REQUEST FOR APPROVAL OF MANUSCRIPT FOR ORAL PRESENTATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85-00024R000300430005-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2007
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 4, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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4 MAR 1981
M MORANDUM FOR: Executive Officer,
Directorate of Science and Technology
VIA: Acting Director, Foreign Broadcast Information Services
Chief, Analysis Group, FBIS
Chief Analyst, Analysis Group, FBIS
SUBJECT: Request for Approval of Manuscript for Oral
Presentation
1. I request approval to present orally the attached text titled,
"The Politics Behind China's Foreign Policy."
2. When approved, I intend to give the presentation at the
Association for Asian Studies' annual meeting in Toronto, Canada, on
13 March 1981.
3. None of the material presented in the oral presentation is,.
to my knowledge, classified.
4. I am not under cover. I will be identified as an FBIS
employee but will append the standard disclaimer indicating that the
views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of FBIS. .
STAT
STAT
Attachment: two copies of text
I have reviewed the attached text and, to the best of my knowledge
have found it to be.unclassj.4 ed.
0
4 MAR 1981
I have reviewed the attached text and, to the best of my knowledge
have found it to be unclassified, and approve it for oral presentation.
STAT
Executive Officer Date
Directorate of Science & Technology
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SUBJECT: Request for Approval of Manuscript for Oral Presentation
Distribution:
Original and 1 - Executive Officer, DDS$T, w/atts.
1 - DDS&T Registry, wo/atts.
1 - AD/FBIS, w/atts.
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1 - DC/AS/FBIS, wo/atts.
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? ,
THE POLITICS BEHIND CHINA'S FOREIGN POLICY .
F.B.I.S.
(Foreign Broadcast Information Service)
STAT
Roundtable: "Chinese Foreign Policy in the 1980s"
33rd Annual Meeting
Association for Asian Studies
Toronto, Ontario
March 13, 1981
d aft manuscript--not for publication or
attribution without permission of the author.
The views expressed in this paper represent
.the personal views of the author and not
those of any U.S. government organization.
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S
There have been a number of commendable efforts to document debate
in China over foreign policy issues which arose in the past two decades.
In this paper, I present some general propositions regarding the impact
of the Chinese. political process on foreign policy decisions. My views
have been shaped partly by reading about earlier debates, but primarily
are based on my analysis.of developments since Mao's death. By presenting
.these hypotheses along with my assessment of current foreign policy options-
in China, I hope to provide some guidance for understanding how domestic
and international developments may shape China's foreign policy during the
next decade.
Propositions
1. As in every other country, there is nearly constant debate over foreign
policy in China--despite the claims of Chinese leaders to the contrary; al-
though the intensity and importance-of disagreement varies over-time:-=.
2. Domestic and foreign policy approaches become integrated because domestic
issues are linked.by inherent logic with major strategic considerations
involving relations with the U.S. and USSR. These are the foreign policy
issues in which top leaders thus become involved and which are'most affected
by domestic political dynamics. For example, assessments of the severity
and character of the Soviet threat and of the best means of meeting it--
including the trust-worthiness and likely lifespan of the U.S. counter-
balance and the viability of China's own military counterforce--are closely
tied to decisions about the defense share.of the budget, the priority.. to
be given heavy industry, the appropriate degree of both domestic. security
control and economic decentralization, and the importance of ideological'
and political work. Estimates of the value of attracting Western input
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into the Chinese economy relative 'to the dangers' a greater Western in-
fluence in China are related to debate over relaxing press controls, building
a more constitutional and legal government, and giving better treatment to
those with contacts abroad, including ex-capitalists, intellectuals, reli-
gious believers, and those with overseas Chinese connections. Estimates of
the potential for a peaceful reunification with Taiwan and the wisdom of
delaying a resolution of the issue in exchange for better relations with
the Wes.t'are tied in with nearly all of these. other issues.
