EASTERN EUROPE: THE NEW BREED

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CIA-RDP79R00967A000200010005-7
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April 23, 1970
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MEMO
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Approved Fease 2007/01/17 : CIA-RDP79R0094;V00200010005-7 Secret OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES MEMORANDUM Eastern Europe: The New Breed Secret 23 April 1970 Approved For Release 2007/01/17 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved F44,Release 20070CNINt-RDP79R00967W00200010005-7 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES 23 April 1970 MEMORANDUM SUBJECT: Eastern Europe: The New Breed* PRINCIPAL OBSERVATIONS In contrast to their old-guard predecessors, who had close ties to Moscow, the rising generation of East European leaders, now in their forties, appears to be more nationalist-minded. Though still communists, many of these men have become disil- lusioned with Soviet orthodoxy, tend to interpret the scripture largely according to the needs of their own societies, and seem anxious to reduce or eliminate Soviet hegemony. The urgent need of the East European economies for modernization has in- creased the awareness of the younger leaders, especially those who are economic specialists, that major departures from the Soviet economic model are desirable, perhaps necessary. These leaders may also be encouraged by the Romanian example to try to improve their own political positions by appealing to nation- alist sentiments, a process which could proceed only at Soviet expense. Not all of these younger leaders fit the new, national mold, of course; the inclinations of some are conservative, even pro-Soviet, and the views of others remain wholly obscure. Still, as the new leaders come into top positions of power they are likely to present the Soviets with problems of a different degree, and possibly even of a different kind, than those posed by their elders. This memorandum was prepared by the Office of National Estimates. It was discussed with representatives of the Office of Current Intelligence, Office of Economic Research, and the Central Reference Service, who concur in its main judgments. Approved For Release 2007/01/17 : CIA-RDP79R00967A SECRET 000200010005-7 Approved FoNgetbase 2007/01/Wettfir79R009WW200010005-7 I. A GENERATIONAL CHANGE 1. Much has happened since the time after World War II when the East European communist parties were dominated exclu- sively by Comintern veterans, wartime partisan leaders, or Soviet-trained communists who attained power as camp followers of the Red Army. Time has had its impact: now the likes of Rakosi, Dimitrov, and Ana Pauker are gone for good; some of the remaining old-timers -- e.g,, Gomulka (65), and Tito (77) -- are visibly slowing down and the Soviets perhaps wish that Ulbricht (77) would, too. In certain of the East European countries, the remnants of the old guard have sought to keep "safe" men -- experienced and undistinguished functionaries usually in their fifties -7 in many key party and government positions. But the general tendency has been for a new gener- ation of leaders -- men in their forties -- to move gradually up the ladder and to find their way- into increasingly re- sponsible jobs. 2. The pace of this process has varied considerably from country to country-. It has advanced particularly far in Yugoslavia, where Tito in the past year or so has placed well- qualified young activists in key party and government positions - 2 Approved For Release 2007/TVO1/4,-FDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved FolwaRelease 2007/01/11EORKIV79R0096ZA6030200010005-7 and has forced most members of the old guard to move on. It is also well along in Romania, where Ceausescu, himself only 52, has put many younger men in leading positions. In Hungary and Bulgaria, members of the new generation are now in second ranking positions and will rise sooner or later. In Poland and in East Germany, the older generation still holds most of the key posts, but several promising young people have attained Politburo status and are becoming increasingly influential. 3. It is of course very difficult to generalize about the views of so many men in so many diverse circumstances. To begin with, we know so little about them. Their private conversations and their public remarks are helpful but are not necessarily reliable guides to their present inner con- victions or to their future political behavior. Further, what may move a man in Poland may be quite different from what is likely to move his opposite number in, say, Romania. And, finally, we are dealing here with leaders who must func- tion in political systems which, more than most, encourage circumspection and dissembling. 