NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 6 JANUARY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000100010015-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 15
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
6 January 1982
Top Secret
CO NIDC 82-004C
Copy 4 19
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Poland: Debt Problems Unresolved . . . . . . . . . . . . i
Libya-Ghana: Overture Planned . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Italy-Poland: Communist Party Criticism. . . . . . . . . 2
Western Europe: Growing Unemployment Problem . . . . . . 3
NATO: Canada Approves Spanish Accession. . . . . . . . . 4
Israel: Government Presence in East Jerusalem. . . . . . 4
South Africa: Prosecuting Mercenaries. . . . . . . . . . 5
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A Polish official has denied media reports that Poland has met
its interest payments to Western banks. The government, meanwhile,
is trying to create the impression that it is holding talks with
Solidarity and has dissolved a student organization close to the
union. Some Polish military units that were called on to implement
martial law are preparing to return to their garrisons.
The vice president of the Polish Commercial Bank
yesterday denied reports that Moscow recently helped the
Poles meet interest payments due Western banks and indi-
cated that he did not expect Soviet funds in the near
The debt rescheduling agreement between Poland and
Western banks called for all interest due through
14 December to be paid. On that date Poland indicated
it was still unable to come up with $350 million of the
amount due. Warsaw apparently paid about $100 million
in the final week of December, and additional payments
have been reported by banks in the past few days.
The patience of the Western banks determines how
long Warsaw has to meet the remainder of its obligations.
Poland has avoided default despite failing to meet sev-
eral deadlines and conditions set by the banks, but
the risk increases that a single creditor will declare
//Major Western banks are scheduled to meet tomorrow
and on Friday in London to discuss the reschedulin
impasse.
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Warsaw's most immediate financial problem is to wrap
up the private debt rescheduling agreement for 1981, but
even if that is concluded Poland still will be technically
in default. Negotiations for debt relief from Western
governments and banks for 1982 have not yet begun.
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Polish radio yesterday reported that the government
was holding talks with Solidarity "activists." It is
unlikely that any of the union's prominent leaders before
martial law were involved. The regime, however, has had
some success in finding lower level union officials who
are willing to recant.
The government probably hopes to confuse the popu-
lation with such reports and may be thinking of creating
a new but passive Solidarity. Warsaw also has formally
abolished the Independent Student Organization, Soli-
darity's equivalent on campus.
According to Moscow Radio, Polish Foreign Minister
Czyrek will visit Moscow in the first half of this month.
Since Czyrek probably cannot provide the Soviets addi-
tional insights concerning the present situation, the
purpose for the trip may be only to continue a long tra-
dition of formal bilateral exchanges held at this time
of year.
In an article commemorating the 40th anniversary of
the birth of the Polish Communist Party, Pravda yesterday
again reminded Premier Jaruzelski that the party's su-
premacy must at some time be restored. Pravda highlighted
an earlier statement by Jaruzelski regarding the special
role of the party under martial law and pointedly employed
his party title.
P_ M
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//Libya apparently is attempti to make its irst contact with
Ghana's new military government.//
Although Qadhafi is pleased with the overthrow of
President Limann's moderate, pro-Western government, no
hard evidence is available of direct Libyan involvement
in Rawlings's latest coup.
As political and economic pressures mount on the
shaky new regime, Rawlings may be forced to turn to
Libya and other radical African states for support.
Rawlings is known to have some radical advisers who are
urging him to adopt such a policy.
Shortly after Rawlings's coup in June 1979, he re-
buffed the overtures of a Libyan delegation, but after
relinquishing power four months later he maintained loose
contacts with Tripoli. In September 1980, Raw s
visited Libya and seemed favorably impressed.
Rawlings's flirtation with Tripoli helped prompt
the Limann government to expel the Libyan People's Bureau
from Accra and to conclude that Rawlings was receiving
funds from Libya. The Libyans had been urging the Limann
government to allow them to reestablish diplomatic rep-
resentation, and they may hope their offers of aid will
enable them to reopen their offices soon.
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ITALY-POLAND: Communist Party Criticism
//The Italian Communist Party's condemnation last week of events
in Poland was its harshest indictment of the Soviet system to date,
but it will be some time before the implications for relations be-
tween the party and the Soviets and for domes
tic affairs beco
me
clear.//
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//Italian Communist leaders tried to reconcile con-
flicting demands, underscoring their own democratic pre-
tensions with the public while trying to avoid creating
irreparable divisions in the party. Most of them are
still reluctant to raise the possibility of a break with
the Soviets for fear of losing the 25 percent of the
rank and file that remain committed to Moscow. They
have begun an extensive campaign to explain their posi-
tion on Poland to the party membership.//
//The Soviet Ambassador to Rome has publicly stated
Moscow's disapproval of the Italian party's statement.