Debate over these issues often centers on the tradeoffs required
between short-run..and long-run aims. In a nutshell, in the 1.980s Chinese
leaders are debating to what extent it is necessary and productive to rely
on the U.S..strategic counterweight to the Soviet Union and the Western
input into the Chinese economy and at what risk to domestic instability and
the permanent loss of Taiwan and other lesser territorial claims. '
3. Inter-related domestic and foreign policies are forged into policy
"packages" due to the factional nature of Chinese politics. These packages
function somewhat like "campaign platforms" for individual leaders and their
groups of supporters, with whom they become closely identified. Partici-
pants in policy debate use these "platforms" to attract broader support
within the Politburo-level elite which will have an impact-on the final
decisions. For example, a policy package may be "floated" just prior to
a party work conference in order on one hand, to alert. provincial-level
leaders and central government officials to the lines of argument they should
be expected to support and-on the other hand, to determine by watching
the response from central and provincial organs what the. probable lineup
of support will be. After a high-level meeting, similar efforts will-be
made to urge implementation of those decisions of-the meeting one favors
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and obstruct others and then ascertain whether PrVious recalcitrants have
been won over. Foreign policy issues--which are subject to much less wide-
spread discussion and influence than domestic issues--nevertheless are
raised to buttress arguments for the larger package in which the domestic
program is of primary importance for attracting adherents. In this
"campaign" process, policy packages become clearly attributable to individuals
at the top, and efforts by others to share in the glory of his successes
or his own efforts to spread the blame-for acts that end in failure are
largely unsuccessful.-
4. Due to the Prohibition on the use of official channels of communication
'or informal personal contacts for such factional political activities, much
of this "campaigning" is done openly inthc media --albeit bliclue to meet
the requirement for secrecy of policy discussion. Thus, foreign policy
debate becomes evident to outsiders in several ways:
--Differences appear in the ways top leaders treat the official
foreign policy."line" in their public statements as well as in the-ways
the official media deal with those statements, perhaps by giving some prom-
inence and others low coverage or by deleting or including. key phrases in
different versions of the same statements.
For example, since at. least mid-1978 CCP Vice Chairmen Deng Xiaoping
.and. Li Xiannian have differed significantly in their discussion of issues
central to Sino-U.S. relations, suggesting that Deng has been pressing for
major compromises on the Taiwan issue to gain strategic cooperation with
the U.S. while Li has been reluctant to go as far. For instance, in
mid-July 1978 Congressman Wolff revealed that Deng Xiaoping told him during
his visit to Beijing that the CCP could cooperate once again with-the KMT,
as it had in the past, while making none of the standard references to the
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to the probable'need to use force against Taiwan hus implying reunification
would be peaceful. Shortly thereafter, Li repeated the standard references
to force and when asked about possible future cooperation with the KMT con-
tradicted Deng's view that it was possible.* Following Chinese media play
of these issues since then has proved instructive about Deng's progress in
getting his view adopted as official policy.
--Rare indirect references are made to high-level debate over.foreign
policy. For example, a People's Daily editorial of January-19 this year
defended the predominantly Dengist policies passed by the party's Third
Plenum in December 1978 against unnamed domestic ritics. Since that meet-
ing had approved the decision to normalize relations with the U.S., the
editorial's defensive tone in insisting that China's foreign policy "will
not change" implied there is current questioning of policies associated
with China's closer ties with the U.S. Similar defensive editorials earlier
had revealed debate over China's attack on Vietnam. On March 26, 1979,
both the People's Daily and the Liberation Army Daily discussed the matter,
and the army paper defensively proclaimed that the punitive attack was a
"just war" and "it would not do if we had not fought it."
--Anomalous foreign policy incidents sometimes occur which the
Chinese foreign affairs apparatus has difficulty handling and explaining.
