COMMENT ON (19 MAY) TEXT OF NIE 4-82

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Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050053-2
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RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
2
Document Creation Date: 
December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 15, 2008
Sequence Number: 
53
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
May 27, 1982
Content Type: 
MEMO
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PDF icon CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050053-2.pdf71.94 KB
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Approved For Release 2008/01/15: CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050053-2 27 May 1982 NOTE FOR: FROM Ha 1 Ford SUBJECT : Comment on (19 May) Text of NIE 4-82 I have to be in OTE next Wednesday and hence will have to miss the NIC discussion of your draft. Herewith, in capsule form, my principal thoughts. 1. Nuclear proliferation as a serious political problem between certain developing countries deserves much sharper and more explicit emphasis in the Key Judgments than is given at present. My suggestion: Change the wording and organization of the KJ's as follows, beginning at top of p.3. Change that Para to another "--" sub-paragraph (of first para., p.1 -- that is, the setting forth of the chief new global trends which will bring the international nonproliferation regime to increasing trouble.) Make p.3 look something like this: -- "Perhaps most seriously, nuclear nonproliferation is increasily becoming a serious, emotional political problem between certain of the developing countries themselves. (Then a sentence or two raising the question (likelihood?) of preemptive military action. Then) In any event the following regional political problems will become more pronounced: (Your present para on South Asia, p.3) o (Ditto Israel, pp. 3-4) o (Ditto South America, p.4) 2. Reorganize somewhat present pp. 5-8 of KJ's. I think progression of thought would flow more smoothly with something -- (p.5) "Elsewhere, still other developments concerning non-proliferation will pose heightened threats to US interests over the next five years. o (Your sub-para on South Korea and Taiwan, p.5) o (Ditto Africa, pp. 5-6) o (Nuclear terrorism, pp. 7-8) o (US-Soviet relationships with regard to non- proliferation, pp. 6-7) the. like this: Approved For Release 2008/01/15: CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050053-2 SECRET Approved For Release 2008/01/15: CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050053-2 3. Present pp. 8-10 of the KJ's, the discussion of "a number of issues arise that warrant further examination," seems to wander around a bit, various etc. thoughts and ideas looking for a sharper and more coherent conceptual framework. I should think those pp. could be shortened and sharpened, and where appropriate have the most crucial needs stand out more than just "warranting further examination." 4. The text badly needs a few paras. at the end of the KJ's, p.10, which give the US policymaking consumers some clues as to policy handles: That is, ideas or avenues of possible US action which might lessen--at least somewhat--the future of inexorable doom that the NIE text presently paints. 5. Where appropriate through the KJs and the text, give China's appearance in the export scene much more stress. Highlight the eyebrow- raising customers and products. 6. See also the paper-clipped minor items on the copy of your text I'm returning to you. Good luck. cc: C/NIC VC/NIC EXO/NIC NIC/AG Approved For Release 2008/01/15: CIA-RDP87T00472R000100050053-2