INDIA'S FOODGRAIN SITUATION: PROGRESS AND PROBLEMS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2006
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: August 1, 1972
• Content Type: IM

 Approved For~J~~$~~~`. CIA-RDP85T9~5R%(b0040~7
~L ''////// Cv
Confidentiai
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intellibenc~ Memorandum
Inrdia's ~Poodgrain Situation: Progress and problems
Confidential
ER IM 72-126
August 19.72
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP$5T00875R00170~040009-7 ~ B
vPY No.
 25X1 gpproved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
COivFIDENTYAL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
Auugust 1972
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
INDIA'S FOODGRAIN SITUATION:
PROGRESS AND PROALEMS
Summary and Conclusions
1. After five successive years of favorable weather and good to
excell~;nt foodgrain crops, India's production prospects this year are
threatened by a late avid erratic monsoon. Since the last severe drought --
in crop year 1966; 67~ 1 ~ - a fairly impressive growth record -especially
in wheat -and foodgrain imports of 20.5 million metric tons raised India's
buffer stocks to record levels and prompted New Delhi late last year to
halt concessionary foodgrain imports. The extent of the adverse impact of
this summer's monsoon on crop size may not be clear until next spring.
Meanwhile, New Delhi is preparing to cope with a potentially sharp drop
in foodgrain availability. There are already indications that it intends to
avoid importing by stock drawdowns and by crash programs for late
planting. If it becomes necessary to import foodgrains, however, India's
leadership will try to avoid requesting PL-4a0 assistance from the United
States .or purchasing US grains commercially. The leadership, especially
Mrs. Ghandi, has been so outspoken in its criticism of the United States
since the Indo-Pakistani war that India would probably exhaust all other
alternatives before turning to the United States. Concessionary terms might
be arranged ~vitl: Canada or Australia. In any event, India's foreign exchange
reserves of $1.3 billion could be drawn down, if necessary, to parchase
foodgi~3ins on the world market.
2. India's foodgrain production increased to nearly 108 milliu^ tons
in 1970/71 from 95 million tons in 196 ; /6R, the year following the last
severe drought. The size of the 1971 /72 crop is still unreported and may
have been as low as 106 million tons. Government subsidies encouraged
!. The crop year runs from 1 July to 30 June.
Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Economic Research
and coordinated within the Directorate of Intelligence:.
CONFIDEN
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-R 08758001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
CONFIDENTIAL
a rapid spread of high-yielding-variety (HYV) wheat since 1967/68, bit
progress in rice has been less impressive. The early types of HYV rice were
disease-prone and met consumer resistance. More suitable Indian hybrid
variet:as have been developed, however, and their use is spreading. I?IYV
wheat, rice, and coarse grains were planted on about I S% of the foodgrain
area in 1971 /72 and have raised yields substantially. More irrigation,
increased double cropping, and greater use of fertilizer also contributed to
output growth.
3. The sc--called Green Revolution in India has generated a new set
of problems, mainly related to the high wheat procurement price, which
greatly increased government subsidy costs an.u induced fanners to shift
irrigated land to wheat from other crops. The budgeted wheat subsidy for
the current fiscal year is more than four times as large as last year. Wheat
in some gases replaced commercial crops needed to maintain industrial
output, and in other cases replaced coarse gains and pulses, which are staple
foods and major sources of protein for the poorer classes. Disparities in
rural income also have increased, as wealthier farmers with large holdings
of irrigated land quickly adopted the HYV seeds and raised lrofits.
Meanwhile, farmers without irrigation and with small holdings have generally
been bypassed by the new technology.
4. The inevitability of reriodic droughts and a rapidly increasing
population are likely to continue to frustrate India's efforts toward
foodgrain self-sufficiency. Demographers familiar with the Indian scene
estimate current population growth at about 2.5% annually and believe it
will accelerate as death rates continue to decline, while high birth rates
will persist until cultural attitudes toward family size change significantly.
