ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140026-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: August 9, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

 /R/c2LR E / w 7CS/fi9
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Secret "o
WAN COPY
Return is 038
? 11 p$
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 7745/73
9 August 1973
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Sl1;CRC'1'
Japan's Steel Exports to 1-lit New High in 1973
Peanuts in Short Supply
Worldwide Grain Developments
Japan Importing More US Agricultural Products Imports -
especially of grains - are up sharply this year and are likely to
continue at a high level in 1974.
Argentine Moves Against Foreign Investments Foreign Investment
comes under increasing nationalistic pressure.
Libya Prepared to Enforce Its Oil Sector Aims Libya's bargaining
position strengthened during recent lull in oil negotiations. 7
Venezuelan Oil Developments Spiraling world prices have lessened
pressures on Caracas to develop new oil reserves. b
Central Bank Intervention in International Money Markets Central
bank intervention has again become a major factor in international
money markets, but an easing of German credit policy was also
needed to stabilize the money markets.
GATT Trade Negotiations GATT trade talks are to begin in
September 10
Publication of Interest
Summary of a Recent Publication
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External
Economic Activity
i 9 August 1973
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Notes
Japan's Steel Exports to Hit New High in 1973
The Japan Iron and Steel Federation is predicting record steel exports
in 1973. Shipments are expected to reach 24.3 million tons, with a value -
buoyed by rising export prices - of more than $5 billion. Exports during
the first half of the year amounted to 12.1 million tons, a 20% increase
from the same period in 1972. Exports to the United States were
3%, to 2.7 million tons.
Egypt Invites US Oil Exploration
Egyptian officials are trying to interest US oii companies in exploring _
the Western Desert, where Soviet technicians conducted an unsuccessful
15-year search for oil. Soviet efforts, :nvoiving nearly $70 million of credits,
were hampered by obsolete seismograph technology and drilling equipnI nt
unsuited to desert operations. Cairo hopes to replace Soviet assistance with
US expertise by inviting exploration on a production-sharing basis.
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25X1
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Peanuts in Short Supply
Poor crops in major peanut exporting countries are aggravating the
shortage and costliness of high protein livestock feeds. Peanut meal brought
a record $500 a ton in July, more than triple its price a year earlier. Drought
in Africa and India and flooding rains in Brazil and Argentina have reduced
the five leading exporters' peanut harvests by 20%. Consequently, this year's 25X1
exports of peanuts and by-products may not exceed 1.7 million tons,
compared with about 2.0 million tons in 1972. Peanut prices probably will
continue at high levels at least through this year.
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Worldwide Grain Developments
Bumper Soviet Harvest Continues
Despite slower than normal harvest progress, a record Soviet grain crop
of 155 million to 160 million tons of usable grain is now likely.
Ideal weather and minimal harvest losses are needed to reach the higher
figure, while the lower figure will result if less than ideal conditions cause:
? direct harvesting losses of 10% to 15% on the 10 million
to 15 million hectares of lodged grain.in the European USSR
? more than moderate masses in harvesting overripe grain due
to delayed harvesting.
Harvesting operations in the western USSR, slowed by lodged grain
and wet weather, could lead to higher than expected losses. By 6 August,
30% of the total grain area had been threshed, compared with an average
of 36% in 1970-72.
Even with the predicted record harvest, imports of 11 million to 16
million tons of grain will be needed to meet export requirements and
domestic demand. If the harvest reaches 160 million tons, the 8 million
tons of grain already purchased this year plus deliveries of grain botight
last year will satisfy the minimum Soviet requirement until next August.
Additional imports will be required if the harvest is less than 160 million
tons or should the Soviets decide to increase grain reserves, which are now
minimal.
Recently, the Soviets tempered earlier statements that they would
make no further grain purchases crom the United States through 1975. They
now claim that they have stopped buying US grain only temporarily to
ease the pressure on the US market. In this connection, they will reduce
the amount of corn contracted for this year, moving some of it into
FY 1975.