4. Despite all this some generalizations about these men are possible. We do have bits and pieces of biographic 3 Approved For Release 2007/01/W6Iffir79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved FOlbilialease 2007MEOMXRDP79R0096141e10200010005-7 information; we do know something about the political environ- ment in each of these countries; and we are aware that all these leaders must respond, one way or the other, to the larger forces operating within and between these societies. Indeed, it is possible for us to draw a general picture of backgrounds and attitudes which suggests quite strongly that many of the younger officials in Eastern Europpare different from their predecessors -- and different in several important ways. 5. The contrast in background and training is especially striking. The old-guard communist leaders of Eastern Europe had usually played an active part in the underground Comintern conspiracy, received extensive training in the USSR, and collabo- rated with the Soviets both during wartime partisan struggles and the subsequent seizure of power in their own countries. The new, rising generation of leaders has no equivalent old- school-tie relationship with the Soviet party, or, for that matter, among themselves. Most of them have had little or no conspiratorial underground experience. Their formative train- ing and experience have come instead from their activities and relationships as party functionaries -- and sometimes as pro- fessional specialists with only rather nominal party affili- ation -- in their native lands. They are not held close to - 4 - Approved For Release 2007/gyrRrt-RDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved FoinkRaease 2007/04MCM-413P79R0096Z4W10200010005-7 Moscow or to each other by the bonds of shared wartime or revolutionary exploits; instead, the focus of their effort (and perhaps pride of accomplishment) has been on the develop- ment of their own countries. Thus they have developed a sense of national identity, different from both the Soviet-oriented internationalism of their communist elders and the chauvinism of the pre-war regimes. 6. To be sure, most of these younger men apparently think of themselves as good communists. They approve of an authdritarian approach to party and government affairs, they work for the preservation of communist party rule, and they understand that some sort of special relationship with the Soviets is likely to endure. But their definition of communism is no longer the orthodox Soviet definition, and their test of what is a good communist does not necessarily correspond to the Soviet test. Their questions and concerns about the various facets of the communist system are focused increas- ingly on "How well does it fit the actual conditions here in my country?" and "How well does it work?" In short, they tend to be more pragmatic and less doctrinaire than their prede- cessors and no more interested in and responsive to Moscow's desires than they judge they have to be. In contrast with - 5 - Approved For Release 2007/084CIWIRDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved Folailigjease 2007/SE6MAIRDP79R009WAS00200010005-7 their elders, their attitudes have been conditioned by the convolutions of Soviet attitudes and policies in the period since World War II, by nationalism, and by the imperatives of economics. TT. CONDITIONING FACTOR.' A. Nationalism. and Soviet Policy 7, Though not then in high positions, the younger men well remember the Stalinist era, the brutality and militancy of Soviet overlordship and the distinctly second-class status accorded their own states. They also remember the pause following Stalin's death and the ragged efforts -- such as the New Economic Course -- to revise the means and the con- sequences of Soviet control. Khrushchev's subsequent de- Stalinization campaign offered further opportunities for departures from Soviet orthodoxy and for the expression of individual national interests; it also shook the loyalties and beliefs of many of those party members, young and old, who had somehow retained their faith in the USSR and its communist system. 8. The Soviet invasion of Hungary no doubt further dispelled any lingering illusions about the USSR's real. role - 6 - Approved For Release 2007/VECRIATRDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved Fo?ittlease 2007/OPECIIIMbP79R009f4M100200010005-7 in Eastern Europe, though it certainly did not destroy the hope of many (perhaps including even Kadar) that in time Khrushchev would permit each state a meaningful degree of sovereignty. More recently, Khrushchev's removal in 1964, the general tightening up within the USSR by his successors and, of course, the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 have surely dimmed hopes in Eastern Europe for any early development of a benign Soviet outlook. But these same developments have also pr bably further discredited the USSR and orthodox communism in the eyes of many of the younger leaders and perhaps reinforced their determination to free their countries from arbitrary Soviet authority. 