DRAFT MINUTES OF THE 30 JUNE 1975 IRAC MEETING
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Cobv No. of 41
IRAC -M-11
30 June 1975
INTELLIGENCE RESOURCES ADVISORY COMMITTEE
MEMORANDUM FOR THE INTELLIGENCE RESOURCES ADVISORY
COMMITTEE
SUBJECT Draft Minutes of the 30 June 1975
IRAC Meeting
1. The attached draft minutes of the 30 June Intelligence Resources
Advisory Committee meeting are submitted herewith for IRAC considera-
tion.
IRAC ACTION REQUESTED
2- TRA hers are requested to advise the Secretariat
comments on t e attached minutes.
by close of business 16 July 1975 of their approval or
MORI/CDF
N RO review(s) completed.
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Classified by
Exempt from
declassification schedule o 2
exemption category 58(1), ,(3)
Automatically declassified on
Date Impossible to Determine
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INTELLIGENCE RESOURCES ADVISORY COMMITTEE
Minutes of
Eleventh Meeting
Intelligence Resources Advisory Committee
DCI Conference Room (7D64)
Central Intelligence Agency, at 1400 hours, 30 June 1975
Director of Central Intelligence
Mr. W. E. Colby
Presiding
Mr. William McAfee, acting for Director of Intelligence and Research
Department of State
Dr. Albert C. Hall, Assistant Secretary of Defense (Intelligence),
Department of Defense
Lieutenant General Vernon A. Walters, USA, Deputy Director of Central
Intelligence
Mr. Donald G. Ogilvie, Associate Director for National Security and
International Affairs, Office of Management and Budget
IRAC -M -11
30 June 1975.
OBSERVERS PRESENT
Mr. Richard Ober, Director for Intelligence Coordination, National
Security Council Staff
Lieutenant General Eugene F. Tighe, Jr. , USAF, acting for Director,
Defense Intelligence Agency
Lieutenant' General Lew Allen, Jr., USAF, Director, National Security
Agency
TT
Classified by
Exempt from
declassification schedule of E~,.-QQ 11652
exemption category 5B(1)}(y),(3)
Automatically declassified on
Data Impossible to Determine
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IRAC-M-11
30 June 1975
1. Status of Congressional Budget
System
a. At the invitation of the Chairman, Mr. Ogilvie presented a briefing
on the subject (briefing aids are enclosed as Attachment I). In the course of
his briefing he commented that the new procedures outlined for Congress repre-
sented a major step forward. He pointed out that the scheduling deadlines
applied to the Executive Branch as well as to Congress. During the discussion
which followed it was noted that the Congressional budget review process may
address intelligence matters in the DoD budget submission. Dr. Hall agreed
to keep a close watch on this and advise the DCI and IRAC.
2. Preliminary FY 1977 Fiscal Guidance --
Economic Outlook
a. Speaking from the outline provided by the viewgraphs (Attachment II),
Mr. Ogilvie addressed the intelligence budget trends. He said that he would
be happy to provide more detailed information on how the figures were developed.
During his presentation he proposed revisions to the IRAC schedule (Item 4,
below) which would have the DCI's tentative recommendations on major resource
issues submitted in October rather than December. He said that last year,
when these recommendations were submitted in December, it had been most
difficult to schedule adequately for Presidential review. He thought it would be
much more orderly if major program issues could be surfaced in October; the
remaining portion of the budget recommendations could follow thereafter.
b. Mr. Colby observed that this would create a problem in scheduling
the EXCOMs which, as a consequence of Mr. Ogilvie's recommendation, would
have to be moved up.
c. Dr. Hall commented that Mr. Ogilvie's recommendation required
careful consideration noting particularly that it would be difficult to separate
the major issues from the total budget submission. oted that
several studies are underway which will drive major decisions and that they
will not be completed by October. Mr. Colby asked that the members consider
Mr. Ogilvie's proposal within the next few days and advise him of their views
by Monday (7 July).
d. In response to a question b Mr. Ogilvie said that
Intelligence Community fiscal guidance would be issued in July in a form
similar to that used in past years.
-4-
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IRAC -M-11
30 June 1975
3. Resource Issues
a. Mr. Colby commented on several issues which the IRAC probably
will wish to consider:
(2) Mr. Colby suggested that another area of IRAC interest may be
the anti-satellite satellite studies and the overall question of vulnerability of
both Soviet and U. S. satellites. Studies on U. S. satellites involve those with
an intelligence mission as well as other DoD satellites. The potential resource
implications could be large.