The Soviets have already indicated interest in additional purchases in
Canada, Australia, and France. The Canadians agreed to supply no more
than 4 million tons of grain during FY 1974. The Soviets could meet
similar reluctance by other exporting countries to commit much of their
crop until their exportable surplus is known. 25X1
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China has purchased a record 6.7 million tons of wheat and corn for
delivery in FY 1974. The United States will supply 5.6 million tons,
compared .with only 1.4 million tons last year. In its first report on the
1973 harvest, Peking indicated disappointment with the summer grain
harvest. Output reportedly only equaled last year's crop despite expanded
acreage. Since the summer crop accounts for only 20% of the total, China's
overall grain supply position and import requirements this year will depend
heavily on the fall harvest. Because of changed cropping patterns, the crop
will be unusually late, making the crop especially vulnerable to bad weath .
Other Wheat Developments
Argentina, after banning further export commitments in July,
reportedly is trying to buy 500,000 tons of US wheat to help meet exp ort
commitments and domestic needs. 25X1
Ottawa expects the current wheat crop to reach a record 18.2 million
tons, of which 13.2 million tons will be available for export. Canada already
has committed about one-half of this amount and has received purchase
requests exceeding the remainder. F-- I 25X1
The Common Market, normally a significant exporter of wheat, on
7 August banned exports of soft wheat because it had received export
licensing requests for 1 million . tons in the last three days.
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Japan: Selected Agricultural Imports
January- January-
May May
1972
1973
Percent Change
Corn
2,391
3,128
31
United States
834
2,432
192
South Africa
697
466
-33
Thailand
624
153
-75
Other
236
77
-67
Piheat
1,999
2,232
12
United Status
779
1,367
75
Australia
684
183
-73
Canada
536
597
11
Other
85
Grain sorghum
1,344
1,408
5
United States
734
1,235
68
Argentina
348
48
-86
Australia
139
99
-29
Other
123
26
-79
Soybeans
1,455
1,619
11
United States
1,322
1,510
14
China
133
103
-23
Other
6
Cotton
420
445
6
United States
117
159
36
Nicaragua
43
32
-26
Mexico
41
26
-37
1TSSR
40
58
45
Other
179
170
-5
Pork
11
48
336
United States
4
19
375
Canada
4
7
75
Taiwan
1
10
900
Other
2
12
500
Poultry
9
11
22
United States
2
4
100
China
2
4
100
Other
5
3
-40
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Japan Importing More US Agricultural Products
The volume of Japan's imports of US farm products is up sharply
this year. Imports of US grain during January-May increased by 114% over
the same period of 1972, compared with a 49% drop in grain imports from
other countries. US pork and poultry also are going to Japan in greatly
increased - though still small - amounts.
Japan's imports of US agricultural products will continue at a high
level through next year. Although the Japanese probably will be able to
buy more wheat from Australia and soybeans from Brazil, they are ordering
large amounts of US grain and other farm products. By mid-July they
reportedly had ordered about 4 million tons of corn and 2 million tons
of grain sorghum, mostly for delivery in 1974. These orders alone exceed
Japan's imports of US corn and sorghum in 1972. Contracts for US
soybeans, which fell off following enactment of export controls in early
July, picked up substantially by mid-month. The Japanese also have made
large purchases of US cotton.
Tokyo continues to worry about its reliance on the United States for
many agricultural products. This concern has strengthened the government's
determination to help private firms develop alternative sources of supply,
preferably through direct investment in the agricultural sectors of other
western Pacific countries. 25X1
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Argentine Moves Against Foreign Investment
Argentina's foreign investment climate has deteriorated rapidly in the
first months of Peronist rule. Pending bills would expropriate, restrict, or
otherwise discourage foreign investment. These threats, combined with
terrorist kidnapping, extortion, ---ad murder, are bringing new investment
to a virtual standstill. Foreign direct investment in Argentina amounts to
$3 billion, of which some $1.4 billion is American.