9 Nationalism obviously remains a potentially powerful force throughout Eastern Europe. There was a time -- even after Yugoslavia's break with the USSR in 1948 -- when this was thought not to be so, when both the Soviets and many Western observers believed that expressions of nationalism were no longer possible in these societies. Events in Poland and Hungary in 1956 and in Czechoslovakia in 1968 have of course proved otherwise. So too have developments over the past several years in Romania. In fact, the Romanian case may prove to be the most interesting and ultimately most im- portant: the Romanian party, responding essentially to its - 7 - Approved For Release 2007/019FORPETP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved Fowslitdease 2007/5HORCHAUDP79R00964W600200010005-7 own needs, has developed a program which rests on the propo- sition that nationalism pays, i.e., that the nationalist (and anti-Soviet) sentiments of the people can be used to bolster the power and prestige of the regime. 10. This is significant for two reasons. First, the added strength which accrues to the regime as a consequence of its more solid popular base can be used -- and in the Romanian instance has been used -- to improve the bargaining position of the regime vis-a-vis the Soviets. (The reverse happened in Poland in 1957 when Gomulka's power, which rested in large measure at the time on nationalist-inspired popular support, was turned back against the people, inter alia to the benefit of the Soviet Union.) Second, and equally im- portant, the Romanian experience, like the Yugoslav before it, demonstrates that a party which hangs together and moves on its own to reduce or eliminate its dependence on the CPSU can survive Soviet pressures to conform. This, obviously, is not the case when a party becomes badly fragmented while seek- ing to do the same sort of thing in response to internal pres- sures which have grown mainly outside the party, as in both Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968). 8 Approved For Release 2007/greReIRDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For Release 2007/01/SED79R00967,421;l00200010005-7 11. The lesson that the East European party leaders -- young and old alike -- learned from the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia was along the lines implied above: the USSR will intervene militarily if it appears to Moscow that a client party is on the verge of collapse (Hungary) or on the point of relinquishing effective monopoly control (Czechoslovakia). But -- especially among the younger leaders -- this lesson by itself may in time prove quite insufficient for Soviet purposes; it does not disallow modest and gradual reform with nationalist undertones, as now practiced in Hungary, nor does it prohibit the formation of regimes dominated by politicians who might seek broad sources of political strength from within their own societies. Theemergence of regimes of this character would encourage or even force (as in Romania) the adoption of policies which pursue genuine national (and nationalist) interests. This does not mean that a party leader in these circumstances would find himself a captive of mere public whim; it might mean, however, that it would be easier and politically more sensible for him to take account of politi- cal currents at home rather than political current's in Moscow. B. The Economic Imperative 12. An aspect of Soviet authority most resented by the younger leaders is Moscow's insistence that each state within - 9 - Approved For Release 2007/01gEciken3P79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For4lease 2007/018FelitiN3P79R009674800200010005-7 its sphere must conform to an economic model which -- as is now becoming increasingly obvious -- does not even serve the USSR well. The damage done the East European economies by the imposition of Stalinist norms in the late 1940's and early 1950's is well known. The subsequent failure of most of these economies to improve very much through partial reforms and piecemeal measures -- a process still underway -- is also clearly evident. Accordingly, pressures are growing for some fundamental restructuring. Ota Sik, the prominent Czech economist who was anxious to reshape the Czechoslovak economy along lines somewhat akin to Yugoslavia's "market socialism", has of course been repudiated by the present regime in Prague. But Sik's ideas, and those of others like him, retain a sort of underground currency throughout Eastern Europe, a fact at least partially testified to by continuing Soviet nervousness about all such beliefs. 