(3) Mr. Colby noted that USIB recently reaffirmed its needs for l15X1
25X1 I land had re-
quested State Department to reinstitute t1iis service. TO. - fee indicated
that the USIB views had been transmitted to hi h levels within State but that
25X1 the decision to have ad not been changed.
Mr. Colby said he was raising this subject a eared to be
r of administrative funding which involved J5X1
25X1 1but other shared administrative support costs invo ving the mem e
agencies. He said that the Intelligence Community Staff would be looking into
this question and what to do about it.
b. Mr. Ogilvie asked why, if the funds were allocated for this purpose
in State's budget submitted to the President, they were not being so utilized?
Mr. McAfee observed that this was a valid question, but he did not have the
answer. He suggested that State be queried. Mr. Ogilvie said that he pre -
ferred that OMB not serve as an arbiter for this issue. Dr. Hall advised
against transferring funding responsibility to the Department of Defense.
Mr. Colby said he would communicate with appropriate officials in the State
Department to make a determination of how this problem should be resolved. ati
*The DCI forwarded a letter on this subject on 30 June 1975 to Lawrence S.
Ea lebur er De uty Under Secretary for Management.
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IRAC-M-11
30 June 1975
I Isaid that there was a significant principle involved in this problem
which eserved a direct answer and an early solution. He also suggested
that if a solution is not forthcoming be necessary to examine the
feasibility of other agencies funding
c. Dr. Hall said he had a few comments on some major issues which
affect the FY-77 budget, noting that the cost figures were stated in approximate
terms:
(1) Manpower - Dr. Hall said that planning called for the intelligence
manpower strength within DoD to be decreased by 1, 780 in FY-77 with a
budget impact of This is significantly smaller than the
FY-1976 reduction.
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I
IRAC -M-11
30 June 1975
d. Dr. Hall said that all these issues must be studied carefully
before decisions are made. Mr. Colby agreed, noting also that the
resolution and search studies for overhead photography could have con-
siderable impact on available funds.
e. With regard to funding, Mr. Colby said he had a chart which
compared th'e gross national product and the NFIP budget over the next
several years. He observed that as the gross national product increased
it seemed appropriate for the intelligence amount to increase with it.
4. Discussion of Resource Management
Objectives (and Milestones) for the
Intelligence Community for FY 1976
(USIB/IRAC-D-22. 1/39, 17 June 1975,
Memorandum for USIB /IRAC Principals
distributed through restricted channels)
a. Mr. Colby said that the resource management objectives had been
circulated to the IRAC, noting that the substantive objectives already had
been considered by the USIB. He invited comments. Mr. Ogilvie noted
his earlier suggestion (Item 2, above) on the October submission for the
NFIP in relation to the schedule under Objective No. Z. He said he wished
to encourage the effort reflected for the August Milestone regarding
national - tactical relationships under Objective No. 3. He believed this
effort should receive a lot of attention. Mr. Colby agreed it was an impor-
tant and complex subject which required a great deal of work, noting that
the effort should also address tactical support to national requirements.
Dr. Hall said that DIA had done some work in this area by decentralizing
maintenance of some data base information to field commanders.
b. Mr. Colby commented on the Milestones for the KIQs saying that
the performance evaluation begins on 1 July. He said that he hoped it would
go well because of the importance of the function. He said that while the
effort would not answer specific resource questions, it should provide guide-
lines on areas which should be examined in greater detail. The September -
October Milestones under Objective No. 3 addressed the annual report on
the intelligence accomplishments to be provided to the President. He asked
the cooperation of the members in developing this report as he felt it was
a most useful mechanism for both the President and the intelligence community.
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IRAC -M-11
30 June 1975
c. The IRAC concurred in the Objectives subject to additional
comments by the members by 7 July of the schedule under Objective No. 2.
5. IRAC Tasks
a. Mr. Colby noted that the FY-76 intelligence budget had been
subject to intense congressional review which he characterized as a
harbinger for future budgets. He observed that if IRAC could do a better
job, e. g. developing studies which provide funding options, the intelligence
community could do a better job for the Congressional budget review
process. Using USIB as an example, he said that it might be useful to
consider establishing some standing committees of IRAC. He noted the
success. of the IRAC Intelligence Research and Development Council.
Mr. Plummer said that while the IR&DC had been useful in surfacing
major problems, e.g., space shuttle, he suggested that the resource
considerations for these problems should also be addressed by the Council.