Growth of foodgrain production averaged more than 4% annually between
1967/68 and 1970/71, but these were successive years of unusur';:y good
weather. Growth over the past decade has averaged less thans fo. India's
Green Revolution still is concentrated in the winter wheat crop, is heavily
dependent on rainfed irrigation, and hay yet to be exposed to severe drought
conditions. Tt remains to be seen whether that Revolution has reduced
India's dependence for its foodgrains on the vagaries of the monsoon.
Production Trends
5. Generally favorable weather and the continuing spread of the
Green Revolution boosted India's foodgrains production from 89 million
metric tons in i 964/65 -before the last drought years - to almost:
108 million tons ~n 1 ^70/71 (see Figure 1 and the Appendix). Ut'."tcial
~pproved For Release 061'0~1'9~~~~T00875R001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
CONFIDEN'T'IAL
estimates for 1971 /72 may not be available for several months, but Indian
press reports in late July 1972 indicated that the crop may have been about
106 million tons. There are preliminary indications that coarse grains and
pulses performed poorly, while the rice and wheat harvests were at record
levels. Serious flooding in the Ganges Plain and a drought in some highland
areas during the summer of 1971 apparently kept foodgrain production
from surpassing the 1970/71 bumper crop.
6. Despite a five-year period of relatively favorable. growi:rg
conditions, about 20.5 million tons of food rains have been imported since
1967/68 to boost per capita consumption and to build up government
stockpiles. Production growth and imports permitted India to restore
consumption to about its 1964/6 level and to accumulate stockpiles -
mainly domestic wheat - of about 9.5 million tons.
7. Rising yields -averaging about 2%n annually -have accounted
for about three-fourths of the production increase since ' 1964/65 (see
Figure 2). The increase in land area has averaged less than 1% annually,
reflecting mainly an increase in multiple-cropping, although there has been
some shift of commercial cropland to foodgrains.~2~ It is not possible to
determine the relative influence on yields of weather conditions and
technological change. The impressive performance since 1967/68 coincided
with the rapid spread of the Green Revolution -HYV seeds requiring a
package of modern inputs, including lame doses of fertilizer, strict water
control, and pesticides. At the same time, however, it is unlikely that the
Green Revolution would have had as much success without the favorable
weather.
8. Wheat production, influenced by the Gree:i Revolution more than
any other crop, increased by 12%n annually between 1967/68 and 1970/71.
Preliminary reports indicate that wheat output may have reached 26 million
tons in 1971/72, thus more than doubling since 1964/65 (see Figure 3).
The HYV wheat seeds have spread rapidly, to about 7.5 million hectares
in 1971 /72 (see Table 1), roughly two-fifths of all wheat lands. Wheat yields
have been increasing by nearly 7% annually since 1967/68 because of the
sl.~read of HYV seeds, good rainfall, and the use of more fertilizer. Wheat
accounted for 25%n of India's total foodgrain output in 1971 /72, compared
with 14% before the serious drought of the mid-1960s.
9. Although HYV seeds are used on almost as much rice land as
wheat land, growth of rice production has been far less impressive. Rice
output in 1971/72 is tentatively estimated at 43 million tons, compared
wi*_h 39 million tons in 1 y64/65. Adoption of the HYV rice has been
Approved For Release 201'04/`1~9I~i~~~00875R001700040009-73
 Approved For Release 200~1~~~(~i~~1~A(~0875R001700040009-7
India:
Area Planted to HYV Seeds, by Crop
Thousand Hectares
Crop Year a
/ Rice
Wheat
Coarse Grains
1966/67
888
541
457
1967/6Fj
1,785
2,942
1,309
1968/6'
2,683
4,792
1,822
1969/70
4,342
4,910
2,161
1970/71
4,654
6,677
2,428
1971/72,
b/
7,214
7,439
3,233
a. 1 July - 30 June.
b. Preliminary.
disappointing mainly because IR-8 and other imported HYV seeds were
susceptible to pests and disease under India's monsoon conditions. The new
varieties have not been popular with Indian consumers, as they prefer
non-glutinous and finer rice. Nevertheless, more area is still planted to IR-8
than to any other HYV rice seeds, but the government has tested and
released for trial cultivation about 30 additional varieties of rice seeds -
each adapted to specific areas of the country and developed to overcome
these objections.