The major proposals concern:
? Limits on Foreign Ownership: Pending legislation, which
is more restrictive than the Andean Foreign Investment Code,
would force most foreign interests to reduce their equity share
to less than 20%, others to 49%. The bill also would limit annual
profit and capital remittances to 12.5% and 5% of invested capital,
respectively.
? Bank Renationalizatiun : This bill, approved 2 August,
expropriates foreign bank holdings acquired since 1966. Affected
are interests of Chase Manhattan, Morgan Guaranty Trust, First
National City Bank of New York, and two Spanish banks. While
only about $4 million in US equity is threatened immediately,
financial exposure exceeds $400 million for the three banks.r-
? Expropriation of ITT Properties: This bill would expropriate
ITT holdings, compensation being adjusted to reflect alleged
excess profits. ITT's equity in Standard Electric Argentina and
the Sheraton hotel in Buenos Aires is valued at $75 million. The
law also would cancel the remainder of a $135 million contract
in which Standard Electric would supply and install telephone
switching exchanges and lines for the state telecommunications
enterprise.
? Nationalization of Oil Refineries: This measure would
nationalize all eight privately owned refineries, the two largest
of which are operated by Esso and Royal Dutch Shell. Esso has
approximately $60 million invested in Argentina and already has
suffered substantial losses from reduced crude oil allocations and
other discriminatory moves.
6
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Libya Prepared to Enforce Its Oil Sector Aims
Libya renewed negotiations with US oil companies on 1 August with
its bargaining position strengthened. The Libyans are confident they :;an
enforce their revised participation demands without seriously Jeopardizing
oil output or exports.
Libya's bargaining position has been improved by the current scramble
for oil
Despite BP's boycott attempts (now seconded
by Bunker Hunt), Libya has oversold oil from the former BP/Bunker Hunt
concession, mostly to Western buyers. A backlog of long-term orders is
accumulating at prices in excess of $3.50 per barrel.
As an example to other companies, the Libyan Government has
increased pressure on the Oasis oil company, which along with Occidental
is now facing a 15 August deadline on a 51% participation demand.
Occidental apparently is prepared to acquiesce to Libyan demands. A
settlement by Occidental would force Oasis to follow suit or leave. Amoseas,
although not yet approached during the current round of negotiations, also
expects a direct confrontation. At least temporarily, other companies may
be spared the full effect of Libya's increased muscle.
Esso may be
ignored or some time because o the government's unwillingness to upset
its complex operations, which include one of the world's largest liquefied
natural gas plants.
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Venezuelan Oil Developments
Government revenues from oil in the first six months of 1973 exceeded
budget projections b} 13%. This makes development of new petroleum
reserves a less pressing matter and will strengthen Caracas' bargaining
position in negotiations with the United States for a long-term oil agreement.
Higher revenues reflect both a rise in world oil prices and a slight recovery
in Venezuelan exports.
Venezuela's oil production has recovered to nearly 3.4 million barrels
per day (b/d) this year, after having slipped nearly 15% from a 1970 peak
of 3.7 million b/d. Rising Middle East oil prices and high tanker rates
restored the competitive position of Venezuelan oil in its traditional
short-haul markets. Two-thirds of this oil is sold to the United States and
Canada. Sales to European and South American markets continued to
decline, however, further increasing dependence on the US market.
The delivered price of Venezuelan oil to the US East Coast now runs
as high as that of US oil. Future Venezuelan revenue increases will depend
largely on increasing production and higher prices in major foreign markets,
particularly the United States. Proved reserves now cover only 12 years'
production at current levels and are declining steadily. If new areas are
not developed, production is expected to drop to 2.5 million b/d within
the next decade. With such a decline, US oil prices would have to rise
by an estimated 10% annually if Caracas is to maintain its past rate of
revenue growth.
Venezuela has sizable unproved reserves both offshore and in the
Orinoco tar belt that could be brought into production in 3 to 10 years.