13. The fact is that many knowledgeable East Europeans can now see clear advantages in some form of economic decentrali- zation, whether entirely Sikian or not. At the same time, they can see an available bank of Western know-how and technology far richer than that existing -- or likely soon to exist -- in the USSR. The urge to improve economic results is not confined - 10 - Approved For Release 2007/011pMepP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For lease 2007/01WItLE4DP79R009674900200010005-7 to economists. It also seems to be felt deeply by many who fall within the category of party technocrat -- that class of party professionals whose qualifications and career orientation have led to specialization in economic planning or adminis- tration. Sometimes men in this group have acquired some engi- neering background; sometimes they have obtained academic degrees. Most often, however, their economic expertise has been acquired from practical experience, rather than from academic training. 14. Many party technocrats are involved in the culti- vation of economic ties with other countries and in the acquisition of modern technological processes from the West. The quest for economic efficiency usually leads them to be- come involved as well in experimentation with economic reform. Moreover, the resultant consciousness of the gap between Commu- nist pretensions and actual performance sometimes has an eroding effect on their political views. Sometimes the policies they initiate primarily to introduce change into the economy also entail parallel political innovation. This tendency has long been characteristic of the Yugoslav economic reform; it was present in Czechoslovakia in 1968, and at the present time is apparent in Hungary.* See ONE Memorandum, "The Hungarian Experiment: Kadar's Not-so-Middle Way". 5 January 1970. - 11- Approved For Release 2007/0n7cRITDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For Release 2007/01SlE0ti1EIlbP79R00967A1100200010005-7 15. The technocrat most responsible for the economic reform program in Hungary is Central Committee Secretary and Politburo member Rezso Nyers (46), the party's leading economic expert. Nyers has indicated that he is well aware of the political implications of real economic reform. Indeed, he has said so. 16. Neither in East Germany nor in Poland is there any evidence of movement toward political liberalization. This is certainly not surprising in view of the repressive, neo-Stalinist nature of the Ulbricht regime and the conservatism and fear of experimentation of the Gomulka regime. But technocrats in these countries are aware of developments elsewhere, and it is incon- ceivable that they could be altogether immune to the pressures for real reform -- including political reform -- which have produced movement elsewhere. The removal of restraints in either country would surely bring reformist ideas to the sur- face, either quickly -- as in Czechoslovakia where restraints vanished so completely and rapidly -- or gradually and cau- tiously, as is now the case in Hungary. 17. The chief party technocrats in East Germany, Guenter Mittag (43), and Werner Jarowinsky (42), have both been deeply involved in the limited economic reform program, the "New Economic System", initiated by the regime in 1963. Mittag, - 12 - Approved For Release 200710AVIEfftDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For lease 2007/5FOREATRDP79R00967,41;100200010005-7 the yougest Politburo member and the party's leading economic expert, is known to be realistic -- as opposed to doctrinaire -- in economic matters, despite his unquestioned allegiance to the party and to Ulbricht. Jarowinsky, an equally well educated and qualified economist whose specialty is trade and supply matters, has advocated the introduction of modern technological methods into the East German economy. In Poland, the two chief party technocrats, Jaszczuk and Gieruk (in their mid-fifties), have helped to develop Poland's own version of economic reform. Jaszczuk, the principal economic spokesman for the regime, has shown by his speeches that he is decidedly pragmatic in his approach to economic policy. Gierek, party boss and industrial czar in Silesia, combines a somewhat dogmatic approach to politics and ideology with a down-to-earth approach to economic questions. He has not hesitated to rely on the technical intelligentsia to achieve economic efficiency. 