The Czechoslovak press for the first time is criticizing
Party Chief Berlinguer personally for opportunism and
"reactionary Atlanticist" views.//
//The left-leaning national dailies interpret the
party statement either as another major step away from
the Soviets or as an open break. The moderate and right-
leaning press, however, is either criticizing the Com-
munist Party for being slow to develop its position, or
is emphasizing the statement's ambiguities.//
//The party stand on Poland is likely to complicate
the maneuvering among the five parties that support the
government of Prime Minister Spadolini. Socialist leader
Craxi is exploiting the Communists' dilemma to gain new
support for his party by denouncing the statement as
weak and contradictory.//
//Christian Democratic Party Secretary Piccoli is
suggesting that the time has come for another look at
"the Communist question," probably hoping to strengthen
his support among the left wing of his own party and
dampen Craxi's interest in early elections. Even raising
"the Communist question," however, will further strain
the coalition, which is struggling to cope with the kid-
naping of General Dozier and with the troubled economy.//
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WESTERN EUROPE: Growing Unemployment Problem
//The grim unemployment outlook will make a West European deci-
sion to impose economic sanctions on Poland or the USSR all the
more difficult.//
//Jobless ranks in Western Europe have increased over
the past 18 months to more than 10 million workers, and
rising public sector deficits will constrain governments
in introducing job-creating measures. Economic sanctions
probably would lead to a drop in production and more unem-
ployment, particu1ar1v ;n the hard-hit steel and machinery
industries.//
labor force growth will continue through the mid-1980s,
and unemployment could continue rising through 1985.//
//Unemployment in Western Europe will rise at least
through 1982. The OECD recently forecast that average
unemployment among its European members will increase
from 9.1 percent in the second half of this year to 9.9
percent in the first half of 1983. The period of rapid
A major shift to expansionary monetary and fiscal
policies to encourage new business and employment would
increase still-high inflation rates while adding to
balance-of-payments problems. The French experiment with
expansion will be watched closely by others anxious to see
what the trade-offs are. Other possible steps include
subsidizing employers who take on additional workers,
lowering min' in real terms, and encouraging
job-sharing.
Some measures to increase employment may require the
cooperation of business and labor. Unions in West Germany
have hinted at reducing wage demands in exchange for gov-
ernment action to create jobs, while in Spain unions and the
employers' association have agreed to swap a reduction in
real wages for an increase in employment. The policies
actually adopted will vary greatly, depending on the
political leanings of the parties in power as well as on
the economic constraints under which they are operating.
//Over the long term, however, Western Europe may face
a labor shortage. By the end of the decade, labor growth
will almost cease in Italy, Switzerland, and Denmark; in
West Germany, a long-term decline will begin. Many of the
steps that might reduce unemployment now--a lower retire-
ment age, longer vacations, a shorter workweek--could
backfire a decade from now by aggravating labor shortages.//
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NATO: Canada Approves Spanish Accession
//Canada has become the first member of NATO to rat-
ify Spain's accession to the Alliance, but delays in
West Germany spell trouble for the Spanish application.
Unlike most other NATO countries, Canada's ratification
only required cabinet approval and not parliamentary
action. West Germany Foreign Office officials, however,
say that while favorable action on Spanish entry is as-
sured, their complicated constitutional process and
built-in bureaucratic hurdles mean there is little pos-
sibility that Spain's accession will be ratified in Bonn
before NATO's ministerial meetings in May.//
Delays in West Germany would open
the door for Greece and the Netherlands, which previously
had raised procedural objections to Spanish entry, to
draw out their own ratification procedures. Prolonged
public debate over Madrid's application in Athens, The
Hague, or other Allied capitals, would embarrass the
Spanish Government, heighten domestic opposition to NATO
membership in Spain and perhaps lead Madrid to withdraw
its application.//
//Israel is continuing its efforts to strengthen its
claim to sovereignty over a unified Jerusalem by moving
government offices to areas of the city occupied in 1967.
One ministry moved its headquarters to East Jerusalem
this week, and according to press sources, others will
follow later this year. International pressure appar-
ently persuaded Prime Minister Begin in the summer of
1980 to set aside plans to transfer his office from West
Jerusalem. Begin maintains a suite in a recently com-
pleted office complex in East Jerusalem, however, and
could make the move with little notice.//
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SOUTH AFRICA: Prosecuting Mercenaries
By issuing warrants yesterday for the arrest of all
mercenaries involved in the hijacking of an Air India
airliner to Durban following the recent attempted coup
in Seychelles Pretoria is showing sensitivity to Western
criticism of its failure to implement its own policies
against international terrorists. South Africa has thus
reversed its initial decision to release outright most
of the mercenaries and charge only the leaders with kid-
naping. They will now be tried on the more serious
charge of hijacking.
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