CENTRAL AMERICA- -TALKING POINTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000601650003-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 5, 2007
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 15, 1981
• Content Type: MISC

Approved For Release 2007/06/05: CIA-RDP84B00049R000PPdff003-6
SECRET
15 October 1981
CENTRAL AMERICA--TALKING POINTS
NICARAGUA
Current
? Marxist-Leninist Directorate of Sandinistas in virtual full control.
s New secret police, new army/security forces, new mass organizations.
? Democratic groups still exist and with help could be a more effective
opposition. They include: democratic labor unions (70,000 members),
business federations (60,000-90,000 members), churches, some media,*5 parties.
Military Buildup Continues
? Well-armed security forces, 19,000-24,000.
c 25 tanks, plus 40 to 80 on the way.
? 16 new military facilities.
c Clear plans for jet fighters--3 airfields, pilot training.
? Full support to guerrillas continues--arms, training, funds, covert action.
Probable Trends
? Arrival 550 Cuban elite troops may portend further Cuban troops there--
same Cuban units were first into Angola.
? 17 MIG-21s to Cuba, reports of F-5s from Vietnam--may be new air force
EL SALVADOR
Current
? Guerrilla forces - about 4,500 plus 6,500 part time; about 2,000-3,000
wounded and killed in 1981. Continuing attacks on the government and
economy; receiving good arms supplies.
? Government - about 25,000 forces; casualties in 1981 about 2,200.
- coalition holding together; helped by the 15 nations' support.
Probable Trends
? If current pattern continues, most analysts see stalemate in 1982.
? Some believe with continued strong Cuban/Nicaraguan support there is a
50% chance of victory for the guerrillas.
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 Approved For Release 2007/06/05: CIA-RDP84B00049R000601650003-6
SECRET TALKING POINTS, PAGE 2
Current
? Guerrillas - sharp growth from 250 in 1979 to about 2,200 today.
- attacking people and the economy.
? Government - security forces about 15,000.
- new effort to improve control of forces and become more effective.
- problem of extreme rightist violence destroys moderates
politicizes indians and reinforces international isolation.
Probable
? If El Salvador falls, there is little chance that Guatemala would be able to
cope with the new strength of the extreme left (Cuba, Nicaragua, El Salvador)..
Otherwise, there is some chance depending on events in the region and internal
policies.
HONDURAS
Current
v Government - movement toward restoration of constitutional government;
November 1981 elections; cooperation with El Salvador,
Guatemala.
? Extreme Left - unity meeting in Havana, mid-September; was followed by~
upsurge in terrorism.
? Clear Cuban/Nicaraguan intention to destabilize Honduras in order to prevent
it helping against the guerrillas or being a base for operations against
Nicaragua.
Probable
? Nicaragua has entered Honduran territory a number of times.
? Cuban-manned radio monitoring equipment listening to Honduras.
? Without further help, likely that extreme left guerrillas will grow in
strength and pose a threat similer to that in El Salvador within two years.
CUBA IN CENTRAL AMERICA
Current
? 6,200 Cubans in Nicaragua, including about 2,300 police/military personnel.
? Active, continuing the pattern beginning 1979; confident of success.
? Ready for military action to help Nicaragua--if US forces do not oppose.
Probable
? Preemptive expanded military, political propaganda help to all revolutionary groups.
? Possible efforts to subvert Panama, Belize.