EAST ASIA AGENDA FOR 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83T00951R000100110030-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 17, 2007
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: November 30, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
NOTE FOR THE DIRECTOR
SUBJECT: EA Agenda for 1983
30 November 1982
Senior Intelligence Community managers
working on East Asia have a tradition of meeting
informally for lunch once a month. At our
meeting of 27 October, the SNIO, the DIO, the
Director of East Asia of INR and I decided to
identify for our principals the key intelligence
issues coming up in 1983 in East Asia and support
the list of issues with a calendar of major events.
We have also prepared a few recommendations for
collectors and analysts. If you wish to talk
with members of the luncheon g it can be
arranged at your convenience. and
will also be invited.
cc: DDCI
C/NIC
Da (1d Gries
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NIC 9701-82
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
30 November 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH : Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM . David D. Gries
National Intelligence Officer for East Asia
Charles DeSaulniers
Defense Intelligence Officer for East Asia and Pacific
Thomas Land
SIGINT National Intelligence Officer for Asia
Wever Gim
Director, INR/East Asia and Pacific
SUBJECT : East Asia Agenda for 1983
1. East Asia should remain relatively stable in 1983. Nonetheless,
potential leadership changes, Sino-Soviet relations, uneven economic
performance, and adverse military trends will test bilateral relations with
several countries.
2. As a consequence, intelligence collection and analysis will have to
address these broad subjects in 1983:
-- Leadership changes. Japan's Nakasone is not likely to make
significant changes in policy toward the US. The possibility of a
return to Labor Party rule in Australia and New Zealand, however,
could result in decreasing military cooperation with the US. The
leadership of China, Taiwan, North Korea, Vietnam and Burma is in
transition with continuity of existing policy uncertain for years
beyond 1983.
-- Sino-Soviet relations. The dialogue between Chinese and Soviet
leaders could lead to improved trade relations and possibly to some
reductions in forces along the border, but major differences are
likely to persist over Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Chinese
support for resistance forces in Kampuchea, and other issues.
-- Economic performance. East Asia will continue to grow faster than
other Third World areas, though Indochina and the Philippines are
notable exceptions. North Korea's foreign debt problems will not be
resolved. Japan's trade balances and surplus in current accounts
will continue to cause friction. Chinese economic growth will be
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erratic and the US role in it, especially in petroleum, will be
significant. Technology transfer will be an issue of increasing
importance: US to China; Japan to the USSR, China and North Korea;
and Japan to the US and China.
-- Military trends. Most military trends in East Asia will remain
adverse, as growth and modernization in the Soviet Far East, North
Korea, and Vietnam continues to outpace military programs in
neighboring countries. The North Korean military buildup and two-
front war strategy will remain the most dangerous threat in the
region. Japanese military capabilities will continue to fall short
of US expectations.
4. A more detailed calendar for East Asia in 1983 is attached.
David D. Gries:
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1. Japan
A. Issues
- growing high technology competition
- trade imbalance and non-tariff barriers
- defense spending and military capabilities
- development of Siberian resources with Japanese
capital
- transfer of military-related technology to US
- leakage of military-related technology to USSR
B. Expected Events
January Tanaka Verdict. Former Prime Minister Tanaka is
almost certain to be found guilty of accepting bribes
from Lockheed. The announcement could have a major
effect on the LDP. Sentencing later in 1983 will
have an even greater effect and could seriously
weaken Nakasone.
January Nakasone Visit. The new prime Minister will visit
Washington and try to ease differences over economic
and defense policy.
April Economic Summit in US. With the best record of
economic performance among the summit countries,
Japan will be sensitive to criticism of trade
balances and trade barriers.
June Diet elections. Elections for the House of
Council ors must be held in late June or early
July. Elections for the House of Representatives may
be held sometime during 1983 if the Prime Minister
decides to call for them. The new Prime Minister
will probably call an election sometime during 1983
in order to establish his political credentials
before Tanaka is sentenced.
June-Aug Security Subcommittee (SSC) Meeting. Annual US-Japan
policy consultations on defense are scheduled during
this period. The 1983 SSC will be the first since
the US asked Japan to step up efforts to meet its
expanded defense goals by 1990. Technology transfer
issues will be important.
