SOVIET IN AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001500040055-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 4, 2008
• Sequence Number: 55
• Publication Date: January 17, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/04/04: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01500040055-1
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Approved For Release 2008/04/04: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01500040055-1
DATE;.
 Approved For Release 2008/04/04: CIA-RDP88B00443R001500040055-1
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for'Intelligence_
FROM: - =
SUBJECT-
. _
Director of Central Intelligence
Soviets-in Afghanistan
A few days ago I asked you about-information someone could give
me regarding how the Soviets have reactivated some mines in Afghanistan
from'which they have received a great deal of revenue, enough it was
cost-of invasion I don't recall. the source...
said to-dover the
Journal deals with a su sec , apparently based on information gathered
his item from today's Wall Street
Attachment:
WSJ article, dtd 17 Jan 84,
"Afghan Resources Flowing
to USSR Despite the War;
Hungary Seeks Dollars"
William J. Casey
Approved For Release 2008/04/04: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01500040055-1
by the Institute of Strategic Trade, a think tank located in Washington.
 WALL STREET JOURNAL
Approved For Release 2008/04/04: CIA-RDP88B00443RO01500040055-1
Afghan Resources Flowing to U.S.S.R.
Despite the War; Hungary Seeks Dollars.
By. AMITY SHLAES
:'StaffRepvrteraJTtte WALL STa r70UXPAL
Being bogged down for four years in a
military campaign against Afghanistan's
Moslem tribesmen hasn't stopped the So-
vit Union fro exploiting and importing
m
Afghanistan's natural-resources-.gas, cop-
per-.and, reportedly, uranium.
'
The extent of this _ exploitation isn
t
known, for, certain. The Afghan rebels, in-
cials of the -Soviet- I' areign
backed . govern-
tnent's-Ministry of. Insight -
Mines, say the Sovi-
ets credit the value of the resource imports
against Afghanistan's large debt to.`Mos-
cow. Even so. sources agree that the value
of the Afghan exports don't come close to
repaying Moscow.for. the cost to it of.prop=
ping up the communist government in Ka-
bul. The State Department estimates that.
cost to be $12 billion since the Soviets in
vaded Afghanistan in December 1979..
Natural gas, Afghanistan's largest ex-
port, is piped from two largt, -fields in
northern Afghanistan--to Soviet Central
Asia. Radio Kabul, the government radio
station, reported recently that 84 billion cu
bic feet of gas was exported to the Soviet
Union last year. But - according to the
Washington-based Institute of Strategic
Trade, the Soviets have pumped as much
as four.times that.amount of Afghan gas
annually in recent years.
No one outside the Soviet-Union knows
for sure, perhaps not even the Afghan re-
gime, because the meters that measure the.
gas flow are on the Soviet side of the bor-
der. The Soviet Union developed Afghani- .
Stan's natural gas fields in the late 1960s,
,and it has been the principal customer.
The rebel tribesmen have blown up part
or all of the pipeline at least three and per-
,.hips as many as seven times since the in-
vasion, accordinto the Center for Afghan-
3 Studies, affiliated with the University
,of Nebraska.
"What keeps the Soviet Union so inter-
:ested in (Afghanistan's) gas is that they
,;--Asian Soviet republics," says Thomas
the -gas, he says, serves to replenish gas
More recently, .the Soviets have
launched a copper mining and smelter
project near Kabul, according to the cen-
ter. If the project is completed in the next
.several- years it could give -Afghanistan' -
about 2% of world production, John F.
Shroder of the center said in a report.
Some predictions put Afghanistan's?copper
ore reserves at 3.5 million metric tons.
And according to a former member of
the Afghan Ministry of Mines who defected,
recently to Pakistan, the Soviets have be-
gun mining .uranium at newly discovered
fieldsnear Kabul.
Hungary is-the-Soviet bloc's `most suc-
cessful exporter of farm products.-and. it.
appears to be seeking recognition of that
fact from Moscow:
American economists who monitor.:-So-
viet -bloc. affairs read -that interpretation-
into a recent article on Hungary's agricul
-tural achievements in -the Budapest news.
paper Nepszava -(People's- Voice), The
newspaper noted that Hungarian farms in-
creased production 42% between 1970 and
1981, one and a half times better than the
next best East bloc agricultural exporter,
Bulgaria.. The article.said that even such
relatively -high growth was "inadequate"
and that more should be done-to increase -
exports of farm goods.
The article is part of a Hungariancam-
paign to get the Soviet Union. to-renew an
8-year-old trade agreement under which
Moscow pays U.S. dollars to Hungary for
agricultural shipments above a certain
level. In turn, the Hungarians pay dollars I
for Soviet- petroleum above a certain,
Hungary earned $719 million from this
arrangement in 1982, according to North-
western University economist Michael
Marrese, who studied Hungarian govern-
inent statistics. Without this hard-currency
windfall, the Hungarians would have faced
an overall dollar trade deficit of about $204
million, Mr. Marrese said.
The Hungarians are particularly eager
to renew the Soviet agreement, which ex-
pires next year, because of their tenuous
credit position with Western banks.
But the Soviets aren't sure. Faced with
slowing economic growth and lower world
market prices for farm goods, they aren't
interested in continuing such high subsi-
dies to Hungary, according to Mr: Mar-
rese.
?.
The good news for Poles is that their
government has bowed to. public pressure
-and-trimmed -food-price increases that
..,were scheduled for the new year. But the
.bad news is .that some food, specifically-
.meat, may be harder to get when the.
higher prices go into-effect next month.
This at least is the suggestion-in the
Polish daily -Zycie Warszawy (Warsaw
Life). An article by university professor
Ryszard Manteuffel notes that- Poland's
1983 slimmer animal census 'showed that'
.the cattle population since the.previous
summer had dropped-5.4%, while the-num-
ber of pigs was. down -20%. This situation
would- probably result in distribution of -
more lower-quality meat products and
shortages at restaurants and stores that
self processed meals, he said. Prof. Man-
teuffel predicted the government, the na-
tion's main meat distributor, would -pur-
chase -16% less meat this year. - ..The February price increase-will vary
from a -16w of 8% for lard to as high as 4211 -
for ham, thestate-controlled- news media.
announced last week. Prices will -rise for
such staples as bread and butter, but won't
be increased for some basic food items
such as .margarine, vegetable oil and low-
quality beef, the government said.
Rationing will continue for such staples
as rice, sugar,-meat and grains, which. re-
main in short supply, the Associated Press
reported from Warsaw.-
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