18. One of Romania's principal party technocrats is Manea Manescu (53), Chairman of the Economic Council, who as a qualified economist has held many economic posts in the regime. He has also had responsibility in the fields of science and culture, where he was at one time described as a key leader of Romania's cultural thaw. A different type, - 13- Approved For Release 200719FtTRUTRDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For 14lease 2007/01S1EUREMOP79R0096749.00200010005-7 but an example of the able young economic and technical specialists Ceausescu has brought into the party and govern- ment leadership is his friend, Cornel Burtica (38), Minister of Foreign Trade, who came from the same part of the country (Oltenie) as Ceausescu, and whose prior experience was pri- marily in foreign affairs. In his present post Burtica is actively helping to develop Romania's economic ties with the West, at the same time as he promotes greater independence for "Socialist" Romania. C. Counteracting Forces 19. The force of nationalism and the imperatives of economics do not of course operate within the various East European states unopposed. Even in Yugoslavia there are elements which dislike the tacitly anti-Soviet stance of the dominant group and which resist the reformist bent of the majority in the party. And, elsewhere, there are still many officials -- including younger officials -- who respect ortho- doxy, are persuaded by doctrine, and in general fear departures from past, Soviet-oriented practices. 20. Those who tend to be most cautious in these respects are the party functionaries whose jobs concern party organization - Approved For For Release 2007/0STCREL1DP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For golease 2007/01 SE etaliMP79R0096744100200010005-7 and control -- e.g., supervision of cadres, security matters, ideological/propaganda actiVities. It seems that those who feel they might someday have to act to keep the lid on are more inclined than their party colleagues to hold to the old and tested ways, 21. One example in Hungary of this more conservative type of party functionary is Bela Biszku (48), who has risen to the number two position in the party after Kadar. In Bulgaria, equivalent types are Stanko Todorov (49), who administers the party for party leader Zhivkov, and Venelin Kotsev ()-i-3), party specialist in ideological and cultural affairs. In Poland the chief comers in the party include Stanislaw Kociolek (39), an ideological expert, and two young functionaries of proven ability, Jan Szydlak (44) and Jozef Tejchma (42). A typical example of the tough young East German functionary is Gerhard Grtieneberg (48), an agricultural specialist of pronounced hard-line tendencies. 22. Circumstances are of course different in Romania. The regime as a whole is authoritarian, though it is not necessarily bound by ideology and is certainly not sym- pathetic to the USSR. Some younger Romanian leaders in the -15 - Approved For Release 2007/01/8EMLF1pP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For lielatlease 2007/01WO9EKI3P79R009674000200010005-7 party apparatus seem to be brothers under the skin of their counterparts elsewhere: e.g., Virgil Trofin (43), cadre chief and number two in the party, and Gheorghe Pana (4o), member of the party Secretariat and Presidium and a close associate of Ceausescu. III. CHARACTER OF THE INDIVIDUAL 23. While their backgrounds and the conditioning factors noted above throw some light on the tendencies of the younger leaders as a group, their tendencies as individuals are more difficult to assess. As careerists, of course, many of them are bound to be strongly influenced by opportunism. But the behavior of each is a product of many factors, including soci- ological and environmental background, career experience, relationships between these men and their colleagues, and the position of their country vis-a-vis the outside world, especially its neighbors. 24. By no means least important is the character and personality of the individual leader himself. Unfortunately, information available to us on these matters is not very helpful. The sort of information which frequently is avail- able in the files, largely sociological data and the career record of the leader himself, provides only a limited insight -16- Approved For Release 2007/019ECREFIDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For liglease 2007/061/CaMP79R009674000200010005-7 into probable political behavior. Both Alexander Dubcek and Imre Nagy for example, had records as reliable party func- tionaries before they played their particular roles in history. 25. Dubcek was educated in the USSR before the war, and in the midst of his career in the Slovak party in the mid-fifties was sent to Msocow for three years' training at the Higher Party School. His pro-Soviet credentials were impressive, as was his record as a Slovak party careeriSt. By the mid-sixties there was little in his record to suggest his subsequent behavior. The Hungarian national deviationist, Imre Nagy, spent about half his life in the Soviet Union. A trusted "Muscovite" communist, he returned to Hungary after the war, hanging on to the coattails of the Red Army. He had a long career as a trusted party functionary (including prewar underground experi- ence in Hungary), and his background suggested he would be staunchly loyal to the party and to Msocow. Indeed, he first became Prime Minister in Hungary in July 1953 at Soviet behest. 