COLUMBIA: INTELLIGENCE OVERVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R000400680011-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 14, 2007
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: November 22, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP84B00049R000400680011-7
I I
Central Intelligence Agency
22 November 1982
Colombia: Intelligence Overview
Foreign Policy: President Betancur is attempting to implement a
nationalistic and Third World-oriented foreign policy that demonstrates
Colombia's independence from the United States. Occasional bilateral
strains will occur as Colombia requests formal membership in the Nonaligned
Movement in 1983 and moves toward warmer relations with both Cuba and
Nicaragua. Nevertheless, the President's actions to date--including
Colombia's siding with the US in the UN on the Puerto Rican question and
the attempted expulsion of Israel--suggest Betancur will not substantially
alter Colombia's traditionally pro-Western orientation.
Insurgency: President Betancur recently signed into law a restricted
amnesty, but it is unlikely to end Colombia's deeply rooted insurgent
problem. Although some guerrilla leaders appear willing to form legal
political parties, others have refused to lay down their arms. Cuba has
supported some Colombian guerrilla groups since the 1960s, but aid levels
have fluctuated. Cuban support to the M-19 apparently dropped off sharply
after a large Cuban-trained rural strike force was overwhelmed by Colombian
security forces in March 1981. Cuban support will undoubtedly continue,
but will in our view remain cautious.
Drugs: An estimated 75 percent of the marijuana and cocaine used in
the US during 1982 will either originate in, or transit through,
Colombia. Current US-Colombian anti-narcotics cooperation probably will
continue, but strong domestic opposition and Betancur's desire not to
appear to be yielding to US pressure make it unlikely that Bogota will
agree to any herbicidal eradication program. Drug exports from Colombia to
the US have been linked to Cuba, but since the discovery of the Johnny
Crump/Manny Guillot case last year, credible evidence of Cuban involvement
with Colombian narcotics trafficking has been lacking. The Guillot case
seemed to indicate that the main value to the Cubans of their link to
Guillot was his ability to supply the M-19 with weapons and supplies.
The Economy: Betancur inherited an economy in recession, plagued with
relatively high unemployment, 25 percent inflation, an unprecedented $90-
120 million fiscal deficit, and a $1-1.5 billion current account deficit.
Real GDP will be no more than 2.5 percent this year. Foreign debt will
remain manageable at about $10 billion by yearend. Betancur has not yet
put together a coherent economic program, although he has established
protectionist trade and investment policies, financial reforms to
strengthen the banking sector, and a tentative wage and price support
formula for austerity purposes.
25X1
25X1
cFrPFTI
Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP84B00049R000400680011-7