YOUR REMARKS TO NATIONAL STRATEGIC MATERIALS AND MINERALS PROGRAM ADVISORY COMMITTEE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001500070008-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 27, 2007
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: May 25, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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0 SECRET is
25. May 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM: V Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Your Remarks to National Strategic Materials
and Minerals Program Advisory Committee
4xec+lfve Registry
84 - Z, o 5-6 //
I like your remarks to the National Strategic Materials and Minerals
Program Advisory Committee. I think the portion on the risk of becoming
vulnerable is particularly valuable and should be looked at in greater
depth in a broad document and also in the document about opportunities
abroad for US know-how and technology to be applied to demonstrate our
ability to deliver economic benefits in contrast to the Soviets' ability
to deliver only know-how and military equipment, as well as to improve
our own markets to help Third World countries to service their heavy debt.
I understand from Herb that this latter subject has been intended as a
future estimate and I would like to see how that is being formulated again
sometime early in June.
cc: VC/NIC w/DDI's Remarks
SECRET
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DCI
EXEC
REG
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22 May 1984
NOTE TO: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Director, Public Affairs Office
I have been a_s,ked to Land in for the DCI on a t th ~
peuingr"m Mea t' g o -1-Ater r Secret Clar-k ;Nationil Strategi
atc
Ti~~e~ ria1s nd Minerals 'Program Advisory Committee. have been
asked to-speak on an unclassified basis to '-a -s-
group of
business executives and officials for about 10-15 minutes.
1-.-to use the_-attached remarks which were prepared
substantially by OGI. If you have any suggestions or comments
please provide them to me first thing Thursday morning as I will
be leaving town that afternoon.
Robert. . Gates
Deputy Directort or Intelligence
Attachment:
As Stated
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is ?
Remarks to the National Strategic Materials and Minerals
Program Advisory Committee
25 May 1984
It is a pleasure to be present at the first meeting of this
Presidential Advisory Committee. We at the Agency have learned
over the years that private sector expertise has much to offer
us. In looking down the membership list of this committee, I am
struck by the breadth and depth of experience. That is indeed
fortunate because the task before you is a challenging one.
We at the Agency are concerned as you over dangers posed by
US dependence on foreign minerals and materials. Since World War
II the mineral position of the United States has deteriorated.
Rising nationalism in the Third World, accompanied by
nationalization, expropriation, increased taxation and
constraints on the degree of foreign ownership, has limited
control of foreign minerals by US companies. Moreover, as you
know better than I, sharply higher energy costs since 1973 and a
trend in the LDCs toward greater downstream processing have led
to a decline in the US mineral processing industry.
For certain minerals, the United States is highly dependent
on imports. Take 8 minerals -- chrome, cobalt, columbium,
manganese, the platinum group, tantalum, titanium and tungsten.
Each has important military and essential civilian industrial
application. The key suppliers are considered by many to be at
least potentially unreliable, and the United States is highly
import dependent on them.
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Western Europe and Japan face even more serious potential
problems than the United States in this arena. Only in the case
of tungsten do they have any sizeable resources. On the other
hand, unlike the West, the USSR is virtually self-sufficient in
strategic minerals.
There is reason for concern for supply reliability.
-- South Africa and the USSR control about 90% of the
world's platinum production and nearly all known
reserves.
cobalt production.
The potential for serious supply disruption arising from these
concentrations have led the developed countries to seek new
mineral deposits elsewhere but they have not had much success.
With supplies. of strategic metals relatively abundant since
World War II, western vulnerability has not yet been
tested.Several possibilities exist for strategic mineral supply
disruptions initiated by others with the intent to harm the West
and particularly the United States. Some of these include covert
political-military actions by the USSR or surrogates to disrupt
mineral supplies in Africa, politically motivated embargoes by
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several LDC suppliers, or political instability in key producing
countries leading to prolonged supply disruption. There are of
course other scenarios one can imagine.
One of our greatest concerns in the Third World is the
possibility of a sudden political upheaval, one result of which
is a prolonged cutoff of several critical minerals. We dedicate
substantial intelligence assets to providing early warning of
such upheavals. As we track Soviet troublemaking in Africa, the
Middle East, the Caribbean, and Latin America -- where Moscow
pry.,, a~.-;&
seeksnpoli(tical and military gains at our expense -- I can assure
you that we are attentive to the potential impact of their
actions on energy, minerals and other resource supplies.