June-Dec Budget Decisions. The ceiling for the FY 1984
defense budget will be set in June, and the actual
budget will be decided by the Cabinet in late
December. This will be the first budget reflecting
the joint study on sea lane defense agreed to at the
1982 SSC.
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2. China
A. Issues
-- ground rules for technology transfer to China
-- US arms sales to Taiwan
-- political succession; party and governmental
reorganization
-- Sino-US strategic cooperation
-- consequences of more normal Sino-Soviet relations
-- future status of Hong Kong
B. Expected Events
1983 VIP Visits. Premier Zhao Ziyang will probably visit
the US after a visit to China by Secretary Shultz;
SecDef also may visit China and the President may
include China in his East Asian trip itinerary. A
long range US policy towards China must be
articulated.
Leadership Changes. Deng continues to orchestrate
his own succession. There may be a large-scale
change of provincial civil leaders and commanders of
military regions and districts. Huang Hua's
replacement by Wu Xueqian may result in additional
personnel changes in the Foreign Ministry. Some
Party elders may retire or die.
Feb Sino-Soviet Talks. Discussions will continue,
possibly heightening US anxieties. Improvements are
likely in cultural, trade, and other politically non-
sensitive relations.
Party and Military Reform. Deng may run into
difficulty as he continues to replace party and
military hardliners.
May SSBN. China's first nuclear SSBN should begin sea
trials and a new SLBM storage area should be
completed.
July Missiles and Space. China may launch its first
domestic communications satellite and may test an
ICBM at extended range in the open sea.
Jul-Aug Military Deployments. An out-of-area naval task
force may be formed and make its first foreign port
visit, perhaps to Pakistan.
Military Equipment Acquisition. Beijing may conclude
a major arms-related deal e.g., ATGMs) with the
West, probably involving a coproduction/technology
transfer arrangement.
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3. Taiwan
A. Issues
Reunification/reconciliation with PRC
Succession to Chiang Ching-kuo
US arms sales
Economic growth
Taiwan's nuclear capabilities
B. Expected Events
Premier Sun will strengthen his position as Chiang Ching-
kuo's likely successor
Taiwan will continue to press the US for assurances of
support and to test the arms sales limitations implicit
in the Sino-US Communique of August 1982
Taiwan will attempt to obtain advanced weapons systems
from non-US as well as US sources
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4. North Korea
A. Issues
-- Military buildup
-- North Korean military strategy
-- North Korean economic difficulties, including default
on foreign debt
-- Political succession; emergence of Kim Chong-I1
-- Sino-North Korean relations
B. Expected Events
Jan-Mar Military Exercises. Increased North Korean readiness
Nov-Dec and forward deployment will reduce decision time for
South Korean and US commanders. The manner in which
exercises are likely to be conducted will further
obscure warning indicators.
--- Military Buildup. Mechanization of selective
infantry units will progress, expansion of the Navy
through domestic production will continue, and
acquisition of additional Chinese aircraft (including
MIG-21s) may occur. Libya may also become a source
of weaponry for P'yongyang.
Leadership Succession. The grooming of Kim Chong-I1
as Kim I1-song's successor is expected to continue in
1983.
Sino-North Korean Relations. High-level official
visits may indicate the extent of future cooperation.
Economic Difficulties. North Korea will continue to
have difficulties servicing its foreign debt.
Continued arms sales may provide badly needed hard
currency.
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5. South Korea
A. Issues
-- Internal stability
-- Adverse trends in military balance with North Korea
-- State of economy; labor and investor confidence
-- North-South unification initiatives
-- Illegal export of US-licensed weapons systems
-- Relations with Japan
B. Expected Events
Japan. Talks on economic aid package will resume.
Jan-Mar Reunification. Additional ROK reunification
initiatives can be expected but without result.
Mar-Apr 15th Security Cnsultative Meeting. This annual
conference is the most senior regularly scheduled
consultation between two countries and covers all
aspects of the security relationship.
Mar-May Universities open. Student demonstrations likely to
occur.
Apr US-South Korea Economic Council Meeting. Discussion
of full range of bilateral economic issues.
19 Apr Anniversary of Student Uprising. Commemorates 1960
uprising against Syngman Rhee. Police will exercise
stricter control over student demonstrations.
Apr-May Exercise Team Spirit. Largest annual ROK-US military
exercise.
21 May Anniversary of the 1980 Kwangju Uprisinq. Anti-
regime and anti-US demonstrations likely.
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A. Issues
-- Political solidarity on Kampuchea policy
-- Support for resistance forces in Kampuchea
-- Disputed off-shore claims
-- Refugees
-- US bases in the Philippines
-- Role of Australia and New Zealand on security of
ASEAN
-- Contrasting views on China as a threat
B. Expected Events
Feb US-Philippine Defense Consultations. Philippine
Defense Minister Enrile will visit Washington for the
first session of annual bilateral defense talks at
the ministerial level.
