaten its inde-
pendence and prerogatives. Although the military is en-
joined from participating in the election, at least some
elements are likely to facilitate rightist balloting while
hindering voters suspected of being unsympathetic.
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at least some Western democracies.//
//If the turnout is substantial and the balloting
appears fair, the most stabilizing outcome would be a
Christian Democratic alliance with moderate elements
from one or more of the rightist parties. Such a result
would reduce the military's concerns about its institu-
tional survival and would receive strong backing from
for a political settlement.
Such support might persuade the leftist insurgents
to moderate their demands for a power-sharing arrangement
and a restructuring of the military. In time, the armed
forces might even be encouraged to engage in a dialogue
with the left that could eventually establish the basis
this kind would increase the chance of a coup.
interests are not threatened, civilian initiatives of
A landslide victory by the Christian Democrats would
increase strains with the military, which would be appre-
hensive about efforts to impose civilian control over the
armed forces and to make concessions to the guerrillas.
Although the military has shown itself willing to continue
supporting democratic processes as long as its critical
would benefit.
A D'Aubuisson-dominated government would cause re-
form programs to be abandoned, indiscriminate counter-
terrorist violence to intensify, and world opinion to be
overwhelmingly negative. Such an outcome would repudiate
Western support for peaceful political evolution and
human rights. Over the long term, only the extreme left
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