CENTRAL AMERICA--OVERVIEW AND UPDATE FOR NSPG MEETING OF 13 JULY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000701830021-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: July 9, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/02/08 SKUKkEIRDP84B00049R000701830021-5
9 July 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM : National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Central America--Overview and Update for NSPG Meeting
of 13 July 1982
You have received background information items from 25X1
Duane Clarridge. Therefore, this is intended simply to highlight several
trends. The final section (V) responds to your request that NIOs discuss the
-implications of the intelligence. Information sources are indicated in
parent eses, where relevant.
1. Cuban/Nicaraguan Actions in Central America
-- Pattern of subversion, military buildup, covert intimidation, and
propaganda continues against all target countries. (all sources)
-- Cuban presence in Nicaragua may have increased by 2,000 to 8,000,
-- Escalation of public threats against Honduras, New York Times,
7 July 1982 quotes "high Sandinista official" as threatening
Honduras because of its help to E1 Salvador: "we will respond with
the same level of action. . "
II. Country Sketches
_El Salvador
-- As predicted by CIA, guerrillas have rearmed, regrouped, and are
stronger now than following the 28 March election.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R 00701830021-5
 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 s iERDP84B00049R000701830021-5
-- Guerrillas held Perquin for three weeks, inflicted heav sualties,
I Iand will 25X1
u attrition strategy while building their torces for
October 1982-January 1983 expansion of violence aimed at US aid
cutoff in late January 1983 certification. (my judgment)
-- Government holding together; external aid remains critical and the
lack of progress on the FY 1982 supplemental and the bruising battle
over the end of July certification could have negative effects.
-- D'Aubisson and the far right are opposed by the army, labor unions
(UPD/UCS), and the Christian Democrats, both in the effort to roll
back the land reform and in the opening of a separate negotiating
track with the guerrillas 25X1
-- Cubans might well try to play covertly on far right opposition to US
"interference" (e.g., support for land reform) in El Salvador and
their illusions of a separate deal such as pro osed by D'Aubisson.
Guatemala
-- Rios Montt government still fragile; it has declared an offensive
against the guerrillas following an amnesty period.
-- Guerrillas remain active at strength of 3,000-4,000; they have
massacred Indian peasants in several places recently to prevent
cooperation with government.
Honduras
-- Stable, democratic government; coopertion against communist
subversion has increased but could be reversed if US military and
economic aid not provided or if there is a perception that the US
will negotiate an accommodation with the extreme left in the region.
-- Threats from guerrillas and from Nicaraguan forces have increased
and will continue to grow.
Costa Rica
-- The democratic government is stable; economic problems remain great.
-- Cuban/Nicaraguan subversive efforts continue.
2
Approved For Release 2007/02/08SECp RDP84B00049R000701830021-5
 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 S ftliDP84B00049R000701830021-5
III. Other International Support for the Extreme Left
0
PLO/Radical Arabs
PLO more visible in Nicaragua since Israeli invasion
of Lebanon; PLO providing an estimate 30-50 pilots and airplane
mechanics and "is also assisting the military in restoring the radar
-- Note visits of Cuban Foreign Minister and Nicaraguan leaders to
Beirut in recent weeks.
France
-- Sandinista leader Ortega to visit as official guest,
12-14 July 1982.
-- This would be a large propaganda boost for the third anniversary.
Socialist International
wi reexamine its views on Nicaragua/El Salvador at the fall 1982
Executive Bureau meeting.
IV. Negotiations
-- As expressed in the SNIE of June 1982, the Cuban/Nicaraguan/FMLN
purposes remain the same: to use negotiations to weaken the target
governments and prevent more assertive international counteraction.
US-Nicarau a--No Progress
the SI will send a committee to Nicaragua and
-- August 1981, US proposals; Sept/Oct Sandinista anti-US rhetoric.
I
Approved For Release 2007/02/09E& j-RDP84B00049R000701830021-5
 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 IWkDP841300049R000701830021-5
-- April 1982, US eight points.
-- 19 February 1982, Nicaraguans "together with the Mexicans" propose
El Salvador "peace plan".
-- 7 May, Nicaragua responds to 8 April proposal by restating
grievances and calling for an end to US "destabilization".
-- 2 July, US responds to Nicaragua by indicating willingness to
continue dialogue and also offers to provide personnel to help them
locate the DRU headquarters and close it down (since Nicaragua
indicated they don't know where the command and control center is
operating from).
Nicaragua-Honduras - latest meeting on 9 July (naval commanders) no
resu ts; series of talks used by Nicaragua to threaten and/or
persuade Honduras.
I 4
Approved For Release 2007/02/0?EQ S RDP84B00049R000701830021-5
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000701830021-5
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2007/02/08 : CIA-RDP84B00049R000701830021-5