INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM THE WORLD RICE SHORTAGE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040052-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2006
• Sequence Number: 52
• Publication Date: December 1, 1972
• Content Type: IM

 DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
The World Rice Shortage
Confidential
ER IM 72-169
December 1972
Copy No.
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CONFIDENTIAL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
December 1972
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
THE WORLD RICE SHORTAGE
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1. A growing world rice shortage boosted export prices by more
than 35% bet :veen February and November 1972 and has dimmed
short-term economic prospects in a number of Asian countries. World
production of rice declined about 4% over the past two crop years and
may fall another 3%-5% in the current crop year because of:
unfavorable weather (India, Thailand, the Philippines, and
Brazil),
? disruptions of war (Bangladesh, Cambodia, and South
Vietnam),
? government pricing policies (Burma and Indonesia), and
? deliberate government cutbacks (the United States and
Japan).
2. An estimated 7.4 million metric tons of rice will be exported
in 1972, compared with 7.7 million tons in 1971. Countries that normally
export, such as Cambodia, have had to import rice, while traditional
importers such as Indonesia are seeking additional amounts. Domestic
shortages prompted traditional exporters - Thailand, Burma, and Brazil --
to delay exports until the 1972 fall harvest began. As a result, unfulfilled
requests for imports in 1972 have exceeded one-half million tons. The
shortage has forced the United States to redirect some committed PL-480
supplies to fill more urgent needs in South and Southeast Asia.
Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Economic Research
and coordinated within the Directorate of Intelligence.
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3. The rice shortage is likely to worsen in the late spring of 1973,
when supplies from previous poor crops will be drawn down as much as
three months before the major fall harvests. Supplies in most exporting
countries - the United States, Thailand, Burma, Italy, Australia, and
Brazil - are expected to be lower in 1973 compared with 1972 by as much
as 1.3 million tons because of smaller crops, lower carryover stocks, and
rising domestic requirements. A simultaneous shortage of wheat - due in
large part to the disastrous harvest in the USSR in 1972 - limits one major
avenue of relief for the time being. Furthermore, the output of grain in
the People's Republic of China (PRC), a potential supplier of additional
rice, declined in 1972.
4. The growing world rice shortage and higher rice prices are adding
another burden to some hard-pressed poor nations of the Third Werld,
notably India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Increased
domestic inflation will erode the already low standard of living of the urban
poor. Higher import prices will further burden the balance of payments.
5. A number of countries in Asia, where most of the world's rice
is grown and consumed, have been unsuccessfully seeking large additional
quantities of rice to feed their growing populations and to curb sharply
rising domestic prices. The tightness in the world rice market is the result
of the decline in world output over the past two years and the unfavorable
prospects for current crops. This memorandum deals with recent trends
in rice production, exports, and export prices and with prospects for 1973.
A substantial amount of numerical data is presented in text and Appendix
tables.
Recent Production Trends
6. World rice production, excluding the PRC and North Vietnam,'
declined for two successive years following a bumper crop in 1969/70 (see
Table 1). The downtrend reflected cutbacks in production by some surplus
countries and poor growing weather, crop disease, war, and bureaucratic
pricing problems in a number of major rice-producing countries.
1. A reliable time series is not available for the PRC and North Vietnam. The PRC produced
an estimated 105 million to 110 million tons of paddy in crop year 1971/72. (Crop years beg4n
1 August of the first stated year.)
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Crop Year'
Million Metric Tons
1962/63
161.9
1963/64
172.0
1964/65
177.4
1965/66
164.6
1966/67
167.0
1967/68
185.2
1968/69
194.7
1969/70
200.3
1970/71
196.0
1971/72c
192.4
a. The dnta do not include production in the People's Republic of China -
which produced an estimated 105 million to 110 million tons in 1971/72 -
and North Vietnam. The ratio of milled rice to paddy rice averages about
two-thirds. In contrast to production data, trade data for rice are always given
in terms of milled rice.
b. Beginning 1 August of first stated year.
c. Preliminary.
Decline in the L4.st Two Years
7. Two major surplus countries, the United States and Japan, began
to slash output in 1969/70 as a reaction to excess stocks. Production in
both countries had increased rapidly through 1968/69 with the use of the
new high-yielding seeds, the stimulus of high support prices, and increased
acreage allotments. At the same time, Asian countries had cut back imports
as they had likewise been expanding their production with favorable weather
and the new seeds. Stocks in the TJnited States more than doubled. The
U.; government, under its price support and acreage control progr, m,
thereupon reduced acreage by 10% in 1969 and by 15% in 1970. As a
result, production declined by nearly 20% in two years (see Table 2). An
additional 10% reduction in acreage was announced in August 1971 to apply
to the 1972 crop. This further reduction was rescinded when it became
clear that some Asian countries would need more imports in 1972/73.
