WARNING REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300040046-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 23, 2007
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: February 18, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
DDI #1383-82/1
18 February 1982
THROUGH National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM . L. Gray Cowan
National Intelligence Officer for Africa
SUBJECT : Warning Report: Sub-Saharan Africa
1. Action Re uested: None; the attached report is for your
information. 25X1
2. Background: Community representatives and specialists met on
16 February 1982 with the NIO/AF as chairman. The attached report has not
been coordinated with the other participants, but is being circulated to
them. If they feel their views have been misinterpreted, or y have
significant additional concerns, I'll report f Ether to you. 25X1
Attachment
DDI #1383-82
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DDI #1383-82
18 February 1982
ANGOLA-SOUTHERN AFRICA
Analysts do not discount recent rumors of a possible coup in Angola.
However, they are generally agreed it is more probable that we may see in the
coming weeks a reshuffling of government leaders that will leave individuals
who are dependent on the Soviets more firmly in positions of power, with a
consequent weakening of Dos Santos' position. This would indicate clearly the
importance Moscow attaches to its place in Angola as a key locale from which
to take advantage of opportunities to impede a Namibia settlement in ways that
would discredit the US. Recent reports (as yet unconfirmed) that a high-
ranking Soviet official will shortly visit Mozambique highlight Soviet
attempts to pressure the Frontline states into support of Soviet efforts.
MOZAMBIQUE
The recent visit of a high level Cuban delegation to Maputo indicates
that pressure is being applied to Machel to accept more Communist military
aid, in view of the threat posed by the insurgent NRM supported by South
Africa. Analysts agreed that Machel's position is being threatened by the
strains within the ruling group produced by the insurgency. The danger of
we are unable to analyze with any l
confidence the relations of the top leaders with Machel or to determine which
of them might be working with the Soviets and Cubans to replace him. There
was clear agreement that the collection effort on Mozambique needs to be
intensified.
The degree of Libyan involvement is still unclear, but we do know that
Libyan planes have been flying into Accra with unknown cargo. Analysts agreed
that the continued inability of the Rawlings regime to get its house in order
raises the potential for further instability and increases the openings for
Libyan exploitation of the situation. The internal situation is clearly
*This memorandum is one of a series produced monthly by NIO/AF. Its purpose
is to review possible developments in the short-term future that would be
damaging to US interests. Obviously, many of these developments will not
occur in the time frame or in the manner suggested, or will not occur at all.
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deteriorating and, should disorders break out, there could be a danger to US
citizens in Ghana.
LIBERIA
Failure to find stop-gap financial support over the next three to four
weeks may require further austerity measures resulting in increased internal
instability.
While Nimeiri's internal political position appears to have become firmer
over the past three weeks, there are continuing reports of Libyan efforts to
destroy his regime. Concern was expressed that current Ethiopian military
operations in Eritrea could spill over into Sudan in the form of hot pursuit
raids.
SECRET
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