EL SALVADOR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000802170004-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 4
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For-Release 2006/051 DP84B00049R000802170004-5
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8 February 1982
El Salvador
The military situation in El Salvador remains relatively
stalemated: prospects are for a continued war of attrition,
which over time may favor the guerrillas because o .f continuing
economic decline.
-- The damage sustained by the Salvadoran Air Force will
prevent the military from staging the massive sweep
operations that characterized their efforts last year.
Instead, they are conducting smaller-scale search and
destroy missions to try to keep guerrillas off balance.
-- While some guerrilla leaders may entertain hopes for a near-
term general offensive to secure a "liberated zone," we
believe that.shortages of arms and logistical problems would
prevent the insurgents from holding on to such a zone.
-- Nevertheless, they will continue to attempt to expand
present areas of control and disrupt the 28 March election.
Current and projected activities of insurgent forces in this
regard are designed for psychological as well as military impact,
and thus include stepped up attacks on power lines, gas storage
facilities, and other infrastructure; raids on military
installations, small towns, and outlying neighborhoods of key
municipalities; and assassination of public figures.
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 Approved For Release 2006/05/04: CIA-RDP84B00049R000802170004-5
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We believe that the elections will be carried out fairly and on
schedule. Despite continuing differences between the Christian
Democrats and the co-governing military, the government has
improved its effectiveness and its confidence during the past six.
months.
-- The electoral process continues to gain momentum; seven _
parties are inscribed and campaigning. The 3-man Central
Elections Commission has been revamped along more non-
partisan lines; highly respected independent council
president Jorge Bustamante remains in place.
-- The strongest parties remain the co-governing Christian
Democrats and the old official National Conciliation Party
(PCN)--these two groups are expected to split the lion's
share of the votes. The Christian Democrats have held a
slight advantage in popularity and organization, but the
conservative PCN appears to be gaining ground.
-- 60 legislators from the 14 departments will be elected to
form a constituent assembly; their duties will include
rewriting the 1962 constitution, setting a date for national
presidential elections, and appointing a new provisional
government. f
-- El Salvador's political future will depend to a large extent
on the success of the assembly in carrying out these duties
and on the international credibility of the results.
Failure of the Christian Democrats to maintain their central
role probably will ruin chances for the government to win
support away from the radical left and thus perpetuate the
war.
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