RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001603990009-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 9, 2007
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: July 19, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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E. R. ZUMWALT, JR.
ADMIRAL. U. S. NAVY (RET.)
19 July 1982
Mr. William J. Casey
Director
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D.C. 20505
Dear Bill:
I attach a document provided to me by
prior to the later intelligence I
you n concerning Kuwait.
Your staff may be interested in his insights.
Sincerely,
t
E. R. Zumwalt, Jr.
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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN
"Ghadsieh" is what the Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein, calls the war of
Arabs against Persians (Iranians), referring to the historical 7th century battle
in which the Moselm Arabs defeated the Persians and destroyed their civilization
and great empire. His mistakes leading to defeat are:
- Historical: Contrary to Saddam Hussein's belief in that war Persians
were defending the Iraqi mainland, then a part of the Persian empire, against
the Arab invaders from the south.
- Strategic: By reviving the old enmity, Saddam Hussein aroused the strong
nationalistic sentiments of Iranians in defense of their homeland. This indirectly
bolstered Khomeini's regime. In my position paper in September 1979, I had pointed
out that Iranian nationalism is strong and should not be allowed to be used in
favor of Khomeini or communists. The leftists in Iran are fully aware of this and
time and again have been announcing that "we are the nationalistic leftists and do
not look towards Moscow! A few days ago hundreds of thousands of leaflets were
distributed by the Communist Tudeh Party in Teheran, again emphasizing that they
do not look to Moscow. So far their tactic has been to co-exist with Khomeini.
"We will come out from under his robe when the time comes and get control of
government in 48 hours," said a member recently.
- Tactical: With ten divisions, superiority in arms and after gaining
surprise, the Iraqis stopped to dig in after the initial victories. This made
them a sitting duck, a blessing to the Iranians who, in the words of "Sun Tsu,"
used position cleverly, avoiding enemy strength and attacking his points of
weakness in their choice of time and place. In the first 19 hours the Iranian
army did not fight, thinking the attackers were units of the Iranian National
Liberation Force. Many were casualties or made captives. Yet it is interesting
to note that losing initiative or aggressiveness brought defeat in two other
parallel wars, the Falklands and Lebanon.
-- Political: Saddam Hussein underestimated his vulnerabilities: Shi'ite
soldiers under Sunni officers; Shi'ite's majority of the population and
fundamentalists; Baath Party rivalries; President Adad's personal enemy, Israel;
Kremlin's anger and grievances from the past; Gulf states' hidden resentments, etc.
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THE WAR
Iraqis claim they have unilaterally retreated to the borderline, and Iranians
deny this. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the speaker, said that they have only fled from
their vulnerable positions and have kept their strongholds. Khomeini's conditions
to stop the war are hardly acceptable to Iraq. They are:
- Complete withdrawal to the borderline
- Reparations of $150 billion
- Return to Iraq of 60-100 thousand people thrown out of Iraq
(pro-Khomeini elements)
- Passage for Iranian forces to Syria, to fight Israel
- Saddam's removal and punishment
- Those conditions will not be demanded if the "Islamic Republic of
Iraq" is created.
.In the past few months a group of Iranians, Syrians, Libyans, Iraqi dissidents,
including two sons of Ayatollah Hakim, have been busy in Teheran's Parliament
building, preparing the "Constitution of Islamic Republic of Iraq." The young
Hakim is Iran's nominee, and Iraqi dissident army officer Naghib is Syria's
candidate for the Iraqi presidency, resulting in a sharp difference of views.
WILL IRAN STOP AT BORDER
With the above conditions for ending the war and reparations, it is unlikely.
There is harsh criticism in Iran of the recent news that Iran has promised the
United States she will not cross the border. "Are we the stooge of U.S.?" the
critics say. Reports are that already the order to cross has been issued and
preparations are underway. A force of 180,000 will be commited to the task
(80,000 front line, 100,000 tactical reserve) and the code name for the operation
is "Ya Ali." (Ali is the first imam of Shi'ites.) (This information was first
reported to U.S. sources by me in early June 1982.) According to reports their
aims are:
- Capture the airfields of Mosul and Kirkuk in northern Iraq. This will
give them a full hand on sitting down to the negotiating table. It will guarantee
the payments of war reparations. It will connect Iran to Syria. It will bolster
Iraqi Kurds in fighting against the central government.
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- Capture Karbela and Najef, two holy shrines of the Shi'ites in
Southern Iraq. This is strongly demanded by mullas and fundamentalists. Already
in Iran's "Khusistan" signs were erected, "Baghdad or Karbela kilometers,"
at various distances. Recently Iran has announced that "Karbela leads to
Jerusalem." "We ultimately will free Jerusalem." "Basra is on the way to Karbela."
