COMMENT ON (19 MAY) TEXT OF NIE 4-82

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050053-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 15, 2008
• Sequence Number: 53
• Publication Date: May 27, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/01/15: CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050053-2
27 May 1982
NOTE FOR:
FROM
Ha 1 Ford
SUBJECT : Comment on (19 May) Text of NIE 4-82
I have to be in OTE next Wednesday and hence will have to miss the NIC
discussion of your draft. Herewith, in capsule form, my principal
thoughts.
1. Nuclear proliferation as a serious political problem between
certain developing countries deserves much sharper and more explicit
emphasis in the Key Judgments than is given at present. My suggestion:
Change the wording and organization of the KJ's as follows, beginning at
top of p.3. Change that Para to another "--" sub-paragraph (of first
para., p.1 -- that is, the setting forth of the chief new global trends
which will bring the international nonproliferation regime to increasing
trouble.) Make p.3 look something like this:
-- "Perhaps most seriously, nuclear nonproliferation is
increasily becoming a serious, emotional political problem
between certain of the developing countries themselves.
(Then a sentence or two raising the question (likelihood?) of
preemptive military action. Then) In any event the
following regional political problems will become more
pronounced:
(Your present para on South Asia, p.3)
o (Ditto Israel, pp. 3-4)
o (Ditto South America, p.4)
2. Reorganize somewhat present pp. 5-8 of KJ's. I think
progression of thought would flow more smoothly with something
-- (p.5) "Elsewhere, still other developments concerning
non-proliferation will pose heightened threats to US
interests over the next five years.
o (Your sub-para on South Korea and Taiwan, p.5)
o (Ditto Africa, pp. 5-6)
o (Nuclear terrorism, pp. 7-8)
o (US-Soviet relationships with regard to non-
proliferation, pp. 6-7)
the.
like this:
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3. Present pp. 8-10 of the KJ's, the discussion of "a number of
issues arise that warrant further examination," seems to wander around a
bit, various etc. thoughts and ideas looking for a sharper and more
coherent conceptual framework. I should think those pp. could be shortened
and sharpened, and where appropriate have the most crucial needs stand out
more than just "warranting further examination."
4. The text badly needs a few paras. at the end of the KJ's, p.10,
which give the US policymaking consumers some clues as to policy handles:
That is, ideas or avenues of possible US action which might lessen--at
least somewhat--the future of inexorable doom that the NIE text presently
paints.
5. Where appropriate through the KJs and the text, give China's
appearance in the export scene much more stress. Highlight the eyebrow-
raising customers and products.
6. See also the paper-clipped minor items on the copy of your text
I'm returning to you.
Good luck.
cc: C/NIC
VC/NIC
EXO/NIC
NIC/AG
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