For example, in April 1978 just prior to conclusion of the Sino-Japanese
Peace and Friendship Treaty, armed Chinese fishing boats converged on the
Senkaku Islands--controlled by Japan but claimed by China as well. This
caused an uproar in Japan over an issue some Chinese leaders--most notably
Deng Xiaoping--repeatedly had tried to "table" in order to improve Sino-
Japanese relations. The incident was smoothed over with difficulty but has
never been satisfactorily explained, andit suggests that some elements of
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the Chinese leadership were afraid the treat signTFig would undercut China's
claims to the territory and purposely tried to force attention to the issue
at the last moment.
--The foreign policy "line" on an issue sometimes changes in ways
not clearly explainable by events. For instance, there have been anomalies
in China's public expressions of support for North Korean positions during
the past few years which suggest PRC leaders are having difficulty resolving
the incompatible imperatives of developing U.S.-China relations and support-
ting the DPRK in order to preclude Soviet gains in influence in Pyongyang.
A 9 September 1979 People's Daily editorial omitted the usual references
toa U.S. troop pullout of South Korea, to support for reunification, and to
criticism of the South Korean regime--references which have reappeared since
then, although still without the stridency given them by the DPRK. It
thus seems probable that PRC leadership debate over the compromises in-
volved in Sino-U.S. detente extend to treatment of relations with North Korea.
--Media articles appear which use historical allegories or analogies
to discuss foreign policy issues of current relevance. Key themes from
Chinese history have been used in the early 1960s,. in the Cultural Revolution,
in the mid-1970s, and again in the post-Mao era. At each period of time,
recurring lines of argument have been given specific current resonance in
order to defend or attack individuals then in power and their foreign
policy preferences. For example, debate over whether the Boxer Rebellion
was anti-imperialist and revolutionary or purely xenophobic and reactionary
as well as debate over whether Li Hongzhang and other late nineteenth
century modernizers were patriotic or traitorous in their reform efforts to
adapt Western ways and technology to China have both been vehicles for
disagreement over China's political and economic relationship with the West.
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Media.re!rences to China's past historil relationship with
northern barbarians and to early Soviet Russia's peace treaty with Germany,
signed at Brest-Litovsk in 1918, have both been used to discuss the relative
risks and gains of opposing or accomodating the USSR. Recollection of past
CCP experiences with the US and the Nationalists has been symptomatic of
debate over policy toward Taiwan. Allegories on all these themes with
clear current relevance have appeared as late as last month. In the past two
years, another similar means of discussing foreign policy has been more
frequent than in the past. Media articles rehabilitating Chinese leaders purged
during the Cultural Revolution either explicitly or implicitly have exon-
erated the views they held on foreign affairs and thus removed former
strictures against certain foreign policy options in current deliberations.
Analysis of these media. revelations of foreign policy debate must
be kept quite close to the domestic political context. A. sense of-the
relative strengths of contending groups and their access to the propaganda
department and individual media organs is essential. For example, Guangming
Daily and professional journals like HIstorical Research are heavily in-
fluenced by the pro-Deng Xiaoping Academy of Social Sciences and are likely
to reflect his views, but give biased interpretations of the views of Deng's
critics. Moreover, since these critics have had less ready access'to the
media in general since 1978, we can ascertain their views only from defenses
against them. Evidence of disagreement in People's 221.1y and Red Flag,
especially in editorials, which are supposed to present a party consensus
view, will mean debate is significant but since it will appear as ambiguity
resulting from the patching together of contradictory points of view, the
lines of argument will not likely be revealed.
One must also take care to determine whether a foreign policy decision
is being discussed prior to a meeting--in which case our own actions might
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influence the outcome--or is being reviewed later for other purposes. For
example, evidence of disagreement in late March 1979 over the earlier attack
on Vietnam, read in its proper context, was not debate over whether to
attack again but part of a larger critique of the underlying assumptions
behind the first attack; the foreign policy decision at stake was rather
how far to carry the overtures to the Soviet Union then underway. Another
example would be allegories since 1978 rehashing Cultural Rev6l'ut-i-on -era
arguments over foreign policy actions of Peng Dehuai and Liu Shaoqi which
are connected primarily to,efforts to exonerate them and return to their
domestic policies. It is difficult therefore to determine whether there is
equally heated debate over whether to adopt foreign policies similar to Liu's.