Mr. Ogilvie observed this was a good example of what the IRAC Working
Group should do. Dr. Hall said that while a review of the space shuttle by
the IRAC Working Group might be a useful process, he suggested that those
involved discuss the background in some detail with Mr. Colby at a later
date. Mr. Colby agreed. Mr. Ogilvie said that his comment was intended
to support the value of greater use of the IRAC Working Group rather than
the issue of the space shuttle per se. With regard to the IR&DC, Mr. Colby
commented that it would be useful to have it review the FY-77 intelligence
R&D budget and submit its recommendations to IRAC.
b. Addressing the concept of standing committees, Mr. Colby pro-
posed that it might be useful to establish one to review the national - tactical
interface question. Another problem which might be considered either by
a standing committee or an ad hoc group, could be the Southeast Asian
draw down issue. He said that there had been some congressional interest
in this subject.
c. Mr. Colby proposed than in addition to the five areas addressed
by the IR&DC last year (IRAC-D-76. 2/2, 22 July 1974) he thought it would
be useful if the Council looked ahead two years on some other major
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I :A
9 July 1975.
IRAC -M-11
30 June 1975
problems. He encouraged continuation of the study of new analytic
methodology and techniques. Mr. Colby also noted that there had been
problems with regard to security compartmentation and that there was
room for improvement in this area.
d. Summing up, Mr. Colby invited comments from the IRAC
members with regard to their views on IRAC, particularly the question
of forming standing committees and ad hoc groups to treat specific
subjects, and ideas as to which subjects should be addressed. Mr. Ogilvie
supported Mr. Colby's views indicating that a careful examination should
be made to see whether IRAC was playing a useful role in advising the DCI.
He suggested that perhaps it would be useful for IRAC to review specific
resource issues, some of which could be examined by ad hoc groups in
support of the IRAC.
e. Dr. Hall suggested that the establishment of standing committees
be carefully considered since, once established, they tend to perpetuate
themselves. Mr. Colby agreed but added that there appeared to be a good
case for establishing a standing committee to look at the many important
issues involving national - tactical interface.
f. Mr. Colby suggested that the members provide their views on
this overall subject to General Wilson, D/DCI/IC by close of business
Adjournment: 1520 hours
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IRAC-M-11
30 June 1975
SECRETARY'S NOTE
Approval of Minutes
3 December 1974 Meeting
(IRAC -M-10 )
On 23 December 1974 all IRAC members telephonically approved the
subject minutes. The Acting CIA Member concurred subject to changes.
A revised page 5 incorporating these changes was circulated for substitution
in all copies of the reference minutes.
D
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LNABLE CONGRESS TO:
-- IMPROVE CONGRESSIONAL CONTROL OVER BUDGETARY OUTLAY AND
RECEIPT TOTALS
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OBJECTIVES OF CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET ACT
DETER M I NE'ANNUAL SPENDING TARGETS IN LIGHT OF ECONOMIC
COND IT I ONS'& NEEDS
ALLOCATE AVA I L '4J LE FUNDS AMONG FEDERAL PROGRAMS ON BASIS.
NATIONAL PRIORITIES
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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET ACT
? ESTABLISHED ANEW CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET PROCESS-. ?
? TO BE AIDED BY NEW HOUSE AND SENATE BUDGET COMMITTEES
? WITH THE HELP OF A CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
? FOR A F I SCAL YEAR TO RUN FROM OCTOBER I TO.SEPTEMBER 30,
EFFECTIVE OCTOBER I. 1976
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ca
W
Q
Z
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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET TIMETABLE
ON OR S^FORE s
NOVE BER 10
15th DAY AFTER CONGRESS
MEETS
MARCH 15
APRIL 1
APRIL 15
MAY 15
MAY 15
7th DAY AFTER LABOR DAY
SEPTEMBER 15
SEPTEMBER 25
OCTOBER I
F SIDENT SUBMITS CURRENT SERVICES
BUDGET.
P C ID ZT SUBMITS HIS BUDGET. ,
CC121ITTEES SUESIT REPORTS TO
BUDGET C 14ITTEES.
CONGREOSIONNAL BUDGET OFFICE SUBMITS
REPOflT O EUDGET CO ,4I'I'?TEES.
BUDGET CON ?IITTEES REPORT FIRST
COIF CURRENT RESOLUTION ON THE
BUDGET TO THEIR HOUSES.
CO iITaEES REPORT BILLS AUTHOR-
IZING NEW BUDGET AUTHORITY.
CONGRESS ADOPTS FIRST CONCURRENT
r-Z-SOLUTION ON THE BUDGET.
CONGRESS COMPLETES ACTION ON BILLS
PROVIDING BUDGET AUTHORITY AND
SPENDING AUTHORITY.