8. Japan, which had been a net rice importer through 1968, found
that 6 million tons of stocks had accumulated by 1969. Tokyo moved to
reduce these stocks by promoting the production of alternative crops and
by using I million to 2 million tons of rice annually for feed, new industrial
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Indexes of Paddy Rice Production, by Countrya
1968/69 = 100
Paddy
Production
1971/72
1969/70
1970/71
1971/72
(Million
Metric Tons)
Major exporters
Burma
100
101
100
8.0
Cambodia
115
115
82
2.7
Egypt
100
96
96
2.5
Japan
97
85
72
13.6
Pakistan
117
107
107
3.2
Thailand
108
110
115
14.2
United States
87
81
81
3.8
Other major producers
Bangladesh
107
98
88
15.0
Brazil
96
94
76
5.1
India
102
107
108
64.5
Indonesia
107
121
125
19.0
Philippines
118
120
114
5.0
South Korea
128
130
135
5.8
South Vietnam
116
130
143
6.3
a. For crop years, beginning 1 August of first stated year. For more detailed data, see Table 9 in the
Appendix.
uses, and exports on long-term credit. Production dropped by 28% in three
years and stocks by 70%. The Japanese government now considers stocks
to be at the minimum level for domestic needs.
9. Rice output in some other major producing countries declined
from other causes following a peak in 1969/70. Bangladesh was hit by
serious cyclones in the last `calf of 1970 and by civil war in 1971, which
destroyed crops and interrupted rice planting and harvesting. Open warfare
disrupted agriculture in Cambodia beginning in the spring of 1970. A virus
rice disease swept through the major Philippine : ice areas in 1971/72.
Furthermore, several Asian countries have longstanding domestic policies
aimed at holding down the price of rice to the consumer. While
concentrating on consumer prices, some governments have failed to give
adequate incentives to rice producers, for example, through subsidies or
favorable producer prices. These shortsighted policies have helped depress
output in Burma, Indonesia, Cambodia, and the Philippines.
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Gloomy Prospects
10. Production is expected to decline still further in the crop year
1972/73, primarily because of an erratic monsoon in Asia. Sparse and late
rains this summer (1972) damaged and delayed the major rice crop currently
being harvested throughout Asia. Brazil, another major producer, has been
suffering from drought. As a result, world paddy production in 1972/73
is likely to fall between 182 million and 186 million tons, or be down
by 3%-5% from 1971/72. Although the full impact will not be known until
the harvest is completed in the next few months, the major rice crop in
India is expected to be down by 7%-15% from last year, in Thailand by
12%-25%, in Burma by 10%-25%, and in Indonesia by 5%-10%. In addition,
floods and storms in the Philippines and Bangladesh have destroyed crops,
preventing production from increasing above last year's low levels. In
Cambodia, both the war and bad weather may reduce output as much as
25%, following a similar drop in 1971/72. Stepped-up Communist activity
in the Mekong Delta and poor rainfall are expected to reduce South
Vietnamese rice output by 5%. Moreover, Burma and Indonesia have bungled
rice collections despite increasing requirements for rice in the government
distribution system.
It. The Green Revolution has had a limited impact on rice production
in most less developed countries of Asia because of inadequate irrigation
and problems with the quality of the new high-yielding seeds. For the
1972/73 crop, an estimated 15% of the total rice acreage in Asia's less
developed countries has been planted with the new seeds, compared with
about 10% three years earlier. Unlike the new varieties of wheat, which
have about doubled average yields in India and Pakistan, the new rice
varieties in most areas are not yet well adapted to local conditions. Rice
yields have increased substantially in some areas where the new seeds have
been used on well-irrigated land. But only a small share of the rice area
in Asian countries has adequate water control. During the recent drought,
yields of the new seeds in some areas reportedly were lower than yields
of domestic varieties.
12. In general, the new seeds have been disease-prone; plant disease
has had a marked effect on output in the Philippines and some effect in
India and Bangladesh. Thailand has not adopted the new varieties, preferring
to concentrate on its traditional high-quality domestic strains.