26. Certain factors in the careers of Dubcek and Nagy later proved to have an important influence on their subse- quent political attitudes, but it would have been difficult to conclude so at the time. Thus, when Dubcek attended - 17- Approved For Release 2007/013FGRETDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For fhptease 2007/0fifiCtiliEfibP79R00967,4400200010005-7 Higher Party School in Moscow he was deeply influenced by Khrushchev's de-Stalinization campaign, which affected his later desire to redress Stalinist injustices at home. Imre Nagy's long experience in the USSR only strengthened his deep conviction that socialism should be developed differently in Hungary. IV. SOME PROBLEMS AND IMPLICATIONS 27. If what we have said about their general tendencies is correct, then the younger communist leaders who will be gradually rising to the top in Eastern Europe during the next few years will present the Soviets with problems of a different degree and perhaps even of a different kind than those posed by their predecessors. Their background and training, which is clearly different from that of their elders, together with the various forces tending to influence them toward more prag- matic, more independent behavior, make it clear that the problem of preserving order and discipline in the future -- a period in which Western economic and technological influence in Eastern Europe will steadily increase -- will be increasingly diffi- cult for Moscow. At a minimum, the tendencies of the new leaders will add to the already considerable difficulties of - Approved For Release 2007/0McMDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For lease 2007/0MCREIDP79R00967A8900200010005-7 maintaining the status quo and manipulating events to Soviet advantage in Eastern Europe. All factors, of course, are not working in this same direction. The tendencies of these men are far from uniform, and the impact of the younger leaders on their countries as they ascend to power is likely to be uneven. 28. One reason for this is the considerable variation in local circumstances and national traditions, which will affect both the courses adopted by individual leaders and the manner in which the local populace responds. Thus, a severe political crisis in, say, Poland would be unlikely to develop in the same way as the 1968 crisis in Czechoslovakia. The Czechs, though pressing very hard during the "Prague Spring" for basic changes in the system, did so in a moderate, non- violent way, in conformity with national traditions. The Poles, on the other hand, have a heritage of militant nation- alism in which futile but heroic acts of resistance have played a significant role, as often as not against Russian oppressors. The chances are that a crisis in Poland (and probably in Hungary too) would escalate much more quickly to dramatic proportions. Facets of national character and tradition will, Approved For Release 2007/0MtAnTDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For lease 2007/0WCREIDP79R0096Thilb0200010005-7 in fact, help to mold events and to shape the attitudes of the younger leaders in all of the East European states. 29. The impact of the new leaders 'will also be affected importantly by the Soviet attitude and behavior toward Eastern Europe -- in particular how the Soviets manage their relations with these new leaders. This is a complicated matter, as re- vealed on the one hand by the Soviet decision to invade Czechoslovakia, and on the other by continued tolerance of maverick Romania. The course of Soviet foreign policy will also have an important bearing on Soviet attitudes in Eastern Europe, especially the development of relations with the US, with Western Europe, and with China. And in coming years Soviet behavior will perhaps be further complicated by yet other questions, such as whether and to what extent a liberal trend will be allowed to develop in the Soviet Union itself, or whether changes in the East European leaderships will be paralleled by changes in the Soviet hierarchy. 30. Still, certain assumptions can be made about Soviet behavior -- e.g., that it will continue to tread a wavering median line between determination to preserve the communist order in Eastern Europe and, on the other hand reluctance - 20 - Approved For Release 200710c34iEmRDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For lease 2007/6FiCkita4DP79R0096111100200010005-7 to intervene with force unless a clear and present danger to communist control should develop. On this assumption, we would expect the impact of the new leaders in the various East European countries to be felt, in the near term, more or less along the following lines: 31. GDR. In East Germany, second-echelon leaders are not yet in positions from which they are likely to achieve primacy during the next few years. In the event of Ulbricht's death or incapacitation, power seems likely to be divided among somewhat older party and government functionaries -- e.g,, Honecker and Staph -- although it will be shared increasingly by younger, well-trained, pragmatic functionaries, such as Guenter Mittag, who are valued for their ability and expertise. Though the Soviets probably will take care to see that the adherents of Ulbricht's ideological views will remain in the ascendancy, the present regime-encouraged trend toward greater pragmatism and use of Western technology in the economy seems likely to continue. 