Other evidence must be carefully considered. For example, when proponents
of a policy proposal in the early 1960s to reconcile differences with the
USSR were exonerated just two days after the PRC proposed to open talks to
improve relations with the USSR-in early 1979, it became difficult to-argue.-
the two events were mere coincidence rather.than related results of foreign
policy Cscussion.
Dui. t?o -
5./ th the pronib"iticn against facticralism and the "campaign" nature of
discussion of policy,packages are argued in exaggerated terms." Adhefents
of a package must prove their proposals are presented in the interests
of the nation, not of thei-r faction, and` in order to win the argument, tend
to exaggerate the urgency of adopting their policies over others in order
to "save the nation." Thus, one set of policies is presented as "patriotic"
and its alternative as "capitulationist." Moreover, given China's commitment
to Marxist solutions to problems, policy options must be presented. also in
the language of orthodoxy. Arguments on behalf of policy programs are but-
tressed with quotations and examples from the history of Marxism, Western
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and Chinese. In eneral, in this competitive at phere, the benefits
and risks of a given policy package--including its foreign policy components--
easily become exaggerated.
6. When a single element of a policy package is criticized due to obvious
failure or emergence of problems in implementation, the whole package tends
to be called into question. Domestic developments normally carry greater
weight in opening up debate, determining the credibility of a package and
affecting the power of its proponents. Thus, a decisive shift in the
power balance through the purge or death of a top leader such as Mao
opens up debate across the board once the transition period is over.
Lesser events, such as the incidents of political disruption which occurred
in China in,early 1979 and again in late 1980 attributable to Deng's advo-
cacy of democracy, can also open discussion of the whole package, as in
March 1979 and December 1980.
International events, however, can usually be interpreted differently--
partly because of their complexity--and assessments can be tailored to
support preferred domestic programs. At most, foreign events like problems
involved in the. attack on Vietnam.will be used to buttress calls for reasses-
ment engendered by domestic developments. Only events of great import can.
trigger major debate, decisively "prove" one view superior to another and great-
ly affect the domestic power balance. The most obvious examples include the
Soviet invasions of Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Afghanistan in 1979 which
swayed argument in favor of those who stressed the risks of accomodating
the USSR-and advocated closer alignment with the US.
7. The constantly shifting domestic balance of power--even when a major
power change is not underway--plays an important part in the timing and
the nature of action in the international arena. For example, China's
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E- recent shrill reaction to the Netherlands' decision to sell sub-
marines to Taiwan and to Taipei's claim to have received official invita-
tions to the Reagan inauguration--at a time when it had appeared the Chin-
ese would rather "wait and see" how the new Administration's China policy
evolved--may be explained by the fact that Deng Xiaopi g's whole policy
package had again come unraveled in late December, bringincritical
attention to evidence-that his compromise approach,to the Taiwan issue
.was helping Taipei strengthen its international posture.
Current 0 tions for Foreign Policy Strategy
From mid-1978 through mid-1979, international events and domestic
politics interacted in such a way as to reveal the existence of competing
policy packages with quite different foreign policy implications. This
period, and the debate over policy involved, have been discussed in detail
in other papers, so I intend only to summarize these programs as I see them
and then discuss recent evidence suggesting the likely evotuion=into--the-
1980s of debate over these options in the wake of the Soviet invasion-of
Afghanistan.