But you are aware of these concerns. I am here because your
charter says your "...committee shall: ... identify existing or
potential deficiencies in the availability of strategic and
critical minerals and materials; the technological capability to
process them; ...and develop recommendations to remedy such
factors".
Drawing on your charter, I want to direct your attention to
the fact that the United States is running a risk of becoming
vulnerable in an entirely new area -- the materials area: in my
view a more immediate risk than a resource war fomented by the
USSR. The concept of strategic materials is changing. The rapid
change and diffusion of technology is redefining the meaning of
strategic- dependence. Looking out to the years ahead, I believe
four areas already merit special attention:
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fiber reinforced composites,
-- structural ceramics,
-- new semiconductor materials and
-- electro-optic materials such as fiber optics and
sensors.
Many applications of these advanced materials are found in the
transportation and information sectors -- areas of military
concern to the United States.
In transportation, for example:
-- Uniquely configured ultra-thin wings made of composites
have already proven capable of greatly increasing in-
flight maneuverability.
-- Strong, light weight, and fracture resistant fiber
reinforced plastics, have potential applications in
helicopter rotors, aircraft wings, and jet engines.
-- Ceramics offer as many possibilities. Engine parts,
made of ceramics can be operated at high temperatures,
.improving thermodynamic efficiency, horsepower, and fuel
consumption. Some experts anticipate a 30 percent
increase in fuel efficiency and a doubling in vehicle
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range, especially important in cruise missile and tank
applications.
In civil and military information applications,
-- Researchers are looking to advanced materials such as
gallium arsenide as current silicon-based semiconductors
approach theoretical performance limits.
-- Optical fibers made of silicon glass are outcompeting
copper in communications applications because they are
capable of carrying at least an order of magnitude more
messages.
-- Electro-optical sensors hold great promise in a wide
variety of applications, ranging from target-homing
antitank projectiles to intelligent robots.
Bio-technology also offers interesting promise.
-- Bio-technology could reduce dependence on petroleum as
the feed stock for organic compounds such as plastics.
-- Bio-technology may also aid in future oil recovery by
lowering the viscosity of residual oil and producing
carbon bioxide to repressurize wells. Some estimate
that these techniques can be applied to 500,000 US wells
now producing less than 10 barrels per day.
5
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My concern is that as production of these materials
increases, in part through foreign government support, foreign
competitors may build enough capacity to discourage US firms from
moving into these areas. And if this happens, the relevant
production technology for military applications may never be
established domestically without expensive Defense Department
programs.
This is increasingly important because of a growing change
in the civilian/military relationship. More and more, the flow
of technology is from civilian to military application.
-- For some advanced materials, large civilian markets can
attract substantially more R&D investment than the
military can support.
-- Civilian performance requirements in many cases equal or
exceed those of the military. Jet engines in commercial
aircraft, for example, are expected to last longer than
those used by the military.
materials and manufacturing processes are developed and applied
more rapidly abroad, the United States may find itself dependent
on foreign sources for materials or technologies of military
concern. Indeed, some dependencies are already developing:
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-- The Japanese control about 70 percent of the world
market in ceramic packages for microelectronic chips.
-- US firms developing ceramic-based engines have found
that Japan and Australia are the only source of high-
quality, reasonably priced ceramic parts.
In addition to this issue, the emergence of strong foreign
capabilities in advanced materials complicates US efforts to
control the flow of technology to the Soviet bloc. COCOM
enforcement becomes increasingly difficult as the number of
possible sources of these technologies increases and you can be
sure that the Soviets will aggressively seek to acquire new
materials, technologies, and know-how from the West.
Looking further down the road we can envision that as the
role of technology expands, even the concept of strategic
stockpiles may have to be reassessed. While physical stores of
various strategic minerals and materials will always be
important, one must consider that information, processes, and
know-how may also have great strategic importance in the years
ahead. We need to ask ourselves how we can best guarantee that
the United States has ready access to the production and
materials technologies of the future on which advanced military
systems will depend. Under your charter, these appear to be
legitimate concerns for this Committee. I commend them to your
priority attention.
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