32. Poland. Younger, second-echelon leaders in Poland are still only on the periphery of power and are thus unlikely to achieve top positions quickly even in the event of a change - 21 - Approved For Release 2007/08pIEWIRDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For lease 2007/651ECRDP79R009614000200010005-7 at the top. Their influence, however, is likely to be felt increasingly in top party councils, and if a factional struggle should arise following Gomulka's demise, one or another of their number might well end up at the top. Moreover, if one of them proved to have real qualities as a political leader, he might feel tempted to play (a la Moczar) on the long-suppressed national feelings of the Poles in order to strengthen his own position. 33. Romania. AS a result of Ceausescu's efforts, the Romanian regime probably will continue to be dominated largely by younger leaders who seem disposed to continue the present nationalist, albeit internally conservative policy, provided, of course, that the Soviets do not intervene with force. 34. Bulgaria. Though Zhivkov also has brought some younger leaders into the top echelons of the party, including the present party cadre chief, Todorov, a younger leader probably will continue Bulgaria's pro-Soviet orientation, which in Zhivkov's case has been fairly obsequious, and probably will be equally reluctant to countenance liberal domestic policies. One very good reason for such reluctance, of course, is the presence and potentially contagious influence of liberalism in neighboring Yugoslavia. - 22 - Approved For Release 2007/SIEER(nRDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved ForRaplease 2007/03EGItar-111DP79R009674A00200010005-7 35. Hungaa. If, for some reason or other, Kadar should be displaced during the next few years, one of the younger leaders he has groomed for the leadership, such as Biszku or Komocsin, might well succeed him. If so, it is conceivable that a conservative type such as Biszku might seek to reverse the economic and political reforms. How- ever, the economic reform program (the New Economic Mechanism") seems fairly solidly established by now and, whatever his in- clination, Kadar's successor may find it extremely difficult to reverse it. Indeed, he might well find it politically expedient to continue the present liberal program, or even to step up the pace. Moreover, a new leader might not appreciate the dangers of increasing the tempo or be able to control it as well as Kadar does, in which case the Soviets might well be presented at some point with another criOis. 36. Yugoslavia. Tito has made great efforts to establish the basis for an orderly transition on his departure from power. But when this occurs leadership will pass into collective hands, and it will be surprising if after his departure factionalism and regional antagonisms do not produce some turmoil in the party and country. Nevertheless, there seems to be enough 23 Approved For Release 2007/0TinTDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For Jai:please 2007/6WIWATRDP79R0096h20300200010005-7 support for his variant model of communism, so that an attempt to revert to the Soviet model would be unlikely to succeed. Indeed, the younger Yugoslav leaders are more likely to con- tinue the present trend in the direction of a Western-type political and economic system. 37 Czechoslovakia. Since the Soviet intervention in August 1968, the most promising younger liberal party leaders (e.g., Mlynar, Cisar, Slavik, Spacek, Simon) gradually have been weeded out of positions of influence in the regime. What remains of the younger element of leaders is for th most part a combination of conservatives, ultra-conservatives, and oppor- tunists. Should Husak be displaced at some point, any younger leader who would be likely to succeed him is unlikely to be able to alter the present repressive, conservative trend, for quite some time, or to permit any resurgence of liberalism, at least so long as the Soviets remain in the country. - 24? Approved For Release 2007gIFURRIARDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For tease 200716W1REATRDP79R009674400200010005-7 ANNEX The attached annex lists selected promising younger leaders from each of the East European countries whose backgrounds were examined in the preparation of this paper. It is intended to supplement the