LATIN AMERICA--WARNING OF IMPENDING DEVELOPMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120038-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 38
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83BOl027R000300120038-4
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
National Intelligence Officers
NFAC-0359-79
22 January 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
National Intelligence Officer for Warning RL
FROM : Acting National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Latin America -- Warning of Impending Developments
1. Action Requested: None; for your information only.
2. Background: The tension has eased in most countries of Latin
America where crises appeared to be developing. Hostilities between
Argentina and Chile were thwarted scant hours before Argentina planned
to occupy islands south of the Beagle Channel, when the Vatican agreed
to mediate the dispute. While military hardliners are bitterly dis-
appointed in Videla's handling of the affair and there is talk of a
coup d'etat, the plotters will not move as long as the Vatican is involved
in resolving the problem, a process that is likely to last for months. In
the interim, President Videla is likely to remove his military critics
from troop command positions or shunt them into retirement. Persistent
rumors of a coup d'etat in Bolivia and a major reshuffling of the cabinet
attest to the fragility of the Padilla Government. In Nicaragua,
President Somoza has withstood pressures to resign and has apparently
quelled the FSLN. President Torrijos of Panama might be tempted to continue
support to the FSLN's efforts to topple Somoza as long as he has the support
of President Carlos Andres Perez of Venezuela. Perez, however, will be out
of office in March 1979, and his successor is unlikely to become involved in
such an adventure. Meanwhile, Somoza is seeking allies in the Governments
of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala to combat "Communist menace".
Somoza appears to have emerged from this ordeal stronger than ever and seems
unimpressed by the US intent to withdraw the US military and economic
missions.
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3. New Developments: Problems affecting the United States which
bear watching are emerging in Jamaica, Colombia, Central America, and
Mexico.
a. Jamaica. Prime Minister Michael Manley's position has eroded
and could get worse. It is increasingly evident that Jamaica will once
again fail to achieve the economic targets set by the IMF in time for
the next review in March. The increased political activism by the
opposition Jamaican Labor Party coupled with the deteriorating
economic situation could provoke an election before the end of Manley's
tenure in 1981. Meanwhile, Edward Seaga, an economist who is Manley's
most serious opponent, is gaining strength.
b. Colombia. The theft of 5,000 weapons from an army garrison
by the 19th of April Movement (M-19) poses the threat of a renewed
rash of terrorism, some of which may well be directed against US
officials or businessmen. Since the quantity of weapons stolen
exceeds the number of terrorists in M-19, the excess weapons may be
peddled to narcotics traffickers in Colombia or to other terrorist
groups in Latin America. The Colombian Government can be expected
to crack down vigorously on the M-19. Despite its good record of
respecting human rights, it may now feel that the threat to government
stability is so grave as to warrant the risk of violating human rights
to control the terrorists.
c. Central America. The present delicate state of the mediation
effort led by the United States is at the point that the Broad Front
(FAO) opposition is beginning to flake apart, while Somoza appears to
be at least as strongly entrenched as ever. Somoza's ability to double
the strength of the National Guard seems to have demoralized the FSLN,
which is limiting its harrassment of the Somoza Government to localized
attacks. A full-scale FSLN assault on the government now appears
unlikely. Meanwhile, other Central American governments are uneasily
watching the threats to Somoza. The Government of El Salvador, already
beset by terrorist problems, believes it will be next if Somoza falls.
d. Mexico. As a direct result of events in Iran, Mexico is
acquiring new clients for its oil -- notably, France, Japan and Israel.
While the US will receive a lower percentage of Mexican oil than
previously anticipated, the actual quantity will be about the same
because of increased production. Diversification of Mexico's oil
exports is likely to make Mexico more independent in its forthcoming
negotiations with the US.
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Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83BOl027R000300120038-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300120038-4
Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300120038-4