Although Caracas would like to develop its own reserves, it lacks both the
advanced technology and mascive capital resources that the major oil
companies could provide. After the December elections, the new government
probably will consider a long-term energy agreement with the United States
that would encompass investment guarantees for the companies and a
preferential market for output from new fields. These negotiations are likel
to be difficult and protracted. 25X1
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THE r.JROPIiAN CURRENCY BAND, 1973
PERCENT (:11,%N(;[: FROM CENTRAL lu
19 26 2 9 l( 23 30 bf 21 28 1 II 18 2S 9 IG 23 30 6
NI AIt APIs MAY .I11N 1111. AUG
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Central Bank Intervention in International Money Markets
Central bank intervention again became a major fa or in international
money markets in July.
?
The US and German central banks intervened to support
the dollar.
?
Substantial intervention was required, mainly by
Bundesbank, to maintain the European joint float.
the
?
The Italians and the British intervened heavily to support
the falling lira and pound.
Total intervention by the major central banks amounted to the equivalent
of about $2.5 billion. The Bank of Italy spent the equivalent of about
$1 billion; the Bundesbank, about $800 million; and the Bank of England,
approximately $500 million.
Resumed intervention to support the dollar reflected official concern
with growing exchange market instability. The intervention was designed
to minimize short-term fluctuations in exchange rates and to slow the rise
of the German mark and the slide of the dollar, the lira, and the British
puuund. No country was willing to undertake the multibillion-dollar effort
needed to defend the existing exchange rates against powerful market forces
for change.
Intervention helped to dampen currency fluctuations. Nevertheless, the
mark continued to appreciate, and the Bundesbank, under considerable
pressure from other governments, had to relax its tight money policy. It
was not until the German overnight interest rates dropped sharply on
30 July that pressure on the dollar and the joint float eased. The dollar
has been strong and the joint float stable so far in August.
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GATT Trade Negotiations
The "Nixon Round" of multilateral trade negotiations will be launched
at a Tokyo ministerial meeting in mid-September. Detailed negotiations are
scheduled for November in Geneva.
At a month-long meeting in July, the GATT Preparatory Committee
hammered out a declaration of principles to guide the trade talks. Although
agreement was finally reached, differences emerged among the United States,
the EC, and Japan, and between developed and developing countries. The
declaration calls for countries to obtain negotiating authority as rapidly
as possible, but the EC agreed with Washington that the lack of negotiating
authority should not prevent the start of analytical work.
Agriculture will be a difficult issue. The declaration calls for similar
treatment of agricultural and industrial commodities, but recognizes the EC
position that agriculture poses special problems. There was little indication
that the EC was willing to reduce substantially its barriers to US agricultural
exports.
Whether trade negotiations can move forward only after monetary
stability is achieved remains to be settled in Tokyo. In the US view, progress
in the monetary area depends on progress in trade negotiations. France
maintains the reverse but agreed to an EC compromise calling for paralle!
progress in the two areas.
Trade negotiations will also involve a rich-poor confrontation. The
principal points gained by the less developed nations at the July meeting
were a watered-down version of their demand for preferential treatment
and a provision calling for special procedures for negotiations between them
and the developed countries. A dispute between the Africans and the Latin
Americans over special consideration for the least developed countries, a
category that includes some African countries but no Latin American ones,
will be carried into the Tokyo meeting.
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Publication of Interest
The Flow of Arms to the Arabian Peninsula
(CIA ER IR 73-15, August 1973,
Arms purchases by Arabian Peninsula countries from the beginning
of 1955 through June 1973 totaled about $2.5 billion. More thar, $1.6
billion of this sum has been contracted since January 1968, when the British
announced withdrawal of their military forces from the Persian Gulf. Saudi
Arabia accounts for about 85% of the arms purchases.
