MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300040054-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 24, 2007
• Sequence Number: 54
• Publication Date: January 26, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/04/24 :,t'IA-RPPR3RO1027R000300040054-5
? SECRET
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
1. Cuba
The arrival of eight more MIG-23s in Cuba has heightened concerns
that MIG aircraft may soon appear in Nicaragua. Most analysts expect that
MIG-21 or MIG-17 aircraft would be flown to Nicaragua, providing us with
little or no warning. Sandino Airport in Managua is the only Nicaraguan
airfield currently prepared to accept MIGs; Puerto Cabezas and Montelimar
airfields still lack defensive revetments and 'et fuel storage capabilities,
although fuel trucks could be used. 25 fl
analysts as yet are unable to cite evidence suggesting a direct relations I
s
o
training exercises in a e anuary nu
be related to anticipated increased guerrilla activity in Central America, b
1
epor ing t o Cuba p &_.s to }{1
ted as unusual The exercises cou
n
harassment. Guerrilla military capabilities are improving, however, as
evidenced by greater coordination among the various factions, more joint
2. El Salvador
Since mid-December, the level of insurgent activity has risen
significantly, particularly with regard to raids on towns and economic sabotage.
Additional insurgent activity is anticipated this week to mark the 50th
anniversary of the communist-led peasant uprising in 1932. The guerrilla
leaders apparently have concluded that elections will be held in March and will
increase their concerted campaign to disrupt them and discourage foreign
participation. Most analysts believe that the guerrillas are not planning a
major offensive (such as that attempted last January), but that they will
continue to -focus their efforts mostly on increased terrorism, sabotage, and
?
DDI-682-82
26 January 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM : National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Latin America
II
Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83B0l027R000300040054-5
 Approved For Release 2007/04/24r -ice 83BO1027R000300040054-5
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SECREi1
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operations, reports of unprecedented amounts of arms entering the country, and
0
the appearance of two more clandestine radio
are.,up (280 in December 1981 compared
Salvadoran military casualties with an average of 244 earlier in the year) and expectedthothemain hi gh. The
government probably will have serious problems coping
violence and may not be able to guarantee security in some rural areas during
the March election. 25X1
3. Guatemala
in Guatemala, suggesting
Guerrilla activity also has increased sharply
that the insurgency there could be entering laa tnew, mo reractivistdphase. Ofrms
most concern is a report that beginning in
started arriving for the guerrillas from Costa Rica. Cuba and Nicaragua appear
to have increased their support. Analysts that, to
insu
h
d
e
in
oran
e
prolonged nature of the Salva
Guatemala simultaneously with t
support an even more active insurgency
effort in El Salvador.
Rumors of a military coup before the i ria--1,11
but most analysts believe an attempt is notlikely aslong as theofr sidential
frontrunner remains in the lead. To our knowledge,
basically committed to elections and probably would risk disco d ityrinntheirging
g up
ranks and tarnishing their interna l image by
25X1
the cancellation of the election.
4. Nica=a
Nicaragua continues its full support for subversion in El Salvador
and Guatemala. Analysts believe that Managua
butllapkvthelevidence,eparticularly
ve it Salvador and Guatemala ?1
movement of arms
SIGINT, to prove t conclusively. Reports csharply tinirecentaweeksression of
the Atlantic Coast Indian communities increased
Anti-Sandinista raids into Nicaragua may resulcat attacks
on anti-Sandinista camps in HoHums ad
Aselong as they lack air superior
insurgent groups operating in to avoid engaging the Honduras militar
ill tr
y
Nicaraguan forces probably w
5. PLO Assistance
PLO and radical Arab assistance to Latin American revolutionaries197s'
including military training and small arms--has groAwforapidl since early
analysis
reflecting (in part) Soviet and Cuban prehiss
notes that the Soviet Union encouraged this involvement othe m Soviet-controlled lowering n he
ast
Cuban profile somewhat. The analyst po
the Palestinian group most likely toe1982d ifor ts terroriswit on
PLO activity_is likely to intensify in going Guatemalan and Honduran
Central America--with more aid probably gg F-] 25X1
insurgent groups than was the case last year.
25X1
Cons antine =r. Menges
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000300040054-5
? SECRE 0
DDI-682-82
Distribution:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - C/NIC
1 - NIO/W
1 - DDI
1 - DDO
1 - NI0/AF
1 - NI0/EA
1 - NI0/GPF
1 - NI0/NESA
1 - NIO/AL
1 - NI0/USSR-EE
1 - NI0/WE
1 - NIO/SP
1 - NI0/E
1 - Senior Review Panel
1 - SA/NPI
1 - SA/CI
1 - D/OCO
1 - D/OCR
1 - D/SOYA
1 - D/ALA
1 - D/OIA
1 - D/NESA
1 - D/OEA
1 - D/OGI
1 - D/OSWR
1 - D/NPIC
1 - C/CA/IAD
1 - D/OHC/ICS
1 - ER
1 - NFAC Reg
3 - NIO/LA
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Approved For Release 2007/04/24: CIA-R DP83B01027R000300D40054-5