- If for any reason such as the army's reported negative stand they
postpone the attack, it will be temporary and immediately subversive operations
will start in Iraq and other Gulf states. Iranian leaders have announced, "We
have three enemies, U.S., Israel, and Fahd." Recently they announced "Countries
send condolences to Saudi Arabia on death of King Khalid. We send our condolences
to the people of Arabia upon nomination of Prince Fahd as king."
- The animosity demonstrated by Iran's bitter attacks on the Gulf states
that thus far have supported Iraq in her war, pouring some $24 billion into her
treasury, will not be ameliorated even by the Gulf states' recent announcement
that they will pay $25 billion to Iran to achieve peace. In late 1978/early 1979,
wealthy Iranians competed with each other in the amount of payments made to
Khomeini, hoping to receive his future blessings. Most were repaid in later
months by imprisonment, confiscation of property, and firing squads. This will
be the fate of those Gulf states who try to escape Khomeini 's revenge by paying
ransom. Before doing this, they better study his character, ideology, and
behavior in the past. The revenge will come.
RELATIONS WITH SYRIA
Iran announced its war against Israel and immediately sent some 1-3000
volunteer forces via Turkey to Damascus. By the time they arrived and started
demonstrations in that capital, a cease fire already was in force- This resulted
in some bitterness. Hejaz, a member of the Iranian Parliament, declared, "Iran
alone will continue the war. Those three million Israelis have never had a real
resistance in front of them. They are afraid of death and if they truly sense
the danger, they will escape to where they have come from." The other apparent
friction with Syria, is the future replacement of Iraq's President, mentioned
earlier. But on the whole relations are good. Syrians are training the
revolutionary "Pasdaran" to pilot MIGs, possible future planes of the Iranian
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Air Force. The existing Air Force personnel, though, were decisive elements in
bringing Khomeini to power and are not to be trusted by anti-Khomeini leaders.
U.S. made planes, 175s, F4s, F14s, are not desired by Iran.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN
To "Pasdaranize" the armed forces, attentions are now focused. on the Navy.
Apparently Iranian leaders are aware of their vulnerability from the sea; their
lifeline, oil exports, other trade, etc. Because naval forces at sea are free
to move, and because of lack of trust in the navy leaders and men, trained in
the U.S. and Western Europe, there has resulted a creation of a navy for "Pasdaran."
Already a team of Pasdaran has arrived in Italy to discuss the procurement of
various naval vessels, equipped with guns and missiles and electronic sensors and
systems as the backbone of this new navy. Initial numbers of Pasdaran to undergo
training will be 1,000. The idea was suggested by communist Tudeh Party elements
within the government.
The Tudeh Party's influence is seen everywhere, especially in aid centers
and installations, Ministry of Trade and among workers. In a meeting of the
High Defense Committee on June 27, the crackdown on the Tudeh Party was discussed.
Although General Zahirnejad, the head of General Staff, was in favor and a list
of names was even produced, Hashemi Rafsanjani, the speaker, made a strong stand
reasoning that Iran cannot fight with both superpowers at the same time, and thus
the plan was shelved. Recently he openly has shown pro-Russian stands and backing
of Tudeh Party on various occasions. Military contacts inside believe he has been
somehow intimidated. His standing against U.S. has also changed from mild to hard.
The Tudeh Party's penetration in Pasdaran is alarming. It has resulted in divisions
among Pasdaran. Government seems to be doing nothing. The exception is that they
have brought in gendarmery and stationed them close to Pasdaran.
A report of J 2 to Chief of Staff (we passed a copy to U.S. authorities some
time ago) indicates that elements of KGB are operating at will. There is only
limited control in Teheran and no control in other states and cities.
The recent announcement of Iran/Libya forming the "Joint Islamic Liberation
Army" and joint efforts in news agency training, etc., indicates the terrorists
are on the move. It is hard to believe that the axis Teheran/Damascus/Tripoli/
Aden somehow is not linked to Moscow.
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Other important areas in which the Tudeh Party is active are:
- National radio and television. Newspapers -- Ettelaat-Kayham.
- Oil company as mentioned before. Nine out of 34 top managers of the
company are active members of Tudeh Party.
- Ministry of Labor and Heavy Industry, headed by an old leftist,
Behzad Nabani.
- Pasdaran: The highest Tudeh activity is centered here. Pasdaran
are the only forces that under existing circumstances can make a coup. The
forces of Pasdaran are rapidly. increasing. The Ministry of Pasdaran is being
formed. They will replace the existing armed forces in few years time. The
Soviets' hand can be seen behind all these changes. The leftists have stressed
that Pasdaran should have all three branches: army, navy, and air force. Their
army and air force will have Soviet equipment; for example in the months of
April/May 1982, six jumbo jets have been active in bringing military equipment
from USSR.