COG .SS COMPLETES ACT IONS ON
SECOND REQUIRED CONCURP NT
RESOLUTION ON THE BUDGET.
CONGRESS COMPLETES ACTION RECON-
CILIATION P :CCESS IMPLEMET"TING
SECOND CONCURRENT RESOLUTION
FISCAL YEAR BEGINS.
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SENATE BUDGET COMMITTEE
Democrats
Ed.mund S. Muskie, Maine (Chairman)
Warren G. Magnuson, Wash.
Frank. E. Moss, Utah
Walter F. Mondale, Minn.
Ernest F. Hollings, S. C.
Alan Cranston, Calif.
Lawton Chiles, Florida
James Abourezk, S. D.
Joseph R. Biden Jr., Del.
Sam Nunn, Ga.
Republicans
Henry Bellraon, Okla.
Robert Dole, Kan.
J. Glenn Beall Jr., Md.
James L. Buckley, N. Y.
James A. McClure, Idaho
Pete V. Domenici, No. M.
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Moon M21132- ,- TTM
Dc!ocratt
Brock Fula. , Wash. (Chairman)
Thcrnmsa L. Asshlcy, Ohio
O'?az Burlamon, T xaz
Sr_^ Gitt-c , Florida
Lutlcr C. Derrick Jr., S. Co
F.cLcrt V. Giz r o, . Conn.
Elirabsth ~oltaan, - U. Y.
Phil no Lcndru , Ga. .
ncbort L. L-c 7-;-ctt, Calif.
Pat?y T. :'bind:, Enw ii
Parrcn J.; F.itcholl, gd.
J za G. O'Mara, Rich.
lhcmas P. O'Neill Jr., )Lasso.
Harold Runnols, N. N. .
Neal Smith, Iowa
Louis Stokes, Ohio
Jim Wright, Texas
Re lican:s
Jam T. Broyhill,. N. C.
Elford 2. Cadarbarg, Rich.'
Del Cla more, Calif.
E3mr"bor B. Conablc Jr., N. Y.
Jarro? F. UYaatings, N. Y.
Delbert Latta, Ohio
Harm T. Schncebeli, Pa.
Garner E. Shriver, Kan.
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HOUSE BUDGET COMMITTEE
STAFF STRUCTURE
WApT/.~I~C:lAL
(? AMMLYS?S)
I? CZAL
"SISTA74'1"
PV LIC I3110
WTICB
Guy=
MTIIrTA1 ? DIS .
nu= P .IG:L'?I Z
?Vwoi7ncl'
(4 # ALY )
PHY31C .L
SPECIAL
V=1*
Approximate total staff, 'including clerical: 60
"VIVrATT D1? C Om
LCC,-:: 2IC =:=313
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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Office of
General Counsel
Alfred Fitt
j
ASSISTANT DIRECTOR
FOR
ENERGY, ENVIRON-
MENT, AND
NATURAL RESOURCES
Douglas Costle
DIRECTOR
Alice Rivlin
Office of
Information
DEPUTY DIRECTOR
Robert Levine
ASSISTANT. DIRECTOR
FOR
BUDGET ANALYSIS
James Blum
ASSISTANT DIRECTOR.
FOR
FISCAL POLICY
Frank de Leeuw
ASSISTANT DIRECTOR
FOR
TAX POLICY
Charles Davenport
ASSISTANT DIRECTOR
FOR
HUMAN RESOURCES
AND COMMUNITY
DEVELOPMENT
William Fischer
ASSISTANT DIRECTOR
FOR
NATIONAL SECURITY
AND INTERNATIONAL.
AFFAIRS
John Koehler
ASSISTANT DIRECTOR
FOR
MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS
Howard Messner
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FISCAL YEAR 1976 BUDJETS, BY FUNCTION
(In billions of dollars)
President President Concurrent__
(February 4) (A ril 4) Resolution
Budget - Budget Budget
authority Outlays authority Outlays authority outlays
National defense ................ 107.7 94.0 .107.7 93.9 100.7 90.7
International affairs........... 12.6 6.3 12.6 6.3 4.9 4.9
General science, space, and
technology ..................... 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.6
Natural resources, environment,
and energy ..................... 12.2 10.0 12.2. 10.2 13.8 11.6
Agriculture..................... 4.3 1.8 4.3 1.8 4.3 1.8
Commerce and transportation..... 6.6 13.7 6.6 14.7 11.3 17.5
Community and regional
development .................... 5.2 '5.9 5.2 6.0 11.0- 8.7
Education, manpower, and.