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ugust 1973
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EXPORT PRICES
(US S)
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Average Annual
Grown Rate Since
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Mmahs
Period Period 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States May 73 3.1
Japan Jun 73 1.4
West Germany Apr 73 0.9
France . Mar 73 6.9
United Kingdom Jun 73 3.1
Italy Mar 73 0.9
Canada Apr 73 3.5
EXPORT PRICES
(National Currency)
United States May 73 3.1
Japan Jun 73 1.5
West Germany Apr 73 0.7
France M. r73 1.5
United Kingdom Jun 73 1.2
Italy Mar 73 0.9
Canada ' Apr 73 I 3.6
IMPORT PRICES
6.3
12.0
10.9
12.8
11.2
8.1
60
(National Currency)
United States
May 73 i
12
9.9
Japan
; Jun 73
3.2
:.8
West Germany
Apr 73
1.3
0.3
France
Mar 73
1.9
2.5
United Kingdom
Jun 73
1.7
11.4
Italy
I Mar 73
3.4
7.5
Canada
Mar 73
3.4 1
4.0
OFFICIAL R;:SERVES
latest Period
End of
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
13.7
22.4
13.0
20M
11.8
8.1
12.5
EXPORTS'
(i.o.b.)
Perini) Million US S
1973 1972
18.9
United States
Jun 73 5,778 Ja
n-Jun 32.289 22
986
23.7
Japan
Jun 73
2.865 Ja
.
n?Jun 18.638 13
068
84.5
West Germany
Jun 73
5.088 Ja
,
n-Jun 29,916 22
498
70.4
France
Jun 73
3,135
Ja
,
n-Jun 16,882 12
821
34.1
United Kingdom
Jun 73
2,512 I
Ja
,
n-Jun 13
638 11
716
30.4
Italy
May 73
1.768
Ja
,
,
n-May 7,542 7
352
32.8
Canada
May 73
2.029 Ja
,
n-May 9,851 7,949
IMPORTS'
(f.o.b,)
latest
Cumulative (Million US SI
Period Million US S
1973 1972
18.9
United States
Jun 73 5,793 Jan
-Jun
33,099
25
114
17.9
Japan
Jun 73 2,761 i Jan
-Jun
g
13
794
,
8
719
4.2
West Germany
Jun 73 ! 4,039 Jan
-Jun
,
23,408
,
18
305
123
France
Jun 73 3,038 Jan
-Jun
16,370
,
12
371
15.1
United Kingdom
Jun 73 2.867 1 Jan
?J' t
15,523
,
12
231
24.1
Italy
May 73 1118 Jan
-May
8,500
,
6
774
33.4
Canada
May 73' 1,912 Jan
-May 9,118
.
7,521
TRADE BALANCE'
14.0 16 ' 3
' 13.3
14.0
15.2 4.1
15.9
16.8
40.9 8.8
24.8
30.6
10.2 4.4
9.4
11.2
6.6 2.8
6.1
6.1
6.4 4.7
6.5
5.8
5.8 4.j
8.2
5.9
Latest Cumulative (Million US S)
Period Million US S 1973 1977
United States Jun 73 15 Jan-Jun
610
2
128
Japan Jun 73 104 Jan-Jun
2,C44
.
4
349
West Germany 1 Jun 73 1.050 Jan-Jun
6.507
,
4
193
France Jun 73 97 Jan?Jun 612
.
449
United Kingdom -
Jun 73 358 Jan-Jun 1,887
-515
Italy -
May 73 353 Jan -May -966
578
Canada May 73 117 Jan-May 735
428
EXCHANGE RATES (Spot Rate)
As of 3 Arta 73 US S
Japan IYerrr 0.00J7
l
I
ut
h
35.70
15.31 -1.55
-0.58
Da
oc
e
0.4258
West Germany
k
69.37
37.22 20
25
-2
02
r
) France (Franc) 0.2427
r
20.21
.
23.26 10.12
.
-1.54
U^ited Kingdomsie
inj 2.5092 j
-10.08
-3.70 ~ 1.96
0.07
Italy (Lira) 0.0017
8.06
0.58 -2.26
0.70
Canada (Dollar) 0.9986 8.28
0.08 0.09
-0.14
TRADE-WEIGHTED
9 Aug 73
As of 3 Aug 73
Percent Change from
Oct 66
18 Dec 71 19 Mar 73 27 Jul 73
United States
-20.03
-10.43
-3.62
0
55
Japan
22.24
8.29
-3.74
1
.