Rice Exports and World Prices
13. The bulk of the rice produced in the world is consumed
domestically; only about 5% enters international trade. Therefore, even
minor shifts in production may seriously affect world rice trade. Even
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though each country attempts to overcome a crop shortfall by
belt-tightening, drawing down domestic stocks, and switching to other
foodgrains, a greater demand for imports normally occurs when production
declines. At the same time, surplus countries react to production declines
by reducing supplies available for export, and if exportable stocks have
also been drawn down, world prices can rise sharply. All these elements
were present in 1972, as the international rice market shifted from a
condition of readily available supplies to a condition of shortage.
Large Stocks
14. In 1970 and 1971, surplus stocks in exporting countries depressed
world prices and resulted in larger exports. Exports increased by about 12%
in 1970 compared with 1969 and made another small gain it 1971 (see
Table 3). All major suppliers pushed exports, some offering excellent credit
terms to reduce their high stock levels. Export prices declined to a low
point in Apri! 1971, about 40% below the level of two years earlier (see
Table 4).2 A number of Asian countries took advantage of the low prices
in 1970 and 1971 to raise domestic consumption and to substitute rice
for less preferred grains.
World Milled Rice Exportsa
1963
7,366
1964
7,687
1965
8,054
1966
7,609
1967
7,097
1968
6,491
1969
6,771
1970
7,561
1971
7,747
1972'
7,400
a. Including the People's Republic of China. For more detailed
data, sec Table 10 in the Appendix.
b. Estimated.
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15. The increased exports in 1970 and 1971 originated primarily in
Asian countries, notably Thailand, followed by Japan and Burma (see
Tahh- 5). South Korea and the Philippines greatly increased their imports
in this period (see Table 6). The United States, which had been the major
world exporter since 1966, withheld some concessionary exports in order
to avoid infringing extensively in the traditional markets of Thailand and
Burma. In turn, those countries slashed prices and cut into US commercial
sales. At the same time, China maintained a high volume of rice exports,
and Japan, with aggressive salesmanship and soft credit terms, more than
doubled its sales.
16. South Korea, which had been increasing its rice imports steadily
since 1965, imported more than 1 million tons in 1971. Indonesian imports
declined in 1971 after reaching a peak of more than 950,000 tons in 1970.
Meanwhile the Philippines, which had been essentially self-sufficient for
three years, had to import more than 400,000 tons in 1971.
Exhaustion of Stocks
17. Rice exports are expected to decline from 7.7 million tons to
an estimated 7.4 million tons in 1972, mainly because stocks in exporting
countries were practically exhausted during the first half of 1972. In the
Northern Hemisphere, stocks are normally at their seasonal low from June
or July until the new harvest begins - in August in the United States and
a month or more later in Asian countries. This year's harvest outside the
United States will be not only smaller but also later than normal. Burma,
Thailand, and Brazil restricted exports in mid-1972 because of domestic
shortages. Japan had reduced its stocks to desired levels by mid-1972, and
declined further requests for exports. In October 1972 the Pakistan
government had only about 100,000 tons of poor-quality rice available for
export before the end of the year. On 1 August the US carryover was
down substantially, and much of it had already been committed.
18. The decline in rice available for exports left unfilled demand for
1972 at more than 500,000 tons. Since mid-1972 a number of Asian
countries, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nepal, Cambodia, South
Vietnam, Laos, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka, have appealed for more rice
imports to fill urgent domestic needs. Most of the requests have been
directed to the United States, Thailand, and Japan. In response, Washington
redistributed some supplies already allocated to South Korea under PL-480
and has urged Japan and Thailand to release some stocks reserved for
domestic use. Some of Indonesia's requirements have been met by re-exports
from European countries and by a promise in November of 100;000 tons
from the PRC.
IPT
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19. Export prices for rice have spurted in response to these
developments. By 13 November 1972 the price of first-quality Thai white
rice had increased by 37'D compared with the end of February (see Table 4).
Prices are still considerably below 1967 prices, which reflected the 1965-66
drought in Asia (see Table 7). Since 1963, world rice prices generally have
varied inversely with the volume of rice exported but with greater amplitude.