paper by providing some insight into the backgrounds, training, and career ex- perience of these men, - Al - Approved For Release 2007/grelaiirDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For Rilease 2007/01MORAEW)P79R00967421000200010005-7 ANNEX Age Education Training Specialty Post Poland Stanislaw Kociolek 36 Univ (Dr) Party Fnctry Politburo Jan Szydlak 43 Party Sch Ideolog Aff Party Sec't Boleslaw Jaszczuk 56 Technical Engineering Economics Party Sec't Politburo Josef Tejchma 42 Party Sch Engineering Agr/Youth Party Sec't Politburo Stefan Olszowski 38 Univ Ideolog Aff Party Sec't Party Sch Mieczyslaw Moczar 56 Elementary Partisan Sec Matters Party Sec't Edward Gierek 56 Univ (Eng) Engineering Economics Politburo Hungary Bela Biszku 48 Secondary Party Acad Party Fnctry Party Sec't '46 Party Sch Politburo Rezso Nyers Elementary Technical Economics Party Sec't Politburo Zoltan Komocsin 46 Elementary Higher Party Intrabloc Party Sec't Sch (Moscow) Relations Politburo Karoly Erdelyi 42 University Higher Party Foreign Aff Minister School Peter Varkonyi 39 University Ideolog Aff Dep Minister Karoly Nemeth 47 Party Sch Party Fnctry (Card Member) Politburo Gyorgy Aczel 52 University Economics Idolog Aff Party Sec't Cultural Aff East Germany Guenter Mittag 43 Univ (Dr) Economics Politburo Party Sec't Werner Jarowinsky 42 Univ (Dr) Economics Party Sec't Gerhard Grueneberg 48 Elementary Party Fnctry Politburo Agriculture Party Sec't Guenther Kleiber 38 University Elec Engrg Data Proces- sing Politburo (Cand Member) Werner Lamberz 40 Party Sch Party Fnctry Party Sec't Ideolog Aff - A2 - Approved For Release 2007/01AEGRVIDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved For gietease 2007/0Skrak1DP79R009674,0002000100054NEx Age Education Training Specialty Post Romania Virgil Tro fin 44 Elementary Party Fnctry Presidium Youth Party Sect Agriculture Paul Niculescu- 46 Security Teacher Ideolog Aff Presidium Mizil Party Sch (Marxism- Cultural Aff Party Sec't Leninism) Cornel Burt ica 38 Technical Elec Engrg Economics Minister Foreign Aff Ilie Verdet 4)4 Technical Party Acad Party. Fnctry Presidium Party Sch 1st Dep Prem Dimitriu Popescu 41 Party Enctry Party. Sect Ideolog Aff Cultural Aff Gheorghe Pana 4o Party Functry Presidium Party Sect IOn Iliescu 43 Technical Engineering Youth Minister (USSR) Bulgaria Luchezar Avramov 48 University Elec Engrg Party. Fnctry Minister Economics Politburo. (Cand Member) Stanko Todorov 49 University Party Fnctry Politburo Party Sect Venelin Kotsev 44 Higher Ideolog Aff Party Sec't Party Sch Cultural Aff Krustyu Trichkov 43 Elementary Higher Party. Erie try Politburo Party Sch (Cand Member) Tano Tsolov 51 Secondary Party Fnctry Politburo Economics Pep Premier Albania Ramiz Alia 44 Secondary Ideolog Aff Party Sect Cultural Aff Politburo Nesti Nase 47 Secondary Foreign Aff Mil-Aster Nexhmije Hoxha 48 Secondary Party Fnctry Govt Post (Enver Hoxha's wife) Rita Marko 50 Elementary Higher Party Fnctry Politburo Party Sch -A3 - Approved For Release 2007/401RDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Approved ForRolease 2007/6EORJ11JRDP79R00967.40002000100054Ex Yugoslavia Age Education Training Specialty. Post Krste Crvenkovski 48 University Party- Fnctry Exec Bureau Cultural. Aff Marko Nikezic 48 University Foreign. Aff Central Comm Mirko Tepavac 47 Secondary. Party Fnctry Minister Party Sch Foreign Aff Kiro Gligorov 52 University. Economics Exec Bureau Law Dimce Beiovski 46 University Foreign Aff LCY Law Presidium Miroslav Pecujlic 40 Univ --(Dr) Teacher Party Fnctry Exec Bureau Budislav Soskic 44 University ideolog Aff Exec Bureau Party Fnctry Cultural Aff Mika Tripalo 43 University Party. Fnctry Exec Bureau. Law Stane Dolanc 44 University Teacher Party Fn,try Exec Bureau Law Marxism- Leninism Mitja Ribicic 50 University Security Party. Frotry Prime Law Matters Minister Czechoslovakia Zdenek Mlynar 39 University. Legal Aff Purged after Law Aug '68 (Liberal.) Vaclav Slavik 49 University Party Fnctry ideolog Aff Purged after Aug '68 (Libea.al) Josef Spacek 42 Secondary Party Sch Party Fnctry Purged after Party Sch Aug '68 (Liberal) Cestmir Cisar 50 Univ (Dr) Ideolog Aff Purged after Cultural Aff Aug '68 (Liberal) Bohumil Simon 49 Party Fnctry Purged after Aug '68 (Liberal) Lubomir Strougal 45 Univ (Dr) Party Fnctry Premier Antonin Kapek 47 Technical Engineering Party. Fnctry Presidium Economics Jan Piller 47 Technical Party Sch Party Fnctry Presidium Economics Drahomir Kolder 44 Elementary Party. Sch Party Fru try Govt Post Economics Alois Indra 49 Party Fnry Party Sect - A14- Approved For Release 2007NECRTARDP79R00967A000200010005-7 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/01/17 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000200010005-7 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2007/01/17 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000200010005-7