social services., ....... ....:.. 13.7 14.6 13.7 16.6 19.0 19.9
Health...... ........ ............ 31.0 28.1 31.0 28.4 33.1 ?30.7
Income security.... ............. 135.3. 118.7 137.5 120.9 140.9 125.3
veterans benefits and services.. 16.2 15.6 16.8 16.2 18.0 17.5
Law enforcement and justice..... 3.2 . 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4
General government., ....... ..... 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
-1~evenue sharing and general
purpose fiscal assistance...... 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.2
Interest ....... ...... 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.4 35.0 35.0
Allowances ...................... 8.3 8.1 8.3 8.1 .1.4 .1.1
Undistributed offsetting
receipts ....................... -20.2 -20.2 -20.2 -20.2 -16.2 -16.2
Receipts ........................?
Deficit ..........................
25X1
385.8 349.4 388.6 355.6 395.8 367.0
297.5 295.6 298.2
-51.9 -60.0 -68.8
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- DETERMINED BY D? ECTOR, O E
-- BASED UPON :
- STAFF PRESENTATIONS OF PROGRAMMATIC TRENDS, DEVELOPMENTS, AND ISSUES
?- GENERAL ECONOMIC FACTORS
- PURPOSE:
PROVIDE MORE DEFINITIVE GUIDANCE FOR BUDGET YEAR THAN ALLOWANCE
r ??TT E-'
- PROVIDE A FIRM "CAP" FOR OCTOBER B DGET SUBMISSION
- GUIDE PROGRAM 'tv1ANAGE S "i N TEE STRUCTURING OF THEIR BUDGETS
.?PRIORITY AS
ALLOW IN si.. IDENTIFICATION OF 1,0K= O: aITi S ITEMS - Si3Ei?_R'Ij..
"OVER-CEILING" 1TEMS
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=d -snm T(~,~.Ty
TI3 .`cR 1}.i.',,'. r,.i Z '"~AXECTION.E
( aY , years; dollar aacunts in billions)
Assumed for Purposes of
Item 1977 197S i 9 719 080
Gross nati^ al :product:
Current dollars: $1,891 $2,107 $2,335 $2,586
ATE=a:1t ... .................... 1 .......?. ~
Percent change .. . ..................... . 12.6 11.4 10.3 SCt.y
Constant (1958) dollars: $897 $956 Y? ,Oi3 MOM
1nount ..................
Percent change.................. ........ 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
ifco`.es (current dollars) : $1;515 $1,689 $' ,874 $2:0:
Personal income.. .........................
oes and salaries........ ........... $978 $1,092 S1,211 $1.344
W< - $173 $193 S^14. ::331
iCor rate pro .its .........................
a,'ric`.s rc ? t change):
GNP de'iacor : 4.6 4.1 4.0
Year over year ......................... 5.7
Fourth quarter over fourth quarter..... 5.2 4.3 4.3 4.0
CPI: 5.3 4.~+ t>.rJ 4.0
Y over year .........................
4.2 4.0 4.0
T _mber over December ................. 4.8
i2'::,'' iE.:'-'m-,?'_ rates (percent):
5 '~~i 5.1
Tonai. ................................. 7.2 v.
7.2 ?7 5.
1 4 4.0 3.2
I "Ure.
l
2 .................................. 5.G0 5.50
, F ral ii:^y. rc.i:.n, t;v=c er (pert:E`.nt) ......... 6.75 5.30
=
_\aLam- :>t. _ ....y . t
Asast rate, J-...`d>j J y .. +.L ur bills
5.1 5.0 5.0
.~ 5.1
3 . . ... . . . .. .. . .. ... .
3 F ti0 s using a 6.5% rate of real growth in GNL' for
;sec.
on e?_ ~ o_a
insure of covered employment; includes
.iL= workers receiv , u aaCed bena itS.
zULF
Average ra,:e of
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THE FISCAL OUTLOOK, 1977-1980
(in billions of dollars)
1977
1978
1979
1980
Outlays under current prog ans .............
388.4
417.4
443.0
467.3
5
15
9.9
14.3
15.1
.
Outlays under proposed programs............
Total projected-outlays ...............
398.4
431.6
458.1
482.8
Receipts under current law .................
364.0
416.4
466.4
517.2
4
12
l
+0.4
-4.2
-9.4
.
-
s............
Effects of energy tax proposa
Total projected receipts ..............
364.4
412.2
457.0
504.8
Budget margin or deficit (-) ...............
-34.0
-19.4
-1.1
x-22.0
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