Mar Indonesian Election. Parliament will reelect
President Suharto in a routine vote.
Apr Philippine Base Negotiations. Beginning of new round
of base negotiations.
Apr-May Thai Parliamentary Elections. National electins for
lower house will mark evolution toward a broader-
based government.
Malaysian Prime Minister Visit to US. Mahathir is
expected to make a working visit to Washington, but
the date is uncertain.
June ASEAN Foreign Ministers Conference. This year the
meeting will be in Bangkok and should draw
significant representation from US.
Five Power Defense Arrangement. The first of two
Australian Mirage fighter squadrons stationed at
Butterworth Air Base, Malaysia, is scheduled to
withdraw in July 1983. The second squadron is
scheduled to leave in 1986 but may remain. New
Zealand, citing fiscal problems, may decide to
withdraw the infantry battalion stationed in
Singapore. The withdrawal of Australia/New Zealand
forces from Southeast Asia may have a detrimental
psychological effect on the ASEAN states.
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7. Indo-
A. Issues
-- Impact of improved Sino-Soviet relations on Vietnam
-- Vietnam's economic performance
-- Viability of Kampuchean resistance coalition
-- Kampuchea's UN seat
-- Refugees
-- US POWs/MIAs
-- Chemical and biological warfare
-- Leadership changes in Vietnam
B. Expected Events
Offensive Against Resistance Forces. Although dates
uncertain, Vietnamese forces can be expected to mount
operations along the border, probably before the
rainy season begins in May.
Jan-Jun Indochina Meeting. Bi-annual meeting of Indochinese
Foreign Ministers enunciates general lines for
diplomatic moves on Kampuchea. (Indochina Summit is
due to be held by end of 1982).
Oct Refugees. US Congressional hearings on refugees will
include Indochina.
Sep-Oct UNGA Vote. Annual vote on Kampuchean credentials and
the ASEAN resolution on Kampuchea. No change
expected.
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8. ANZUS
A. Issues
-- Leadership changes in Australia and New Zealand.
-- Defense cooperation with the US including joint
facilities and access of nuclear-powered ships and
nuclear armed aircraft.
B. Expected Events
Australian Elections. Parliamentary elections must be
called no later than November 1983. There is an even
chance that the current coalition headed by Prime
Minister Frazer will be displaced by the Labor Party. A
Labor Government is likely to be less supportive of US-
Australian defense cooperation.
New Zealand Elections. Parliamentary elections do not
have to be held until November 1984, but the current
National Party government of Prime Minister Robert
Muldoon has only a two-vote majority in the legistature
and could be overturned at any time. A Labor Party
victory could pose minor problems for the United States
because of party opposition to the visits of nuclear-
powered ships and support for the creation of a nuclear-
free zone.
Jul ANZUS Meeting. The meeting will be held in Washington
this year.
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9. Soviet Activity in East Asia
A. Issues
-- Economic and military assistance to Vietnam; Soviet
use of Vietnamese bases
-- Growth of forces in the Soviet Far East and the
Soviet Pacific Fleet
-- Japanese trade and investment in the USSR
-- Soviet subversive activities
-- Illegal technoloty transfer to USSR
B. Expected Events
Feb Sino-Soviet talks will continue, possibly leading to some
improvement in bilateral relations-
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10. Other Areas
Jan Brunei Independence. This small, oil-rich sultanate
receives full in ependence from the UK at the end of
1983. The commander of its armed forces has
requested a visit to the US in January. Brunei will
reportedly seek a security assistance relationship
with the US.
Feb-Mar Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit. India will host
NAM Summit which can be expected to include anti-US
speeches by North Korean, Vietnamese, and other
representatives.
Aug South Pacific Forum. The 14th annual meeting will
publicize continuing disagreements with Washngton
over nuclear policies, the LOS treaty, and fishing
rights. Sentiment favoring non-alighment may grow;
Vanuatu recently announced it would permit Soviet
warship visits.
Sep Military Assistance. US Congressional hearing on
military assistance will address South Korea,
Thailand, and the Philippines.
--- Burma Leadership Transition. Ne Win began the
process of transition to new leadership when he gave
up the Presidency in 1981, while retaining leadership
of the Burma Socialist PRogram Party. This
transition process should continue in 1983, albeit
slowly.
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