Prospects for 1973
20. The world rice situation may ease temporarily because the new
US crop is now available for export, and harvests are under way in Asian
countries. Nonetheless, the deficit in the world rice supply in 1973 probably
will be larger than in 1972. Carryover stocks have already been drawn down
to a minimum in most countries, and world production in 1972/73 may
decline by 6 million to 10 million tons. A shortage could develop in the
We spring of 1973, when the current crop is used up, and could last until
the next major harvest in the fall. Consequently, the need for imports will
increase in 1973 while the supplies available for export will be smaller,
possibly down by as much as 1.3 million tons, or nearly 20% compared
with 1972. The largest decline in exports may occur in Thailand, which
will probably have only I million to 1.3 million tons for export in 1973
compared with about 1.8 million tons in 1972. Exportable supplies in the
United States are expected to be 1.4 million to 1.8 million tons, compared
with nearly 1.9 million tons in 1972. To offset these declines, Egypt may
be able to increase its rice exports but only by using old and poor-quality
rice suitable mainly for animal feed.
21. Next year's rice situation would be eased considerably if the PRC
decided to increase rice exports, as it did in 1966 and 1967, when world
rice prices were unusually high. At that time, the PRC exported more than
I million tons annually, compared with exports of 600,000 to 800,000
tons during 1963-65, and accounted for about 15% of world exports. The
PRC is having a poor agricultural year in 1972, with Premier Chou En-lai
anticipating a 4% cut in grain production, this in a situation of growing
population and austere food rations. Nonetheless, Peking could be tempted
by high rice prices to boost rice exports by a substantial amount in order
to earn additional foreign exchange.
22. The expected gap in rice supplies during 1973 can be only partly
bridged by current efforts of several Asian countries to expand secondary
crops in the winter season. India, for example, has initiated emergency
programs to expand production of rice, wheat, and coarse grains during
the winter. Such efforts are not likely to make a significant contribution
to total annual output, however, because of insufficient rainfall during the
winter and shortages of inputs such as fertilizer. Moreover, the low moisture
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content of the soil and reduced water supplies for irrigation after the poor
monsoon actually may result in smaller-than-normal winter crop production.
23. US supplies of exportable wheat, while limited at present, may
help supplement rice supplies in 1973. The early summer harvest in the
United States is expected to rebuild supplies of hard winter wheat, which
have been drawn down sharply as a result of massive Soviet imports in
1972. Wheat supplies from other countries, however, will continue to be..
limited. Canada has uncommitted wheat in storage at present, but until
mid-1973 exports will be limited by transport capacity to contracts already
signed. In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia and Argentina are expecting
smaller-than-average crops in December 1972, and most of their exportable
supplies are already committed.
Some Economic Implications
24. A decline in the output of rice in less developed countries of
Asia is a serious brake on economic growth. Rice is the major crop in
many of the basically agrarian economics such as India, Bangladesh, Burma,
Indonesia, and Cambodia. Population in these areas has been growing at
2.5% to 3% per year, and rice production must therefore grow steadily
in order merely to maintain, even more to improve, the already inadequate
diet. The necessity to import rice (or the failure to export rice) directly
reduces the ability of these countries to sustain the momentum of their
economic development programs. In several of the affected countries,
economic growth in 1972 will not even offset population growth.
25. The recent declines in rice production dash any immediate hopes
for self-sufficiency in foodgrains in several Asian countries, most notably
India. Demand for rice in India increases by about 3% annually, mainly
because of the growth in population but also because of the substitution
of rice in the diet for coarse grains and roots as income rises. In mid-1971,
rice production had increased by an average of 4% for the previous three
years, and, in December 1971, New Delhi went so far as to announce that
it was halting concessionary foodgrain imports. In November 1972, however,
New Delhi was again shopping abroad for foodgrains, mainly wheat, to
replenish dwindling domestic stocks.
26. The rice shortages of 1972 have already fanned inflation in major
rice-consuming countries. Inflation and food shortages have compounded
existing economic and political problems:
a. In Bangladesh, rice prices in September 1972 were
61% higher than a year earlier (see Table 8).
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b. In India, rice prices in early October reportedly were
the highest ever recorded. Inflation has increased unrest
especially in India s urban labor force, with adverse effects on
already lagging industrial output.
c. In Burma, poor government distribution and
increased rice hoarding has caused open-market rice prices to
double since early 1972. Shortages finally led to looting of
rice warehouses and mills near Rangoon in September.
d. In Indonesia, Jakarta has issued urgent requests since
September for rice imports to control domestic prices, which
the government fears will get out of hand this winter and
jeopardize Indonesia's economic and political stability.
e. Abnormal rises in rice prices have also taken place
during recent months in the Philippines, South Vietnam, Laos,
Thailand, and Nepal.