10. Improved yields for coarse grains (grain sorghum, millets, corn,
and barley) accounted for nearly a 2% average annual increase in output
between 1957/68 and 1970/71 and more than offset a decline in planted
area. The size of the 1971 /72 crop is still uncertain, but the planted area
reportedly declined even further. It is likely that yields also declined, mainly
because of poor rainfall in coarse grain areas. HYV seeds have spread to
only about 7%n of coarse grain areas. Although popular with farmers in
sort~~e areas. HYV corn is still generally unacceptable as a staple food in
India. HYV millet had been spreading rapidly, but during 1971 /72 there
was a reported scarcity of the new hybrid millet seed, and disease attacked
the millet crop in at least one major producing state. Vutput of pulses
generally has stagnated since the drought because of both declining area
and yields. Although some progress has been made in achieving `,enetic
improvements i~~ pulses -three new varieties have been released -HYV
seeds have not yet played a significant role in pulse production.
11. Multiple cropping has contributed significantly to increased
foodgrain production. Since the last drought, the area planted to more than
one crop has increased by about 1 million hectares annually, to 26 million
4 ~~~~~D~
Approved For Release 2 008758001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 200~~~~I.Q,:.(~~P~,5~QQ875R001700040009-7
hectares in 1971 /72. The increase in multiple cropping was made possible
mainly by improved irrigation and the shorter growing season of the HYV
seeds. Even so, only about 20% of India's cropped land currently is multiple
cropped, less than the irrigated area.
12. New Delhi's favorable foodgrain situation was underscored when
it provided food to the 10 million Bengali refugees while they were in
India, and then provided relief shipments of 650,000 tons of wheat and
100,000 tons of rice to Bangladesh. Moreover, according to an
announcement by the Foreign Trade Ministry in May 1902, India planned
to export about 100,000 tons of corn, 20,000 tons of high-quality basmati
rice, ana '?,200 tons of wheat during 1972/73,probably through bilateral
trade agreements with Far Eastern countries. ''
l3. .Apart from the favorable weather and HYV seeds, the impressive
success of wheat production as compared with. other foodgrains is associated
with the government maintenance of a high support price for wheat relative
to other crop prices (see Figure 4). Since 1965/66, wheat procureme:t
prices have increased more rapidly than those of other grains. The
profitability of growing wheat was also increased by the greater yield c?
the HYV wheat -about double that of the traditional varieties. Despite
the higher cost of inputs needed for the HYV seeds, farmers wh;> planted
HYV wheat in 1966/67 reportedly doubled their output and increased their
net income by more than 70%n. Each year since 1968 the government's
Agricultural Price Commission has recommended that the wheat
procurement price be lowered in order to avoid rising subsidy. costs and
distortions in preduction patterns. Political pressures from the large
wheat-producing states and government fear of a decrease in foodgrain
production, however, have induced tl:e Food Ministry to hold wheat
procurement prices steady.
14. A dramatic increase in fertilizer use also has been a key aspect
of the Green Revolution's spread. Total fertilizer consumption in India has
increased by 22%n annually since 1967/68, to about 2.6 million nutrient
tons in 1971 /72. An estimated two-thirds of all fertilizer is now used on
foodgrains. The increase in fertilizer use reflects n..:t only the expansion
in use of HYV seeds but also increased fertilizer supplies from both domestic
production. and imports, continued favorable weather conditions, increased
irrigation, and larger credit flows to farmers. Other contributing factors
include greater promotional efforts such as use of audio-visual
demonstrations, soil testing, regional seminars, and more retail fertilizer
stores. Apparently for these reasons, use of fertilizer, spread widely despite
a 10% excise duty imposed in March 1969.