The divergence'of views among the Chinese leadership centers on
how to deal with the Soviet Union and stems from differing evaluations of
the requirements of China's modernization effort in an uncertain internation-
al environment. One viewpoint, associated most prominently with Deng Xiao-
ping, began to emerge in the Spring of 1978, as Deng consolidated his polit-
ical, position and regained a dominant role in foreign policy. His view
stresses that China is threatened rather immediately by an implacably
aggressive Soviet Union at a time of serious-economic backwardness and mil-
itary weakness. To ensure China's survival and progress in these circum-
stances, Deng has urged a rapid, all-out economic development effort and
drastic political reform at home combined with bold efforts to curtail
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Soviet influence abroad in concert with the U.S. and its allies.
This assessment accounts for Deng's far-reaching domestic reform
efforts to remove the constraints of Maoist dogma from policy formulation,
purge officials committed to Maoist policies and promote those willing
to adopt Deng's pragmatic, technocratic approach to boosting production
through an increased role for the market mechanism, as.well as to implant
a more rigorously legal and democratic political system which wi-Tl-be more
responsive to such efforts. Since Deng believes the West offers the?g atest
potential for economic and technological support for such a rapid modern-
ization effort--including in defense--as well as the strategic counter-
balance needed to assure China's security for the duration, he has been the
foremost proponent for closer ties of?a "long-term strategic"nature,
approaching an alliance, with the U.S. and its allies. Thus, his liberal
domestic reforms are formulated with one eye on attracting such foreign
which aims to
support, and making credible his approach to Taiwan/encourag 2 eventual
peaceful reunification through negotiations.
To stress the urgency of domestic reform and developing ties with
the West, Deng has been foremost among the leadership in pointing out the re-
lentless and global character of the threat of Soviet expansion which requires both
combined international action. to meet it and the maintenance of Beijing's
traditional hardline approach in bilateral relations with Moscow. In his
view, efforts to conciliate the USSR would be dangerous both in that they
would frighten off would-be friends in the West who fear the monolithic
Communist bloc may be reconstituted and would invite aggression because
the Soviets "bully the weak and fear the strong."
Chinese leaders like Chen Yun, Ye Jianying and Li Xiannian, who
may be described as moderate or centrist, tend to disagree with some or
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all of Deng's policy package. Their competing views began to emerge
in the wake of China's attack-on Vietnam in early 1979 when Deng's
domestic reforms had led to incidents of social disruption and his foreign
policy to a high state of tension with the USSR. These leaders do not
endorse Deng's program of far-reaching reform either out of ideological
reservationsand concern for their own political interests or because
they fear the potentially destabilizing economic and political effects.
Instead they urge a more cautious gradual approach in the interests of
"stability and unity. In particular, they believe China's economic state
is so serious that it can neither afford to "buy modernization" from the
West nor manage to absorb a massive Western input. Moreover, they believe
the harmful social effects of a larger Western presence would outweigh
the economic benefits. They propose instead a slower, indigenous growth
of the civilian economy--with heavy defense cuts.
In foreign policy,, these leaders argue that given the -likely : ---
long-term state of China's weakness, it cannot afford to actively antagon-
ize an aggressive Soviet Union. Such leaders worry that the U.S. may
prove unreliable as a counterweight to the USSR or even that the U.S.
might use China's cooperation to put it on the front line. They want,
instead, to introduce a degree of detente into Sino-Soviet relations--
stopping well short of rapprochement, but at least achieving a more
neutral posture in the case of superpower confrontation. Given the
greater mistrust.of the US, and lesser need for the U.S. implicit in their
approach, such leaders are less -willing to compromise with. the U.S. over
Taiwan or to delay movement toward reunification. They may also see-
some logic to "playing" China's "Soviet card" to induce U.S. adherence
to Chinese interests in a number of areas, including Taiwan.