27. Because of higher world rice prices, exporting countries such as
Thailand, Burma, and Pakistan probably will earn as much foreign exchange
from rice exports in 1973 as in 1972, even with a lower export volume.
On the other hand, India, Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Philippines, and
Indonesia will be hard pressed for cash if they must import rice on
commercial terms. Consequently, all will be shor ping for concessionary
terms and will generally be willing to accept wheat and other grains in
place of rice. The possibility of shortages in the world wheat market as
well, however, leaves next year's foodgrain situation in those countries more
precarious than usual. The demands of the poor nations for grants, credits,
and emergency supplies of rice and other foodstuffs will be mounting in
intensity.
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APPENDIX
STATISTICAL 'TABLES
Table 4
World Milled Rice Export Prlcesa
1969
1970
1971
1972
Jan
181.20
154.20
139.20
133.81
Feb
178.80
151.20
125.10
129.50
Mar
185.28
143.04
115.20
130.50
Apr
183.60
139.20
112.80
131.05
May
190.80
139.20
123.84
135.35
Jun
197.76
141.60
127.20
135.35
Jul
193.60
142.80
129.00
147.35
Aug
188.40
145.68
131.52
171.00
Sep
186.68
142.20
136.20
166.20
Oct
185.40
142.50
133.80
170.90
Nov
186.00
141.60
130.80
176.80b
Dec
178.56
138.00
127.80
a. Prices relate to first-quality Thal white rice (5% brokens), which is
traditionally used to indicate world price trends. The data are for the end of the
month. The prices arc f.o.b. Bangkok.
b. 13 November 1972.
Table 5
Milled Rice Exports, by Major Exporter
Thousand Metric Tons
1969
1970
1971
Thailand
999
1,062
1,576
United States
1,850
1,740
1,415
Burma
541
719
800
Japan
341
630
750
China
726
935
745
Egypt
770
654
515
Pakistana
427
482
467
Italy
179
347
438
Brazil
60
95
129
a. Including sales to the former East Pakistan, now
Bangladesh.
US Dollars per Metric Ton
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Table 6
Milled Rice Imports, by Major Imi-ortera
Thousand Metric Tons
1969
1970
1971
South Korea
631
750
1,007
Indonesia
604
956
510
Bangladesh
324
568
440
Philippines
0
0
437
Ho-1g Kong
347
345
370
Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
309
543
340
Singapore
236
276
273
India
487
206
240
South Vietnam
326
559
137
a. For more detailed data, see Ta a 1T
Table 7
Indexes of World Rice Exports and Prices
1963 = 100
Export Volume
Average Rice
1963
100
100
1964
104
95
1965
109
95
1966
103
115
1967
96
154
1968
88
141
1969
92
130
1970
103
99
1971
105
89
1972
100a
104b
a. Estimated for the whole of 1972.
b. January-October average.
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Table 8
Indexes of Domestic Rice Prices, by Selected Countrya
South Vietnam
1971
Sep
100
100
100
100
Oct
105
98
101
102
Nov
104
95
105
115
Dec
104
92
106
123
1972
Jan
108
93
115
121
Feb
111
94
115
129
Mar
118
95
110
132
Apr
124
98
107
135
May
133
101
105
138
Jun
128
103
105
137
Jul
131
108
109
140
Aug
144
113
113
154
Sep
161
114
124
156
a. Indexes based on retail prices in the capital city, except in the case of India, for which average
wholesale nationwide prices are used.
