DCI BRIEFING NOTE: POLAND

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000601730020-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 14, 2007
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: January 7, 1982
• Content Type: MISC

Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP84B00049R000601730020-8
TOP SECRET
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
7 January 1982
Information as of 1000
DCI BRIEFING NOTE: POLAND
The Soviet soft currency trade credits granted to Poland are
worth $1.6 billion in 1982, about $400 million less than last
year.
-- The credit will allow Poland to finance imports of
Soviet goods such as crude oil, natural gas and pig iron
that they could not buy in the West because they do not
have hard currency.
The Kremlin realizes that, with'the economy in disarray
and additional Western aid unlikely, it must provide
substantial material assistance to avoid economic
collapse and civil unrest.
-- The trade protocol does not mention any hard currency
credits, but the Soviets granted about a $1 billion in
such credits in 1981. Moscow will continue to avoid
making a commitment to cover Poland's Western debts
because it would be a further drain on:the USSR's own
weakening, hard-currency position.
-- The Soviet leadership must assume that its public will
resent economic aid to Poland--particularly food aid--
but this will probably result only in increased
grumbling.
The Poles have made substantial interest payments in the past two
weeks but admit they were still short $250 million on 31 December
in meeting the terms of the 1981 rescheduling agreement;
- a press report indicates that the amount is now down to
about $200 million; most banks report that the Poles
still are not current.
We have no new evidence to judge the level of resistance'-to
martial law, but we believe that there continues to be
considerable passive resistance.
- Solidarity leaders still at large are circulating more
Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP84B00049R000601730020-8
 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP84B00049R000601730020-8
appeals for passive resistance.
-- Stiff sentences continue to be meted out to strike
leaders as a deterrent.
-- According to
the greatest regime concern at the moment is e
universities.
The internal party purge continues with a new series of
indictments against former senior officials, including an ex-
deputy premier.
-- Those ousted include several liberal delegates to last
surrmer's party Congress and perhaps a hardline
provincial party leader.
-- Regime is trying to give the appearance of steering a
middle course, but purges probably weighted against
liberals.
The church and the regime are making little progress toward
establishing a dialogue.
-- The church is still pressing for release of the
detainees, an end to martial law, and lifting of ban on
Solidarity, but gives the impression-of preparing for a
long contest.
-- The regime is exploiting the church's opposition to
violence and fear of a Soviet invasion=to discourage
church support of resistance to martial law.
-- The Pope's apparent decision to go ahead with a planned
visit to Poland in August may be intended to calm the
populace as well as put pressure on the regime to ease
harsh martial law restrictions.
Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP84B00049R000601730020-8