Approved For Release ~ODg10~4~:~341~~5T00875R00170004000~-7
 Approved For Release 200(~'7~~Q1~~1~~~0875R001700040009-7
l5. the benefits of the Green Revolution actually reach beyond the
HYV areas. As a result of the new technology's popularity, almost all classes
of cultivators have experienced some improvements in income and yields
from the introduction of modern methods of agriculture. Even in rice
growing areas, where use of HYV seeds is still limited because of
agro-climatic conditions, the introduction of fertilizers, pesticides,, and other
modern practices has produced a steady, if moderate, increase in yields
of local varieties.
16. The total irrigated areas reportedly increased by an estimated
1 million hectares in 1971 /72, as it has each year since 1968. Estimates
of irrigated land vary from 25 million to 40 million hectares, depending
on the definition and estimating procedt-res used. About four-fifths of the
irrigated land is used for foodgrain production. 1VIinor irrigation works
(mainly .tubewells and pumpsets) continued to be installed at a rapid rate
in areas already having some irrigation. For the most part, these works
are designed to increase the supply of water and to improve water control.
'Traditional wheat and rice areas have benefited about equally from these
minor irrigation works. In June 1971, India had about 470,000 tubewells -
nearly four times the number in 1965 -and 2.4 million diesel or electric
pumpsets, compared with 980,000 in 1966. The pumpsets, however, are
used an average of only 700 hours during the year mainly because of
(a) power .:nd feel shortages, (b) the lowering of the water table owing
to the proliferation of wells i*. some areas, and (c) the small size of most
farms.
17. With its grain storage facilities overflowing, New Delhi halted
concessional foodgrain imports at the end of 1971, after importing about
2 million tons of US PL-480 wheat in that year. Jr-port of the last
400,000 tons of wheat from the United States under an April i 971
agreement was canceled. Foodgrain stockpiles on 1 Decen-bFr 1971 were
already 7.5 million tons, or close to the government's maximum storage
capacity. Early this year, New Della stated that during 1972 it intended
to import only 100,000-200,000 cons of rice under existiing bilateral trade
agreemEnts with Far Eastern countries and 200,000 tons of wheat on a
commercial basis. Since the beginning of the PL-480 program in India in
1957, PIr480 foodgrain imports have amounted to almost 59 million tons,
valued at US $3.7 billion, and have accounted for about three-fourths of
India's foodgrain imports, as shown in the following tabulation for 1957-71:
6 C~N1~I~~-~~~>b
Approved For Release 2006 04/ 08758001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
INDIA:. Foodgrain Production
1965/G6 1966/67 1967/66 1966/69 1969/70
CROP YEAR (1 July-30 June)
1971/72
(Puliminnry)
INDIA: Area Planted to ~oodgrains, and Yields
AREA Y/ELDS
Million hectares Kg. per hectare
1 so ~-- --, i,ooo
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
Figure 3
CROP YEAP. (1 July-30 June)
Figur^ 4
INDIA: Foodgrain Production, by Crop
Million metric tons
so r-
COARSE
GRAINS
l.. W H
0
1964/65 1965/fiF 1966/fi] 1961/66 1966/69 1969/10 1910171 '.911/72.
~Pie6nun.vyl
INDIA. Indexes of Foodgrain FrocurementPrices
1965/66=10C
lso ~--
120
100
1965/66 1966161
1967/68. 1968/69. 1969/10
WHEAT
CORN
.RICE
SPIKED
MILLET:
CROP YEAR (1 July-30 June).