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This alternative approach was pursued br fly in Spring 1979
when China opened bilateral talks with the USSR, but ground to a halt as
Deng recovered lost political ground later that summer. The Soviet invasion
of Afghanistan served to strengthen once again Deng's argument for stra-
tegic cooperation with the West, and Chen Yun's views in both domestic and.
foreign affairs receded into the background through 1980. Just now, how-
ever, we are seeing a resurgence of Chen Yun's insistence on-the absolute
necessity of severe economic retrenchment, enforced political stab l -ty,
and delays in Deng.'s reform program. Evidence too of a.Chen Yun argument
in foreign affairs has again reemerged in the media, indicating it will
continue to be a live option in the 1980s.
Since a party work conference. in late December last year, there
has been widespread evidence in the media that Deng's policy package was
reopened to questioning and a change in line effected in domestic policies..
People's Daily editorials have painfully argued that Deng's policies have
just been delayed,not overturned,and that his foreign policy strategy will
not change. The media suggests, however, that Deng's critics are still
trying to reopen foreign policy issues to further discussion and change
prior to the party's upcoming sixth plenum.
The fact of debate over foreign policy was inadvertently revealed
in a defensive T9 January People's Daily editorial which in insisting on
the continuing viability of the Dengist policy package. ratified by
the 1978 third plenum--which included normalization of relations with the
U.S.--argued that ''policies such as our economic policy of opening up to
foreign countries on the premise of independence and self-reliance, our
foreign policy insisting.on opposing hegemonism and safeguarding world
peace and. so forth...will not change." That Sino-Soviet relations
are again at stake was suggested in a long discussion in a 4 February
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Workers' Daily article of the past contributions to the party by deceased
party elder Wang Jiaxiang, first ambassador to Moscow and pre-Cultural
Revolution head of the International Liaison Department. Wang was first
exonerated in April 1979/two days after China proposed talks with the USSR
to improve relations--in an article in. the same newspaper which said
Wang'.s -early 1960s proposal to moderate hostilities toward the USSR.'
(along with the U.S. and other potential enemies) was a reasonable option
at a time of..economic difficulties (similar to those China now faces).
The 1981 repetition of this appraisal of'Wang's views, written by several
currently high-ranking officials with influence in foreign affairs, in a
political environment strikingly similar to early 1979, was phrased in
14ang's argument
most suggestive terms. The article quoted/that "It is better to adopt
a moderate policy in foreign affairs in order to work against time to
tide over difficulties and quicken accomplishment of our country's soc-
ialist construction... During the struggle against imperialism, revision----
ism and reaction, we should pay attention to strategy and tactics, guard
against diverting a local war to our country and avoid being taken as the
main target of attack..." The article's many pointed references to the
fact that Wang's views have often been right in the past, but were not pur-
sued by the leadership seemed to suggest that Wang's proposed approach
F------ is once again--wrongly--being overruled.
Other recent media references defending Lenin's signing of the
Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918--at a time of economic chaos and intern-
ational danger--suggest that the Chinese-leadership is debating whether
to reopen Sino-Soviet talks, perhaps under secret Soviet prodding. An
article titled "Advance and Retreat" in Red Flag's first4issue this year
defended the new economic retrenchment as a necessary antidote to impe-
tuous and rash methods which exceeded objective possibility. To bolster
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. its argument, the article pointed out how the Treaty-of Brest was necessary--
despite its "regressive" nature--in order to give the "exhausted" state
.an opportunity to regain its breath" in order to "consolidate the
proletarian regime, maintain the proletarian leadership over the peasants,
readjust its economy, build its Red Army to defeat the White Army and the
foreign armed meddlers and stand rock-firm."
The reference to the Russian Civil War and foreign meddlers in
Red Flag may have had current relevanceto debate over how to handle the
problem of. Taiwan, just as the. other references have obvious relevance
for current Chinese concern about party control and economic recovery.
An article in People's Daily on 8 January, in discussing a section from
the new publication of Zhou Enlai's works, pointedly insisted "we should...
learn from" a proposal of Zhou's in 1927 to repudiate the Soviet-sponsored
alliance between the CCP and the KMT and attack Chiang Kaishek in the
wake of his annihilation of Shanghai's communists earlier that year.
