TALKING POINTS ON LEBANON SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000601490067-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 19, 2007
• Sequence Number: 67
• Publication Date: June 11, 1982
• Content Type: MISC

Approved For Release 2007/11/19: CIA-RDP84B00049R000601490067-4
NOTE TO: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM : Charles E. Waterman, NI0/NESA
SUBJECT: Talking Points on Lebanon Situation
New Factors
-- The ceasefire appears to be holding, although there are
unconfirmed press reports of isolated Syrian-Israeli clashes.
-- The ceasefire does not include the Palestinians, and the
Israelis continue to bomb Palestinian positions in Beirut as
well as in other pockets in the south where the Israelis
have established control. PLO leader Arafat says his troops
will observe the ceasefire, but some PLO leaders are resisting
-- Units of Syria's Third Armored Division -- part of the elite
strategic reserve -- were headed toward the Lebanese border
prior to the ceasefire, but there is no evidence that
they crossed into Lebanon.
-- Two additional IL-76 Soviet transport flights arrived in
Damascus today, bringing the total thus far to four such
flights. It still is not clear whether they carried equipment
or personnel.
Basic Trends
1. What is evolving in Lebanon now are three large separate geographic/
ethnic areas, each influenced by separate authority:
-- An Israeli-Maronite dominated area extending roughly from
Jubail in the north (the limit of Maronite territory) to the
Israeli border in the south, and to the crestline of the
mountains overlooking the Biqa' valley. The strengthened
Lebanese "central" government will hold undisputed sway here.
-- An area of continued Syrian dominance in the central and
northern Biqa' valley, and some of north Lebanon proper.
the Israelis do not mind seeing this area essentially
separated from the central Lebanese government and under
continued Syrian control. There is historical precedent
for this situation.
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-- A predominantly Sunni Muslim dominated area in Northwest
Lebanon, specifically centered on the city of Tripoli.
The Israelis, and some Lebanese Muslims, would like this
area joined to the new central government. Continued Palestinian and
Syrian presence here remains a problem.
2. The Israelis essentially consider the current ceasefire as between
themselves and the Syrians, not the Palestinians. Continued fighting
reflects both this fact, and that Israel intends no significant armed
Palestinian faction will remain in the new Lebanon. They do not care
if armed Palestinians exist under Syrian control on Syrian or Syrian
dominated territory (i.e. the Biqa).
3. Immediate implications for US policy are as follows:
-- A mechanism for Israeli withdrawal initially to the 40
kilometer line, and assumption of authority by strengthened
central Lebanese authority, should be evolved. Arab world
equities require this.
-- We should be prepared to tolerate a continued Syrian presence
in the central and northern Biqa', even if ties of this area
with central Lebanese authority are loosened. The Maronites
also find this prospect tolerable.
-- We encourage by all possible means assertion of control, by
the strengthened (or internationally reinforced) central
government, of the weakened Palestinian elements remaining
in Beirut.
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