Approved. For Release 2006/04/1.9 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/O~~~IP~.~,OQ875R001700040009-7
Foodgrain Imports
(Million
' 'Me't'r'ic' 'tons')' ~ ' PL-480 Imports
'
As Percent
Total ' 'Und'e'r 'PL'=4'80 ~ ~ ' 'of To't'al '
Wheat
63.6
51.4 gl
Rice
7.6
1.9 25
Coarse grains
5.5
5.4 98
Total
76.7
'5'8'.7 77
Problems Associated with the Green Revolution
18. High wheat procurement prices, while increasing output rapidly,
have also caused shifts in land use from other crops and actually reduced
the quality of the Indian diet. Serious shortfalls in the production of cotton
and oilseeds, as irrigated land was shifted to wheat, have slowed industrial
growth. Wheat has even been competing with opium poppies, judging from
the government's failure to expand poppy azea to meet the strong world
demand for medicinal opium. Wheat's inroads into land traditionally used
for coarse grains and pulses have reduced per cagita~availability of these
crops and raised their prices. Coarse grains are the staple food of a large
segment of the poorer classes, especially the landless laborers, and pulses
are a major source of protein in the Indian diet. Finally, the new varieties
of wheat are low in protein as well as in amino acids, which are essential
to human metabolism.
19. Wheat prices have been maintained at about double world export
prices and are resulting in a heavy fiscal drain on New Delhi. The Food
Corporation of India, responsible for pricing, stockpiling, and selling
foodgrains through fair price shops, has been steadily increasing the amount
of domestic wheat procured and stored in order to support the wheat price
and to build a stockpile. During 1971/72 the Corporation bought about
6 million tons of wheat at $102 per ton and is selling it for about the
same price, thus absorbing the cost of transporting, processing, and storage.
Until recently theta was no budgetary subsidy necessary, because profits
from the government's sale of low-priced imparted wheat more than offset
the losses on domestic wheat. For the fiscal year ending 31 March 1973,
however, the budgetary allowance for wheat subsidies is about $176 million,
up from $40 million the previous year.
Approved For Release 2006~~119 F~~~DP85~f~75R001700040009-7 7
 Approved For Release 200,(q$/19~$1J.G1~~~IAL.875R001700040009-7
20. Rapid growth of wheat production since 1967f68 has increased
six-fold the amount of wheat marketed and required to be purchased, stored,
and moved to consuming areas. The resulting congestion in market centers,
many of which possess no organized or mechanical facilities for handling
grain, has increased gain losses and has even placed limits on production
in some areas. In Andhra Pradesh, for example, the state government urged
in 1970 that azeas normally planted for a second rice crop be used for
some other purpose to avoid market congestion. Nevertheless,
government-held foodgain stocks increased from 5.5 million tons in 1969
to a reported 9.5 million tons in August 1972.
21. The Green Revolution has increased India's already severe income
disparities among agicultural areas and between large and small landholders.
Because one-third of the sown area normally receives less than 30 inches
of rainfall annually concentrated in three months, greater benefits tend to
accrue to irrigated areas and to farmers wlto have more irrigated land. Since
1962, New Delhi has concentrated its agicultural spending on the
application of modern methods to raise yields in the 20%n-25%n of the total
cultivated area with either irrigation or adequate rainfall. These areas
received even more emphasis after 1966 with the advent of the HYV seeds
and their requirements for Ovate: control. Consequently, progress has been
concentrated in the Indo-Gangetic Plain and in river valleys and other areas
of the country where irrigation is available (see Figure 5). The areas where
HYV wheat could be adapted were particularly favored, especially the states
of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and western Uttar Pradesh. Research was
only recently begun in an effort to raise yields in areas without irrigation
or adequate rainfall.
22. Even within the irrigated areas, however, the gains from the new
technology have been unevenly distributed, with the benefits heavily
weighted in favor of the larger farmers, while the position of small farmers
and tenants actually has been made more difficult. In general, farmers with
4 hectares or more - acco~:nting for only 10%n of a!1 holdings in the
country -have been able to invest in minor irrigation and rew farming
equipment. Farmers with holdings of 2 to 4 hectares f;enerally have managed
to increase yields by applications of small amounts of fertilizer, thereby
increasing their incomes, but have been unable to invest in land
development. Farmers with 1 hectare or less -about 40% of the holdings
in the country -have at best been able to stabilise their standard of living
in the face of rising costs, but most are experiencing acost-profit squeeze,
and some aze selling or renting their land to large operators. With rising
land values, large owners who have continued to lease out land are raising
rents or are demanding a larger share of the crop. iVlost tenants cannot
afford to in;~st in the new production techniques and many aze becoming
landless laborers. With more intensive cropping and diversification of the
improved For Release ~6~6h~~~~~~6?~P~~T00875R001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
India: Foodgra~~ Areas and
Major Irrigation Projects
? . SL?71
L /~CCnDIVC
..