-0
32
West Germany
33.86
.
France
-10.25
2.97 I
0.53 I
-0
70
United Kingdom
-33.18
.
Italy
-21.03
Canada
3.88
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DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Average Annual
Percent Change Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Period Period 1970 Earlier Earlier
GNP"
WH
OLESA
LE PRICES
(Constant Market Prices
United States
)
Quarter
73 II
0.6
5.1
6.4
Previous
Quarter
2.5
(Indu
Unit
strial)
ed States
Jul 73
4
8 7
5 8
3
Japan
73 I
3.6
9.8
16.0
15.2
Japa
n
Jun 73
.
1
4
.
13
6
.
11
4
West Germany
73 1
5.4
4.7
8.8
23.8
Wes
t German
y
Jun 73
.
4.7
.
6
7
.
6
8
France
73 I
2.0
5.5
3.8
8.2
Fran
ce
Apr 73
2
6
.
12
0
.
20
2
United Kingdom
73 I
1.5
3.2
7.1
8.2
Unit
ed Kingdo
m
Jun 73
.
7
6
.
2
6
.
3
7
Italy
73 I
0.8
3.1
5.2
3,^
Italy
Apr 73
.
4
8
.
12
1
.
18
7
Canada
73 I
2.9
.6.3
8.0
12.1
Cana
da
Jun 73
.
7.5
.
16.1
.
15.8
United States
Jun 73
9.6
6.1
Unite
d States
Jun 73
5
9 8
3
Japan
Jun 73
19.4
13.0
Japa
n
May 73
.
11
1
.
29
1
West Germany
May 73
7.8
-4.3
West
German
y
Jun 73
.
7
9
.
8
5
France
May 73
10.6
10.7
Franc
e
Jun 73
.
7
4
.
10
0
United Kingdom
May 73
9.2
3.5
Unite
d Kingdo
m
Jun 73
.
9
.
13
3
Italy
May 73
8.8
51.7
Italy
Jun 73
.3
11
4
.
14
5
Canada
May 73
10.3
7.5
Cana
da
Jun 73
.
8.1
.
11.4
RETAIL SALES"
(Current Prices)
United States
Jun 73
-0.8
11.0
12.1
-6.'.
Unite
d States
Jui 73 0
4 7
6 6
7 10
8
Japan
Mar 73
4.0
12.9
24.8
45.2
Japan
May 73
.
-0.8
.
19
0
.
30
5
.
26
8
West Germany
Mar 73
-5.7
9.1
5.9
14.2
West
Germany
May 73
-4
2
.
10
2
.
8
4
.
6
13
France
Mar 73
4.1
6.3
7.0
6.7
Franc
e
Mar 73
.
0
8
.
12
5
.
10
0
-
.
-34
United Kingdom
Apr 73
-7.2
9.8
11.2
-3.0
United
Kingdo
m
Apr 73
.
2
2
.
12
2
.
13
1
1
9
Italy
Feb 73
9.0
11.5
18.8
24.1
Italy
Feb 73
.
2
1
.
20
1
.
18
7
..
.
1
5
Canada
May 73
-3.0
10.5
10.5
1.6
Canad
a
May 73
.
2.3
.
14.1
.
17.5
.
2
20.3
Percent Raze of Interest
12 Months 3 Months I Month
Representative Rates Latest Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Prime finance paper
Aug 3 3.25
4.75 6
75 7
63
Japan
Call money
Jul 2,
7.50
4.25
.
5.92
.
6
75
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 months)
Aug :I
14.25
4
75
N. A.
.
14
25
France
Call money
Jul V
8.38
.
3.50
7.02
.
8
50
United Kingdom
Local authority deposits
Jul 27
10.38
4.95
7.28
.
6
32
Canada
Finance pryer
Aug 3
7.r0
5
00
8
25
.
7
25
Euro-Dollars
Three-month deposits
Aug 3
11.44
.
5.38
.
8.50
.
9.81
'Seasonally Adjusted
n Aug 73 ? ,
UNCLASSIFIED
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140026-9