MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300080038-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 38
• Content Type: MEMO

A, pproi ed For Release 2007/06/04: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300080038-9
SECRET ?
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
NFAC 0672-80
28 January 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM: Robert C. Ames
National Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asia
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia
1. Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan. The possibility of Soviet military
movement into Iran was discussed at the 22 January NESA warning meeting.
Most analysts present felt that the time was not ripe for such a direct
confrontation with the United States since the Soviets must feel that they
will benefit in the long-run from the flow of events in Iran. The Soviet
opportunistic approach currently has a plethora of potential opportunities
to exploit in the region.
2, Egypt-Israel. The beginning of normalization at the end of the month
makes another Baghdad-type Arab summit with additional sanctions against
Egypt (e.g. cessation of Arab-Egypt direct air travel) a possibility. A
resumption of terrorist acts, especially against Egyptian targets, must also
not be discounted. The recent loss of political momentum by the PLO --
having been upstaged by events in Iran and Afghanistan -- makes a resumption
of terrorism by the frustrated moderates a possibility. The unpredictable
Sadat, with no more chunks of Sinai territory to show to his people every
two months, could resort to a new tougher posture toward the Israelis in
the autonomy negotiations.
3. Libyan "Intercept" Attempts Against US Reconnaissance Aircraft.
The most recent MIG-25 "intercept" attempt, in which two MIG-25s approached
to within 40 kms of the US aircraft, was analyzed. Although there was
nothing peculiar about this particular episode and no hostile intent was
indicated, the increased frequency of these tracking/harassment incidents
was noted.
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4. Syria. In addition to the internal security situation which we
have been following at the warning meetings for several months now, the
recent tough, pro-Soviet political line (e.g. on Afghanistan) is of concern.
Assad's lack of allies and a sense of vulnerability seems to be one of the
better explanations for this.
5. Islamic Conference. The rift in the Arab world over Afghanistan
and its importance relative to Camp David and the Arab-Israeli issue will
probably temper the actions taken at the 25 January foreign ministers
conference in Islamabad. Efforts to unify the Afghan exile organizations
are likely. The additional step of creating an Afghan government in exile --
should that be taken -- would create additional incentives for Soviet
border incursions.
6. Lebanon. Sniping and shelling incidents are again increasing.
The risk of miscalculation on all sides (e.g. the Christians decidin to
push. the Syrians again or the Israelis preempting a perceived threat is
increased by the nervous post-Afghanistan mood in the region and by the
presence of Iranian "volunteers" training in southern Lebanon.
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Robert C. Ames
Approved For Release 2007/06/04: CIA-RDP83BOl027R000300080038-9
 Approved For Release 2007/06/04: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300080038-9
0 SECRET ?
NFAC 0672-80
28 January 1980
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia
A/NIO/NESA (28 Jan. 80)
Distribution:
Orig - Addee
1 - DDCI
1 - ER
1 - DD/NFA
2 - NIO/NESA
-Each NI0
1 - Each Office Director
1 - Senior Review Panel
1 - NSC Coordinator
1 - OPA/NESA
1 - OPA/USSR
1 - OER/D/NE
1 - OER/D/SA
1 - NFAC Reg
1 - DDO/NE
1 - DDO/EPDS
1 - NITO/Near East
1 - State/INR/RNA
1 - DIO/Near East
1 - DIA/DN2E1
1 - NSA/G-6
1 - ACSI DAMI FII
1 - ONI/Estimates Br
1 - AF/INER
1 - HQ USMC Code INTP
1 - OSI/LSD
Approved For Release 2007/06/04: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300080038-9