ISLANDS
(61d~;1)
..i wnaot
~;:.,;:~ Rico
~_.,, j Coorse Grain
~ Wheotsnd
r"~ ~' Rlce
O 100 700 300 hlilna
U ITLOO 3OTI(il~lnrrl,.,ic
NAMEB ANb ROU NDARY REPR E9 F.NT ATION
ARE NOT NEC F.59ARILV AUTHORITATIVE
Wheot and
Coarse Grotn
Mainly Noncuitlvotoble
~ Irr!~,atlon Protect
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
CONFIDENTIAL
cropping pattern, agricultural laborers have tended so far to find work more
readily, and ~ their wages have increased during the past several years. But
with a 25% increase in consumer prices since l 966, laborers generally have
experienced little improvemen~ in real income.
Pros cts
23. Because of the erratic behavior of the current monsoon, Tndia's
foodgrain production most likely will decline -perhaps sharply -during
1972/73. More than 75% of India's farmland still lacks irrigation, and the
monsoon's failure to arrive on time and with adequate precipitation is
critical, reducing not only yields but also the area planted as well. This
year the pre-monsoon rains faile~, and the ground could not be prepared
for planting in many areas. The monsoon arrived several weeks late, further
delaying the planting, and in mid-July the rains ceased in most of the
subcontinent. By the first week of August, however, rainfall had resumed
in most drought areas. The extent of the crop failure will depend on the
amount and distribution of rainfall during the remainder of August and
September.
24. India is now in a much better position to cope with the effects
of a poor crop than it was in 1965 when atwo-year drought of major
proportions began. The government has art emergency food stockpile of
9.5 million tons and a distribution, system already in operation. By contrast,
the buffer stock program had not yet been established in 1965, and the
government had little or no stocks under its control. To cope with the
food distribution problem in 1965, the central government increased the
number of government-licensed fair price shops to sell foodgrains at fixed
prices. This system has been continued with about 125,000 shops in the
system at present, handling large amounts of grain each month. Both the
central and state governments also have had experience with various
rationing systems, which were continued in the major cities for several years
after the drought. The Food Corporation of India, established in January
1965 to handle imported and dornestic gain supplies and to control
interstate trade in foodgrains, has expanded its purchasing efforts each year,
procuring 6 million tons during the 1971 /72 crop year alone. Although
the Corporation still does not have authority to force states to surrender
surplus grain, its working relziionships with state governments are improving.
25. The spread of irrigation in recent years has raised production levels
but will not necessarily mitigate the impa:;t of the drought. The impact
of irrigation on 1972/73 output will depend on the duration and severity
of this year's drought - in the winter months as well as in the monsoon
season. Nominally, about 25%n of the foodgrain area has some form of
irrigation, but, without the annual monsoon to fill the reservoirs and tanks
and to maintain the underground water table, some of this irrigation fails.
Approved For Release 26~rb~~~j~,~I~'F~~,~J00875R001700040009g7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
CONFIDENTIAL,
r ubewells are excellent sources of ~,vater for most crops if the water table
does not fall, but normally tubewells alone cannot supply sufficient water
to flood rice paddies. Moreover, HYV seeds are being used in India on
some areas that depend entirely on rainfall for water.
26. 'Lilo major long-run constraint in achieving a higher growth rate,
not only in foodgrains but in other crops as well, is the shortage of irrigation.