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Paddy Rice Production, by Countrya
1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1)71/72b
World Total 161.9 172.0 177.4 1(4.6
Western Hemisphere 11.5 11.7 12.5 14.2
Brazil 5.6 5.7 6.3 7.5
United States 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5
Cher 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.2
Africa,Europc,
and Oceania 7.5 7.8 8.0 7.4
Australia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Egypt 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9
Italy 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Malagasy Republic 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2
Other 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.6
Asia' 142.9 152.5 156.9 143.0
Bangladesh 13.3 1115.9 15.1 15.7
Burma 7.7 7.6 8.5 8.0
Cambodia 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.5
India 49.8 55.5 58.6 46.0
Indonesia 13.3 11.9 12.7 13.2
Japan 16.9 16.6 16.3 16.1
Pakistan 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.9
Philippines 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.1
South Korea 4.1 5.1 5.3 4.7
South Vietnam 5.2 5.3 5.2 4.8
Taiwan 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9
Thailand 9.3 10.0 9.6 9.2
Other 13.1 13.6 13.4 13.9
167.0 185.2 194.1 200.3 196.0 192.4
13.0 14.4 15.0 14.6 14.1 12.9
5.8 6.8 6.7 6.A 6.3 5.1
3.9 4.1 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.8
3.3 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.0 4.0
8.0 9.7 9.9 10.4 10.3 10S
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
1.7 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5
0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9
1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9
4.1 d.? 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9
146.0 161.1 169.2 175.3 171.E 169.0
14.4 16.8 17.0 18.2 16.7 15.0
6.6 7.8 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.0
2.4 2.5 3.3 3.8 3.8 2.7
45.7 56.4 59.6 60.6 63.7 64.5
14.0 13.7 15.2 16.2 18-4 19.0
16.6 18.8 18.8 18.2 15.9 13.6
2.0 2.2 3.G 3.5 3.2 3.2
4.1 4.6 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.0
5.3 4.9 4.3 5.5 5.6 5.8
4.3 4.7 4.4 5.1 5.7 6.3
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.7
13.5 11.2 12.4 13.4 13.7 14.2
14.0 14.3 15.5 14.6 8.6 9.0
a. For crop years, beginning 1 August of first stated year.
b. Preliminary.
c. Including the Middle East but excluding the PRC and North Vietnam. Reliable data fo, the PRC are not available on an annual basis. Production is estimated
at 90 million to 95 million tons of paddy rice in 1962/63 and 105 million to 110 million tons in 1971/72.
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040052-9
 Approved For Release 20(G FIDEi-PMIATp,0875R001700040052-9
Exports of ?.filled Rice, by Country
Thousand Metric Tons
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971a
World total
7,366
7,687
8,054
7,609
7,097
6,491
6,771
7,561
7,747
Western Hemisphere
1,375
1,489
1,955
1,942
2,101
2,250
2,194
2,119
1,897
Brazil
0
12
236
289
32
142
60
95
129
United States
1,200
1,330
1,531
1,149
1,801
1,847
1,850
1,746
1,415
Other
175
147
188
304
268
261
284
284
353
Africa, Europe,
and Oceania
780
886
677
686
954
1,174
1,266
1,353
1,305
Australia
64
88
64
84
99
97
117
111
186
Egypt
380
527
330
347
435
570
770
654
515
Italy
147
69
103
81
156
185
179
347
438
Malagasy Republic
28
28
11
20
40
69
52
68
38
Other
161
174
169
154
224
252
148
173
128
Asia
5,211
5,312
5,422
4,981
4,042
3,067
3,311
4,089
4,545
Burma
1,707
1,411
1,348
1,100
531
352
541
719
800
Cambodia
378
488
471
165
203
190
110
170
40
Cldnab
627
805
738
1,200
1,149
886
726
935
745
jaran
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
Negi.
Negl.
341
630
750
Pakistanc
321
269
282
467
391
308
427
482
467
Thaiia,.!
1,418
1,911
1,906
1,508
1,449
1,038
999
1,064
1,576
Other
760
428
677
541
319
293
167
91
167
a. Preliminary.
b. Excluding shipments to North Vietnam.
c. Including sales to the former East Pakistan, now Bangladesh.
CONFIDENTIAL
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 Approved For Release 200l
Cwftf ?j RM0875R001700040052-9
World total
6,680
7,662
7,945
7,912
7,270
6,623
6,686
7,565
7,700
Western Hemisphere
389
539
631
540
387
378
427
402
450
Africa, Europe,
and Oceania
1,700
1,954
1,951
2,142
1,967
1,959
1,961
1,898
1,900
Asia
4,591
5,169
5,363
5,230
4,916
4,286
4,298
5,265
5,350
Bangladeshb
445
224
207
397
462
264
324
568
440
Hong Kong
412
410
370
367
411
314
347
345
370
India
481
633
726
784
455
446
487
206
240
Indonesia
487
949
211
303
306
441
604
956
510
Japan
222
415
967
812
509
271
56
19
Negl.
Malaysia, West
405
415
299
243
301
244
230
272
145
Philippines
256
300
570
108
289
Negl.
0
0
437
Singapore
440
270
291
262
256
286
236
276
273
South Korea
117
Negl.
Negl.
18
.39
247
631
750
1,007
South Vietnam
0
0
130
475
750
678
326
559
137
Sri Lanka (Ceylon)
403
658
642
693
355
270
309
543
340
Other
923
895
950
768
673
725
748
771
1,451
a. Preliminary.
b. Including shipments from West Pakistan.
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040052-9