Flights 1 2
Depart 4-3 5-4
Arrive 4-4 5-5
3 4 5 6
5-7 5-11 5-14 5-18
5-8 5-12 5-15 5-19
Sixty advisors have arrived for training of the military personnel on equipment
brought in. Pictures have arrived showing Russian advisors teaching Pasdarans.
(A few months ago a copy of an agreement between Iran and USSR for provision of
military advisors was handed over to U.S. authorities.)
As to the air force, in addition to Syrians, Libyans are also training
Pasdaran pilots in MIGs. Sixty have been sent to Libya. Pakistan is training
them on F5s for the interim period.
THE NAVY
Reports not yet confirmed indicate that on June 4, 1982 an agreement was signed
between the commander Pasdaran force and the Italian naval attache for the
procurement of following ships:
- 80 fast boats, 13 meters in length, equipped with 12.77 mm machine
guns. To be delivered July 1, 1984.
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- 80 fast.patrol boats, 20 meters in length. 40 will have 20 mm cannons
and 40 others will be equipped with 40 mm. Delivery January 1, 1985.
- 40 fast missile boats, tonnage 125-130, with two Otomat missiles
(surface to surface) and one rapid fire gun 76 mm. Delivery January 1986.
- Construction will be carried out by the following shipyards: Societe
Ital Cantierri and Chantieas Reunis
- 1,000 in number of Pasdaran will be trained to handle the ships.
- List of requirements under procurement in recent weeks in Europe are
in Annex "A." They are intended for the Pasdaran army.
- Pasdaran's importance can be noted from a remark by Khomeini: "I
wish I was a Pasdar."
DIVISION AMONG MULLAS
Top ruling mullas are divided in two groups:
1.
Khamenei
Moussavi
Mahdavi
(president)
(prime minister)
Kani
Moussavi Ardabili
2.
Hashemi Rafsanjani (the speaker)
Islamic Republic Party
Montazeri (Ayatollah)
The first group is stronger but the second group has the backing of fanatic
terrorist organizations behind them. This indicates more assassinations in the
future.
Among Khomeini's tactical mistakes was the crackdown on Ayatollah Shariatmadavi,
which stripped the latter of his title, for alleged cooperation with former foreign
minister Ghotbzadeh's coup against Khomeini. The fire has remained under ashes
and the fundamentalists in the streets are divided. In recent unrest in the holy
city of Mastad, the religious leaders' opposition against Khomeini was clearly
seen. In the crackdown against demonstrators, scores of political prisoners were
taken out of jails and executed in groups in various sections of the city.
Ghotbzadeh's trial was to begin on July 10, 1982, but has been postponed because
of the possible invasion of Iraq.
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Despite the intimidations of executions, the resistance of the people
continues. No Mullah today dares to appear in public. They are moving in bullet
proof cars -- ambulances with heavy guards. Last week one of the few top ranking
Ayatollahs still alive, named Sadoughi, was assassinated. In another attempt to
kill Khomeini's son, his driver and escorts were left dead but he escaped the
death trap again. The top government members such as president, prime minister,
etc., use glass tables and glass chairs to reveal hidden bombs that can be planted
at any moment.
AZERBAYJAN AND KURDISTAN
There is unrest in Azerbayjan and war in Kurdistan. An ammunition and arm
depot has been attacked and looted in Tabriz. The tribes to the north of the
Kurdish zone in Western Azarbayjan terrified about their fate, have been united
in recent months and taken positions in the mountains. As a result a strip of
land some 80 x 10 to 20 kilometers along the Turkish border area has been practically
freed, allowing ease of movement and the setting up of resistance in border areas.
The tribes are asking for arms and financial support. In case they do not get it
through Western oriented dissidents, they will look towards leftist Kurdish
organizations and such as the "Democrats" and "Kumeleh." This will allow the
Kurds to move up and fill the gap, linking the USSR border in Maku and cutting
Turkey from Iran.
NEW COUP ATTEMPT
Last week Iran announced the discovery of a new coup attempt. Many officers
have been arrested. Among those arrested, a colonel named Azar Dehghan, was
alleged to have tried to form a military government.
LIBERATION MOVEMENTS
National Liberation Forces: Consisting mainly of members of ex-armed forces,
paramilitary, some tribes. They all look towards the west. Unfortunately most
of these activities stem from the corrupt elements of the ex-regime and the clean
elements lack support. Main liberation activities are in Turkey, Europe, and U.S.
Council of Resistance: Kurdish Democrat Party (socialist leftists): Kurdish
Kumeleh Party (communists); Mujahedeen (Rajavi) and Bani Sadr (ex-president).
They are mainly leftists and financially very well supported, the origin not known.