Rapid expansion of irrigation into the vast expanse of dry land in India
depends on large-scale projects to utilize surface water. Prospects for such
projects are poor. Tlie Fourth Five-Year Plan (1969-73) targeted a 4.3%n
annual increase in irrigated area, but actual growth in the first three years
of the plan was only about ?.% per year. Expenditures were made at the
planned rate, but physical achievements fell below plan be.ause construction
costs of projects already under way increased by 37%n in three years. The
number of new schemes that were planned for initiati~ have since been
reduced. Unless additional funds are allocated, the spre..~d of surface
irrigation will be even slower ~n the future.
27. With rnuch of the existing irrigated rice land already planted with
HYV seeds, z slow spread of irrigation facilities will preclude a breakthrough
in HYV rice similar to the breakthrough in wheat. Moreover, most rice
farmers have relatively small landholdings and are unable financially to
exploit the new technolcgy. Meanwhile, India's population growth is likely
to accelerate at least for several years, increasing foodgrain requirements
even more rapidly than in the past. Death rates, especially among infants,
are expected to continue declining; but birth rates are not expected to
decline significantly. Birth control efforts thus far have been only marginally
successful. Traditional attitudes favoring "extra" offspring -- to offset
~mticipated early deaths -persist despite declining infant mortality.
28. As for the current crop year that began 1 July, a poor crop will
not necessarily mean an immediate ,~:surnption of concessionary foodgrain
imports. New Delhi already has indicated that it will avoid such imports
as long as possible. Stock drawdowns and lower per capita consumption
could tide the nation over one poor crap year, although the government
may have difficulty controlling food prices. If imports are needed, New
Delhi will try to avoid requesting assistance from the United States or
purchasing US grain commercially. The Indian government is cleai:y piqued
by US policy during the Indo-Pakistan war, by US suspension of some
economic aid in the pipeline, and by U5 failure to resume economic aid
shipments. New Delhi already has retaliated by restricting commercial
imports from the United States t'irough informal pressures on Indian
importers. Alternatively, concessionary terms might be arranged with Canada
or Australia. Of course, India coul~ shop for commercial wheat priced
A~roved For Release 2~10~/~~~,~?T00875R001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
~ON~'IDENTIAL
currently at ab~~ut $70 per ton (including freight). Ii has foreign exchange
reserves of $1.3 billion -its best ir~ternatioral economic por~ition since the
late 1950s. Sinco its ba!an~ce?of-payments problems of the early 1960s,
however, New Delhi has been tight-fisted with its reserves and would accede
to a heary drawdown only after exhausting other alternatives.
Approved For Release 200~'Q~j'~~~~A~( 8758001700040009-711
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
COI1F hEN1'IAL
APPENDIX
Statistical Tables
'Approved For Release 2~Y~~'.J~f~T00875R001700040009~a
 Approved For Release 20~/'~I~~~5~00875R001700040009-7
India:
Foodgrain Production
Million Metric Tons
/
Rice
Coarse
b
Crop Year a
(Milled)
Wheat
/
Grains
Pulses
/
Total c
1949/50
23.54
6.39
16.82
8.16
54.92
1950/51
20.58
6.46
15.38
8.41
.50.82
1951/52
21.30
6.18
16.09
8.42
52.00
1952/53
22.90
7.50
19.61
9.19
59.20
1953/54
25.21
8.02
22.97
10.62
69.82
1954/55
25.22
9.04
22.32
10.95
68.04
1955/56
27.56
8.76
19.49
11.04
66.85
1956/57
29.04
9.40
19.86
11.55
69.86
1957/58
25.52
8.00
21.23
9.56
64.31
1958/59
30.85
9.96
23.19
13.15
77.14
1959/60
31.68
10.32
22.87
11.80
76.67
1960/61
34.57
11.00
23.74
12.70
82.02
1961/62
35.66
12.07
23.22
11.76
82.71
1962/63
33.22
10.78
24.63
11.53
80.15
1963/64
37.00
9.85
23.72
10.07
80.64
1964/65
39.31
12.26
25.37
12.42
89.36
1965/66
30.66
10.42
21.15
9.80
72.03
1966/67
30.44
11.39
24.05
8.35
74.23
1967/68
37.61
16.54
28.80
12.10
95.0?
