WESTERN ALTERNATIVES TO SOVIET NATURAL GAS: PROSPECTS AND IMPLICATIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001800190006-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2007
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: June 23, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/06/27: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01800190006-2
SECRET
The Dircctorof Central intelligence D~ n G 2~
W shin D. C 20505
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Honorable Frank C. Carlucci
Deputy Secretary of Defense
SUBJECT : Western Alternatives to Soviet Natural Gas:
Prospects and Implications (U)
REFERENCE. : Your Memorandum of 16 June 1982
1. Thank you for your thoughtful comments on and continued interest in
.the extremely important subject of Western European energy security.
2. As you will recall, the SNIE to which you refer foresees a growth in
Western European natural gas requirements of about 500,000 barrels a day oil
equivalents (b/doe) in the 1980s and a similar amount in the 1990s. The
Soviet-West European pipeline project was intended to meet that requirement.
Now that the US has made known its continued and active opposition to the
project, coming up with a rational alternative becomes even more important.
Those Europeans who have opposed increased dependency on the USSR for energy
will probably play an important role in this search.
3. The questions you raise, therefore, are right on the mark; although
we have done good work on this issue, a great deal more needs to be done.
Indeed, we have been asking ourselves some of the same questions and will
address them in the two forthcoming DDI studies on the political and economic
factors affecting the prospects for the development of (1) Northern Sea gas
and (2) Dutch pas. We are also doing a similar study-on Middle Eastern and
African gas. These studies should be completed by mid-July.
4. In addition, we are monitoring quite carefully the reactions in
Europe to the recent US decision on sanctions. Those reactions may.help us to
discover hidden constituencies which would be willing to take an active role
in opposing increased European dependency on Soviet energy.
William J_ Casey
This memorandum is classified SECRET.
Approved For Release 2007/06/27: CIA-RDP84B00049RO01800190006-2