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CONCLUSION
The Khomeini regime will not survive. So far they have maintained their
grip by initiating events such as the U.S. embassy takeover, war with Iraq, and
non-stop executions. For a corrupt, backward and criminal regime there indeed
is a limit to survival by sitting on bayonettes and glass chairs and tables. So
far the sole beneficiary has been the Soviet Union with the destruction or
perversion of three main obstacles: Iran's western-oriented one-half million
man army; Iranian nationalism; and religion. The Soviets have paved the way
for their historic dream -- a national goal that is stated under Article 4 of
the November 1940 secret treaty between Molotov and von Ribbentrop: "The area
south of Baku and Batum in the general direction of the Persian Gulf will be the
aspiration center of the Soviet Union."
As to Khomeini, biology will help history sooner or later to remove him from
the scene. There are no factions or personalities to replace him except the
highly organized Tudeh Party and associated groups. In strategic sense Iran today
is the combination of Makinder's Heartland and Mahan's area of historic influence.
The idea of her turning into a Cuba or Ethiopia with her central location and
40 million population is thinking about unthinkables.
If the revolution survives for another year or two, their destructive nature
cannot stagnate but instead will penetrate in every direction to the extent that
even Turkey and Pakistan cannot be immune with Russia waiting in the wings. (Turkey
is the only Moslem NATO country.)
Iranian mullahs time and again have emphasized that they do not recognize
international boundaries and it is their duty to export their brand of revolution
to other Islamic nations. This year they are going to send along pilgrims to
Mecca,-- 30,000 of their trained elements.
In the words of Khomeini, "All Islamic nations must accept the Iranian brand
of government under religious rule (ve]ayat-e-faghih). Our army of 20 million has
the duty to enforce that." So far, 3 million have completed military training
(they claim).
Hashemi Rafsanjan, the speaker, recently said: "Arab nations must deny their
aid to the west. They must destroy their pipelines. They can do it easily as
they do not need foreign exchange. They have abundant reserves. The United States
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will not use force as it will result in destruction of oilfields, creating a major
economic catastrophe in U:S. and other western countries."
A glance at the recent issues of Teheran's major papers, Ettelaat and Kayham,
which are under control of the leftist elements, reveals their way of thinking.
Saudi Arabia is the number one target. They have used the most osbscene language
against King Fahd and, of course,'-the United States is bitterly attacked
throughout the pages, especially for the killing of 72 top members of the regime
on June 28, 1981.
In my earlier writing I mentioned that in contrast to what has been appearing
in news media, the Islamic revolution of Iran will not stir up the Moslems of
southern Russian states. Thanks to the horror and backwardness of the Iranian
revolution, that possibility has died for years to come. People from Baku to
Bukhara have seen and read enough on their TV and news media. Soviets, on the
other hand, are watching carefully, putting all blame on U.S. In the Iran/Iraq
conflict they will shift towards Iran the way they shifted from Somalia to side
with Ethiopia a few years ago. This trend was shown in last month's visit of
Taria Aziz, the second man in Iraq, to Moscow in the cool treatment he received.
Reports indicate that even Pravda's hint that "Iran's crossing to Iraq will
indulge other countries in war" was followed by a nod and wink to Iranians. In
short, with the present situation in Iran, time is on the Communists' side and
gradually they will emerge as the saviors of the people against the worst tyranny
in recorded history. The Afghanistanization of Iran is well underway. Soviets
recently have hinted "we want Iran only to be a Finalnd on our southern border."
RECOMMENDED
- Immediate policy decision before it is too late and things get out of our
hands as it did in the catastrophe of 1979.
- Action in analyzing the existing situation, enemy capabilities rather
than his unorthodox intentions.
- Organize a viable system of resistance with an honest, reputable leadership.
Have something effective in hand against all evil leftists inside and outside.
- Update plans of action in every area: political, psychological, economical,
and military, for every contingency. Special emphasis should be put on operations
from the sea, the regime's soft underbelly.
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- Hurry and wait rather than wait and hurry. Act decisively when it is
time. It can be done. -
I offer briefings, planning, and execution of operations.
10
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ANNEX A
Equipment either purchased or to be purchased for Pasdaran:
AK47 - RPG7 - various types of Soviet-made mortar 106 rifles
Argentine tanks:
TAM - TANK Argentino mediano
VCTP - Vehichello de combat transporto de personel
VCTM - Vehichello de combat transporto de mortaro
(An Italian middleman named "Seratore" is in negotiation with Pasdaran to sell
the above tanks.)
Communication Equipment: (In Europe)
VRQ 301
50
PRC 77
500
VRC 106
500
GRC 12
500
PRCCP
2000
Fund allocated - $51 million
Night Vision:
8000 (3000 revolving for machine guns and rifles; 5000 for heavy equipment, hand
held, etc.)
Gas Masks:.
8000
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