According to the article, the party wrongly assessed that following Zhou's
suggestion would bring in imperialist support for Chiang and thus spell
.certain defeat, while reducing the chances for aid from Moscow. The
article thus seemed to imply that today China should use the threat of force
against Taipei rather than "hesitate, intending to settle by relaxation
or preparing for long-term struggle"--an approach which would only re-
0
s.ult in "Chiang's political power-becoming more consolidated and his
relationship with the imperialist powers gradually growing closer." The
article seemed to.argue that-if China were to deal more harshly with Chiang
(Ching-kuo), the U.S. would not back him and that any U.S. aid to the PRC
which would be.risked through this approach was either not forthcoming in
any case, or was not needed. The article concluded with the argument
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that "we should rely on the people's revolutiona strength but should not
rely on foreign assistance to find solutions-to problems when we are in
a difficult situation."
Such insistence-on "self-reliance" with its distinctively xeno-
phobic flavor has of course characterized debate in China over how much
to involve China in the international Western economy throughout the 1970s,
with deeper roots in the bitter 1950s experience with the-Soviet Union and
in the -anti -imperialism of the late nineteenth century. Other simil-ar
recent media references strengthen the conclusion that debate has.again
broken out on this sensitive subject.
This People's Daily article
nderscored the importance of current debate.when it
insisted the 1927-debate was "not a manifestation of the controversy
over policy, but was in fact a Struggle between two different strategic
ideologies... related to finding a path for the revolution." Like the
article on Wang Jiaxiang, the theme of this piece reminded the reader of
a minority opinion which proved later to be right but which was wrongly
overruled at the time, thus suggesting that Deng's critics are still
being overruled, but are arguing for reopening of discussion.
Prospects for the'l980s
The ways in which domestic political dynamics have influenced
the course of debate over foreign policy in the recent past suggest :several
developments. will be important for the course of Chinese foreign
policy in the 1980s:
--The removal through death of top leaders involved in these
debates, including Deng, Chen, Li, and Ye, will have an important impact
on-the policy packages adopted. As with Mao and Zhou, the order of their
deaths will significantly influence who from the next generation emerges
at the top, and the relative stability or instability of the succession..
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The several potential. successors now visible--H.u Yaobang and
Wan Li (close to Deng), Hua Guofeng (backed by Ye Jianying),and Zhao
Ziyang (a seeming compromise candidate), each have political weaknesses,
especially in gaining the backing of the military, and none have much
foreign affairs experience or influence. No second-echelon leader with
foreign affairs experience--such as Geng Biao--is a potential political
force or is being allowed involvement in top foreign policy decisions.
--The economic-situation will.prove critical in swaying foreign
policy:preferences. The go-slow approach is sensible but unpopular and
may prove to represent only stagnation, not the slow sure progress it
claims. Neith"er.caution nor exuberance have proven capable of solving
intractable problems and swings in policy are likely, contributing to
complementary shifts in foreign policy.
--The working out of evident civil-military tensions too may prove
quite important to foreign policy, given the evidence with regard-to--
Vietnam, the Senkakus, and Taiwan,.that an influential group favors more
militant approaches .to foreign policy matters.
--Outside events will be important. Soviet policy toward China
may change in the period surrounding Brezhnev's demise. If an openness
to improving relations on China's part happend to coincide with an open-
ness on the Soviet side, progress in decreasing the debilitating.hostil-
ity between the two may gather momentum. The new U.S. administration's
policy toward the USSR and toward China, including its dealings with
Taiwan, as well as developments on Taiwan at the time.of CCK':s death,
will'be important to China's assessment of,its options.
While some of. these events may. be some time ahead of us, evidence
of hot debate in China now suggests a turning point in Chinese policy
choices may come sooner rather than later. The timing and combination
of domestic and foreign events will.prove key to those choices.
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