MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300110005-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 5, 2007
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: July 25, 1979
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/06IQ .IA, aRDP83B01027R000300110005-1
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
NFAC-3873-79
25 July 1979
N IO/W
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM : Acting National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America
FSLN. We have seen no evidence of long-range planning on which FSLN faction
will control what sector in the future. The cabinet essional, but
effective executive talent on the junta is lacking.
4. After a short-term lull while foreign emergency aid is dis-
tributed, factional infighting among the Sandinistas will begin. Over
the next 60 to 90 days there will be considerable maneuvering for power.
Provincial control of the country is now held by diverse factions of the
advisers from the Venezuelan Directorate of National Intelligence.
commit troops to Nicaragua. The junta might, however, accept securit
it
profile. It is not anticipated that Venezuela, Honduras, or Guatemala will
2. With the overthrow of Anastasio Somoza and the installation
of a junta dominated by the FSLN, Nicaragua is entering a new era. It
is anticipated that the junta will maintain a facade of moderation to
ensure the necessary flow of foreign aid into Nicaragua. While some
retaliatory killings will doubtless take place, the presence of
foreigners in Nicaragua -- the first time Latin Americans have spon-
taneously a involved -- will tend to keep unbridled violence to a
minimum.
3. Initially, aid from Cuba will, take the form of humanitarian
assistance. Cuban security advisers in Nicaragua will keep a low
1. Action Requested: None; for your information only.
Nicaragua:
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dMilE
5. Eventually, the Marxist elements will prevail; but for the
reasons noted above, they will be constrained in the short term. The
appointment of Tomas Borje as Minister of the Interior shows that the
Marxists are already laying the groundwork. 0
Central America:
7. Elsewhere in Central America political tensions will increase,
but it is unlikely that any other governments will be overthrown in this
region during the next two to three months. If any government were to
collapse, it would be that of El Salvador where economic and social
pressures are enormous. We anticipate that there will be increased Cuban
activity in the region as Castro tries to eliminate fractionalism among
terrorist groups in order develop a cohesive opposition force to which
he can channel support. order
Paraguay
8. The political situation in Paraguay bears watching because events
in Nicaragua are likely to have an effect in that country. Stroessner's
power base is similar to that of Somoza, and there are some indications
that Stroessner's opposition sees a parallel. It is unlikely tha ious
instability will occur during the time frame of this memorandum.
Bolivia:
9. If Paz Estenssoro is declared the winner of the recent elections
in Bolivia, it ' ossible that there will be a coup d'etat within the
next 90 days. ir
Mexico
10. In his next meeting with President Carter, President Lopez Portillo
intends to adopt a hard bargaining position. He believes he holds a strong
hand and is becoming impatient with the United States.
Eastern Caribbean:
11. During the period of this assessment, the Eastern Caribbean will
likely be unaffected by Bishop's overthrow of Gairy in Grenada or the
leftist. electoral victory in St. Lucia. II
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 Approved For Release 2007/06/05: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300110005-1
NFAC-3873-79
Distribution:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - D/NFAC
1 - NIO/W
1 - NIO/AF
1 - NIO/CH
1 - NI0/EAP
1 - NIO/CF
1 - NI0/NESA
1 - NIO/NP
1 - NIO/PE
1 - NIO/SS
1 - NI0/USSR-EE
1 - NIO/WE
1 - Senior Review Panel
1 - NSC Coordinator
1 - D/OCR
1 - D/OER
1 - D/OGCR
1 - D/OIA
1 - D/OPA
1 - D/OSI
1 - D/OSR
1 - D/OWI
1 - ER
1 - NFAC Reg
2 - NIO/LA
Approved For Release 2007/06/05: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300110005-1