1968/69
39.76 ~
18.55
25.18
10.42
94.01
1969/70
40.43
20.09
27.29
11.69
99.50
1970/71
42.45
23.25
30.54
11.58
107.32
a. 1 July - 30 June.
b. Including grain sorghum, millets, corn, and barley.
c. Because of rounding; components may not add to the totals
shown.
14 gpproved For Release 2~8~4yt9jICYPF-RDP'8'9~00875R001700040009-7
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19: CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040009-7
CON~'Il).ENTIAL
India: Foodgrain Area a/
Rice
Coarse
Crop Year ~
(Milled)
Wheat
c/
Grains
P
l
`
u_
ees
To`
1949/50
30.52
9.76
38.84
20.32
99
28
1950/51
30.81
9.75
37.67
18.68
.
97.32
1951/52
195
29.83
9.47
38.88
18.81
96.96
2/53
1953
29.97
9.83
42.45
19.89
102.09
/54
1954
31.29
10.68
45.37
21.77
109.06
/55
1955
30.76
11.26
43.92
21.95
107.86
/56
1956
31.52
12.37
43.46
2:3.25
110.56
/57
1957
32.28
13.52
42.02
23.35
111.14
/58
1958
5
32.30
11.73
42.91
22.58 ~
109.48
/
9
1959
6
33.17
12.62
44.66
24.35
114.76
/
0
33.82
13.38
43.79
24.88
115.82
1960/61
1961
6
34..13
12.93
.44.96
23.56
115.58
/
2 .
1962
34.69
13.57
44.73
24.24
117.23
/63
196
35.70
13.59
44.29
24.27
117.84
3/64
196
35.81
13.50
43.93
24.19
117.42
4/65
19
36.46
13.42
44.35
23.79
118.11
65/66
9
35.27
12.66
43.16
22.08
113.17
1
66/67
35.25
:L2.84
45.09
22.26
115.30
1967/68
36.,44
15.00
47.34
22.65
121.42
1968/69
;:t6.97
15.96
46.24
21.26
120.43
1969,/70
37.68
16.63
47.24
22.02
123.57
1970/71
37.43
17.41
46.12
22.42
123.87
a. Data as reported in Afficia statistics. T e ifferences
between the sum cf the components and the totals are unex-
plained in Indian statistics.
b. 1 July - 30 June.
c. Including grain sorghum, millets, corn, and barley.
Million Hectares
Approved For Release 20~I~~~~~90875R001700040009-7 15
 Approved For Release 2001i/Q4/1~~~I~E2[~$,5~_TQL0875R001700040009-7
India:
Foodgrain Yields a/
Kilograms per Hectare
Rice
Coarse
b/
Crop Year
(Milled)
Wheat
c
Grains ~
Pulses
Total
1949/50
771
655
433
405
553
19.50/51
668
633
408
441
522
1951/52
714
653
414
448
536
1952/53
764
763
462
463
580
1953/54
902
750
506
489
640
1954/55
820
803
520
500
631
1955/56
874
708
448
476
605
1956/57
900
695
473
495
629
1957/58
790
682
495
424
587
1958/59
930
789
519
541
672
1959/60
937
772
522
475
662
1960/61
1,013
851
528
539
710
1961/62
1,028
890
519
485
705
1962/63
931
793
556
475
680
1963/64
1,033
730
540
416
687
1964/65
1,078
913
572
520
757
1965/66
869
824
490
444
636
1966/67
863
887
533
377
644
1967/68
1,032
1,103
608
534
783
1968/69
1,076
1,169
545
490
781
1969/70
1,073
1,209
5?8
531
805
1970/71
1,134
1,335
X62
516
870
a. Al~yiel s computed using unroun a ata or pro uction
and area. Because of rounding, components may not add to the
totals shown.
b. 1 July - 30 June,
c. Including grain sorghum, millets, corn, and barley.
16 Approved For Release 2~~~00875R001700040009-7